“First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out – Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me – and there was no one left to speak for me”.
This beautifully poetic denunciation of the cowardice of the German intellectual class in the Nazi period was penned by Pastor Martin Neimoller, who was initially a supporter of Hitler but became disillusioned early on, created an opposition to Hitler amongst German clergy and spent the war in Dachau.
At its root, this notion of not speaking up for others can be applied in all sorts of situations even situations, including some that are much less terrifying than the Nazi persecution.
Today I am going to talk about the nature of work in the years ahead. This is a critical question and it’s the one that so many Irish parents are faced with when advising their children what to do in life. We often think the jobs that paid well in our day or in our parents’ day are still the ones to go for. But is this the case? And what if many of these jobs haven’t even been imagined yet?
In this article, I will contend that in the past 20 years the industrial working classes in Ireland and elsewhere have borne the brunt of economic change, but even as this was happening underneath our noses, few spoke up for them.
Worse still, the decimation of the working classes and skilled manufacturing classes of Ireland, America and Britain has been called “progress” by those whose lives were unaffected by the closure of factories (such as Waterford Glass), shipyards and mines.
The industrial class was undermined by both technological change and globalisation, but rather than lament this, many people who were unaffected by this social catastrophe labelled what happened from 1980 to 2010 as the “inevitable consequences” of global competition.
However, the next great dislocation will be different.
Changing technology means that the middle classes are about to get it in the neck and it will be interesting to see how they react. The public sector will change forever and the returns to many professions that are now the bastions of the Irish middle classes – such as solicitors, accountants and doctors – will be destroyed by disruptive technology in the years ahead. I wonder will anyone speak up for them? Or will the rest of society be silent as the broad middle class was when the industrial class was decimated here?
The major agent for change will be mobile phones, or at least the emergence of personal computers on our phones and tablets, which will bring technological change into everyone’s back pocket. The instrument of change will be apps which will allow ordinary individuals to do lots of stuff for themselves that in the past had been the preserve of experts from one guild or another, such as the Law Society. Why would you pay for a lawyer to advise you about contract law, for example, when you will have an app to do this for you?
Lots of work that we term “professional” is in fact mind-numbingly dull, repetitive and eminently suited to being cannibalised by machines. Think about the paperwork and form-filling which constitutes lots of legal work, of the tedious spreadsheet-based grunt work that is the bread and butter of many accountants. Could these jobs be done by machines? Absolutely. And it will be cheaper, without doubt.
What about medicine? In a few short years we will have widely available apps that will be able to diagnose our medical ailments much more accurately than the opinions of our local GPs. Will we use these machines? Damn right we will.
Obviously there will always be a need for some medics because lots of us want to talk to a doctor with a good bedside manner because we want them to manage the message about our health so that we “feel” better. But the basics of medicine, the ‘what’s wrong with me’ and ‘what will heal me?’ questions, these are questions that are answerable by machines which will be more accurate than the doctors maybe because doctors are humans with feelings and as a result many find it difficult to tell us what we don’t want to hear.
The world of work is changing and will change yet more.
Estate agents, brokers and professional middlemen of all classes will disappear or at least will have to change what they do to make a crust. Will they go the way of travel agents, record shops and Xtravision?
Remember Blockbuster, the US video rental superstore?
In 1994, Viacom (CBS) purchased Blockbuster for $8.4bn (€6.2bn).
In 2000, the company turned down a chance to purchase the still fledgling Netflix for $50m (€37m). Today Netflix is worth $26bn (€19bn) and Blockbuster is gone.
I am not saying that all traditional professional jobs will disappear in 10 years, but the idea that you will go into a smart respectable office just because you have a few degrees and will be able to ensure a decent living for yourself, as your dad might have done, that’s over.
Interestingly, the jobs that were displaced initially by globalisation – the jobs where people made things – are coming back into vogue precisely because they are hard to do. The master builder, the skilled tradesman, the mechanic who can actually fix things and who can redesign and customise, are now among the safest jobs you can have right now. What used to be dismissed as manual labour, such as a good carpenter, isn’t manual at all. Building a table is actually extraordinarily cerebral involving a myriad of decisions, opinions, techniques and contacts.
