Driving past the RDS last week, as the city played host to bigwig foreign ministers, gave me a feel of what Dublin is going to look like for the next six months. The place was, to use the new terminology, ‘locked down’, as is now necessary when someone as important as Hillary Clinton rocks into town.
Get used to it, because Ireland will take over the EU presidency on January 1, and Dublin will be coming down with black Mercs, rushing here and there carrying very important public servants from urgent meeting to urgent meeting.
Obviously, Ireland should take the opportunity to place a debt deal for our citizens squarely on the agenda because, after all, the EU presidency demands that the host country sets the agenda for that crucial six-month period.
This is a great chance for us and, given the deal the Greeks got – yet again – last week, it would be a travesty if we didn’t seize this occasion to advance the cause of our own citizens. However, given past form, it seems that Ireland’s leaders are intent to make sure that our country is the one that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
The one thing we need to appreciate, which runs counter to much of the received wisdom right now, is that Germany is not strong. It is, in fact, weak. Data published last Friday revealed a German economy – the so-called strongest of the weak – that is in fact more fragile than anyone expected.
The Bundesbank cut its forecasts for the Germany economy next year from growth of 1.6 per cent to a barely noticeable 0.4 per cent. This process reflects the fact that Germany’s amazing industrial strength lies in its exports, and its export buoyancy depends on the rest of Europe buying its goods. If the rest of Europe is not buying German goods because of austerity, then who will Germany sell to? And if Germany can’t sell to anyone, and Germans don’t want to buy the stuff they make themselves, then they are in a bind.
This will be the economic background noise to the next few months. Downside risks to economic consensus forecast are likely to affect investors’ appetites for all sorts of assets. Apart from the economic risks, there are other risks which the high-powered foreign ministers meeting in the RDS tried to obscure, but didn’t.
The tightening security around Ballsbridge the other day, and the presence of so many foreign ministers and strategists, prompted thoughts of what else might dominate the six months of Ireland’s EU presidency, and how these geopolitical events might frame any economic discussions Europe might attempt.
Trouble in the Middle East is likely to kick off again next year, and it may embroil many of the supposed friends that lined up in the RDS last Thursday.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza gave us a taster of what could happen in Syria on a much bigger scale. The great powers are increasingly on opposite sides, in the same way as they were nearly 100 years ago in Sarajevo at the beginning of World War I.
Remember, the Austrians dragged the Germans into the conflict, so that the Russians wouldn’t come in on the side of the Serbs. Then the Serbs went and smashed the Austrians unexpectedly – and the Germans were in against the Russians, who then called on the others, the British and the French, and we had a proper conflict where the Germans were alone in a shooting war they didn’t start or want.
We know now that the assassin, Gavrilo Princip, and his Bosnian Serb separatist allies, were acting on their own, but that’s all history. If we look at Syria, we see that the loose alliance against Saddam is fracturing. The Russians are lined up with Syria and Iran, while the Gulf States, the Sunni Arabs of Saudi Arabia and an increasingly belligerent Qatar, together with Turkey and possibly the US, Britain and Europe, line up on the other side.
The Iranians will support the Syrian regime with weapons – perhaps, then, Syria looks less like pre-World War I Bosnia and more like pre-World War II Spain. The Spanish Civil War was the proxy war before the coming enormous conflict, with the fascist regimes supporting Franco. They tested weapons and armies in Iberia that would be later used all over Europe. On the other side, the communists did something similar, using the Spanish Republicans in the process.
In the past few weeks, there has been another wild card thrown into the Middle Eastern mix.
Now that Egypt is run by the Muslim Brotherhood and Gaza is being supplied militarily by Iran, there is a new dispensation in that part of the Middle East – a strained, volatile alliance between Iran and Egypt over Gaza, something the Americans have being trying to avoid for three decades.
So the Middle East is again in turmoil, and the political risks associated with it can’t be underestimated. For Europe it presents a particular dilemma because, for the first time in many years, Europe is impotent in the region.
For the past 200 years, any settlement in the Middle East was in effect a European settlement, whether it was Napoleon in Egypt or Sykes and Picot, for England and France, drawing up new boundaries which now look like arbitrary lines in the sand – because they were. The big change now is that Europe has no power in the Middle East – and precious little power even in north Africa. Without an ability to
project its power, it is impotent in the face of existential challenges in the region.
