We all now know what has happened in America, but the big question is not what has happened, but why it is happening? In order to answer this question, we have to look much deeper into the campaign, the insults and the upsets. We have to explore the economic, demographic and political forces that have come together in a perfect electoral storm in the land of the free.
I can think of no better place to assess this than here in New York, in the back of an imported Korean car. I am in an Uber, driven by Sadique, who is from Bangladesh and at college by night, driving by day. We are avoiding potholes, heading uptown on 3rd Avenue towards 125th Street in Harlem, the new Times Square. Sadique has only been here for three weeks. I remember a time when you needed to know New York to drive a cab. Like London cabbies of old, you needed the knowledge, an exam and a permit. Today, all you need is a car and a smartphone with Google Maps.
Many years ago as an itinerant economics student, I too worked here. I washed dishes on Bleeker Street. Had Uber been around then, I’d probably have been an Uber driver. But would I have been heading to Harlem in the mid-1980s? I doubt it!
New York has changed — and so too has America.
Every time I visit, a new nationality is driving cabs or running corner shops. From month to month, some new app revolutionises the way something is done, from music to journalism to travel. Each disruption enriches some and impoverishes others. Just think what Uber is doing to taxi drivers. What was once permanent is now transitory, what was once secure is now fragile and what was once a full-time income is now a part-time top-up.
Geographically, the place is in a constant state of flux. Every few months, some neighbourhood is being spruced up and sold on to hipsters – the hirsute prodigal sons of investment bankers. Old tribes move on, new ones move in. All the while, asset markets go ever higher, helping the rich, who own assets, get richer, while those who depend on wages become relatively poorer and more insecure.
his bubbling witch’s brew of change, immigration, disruptive technology and winners and losers simmers away, unnoticed until suddenly it spills over to scald the US political mainstream.
This may not always be apparent, but in the same way as Irish teenagers washing dishes in the 1980s told us something about Reagan’s America, the Bangladeshi lad driving the Uber tells the story of Obama’s country.
Yet all this is changing.
Back in the 1980s, when I was toiling away in the kitchens of Manhattan earning expensive dollars to bring back home to Ireland, the Fed was right in the middle of its war on inflation. The strong dollar was an essential part of this offensive.
Beginning with Paul Volker in 1981 and for two decades thereafter, the Fed fought a campaign against inflation called “opportunistic disinflation”.
The Fed welcomed recessions when they inevitably happened, because the downturn would compress wages and prices through unemployment. A corollary of this thesis was that the Fed should pre-emptively tighten in recoveries, prompted by leading indicators of rising inflation, rather than rising inflation itself.
Such pre-emptive strikes would ‘lock in’ the cyclical disinflationary gains wrought by the preceding recession. Each recession squeezed relative wages downwards, so that when workers finally got back up following a recession, they started each new upswing at lower wages. Therefore, each recession was seen by the Fed as an opportunity to squeeze a little bit more inflation out of the system.
All the while, the working man lost out as wages fell and the corporate man gained as profits rose. Such a massive switch from labour to capital, underpinned the massive bull-run we have seen in asset prices over the past 25-odd years.
The cyclical disinflation process was boosted by two huge secular events that drove inflation permanently lower and stocks higher: the emergence of China and Nafta (the North American Free Trade Agreement) – the two bête noirs of the Trump campaign.
Both the emergence of China and the implementation of Nafta pitted the American worker not against the American capitalist but against third-world workers as US companies outsourced.
The political cost of these developments has been the gradual erosion of the working man’s wages and the marked amplification of inequality. With workers’ incomes held down by China and Mexico, a much bigger percentage of American ‘value added’ went to profit, not wages, rewarding asset owners as opposed to wage earners, allowing corporate America to drive down American wages with the help of Chinese and Mexican workers.
Back in the US, only through increased personal indebtedness could US consumption be maintained, which is what happened.
However, the social cost of so much personal debt is a heightened level of economics insecurity.
Ultimately, the Fed won its 20-year war on inflation but at a cost of greater social inequality, which would come back to dominate this presidential campaign.
