The Bangladeshi selfie-stick hawkers are doing a brisk trade outside the Colosseum. Local chain-smoking lads dressed as gladiators prey on vulnerable tourists, while portly priests on their annual visit to Catholicism’s corporate HQ take time out from soul-searching.
Even the heavily armed soldiers, there to protect against a potential Italian Bataclan, are smiling in the Mediterranean sunshine. And as it is midday in Italy, everyone is checking out everyone else.
All looks quite normal, chilled out and as it should be.
But it is not. Italy is a country going through what could be described as a nervous breakdown.
After a decade of almost no economic growth, in two weeks Italians will vote in a referendum which will determine what direction this huge country of nearly 60 million people will take. The result will profoundly affect the EU.
Although the referendum is technically about the way Italy is governed, the country is split down the middle in a plebiscite that has come to symbolise something much bigger. Once again, like the Brexit vote and the Trump election, this referendum is about insiders against outsiders. It is about those who are the victims of inequality and globalisation and those who uphold the status quo.
On one side, you have the Italian political elite — the insiders embodied by Matteo Renzi, the youthful prime minister. He represents the people and institutions that have ruled Italy for decades.
On the other side, you have an unusual anti-EU coalition, the Left and the Right — the ‘Outsiders’ — who are united by a common belief that, after 10 years of economic stagnation, there must be another way.
We have the same picture we saw in the UK in June and in the US last week, where an elite is desperately trying to connect with the people and large swathes of the population are saying they have had enough.
In terms of the big picture, the Italian election can be seen as yet another domino in a year of falling dominos. First we had Brexit, then Trump, and the next big one for Europe after Italy is the potential rise of Le Pen in France.
Italy is the triplet in a quartet that will culminate in France, and, in my opinion, if the Italian elite loses on December 4th, Marine Le Pen will win in France.
This is a global phenomenon that can’t be seen in national terms but only in international terms. This is what happens in politics; what starts as a feeling becomes a reality at the ballot box, not least because every election that goes against the elite gives “permission” for the next bunch of popular ‘Outsiders’ to scent victory.
Ms Le Pen has said she will pull out of the euro the morning after she wins. There’s no delaying Article 50 in her book. The Front National’s policy is an immediate withdrawal from the euro for France. In Italy, the two main parties backing a No vote in the referendum, the left-wing Five Star Movement and the right-wing Northern League, both want Italy to leave the euro and reinstate the lira. Right now, the only consolation for the elite is that they are behind in the polls; anyone who wants to win an election may be better off trailing in the polls!
But the reality for Italy (as for many countries, including Ireland) is that the euro has been a disaster. For years Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy, was pre-eminent in fashion, design, sophisticated manufacturing and car-making. All this was predicated on periodic devaluations of the lira against the deutsche mark, which allowed Italy to compete. This was the deal and everyone broadly understood it.
Once Italy joined the euro, this traditional avenue was closed off to Italian industry and it started to become uncompetitive. Italian industry couldn’t compete with Germany and, as Europe’s biggest debtor, Italy began to lose control over its own destiny. Following the last euro crisis, Italy has become, from a macroeconomic point of view, little more than a protectorate of Germany. And it hurts.
Young Italians have less chance of getting a job than almost any other nationality in Europe. Unemployment for the under thirties is running at a staggering 35%. Seven out of 10 Italians under the age of 36 live with their parents and 100,000 educated Italians left the country in search of work last year.
Real wages have stagnated and corporate Italy is not investing. All the while, the debt-to-GDP ratio – the highest in Europe – is going in the wrong direction.
Is it any wonder, with this sort of economic performance, that people want an alternative?
Could Italy turn its back on the EU? Of course it could. In fact, why wouldn’t it? Any country that can change sides in a world war is politically capable of changing its currency, don’t you think?
It’s clear when you are in Rome that something serious is going on. Behind the designer sunglasses, the impeccable three-day stubble, and the beautifully coiffed hair, Italy is deeply divided. Italy is experiencing, as was the case in Britain and in America, a popular insurgency.
Far-off Brussels is firmly in ostrich mode, head stuck in the ground, planning a hard Brexit to teach other “deplorables” a lesson. But what it doesn’t understand is that ‘Deplorable Lives Matter’!
And — worse for the EU that has proved itself to be electorally tone deaf time and again — deplorables vote too.
Mr Renzi, the EU’s man, asked for looser fiscal rules, but Germany vetoed it. Mr Renzi asked to be allowed to bail out his bust banks, but Germany refused.
