If Britain leaves the EU, it could start a domino effect – at the end of which is a united Ireland
Here’s a scenario that might not be too far-fetched. It is not, by any stretch of the imagination, one that would be welcomed here; but it could happen. What will happen if Britain votes to leave the European Union in five weeks’ time?
What happens to Northern Ireland? The DUP is campaigning for Brexit, but Brexit may loosen the UK so much that the DUP could be signing its own death warrant. Here is the possible scenario that will unfold if there’s a break-up of the UK. The English lead the British out of Europe. The Scottish then go to the polls again, wanting to stay in Europe. They have to leave the UK to stay in the EU, and by a small margin they vote to stay in Europe but leave the English. Not unfeasible.
The rump UK becomes an entity involving a eurosceptic England, a modestly pro-European but compliant Wales and an ever-divided Northern Ireland. However it is a Northern Ireland shorn of its fraternal brothers, the Scots – in a union with the ambivalent English. There has never been the same cultural affinity between the English and the Northern Unionists.
The cultural glue of Protestant Northern Ireland within the UK is Scotland. I have some experience of this. My grandparents were Scottish. My wife is from Belfast. My children were born in the Ulster Hospital (where the missus and me were the only couple at the pre-natal classes not in his-and-hers matching Rangers tracksuits).
Unlike many Southerners, my bonds with that part of the world are strong. Ethnically, without Scotland, the union of Northern Ireland and a multicultural but nationalistic little England is not particularly coherent.
All the while, the demographic forces are on the side of nationalism.
As I write, I am looking at demographics in Northern Ireland from the 2011 census. The most interesting statistic shows the proportion of Catholics and Protestants in various age groups. Of the elderly, those over-90 in the North, 64 per cent are Protestant and 25 per cent are Catholic. A total of 9 per cent had no declared religion.
This reflects the religious status quo when these people were born, in the 1920s, and more or less reflects the realities of the Treaty.
When you look at those children and babies born since 2008, the picture changes dramatically. This corresponding figure is 31 per cent Protestant and 44 per cent Catholic. In one (admittedly long) lifetime, the Catholic population in the youngest cohort has nearly doubled, while the Protestant cohort has more than halved.
Even given the fact that 23 per cent of parents of infants declared themselves as having no religion, we seem to be en route to a united Ireland.
Up to now, there has been a significant number of Northern Irish Catholics who might have felt that staying with the UK was the right thing to do for their back pockets. But when you look at the numbers you can see clearly that this is a bizarre choice.
A cursory glance at the performance of the Northern Irish economy since 1922 would suggest that the Union has been an economic disaster for the people of Northern Ireland. They have been impoverished by the Union and this shows no sign of letting up. The only solace the Northerners might hold onto is the fact that all British regions have lost out income-wise to Southern England; however, “we’re all getting poor together” is hardly a persuasive chorus for an ode to the Union. Indeed, the relative under-performance of the once-rich Scottish economy was (and is) a central argument of the Scottish Nationalists in the last referendum.
However, forget the other British regions: the contrast between the economic performances of the North and South is shocking.
If we go back to 1920, 80 per cent of the industrial output of the entire island of Ireland came from the three counties centred on Belfast. This was where all Irish industry was. It was industrial and innovative; northern entrepreneurs and inventors were at the forefront of industrial innovation. By 1911, Belfast was the biggest city in Ireland, with a population of close to 400,000, which was growing rapidly. It was by far the richest part of the island.
In contrast, the rest of the Irish economy was agricultural and backward and the only industrial base we had could be termed a ‘beer and biscuits’ economy, dominated by the likes of Guinness and Jacobs.
Fast-forward to now and the collapse of the once-dynamic Northern economy versus that of the Republic is shocking. Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now ten times greater than that of Northern Ireland. Exports from the Republic are €89 billion while from the North, exports are a paltry €6 billion. This obviously reflects multinationals, but it also underscores just how far ahead the Republic’s industrial base is. Producing 15 times more exports underscores a vast difference in terms of the globalisation of business.
The total size of the Republic’s economy is now four times of that of the North, even though the labour force is not even two and a half times bigger. In terms of income per head, the Republic is now almost twice as rich per person as the North. The average income per head in the Republic is €39,873, while it languishes at €23,700 up North. The differing fortunes of North and South can be easily seen in the fact that, having been smaller than Belfast at the time of partition, the population of the greater Dublin area is now almost three times bigger than the greater Belfast metropolitan region.
Obviously there are significant differences in terms of prices, access to public services and housing between the two parts of the island, but the fact remains that the Union has been an economic calamity for everyone in the North. The contrast is made more significant by the fact that economically the North was, at one stage, so far ahead of the South. So where does that leave us?
