This time last year, only a few of us were suggesting that Brexit was likely. The mainstream view was that it couldn’t possibly happen. But it did. And so too did Trump. When this column argued in June that “we should prepare for President Trump”, one or two local talk shows chuckled and sneered at the mere suggestion that such a creature could inhabit the White House. But he is there.
In December, the Italian electorate revolted against its government – again the view of ‘sensible’ people was that bolshie Italians would see reason. But they didn’t.
Back home, this time last year, it was widely considered Fine Gael had done enough to return more muscularly to power. Instead, badly mauled, Fine Gael limped over the line, propped up by Independents.
Are all these phenomena in very different countries – miles away from each other with profoundly different electoral systems and deeply contrasting social models – in any way related?
Do ideas – as much as people, goods and capital – move freely across borders? Does the election of a new leader with radical views in one country embolden the electorate in another country? Does the rise of a different sort of politician in one country give the electorate of another country the ‘permission’ to vote for a radical politician even if conditions on the ground or solutions offered are not quite the same?
The next stop on this political whirlwind will be the Netherlands next month; and the big one, of course, is France. In less than 70 days, France goes to the polls and only an idiot would rule out Marine Le Pen’s chances.
It was the great French romantic poet and novelist Victor Hugo who declared: “You can resist an invading army; you cannot resist an idea whose time has come.”
Do you get the feeling that we are living through epochal change, where one great idea is about to be replaced by another? Are we experiencing the irresistible force of an idea whose time has come?
The big idea whose time has come is nationalism and a desire to insulate a population that is threatened by globalisation. The big idea is not fixed or immutable, but rather is a scorecard of legitimate grievances that working people feel. This means immigration to some, job insecurity to others. It means cultural dilution to some and capacity pressure on the welfare state to others. It means a fall in living standards to some and a rise in inequality to others. Although it’s unlikely to be a universal panacea, electorates are looking for the state to protect them from these forces, which are generally being blamed on globalisation.
People want to be protected by a strong sovereign state from the threats that they feel are now ubiquitous, so protectionism replaces free trade, localism replaces globalism, borders replace openness, and nationalism and the heartland replace multinational and one-world solutions.
Ms Le Pen represents the alternative and she is a powerful political force, articulate, reasonable and highly electable. She wants France to leave the euro the day after she gets elected, she wants to tell the EU Commission to back off and she wants to kick-start French industry by allowing the French government to explicitly buy French manufacturing goods and to subsidise French industry. Both EU competition law and EU state-aid provisions prohibit such policies.
For Ms Le Pen, it is up to the EU to change, not France.
For Ireland, the most immediate consequence of a Le Pen victory would be the euro. She believes – and rightly so – that the euro has been a disaster for France and a boon for Germany. If she sticks to her commitment to print French Francs, the euro is over. The euro without France is not the euro because it ceases even to satisfy the basic pretence that it is a pan-European currency. Without France, there is no political point to the euro because remember, the currency was conceived as the monetary facilitator of political integration.
A decade ago, the elites of southern European countries calculated that if the prize was European political integration (the big idea at the time), that the price of German economic and monetary domination would have been worth it. If France now heads off on a nationalistic path, the whole EU integration plan is in tatters. Remember, this could all come to pass before June.
What happens then?
The first thing to happen in the case of a Le Pen victory is that money will flood out of all non-German members of the euro. Italy will face a massive bond crisis, presaging default fears. Greece will be gone. Spain and Portugal will experience similar bond crises, and so too will Ireland.
The reason for this is that a bond is a 10- or 20-year IOU. For Ireland, the bond states that the Irish State will pay the investor back a certain amount in euro. But if the euro itself is breaking up from the centre, why would anyone bet on an English-speaking periphery country where ties to the UK and the US – two countries where the administrations are implacably opposed to the EU – are extremely strong?
The ECB will try to keep the entire enterprise together by buying all the bonds that scared investors are dumping. But liquidity in the non-German eurozone will dry up. There will be a run, not on the banks, but on the remaining countries of the euro. This flight of capital will be most violent in southern Europe, but it will be dramatic here too. In this case, there are two options.
The first is a lurch towards a deeper political union in the remaining euro countries around Germany. This will be done in an effort to staunch the financial haemorrhaging by stating clearly that Germany will backstop a smaller European Union of countries like the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria, without France.
Is Anglo/American Atlantic Ireland a likely candidate for that Teutonic League? Not really. And anyway, why would Germany bother with this when, after all, it is really interested in a single market of 350 million to sell its goods. German voters didn’t abandon the Deutsche Mark for the promise of some shrunken political union. Meanwhile, the Latin countries will protest their faith in the euro, but no one will believe them or at least no one will risk money and bet on them remaining within the euro.