The undermining of the American working- and lower middle-class was not the unintended consequence of policy; it was the aim of policy – and now America is paying for it.
This is what has happened in the US and this is what is behind this election result.
As we pull up to 125th street, Sadique is still talking cricket – a game alien to the locals. The fare is docked virtually. No money changes hands and, in the process, another faceless middleman – this time the old-fashioned bank employee – loses out.
But the downsized bank teller is not just a number. In a fractious democracy, he is another disgruntled voter, another voice for change and another frustrated ballot-box warrior demanding a new direction.
As I head towards Harlem’s famous Apollo Theatre, Sadique is already answering his next Uber client. I wonder if this intrepid young Asian has any idea the impact he, his iPhone and his ambition is having on America and how he will profoundly affect America’s future path.
“As we pull up to 125th street, Sadique is still talking cricket – a game alien to the locals”
Cricket has a long history in New York, I recommend reading Joseph O’Neill’s brilliant “Netherland” which, though a novel, features the then and now of NY cricket very prominently.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/books/review/Garner-t.html
Utopia beckons.
David you have just painted a very frightening version.
It should be a wake up call for us all.
It’s too early for an analysis but will Trumps version be more hopeful than the current path.
[ The undermining of the American working- and lower middle-class was not the unintended consequence of policy; it was the aim of policy – and now America is paying for it. ] Precisely. It is called Ponzieconomics. And the Clintons (you buy one, and the other gets thrown in for free ) are up to their necks in it. One only has to look at the donors, and endorsements. Ponzi-politics has been the dominant ideology since Gorbachev took over a weakening Soviet Union in the 1980s, in the US. And since the introduction of the Treaty of Maastricht in Europe.… Read more »
Ponzieconomics. A great word, which I shall immediately steal.
I have been following Pyjamas Media over the course of the election, and they have shown how deeply intertwined the mainstream TV news services and the Democratic Party are. News journalists are supposed to be neutral between R and D, but they have not been for the past 30 years.
If Trump is serious about the corruption that the Clintons exemplified, he should open a RICO investigation on the Clinton Foundation.
Interesting critique of Hillary Clinton by Christopher Hitchens. In my mind Hitchens has been one of the most incisive minds on politics in the US in the past two decades. Unfortunately, he did not live long enough to see the Wikileaks revelations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrzyVt1lbpo And of Bill Clinton, by Christopher Hitchens again. This time he is devastating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgSocr2DTic And that is a critique of a family who nearly got into power, despite – enormous corruption – enormous vote rigging to stop Sanders – a lifetime of lying – rather dubious links to donors – voting machines owned by one of those… Read more »
I have been following H.A. Goodman on youtube concerning this election.
His analysis of Wikileaks has been superb and devastating. He has worked extremely hard reading the releases, analyzing the content, and communicating the findings on youtube over the past few weeks.
In contrast, RTE has barely mentioned Wikileaks once in the entire campaign. We are forced to pay for such nonsense, is an outrage.
But in any case, we can always find the real story, without such wasteful entities as the official propaganda quango of the oversized institutional state.
Another super article. One after the other now. It’s like you have achieved a new level of awareness.
Fuck the Fed first. I mean that sincerely. I hope he drops one of those low yielding nukes right on top of the building and the fuckers inside it.
Michael.
