Yesterday morning the McWilliams’s kitchen table resembled a mini war room. My son and I spread out a huge map of France before us and tried to figure out Paris to Bordeaux in a camper van. We’d been up in Belfast over the weekend and had tried to coax our Nordie family to come with us on a unique united Ireland family football convoy next June.
But even they, proper Prods to a man, scoffed at the idea of exposing their kids to what they called the “Crazy Prods” who follow “Norn Irn”. After a heated discussion on the difference between reasonable Prods and crazy Prods, the idea was dropped.
So we, the Southerners, are going on our own.
As I scoured the map of France, my eyes hit on the city of Saint-Étienne, rekindling childhood memories of the brilliant Saint-Étienne football team and their outstanding captain Michel Platini.
Platini was the best player in the world. He won the Ballon D’Or three times and captained not only Les Verts, but also the extravagantly talented French teams of 1982 and 1984.
Platini has just been handed an eight-year ban for taking a massive and unusual payment from Sepp Blatter. He is appealing this ban.
For those of us who have followed football for many years, there is something shocking about a football genius like Platini being caught up in all this. The likes of Blatter, a career bureaucrat with grubby hands, mean very little to football fans, being emblematic of institutional corruption. In contrast, the case of Platini is a huge surprise.
The fall of Platini got me thinking about why highly successful men can often behave badly and fail to see that the behaviour is bad. Why take huge risks with a nonchalant entitlement? How come Platini sees nothing wrong, where everyone else sees red flags? And why does he bluff and bluster to the end, not realising that the game has changed? Why did Platini, the head of UEFA, the best player of his generation, a man feted all over the footballing world, and a man who could get a table at any Parisian restaurant, do it?
The behaviour of Platini and Blatter in recent weeks has been very similar to the behaviour of extremely well-off bankers who bet the balance sheet of the banks on hugely risky investments and saw nothing wrong. Not content to have almost everything, they want more. Not content to be richer than they ever need to be, high-flying bankers doubled up again, borrowed more, ignored warnings and blew everything.
Why is it that people who are at the very top of their businesses can make such a mess of things and why do so many go along with it?
Traditionally, after a catastrophic debacle, there is an inquiry aimed at making sure that it never happens again. When trying to find answers and solutions, there are normally three ways to think about these financial/systemic failures, whether they are at a bank or FIFA or UEFA.
The first way to think about it is institutional failure. We see there was a failure of regulation. The police were asleep at the wheel allowing people at the top to get away with running the institution like a fiefdom and we conclude the entire mess was systemic failure based on a failure of policing.
The second way of looking at these crises is that the people at the top – or close to the top – were in over their heads. We conclude that they were just incompetent. The amounts of money were too much and they didn’t realise what was actually going on. So the problem is a lack of talent at the top.
If either of these two reasons fit the bill, the solution is easy. If we get better regulators or less incompetent professionals who know what they are dealing with, we won’t have more crises.
But when you look at the debacles in the world of football and the world of banking, we are not only dealing with incompetence on the part of the regulator and the top brass. We are dealing with something else.
The risks were taken, not by men who didn’t know what they were doing, but who knew more about this field than anyone. They had prestigious track records and had been working in the area all their careers.
In fact, when you look closely at both the way Blatter and Platini ran football and the way some of our top bankers ran the banks, it is not a fumbling, insecure incompetence that caused the problems but exuberant, preening over-confidence.
They were so confident that they thought they were doing the right thing, whether it was running FIFA like a fiefdom and doing deals with Qatar to put the World Cup in the desert or, in banking, lending hand over fist. They couldn’t (and still can’t) see they were doing anything wrong.
Maybe this miscalculation, this inability to see the world clearly, comes not from being wrong on occasion, but from being right so often before. Being right results in over-confidence that assures them that they can’t lose. Think about it: if everyone tells you that you are great, you think you are great and you don’t see the dangers all around you.
The study of over-confidence in people (particularly men) in power is a huge field in psychology. Many of the bad decisions taken by these guys come from a gap between how good they think they are and how good they actually are. This gap between ability and perceived ability exists in all humans. For example, when surveyed, the vast majority of us think we are better than average drivers. But this gap is larger the more you are told by others that you are brilliant.
This gap distorts reality and leads to massively stupid decisions that profoundly undermine institutions and stability. Over-confidence leads to an inability to see reality, an unwillingness to contemplate alternatives and a misplaced certainty in your own competence. Think Jose Mourinho.
When I see the once-great Platini appealing UEFA’s ban and claiming a giant conspiracy against him, the over-confidence conundrum comes screaming back into the equation. It’s a major human weakness and it links the behaviour of Platini to dozens of banking/corporate titans who have fallen to earth over the past few years.
Luckily – and I can say this with confidence – over-confidence will not be an affliction that will trip up either set of Irish ‘Boys in Green’ come June.
Corruption Rules
Merry Christmas.
