October 24, 2016

Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real

Posted in Sunday Business Post · 102 comments ·
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Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of yet another sorry saga in Irish economics and finance? Will the finance bill published Thursday, which slapped a right and proper 20% withholding tax on the profit of property funds operating in Ireland, signal a shock selling of Irish commercial property?

 

If it does, and prices tumble, we should rejoice in falling prices of commercial property in the capital. When the property market is owned by a small number of foreign funds, here to make a quick buck, falling prices benefits almost everyone who lives in the city and penalizes a few wealthy offshore outfits, whose bottom line is none of our concern.

 

It’s only fair that vulture funds are taxed on their profits when they dispose of their assets. After all, that’s what happens to the rest of us if we make a capital gain, why should structure vehicles be any different?

 

The major question is why did the Irish government give them a tax break in the first place? The prices in Ireland had fallen so low that funds needed no excuses to come in here.

 

Think about what happened over the past few years as the Euro fell against the dollar because the growth prospects of the US economy were so much better than those of the EU.

 

American vulture fund borrowed in euro and watched their borrowing cost fall as the euro exchange rate plunged. Then they took this “free” money and off they went to Ireland, where the bankrupt locals had no credit and they bought up bundles of loans from their government – the very people who are supposed to be protecting the financial interest of the Irish people.

 

Remember Nama – an agent of the state – was supposed to get credit going? Well, it is getting credit going all right – but it is foreign credit!

 

On top of this, the State gave the funds a tax break so they paid no tax on whatever capital gains they made here!

 

We became pawns in the global credit cycle, again. But this time we didn’t even bother to get a bit of tax back.

 

Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule.

 

This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out. This is their twist and this is why properties in Greenwich, Connecticut are a wee bit on the pricey side.

 

Listen, I don’t blame the funds. This is what they are mandated to do. They have to make as much lucre as they can for themselves and their shareholders. The global system is rigged and they are on the top — they fund the political campaigns and they get the codes written to suit their interests

 

So the vultures, having bought up the glittering swanky office prizes in Dublin – and with various geniuses heralding their brilliance even though it was nothing more than having access to capital at a time when our country was on the canvas – are now thinking it’s time to scarper.

 

The strategy of the funds is to buy as cheaply as possible and sweat the asset until the yield on the property rises. Once the yield or the income of the property rises, they can re-rate the price of the property upwards. In finance this is almost formulaic. But in reality it is far from a formula.

 

Re-rating the property value upwards at a time of low inflation will involve putting up rents.

 

This is exactly what has happened.

 

However, the real gravy was earned a few years back. Insiders in the business will tell you that there has been a marked slowdown in foreign interest in Irish property in the past few years as prices went ever higher. In the recent past, one broker told me they would have as many as five structured funds bidding on the same piece of commercial real estate. This year, that’s down to one or two at best.

 

Therefore, the question is whether the new tax will prompt foreigners to sell. In a way they are now trapped because the market is illiquid. It will be extremely difficult to offload commercial property now anywhere near 2015 prices.

 

Now consider what the 20% withholding tax has done to the investment model of the funds and the story these funds have told their investors.

 

Most of these funds will have gone out to the market looking for money assuming that 0% withholding tax was, like the 12% corporation tax rate, set in stone.

 

This would have generated incredible returns for investors.

 

Now that the tax has rightly been imposed, the moneymen will have to totally recalibrate their numbers for Irish investments. As the market was weakening already, this just might be the move that will trigger mass selling.

 

But they will only be able to sell if they cut prices. The vultures are now caught. This is no bad thing so long as the Irish banks don’t finance Irish investors to take the foreign funds out at these prices.

 

The natural owners of Irish property are Irish people, but there is no rush to buy yet. The foreign funds bought at a significant discount and therefore, even if prices fall, they will still be in the clover.

 

Falling commercial property prices is exactly what Dublin needs right now. With lower prices comes lower rents and with lower rents comes lower costs. If we are to be in a competitive position to take some Brexit-related business having fairly priced office space is crucial.

 

So let’s congratulate the government for finally taxing the super-normal profits of structured property vehicles and treating them like citizens of this country.

 

If they sell, so be it. If prices fall, rejoice and let investors come to Ireland for real, permanent business, not just fictitious, transitory tax breaks!


    • cyberjohn

      So why don’t we also introduce an empty house tax. Ok, it may be hard to administer but it could be done. At the same time we could reduce tax on real rental income by 20% i.e. tax it at 20%. Surely such measures in combination would lead to a recovery in rental properties and an end to homeless problem facing us etc.

  1. michaelcoughlan

    I have nothing to say except saying nothing to say about noting to say.

    Michael.

  2. No Morals , no ethics.
    changing the rules in the middle of the game.
    No there are no capital gains taxes, haha, no there are, gotcha!
    Retroactive taxes are an immoral, unethical charge.

    It will be a log time before I invest in Ireland where the rules are changed at the drop of a hat. Trickery and deceit prevail.

    • E. Kavanagh

      Ridiculous comment. The rules change all the time, and all over the place. The environment changes so the rules have to change–adapt or perish.

      In fact the rule is that all the rules can change (with an exception for criminals of course).

      Imposing a tax on profits is trickery or deceit! Letting people away with not paying their fair share of taxes; that is trickery and deceit.

      When the country was in dire need of money, and it was sensible to give incentives for foreign money to come in, then fine lower the taxes. But since those conditions don’t exist now; why would the incentives continue? Did the incentive law include any language to make people think it would remain this way forever?

      • You totally miss the point.
        People are in business or invest based on rules in existence.
        If you want to change the rules,ok but not on the current players who entered their enterprise and investment based on the rules in place.
        changing the rules, taxes, laws midstream is simply entrapment.

        “But since those conditions don’t exist now; why would the incentives continue? Did the incentive law include any language to make people think it would remain this way forever?”

        I have no problem with your question but it should apply , correctly, to the future players not those already in the game or it is corruption, gamesmanship, immoral and unethical. etc.