The second option is that central banks get busy printing new currencies, just in case. With France already out of the euro and Britain out of the EU, the question would be, who’s next? What do we do in this case? Well, we’d certainly need to have new Punts printed.
You may think this scenario fanciful. I wish it was and ultimately it will be if Ms Le Pen doesn’t win.
But look at the odds. Today, Paddy Power is offering 9/4 on Ms Le Pen. Neither Brexit nor Donald Trump had such short odds this far out from polling day.
Granted, it might not happen, but it could easily. Ireland’s monetary future and our financial security is now down to the whims of angry French voters. Surely we should be prepared or have a plan, don’t you think?
Maybe we should start by letting them win at the Aviva in two weeks’ time.
Bring back the Punt! Great feckin currency. Rhymes with bank manager!!! Hahahahaha!
‘The Media Coverage on Syria is the Biggest Media Lie of our Time’ — Flemish Priest in Syria
By wmw_admin on February 9, 2017
Weird Duk — Ron Paul Institute Feb 4, 2017
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=146915
The caption is wrong ;
It was actually 13 million or thereabouts who were genocided by the Bolsheviks who controlled the Rus populations of USSR.
FFS Truthist. Start a blog or stay on topic.
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“Although it’s unlikely to be a universal panacea, electorates are looking for the state to protect them from these forces, which are generally being blamed on globalisation.” The problem for the Irish electorate is who do the vote for to achieve this goal? All the main parties are pro EU to the man, with every fibre in their being including right down to the fibre in their under ware. The only party that is EU skeptic is direct democracy Ireland. The electorate and the mainstream media have spoken they do not want change! They are happy in their nappys being… Read more »
Who would benefit from a disunited Europe?
Interesting article on Russian Psy Ops.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/apr/09/kremlin-hall-of-mirrors-military-information-psychology
Not everybody is talking up a French withdrawal from the Euro and its consequent demise.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-12/even-a-le-pen-win-won-t-be-enough-to-break-up-euro-banks-say
On a very different note, I was very surprised when David McWilliams said on Today FM that “Insomnia” by Faithless was “probably the best dance track ever.”
That??????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s all right,
but
How about “Pump Up The Jam” by Technotronic, or “We No Speak Americano” by Yolanda Be Cool, or “Daddy Cool” by Boney M, or “Hot Stuff”, or “Billy Jean”, or “Twist And Shout” by The Beatles, or “Jailhouse Rock” by Elvis Presley, or “The Charleston” by composer/pianist James P. Johnson, or “Giovinezza”? And I was not entirely serious about the last one…
The big idea is not fixed or immutable but is rather a scorecard of grievances: I think it is rather fixed and has always been there. It has been very important to a lot of people but as the public megaphone is in the hands of the ’embrace change’ merchants you never heard anything about it. Immigration to some, job insecurity to others, cultural dilution to others, concerns about the capacity of the welfare state to others, falling living standards to others, rising inequality to others. Again I don’t agree with this at all. It isn’t a fragmented collection of… Read more »
The French look after no. 1. The average French punter has serious concerns about EU “migration” policy. BTW – David Referring to somebody as a “creature” is a terrible way to refer to someone. It implies that they are sub human. Not only that it disses the opinions of a lot of people with differing opinion on many things but with one thought in common to elect the best man for the job. Maybe it’s the creatures who are in power and facing kicks up the hole from their own electorates that should be referred to as creatures. By their… Read more »
I don’t think La Pen will get elected, she’s too right wing for such a socialist country, but if she does get elected then everything will have changed and changed utterly. France is at the core of the EU and it is at the core of the EU problems. Their politicians have a very selfish, self serving attitude to the EU. They have repeatedly failed to meet EU budgetary targets and in doing so undermine the credibility of the EU. The EU has done nothing about this. The EU needs to get it’s house in order before it pushes for… Read more »
Grow up lads.
If the nightmare scenario you paint comes to pass (and I think it could) the rational course for Ireland would be to nationalise the banking system, including the Central bank; which must be placed under the Dept of Finance, where it always should have been. With the neoliberal globalist project dead in the water there will be no reason to kowtow to the private bankers (including the Central Bank – that’s what the euphemism ‘independent’ really means). Ireland should create a sovereign currency backed by the Irish nation (not a private currency backed by debt as we have now). And… Read more »
Hi,
This article scared the life out of me. The article is flawless from my perspective. 70 odd days to get out of here.
