Are you into cameras? Do you marvel at the quality you can get from the most ordinary models these days?
Or what about the extraordinary technology in normal camcorders? Like me, are you amazed at the quality of images from a bog-standard laser printer?
All these are made possible by Canon, the highly innovative Japanese consumer goods company. Canon, like so many other Japanese companies, was in the doldrums ten years ago, but today it is the market leader again. The man behind the resurgent Canon is a quiet, thoughtful septuagenarian called Michiyo Nakamoto.
Nakamoto is no globalisation-obsessed chief executive warning that, unless people work harder for less, jobs will all disappear to China or Mexico, while at the same time, paying himself a fortune.On the contrary, he believes in keeping as many good jobs as possible in expensive Japan.
His entire board is Japanese, despite 87 per cent of Canon’s sales coming from outside Japan. He is shameless when it comes to putting Japanese workers and interests first. According to Nakamoto, if Japan continues to innovate it has little to worry about. Like any good industrialist, he sees the direct link between productivity, the return on equity and wages.
When asked where did Japan go wrong in the 1990s, he spits out the word “land”. You can hear the contempt in his voice when he remembers the land frenzy that almost bankrupted Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s.The linkbetween land speculation and future debt problems is so well documented that it is amazing we need to re-examine it.
But with our central bank warning this week about house prices, it’s worth examining the land problem in Ireland and how it devalues the currency in our pockets.
Irish banking operates a land standard. The soaring price of land and houses are intricately linked to the profitability of our banking system and as such, both are part of the problem.
Unfortunately, because rising property prices keep the banks looking profitable, the banks have a vested interest in ensuring that the great Irish land rip-off remains in business. The “land standard” is a useful term to explain why credit in Ireland is rising so quickly.The flip side of credit is always debt.
Historically, banks only lent money against gold, otherwise, loosely printed money would soon become worthless. Here in Ireland, land has replaced gold and banks take land or houses as collateral. So, for example, a house worth €300,000 is used as collateral to borrow €270,000 to buy another apartment for investment. The extra €270,000 goes into the system. The golden rule of monetary economics is that the more money in the system, the greater the upward price pressures on all other things.
Thus, the extra cash sloshing around in the system puts upward price pressure on houses because there is too much money chasing too few houses. This makes the original collateral now increase in “value” to €330,000. The bank extends another loan on the same collateral, failing to distinguish the chicken from the egg.
Back in the real world,the only fundamental reason for house prices to rise is if the income from rent is rising. This is not the case in Ireland. Rents have been falling, according to the Central Statistics Office for over 12 months now. If the income from the asset is falling relative to the value of the asset, then we have a problem.
So why does the price not adjust downwards?
Well for a variety of short-term reasons, but mainly because the cheap credit keeps the whole game in business. Yes, there is demand, but this only explains the direction of prices, not the extent of price increases.
History is replete with examples of accommodation shortages. For example, in post-war Germany demand for accommodation was enormous, yet house prices did not increase dramatically because there was no credit.The key in a credit-driven boom is not to be the last buyer.
As long as credit is cheap,the banks will lend. Indeed, the banks are the main reason land prices remain high and the bank’s future is so tied up in land that if they stop lending now prices would fall. Any fall in prices would lead to bad debts, profit warnings, share price collapses and bank takeovers.
No chief executive of an Irish bank would survive such a scenario, so there are good careerist and personal, as well as corporate, reasons for double digit lending to a workforce whose personal income is only rising by 2 or 3 per cent.
Sometimes,we fail to see that banks are simply selling money. Therefore, instead of being the guardians of prudence, the banks can become the agents of profligacy.
And where does all the borrowed money come from? It is not ours in the first place. It comes largely from other people’s hard-earned savings, from the older savings of continental Europe. European Monetary Union means we borrow their savings on the cheap and our banking system trousers the commission.
But forget the land market for a minute and ask what return does the country get from all of our money going into land and houses. Do bricks and mortar generate innovation? No. Once built, do houses generate wages, employment, Vat, income taxes? No. Does investment in bricks and mortar allow Irish productivity and thus wages to rise? No. Does such investment equip us with the skills to compete with Canon? No way, baby!
