Did you know that Limerick has seen the biggest jump in income in the past decade? Not Dublin. Limerick.
After-tax income in Limerick rose by 14pc between 2005 and 2015, according to the CSO. This is a huge figure given the collapse in incomes experienced across the country during the crash and the extent of extra tax increases over the past decade.
A few years back, after a wonderful Saturday morning spent in Limerick’s Milk Market, this column made the unfashionable case for Limerick. It always seemed to me that Limerick got an unfair rap, and in 2014 it appeared that Limerick had so much going for it and would be well placed to benefit from the recovery.
The Limerick article was intended more as a conversation starter; little did I know that this was happening in a much more significant way than I’d thought.
In contrast, disposable income in the commuter counties around Dublin — specifically Meath and Kildare — experienced falls in after-tax income of 13pc and 10pc. These are large contractions in income and are, of course, related to the substantial drop in house prices in the commuter belt. In Ireland, rising house prices drive demand and demand drives income.
The data show that with the exception of Roscommon, which has seen a drop in income of 10pc over the decade, the major economic losers in this lost decade were not counties deep in rural Ireland (as is claimed relentlessly in the media) but rather the suburban counties in the “baby belt” around Dublin.
While income is rising now, it will take another few years to get back up to pre-crash levels.
This week, Goodbody stockbrokers referred to the period since 2007 as the lost decade in an otherwise optimistic outlook for the economy. Looking forward, Goodbody has got it right.
In fact, it’s quite likely that Ireland could enter a “Golden Age” of economic expansion, if we get a few things right.
Strategically the reason for optimism is based on Ireland being an excellent place to locate for international firms. If domestic Irish firms can supply these new companies, they will feed straight into the global corporate supply chain.
In the past few years, the global economy has changed dramatically and the key to understanding the world economy is an appreciation of the importance of the global supply chain.
In the past, resources — people, raw materials and capital — tended to determine a country’s wealth, but these constraints have been lifted in recent years as globalisation has globalised every business. The sweet spot for any trading country is to become an indispensable cog in the global supply chain. This means that the economy has to host the best companies and the best people.
A way to think about this hosting model of economics is to think about the Monaco Grand Prix, which is the most glamorous, most prestigious of them all.
It generates enormous revenue for the principality and is a must on the calendar for petrol heads the world over. But Monaco has no drivers and no car industry. It doesn’t compete in the sport but it hosts the best race. People don’t show up to see local drivers or cars; they show up to see the best.
Countries, too, are hosts and the small country that wins in the future will be the best host. If a country can host the best and have free access to all markets, then the reduction in transport costs does the rest.
Strategically, Ireland is in that place.
From here, we just have to sort out what could be described as internal management issues, rather than strategic issues. The main management failures in Ireland are housing and, relatedly, transport. The country is small so transport should be simple and efficient and for a nation that built most of America and Britain, it can’t be beyond us to build Ireland.
So we have a management problem and we need to fix it because the prize is huge and, in a sense, we’ve done the hard part.
Right now the economy is motoring. Bank of Ireland is forecasting GDP growth will be 4.8pc this year. This makes Ireland Europe’s fastest-growing economy — for the fourth year in a row.
However, the notion that Ireland is a European economy in the true sense of the word is a bit far-fetched. As I’ve sketched out above, we are part of the global economy, an Atlantic trading economy with three critical relationships: the US, the UK and the EU.
As the economy has grown, debt as a fraction of GDP has also contracted rapidly to 74.3pc in the first quarter of 2017. This is down from a height of 124.2pc in early 2013. So while people and companies have been paying back debt, it is the growth in GDP that has driven the debt ratio down. But GDP is not a reliable indicator of how an individual’s personal situation has changed. A much more reliable indicator is the after-tax income figure I’ve used.
While income is rising, in order to get a real kick taxes, and particularly income taxes, have to fall. This will mean at some stage taxing the least productive asset in the country: property. There’s no other way.
Employment growth is extremely strong right now. It is running at 3.5pc, with 2,063,900 people employed as of the first quarter of 2017. That’s 96,400 off the peak reached in the first quarter of 2008. But because so much of this activity back then was in construction, employment in 2008 was extremely fragile. This time it is more broadly based.
Unemployment dipped down to 6.4pc in July — that’s down from a height of 15.2pc in January 2012 and 2.1pc off the low of 4.3pc in November 2006. Expect unemployment to fall further in the years ahead. As a result of falling unemployment, retail sales and volumes figures have grown rapidly in the past three to four years.