        If you want to change the rules in the middle of the game , be my guest, but I am out of there. Only crooks and charlatans will remain.

        • E. Kavanagh

          In fact, I totally get the point; I just don’t agree with it. It is you who is missing the point: things in life change, including tax policy.

          Smokers can’t walk into the newsagent and demand a lower price because they became addicted when excise was lower.

          One can’t phone up the Inland Revenue and complain that one wouldn’t have gone into private industry if one had known that tax rates were going to be put up.

          My retired mother had a whole bunch of benefits removed because of the Great Recession. She didn’t make any money investing or get involved in taking out dodgy loans; yet she’s paying for it. Who can she complain to that she contributed to Ireland and reasonably expected certain benefits upon retirement.

          There is no middle to this game; it is life. Things change.

          I will concede one thing: perhaps the government could have introduced this over time or given a warning that it was going to happen soon. But idea that anyone who bought between ~2008 to now would get an exemption until they sold is ridiculous. I’m sure many owners are corporations who could hold onto the property indefinitely, and per your analysis would never pay tax.

          There is one other slightly problematic solution to this. The government could say that any appreciation up to now is tax free; and going forward appreciation will be taxed at regular rates. The problem of course being what is the property worth now–but that is a problem that is frequently addressed in other areas of the tax code.

          • “There is one other slightly problematic solution to this. The government could say that any appreciation up to now is tax free; and going forward appreciation will be taxed at regular rates. The problem of course being what is the property worth now–but that is a problem that is frequently addressed in other areas of the tax code.”

            That sounds reasonable to me! A current value appraisal, by an independent property appraiser, would fix the gains and the exemption. No complaints. Grandfather clauses are used all the time.

    • “”Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of yet another sorry saga in Irish economics and finance? Will the finance bill published Thursday, which slapped a right and proper 20% withholding tax on the profit of property funds operating in Ireland, signal a shock selling of Irish commercial property?”"

      It means that the funds will hold longer than ever so slowing the release of the properties to the market. The 20% tax means the profit will have to be 25% higher encouraging a longer holding period and higher prices.
      The Law of unintended consequences comes to mind.

      The more government is involved with things economic the worse the economy becomes. All decisions have to have a political reasoning rather than an economic one.

      When are you going to understand that that there has never been a government that ran a successful economy?

  3. I can’t help but wonder why you have such different attitudes toward these foreign investors and the tax-dodging corporations who also drive your prices up, but whom you defend like Mother Bear.

    They’re all pirates — ruthless, remorseless demons of greed preying on decent people everywhere, causing untold suffering and deaths literally in the tens of thousands every day, when you count those countries where people routinely starve, drink poisoned water and get droned.

    I don’t mean to seem combative, but really you’ve been out of touch lately with general sentiment concerning corporate malefaction. Sure, I loathe the vulture funds(right now most of all for Singer’s rape of Argentina), but I loathe the rest of these pirates, too. As does everybody I know.

    • Grzegorz Kolodziej

      Because the US companies like Apple or Google, despite all that ride they are having with our corporation tax, employ 140,000 people in Ireland, while the property vulture funds are just a tax on the economy just shrink the disposible incomes of people in this country. I would compare Apple to an American Pit Bull Terrier that is a bit contrary and eats too much, but ultimately your household is safer with it (see what happened to the Deutsche Bank when the Jerries and Frogs became too bullish?) – and vulture funds to rats.

      What? No, not you, Katherine – I was talking to the other Katherine ;-)

  4. Grzegorz Kolodziej

    “The major question is why did the Irish government give them a tax break in the first place? The prices in Ireland had fallen so low that funds needed no excuses to come in here.”

    I am all ears. Who made the decision, was it voted in the Dáil, who voted for it and why.

    “are now thinking it’s time to scarper.” – pray, vulture funds, on yer bikes. No love lost, except for parts of D4 (the old D4). As I said before – what is a property bubble in its essence? It is an extra tax on the real economy.

    “American vulture fund borrowed in euro and watched their borrowing cost fall as the euro exchange rate plunged. Then they took this “free” money and off they went to Ireland” – if we substitute “borrowed in euro” into “deposited in zloties”,

    and we substitute

    “took this “free” money and off they went to Ireland”

    into

    “came from the East Coast and Germany, pocketed the difference between the Polish zloty’s 90% exchange rate and the freeze on the dollar-zloty exchange rate, while the interest rate on credit borrowing for small businesses went up from 8% to 40% in breach of the intitial terms and conditions”, we can describe the nature of the IMF’s help to Poland in 1990 in one sentence.

    In other words, the tricks played on Ireland are a variation of the 1989 Balcerowicz-Sachs plan in Poland. Nihil novi sub sole.

    “If they sell, so be it. If prices fall, rejoice and let investors come to Ireland for real, permanent business, not just fictitious, transitory tax breaks!”

    A m e n.

    I hope a cleaner prints that sentence in the largest font possible and puts it on Minister Michael Noonan’s desk. Have the Minister finally done something substantially good for his country? Well, fair play to him.

    The main problem with the Leprechaun economics was that Leprechauns do not really exist and the second problem is that if they do, my befriended Irish mythology nerd tells me that they are meant to be malicious anyway and that the “endearing Leprechauns” gig is only for the stupid tourists (says him, not me).

    • Grzegorz Kolodziej

      Have the Minister = has the Minister. My bad.

      Minister is not a King (Dr Wolgang Schauble is) and the Royal “we” should not be used while writing about him (Capablanca got so conceited having won the chess world title that he started using it!) – though looking at him, some of us might think otherwise.

  5. goldbug

    WHERE IS ABORTION AGENDA COMING FROM?

    - GEORGE SOROS

    - BILL GATES

    - WARREN BUFFET

    -> WHAT KEEP THEM AWAKE AT NIGHT?