I can live with the fact that a body, in charge of grown-ups chasing a plastic lump around a field for two hours, is corrupt. It makes little difference to the essence of life. If I want I can grab a football, call around others and chase it for exercise. And that is much healthier than sitting in a pub entertaining a fantasy called “us” and “them”, feeding a beer-belly, and starving the intellect. And, as far as I am aware, I am not encuraging corrupt FIFA power-brokers, or indeed the likes of John Delaney. The most hilarious version of… Read more »
So how come none of the banksters got an eight year ban? Or jail? We have the right to opt out of engaging with football,but unfortunately those of us working are paying the price of electing gombeen men to run the country for their fat cat cronies.
I asked our twelve year old who was playing fifa 16 on his playstation why he didn’t go out to kick a ball around with the neighbouring kids. ‘Nah’he says, ‘I’ll stick with the real thing here….’
There is also a similarity, with respect to over-arrogance, with respect to the sub-prime debacle, and the version of dishonest pretence, that nobody would get found out. And indeed something similar, again with respect to real estate mania in Ireland in 2005/2006. Ponzi-scheme asset price speculation bubbles seem to be sustained for years, on self re-inforcing feedback loop of ever larger schemes of aggrandizement and glory hunting. With low interest rates (thank you, Jean Claude), fiddled GDP accounts (thanks Suds and the boys in GSucks), and all sorts of incentives for real estate speculation (the norm since the 1990s), an… Read more »
The only irish banker who went the USA languishes in prison. Seanie and Fingers played it cute. Nollaig shona gach duine.
Why is it that people who are at the very top of their businesses can make such a mess of things and why do so many go along with it? Is this a joke? Profits at the 5 largest US banks have doubled in the years after the GFC than were achieved in the years prior. From 25 billion 2002-2008 to 41 billion 2009-2014. They have made out like bandits BECAUSE the regulation worked exactly as it is intended to. Are the only options that we are allowed to consider really a failure of regulation,just incompetence or again over-confidence? In… Read more »
The obsession with this FIFA thing is rather perplexing, I mean why is everyone suddenly claiming to be surprised by it? This sort of corruption is rampant in all sports where there’s a lot of money involved. Of course, on the one hand there’s clearly the issue of the 2018 World Cup in Russia, that the US/UK are desperately trying to get cancelled, but on the other is the fact the the newspapers, TV, and radio in these countries have become so sadly pathetic, useless, and sleazy. While the media and politicians are swelled with righteous indignation about a few… Read more »
Firstly – David buy yourself a GPS device and dump the maps. Secondly – Where there is a lot of money there is a lot of corruption. That is an indisputable fact of life and it doesn’t take a genius to figure it out. So look around the world and you can see the unbridled corruption in plain view. Look for cocky overpaid men and women (don’t be fooled by David’s mostly men comment, it’s true now but it will change in time) Follow the Money. David you can help to stop some of the corruption. Shine the torch light… Read more »
A Zimbabwe own goal after a series of disastrous games played with Mugabe as head coach.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/zimbabwe-becomes-beijings-first-official-african-colony-after-adoption-chinese-yuan
Happy christmas to all.
Irish are 2015 Failures at shouting STOP. Nobody should ever apologise for the state again. As Bill Black put it – Bankers and politicians have NAMES. The following are my own opinions. Ego needs and self-actualisation needs are never fully satisfied. Irish Bankers, health care unions, media and politicians needs are never fully satisfied.Their increase of appetite grows by what they feed on. For Bankers it is about abusing the customer to the maximum until someone shouts stop. Bonus payments and golden pensions are also what they feed on. Justification and financial logic is never required as they are over… Read more »
The answer to your question, Mike is the same as my first post.
Corruption reigns.
The only solution is a thorough cleansing from top to bottom.
It is a revolutionary action needed.
Nobody will achieve a solution until as was said. ” they are a den of vipers and by
The answer to your question, Mike is the same as my first post.
Corruption reigns.
The only solution is a thorough cleansing from top to bottom.
It is a revolutionary action needed.
Nobody will achieve a solution until as was said. ” they are a den of vipers and by God I will root them out”
Tony Corruption Rules if 2016 Irish politicians choose to talk plastic patriotic blarney about 1913 and 1916, but yet completely ignore the abuses of their OWN time. This is a time where borrowers of grossly overvalued mortgage debt are being hounded to death and offered no way out of financial anxiety. Politicians that caused a social housing crisis and homeless crisis are forcing firesales of property that should have been restructured.Sick old people are treated like pawns by a health system that puts the needs of the customer last and the health unions first. In a recent interview on Ray… Read more »
“We ALL have a duty of care to shout STOP.” True enough. It will not happen until the people take to the streets as those we thought might say something are deafeningly silent. David is quiet so I lose hope anything meaningful will come from these columns. People thrown on the street or without food will be yet another economic statistic. But then statistics lie and are manipulated. The US with 48-50 million on food stamps is a sign of economic recovery to him as they do not count as under/unemployed. Acting is his preferred field and that is what… Read more »
Tony I think David is a nice man. He is also a very nice economist. I think that in 2003 he was a different David and a different economist. He mentioned that houses at ten times the average wage were a confidence trick. He acknoweledged that mortgage debt was going way beyond “Real Value Debt” in 2003 Ireland. Since 2009 there has been a lot of “mental health damage” and financial health damage done to Irish families by the central bank, Irish banks and politicians that are ignoring the “False Value Debt” that needed to be restructured by Irish Banks.… Read more »
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