Strategically we are in good shape to play a small but significant role in the global economy. The product is good. The brand is strong. The balance sheet is improving each quarter. However, we have a local management issue. It’s a technical issue called housing. Good managers fix problems.
Do we have such a management team? Maybe we should advertise for one.
Election with 18 months. Limerick is the median, in the world of pollsters like Frnak Luntz. Not thriving like Dublin or Galway. Not beaten like the North West. The residential supply problem is a direct result of the state deciding that it needed to bailout the two pillar banks. It was allowed to happen, because it was deemed positive for the banks. All those debts. NAMA is currently unloading it’s books of the distressed assets. The income drop for the East region, is a reflection of the above average role of the private sector in these regions. Most employment locations… Read more »
In Ireland, rising house prices drive demand and demand drives income.
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This will mean at some stage taxing the least productive asset in the country: property.
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How are the above two sentences compatible with each other?
Firstly proclaiming rising house prices are the fountain of prosperity by increasing income and then tax housing , tax it because it is the least productive part of the economy.
It sounds like a menu for a bust to me. Fictitious ramblings make no sense.
I would estimate the gardai to be an even bigger mess than the other two. The gardai are supposed to be an essential item of infrastructure. Instead of chasing criminals, they are as likely to be breaking the law themselves. The minister responsible seems to think that the way to run a police force is through PR statements. This is falling apart. FG have been in charge of the interior since 2011, and the entire system is an even bigger mess than it was under FF. The prisons are full, to the point that the prisoners are getting out early… Read more »
The state is NOT supposed to fix the housing problem. Except in this case the state MADE the housing problem, with absurd regulations that are deemed outrageous by builders who sell units in Canadian cities, and find the “requirements” in Dublin to be idiotic. The banks are sitting on capital. The profit rate on redeveloped land switched to residential is 80%. Great for the institutional state – but scaring away developers. The state posing as the answer to problems that the state created (but which it will never admit to having created) amounts to a massive insult to the collective… Read more »
By the way, with regard to transport, not one political party will admit that Irish motoring is ridiculously expensive. Expensive to the point that it is reducing the efficiency of the economy.
In the UK there is a continual efficiency improvement in both road and public transport. In Ireland, the first is extremely expensive, and the other is badly organized.
Of course, if this Golden Age does not occur, the media will blame Trump, the Chinese, the Russians, Brexit, the Greeks, etc…. Script : We were “going great” were it not for the arranged bogeymen. Repeat, reassemble, repeat, rephrase, and repeat. Soon it is rubberstamped as being true. Minimal mention of the level of unsustainable debt in the public sector in most Eurozone countries. That is ONLY a Greek problem. No mention of the fact that Irish competitiveness has hit serious structural barriers, related to tax, infrastructure efficiency (the LUAS is NOT an efficient public transport option). And we will… Read more »
MOST CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS BLOG ARE AFRAID TO ADMIT THIS ; . . https://twitter.com/HenryMakow/status/896814408160161792 . . This is the blog of he who directly advised the then Minister of Finance, on crisis visit to this very economist’s home, to give unlimited Sovereign Guarantee on the Private Debts owing to each of all the banks based in Irish State, & thus : . sacrifice the poorest of the poor of Irish State . send the rest of the Rothschild targeted countries falling as Dominos. . . SO, THIS BLOG IS OF “SYSTEMIC IMPORTANCE” ; . . BUT, SADLY, THE VAST MAJORITY… Read more »
I know I said wouldn’t post here again but I just can’t seem to stop myself. Lets inject a bit of REALITY into the mix. We built 14k houses last year I think in an economy that needs probably 50k houses plus per year. That says that about how dysfunctional the housing industry is. Saying if we get housing right is like the captain of the Titanic saying all will be well if we can get the lifeboat problem sorted. Sure you are correct but my balls are still gonna freeze. Next Deco is right; motoring costs are out of… Read more »
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Main Subject ;
Bannon [ Trump’s official Chief Strategist ]
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This should interest Grzegorz ;
Not least because it ventures into talking about Mr. Dugin.
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https://sjobst.blogspot.ca/2017/07/in-defense-of-evola-geopolitical.html?m=1
David,
You’re making the mistake of becoming a forecaster. NOT a good idea! The future is always subject to circumstances. Stay away from it!
Ive been a follower of this site for many years and have always enjoyed the articles and the perspectives of the comments below so i thought id throw my 2 cents in. I’ve always felt we had a shot at a solid modern ecconomy but I think our “management” have short term views and vested interests. The transport issue is a wide ranging mess,selling off toll bridges to private companies,road tax and insurance at extortionate levels,the biggest and smallest road users in cyclists and buses sharing the same part of the road and fatalities rising. As for public transport…… I’d… Read more »
Comments on this blog are either filtered or censored.