    => TOO MANY UNBORN CHILDREN IN THE WORLD?

    http://www.churchmilitant.com/news/article/watch-the-full-show-the-downloadbillionaires-funding-evil

    • Truthist

      Ref.
      http://www.lifenews.com/2016/10/24/hillary-clinton-is-wrong-obgyn-says-abortion-is-never-necessary-to-save-the-life-of-the-mother/

      Extract ;

      Hillary Clinton is Wrong :
      Obstetrics & Gynecology Netwrok [ OBGYN ] says Abortion is never necessary to save the life of the mother

      A lot of false & misleading information about late-term abortions is circulating around the internet after Hillary Clinton defended them during the last presidential debate.
      Clinton, a pro-abortion Democrat, told the American public that she supports late-term & partial-birth abortions.
      However, she tried to gain sympathy for her radical position by implying that most of these abortions are done when a woman’s life or health is at stake or when the baby has major health problems.
      In the days after the debate, abortion advocates produced a slew of expert comments & personal stories to support Clinton’s statements.
      One of the lies they have circulated is that late-term abortions are performed only in the rarest situations when the mother or child has physical health problems.
      Research does not support this, & several late-term abortion practitioners have admitted that women do have late-term abortions for “purely elective” reasons.
      Dr. Lawrence Koning, an OB-GYN in Corona, California, said Clinton also is wrong about late-term abortions being necessary to save a woman’s life or health, according to Christian News Network.
      “As an OB/GYN physician for 31 years, there is no medical situation that requires aborting/killing the baby in the third trimester to ‘save the mother’s life,’” Koning wrote on social media after the debate.
      Just deliver the baby by C-section & the baby has 95+% survival with readily available NICU care even at 28 weeks.
      C-section is quicker & safer than partial birth abortion for the mother.”
      There does appear to confusion between the premature delivering of a baby via induced labor or C-section & the intentional killing of a late-term baby either in or partially outside of the womb (partial-birth abortion).
      Both are being called abortions, but the situations are very different.
      With the first situation, the intention is to save as many lives as possible; the other situation involves purposefully killing a life.
      With the current debate, some abortion advocates are taking advantage of the misunderstanding to imply that pro-lifers oppose doctors’ actions in both situations & don’t care if women die.
      In the case of induced labor, doctors are doing the best they can to save both the mother & the child.
      Unfortunately, sometimes the baby is too young to survive outside the womb, & only the mother’s life can be saved.
      Pro-lifers are not opposed to this procedure that some are calling an “abortion.” What pro-lifers oppose is the willful, intentional & usually brutal destruction of that baby’s life in an abortion.
      And it is this intentional killing method that Koning & other doctors, including former U.S. Surgeon General C. Everett Koop, said is not necessary to save lives.
      Koop, a pediatric surgeon, said: “When a woman is pregnant, her obstetrician takes on the care of two patients—the mother-to-be & the unborn baby.
      If, toward the end of the pregnancy complications arise that threaten the mother’s health, he will take the child by inducing labor or performing a Caesarian section.
      “His intention is still to save the life of both the mother & the baby.
      The baby will be premature.
      The baby is never willfully destroyed because the mother’s life is in danger.”
      The Association of Pro-Life Physicians also contends that doctors never have to willfully kill an unborn child in an abortion to save a woman’s life.
      “When the life of the mother is truly threatened by her pregnancy, if both lives cannot simultaneously be saved, then saving the mother’s life must be the primary aim,” according to the doctors association.
      If through our careful treatment of the mother’s illness the pre-born patient inadvertently dies or is injured, this is tragic &, if unintentional, is not unethical & is consistent with the pro-life ethic.
      But the intentional killing of an unborn baby by abortion is never necessary.”
      Sadly, the mainstream media often perpetuates abortion activists’ claims that women’s lives do not matter to the pro-life movement.
      They do.
      Pro-lifers want to save lives, including women & children.
      Both matter equally to us, & it’s equally heartbreaking when medical emergencies cause a human life, born or unborn, to die.

      • McCawber

        We all want to save lives.

        • Truthist

          Not true ;
          Some sick people — incl. some / many who inveigh themselves into the field of Hippocrates — a truly noble physician & teacher — do not.
          Ditto the religious field.
          .
          Sorry for seeming to be awkward ;
          Had to qualify ur “full glass” assertion.
          But, ur sentiment is nonetheless very much appreciated & noted Mr. McCawber.
          8-)

          • McCawber

            Ah but I didn’t say all the time just more as a preferred option unless there are extenuating circumstances.
            Eg I do not want to die in agony ergo…….While I might want to save my life niw that may not always be the case.

          • Truthist

            Of course, the type of “some sick people” that I was diplomatically referring to are “evil people”.
            And, there are a lot more than u would hope is the dreadful limit.

  6. Peter Atkinson

    They’ve just changed the rules on the blackjack table in the Irish casino to favour the house. The gamblers will just move on up the road to the next casino. Don’t worry they’ll be back when the house realises the error of their ways. The rest of us just act as table waiters hanging on the hope of a tip.

    • McCawber

      The house makes the rules.
      This isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last that the house changes the rules.
      The vulture capitalist will simply take the view it was great while it lasted and move on.
      Probably having a quiet chuckle to themselves that it took the house so long to realise that NAMA was one hell of an unintended consequence.

  7. “There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil, to one who is striking at the roots.” … Henry David Thoreau, 1846

    All these economic and fiscal adjustments mean nothing in the overall scope of things if the inherent evil of the Central Banking debt based fiat money system is never addressed.

  8. http://usawatchdog.com/trump-is-molotov-cocktail-you-can-throw-on-crooked-system-catherine-austin-fitts/

    “Then, when he said if I were the President, you’d be in jail, I said that’s it, I am giving money to Donald Trump because that is the first time I have ever seen someone of national prominence on corporate media hold the leadership accountable for their actions.”