[…] inflation of the 1970s that saw rising wages and rising inflation being handmaidens. Here’s how David McWilliams described the Fed’s transformation in his retrospective on Trump’s ascendancy […]
[…] of the 1970s that noticed rising wages and rising inflation being handmaidens. Right here’s how David McWilliams described the Fed’s transformation in his retrospective on Trump’s ascendancy in the present […]
Ok, so it’s time to say who got the predictions right and wrong with Trump, when I asked that question a week ago. Right: me (with specifically predicting that Trump will win Florida and that that will be decisive) Wrong: Adam Byrne, David McWilliams (by writing a few weeks ago that it now looks like Hillary win), Pat Flannery, Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin, all Irish media, most of the other countries media Abstained from predicting: the rest But Tony Brogan was the most vociferous and the earliest Trump supporter here, Truthist and Deco were also supporting Trump from early… Read more »
It will be interesting to see how things pan out once Trump has been sworn in. The first 100 days of any presidency is classed as being the so-called ‘honeymoon’period of any administration.If he sets about doing some of the things he promised to do during the election campaign it will go a long way in backing up the promises he made about changing things. I some how doubt that he’ll be able to do any of the things he promised he’d do even with majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It just goes to show… Read more »
“All the while, asset markets go ever higher, helping the rich, who own assets, get richer, while those who depend on wages become relatively poorer and more insecure.” Somebody has to own the assets. No problem with this. The established route for a wage-earner to become an asset-owner has generally been education + hard work. Also, some other routes exist, such as luck, criminality, inheritance, etc. But the way I see, education + hard work is the vehicle for the ordinary man. Ideologically, everybody should have the same access and opportunity to the desired education. Whether they chose to take… Read more »
Some specifics: “I don’t think he’s half as dumb as people think he is” – David McWilliams on Donald Trump in June: David is one THE most independent minds among the political commentators. “A Clinton victory needs to address this issue. Although Clinton promises more of the same, more of the same will not stem the groundswell of American public opinion that has driven the Trump phenomenon, and she knows this.” David McWilliams 5 weeks ago Me on September 28: “lots of people might want to vote for Mr Trump, but be ashamed to own up to it, so all… Read more »
Brexit is sinking profitability in Irish value added activity, and drive that activity to the UK. The people in charge of the institutional state are ignoring this. Low tax on profits only make sense when the supplier is making a profit. If they cannot make a profit, there is contraction in the industial system. And there is contraction in the financial system also. The dynamic is the problem, not the GDP statistical trend since 2009 (which seems to be Noonan’s main punchline). The decision makers needs to GET REAL. The business sector is now about to push the squueze back… Read more »
One thing that Trump is unlikely to do is to challenge the bankers fiat money system. The current money system as adopted over the last 100 years is a direct Ponzi scheme. I do not use that term lightly. “”noun. 1. a swindle in which a quick return, made up of money from new investors, on an initial investment lures the victim into much bigger risks. Expand. Also called Ponzi game, Ponzi scheme” The money system is a Ponzi scheme by that definition. All new money , except physical coin, is issued into existence as a loan. The significance is… Read more »
Trump whooped the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, the Washington regime & the media on his way to the White House. What will he do for an encore?
The body language of Trump & Obama after their meeting was wow – intense
Trump has publicly promised to unravel much of Obama’s legacy
Oh to have been a fly on that wall
Another fine analysis piece David What you describe are the pathological symptoms of neoliberal globalisation, financialization and market fundamentalism. It is a psychic and social disorder; potentially terminal. Capitalism cannot long survive in an unregulated anarchic state. It quickly metastasizes into a pathological cancerous affliction that consumes its host and destroys itself. Markets are supposed to serve society but today society is obliged to serve the markets; just as a human body unwittingly serves and feeds a terminal tumour. It is just going to keep getting worse and worse until eventually either our civilisation dies or we recognises the illness… Read more »
Had to Google “hirsute”
Therefore cutting out several middlemen
The Dictionary writer, printer, publisher and seller.
Ah well..
Fact of life I suppose just as I cut the barber out of a living when I became less hirsute on top.
David wrote recently (in an article for Woodford Investment): “If Trump is the answer, what is the question?” This was meant to be dismissive of Trump, and was a neat soundbite. One question for which Trump may “be” an answer is: “How does the US attract back all those tax-avoiding companies that have hightailed it to Ireland?” – something which would also, he hopes, provide many jobs for Americans now being carried out by people in Ireland. His answer would be to lower US corporation taxes. The sorts of jobs these companies have to offer could easily be filled by… Read more »
https://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2016/11/10/nyp-columnist-i-know-trump-40-years-he-keeps-his-promises/
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http://henrymakow.com/2016/11/A-Prayer-for-Donald-Trump%20.html
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Makow will be very vigilant in watching Trump.
