Fuel protests were a tactical masterclass and may have set the stage for more

The fuel protests show that a certain sector of workers still has the capacity to bring the country to its knees. In a world where many workers complain that their power has been eroded, last week was an example of the effectiveness of brute force.

In industrial relations, bargaining power is everything. In recent days, an ultimately asymmetrical war played out across the country. On one side you had truckers and farmers, a reasonably small part of the workforce, with their tractors and 16-wheelers. The other side: the far greater power of the State.

As the battle lines were drawn, the Red Cow roundabout became Ireland’s Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint and source of the State’s weakness. By identifying bottle necks on the transport grid, a much smaller force managed to bring the much larger power to heel. Tactically, it was a masterclass. The big questions are where it has taken us and could it happen again?

One concern is that by capitulating and throwing money at the problem, the Government has set itself up for a repeat performance in the months ahead. What better leverage do protesters have than the months of the EU presidency, when Ireland will be putting on its finery for the swanky visitors? We all know that the one thing the Irish establishment fears is being “shown up” in front of the posh neighbours.

In this “good room thinking”, Ireland brings its guests into a metaphorical good room, where everyone is on their best behaviour. No one is allowed to upset the pretence that we use the good room every day when in fact it is kept for special occasions. During the presidency the whole country will be turned into the good room, with us keeping up appearances as calm, contented citizens. What an opportunity for mayhem! When the black Mercs are whisking European bigwigs in and out for summits, a few tractors and trucks at essential arteries could derail the show, opening the Irish State not only to charges of incompetence, but to the thing they hate most, ridicule.

Remember, the State has bought peace only until July. The temporary fuel subsidies begin to be phased out in July, precisely when the EU presidency is in full swing. What if oil prices remain high because there’s damage to Gulf infrastructure or another crisis hits the region? Knowing your enemy’s weak spot is critical for any victory, so why would the farmers and truckers alliance not bring the place to a standstill again to get more money, knowing the mortification those blockades inflict on a State that is trying to portray Ireland as a high-tech, high-income, trading entrepot – the ultimate 21st century European success story?

This is the problem with throwing money at any problem. It buys a bit of time but not much more. Once public money is committed it is virtually impossible to rescind meaning that public spending in good times, when money is plentiful, tends to lead to difficult retrenchment when the economic cycle turns. To put the protest into a fiscal context, the State has committed to spend an extra three-quarters of a billion on fuel subsidies to businesses. Yes, you read right: €750 million within three weeks.

That’s a lot of money, but when you look at developments in public spending over the past few years, it is par for the course. Ireland’s public expenditure has grown from roughly €15.3 billion in 1994 to €133 billion in 2025 – an eightfold increase in three decades. Even allowing for inflation and population growth, the trajectory is striking. Spending nearly doubled between 2000 and 2010 (€26 billion to €61 billion), was reined in via austerity falling to €54.6 billion by 2015. Since then it has expanded by almost exactly 100 per cent in a decade to 2025. Health alone absorbed €25.8 billion in 2025 – which was almost the entire State budget in 2000. State spending on housing grew from €1.2 billion in 2015 to €9.3 billion by 2025, a near eight-fold increase in a single policy area within 10 years, with precious little to show for it.

How does this compare with other European countries?

When we frame this spending as a percentage of national income, Ireland looks like a reasonably prudent country. Government expenditure is 39.25 per cent of gross national income (GNI), placing Ireland below European high spenders such as France (57.3 per cent), Finland (57.7 per cent) and Italy (50.4 per cent), and also below the UK (44 per cent) and Spain (45.5 per cent). But this isn’t the whole story.

The per-capita picture tells a more nuanced story.

Ireland’s general government expenditure was €133.554 billion in 2025, and there are 5,308,039 of us living here. This means that government spending per person is €25,198. This measure – far more accurate than our dodgy national income figures – places Ireland above even free-spending France at €23,300. We are also above Finland (€24,200) and well above Spain (€17,300) and Italy (€20,100).

We spend more than almost all other European countries per head of population and yet our public services lag far behind. Over half of us have private health insurance; doctors visits are charged; Irish childcare is multiples of the cost in other European countries most of whom have State-provided free creches; the housing market is broken resulting not just in ridiculously high prices but in the more insidious fact that tens of thousands of Irish people are living in conditions that are far inferior to their peers in Europe.

I’m talking here about adults living with their parents years after starting work, couples renting bedrooms in houses they share with strangers, people living in places that require long daily commutes from work and spending a huge proportion of their income for that pleasure. These costs push down disposable income so that even those on decent salaries feel they are squeezed.

There are many things right in our country, but our Government and our senior public servants who control spending are throwing money about like snuff at a wake. This week, the same people decided that €750 million could be spent to subsidise truckers and farmers, protecting them from a movement in oil prices that the State has no control over. Now that these protesters know that the State will throw money at them to go away, what are they likely to do?

A hot summer, long late nights and an EU presidency to disrupt. What’s not to like?