Interestingly, our CAO points system reveals a preference on the part of Irish parents. The higher the points, the more kids want to do these degrees and the higher priority those kids’ parents put on these jobs. We still see medicine, law and accountancy high up there, yet these are the professions that may be at risk from technological change in the future.
Who will speak up for the professional class when disruptive technology comes looking for them?
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This is uncannily similar idea to Jaron Larnier’s who owns the future
http://www.jaronlanier.com/futurewebresources.html
A very good article David.
However the Professional classes do not need the middle classes to speak out for them, they have a direct line to the people in charge, to Holy Enda and Happy Gilmore. They can have any technology legislated against using data protection or some other BS argument.
The professions are untouchable with the current political system, however with direct democracy they would be wiped out by the middle class disgust for their corrupt greedy ways.
So is the view that the current ‘working class’ will be the future’s middle class? As someone once said, without a middle class there will only be revolution.
And pray what of economists. Not meaning to sound derogatory but will Artificial Intelligence prove a worthy adversary?
David, For the most part I agree with your predictions and assertions but I have to counter your argument here. While I believe there is a correlation between the loss of primary and secondary workers with that of the “skilled” tertiary workers, there is one key different which you have highlighted yourself. For lawyers, accountants, and doctors, or LADs for short – (misogynist alert!), their skill isn’t their reading of law, or ailments or numbers, it’s the interpretation of those. Johnny Cochran and OJ Simpson, Saurez hugging his doctor when he scored and the current Apple tax dispute are all… Read more »
“Who will speak up for the professional class when disruptive technology comes looking for them?” A lot of disruptive tech solutions are appealing directly to the masses, the majority. Look at Uber and Lyft and the oh so ripe for a buyout hailo cabs :-) Silk road appeals to a large portion of the population who’d rather not deal with scumbags when purchasing contraband that they’re going to buy either way. If governments won’t listen to the masses, no bother, there’s a technological workaround. Software development is no more stable a profession than anything else. It is just as prone… Read more »
Bitcoin’s Promise Goes Far Beyond Payments
http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/04/bitcoins-promise-goes-far-beyond-payments/
Hi, Initially I was illuminated by this but on reflection more depth is required in the analysis. Let me explain; EVERY ONE OF THE TOP BANKERS, POLITICANS, REGULATORS etc who destroyed the Republic is a CHARTERED ACCOUNTANT. From Haughey, to the two headbangers in charge of AIB and BOI during the boom, Bettie bookkeeper, Neary, Seanie ALL of them. If that PROFESSION could be ERRADICATED I would have no complaints. Michael O’Leary on a one man mission to reduce every worker in the State to a bonded serf is a CHARTED ACCOUNTANT. Further more your previous articles stated that the… Read more »
Great article David and very imminent topic. As educators we are faced with the same dilemma, which professions to prepare college graduates for? It is estimated the current college generation will change professions 10-13 times in their professional lifetime – an alien concept to current middle class workers. Many of these professions do not yet exist. (I remember working in the Intercontinental Hotel in Ballsbridge in the 70’s and we did not have an IT department – unthinkable today. So, how to prepare students for these changes? Transferable Management Skills among others may provide answers. Educating students in the concept… Read more »
Excellent, timely article. I’ve been having a discussion by email with “5Fingers” on this topic. Where is he? Probably the security services have warned him off this blog. In Bangalore, the back-office remote scanning and analysis of contract and legal documentation and protocols is already well advanced: as some lurkers who read know as they’re involved in the plan to strip the Irish Middle Class of their livelihoods. And there’s nothing that can be done to stop this process. I know Mr McWilliams has been to the Pearl Valley Delta but it’s the Hive Mind of Dharavi-Mumbai-Bangalore where all this… Read more »
Now, I have just over 2 hours to get my Peaky Paddy Blinder Brummie Boy arse “ship-shape and Bristol fashion” down to Brissl to watch The Pogues mash up The Raft Of The Medusa with us Shire Irish Brissl’n’BrummieBoy massives and then get with the spray-can again inna da 3D massive attack impersonating Bansky. As you do…. It’s a Requiem Service For The Forgotten Irish. The Pogues, hey? Plastic Paddies!!! ROFLMAO! We’ll be sending love, hope and inspiration across the Bristol Channel to our Culchie ancestor’s children enslaved “beyond the Pale”, especially for those boarding the Night Boat to Babylon… Read more »