BUT, DAVID, WHAT HAPPENS TO UR “GOLDEN-AGE”FORECAST WHEN U FACTOR IN THAT WE ARE BEING INCREASINGLY SWAMPED BY “WELFARE TOURISTS” & “WELFARE so-called REFUGEES” ?
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THEY ARE NOT DETERRED BY ADVANCES WHICH U BELIEVE WE AS “WHITES IN THE MAIN” SHOULD FEEL “WHITE GUILT” FOR ;
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RATHER, THEY WANT TO COME OVER & GET SOME.
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http://www.returnofkings.com/127053/4-benefits-that-minorities-enjoy-while-living-in-white-supremacist-countries?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter%20dlvrit%20rss
‘Over the years, I’ve found I have much more in common with people of my own social or economic station or occupation in France, Argentina, or Hong Kong, than with an American union worker in Detroit or a resident of the LA barrios. I suspect many of you would agree with that observation. What’s actually important in relationships is shared values, principles, interests, and philosophy. Geographical proximity, and a common nationality, is meaningless — no more than an accident of birth.’ ‘The End of the Nation-State’ Doug Casey ‘Mises Wire’ Blog 10th August 2017 In a bunker outside Birmingham, a… Read more »
https://needtoknow.news/2017/08/alex-jones-describes-globalist-strategy-incite-race-war-america/
Good news Dublin’s economy is roaring and that Ireland may rev up soon. For years Ireland’s “hosted” manufacturing via IDA hubs etc, and we do “host” some of the best here already ito leaders of global supply chains – think Apple etc – with associated dizzy pigs or wobbly transfer pricing that generate gobbledeegook GDP figures. We could definitely do with increasing employment in servicing emerging and best digital businesses globally – assuming they are not terminal tech bubblies. And if we could establish some of our own – even better! I still believe that Ireland has a strategic problem… Read more »
Mainstream Media Ignores Violence by Antifa and Black Lives Matter in Charlottesville – Puts Blame on Unite the Right
Unite the Right was herded by police into a small area surrounded by Antifa which hurled balloons at them filled with urine, feces, and paint, shouting “Kill Nazis!”
https://needtoknow.news/2017/08/mainstream-media-ignores-violence-antifa-black-lives-matter-charlottesville-puts-blame-unite-right/
“”I worry more about those who want to act as fact checkers, blatantly ignoring propaganda and fake news by the MSM while targeting alternative media and dictating what is and isn’t important for public consumption.””
https://needtoknow.news/2017/08/soros-partners-firefox-ebay-founder-create-censorship-tool/
But if Ireland is now just ‘part of a global supply chain’ why is this of any concern? Is this the ‘management’ that David McWalliams thinks should be invited in to run Ireland Inc? …..If not, wtf is Ireland doing in the Euro…*smirks* ‘Strategically we are in good shape to play a small but significant role in the global economy. The product is good. The brand is strong. The balance sheet is improving each quarter. However, we have a local management issue. It’s a technical issue called housing. Good managers fix problems. Do we have such a management team? Maybe… Read more »
The punt is 116 % the value of sterling,back to the level of 2009. Totally overvalued. Newry,here we come.Another mess created by the euro.
http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland
Post 1986,the mean house price in Dublin three has increased from £40k to €600k.Now twenty per cent more expensive than the London and Nyc averages. Next crash within 2 yrs.
THIS WAS RECOMMENDED TO ME ; . . ……………………………………………………………… . THE GREAT TOMATO BUBBLE . . DO YOU EVER WONDER? . Ever wonder about why our economy is in trouble? How can so many people can be in so much debt at the same time? Does it seem strange to you no matter how hard one works, and in spite of all the advances in society, most hard working people cannot escape the treadmill of perpetual debt? . Why are so many families losing their homes to foreclosure? Why are many households dependent upon credit cards to supplement their income?… Read more »
Good story that contains the essence of the biggest fraud ever created by anyone.
The end result is economic serfdom for humanity. Wakey wakey rise and shine. Another day , another dollar, for the banker, must be earned by you to be paid directly to the bagman banker.