Makow is a skeptic about Trump ; So am I [ Truthist ].
But, like all decent + wise + learned folk, there is a substantial block of Trumps manifesto that is worthy in Makow’s view.
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https://theuglytruth.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/trumping-the-new-world-order/#more-161100
Big assed Michael Moore is a nasty Ass ;
And, a super rich one too.
Hypocrite !
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“Here’s more of what we can do RIGHT NOW to stop the Trump machine before it gets started”
https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/796759209106931712
Trump says ;
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“No salary for me as President.”
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Salary is USA $ 400,000
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http://nevo.news/index.php/2016/08/25/trump-no-salary-for-me-as-president/
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I do not know how much the Taoiseach’s salary is.
Neither do I know how much The Secretary General of Department of Taoiseach is.
Anyway, if the scam is still running ;
Mickey Mouse country seemingly ==> Non Mickey Mouse salary per each of these dubious rulers over us.
Particularly noteworthy for Grzegorz Re ;
The great & talented leader Mr. Orban of Hungary
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http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/730560/Theresa-May-Viktor-Orban-EU-Brexit-Hungary-Downing-Street
America reaps a whirlwind for undermining its middle classes. America is not alone. In fact it is an international organization designed to destroy the western industrial nations and reduce us to third world status. The respect for law and peaceful governance is being deliberately undermined. Many politicians are bought and paid for as they enrich themselves at our expense. George Soros is behind this, and other demonstrations around the world, creating mayhem wherever his finger prints are found. The US is into a second day of urban center protests with vile and extreme language. Riot conditions are now being declared… Read more »
Having been the first one, and I can prove it if needed, on this blog to support Trump, you can imagine my joy at listening to the “college radio” level talent reaction of the pieces of shit on RTE as they choke on their own vomit. It is funny, they are using the big lie that it was uneducated whitey who voted Trump. Nothing could be further from the truth.
But they want to act as if they are “smarter” than Americans. HA HA. Pathetic liberal hogwash. Cant accept defeat. I hope they suffer. USA USA USA USA!
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-28/trump-tells-polish-americans-he-s-committed-to-poland-s-strength http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/279293,Poland%E2%80%99s-ruling-party-hails-Trump-victory-opposition-worried And this is from Reuters about a friend of mine, who is a co-founder of the Project Veritas and knows Mr Trump for many years (actually Matthew’s Godfather was… President Ronald Reagan himself, I kid you not): “By Lawrence Delevingne, Suzanne Barlyn and Jennifer Ablan | NEW YORK For Trump supporters who work on Wall Street, his victory is a vindication. “I’m very happy,” said Matthew Tyrmand, a private investor and contributor to the Breitbart News website, who was attending a Young Republicans party at a bar off Madison Avenue. Tyrmand, who had shorted stocks ahead of the… Read more »
Meet the bankruptcy lawyer & ex-settler who turned #Trump into “the most pro-Israel candidate this nation has seen”
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https://twitter.com/Mondoweiss/status/796734724576280577
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God help the Palestinians.