The Irish politicians will try and stay with the euro till the last. If so then the youth of this country will have no hope because just like greece both our own politicians and the European ones will tolerate even greater emigration out of Ireland than the current record breaking levels and an unemployment rate starting to skyrocket again.
Might go to Iceland?
‘ER IST WIEBER DA’ = (LOOK WHO’S BACK) – Netflix
A must see movie about the return of Adolf Hitler 70 years on.
Made by Germans in German with English subtitles.
A very black comedy with a very bleak topical message.
My sidekick is from the South of France and I’m reliably informed that it’s going to be a close run thing. It will very much depend on the youth vote and how they see their future. They are far more open to outside influences than their parents and will have to balance this against possible better economic prospects in a Le Pen closed society. It’s going to be a difficult choice because youth unemployment is very high and job security is at an all time low – both parents, with higher degrees, are on 1 yr contracts. Our government would… Read more »
This is my assessment of the situation.
The big idea whose time has come, is actually NOT nationalism – it is state accountability.
And it is not a new idea. In fact it is the basis of the entire relationship between the individual and the power structures that seek to live off the individual, in a parasitic manner.
the problem for those that are part of the system, is that they need to describe it as something that covers up what is really going on. Hence it is defined as anti-globalization.
It really is, that simple.
Le Pen won’t win without toning down the anti-Semitism.
End of
Le Pen is NOT a threat to Ireland, economically. Fillon is a threat to Ireland economically, because he represents the “threat of economic competence in France”. Le Pen and Macron do NOT represent economic competetence. In fact both represent a continuation of the failed policies that have retarded France since Mitterrand decided to over-extend the French state, and over-centralise France (again). Le Pen is a threat to the Euro-crats and the lobbyists. She is also a destablising force on the entire French system, ranging from the CAP to the benefits system to the way France is run. Trump and Le… Read more »
[…] Seriously remarks. Which BTW, contribute nothing to a discussion, they are only PERSONAL opinions. Ireland’s financial destiny is in the hands of angry French voters – this is what we mus… Ms Le Pen represents the alternative and she is a powerful political force, articulate, […]
It is possible that Wilders might do well in the Netherlands, as a variation of Pim Fortyn. It will have some thread of the outrage that followed the murder of Theo Van Gogh. It will also resonate with the fact that Ayaan Hirsi Ali had to flee the Netherlands because the authorities were not able to protect a free speaking former muslim, from expressing her mind (and inspiring the women to rebel against their religious instructors). And it may resonate with the Charlie Hebdoo affair. Wilders himself is under continual police protection. Incidentally, he is also pro-Israel (unlike Le Pen).… Read more »
@ person with Moniker “Jaysus”,
Undoubtedly, u picked a moniker blasphemous & objectionable to :
Christians [ Ireland is according to Census still a predominately Catholic / Christian nation, & we have many foreigners living here who also are Catholic, & also we have a very sensitive Protestant minority & also sizable Orthodox Christian minorities ]
Muslims
Ur contributions have been useless as long as I can remember.
U are trying to “police” posters on this blog ;
And, for no justifiable reason.
Pat Flannery, I hope that Grzegorz does not devalue his emotional energy [ vis. dispense it too readily to silly twits ] any more ; including He again rushing to be magnanimous to u for actual most valuable posting about the larger significance of Securities versus Derivatives & what each actually is & how they are related & interact. Having already done so, & u resuming to wrong him ; ==> He should not do so again. And, u also gravely wrong me too Pat ; Unjustifiable. Further to ur very interesting discourse with Tony Brogan recently, in which u… Read more »
1 of the greatest dishonesties of intellectual discussion in Ireland has been the neglect to state that it is the Freemasons who run Ireland ;
North
South
At least in France, people will admit or even declare that the Freemasons control France.
Why does not Irish main-stream media not even acknowledge the power of the Freemasons in practically every country ?
Ponzi-nomics. It works as long as somebody keeps shoving something into the bottom of the pile, the keep it running. When the momentum stops, it falls down. The PE ratio on the Nasdaq is nonsensical. Government bond rates for France have not reflected reality, for nearly two decades. Madoff was right. It is all a Ponzi-scheme. He was a small time operator. There has to be a manipulation of public discussion, and information flow so that people will not make choices that disrupt the ponzi racket. And that means any decision that favours their own future, over the future of… Read more »
It is interesting to note that many journalists/economists talk about a European country about to “possibly” leave the Euro zone but, as far as I know, in the actual EU treaties, there is no clause/articles that permit a single country from the euro zone to get out of the single currency as opposed, for example to the now famous article 50 that needs to be invoked when a country decides to leave the political union. In brief, if you want to get out of the Euro zone, then you must leave the Union itself. In this view, A political solution… Read more »
Pollution is the problem lads – not fantasy global warming.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/13/extraordinary-levels-of-toxic-pollution-found-in-10km-deep-mariana-trench
It’s possible to poison the planet to death without changing the climate.