    • After the Interview:

      Fitts also says, “A serious debt crisis can happen at any time before or after the election. We just don’t know when it will happen, but it will happen. The current group of people grew up on financial fraud. You have to change the leadership for real change.”

  9. http://www.rense.com/general79/tril.htm

    “”The Illuminati’s cash cow, grazing freely on the World wide pasture of greenbacks, isn’t called “Elsie” but instead is called the Global Security Fund, a name actually meaning in the secret cult’s language Global Terrorist Fund. In simple terms, it’s a gigantic illegal trust fund, estimated by undercover overseas financial investigators at 65 trillion dollars, set-up for “Illuminati rainy days” and established when it is desperately needed in a pinch for bribery, assassinations and sponsoring World wide terrorist activities to divert attention from their banking mafia. Although the fund is cloaked in secrecy and made possible by the Western civilization’ s Federal Reserve banking system, investigators trying to pry into the Illuminati’s secret treasure trove have uncovered some interesting facts.”"

    http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2007/12/02/18464823.php

  10. Truthist

    Headline ;
    .
    If there were years of unfair budgets, it was due to the chaos caused when [ Fianna Fail leader Mr. Me-hole ] Martin was a minister*
    .
    *
    Redacted by Truthist for clarity purposes
    .
    .
    http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/shane-coleman/if-there-were-years-of-unfair-budgets-it-was-due-to-the-chaos-caused-when-martin-was-a-minister-35159157.html
    .

    • Deco

      We need answers concerning the “accident” that prevented Liam Lawlor from giving evidence, when Lawlor reached the pointed that Lawlor was begining to crack, and started feeling remorse.

      A rather ‘convenient’ accident occurred. No maFFia do ended up in jail.

      Moscow is a good city for “accidents”, because the cops are corrupt.

      • Truthist

        The Irish State’s “Guards” are more corrupt than Russia’s.
        .
        As a block, the Garda-Landlords / Landlord-Gardai are in cahoots with the HEROIN Dealers in the major cities of Irish State to deliberately turn a blind-eye to the dealing & pushing of H.
        They are “on the take”.
        .
        I initially got that info. from “the horse’s mouth” ;
        vis.
        a very honorable & brave Civil SERVANT “on the ground” in Dublin some years ago.
        I purposely held back to let some poster here say it firstly ;
        But, to no avail.
        So, I tell it now because these very same block of CROOKS are bullying the Irish nation, & the foreigners working here also, to pay them even more monies in excess of the typical private sector salaries for theoretically comparable responsibility & effort.
        .
        Also, this year a politician from Fianna Fail personally confirmed to me this state of affairs to be a FACT that the politicians know about but are unwilling to challenge the Guards with.
        .
        Rapidly exploding numbers of populace on H should cause great devaluation of properties.
        I trust that the “vulture funds” are now aware of this scenario, & that this may be their main reason to ditch their properties.
        .
        Ass-piring Taoiseach to be Mr. Me-Hole Martin surely knows ;
        So, why does not the leader of the largest party in opposition not reveal this fact to the nation ?

        • E. Kavanagh

          What a load of stupid crap.
          No facts; all hearsay.

          And of course there are corrupt guards; but to suggest that the entire operation of the Garda Siochana is a corrupt organisation is ridiculous.

          That you would say there are over 13,000 cops out there in league with heroin dealers, erases any semblance of the minuscule amount of credibility you may have had.

          I really can’t begin to express how much of a moron I think you are.

          • Truthist

            Ad hominem again from u “E”.
            .
            I have my grave doubts that u are not a Guard too.
            Many are plaguing the internet now for to drum up support for their unjustified demand to get even more mega-bucks than the typical private sector worker does.

        • McCawber

          Re your first line.
          Golden rule – never shit on your own doorstep.

  11. Truthist

    Re ; Example of Government interference in the market
    Please note ;
    I Truthist argue that there is sometimes need for government to intercede in the market.
    .
    .
    Headline ;
    Crying Over Spilled Milk

    Blurb ;
    A swiftly growing industrial dairy industry in the US has created a milk glut. With millions of gallons of excess milk and no interested buyers, farmers are dumping the milk and watching prices tank. It represents just one more downfall of the US industrialized, centralized food system.

    Hyperlink ;
    http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2016/10/25/dairy-industry-milk-glut.aspx?utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art3&utm_campaign=20161025Z1&et_cid=DM123616&et_rid=1725739170

  12. Deco

    [
    Listen, I don’t blame the funds. This is what they are mandated to do. They have to make as much lucre as they can for themselves and their shareholders. The global system is rigged and they are on the top — they fund the political campaigns and they get the codes written to suit their interests
    ]

    Actually i blame the courts for not imprisoning corrupt politicians.

    Why are there so many maFFia gnagsters on state pensions, after banrupting this country, and betraying it’s people repeatedly ?

    • Truthist

      Well, seeing that the media is also rigged against Trump such that they are “throwing the book against him” for relatively trivial stuff, if the sauce is good enough for the duck / Donald Trump, well it should be good it should be good enough for the goose / Hillary Clinton.
      So, here goes.
      Have a good read of this short enough feature.
      It offers a very interesting insight into Bill Clinton & Hillary Clinton.
      This mistress — a lawyer — of Bill’s is one of the better lookers too.
      .
      http://radaronline.com/celebrity-news/hillary-clinton-lesbian-claims-dolly-kyle-tell-all/?utm_source=Outbrain2&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=SpecialPush&utm_term=435197
      .
      By the way, Miles Mathis has somewhat of a different angle on Bill Clinton & Hillary Clinton.
      His prompt is Monica Lewinsky.
      Here it is ;
      A downloadable PDF document it so happens to be for ur added convenience.
      .
      http://mileswmathis.com/lewin.pdf
      .
      .
      Mathis is a very skilled writer.
      After reading his views on certain folks & events, u will undoubtedly be more open-minded about them.
      A theme that Mathis is frequently asserting is that most of the players & happenings stretching back into many different milieux are really the craftings of the applicable “Intelligence Services”.
      Mathis is also a highly accomplished realist visual artist [ incl. portrait painting ].
      And, thus he also is skilled at uncovering faked photos & paintings as is Chris Spivey of chrisspivey.org.
      .
      Spivey’s most frequent theme is that most of the news & players are fake.