Well, in the distant past, there was good reason to believe that the Union preserved living standards in the North, but this is a myth and has not been the case since 1990. Indeed, the end of the Troubles, which should have marked the resurgence of the relative performance of the North, has actually delivered the opposite.
Relative to the South, the Northern economy has fallen backwards since the guns were silenced. If there was an economic peace dividend, it went South.
Now with Brexit looming and the concrete and more profound underlying changes in demography, the issue of a united Ireland may be back on the table quicker than most of us imagined – or cared to dread.
Interestingly, Unionists have now an economic incentive to join a united Ireland because the Union is impoverishing them, but I suspect they’d prefer to get poor in a semi-detached UK rather than join a much more coherent all-Ireland economic endeavour.
The clock is ticking and the starting gun could be the Brexit vote.
There is great story-telling in these articles. Tell us, how do you come up with such engaging pieces week-in, week-out?
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It has been true for some generations that Northern Ireland has become a failed economic entity but, as you rightly suggest, certain unionists would rather stay poor than consider unification. Conor Cruise O’Brien, who stood as a Unionist MP conceded that, in the end, the best prospect for unionism was to come to an accommodation with the Republic. There is significant support for a united Ireland on both sides of the border but if it came to a referendum people would be heavily influenced by the economic risks/benefits. If we got over the jingoism and bigotry the upside of unification… Read more »
The Identity Crisis on The Isles will endorse itself on June 23rd
Hi, You made no mention of the fact that the largest nationalist party in the north (being sinn fein) is dominated by Marxist ideology and perhaps it is this which is causing such an impediment to industrial progress up north. If true David, imagine the economic havoc that would ensue on the whole island if Ireland were united in a way that allowed sinn fein to become a real political heavyweight north and south? It would be logical to conclude paradoxically that the biggest threat to a united Ireland is sinn fein wouldn’t it? The ordinary Brit might be so… Read more »
The article ignores the colossal cost to the Republic, namely a current account deficit of 33% and an enormous public service, almost 1 in 3 working in the public service. If we thought bailing out the bond holders was bad this would be far worse.
I’m glad that David seems to have abandoned his former unionist views, which he actively promoted until the very recent past. I hope he will now re-examine his ”our greatest trading partner” argument. My counter argument was that most of what comes ”from” Britain actually comes ”through” Britain. In an age of container ships that can easily be remedied. Old Viking Dublin might get a new lease of life if Britain exits. The Vikings did not see Ireland as geographically challenged, they saw the advantages of the Liffey over the Thames and the Seine.
Pointless statistical premise. It’s well known the Protestant population, particularly the Presbyterians, have a higher life expectancy than Catholics in NI. Largely due to lifestyle choices, apparently. The assumption is also made that those of “no religion” are not unionists. For at least two thirds of ni’s existence, the population were better off than the southerners, with any population flow largely being northwards. A bit spurious to blame the Union for recent failures? If we’re so much richer than they are, we didn’t need that bailout, or that sub from David Cameron in 2010? Any ideas why the nationalist vote… Read more »
If Britain leaves the UK, Britain will thrive. The EU will continue along the road of stiffling it’s members. There will be another Greece. Maybe next time it will be Belgium. It might even be a very serious country outside the Eurozone – try Sweden – enthusiastically obedient to every form of nonsense, and sliding into a second debt nightmare. With borrowing that is now worse than that of Spain or Ireland, in 2008, Sweden will cause a crisis worse than Greece. And at least the Greeks know how to have a good time. Scotland will not leave the UK.… Read more »
If the RoI is that much richer than NI, and each worker (in the private sector anyway) is far more productive – then why are we all on 50% marginal tax rates for working ? The income in the RoI is based in mnc investment – which is based on certain sectors in the US that have high share valuations, relative to income, and who are expanding production for the sake of market share. For example Facebook, or Twitter. How much of that actually ends up in Ireland, is another matter. In other words, Ireland is kind of like Jersey.… Read more »
First of all, I am glad that we are finally discussing serious things. Secondly, David wrote a similar article some time ago (it’s good that he has returned to this issue as even if Brexit will not happen – I would be really surprised if the referendum returned a “No” vote) and it’s good that he is trying to spark off a serious debate – as even if it does not happen this time, it may as well happen next time. At that time I posed one serious question as a response to David’s unification argument. Because I do not… Read more »
An interesting article made all the more so by the author’s own personal insight. Underpinning the title of the piece is the desire of the British government to reunite Ireland as early as possible. At least as long ago as Harold (the pound in your pocket) Wilson was PM there has been a desire for reunification. The troubles delayed the possible but since peace out, reunification has been on the agenda. The brits want out, the prods want out and the paddies want out. The obvious solution is a NI free state. The alternative is a once again impoverished republic… Read more »
The only way that a united Ireland will work is for NI to get what it wishes for first.
ie an independent state once the Act of Union is disolved.