“While income is rising, in order to get a real kick taxes, and particularly income taxes, have to fall. This will mean at some stage taxing the least productive asset in the country: property. There’s no other way.” David, you’ve lost touch with reality. How many times have you told us to take our heads out of the textbook, and look at the real world instead. Well it’s time you took your own advice. Lets take an assortment of assets – shares, bonds, bitcoin, gold, property. Which is the most productive? Shares : I put a few quid in a… Read more »
@Truthist SUN TZU -> KNOW THY ENEMY ANTI-WHITE IS “code” FOR ANTI CHRISTIAN -> THE WHITE SOCIETIES ARE THE PRIMARY TARGET -> BUT WHY? => THEIR HISTORICAL LOVE OF CHRIST . . THE LOVE OF TRUTH -> SCIENTIFIC METHOD -> THE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM => ALL CHRISTIAN IDEALS FROM CHRIST => “THE TRUTH WITH SET YOU FREE” . . . IT IS IT WAS IT WAS ALWAYS A SPIRTIUAL BATTLE . . . SATAN -> “THE FATHER OF LIES” -> SATANISTS INSPIRED MARXISM => MUST ALWAYS “LIE” ABOUT THEIR TRUE PURPOSE . . . SO WHAT IS THE TRUE PURPOSE OF… Read more »
When posts of this blog focus more on the Socio-Political-Culturo parts of its remit — & of course in so doing ignoring the Economics part — it is most often done with reference to Peter Hitchens. . . But, Camile Paglia is a much more intellectually honest & brave & gracious & talented & accomplished & benign & interesting & entertaining & humorous & IMPORTANT thinker than he [ or even his brother was ] ; . Note ; I do not say that the Hitchenses never have any, or indeed all, of the above qualities to any meaningful extent.… Read more »
In times of peace prepare for war and in times of war prepare for peace. We failed dismally to manage the last boom properly. We MAY be on the verge of another boom. Can we manage this one properly? That is the BIG question. The map of the Universe as we see is out of date. The speed of light is the reason for this. What would the Universe really look like if we could see it as it is today without the constraint imposed by the speed of light? Bank to the impending boom and next bust. I’d like… Read more »
This is how to obtain the economic golden age.
It must start with self governance and rule by consent.
It must devolve from rule of the nation state to local governance.
It needs to devolve to the equivalent of the city state that is small enough that all people are affected equally by any law agreed by the majority.
It must be a real democracy and operated by the rule of law, not the rule of preference and favoritism.
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/how-to-get-saudi-women-rights-and-make-your-neighbor-paint-his-house/
One for you Mr contraflow:
“JOHN McAFEE: Here’s why you can’t call bitcoin a ‘bubble'”
http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-john-mcafee-not-a-bubble-2017-8?r=US&IR=T
As everyone knows that I am complete Formula 1 freak (my first word ever was “boom-boom”, which – in a language that didn’t exist outside my head – meant our car and; “mama” was only my second word); so let me allow you to say that I agree with “Our Dave” (for F1 connoisseur’s – this is, of course, a loving reference to “Our Nige”): “A way to think about this hosting model of economics is to think about the Monaco Grand Prix, which is the most glamorous, most prestigious of them all. It generates enormous revenue for the principality… Read more »
I nearly forgot: did you know that before WWII, there was an Irish Grand Prix (I wonder why they didn’t do any more of them)?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rgzCUcE0WQ&t=3s Also – do you remember when Ayrton Senna said he had out-of-body experience during this qualifying lap (where he was 2 seconds faster than Alan Prost in the same car – which cannot be rationally explained, considering that Prost didn’t make any error and a max difference that you can expect over one qualifying between two top drivers in the same car on the same tires would be 0.5 seconds – even 0.5 would… Read more »
Ireland has bet a lot on Tech. And now it appears that Tech is capable of some rather troubling antics. At the very least, it is known that business culture in “the valley” is ruthless, predatory, and downright superficial. Often corporate war gets played out in the court system. This is the latest revelation from a battle that has been simmering for some time, that might now become very newsworthy. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-15/text-message-between-ousted-uber-ceo-and-engineer-lets-start-faketeslaabout-stupid-s Did Google deliberately try to sabotage Tesla ? [ and that includes some with senior management responsibility, with regard to the automotive unit in Google ]. Did Google try… Read more »
And, Henry Makow the Anti-Christ-ian Officer Class beavering away on Soros’s behalf at Hollyweird [ Culture Degraders ], Wall Street [ Banksters, & Stockbrokers ], Washington [ Politicos, & Lobbyists ], Madison Avenue [ Advertising Copyrighters ], inter alia as D U P E S. . A proper name for them. . George Schwartz — who later changed his name to George Soros — had no scruples in stealing the immense wealth [ Gold, Priceless Paintings, luxurious Furniture, etc. etc. ] from the families fellow tribe when they fled from the Nazi sic. invasions of particular European countries. Indeed, he… Read more »
THE WORLD IS BUT A STAGE … FOR “… EVENT with FALSE FLAG” PHENOMENA . ………………………………………….. . 1. “REAL EVENT with FALSE FLAG” . 1.1 Re ; Event . Some of the events cause actual victims i.e. NOT “Victims” who are “Crisis Actors” . Thus, REAL EVENT . . 1.2 Re ; Perpetrator[s] / Flag . The perpetrators are : . 1.2.1 not really they who are officially blamed for it . & / or . 1.2.2 Patsy / Patsies . Thus, FALSE FLAG . . Ultimately ; . “REAL EVENT with FALSE FLAG” . . ………………………………… . 2. “FAKE… Read more »
GREAT PERFORMANCE BY TRUMP ;
TO A CONSIDERABLE EXTENT HE IS DEFENDING THE WRONGED SIDE
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THE SUPPORTERS OF General Lee
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CNN ARE COMMUNIST SABOTEURS
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HEADING ;
“What About The Alt-Left?” President Trump Destroys CNN Reporter Jim Acosta On Charlottesville
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TYXDifodng
The communist (Russian) influences on Canada.