David, as usual a nice analogy at the beginning and a well written article. However the Holocaust and Progress do not deserve to be lumped into the same boat. The previous career paths of many people will have to be changed in order to provide value to consumers and employers. It can even be argued what value accountants, solicitors, economists(!) etc. provided at the height of their prowess. Even if you look at the medical profession its value would have to be questioned. Anyone with any semblance of common sense would need to be running to the internet and apps… Read more »
Members of Parliament in Ireland are mainly made up of
National Teachers
Solicitors/Barristers
Accountants
Medical Doctors
Real Estate Agents
( more or less in the above order )
I would have thought they should be made up of :
Soldiers ( French Foreign Legion ) – not Dads Army type
Persons with medals of Merit ( Olympic Medalists)
Qualified Political Science Graduates with languages
Extraordinary successful Business Person etc
I enjoyed the article by David however he is tending to fuse too many words together without clear thoughts . He groups the words ‘professional’ to mean a sell by date species ( white collared workers ) and the words ‘master’ and ‘skilled’ ( blue collared ) to mean infallible priest from the Vatican. It is not possible to say that is a clear thought ,Professionals are masters and skilled too however some just cannot show that .Qualifications are passports only and it is the person who demonstrates how good they are on the playing field not the paper they… Read more »
@John ALLEN Your comment about Professionals and Masters being in the business of making the best decisions is just totally off the wall!! Coming out of college with a piece of paper saying your this or that is just total bullshit. They might have studied for 3 or 4 years and come out of college with a degree in this that or the other doesn’t mean that they know the difference between their ‘arse and their elbow’! I worked in the pharmaceutical industry for over 30 years and over those 30 years I saw many a so-called an engineer walking… Read more »
@John ALLEN Your comment about Professionals and Masters being in the business of making the best decisions is just totally off the wall!! Coming out of college with a piece of paper saying your this or that is just total bullshit. They might have studied for 3 or 4 years and come out of college with a degree in this that or the other doesn’t mean that they know the difference between their ‘arse and their elbow’! I worked in the pharmaceutical industry for over 30 years and over those 30 years I saw many a so-called an engineer walking… Read more »
Economics and Politics – no surprise there Tertiary Industry being on the up – forecasted since the early 90’s as far as I’m aware, along with Big Supermarkets, shopping centres etc. in geography class Social Media as a way of communicating -FB, texting etc – yep, prevalent But people love human interaction – they crave it. Hence meetings get more things solved “on-site”, more buy-in to ideas – “on-site”. Presence “on the ground” – usually more effective. Working from home and conference calls are great and can be done effectively, but only when you spend more time in the workplace… Read more »
This video sums it up perfectly:
The End of Business As Usual
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-Yf1u3xD_I
Another great article on the same theme:
Software is eating the world:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460
David mentions Blockbuster and its demise, Blockbusters success was due to the investment in it, in its fledgling stage,by the wealthy owner of Wastemanagement, Wayne Huizenga. Mr Huizenga had built up the Fortune 500 Wastemanagement form its infancy when, as a young man, he bought and operated one waste truck. No degrees, no MA’s, just hard work, vision and courage and fortitude to withstand setbacks. Mr Huizengas success is testament to the fact that Governments do not create jobs, individuals create jobs.
I was just talking about this article to my brother, we both have a business in the motor industry, and we got a giggle when David mentioned in the article above that a motor mechanic is a career option for the future, as we are seeing a different trend emerging! We reckon that in the next few (10) years, we’ll be seeing: (1) Computer controlled self-driving cars that will not be jumping red lights or texting while driving. This will effect two industries, the taxi industry will be a thing of the past once this technology becomes established. Then the… Read more »
Ok, 1. Comparing the holocaust to the normal ongoing trend (since the industrial revolution!) of social change caused by technology? That’s laughable and tasteless. I invoke Godwins Law : http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/godwins-law 2. I agree that all middle-man professions (estate agent, auctioneer, brokers) will be made utterly obsolete by technology. No real loss to society there. 3. I do not agree that doctors and lawyers will be made obsolete by technology. They can be thought of as detectives – taking in a large amount of apparently unrelated information, feeding it through a filter of knowledge, experience and intuition, and coming up with… Read more »
The technology that has allowed giant retailers such as Tesco, B&Q and now Dunnes Stores to introduce self service tills is not just replacing professional jobs, it is also replacing and elimination minimum wage jobs. One assistant can now overs up to 6 or more self service tills.