Israel is in America’s pocket, although often it feels like vice versa, and the big new influencer in the region is, of course, China. It gets almost all its oil imports from the region, unlike America.
Projecting forward, as America’s shale gas production is stepped up, the US looks like being an energy exporter in the not-too-distant future. This will again limit its already waning dependency on the region. In contrast, China will become increasingly tied up in the Middle East.
Is it likely that the world’s new superpower will look on helplessly at its main source of energy without taking sides?
In the next few months, these issues will begin to emerge and will add to the deep sense of unease and risk, triggered by the knowledge that Germany is no longer able to drag everyone in Europe out of the mire. All the while, countries are lining up in accordance with their interests.
Waiting behind a queue at Ballsbridge looking at this faux show of unity among all the foreign ministers of countries with differing interests, it’s not hard to get the feeling that the EU presidency will be more explosive then we imagined. That is all the more reason to push for a good deal for Ireland, while everyone is consumed by other, bigger concerns.
David McWilliams’s new book, The Good Room, is out now
What you say about the EU presidency being an opportunity is true, and I also agree I don’t see our government taking that opportunity, which is a pity because time is rapidly running out of any chance of a deal on our debt. As regards the Middle East, the US will only get involved if Israel is threatened, they’re not rushing back into the Middle East, they’ve only just got out if Iraq. China will be setting the agenda more and more on the world stage, I don’t think thats any secret, but how they conduct their business will be… Read more »
You can bank on it that Irish politicians will ensure that it is yet another missed opportunity; despite the fact that the country is pretty much faced with an open goal at this atage if it were competent enough to negotiate. Patrick Hnohan on the other hand is suggesting to the German press that Ireland needs to negotiate now and defer the next €3.1bn due in March. Here’s the synopsis in English of his interview in today’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: https://mninews.marketnews.com/index.php/ecbs-honohanireland-needs-extension-repayment-periodfaz?q=content/ecbs-honohanireland-needs-extension-repayment-periodfaz And he’s cheeky too! For those of youy who speak the lingo, scroll down towards the end of the… Read more »
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Ah Shale Gas .. Can you not see past that one David? .. 40bn dollars a year the industry is in deficit in US. The Wells are declining faster than anticipated. Same with the Shale Oil.. and whatever about the old adage there’ll always be enough oil in the world its only a matter of price..We’re going so far down the resource pyramid that its a matter of EROI (Energy return on Investment). There’s no good taking 1 barrel of oil out of the ground if it uses 2 barrels to get it out. Finally where Shales are concerned they… Read more »
David is using the word ‘ impotent ‘ more frequently of late . In this article he refers to an impotent Europe and more recently an impotent government in Ireland . War is now the inevitable and Israel seems to be the catalyst to create that spark. This lightening strike looks likely after Xmas so to take the lead strategy in this whole affair . And smack in the center of the World Map Ireland is positioned with the vested power of Presidency of Europe . This is a thriller about to happen . Dublin will have a pan Nerve… Read more »
Excellent article as usual – the same themes from the last few years are raising their heads in new evolutions as we speak.
I’m sure you meant Bashar Al- Assad and not my old friend Saddam…..?
Well they’d best get a move on “securing” a deal for Ireland before Italy blows just in time for Paddy’s Day, thereafter all bets will be off.
“If we look at Syria, we see that the loose alliance against Saddam is fracturing.”
United States, United Kingdom,Australia,Romania,El Salvador,Estonia,Bulgaria,Moldova,Albania,Ukraine, Denmark,Czech Republic,South Korea, Japan,Tonga,Azerbaijan,Singapore,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Macedonia,Latvia,Poland,Kazakhstan,Armenia,Mongolia,Georgia,Slovakia,Lithuania,Italy,Norway, Hungary,Netherlands,Portugal,New Zealand,Thailand,Philippines,Honduras,Dominican Republic,Spain,Nicaragua,Iceland.