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/05/26/canadians-should-look-closer-to-home-for-russian-collusion
It appears that the ‘golden age’ good news gospel about Limerick’s fortunes over the last decade hasn’t reached it’s most illustrious cultural ambassadors… “My generation, we’re old enough to remember the Celtic Tiger, but we’re massively affected by the recession. Our 20s were stolen from us, pretty much. Young Irish people, the suicide amongst them is massive. Huge amounts of suicide, jumping into rivers, and emigration and a lot of young Irish people, they don’t see a future. Speaking of 1916, Blindboy said: “It’s weird to look back at these lads that were our age, these men and women that… Read more »
An interesting comment on the mis-allocation of job skill training. Scarity in one area and unemployment in another. “”There is something huge being totally underestimated (or just plain ignored, as it doesn’t fit the official narrative) by MSM: the critical lack of skilled labor in the U.S. This labor crisis is producing significant wage inflation, and will only accelerate over time. Millions of jobs in trucking, construction, manufacturing, and virtually any other job essential to the flow of goods and services in the economy are going begging, The crisis in trucking is especially concerning. Jobs which pay $60-100k with benefits… Read more »
https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent/20170816/284159336115336
I decided to leave it without any comment.
Further actions will follow.
@ Grzegorz,
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MSHD + KGB Meeting ?
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https://fjc-fsu.org/russian-religious-leaders-promote-interfaith-dialogue/
@ Grzegorz,
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Photo for u ;
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“Super Rich” COUGAR ALERT !
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If any of ewes is an aspiring Toy-Boy ;
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“Just lie back & think of Ireland, & bring me back some of her dosh.”
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https://twitter.com/LdeRothschild/status/897851437346148353
THE OVERWHELMING REASON THAT President JFK WAS ASSASSINATED ;
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https://twitter.com/jamesperloff/status/897252527024074757
THERE IS ALWAYS THE 1st-TIME FOR THE HIGHLY INTELLIGENT BEAUTIFUL WOMAN TO BE SWEPT OFF HER FEET BY THE EVEN MORE INTELLIGENT HANDSOME MAN INFORMING HER OF THIS VITAL TRUTH ;
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https://politicalvelcraft.org/2017/08/16/americas-cia-israels-mossad-created-al-qaeda-and-the-isis-terror-group/
Greetings from Athens. Just walked up and down to the Acropolis – what a place! Colossal.
Was surprised to read that the population of Dublin is greater than that of Athens.
Now for some nice Greek food and beer.
Marvin Shaffer, an adjunct economics professor at Simon Fraser University’s public policy program, argued before a joint review panel that the dam is not needed on the current timelines. But halting it now would leave taxpayers on the hook for $2 billion to $4 billion of sunk costs, without getting a single electron of new power, he said. “One way or the other, either ratepayers or taxpayers are going to have to pay the $2 billion to $4 billion of sunk costs, without (getting) anything for it,” he said. The NDP/Green government promised to shut down the site C hydro… Read more »
Hi Grezgorz,
If you look at the two links below you will see the first one is a rant about skills shortages in Ireland in 2015. The second one shows the emigration figure to April 2015; 80900 one of the highest ever.
It looks like to me that wages aren’t keeping in line with the cost of living. Another way to say that is inflation is rampant.
It seems that is being replicated in the US and Canada. No talk about inflation there either.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0929/731162-recruitment-report/
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2016/
Michael.
“Businesses and governments must act to address these issues or risk jeopardising future economic growth,” he added.””
A call for more intervention to solve the problem of previous interventions.