Ironically, when looked at from the general economic standpoint, money invested in bricks and mortar is actually “dead money” – a term usually reserved by estate agents to describe renting.
If those billions of borrowed euro were diverted into productive rather than unproductive capacity what would happen? First, investment in humans, rather than bricks, would increase our productivity.This raises the return on equity in the country. The greater the return on equity, the more profits and wages that can be paid.
Thus both wages and profits could rise simultaneously.This, surely, is the point of the exercise, is it not? If Irish workers get paid more per hour of work because we are producing more, then we can have more free cash to spend in our free time.
But no, we do precisely the opposite. We invest all we can in land and houses.The opportunity cost of this is lower productivity per worker. This means relatively lower wages than our German neighbours. Lower wages and a much higher proportion of our after-tax take home wage going to rents and mortgages (historically, low interest rates notwithstanding), means less disposable income.
Equally, the huge rise in land prices causes a huge transfer of cash from workers to landlords, for doing nothing and, more egregiously, from the young, who shoulder the debts to the old and middle-aged who own the land. This is not how a modern, sophisticated economy works; it is demographic feudalism.
Mr Nakamoto must be sitting back laughing, because at least he knows there is one country that will never challenge the livelihood of his Japanese workers. “The Irish,” he might say, “we used to worry about them, but they’ve been seduced by the mirage of land, and they will impoverish themselves before they realise that the Emperor is in the raw.”
You certainly raise some very interesting points. I’d be
interested to know in light of this article, have you bought
a house or are you renting?
Worth noting that if 36% of the cost of a house is tax,
then the people who raise long term loans to pay for houses
are in fact transferring long term borrowed money to the
Government for it to use on its immediate consumption. So
your long term loan, and the interest you pay on it,
together constitute interest free national loan given to
the State.
House prices are driven by demand. When there is more
housing, prices will drop. But of course, the government
and local councils do not want more housing being built and
use “planning” and taxation to keep them from construction.
There are approximately 50,000 housing units per year being
built in Ireland, but the demand is for 60,000 or more,
especially near Dublin.
Perhaps when we run out of hotels to house asylum-seekers,
they will be forced to allow housing for the rest of us.
David I have just read you article “Paying A Mortgage, not rent…”. Very Very Very good, I enjoyed it. I believed that house prices had moved beyond an economic footing in 1998. They are still rising!. You are right the root, cause is the Irish Banking System. Perhaps you should write an article to let us know what will happen when the crash comes. Myself and my friends (some employed by those very Banks) often run through scenarios of what the crash will be like. 1) Will there be repossessions ( no way ), will the Banks try to possess… Read more »
Concerned: Land purchase is a great investment for the progeny set as they can continue to “live” forever when their sons and daughters faithfully enshrine the house they finally paid off as a temple to hard work and family values. For the rest of us, buying experiences is about all we can usefully do with our money–the cryogenic freeze whackos notwithstanding. It’s another olden days value set that’s being beaten off the sides of the modern ship of culture like a barnacle and it’s going certainly the way of racism or religiosity in the face of secular humanism. There’ll be… Read more »
A recent story has broken on the headlines of the irish independant re local govt levy on new houses to drive up house prices by 10000 to 28000 euros per house. Opposition parties are up in arms that house purchasers will be footing the benchmarking payments – the article advises. Surely the effect of such a levy is to discourage house builders to supply houses at such times when there are only low profits to be made i.e after a substantial fall in house prices. The levy will not put money in the pockets of potential purchasers to bid against… Read more »
David,
Many thanks for the thought-provoking article. Makes me
think about the statement about Bangladesh being the
country with the highest rate of home ownership in the
world, and Switzerland being the lowest.
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It’s now 2006, and there are still no signs of house prices falling. Estate agents are jumping up and down with glee while people in their 20s and 30s are moving out of Dublin in droves to buy houses in places like Mullingar. A couple I know recently bought a house in Enfield with a 99% mortgage. They face hours of commuting every day and we don’t see much of them any more. Prior to this they were renting near the city centre and walked to work. They were thinner, healthier, less stressed and had a better social life when… Read more »