      • Truthist

        Apologies for some typos.

      • E. Kavanagh

        Another load of complete crap. If we stopped indulging this rubbish we could probably have a significant jump in GDP.

        • Truthist

          From the time I posted the post until the time u posted ur unwarranted reply, there is absolutely no way could u have read those articles that I linked to.
          Again, u contradict urself ;
          Just like u did more than once in the discussion to previous article.
          And, for sure, u now show urself to be a troll.
          U are very inclined to get hot around ur blue-shirt collar indeed aren’t u “E” [ the Guardian of the Guards ] about :
          “H” ;
          the known fact about the Guards
          & also
          Hillary Clinton & Bill Clinton ;
          Both known to be involved in serious drug-running into USA whilst in Arkansas ]

          • E. Kavanagh

            You are right and you are wrong. The Radar article is pure BS. It is a minute of my life that you owe me back. It is pure tabloid crap. There are no facts. It is just gossip about events from years past. It is just a Swift Boat type attack on Clinton. If you want to attack Clinton do it with substantive issues; there is plenty out there.

            Regarding the Mathis article, I got through about 6-pages; laughed my ass off; and then wrote my comment.

            Parsimony (Occam’s Razor), facts, critical thinking, not defaulting to the conspiracy theory; you fail each of these tests.

            I am not, nor have I ever been, a Garda.

  13. Deco

    David, you are bang on the money.

    Ireland cannot afford any more ponzi-economics. We are being pummelled in competitiveness, as things stand. The productive economy is under seige, and we cannot afford any more ‘something4nothing’ nonsense.

    Brexit is a competitive challenge. 4 months on from Brexit, and the politicians have still not joined the dots on this one.

    Machine party politicians have spent decades entertaining fantasies about Brussels, and shoving through badly thought out policies, that were built on flawed assumptions.

    They are only capable of PR stunts. They are not capable of figuring out what is going on. They really are just collections of hereditary chancers, who get more incompetent with each ‘inheritance’ of the family seat.

    Ross Perot comes to mind. Outside the mnc sector, there is a giant vacuuming draught pull. And that is business margins being moved east of the Irish sea, and north of the border.

    Classic example – The Irish mushroom sector is based in Monaghan. Surrounded on three sides by NI, and largely exporting to Britain. And it is squeezed in a bench vice, and the moment. They are confronted by non-existent margins, and ridiculous scamming of road freight. [ and forget about rail freight as an eco option - there are no trains in Monaghan ]. Ireland’s freight costs are a massive problem for the regions which are now in the most trouble from British competitiveness.

    Remember British firms currently have
    - better balance sheets on aggregates than at any time since John Major was in Number 10.
    - better margins
    - scale
    - politicians that back them, and that back all regions of Britain
    - lower energy costs
    - a more competitive supplier/subcontractor environment.

    On the negative side, certain banks are still not fixed, and London/SE real estate is overvalue. But low margin Irish manufacturing is not competing with London. And the IFSC will lose to Amsterdam, before it makes any ground on London.

    Meanwhile, Bertonomics returns to view, and sends toxic fumes in the direction of the public finances.

  14. Deco

    I actually think there is something very funny about the Donald Ducks. of course, Trump supporters are riled.

    But it is actually very funny. It is entertaining.

    Here is a grate idea. [ pun intended].

    I think we should all put on Bertie costumes and show up at the FF Ard Fheis. With the obvious options for atire being anaroks or canary yella suits. And maybe carrying massive oversized brown envelopes.

  15. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  16. dwalsh

    The spectacle of a a small number of foreign vulture funds, here to make a quick buck, dominating the Irish property market makes one wonder about globalisation – or at least the current neoliberal form of globalisation.
    I am all for a rational and humane globalisation; but allowing our world, our nations and our societies, to be dominated by a handful of transnational corporations (which are essentially private global empires) is not rational and will not produce democratic or humane societies.
    The current transnational trade deals being negotiated in secret are designed to erode the sovereignty and democracy of nations and favor the transnational elite owning classes who operate beyond the law and effectively dominate our world.

  17. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  18. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  19. “Re-rating the property value upwards at a time of low inflation will involve putting up rents.”

    It seems to me that this statement is backwards.
    The rental market, is just that a market.
    Rents can only go up if there is a tenant ready to pay. Rents cannot be arbitrarily raised just to revalue a building.
    If the prospective tenant(s) is not willing or able to pay and the asking price is or remains too high then the property will remain vacant.

    Thus the rental market drives property values and not the other way around. If the building is empty it is valueless as an investment.

    At some point as rental prices fall there will be a tenant willing to rent a space. Thus there is now a cash flow to the building. Using the desired return on investment as a discount rate the value of the building can be calculated. The expected return on investment will affect the property value. The lower the expected rate of return the higher the value of the building and vice versa.

    If the value of the building as occupied is calculated to be less than the replacement cost of a new building there will be no new construction. Rental values determine the value of a building. Rising rents depend on the ability of the tenant to continue to to pay the rent. This ability depends on the business enterprise to be profitable. Profitability depends on the expertise of the business owner and the economy.

    On aggregate the value of the building is determined by the strength or weakness of the economy. The value of a completed building governs the value of the land on which the building is sited. Empty undeveloped properties are therefore the result of a poor economy.

    The vulture funds were in part relying on an improving economy to see the property values increase. They were speculators. Speculators have a valid function in the market place. They absorb at the bottom of a market by investing expecting future profits. Thus the market stops declining because of the actions of speculators. At the top of a market the speculator will sell putting product on the market, thus stopping the market from rising even more. A successful speculator is a regulator on the excessive movement of pricing both up and down.