Thanks for all you comments today. Interesting reading. D
Mr. Key, Against a backdrop of Ponzi-nomics, consumerism, borrowing over-reach, and relentless propaganda about the “value” of overvalued assets like shares Facebook, Beijing apartments, townhouses in Knightsbridge, new sports cars, rugger season tickets, and French government bonds – anybody who says “it as it is”, is a threat to the system’s extended/overreached asset valuations. The media reaction is entirely predictable. Nothing has been fixed since 2008 – with the possible exception of outlier economies like Hungary and Spain who both dealth with productivity, and debt. [ Even Ireland’s wreckovery is a mirage – the debts are still enormous, and productivity… Read more »
Re ; Michael Martin — Leader of Fianna Fail — being “talentless” ;
He has proven himself to be talentless by his gross incompetence as Minister of each government department that he was in charge of :
vis.
Education
Health
Foreign Affairs
And, he has absolutely ZERO charisma.
But, he is very sneaky ;
But never sneaky for Irish Nation’s benefit.
To hold Fianna Fail together is no great achievement ;
Fianna Fail knew better to lie low & not in-fight.
They are a machine prior to Me-hole Martin.
http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/2017/02/13/
Coldcore’s Mark O’Byrne puts McWilliams on the #1 economic blog in the world–www.lemetropolecafe.com
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2017/02/13/europe-bureaucrats-war-on-cash-001010
”In Germany, 79% of transactions are done in cash. Many there aren’t going to take restrictions lying down. Some see the war on cash for what it is – bureaucrats using the lever of fear to once again ratchet up controls and restrict privacy.
The EU bureaucrats may just see the day when citizens stop using paper euros to make payments, but not because of the restrictions they hope to impose. It could instead be the result of the EU and its common currency being dumped.”
It is long time passed to plan the new currency.
En situ autre mer Bd Victor Hugo Nice Contrasting the conventional arguments re: success of Marine Le Pen in the forthcoming elections I have hastily concluded she will not win. The Euro will remain in-tact. My reasons have nothing in common with Anglo Irish or French editors on this subject. I have better reasons. We have seen in the national editorials comparing a sweeping change to Europe with the same reasons that Brexit happened and the election of President Trump. Nothing could be further from the truth. Brexit happened because the islands of Britain and Ireland wanted to remain as… Read more »
Meanwhile in Italy – more messing by politicians. https://mishtalk.com/2017/02/13/renzi-promotes-renzi-ism-as-alternative-to-trump-ism-le-pen-ism-grillo-ism/ Renzi now thinks he can “out-Beppe” Beppe-the-clown. Grillo was a professional comedian before he became a politician. In some ways he STILL is a comedian – who simply takes himself too seriously. There are people in Italy, who will tell you that all Italian politicians are comedians. The central problem IS political. It is NOT instability, or changes of the governing parties. It is actually a lack of serious leadership, and an obsession with inintrigue. There is a continual level of stability, and a continaul level of incompetence. Oddly enough, Beppe-the-clown… Read more »
Only Fillon can save the Euro. Macron/Le Pen do not differ in respect of the broad thrust of their economic policy. Both are promising numbers that simply do NOT add up. The are promising a continuation of the unsustainable. But, that central planning policy approach, with an emphasis on control rather than freedom is what is being advocated here. And for that reason, the media in Ireland can NOT contemplate Fillon. Fillon understands that France has a state largesse problem. The last thing that Official Ireland needs is a political leader providing a good example to others, on how to… Read more »
Greece is on the way out. UK jammed the door open. It is still ajar for others.
Greece’s actions may be forced on then because of lack of decisions.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4222990/Greece-considers-ditching-Euro-favour-dollar.html
Report on how Finland could abandon the euro.