Reality will bite and then and only then will other options.
Ulster always says No before it says Yes and even then it is slow enough on the Yes.
We are a long way away from the 21st century where NI is concerned.
1014 Mike… if you knew anything about Irish history.
OK let’s get down to broad brushstroke brass tacks.
Where to start even.
Project United Ireland.
Let’s call it Project Utopia (without the robots etc)avoid offending any sensitivities.
The first thing you need is a constitution.
Here we need a lot of lateral thinking.
The project should be regarded as a road map to the future of the world.
So the constitution should be drafted with that in mind.
I’ve put the horse before the cart, we need an international project team first.
From the end of the battle of clontarf until Brian boru’s murder. Apart from that only under British rule.
David, you have mentioned Margaret Thatcher’s speech in Brugges, many times, as being the marker that defined the debate between sovereginty and the obsession with power that seems to taken over the EU. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-16/margaret-thatchers-1988-bruges-speech-explains-why-brits-should-brexit Thatcher’s words have proven very prescient. Her words have proven indicative, in a sense a warning against the road that has led us to Greeks rioting in Athens under banners insulting the German Chancellor. The problem for Ireland, is that we have a system that incentivizes loss of sovereignty that stiffles the entire society like ivy. The effect of this is that it destroys the quality… Read more »
Before you can have an independent sovereign nation you must have independent sovereign people. So far corruption rules. A corrupted people will have a corrupted governance. The European project is a corrupt organization, only ill informed ignorant people and the corrupted would want anything to do with it. If Britain does not opt out it is to be flushed down the sink hole with the rest of Europe. One big stinking mess. Ireland too. All are controlled by the bankers. The depravity is their official policy and they are expert at such enterprises. The US is now the offshore refuge… Read more »
Putting “Britain First”
https://www.britainfirst.org/racism/
There may be not much choice but to be a nation again as there is a good chance that the the economic union will collapse and the EU with it.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/financial-armageddon-looms-horizon-euro-union-implosion-nears
What’s up with the Largest bank in Europe offering savings rates higher than junk bond status.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-14/liquidity-problems-deutsche-bank-offers-5-yields-if-depositors-lock-their-money-thre
do they need reserves so desperately because they turn states evidence in the “enquiry” about fixing the precious metals market. Have they been cut off from the central bank funding.
something stinks. got gold, got silver? they are the only money without a counterparty risk.
Is it likely that the Unionists/Loyalists would war with the Irish people in an effort to re-establish partition? They rather need direct their ire at the decision makers for there is no end to the number of civilians that can be sacrificed for power and no end of immigrant replacements for any shortfall in Irish numbers. Whatever happens someone needs to think of the children and government the sh*t out of the place…and by that we all know this means extract revenue from the population in as many ways as possible as soon as the opportunity presents itself. Is it… Read more »
Identity Crisis
The Isles have an Identity Crisis .
How do you fix it ?
Where/When was the first Kingdom of The Isles ….I don’t think anyone knows and official history does not record it and why ? Unofficial history does know but you don’t know that because academic Ireland will not allow their ignorance be seen and to share with academia elsewhere on ‘the isles’ .We see Windsor as the rightful seat of unity and I do not dispute but who were their precursors ? This missing key will dictate what lies ahead and not the chieftains of the workplaces.The language may be engaging and changing within a debate but the mindsets never change… Read more »
I sincerely hope that Britain will do the right thing and leave the European union. The E.U has become nothing more than a German dictatorship which is interested only in extortion for it’s own hidden agendas. As David Cameron put it “You (A country) can not do business with the E.U”. Cameron is sick to the back teeth with the my way or the highway attitude of the E.U. Over time i can see the E.U becoming weaker and weaker because of its bent and iron fisted policies. As for Northern Ireland, it will always be an economic failure because… Read more »
Further to Deco’s comment ; “… the moral depravity that exists in Brussels …” Brussels of course at times being the collective term we use for our convenience for the The E.E.C. [ which has eventually became The E.U. ], The European Court of Human Rights [ Address ; Strasbourg, France ], European Court of Justice [ Luxembourg ] ; All fairly near near each other geographically ; All sharing common culture & languages. We should do a deep investigation of all Irish Politicians, & Irish Civil Servants, & Irish Lobbyists, & Irish Journalists, [ Male & Female ( Hetero… Read more »
Not sure if you got a genuine answer Mike, but like most European ‘nations’ ethnicity did not always mean unity, much like Germany, Italy into the 1800’s. Ireland may have eventually got there from its range of principalities but total English conquest ended that evolution in the early 1600’s.