    The speculator is not the problem. It is other things affecting the overall market. “Vulture” funds, so called, should be welcomed not castigated.

  20. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  21. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  22. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  23. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  24. http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2016/Misc/Global_Gold_Outlook_Report_Nr__16.pdf

    The essential differences between Trump and Clinton.

    “I say, we should trust the followers… It is clear that a majority of Trump voters are striving to
    defend the essence of the constitution and what it originally used to be – the basis for a free
    society based on the right to be independent from government intervention in our private
    lives. And this is for me, as a believer in civil rights and sovereignty, enough to give him or,
    better said, his voters, the benefit of the doubt.”

  25. [...] Finance Bill – We’re finally keeping it real â?? McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  26. [...] Finance Bill – We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  27. Truthist

    Here is a string of very interesting & useful links [ but, minus the "www" & "https" prefixes each ], refering to the 2 main candidates for USA president, from Henry Makow’s — http://www.henrymakow.com — tweets.
    .
    Outcome of that election sure will affect the economy of Ireland.
    And, thus the ability of the typical citizen to :
    buy / rent land
    buy / rent dwelling
    buy / rent business premises
    .
    Therefore, it is vital that u make the most patriotic Irish case to ur friends about to vote in actual USA itself to chose Trump.
    Utilise :
    Phone calls
    Emails
    Postcards
    Letters
    .
    Incidentally, we should have done so for to extricate Irish nation from the ridiculous guaranteeing of the private bank debt decision.
    Instead, we continue to get more rolled over by the likes of Democrat Party’s Timothy Geithner.
    .
    TRUMP IS GOING TO SMASH THE BANKSTERS.
    THAT IS WHY THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT IN USA & IRISH STATE HATE HIM.
    .
    Be honest & clear.
    Avoid dictatorial approach.
    Ditto the patronising approach.
    Be charming.
    .
    .
    twitter.com/P226_Sig/status/790952292564475904/photo/1

    Here is a very rare example of photo showing Hillary Clinton engaged in natural smiling ;
    Otherwise, Hell-ary is such a fake & phony as we know her.

    The photo is of her days at Wellesley College ;
    Quite revealing about Hillary [ character & all ], to say the least.
    .
    .
    westernjournalism.com/trump-surges-to-23-point-lead-in-poll-from-clintons-former-home-state/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=PostSideSharingButtons&utm_content=2016-10-25&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
    .
    Yes ; Hillary Clinton is hated in Arkansas.
    .
    Excerpt ;
    .
    Voters who have known the Clintons the longest seem to like Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton the least, according to a new poll.

    A poll of Arkansas voters released Monday shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leading Clinton by 56 percent to 33 percent.

    Several daily tracking polls show Trump in the lead, or the candidates within a few points of each other. A few mainstream media national polls showing Clinton with a wider lead
    .
    .
    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=731_1477394218
    .
    Video
    .
    Blurb ;
    .
    Evidence Hillary and Bill Clinton Destroyed Haiti
    Bill Clinton along with George Bush was directed by President Obama to spearhead the charity efforts for the rebuilding of Haiti.
    Hillary Clinton was Secretary Of State at the time.
    And, her Clinton Foundation was a primary charity organization.
    .
    .
    newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/rich-noyes/2016/10/25/mrc-study-documenting-tvs-twelve-weeks-trump-bashing
    .
    Bashing
    By Rich Noyes
    25 October 2016
    .
    Excerpt ;

    In the 12 weeks since the party conventions concluded in late July, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has received significantly more broadcast network news coverage than his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.
    But nearly all of that coverage (91%) has been hostile, according to a new study by the Media Research Center (MRC).

    In addition, the networks spent far more airtime focusing on the personal controversies involving Trump (440 minutes) than about similar controversies involving Clinton (185 minutes).
    Donald Trump’s treatment of women was given 102 minutes of evening news airtime, more than that allocated to discussing :
    Clinton’s e-mail scandal (53 minutes)
    &
    the Clinton Foundation pay-for-play scandals (40 minutes) combined.

  28. E. Kavanagh

    Trump is the wrong choice in this election; and probably most elections, unless it’s for clowns or racists or sexists. Certainly Clinton is flawed, but she’s better than him.

    Even if you hate Clinton, the most important reason to pick her over Trump is that over the next 8-years, there will very likely be 4 US Supreme Court nominations and maybe more. The next US President will be shaping judicial decisions for a generation. And while Trump would surely make things interesting; he clearly has a flawed pedigree.

    • Grzegorz Kolodziej

      “Trump is the wrong choice in this election; and probably most elections, unless it’s for clowns or racists or sexists. Certainly Clinton is flawed, but she’s better than him.”

      Hmm…

      1. “Fucking Jew bastard!” – Mrs Hillary Clinton on her campaign manager Paul Fray in 1974

      2. “Super-predators”
      “We have to bring them to heel”

      Mrs Clinton as First Lady, in public, on blacks

      3. “I love this quote. It’s from Mahatma Gandhi. He ran a gas station down in St. Louis for a couple of years. Mr. Gandhi, do you still go to the gas station?” – Mrs Clinton public statement on Gandhi (who was himself a racist)

      4. In 2008, Mrs Clinton distributed a picture of Senator Obama in full Muslim garb

      5. On a black radio show, Hillary pandered to black voters by claiming she always carries hot sauce in her purse:

      http://downtrend.com/71superb/hillary-clinton-panders-blacks-by-saying-she-carries-hot-sauce-in-her-purse

      The whole Clinton v Trump coverage (i.e. sexual fantasies some women have about Mr Trump, like that he was like an octopus on the airplane – except there are some witnesses who remember that it was the other way round) reminds me of an interview Der Spiegal has recently carried out with the Polish Trotskyite, Mr Adam Michnik.