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=147088068082019073110105089116064005121089060019020042124009065093098072070103092004121005007014114035049006016095109102123008000015036032060091090103064126015027102050082049125007112104079099065118003118070123124015030095008097031120089095088021068069&EXT=pdf
”Ireland in 1970, when the Irish economy operated without commercial
banks for a period of six and a half months”
http://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Irish_Banking_Strike_of_the_1970's
14 February 2017
72nd anniversary of the slaughter-bombing of the city of Dresden
By Michael Hoffman
http://www.RevisionistHistory.org
http://revisionistreview.blogspot.com/2017/02/72nd-anniversary-of-slaughter-bombing.html
Because, u need to up ur people-skills regardsless if the Euro breaks up ;
MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE RANCH ; FEBRUARY 10, 2017 TPP is Not Dead: It’s Now Called the Trade In Services Agreement EXCERPT Think the ideas behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership or the so-called “free trade” regime are buried? Sadly, no. Definitely, no. Some of the countries involved in negotiating the TPP seeking to find ways to resurrect it in some new form — but that isn’t the most distressing news. What’s worse is the TPP remains alive in a new form with even worse rules. Meet the Trade In Services Agreement, even more secret than the Trans-Pacific Partnership. And more dangerous.… Read more »
@ Grzegorz
Goy Guide to World History
Part 3
Spain Holland Slavery Poland & the Pale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ7T9VzwasE
Goy Guide to World History
Part 4
Frankfurt School, ISR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSKIM75UXaI
@Truthist
I was loath to post this, but here goes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Jewish_violence_in_Poland,_1944%E2%80%9346
I’d love for you to meet face to face with the Israeli guy well settled here in Ireland who told me about how real violent events in those horrific years almost wiped out his family. And that what prompted me to find that link having heard about the reality and trauma in real life.
In future though you’re best ignored, Me auld keyboard warrior. !
THE EU CONTINUES TO STRIP OUR RIGHTS AWAY
-> IN SECRET
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/767556/European-Union-CETA-Brussels-MEPs-vote-Canada-EU-trade-deal
-> NO DEBATE ON RTE
-> JUST DISTRACTION
@ Tony Brogan,
Here is Gerald Celente whom u have recommended often on this blog before criticising President Trump.
WW 3 coming fast with Trump ;
OK, not as fast as would be with Hitleree Bonham Clinton ;
But, nonetheless “fast” !
We placed hope in Trump retracting from War ;
But, he has been a Con-Man.
HEADING
Jeff Rense and Gerald Celente – Has Trump Duped America ?
Shocking Developments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l906ezuIXps
Apropos of the other Anglophone-Francophone super-rich in resources vast jurisdiction with single currency ;
Canada
Ref. de facto Francophone zone ;
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/no-internet-fidel-castro-isnt-trudeaus-real-father-the-canadian-prime-minister-just-really-really-looks-like-him
Ref. de facto Anglophone zone ;
https://www.henrymakow.com/when_illuminati_shills_fear_ex.html
Hire the Drug Dealer to advise u how to pay ur debt to the same Drug Dealer
Come to think of it ;
Did not the Irish State do basically the very same when it “hired” the IMF to advise / loot this nation [ bar the Nomenklatura, vis., Civil SERPENTS, Corporate Ireland, Professional Class, Irish Banksters, Landlords, “Consultants”, inter alia ] ?
HEADING
#Greece Plans To Hire Rothschild As Debt Adviser
http://bit.ly/2eHRRMp
https://twitter.com/NewsBud_/status/831683344123334657
@ Mr McWilliams,
Could you consider adding a Filter button for users to avoid having to scroll down through abusive nonsense. This would allow a user to select those whose comments are irrelevant.
I read this blog because of contributors like Deco, Tony Brogan, Pat Flannery…
Following my unaswered question why the whole Garda Commissioner scandal only came to light now, when Taoiseach was in Poland speaking on Brexit – and why the Irish media only asked the Taoiseach in Warsaw questions related to this new-old story, this is what I wrote for The Irish Independent in May 2016 – 10 months before this became a main story in the Irish media: “It utterly jargogled my brain when I saw the title of the article on the Garda Commissioner (“Who is next in line as this witch-hunt goes on?”, 26 May). But first, some positives. Ms… Read more »
Trump so far. What is happening in the US is very dangerous. Trump was elected democratically but a concerted effort is being made to undermine his presidency from the start. No honeymoon period. There is a definite increase in white male supremacy sentiment and it’s not just among the poorer classes. Trump didn’t create this sentiment but he did feed it and it got him elected. Trump will be reelected for a second term because the people who have alienated his electorate haven’t learned the lesson that they are out of touch with the plain people of America. America is… Read more »
MEP Barrage by Farage as he warns that the messages of 2016 will be doubled in 2017. That is what must be planned for.
https://youtu.be/Ah_gpjrrIKA