Very interesting article from that leftie newspaper I normally won’t look at
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/16/brexit-eu-referendum-boris-johnson-greece-tory?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
This article is excellent (see piece on Germany and EU)
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/05/lefties-are-spot-on-their-precious-bbc-is-at-risk-it-may-have-to-lose-its-bias.html
The Globalists won’t let UK leave – and will do everything it can to stop a leave vote. They are desperate, even having to get that EU b***h O’Leary out to issue some nonsense threats. He is a sellout. Never forget how he influenced the last referendum in Ireland
But I know that this is one Genie which isn’t going back into it’s bottle.
Ciaran74
Your parents, like mine and everyone else’s, were entitled to vote in the 1962 and every other election since the foundation of no
Ciaran74
Your parents, like mine and everyone else’s, were entitled to vote in the 1962 and every other election since the foundation of Northern Ireland. What possible cause is served by saying they weren’t?
Or were they under 21, as voting at 18 did not come till later? Is that your explanation?
[…] because I view him as something of a role model when it comes to Devil’s Advocacy! From his latest example of both, he rightly earned a place on BBC NI Talkback […]
Unconstitutional. Its ok to act like an insider trader to rig bank share price. Its ok to overcharge customers for a stand alone variable rate product rather than have a sensible long term banking strategy where the customer is treated fairly and comes first. Contracts that have unfair bargaining power. Contracts that have vague and unclear costs. Contracts that are completely bias in favor of the (state backed) stronger party to the contracts. The 31st Dail banking strategy was all about “short term” promotion of failed Irish fucking bank share price, instead of rebuilding banks around the customer and providing… Read more »
Its about giving the central bank powers to stop unfair, vague financial products designed by failed Irish Bankers that overvalued the debt on land banks by 900%.
Its about stopping the banking sector and Irish politicians that have a feather up their arse from trying to normalise unfair, vague and unclear contracts in favor of the stronger party to the contract.
The new corrupt version of the standard variable rate product has to be stopped.
The contracts do not meet the needs and objectives of bank customers.
Northern Ireland was created as a homeland for Protestants who did not want to be part of a new republic where there would be a Catholic majority despite the fact that there was a democratic mandate of over 70% for such a republic at a UK general election in December 1918. If that kind of disregard for democratic principle in favor of religious accommodation was replicated around the world similar sectarian wars would inevitably develop wherever such a homeland is allowed. Israel was created as such a homeland for those of the Jewish religion. The result was religious conflict which… Read more »
Freemasonry Of course, this Hocus Pocus is very powerful in The Institutional State of The Irish State [ I.S.I.S. ]. And, the E.U. is simply a Freemasonry Project ; Thus, a Rothschild Project. Reckon a majority of Senior Irish Civil Servants are Freemasons. The British Freemasonry Lodges are all for the E.U. ; But, they want to be the Leaders. But, they are not in a strong enough position to be so. And, if they cannot be the Leaders of the E.U., they want out until the time when they are strong enough to be in charge of this Freemasonry… Read more »
Such a pity to hear that the bad weather and grey skies typical for the Republic are threatening to make an appearance up north. Unification would be a mistake, as things are we have a great marketing opportunity to bring in more tourists to these shores, we shouldn’t be in such a hurry to disband it, i say leave it alone. Just think the Tricolour merged together with the Union Jack on the front of the brochure – two for the price of one! Why are people always in such a rush to homogenize everything?
As it might be true to say that religionists in the North are more conservative and gay marriage has not been legalized there, why not encourage conservatives of all stripes to take up residence there in an autonomous region something like the opposite of Christiania in Denmark and similar to the town of Galt in the U.S. This would be definitely a magnet for U.S investment and a unique experiment for Europe. Everyone wins! I look forward to UK conservatives praising it as a beacon for emulation. Then everyone could smirk as the degenerates in the rest of the British… Read more »
[…] In terms of income per head, the Republic is now almost twice as rich per person as the North. A nation once again? Don’t write it off | David McWilliams Sign in or Register Now to […]
[…] represents a positive step towards subverting the continued political partition of Ireland (which will only further physically divide and impoverish Irish people, especially those in the north…) and hopefully towards undoing the sense of abandonment felt by many northerners as a result of […]
[…] represents a positive step towards subverting the continued political partition of Ireland (which will only further physically divide and impoverish Irish people, especially those in the north…) and hopefully towards undoing the sense of abandonment felt by many northerners as a result of […]