That loose alliance against Saddam was a pathetic, short lived fig leaf for an illegal war of aggression based on lies
Hi David, Absolutely right about the Presidency as a potential opportunity, but until Ireland has its own Tahrir Square moment, it won’t matter a fuck. I think perhaps this is easy to forget: nothing has changed in the last four years to persuade any Irish government to behave differently than they have been up until now and in fact for decades. Why would they? Why should they? The transformative moment of Tahrir Square wasn’t that they tossed out Mubarak (that fact is almost irrelevant in some ways), it was that people came to realise that they didn’t necessarily have to… Read more »
“The Spanish Civil War was the proxy war before the coming enormous conflict, with the fascist regimes supporting Franco. They tested weapons and armies in Iberia that would be later used all over Europe. On the other side, the communists did something similar, using the Spanish Republicans in the process.”
I am not aware of any great military truth in that statement, dive-bombing of one symbolic basque town aside. Russians learned nothing that is for sure.
Israel more recently however has been a good proxy for testing new US war technology…they get the best and the get it first.
I am afraid that the Irish government will probably make a mess of everything. As shown under Bertie Ahern, Ireland holding the EU presidency usually indicates the Irish authorities running around as fast as they can to gain approval from the bigger guns – who later forget about it very quickly indeed. In other words, I expect a grovel-fest by Irish government ministers. Our best negotiating tactic would be to have two (or possibly three) politcal movements who don’t buy the Euro sell anymore gaining in the polls while all of this grovelling is going on. It would indicate clearly… Read more »
Think the historical interpretation of the origins of WWI is off. Kaiser Wilhelm II and the German High Command had been itching for a fight for years, it was a highly militaristic regime in Germany who sought expansion through military conquest, as in 1939, their military was the best in the world. The Germans felt confined and had largely lost out on the imperial stage, holding some minor possessions in Africa and a few islands in the Pacific but the Kaiser longed for ‘his place in the sun’. The situation in Sarajevo was merely a pretext (apparently the Austrian Chief… Read more »
David, you are making a fundamental error in believing these guys are bothered about the country. Understand that their interests are in being re-elected. No more. Now how do you get re-elected/Stay in Power? Merely understand who can cause you most bother – 1) On the ground medical card holders and people who need a street light fixed etc. and 2)Bankers/ Developers/ Public service sectors who all work together to maintain a status quo so you do not get fired while in Office. Any opportunity that may help the people of Ireland will be accidentally aligned with their own interests.… Read more »
Excellent article David. Things change very quickly. It seems not so long ago when you were in Germany describing thousands of trucks on the Autobahns whisking goods to the ports and airports. At the time you were amazed at Germany’s manufacturing power but look at the change in a only a couple of years! I’m pleased you talked about the current geo political situation and pleased that you acknowledge the disturbing relationship between the US and Israel Israel is povery ridden and so poor it could not survive without US aid and the US needs allies in the middle east… Read more »
Hi David: Your article gave me an idea: We are all looking for “a deal” but nobody is coming up with a practical suggestion of what that deal might look like other than extending the term of the loan which is no deal at all. I think we need to think of something that Europe and particularly the Germans could give us as compensation for being the good soldier of Europe and for taking one for the team as practically everybody in Europe and America now recognize is what we are doing in this Euro/banking crisis. Is there some type… Read more »
David according to Paulo Coelho “A child can teach an adult three things: to be happy for no reason, to always be busy with something, and to know how to demand with all his might that which he desires.” . As people from Argentina, and Iceland, made their trade mark, by protesting with a saucepan in one hand, and a wooden spoon in the other. By going out on the streets of Dublin with our kids, we could be able to get across our message to our Government first, and if it gives no results and the citizens are not… Read more »
Liam The link to USA Military Aid Chart shows how insane this world is. I have come to the conclusion that unless” people” in Ireland sit down and come up with a Plan B we will be pulled along a swift current of geopolitical chaos. David Mc Williams is correct to put this out for discussion. The headline and the possible deal are not what matter. ex-Pat northerner spared me finding links to cover the BS on shale by USA. David states the players and the sides in Syria. There is an ongoing resource grab on Iraq Libya Iran .Proxy… Read more »
There seem to be some illusions here that need swift banishment. It’s all about going after Russia, and that means thermonuclear war. Mr. Blair’s Doctrine. Lavrov: Russia Won’t Allow a Repeat of Libyan Scenario Dec. 9 (LPAC)—Russia will not allow the Libyan scenario to be repeated in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated in Moscow, RIA Novosti reported. “We’ll not allow the Libyan experience to be reproduced in Syria. Unfortunately, our Western partners have departed from the Geneva accords and are seeking the departure of [Syrian President] Bashar al Assad,” Lavrov said, while adding that Russia was not clinging… Read more »
Remember that the Taliban were financed via the BCCI by the CIA, MI6, and Mossad to go after the Soviets back then? Well, well here we go again. Obama it using Al Qaeda, a re-run, in Syria.