      In that interview, Mr Michnik licks the arse of German readers by crying over all those Nazis who had been expelled from Silesia after WWII. To add some credibility to his hoorism, he says that… his parents died in the Holocaust (in fact, it was his family who was doing the killing). `

      I would not describe myself as Mr Trump’s supporter. Old readers would remember I supported Mr Ben Carson, and then Mr Ted Cruz. I think any of them would have won with Mrs Clinton. Even today, I still have some doubts whether Mr Trump was not pumped up by the Democrats and their media first to be attacked later, because out of all Republican candidates, he was the easiest opponent.

      However, if someone wants to pick the Yenta Princess over Mr Trump, surely it cannot be on moral grounds.

      My question to Mrs Clinton supporters is this:

      Is there any level of corruption from Mrs Clinton that you would not accept?

      • Grzegorz Kolodziej

        Der Spiegel:

        “Would you say that it was barbarian to deport them (German Nazis – G.K.)?

        Michnik – And what else?

        Der Spiegel:

        If someone said that in Germany, it would be a scandal.

        Michnik – That’s why I – a Pole whose parents died in Holocaust – have to say it”

        Truth:

        Mr Michnik’s father (his true name was Osiash Shechter) was an NKVD agent who died in Warsaw in 1981.

        His mother (born Hinde, also NKVD agent, after WWII a secret service) died in 1969.

        His brother Stefan Michnik tortured and murdered Polish underground fighters after WWII and lives safely in Sweden.

        Mr Adam Michnik was a chief editor of the most influential Polish daily in the 90s, “Gazeta Wyborcza”, currently owned by Mr George Soros (who sponsors the KOD and abortion marches in Poland).

      • E. Kavanagh

        You are right, Clinton is an awful candidate; just not as bad as Trump.

        Your ending question should be addressed to the vast majority of Yanks and should read, “Is there any level of corruption from Republicans or Democrats that you would not accept?”

        And I will put in a little twist here: where both candidates are equally bad (or good) there is something positive to be said for voting for the minority candidate (or perceived minority candidate), if that characteristic is not reasonably well represented i.e. give her the nod because she’s a woman.

        And of course not voting or voting for a 3rd party candidate are good ways to protest the flaws of the major candidates.

        • Grzegorz Kolodziej

          “Is there any level of corruption from Republicans or Democrats that you would not accept?”

          Probably not.

          It’s interesting that political divisions in many countries are now running not so much along the traditional left – traditional right lines, but more along the establishment candidates v anti-establishment candidates lines (regardless if they are really anti-establishment or not).

          Just look at the UK: Tories have practically merged with Blairites while there much less bad blood between Corbynites and Faragists than between the former two parties.

          And on the same lines as Corbynites pretend that immigration or Jihadi sermons in British mosks are not a problem, UKiP pretended that the 90bn pounds tax breaks for the City were not a problem: the former blamed the “free” market for everything, the latter blamed the EU immigrants for everything (of course Mr Farage is too cowardly to blame to native radical islamists).

          Mr Corbyn was for more regulations, Mr Farage for less, but neither Corbyn and UKiP were against the Bank of England and Mr Mark Carney. I am sorry, but if someone thinks that one can solve the country’s debt problem by halving the interest rates, I tend to look at him as either incompetent to run a country or a bit of a fraudster.

          Same in the US – Messrs Sanders and Trump have much more in common with each other than Mr Trump with Mr Jeb Bush or Mr Sanders with Mrs Clinton (and mainstream media have much more in common with Dr Joseph Goebbels than with serious journalism – I really recommend a biography of Joseph Goebbels written by Mr David Irving, based on Dr Goebbels diaries – thereis NOTHING that Dr Goebbels media did that the likes of CNN WOULD NOT DO), I am hearing from people in the US that Mr Kasich, a sort of a guy I thought I would vote for, told his people to agitate against Mr Trump around houses – do you still blame Mr Trump for saying that the elecion might be rigged (which is what Mr Sanders was saying)?

          Same in Poland – all the media, including all the Irish media, think that PiS (the Law and Justice) victory last year was primarily against the immigration (as if the pre-partitions Poland was not one of probably 4 only successful multicultural countries in the world, along with the US – Thomas Jefferson modelled himself on the writings of Grzymala-Goslicki, and so did Monteaquieu and Shakespeare – the latter even used quotes from his De Optimo Senatore in his Hamlet, Australia and New Zeland), because they – the journalists – believe in their own cliches and are too lazy to read the primary sources, so they transplant the reasons for Brexit into the Polish political landscape.

          The same Kaczynski, who is against immigration, does mind 1 million Ukrainians who have recently emigrated to Poland – his victory was in lion’s share against the CORRUPTION, and V4 resistance against the new wave of “refugees” was driven by security concerns, in which V4 turned out to be 100% right and the Carolingian Europe 100% wrong (which even the likes of Merkel and Juncker had to finally admit – to justify their plans of deportation).

          All of that, considering for different reasons in different countries, is a mass movement against the establishment. Whoever says that this is a rise of the far right, has his or her brain totally brainwashed and is unable to use it to his/her own analysis (i.e. in Greece, the anti-establishment movement was a radical left movement – I have to say, that although I was a co-author of David’s article on the Greece and the London Debt Agreement, at the same time I have also been extremely critical of the Greeks as a society – unlike the Poles, the Irish, Germans to an extent – the Greeks never attempted an intellectual effort that would make clear to them that their w h o l e s o c i a l t i s s u e is uncompetitive – blaming external factors for it, even though their debt repayments were actually much less than what Poland was paying while receiving similar debt reductions).

          Where I think both me and you would agree is that the anti-establishment movements tend to be more populist – Greece is an extreme example, but also Mr Trump, Sinn Fein, UKiP and PiS in Poland (though the reasons for the latter are trivial – Mr Kaczynski does not dig the economy, and sadly he nominated a Finance Minister who is totally in the hand of the London City; Polish Foreign Minister btw turned out to be so incompetitive with PR that Mr Kaczynski had to nominate… a US citizen as the Foreign Deputy Minister, Mr Robert Grey, which initially prompted jokes in Poland that Mr Grey’s nomination has 50 shades around it).