Donald Trump on 9/11: “You Will Find Out Who Really Knocked Down The World Trade Center” 6.1k Shares Posted By Tim Hains On Date February 17, 2016 Donald Trump on 9/11: “You Will Find Out Who Really Knocked… At a Wednesday morning campaign event in Bluffton, SC, Donald Trump takes his relitigation of the Bush administration’s record on 9/11 and Iraq to the next level, seeming to imply that we don’t currently know who “really” committed the 9/11 attacks. Trump says if he is elected: “you will find out who really knocked down the World Trade Center.” “It wasn’t the… Read more »
Attack On Libya Stopped by Trump Win Submitted by Joanne Moriarty on Thursday 10 Nov. 2016 – 2:39pm . Excerpt ; . . The Libyan tribes called yesterday to express their great happiness in the election Donald J. Trump to be the next President of the USA. They also wish to thank all the American people for standing up against corruption and evil. They, the people of Libya know first hand the evil that this woman is capable of by her war crimes and lies committed in 2011 to destroy their country. They have suffered for over 5 years with… Read more »
Gilad Atzmon describes the following syndrome as ;
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“Pre Traumatic Stress Condition”
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Here is one such victim suffering this syndrome since Donald Trump was elected ;
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http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/u-s-election-2016/chemi-shalev/1.752248
David in Harlem .. Harlem Globetrotters …Harlem Shuffle … Harlem’s Beards . Ah, yes, “The Beards” … sigh Surely, SIPTU General President Jack O’Connor has met George Sore-Ass personally for face-to-face pow-wow. Sore-Ass should be well pleased with the performance of Beard Jack O’Connor all these years. Here is the latest “Ireland-wrecking” from SIPTU Beard himself. SIPTU threatens major industrial unrest in New Year Minister Paschal Donohoe given 1 week to announce new pay talks Major industrial unrest is the on the cards in the New Year after SIPTU today announced plans to ballot for strike action. The country’s largest… Read more »
Posted today at http://www.lemetropolecafe.com *Bloodbath Good afternoon Midas, I guess the question today is: are THEY engineering this to finally cover? One can only hope and pray because my objective side tells me this is still all about conditioning and punishment. The debt based money system is the foundation of everything the empire does. So why would they ever stop until forced? And I hate to say this, and hope I’m wrong, but I sincerely doubt Trump will engage anyone in his cabinet capable of stopping it unless we the people make a very loud noise in the public square… Read more »
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/…..ny- persson This shall pass and the mining sector will recover and carry on. The alarming issue here is that once again an intervention has been tolerated that selects the winners and losers in the stock market. Fundamentals have been rendered useless and investment skill is trumped by corruption. The outcry in any other sector if this kind of manipulation was allowed would be shrill and unrelenting, but only in the PM sector are participants afraid to discuss this. No one wants to be considered a conspiracy guy! We saw similar abuses of the free market in 2012 and even… Read more »
More………….. Trump Bill Trump’s Appointments. What potential chaos! Clinton’s supporters are rioting in the streets, not accepting the election result, having been incited by the MSM to protest.. https://www.theguardian.com/us- news/2016/nov/10/anti-trump-protests-election-president-new- york-chicago Trump is considering appointing Dimon or Mnuchin to Treasury Sec. according to the MSM rumour mill. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in- president-trump-cabinet-231071 Both of whom are GS alumni, deeply connected to Soros and others. So if these rumours are false, then it is just MSM fighting on to the Armageddon of the Dinosaur paper press industry with their usual lies. However if Trump should fill his key posts with the same establishment elite,… Read more »
I just watched Katie Hopkins on the Late Late Show. I saw her on the programme a couple of years ago and it was hilarious. By that I mean the audience’s reaction was hilarious because, with a bit of goading, they became very sanctimonious. This time, however, it turned out that she was there as a Trump supporter. Her fellow guest was some feminist, who sounded like an American. Tubbers spent the first few minutes lecturing Hopkins, as you would expect, and told her off repeatedly for talking all the time. However, she had no choice because she was up… Read more »
From the House of George Sore-Ass : . . Sore-Ass & Co. are determined that illegal immigration from Mexico into USA continues ; And, for that objective, they just removed a famous Sheriff from Arizona. . http://forward.com/news/national/354087/did-george-soross-cash-scalp-anti-immigrant-arizona-sheriff-joe-arpaio/ . . “Agit-Prop” Tactics obviously with tacit approval of “the Establishment” / “The Dreadful Few” ; . https://therealstrategy.com/hillary-supporters-craigslist-ad-hire-time-square-rioters/#.WCTkZbZEce8.twitter . . Charities ; A perfect cover for Spies & foreign enemy directed “seditious” Agitators Aanirfan.blogspot.com regularly informs its readership that Oxfam — & they have large & widespread presence in Ireland now — is a MI5 & MI6 front ; At least in Russia,… Read more »
Trump may recruit JP Morgan CEO to be Treasury Secretary ;
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http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/regulation/donald-trump-reportedly-advised-board-jamie-dimon-treasury-secretary-cnbc/
Calls to LGBT suicide prevention hotlines ‘double’ after Donald Trump win.