A Preliminary Fact Sheet: Obama in Bed with Al-Qaeda in Libya and Syria
While traveling across the country and around the globe, claiming credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden, President Barack Obama has forged a deep alliance with al-Qaeda and allied neo-Salafist organizations to overthrow the governments of Libya and Syria.
We have approx. 420 million people living in a political and economic system no one voted for. We have 80% of our laws coming from a body no one voted for. 27 Countries have accepted a system that makes Zimbabwe and China look very democratic. Ireland joined a common market, not a dictatorship. We have allowed our democracy to be hijacked by the bankers. No doubt our government will raise a glass of the finest champagne to toast this undemocratic body when they take over the presidency in January. Let us not forget the government cut, Household benefit program by… Read more »
You can’t surely really believe that Israel is in the pocket of the US? How is it then then that the fascist prime minister of Israel can garner 29 standing ovations before a joint session of the US government, right after he had shown naked scorn and contempt for Obomber on national TV? Compare these two videos on you tube, one of Netanyahu addressing a joint session of Congress, and one of Stalin addressing making a speech Autumn 1944; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXGh_sbPUk0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yNbXPwxKwg See what Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Reagans Under Secretary to the Treasury and arch paleoconservative has to say on… Read more »
How about an Argentine style cacerolazo in front of the RDS by in particular the mammies of Ireland…would that get the old boys attention?.
(I reckon Greek style demos aren’t an option and it is very hard to argue with peeved mammies).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF74px_VHzk
Sorry to spoil your day. Compounded the debt costs us in the region of 3 billion. Yes, 3 billion in 10 years. At the end of 10 years, ONE promissory note, (Oh sorry, I forgot they switched it to a sovereign debt.) We will owe approx 6 billion, I say compounded as we do not have the money to pay the interest from year to year. This is just ONE promissory note. Direct Democracy Ireland regard this type of bond transaction as part of the original odious debt. Bank of Ireland please take note. The actions of the ECB and… Read more »
Happy Christmas to my dear friends,fellow warriors,blogers and to David and his family.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSIUf2hD6Io&feature=youtu.be
Opportunity? Gimmi a break…. Structural changes of totalitarian charcater are the driving force within the Halls of European powers. The Nobel Peace Prize, this time a European “Kasper theater” made me laugh out loud. Half a century after the Rome treaty, leadership in the EU is dispersed! The European Council President, the Presidents of the Commission, or the downgraded rotating presidency, none of them ever provided the EU with coherent policies or support of the public. Germany is the center of attention, not the convoluted EU institutions, deriving their legitimacy from diluted “political authority” and being the center of lobbyism… Read more »
Opportunity? Gimmi a break…. Structural changes of totalitarian charcater are the driving force within the Halls of European powers. The Nobel Peace Prize, this time a European “Kasper theater” made me laugh out loud. Half a century after the Rome treaty, leadership in the EU is dispersed! The European Council President, the Presidents of the Commission, or the downgraded rotating presidency, none of them ever provided the EU with coherent policies or support of the public. Germany is the center of attention, not the convoluted EU institutions, deriving their legitimacy from diluted “political authority” and being the center of lobbyism… Read more »
This purpose of this article should be to ask ‘ what will they be doing in Dublin’. The Elephant in the room has not been addressed. We in our Constitution are referred to as ‘ The State’ . That only means to you and I that we have freedom and opportunities ……..Full Stop. No More . In France they have ‘ l’Etat’ . That means the French have freedom and opportunities ………….but thats not all . Their Constitution embraces much more of their fabric of their society as a caring and a body of law that makes them feel proud… Read more »