Now Italy is about to embolden Ms Le Pen in France, and who is to blame?
Clearly not the Italians who are expressing their democratic wish, but the EU officials who didn’t listen to Mr Renzi, their Roman legate, when he looked for help.
As I marvel at the Colosseum, I can’t help thinking that Vespasian, the Roman Emperor who built the Colosseum and conquered Britain in the west and Judea in the east, would never have left one of his own with so little ammunition to fight a popular insurrection.
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Changing sides in ww2 might be easier than getting out of the euro.
Winds of change. The Trumph victory has left much of the mainstream political class and media bewildered. It is their failure to see which way the wind is blowing that will haunt them in coming years in all parts of the West. Other politicians and the media took Trumph literally, but not seriously. The US electorate, those who voted for him, took Trumph seriously, but not literally. So when he said he would build a wall, most of his electorate didn’t believe he would actually do it but that he would crack down on illegal immigration and illegal immigrants. And… Read more »
You wait. Next week the Bangladeshi salespeople will be selling T-shirts written with “Deplorevole e Felice”.
“if the Italian elite loses on December 4th” They will. I wonder Dathi if the Eyeties pull out and default on their debts will the German banks seize all the Italian assets in lieu because if they do it is exactly what Trump will do also. I never thought I would ever write the words I actually feel sorry for Peter Sutherland. I hope your young fella Dathi as well as all the other young fellas in Europe approaching their 18th birthdays aren’t asked to solve the problem for the fat middle aged fucks at the centre of Europe like… Read more »
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
David can longer claim to be writing economic columns, he is writing highly-charged political pieces, of which this is one, a naked political rant against the EU and the Euro. The problem is that he offers nothing to replace either institution, just chaos, which the Anglos will then step in to exploit. Churchill, the old Anglo war god, will be adored and glorified. It is all already happening. Trump and Farage have vowed to reinstall a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office on Trump’s first day. Brexit and Trumpism as a clear attempt to revive and perpetuate the Churchillian… Read more »
Brexit and Trumpism as a clear attempt to revive the Churchillian Anglo-American Empire created by WWI and WWII.This is “Propaganda” WWIII.
https://twitter.com/patflannery
Several points to be noted here. 1) Renzi is far more capable than the Clintons ( rotten with corruption) and Cameron ( “heir to Blair”). Expect him to put up a better fight. Of all the current EU large country leaders, he is probably the only that has any credibility. 2) Italian resentment of Merkel is considerable. As Renzi himself commented the problems in the Italian banking system are a fraction of the scale of DBank in Frankfurt. Merkel might not want to hear it, and she might have produce a denial that is tantamount to an admission, but the… Read more »
Merkel + Hollande = MerDe.
We need to talk about the MERDE model of leadership of the EU.
It is producing policy failure. The entire “more Europe” mantra is a sugarcoating for more control for money over popular interests.
The Merde model has pushed the public debts of Ireland to absurd levels, and is endangering the entire society again.
We need to scrap the MerDe / Merkozy model of policy making. It is failing.
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
Local factors in France will influence Le Pen far more than any external decision in Italy.
Le Pen driving for an ultra nationalism in France, is different from Britain declaring independence from Brussels, or Italy declaring that Brussels is failing.
Le Pen will win and lose based the failure of the leadership of the French state.
In that regard, the best hope for Le Pen is for Sarkozy to re-enter the French Presidential contest.
David, the following comment is very loaded, in respect of where we are going. [ Mr Renzi, the EU’s man, asked for looser fiscal rules, but Germany vetoed it. Mr Renzi asked to be allowed to bail out his bust banks, but Germany refused. ] Merkel bailed out German financial interests, by forcing the Irish taxpayers to pay for the failed PRIVATE SECTOR gambles of PRIVATE SECTOR banks in Irish banking. And Sarkozy achieve the same against us. The same applies with respect to Greece. And Spain. And what followed in each case was re-Ponzification. There already have been bank… Read more »
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
Something to ponder.
Is the EU under attack from cultural communism.
Did the collapse of the USSR result in the export of communism of many shades to the West.
Merkel for instance in Germany.
France always had leanings.
Italy ditto
Greece ditto
The rest of the Eastern bloc whither do they stand? We have an expert poster in our midst who might have an answer.
The USA might be a stretch but how would you determine the day (rhetorical ) that the USA stopped being capitist and started to go over to the dark side.