These retailers are of course only paying 12.5 % CT tax on the additional profits made.
So the State and taxpayer is by virtue of tax revenues foregone as a result of the low CT tax rate subsidising the installation of job eliminating capital equipment.
[…] Irish economist David McWilliam points out how the middle class are the next in line to be disrupted. […]
“Changing technology means that the middle classes are about to get it in the neck and it will be interesting to see how they react. The public sector will change forever and the returns to many professions that are now the bastions of the Irish middle classes – such as solicitors, accountants and doctors – will be destroyed by disruptive technology in the years ahead. I wonder will anyone speak up for them? Or will the rest of society be silent as the broad middle class was when the industrial class was decimated here?” The public sector and the professions… Read more »
Whilst driving to Spain last week, I stopped at a service station for some sleep.The Motorway services in France & generally in Europe are very good for the commercial Driver & I was able to have some decent food , reasonably priced and a shower. This Particular Service station was new & while walking around stretching my legs,I came across a new “Mcdonalds” Restaurant , nothing new about a new Mcdonalds you may think…however on further investigation i discovered it is almost fully automated with just a skeleton staff to “serve” the food…!! you walk in & on the left… Read more »
I have just read the article now. It is a load of absolute nonsense !! Technology is not killing the middle classes, the state tax-and- redistribute to the rich and the poor is killing the middle classes. The biggest problem with the middle class is that have been voting for the useless quisling element in Irish politics who repeatedly vested interests (including the interests of other countries) before the needs of the people. The middle classes are also killing the middle classes with their attitude of let’s have nothing for the rainy day because the done thing is to blow… Read more »
The demise of employment? About time! Beyond the obvious need to make a living, a job is a shameful waste of one’s time. Having spent 30 years in ICT as a consultant I now view a person’s job as a manifestation of an existing systems inefficiency that will inevitably be ironed out with a systems improvement. You only have a job now because nobody has yet bothered their backside to streamline your process, be thankful for the laziness of others. There is no such thing as a skill or an expertise, it is a repeated pattern that can and should… Read more »
Adelaide, you may be interested to know that I spent 36 years in the United States and never took a job. My experience of being a “professional” in the UK and Ireland (a Chartered Accountant) turned me against the whole concept of a “job”.
The difference between me and others who talk the talk is that I actually walked the walk. In 1976, at the ripe old age of 34, I walked away from (lucrative) professional employment, indeed all employment, and never have had a job since. But I have had a wonderful life.
You will have to wait for the book. One thing I will divulge though: I never took a dime from any government, in any way, Irish, British or American. I became an American citizen, in the real sense: I took care of myself. That is the true American way and I loved it, still do. I obeyed every law, never even got a speeding ticket. I never told anybody I was anything that I was not and I paid all my taxes. I got well paid for everything I did which was mainly helping people negotiate legitimate deals in legitimate… Read more »
Morning everyone. Thanks for all the posts. I am just digesting them now. Thanks again. Best David
[…] change is likely to have on traditional Middle Class professions like accountancy and law. Why technology is going to destroy middle class professions | David McWilliams I know technological change is a different subject compared to the topic of immigration been […]
Great Article David. Sorry for coming to it so late, but this one will go on a while. economist.com had a monster online debate on this in january 2014 ‘coming to an office near you’. Office automation is doing away with piles of middleclass jobs and no one has a solution for this .Being an automation engineer, Ive been doing this for twenty years+ (automating stuff that people used to do). You cant stop march of technology, whether its good or bad.Definitely, accountants jobs will be automated. i thought the legal profession had ring fenced itself off sufficiently for now.… Read more »