Chill everyone. Everything will be just fine. Take all those EU leaders to the Olympic Theatre for a few nights of Prodijig and they’ll be so pumped they’ll surely cancel the more odious aspects of the debt noose. Was absolutely blown away by Prodijig on BBC Breakfast Time. If Psy used Gangnam to put South Korea ‘on the map’ for a hell of a lot more than kimchee and dog meat, then with Prodijig, it’s time for Ireland’s ‘next episode’. It was 94/95, World Cup NYC, Fr Ted and Riverdance, my young boy was just born, I dreamed of moving… Read more »
A relevant timely idea : Greek Opposition Leader Tsipras Calls for 1953 German Style Debt Conference in an interview with Britain’s {Guardian} to settle the debt of all the southern European countries. Referring to the latest memorandum of austerity policies demanded by the Troika–the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank–Tsipras told the {Guardian}, “It is quite clear that the latest agreement was a compromise that will only perpetuate the uncertainty…. Merkel has to say to her people before [the 2013 German] elections that the program is not working. “The only viable solution is a haircut… Read more »
It took a little while, but DMcW cannot avoid the threat of war on the horizon. While the EU gets a Nobel Prize for “Peace in Our Time” : NATO Patriot Missile Deployments in Turkey, On Timetable for Parliamentary Votes This Week in the Netherlands and Germany Dec. 10 (EIRNS)–The war-pushing drive to install Patriot missiles in Turkey, is on a countdown for parliamentary votes in the Netherlands and Germany this week. The plan was approved on Dec. 4 by NATO, at which time, representatives of these two countries and the United States agreed to provide the Patriot batteries for… Read more »
In case anyone still touts illusions of what this is all about : Russia reiterates : no violation of Syrian sovereignty Dec. 10 (LPAC)–Despite new insistence by Western politicians like British Foreign Minister Hague, that Russia has begun to shift toward the Western position on Syria, the Russian leadership is holding firm. In addition to the statements of Dec. 9, in which Foreign Minister Lavrov repeated that the Libyan scenario would not be allowed to recur in Syria, the Russian Foreign Ministry today put out a statement in the wake of a Dec. 9 meeting between UN and Arab League… Read more »
Leading U.S. Mideast expert Hillary Mann Leverett, with 20 years experience, who served in both the Clinton and Bush administrations, blasts chemical weapons wild British hoax in a half-hour panel discussion on al-Jazeera Dec. 8. After casting doubt on the reality of the charge, she offered three potential reasons why the Administration would be putting out such lying claims. First, they might be trying to get leverage over Russia, China, and Iran, who are resisting the regime change agenda. With this charge, which she repeated, she took the question into the broader strategic realm–although not identifying the British imperial global… Read more »
..a great opportunity for us .
Are we talking about Musketeer Opportunities – all for one and one for all ?
Or is it another reason for another Tribunal ?
HSBC Avoids All Prosecution, Supposedly To Prevent New Bank Panic Dec. 11, 2012 (LPAC) — The British empire’s drug bank Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC), the biggest universal bank in Europe and the bank Lyndon LaRouche’s movement fought a sustained battle to keep out of the United States in the 1970s, has been allowed by the Obama Administration to keep its U.S. banking license, despite wholesale and serious violations of U.S. laws. HSBC was found by a Senate committee earlier this year to have been the favored money-laundering bank of the murderous Mexican drugs cartels, and the preferred correspondent… Read more »
The only way the EU presidency will do anything for this place is if the lads feel the pressure from “the people”. They wont. Here is an example of why. Was chatting to supplier who is owed 120K. She took the offending companies to court (all bigger than her operation) and she won. Now, you’d imagine – grand, you have the piece of paper with the judgement etc etc. But no. She is owing 11K to the solicitors and that needs paying immediately. Meanwhile, the companies who have the judgement against them can carry on with no impugning of reputation,… Read more »
This is a must read if you want to understand anglo Irish bank, promissory notes etc. Superb analysis by Karl Whelan. http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/WP12_06.pdf
Time Warp
Had we not been educated as were our forebears in the past we might believe we have a great life NOW : better transport, quality food & clothes , better houses & utility services, better health and more opportunities etc
We are now better educated , more critical , more expectations , more TV etc
Does it make more sense to learn to ‘think positive’ and ‘adapt’ and smile to everyone and let them all know how lucky you really are ?