Greece, Brexit, Trump….?
it’s only a matter of time before the next canary sings
I am beginning to hear signs in the recent speeches of Western misleaders acknowledging there may be a problem with the management and implementation of globalisation. Some of them are beginning to realise they are in danger of losing their popular support. That is the trick for politicians – keeping the oligarchs and the populace onside.
Western populations are deeply disturbed about neoliberalism & globalisation
How it is being mismanaged in favour of markets & corporations at the expense of people and societies.
The pidgeons are certainly coming home to roost throughout the majority of the EU countries and no harm either!! The people of Europe have finally woken up to what the European Union now means. Jean Claude Juncker and his ilk are now starting to get really worried, which is no harm whatsoever!! The next few years should prove to be very interesting indeed!!!
Good comment from JohnTheOptimist here:
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2016/11/11/implications-for-ireland-of-the-new-trump-regime/
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
Thanks David. I didn’t know that Italy was having a referendum. I’m still not clear what it is about, how it came about and is it binding on the Italian government to act upon and so forth. I guess I’ll have to research those details myself. Were you in a bit of a hurry with this or is it just a draft and you accidentally hit “send”? I’ve done that too. Good work. Keep it up.
“”The problem with the modern world is simple. It is in the grip of a great conspiracy, the likes of which have probably never occurred on this scale in human history. The conspiracy is apparently run by a few people who have inherited control central banking around the world and thus are worth trillions. With this money they have created an almost seamless web of propaganda intended to frighten people and drive them into the arms of international government. The goal is a single world order with one justice system, one central bank, one currency, one civil police force, etc.””… Read more »
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/trump-reopening-911-reversing-rome-in-bid-to-be-greatest-american-steward/ “”Of course, Trump has little to do with populism. There is a specific globalist agenda that has been implemented around the world and certainly in America. This agenda involves trade deals that drain away American prosperity; too-low interest rates that create inflation, stock markets crashes and ongoing depression; and a variety of rules, regulations and cover ups designed to concentrate power into fewer and fewer hands. This agenda is what Trump is apparently taking aim at. If he follows through on some of his recent statements and positions we can’t imagine the secret rulers of America and the West… Read more »
‘In 1966 an American family with one breadwinner working full time at an hourly wage could count on having a home, a car, three square meals a day, and the other ordinary necessities of life, with some left over for the occasional luxury. In 2016, an American family with one breadwinner working full time at an hourly wage is as likely as not to end up living on the street, and a vast number of people who would happily work full time even under those conditions can find only part-time or temporary work when they can find any jobs at… Read more »
World’s 7th largest economy in a shambles as it runs out of CASH. People are dying in the lineups. People are being turned away from hospitals as the government made lager bills illegal. The exchangeable “new” currency is not properly available.
This could arrive at a place near you sooner than you might think.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/stunning-scenes-panic-gold-price-skyrockets-india-after-currency-ban
https://stopthesteal.org/obamas-long-farewell-tour-globalism-dying/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/martin-armstrong-warns-we-are-spiraling-toward-civil-war-if-not-stopped
If there is a genuine recovery why is the foodstamp program for the broke families at close to record high participation.?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/food-stamps-still-feed-one-in-seven-americans-despite-recovery
From henrymakow.com . Trump- Have Americans Been Neo Conned ? . . Insight from inside — vis. Henry Makow — the tribe. . . November 17, 2016 . . EXTRACT . “The appointment of Breitbart News CEO Steven Bannon as Trump “Chief Strategist” provides a clue. . … . “SINCE STEVEN BANNON is going to be one of the president’s most senior aides, he and the website he runs, Breitbart News, deserve an unusual amount of scrutiny.” . . … . . Henry Makow talks about neo-zio war mongering nasty John Bolton here ; “I now realize that Trump’s opposition… Read more »
Of course, the following is Russia propaganda ;
But, nonetheless should be educational & entertaining.
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The 5-Minutes of Common Sense videos from Eugenia Gurevich
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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7u5zqSYbLjp-a9nElZnhsQ
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e.g.
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President Trump ! ;
A nightmare of the Ukrainian politicians !