Many people stressed the possible changes in policy after years of progress during the Obama administration.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-president-win-suicide-prevention-hotline-lgbt-a7411971.html
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Yes, Barrack — Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Gaza, West Bank, Guantanamo, Creation of ISIS False Flag, XX + XX Marriage & XY + XY Marriage, Transsexuals & Transvestites using bathrooms of persons of opposite chromosome pairing, Creation-Inflation of Token Currency, inter alia — was the 1st openly homosexual President of USA.
INTERESTING … INTERESTING … INTERESTING
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INTERESTING about how to protect the electorate from fraud against their voting
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Best to “copy & paste” into word-processing document & name it for what it’s true purpose is ;
Thus, readily sourced when own jurisdiction faced with similar conspiracy.
Bookmarking is advisable too.
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And, TRUMP WON THE POPULAR VOTE ;
By approx. 85 % more than Hillary Clinton too.
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Trump ; 56 %
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Hillary Clinton ; 31 %
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https://stopthesteal.org/
RON PAUL ;
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Trump should resist neocon & shadow gov’t influence to justify people’s hopes – Ron Paul to RT
Published time: 11 Nov, 2016 04:11
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https://www.rt.com/usa/366404-trump-ron-paul-crosstalk/
More oblique threats to u & me from that Erdogan of 1 of “the 2 open secrets of the Middle-East” 8-)
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Erdogan says Europe not ready to face 3mn refugees as EU-Turkey deal collapse looms
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11 Nov, 2016
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https://www.rt.com/news/366513-erdogan-threatens-europe-refugees/
https://www.facebook.com/CareyWedler/videos/1237683786302476/
Quit yer bitchin’
‘””…. Nothing else matters until Trump says that there is a new monetary sheriff in town, and that the first order of business will be to empty the Eccles Building of the job and wealth destroyers who currently occupy it.
Yes, that would cause a stock market crash in short order. But until the massive financial boil that is sucking the lifeblood out of the American economy is lanced, nothing else really matters.
https://dailyreckoning.com/trumps-true-mission-lance-boil/
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-anti-trump-protesters-are-tools-of-the-oligarchy-their-objective-delegitimize-donald-install-madam-president/5556434
The Anti-Trump Protesters Are Tools of the Oligarchy. Their Objective: Delegitimize Donald, Install “Madam President”
@adam byrne
Hi Adam,
Is it possible for me to use a service where I send an invoice in eur but receive bitcoins in return?
Michael.
Hi David,
We Libertarians now that the establishment would wage a war on cash;
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/asia-pacific/panic-in-india-as-atms-run-dry-for-third-day-in-battle-on-corruption-35209457.html
A war on corruption? My ass. A war on free citizens who won’t spend their cash the way the government want!
Coming to a city near us soon. I hope the smarter Indians split their savings between bitcoin (sky rocketing) and gold (tanking since the US election) before the inevitable.
Michael.
“60 Minutes Australia” TV Documentary Expose UK pedophiles FULL PROGRAM HD . . incl. . Kincora Boys’ Home, Belfast, North East of Ireland ; . Dolphin Square, London ; The most important “social” & “living”, zone for top Civil Servants & Politicians . . Pedophilia is background of the politico-economico-culturo establishment in : UK USA Brussels CIA-MI6-EU-Mshd nexus all major infiltrated Religious all major humanist / atheist networks ; e.g. P.I.E. ; Supporters incl. Harriet Harman ; senior British Cabinet Minister ( Deputy Leader of British Labour Party ), Patricia Hewitt ; ex MP, & Margaret Hodge [ nee Oppenheimer… Read more »
Chart giving reasons why necessary to bolster the USA-Mexico border ;
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Have a look at this Flyer ;
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