Be brave like Iceland ….. http://azizonomics.com/2012/12/08/the-icelandic-success-story/
The proportion of households without a working adult in Ireland is the highest out of 31 European countries and more than double that of the euro zone average, according to a report published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) this morning.
It’s all closing in on them now –
Euro zone factory output continued its steep fall in autumn this year, underscoring the feeble domestic demand that risks prolonging the region’s recession.
Industrial production in the 17 countries sharing the euro fell 1.4 per cent in October after falling sharply per cent in September, the EU’s statistics office Eurostat said today. That was much worse than the modest growth expected by economists in a Reuters poll.
This is the
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Benanke quivered in his speech during his public conference expose today .Was his hair on fire ?
By the way his birthday is tomorrow and like every good Sagitarian ( Frank Sinatra ) ‘He did it his way ‘.
Bernanke quivered in his speech during his public conference expose today .Was his hair on fire ?
By the way his birthday is tomorrow and like every good Sagitarian ( Frank Sinatra ) ‘He did it his way ‘.
Enda said today that he talks to people everyday who tell him fair play keep it going you’re doing a great job. You’d know he is either in Europe or Leinster House everyday.
When you have someone hesitant about being a part of the ‘team’ bring them in and tell them how you are so inpresses they will be thw new captain of the team.
Ireland should turn down this ‘opportunity’, decline the leadership and leave the euro if not the union. Others have noted above that Ireland will be dispensed with and shoved aside when no longer useful.
Bernanke quivered in his speech, is he heading for the same breakdown as the global economy? Bernanke boosts QE4 with 45 billion a month treasury purchases and keeps buying mortgage bonds of 40 billion per month. Total 85 billion. Monetary debasement= your loss of purchasing power. Monetary debasement= fancy word of INFLATION. The credibility of the $ is at stake and this I believe is the beginning of hyperinflation, there is no way back. The USA is racing towards hyperinflation, courtesy of the Federal Reserve. The Euro is following the same path. Bernankes decisions will have a devastating effect on… Read more »
Maybe we should be taking a closer look at what china and Russia are doing and make out plans around that. Never mind the EU or EURO
http://www.gata.org/files/QBAMCO-Its-Time-12-2012.pdf
Instead of Glass-Steagall – separation by function, the EU goes for bank separation by size, and saving only the TBTF, letting the smaller collapse. Triage for “Non-Systemic” Banks Planned in Europe Dec. 12, 2012 (EIRNS)–On the eve of the Dec. 13-14 EU summit, rumors are taking shape, that the planned EU banking union plus supervision will have no other purpose than to protect the big banks and let several thousand smaller banks go under. It is broadly reported that the governments of France and Germany are agreed, or are in the process of agreeing, that the banking supervision, placed at… Read more »
Police Raid Deutsche Bank Dec. 12, 2012 (EIRNS) — In a spectacular action, 500 policemen raided the two towers of the Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt today, as well as the bank’s offices in Berlin and Düsseldorf, seeking evidence of top management involvement in tax fraud and false bookkeeping. The latter is said to involve covering derivative losses of up to EU12 billion. According to media reports, two top managers, Juergen Fitschen and Stefan Krause, are among the 25 Deutsche Bank officials being investigated. Five officials are already in jail. The tax fraud case involves false CO2 certificates which Deutsche… Read more »
The oligarchy is playing Berlusconi- Monti- Germany in a repeat of H.G. Wells Wings over the World vs. the Boss.
Hysterical boulevard press is not fooling everyone, readers of {Der Spiegel} commented: “Well, now Italians will have the choice between Goldman Sachs’ corruption and Berlusconi’s corruption.”
The only purpose is to destroy what remains of Italy’s sovereignty.
Dept of Finance 90m consultancy fees to Accenture. Recession is not bad news to some.