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2UZt1nmlE8
[…] Why Italy is the next country to fall to Trumpism – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliamns.ie) […]
[…] Italy Is The Next Country To Fall To Trumpism (David McWilliams) […]
A few misconceptions about Italy here. – Italy will not be the next country to fall to Trumpism, rather the US are the latest country to fall to Berlusconism. The frustration with the status quo that led in the US to Trump’s victory has been around in Italy for much, much longer – possibly since around 1991. Foreign observers should not take Trump as a paragon and measure all other countries against him, but rather look at how the situation evolved in Italy over the past 25 years and see how other countries might change in the future if they… Read more »
song & music
http://www.smule.com/recording/part-of-your-world-broadway/465280388_773091093
@ Grezegorz, U mentioned Cohn-Bendit above. I recognised that name from previous research. C-B sure “can bend it” when it comes to morals. Here is another cold blow against the politico pedophiles courtesy of a blog that I do not 100 % agree with in their views, but whom I rate as excellent in revealing the abusers of born / post-born children ; However, I await expectantly their investigation of the allegations of Pedophilia against Hillary Clinton & Huma. Previously, Aanirfan has informed its readership of the accusations by Irish-American Kathy O’Brien woman that Hillary Clinton regularly sexually abused her… Read more »
Apropos of Italy ;
.
Of course, the most powerful & pernicious organisation in Italy is not the Mafia etc.
It is the Freemasons.
They run the show.
And, the mafia work for them ;
Although on a long leash.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38418-there-is-a-better-option-than-trump-s-1-trillion-infrastructure-plan
Just print the money. Preferably directly from Treasury at no cost to the government or the national debt and at zero interest.
Canada paid for WW11 that way and the St Lawrence seaway project.
Communism in the USSR, the PRC, Cuba, Vietnam was derived from Stalin. Everybody obeys. There is an emphasis on the proletariat. And it terms to produce a static society, and a certain degree of enforced stability. Communism in the UC Berkeley (not sure about the spelling), Hollywood, the US Democratic party, the Brussel imperial dictat machine is derived from Trotsky. It produces chaos, and enforced instability. The debate ended in the 1920s. The Bolsheviks realised that Trotsky was crazy and destructive to society. Trotsky was the Roberspierre and Murat of the Russian revolution in one person. And it was madness.… Read more »
Let’s hope Pence sends some of his relatives the Shillings our way, we might begin to forgive him for being a Trumpster.
https://twitter.com/patflannery
Cummings demands info on Jared Kushner’s role in Trump transition By DARREN SAMUELSOHN 11/16/16 03:31 PM EST Share on Facebook Share on Twitter A senior House Democrat demanded Donald Trump’s transition team explain what role Jared Kushner — the president-elect’s son-in-law — has been playing in their effort, including whether a request had been made for him join top secret classified briefings. In a letter to Vice President-elect Mike Pence, Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) specifically questioned whether Kushner will be participating in the daily defense, intelligence and national security updates. Cummings also noted that Trump’s son-in-law is legally barred from… Read more »
The Financial Stability Board stated that Ireland has the highest level of shadow banking assets 1,200% (yes one thousand two hundred %) of our GDP. Perhaps one should add another 20% or 30% to get the correct GNP figure. I attach a link of a whistle blower I met in Dublin 5 years ago when he was begging the Central Bank regulator to do his job, instead for doing their job the Banking system set out to destroy his reputation. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-19/what-did-draghi-know-about-potential-loss-and-abuses-italys-largest-bank. The ECB (The Irish Central Bank) stated they will repossess 50,000 homes in Ireland in the next year, no… Read more »
It’s time to consider, I suggest, a renewal of the traditions of American federalism: a systematic devolution of power from the overinflated federal government to the states, and from the states to the people. It’s time for people in Massachusetts to accept that they’re never going to be able to force people in Oklahoma to conform to their notions of moral goodness, and for the people of Oklahoma to accept the same thing about the people of Massachusetts; furthermore, it’s time for government at all levels to give up trying to impose cultural uniformity on the lively diversity of our… Read more »
The electoral college does not legally have to follow the wishes of the population. The members of the electoral college can vote for whoever they wish to for president.
so, it has never happened that the voters wishes were not followed but there is always a first time. Trump could yet be denied.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3wLQz-LgrM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wC42HgLA4k&feature=youtu.be
The results of “Bathhouse” Barrack Obama + “Heck,…” Hillary “… has had more p…sy than even me [ Bill Clinton ]” Clinton ; . EXTRACT . We still have a giant mess on our hands, and the following are 11 very depressing economic realities that Donald Trump will inherit from Barack Obama… #1 Nearly 7 out of every 10 Americans have less than $1,000 in savings. That means that about two-thirds of the country is essentially living paycheck to paycheck at this moment. #2 Reuters is reporting that U.S. mall investors are poised to lose “billions” of dollars as the… Read more »