          So Trump is a populist (not so much as Madame Le Pen or Syriza – who now suddenly became pro-EU because Marxism always fails – but more than Messrs Orban or Kaczynski),

          but

          whether that would make me to give a nod to Hillary because she is a woman – probably not.

          And btw, it amazes me how inefficient Mr Trump turned out to be during the debates. Even though he probably won the third debate, all I would do when confronted with an accusation that I did not pay loans to banks, is to say: “yes Hillary, I did not pay the banks as a developer and I will not pay them as a President” – and for every one of Hillary sewer provocations I would have a killer like that one I came up with just now.

          I think that at the end of the day, the tragedy of the establishment crooked parties v anti-establishment populist parties is that they do not really know how to fix the system.

          Donald knows the system is rigged but does not know how to fix it.
          Hillary knows the system is rigged but does not want how to fix it.

          None of them read Bastiat (furthemore, no Frenchman I ever met read Bastiat – btw, the French are probably the second most deluded society in the EU after Greeks), who wrote:

          “When fraud becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorises it and a moral code that glorifies it.”

          • Grzegorz Kolodziej

            Hillary knows the system is rigged but does not want how to fix it. = but does not want to fix it

            Btw, apparently Hillary people approached Fox to dim the light so that Mr Trump looks like Rasputin and Clinton looks like a ray of hope – but Fox did not, so Hillary, in her resplendent white uniform, ended up looking like Joseph Stalin.

  29. mike flannelly

    ” The rental market, is just that a market.” – Tony.

    Like a broken drum I ask what is
    ” A REAL MARKET “?

    Market v Rigged Market (red carpet for insiders)

    Market (that identifies real value costs) v False Market

    In fairness to David I think he is acknowledging the fact at last that simply calling everything does not cut it anymore. The term the market cannot be used as an excuse for either a false market or a rigged market.

    We are blue in the face asking the trinity daft guy as to what are rents versus the net incomes of different groups of tenants.

    What are rents versus borrowing costs?

    Setting a rent that is crystallizing a loss against no profits is not real.

    Either the debt is FALSE or the rent is FALSE.

    Lowering rents for lower profits is one thing but lowering rents to crystallize a loss against no profits is false.

    This is refusing to recognise either the real value of the debt or the real value of the rent.

    The vultures got red carpet treatment when they bought apartment blocks below build costs.

    • Truthist

      Fine 3 bedroom condominiums, in 20 storey blocks, could be built anew & sold for a modest profit at approx Euro 20,000 I argue ;
      Perhaps, even Euro 15,000.
      .
      Dweller either :
      1.
      buys outright
      or
      2.
      rents-to-buy
      .
      Cars are stored in automated multi-storey parking block adjacent to condo-block;
      Occupants of car dismount from car before automated system engages with care.
      Ditto for motorcycles.
      .
      Also, there is option for owning outright, or renting-to-buy, as nearby condo dweller storage & mini-workshop facility.
      .
      “Special” villages of such condo blocks & parking blocks & storage / workshop blocks.
      .
      Also should have aquaponics [ generic term for hydroponics, aquaponics itself, vermiponics, & vermiculture ] as in allotments.
      Same terms of ownership to rights as with above.
      Persistent bad behavior by dweller results in process of departure from particular special condo village.
      But, dweller retains there entitlement to immediately reside in other vacant condo of similar block in different “special” village of condo.s
      .
      .
      Come on, … let us get up & going with this great idea.
      And, in its success we finally rid by “MARKET — vis. pull from “this very game-changing enterprise / idea — “FORCES” the pernicious practise of LANDLORDISM [ on par with Usuary ] & its attendant “Social / Control Model” & “Revenue — vis. Rent-Seeking — Model” from the Irish State.
      .
      Bet that the Teacher-Landlords / Landlord-Teachers & Garda-Landlords / Landlord / Gardai will be hostile to that !
      .

    • Truthist

      What could the phrase mean Mike ;
      .
      “Setting a rent that is crystallizing a loss” ?

      • mike flannelly

        I was trying to highlight an example scenario where by as a solution for homelessness,the government forces people with 350,000 buy to let INVESTMENT mortgages to crysallize a loss by setting low rents to mortgage repayments ratios.

        Either the debt on these 2008 apts is too high and needed to be rehabilitated with industry best practice split mortgage restructures or the rents are too low.

        High debt to low rents is false.

        We all know that the debt on apts was too high. But how high?

        Rents v net incomes of different interest groups is a core metric that our economists are struggling to present.

        1995
        2000
        2005
        2010
        2016

        Give us real metrics.

        • Truthist

          Thanks Mike.
          .
          I now know for sure what u were on about all along.
          .
          I suggest that u re-phrase how u describe this particular situation so that other readers — & particularly new readers — understand easily & quickly.
          After all, we must remind ourselves that we have an educator role too in being bloggers.

          Incidentally, whilst I am proponent of many a conspiracy fact & u are only slowly coming around to believe some of them, I trust that u appreciate me as a poster here who does not stoop to insulting language or mocking or lies or harrassment etc.

          I have had to suffer a blue-shirty troll recently as u should have noticed.

          Thanks

          Mike

          • mike flannelly

            Truthist.

            I look on this blog and everyones opinions as a sort of economic quality circle. I myself try to ask basic core questions that seem to be conveniently ignored.Solutions are the main focus of a quality circle. But everyones input make it what it is. Sometimes the mad input can trigger a solution input.

            I dont believe that bias political solutions should paper over economic logic. That can and has multiplied economic problems.

            Mike

          • Truthist

            Again, Pat, I feel need to remind u how thankful I am for ur investigative work thus far on :
            1.
            Irish State’s Dept. of Health Medical System, vis.
            State Hospitals system
            More particularly, the current bulk of obstructionist blocks of personnel.
            It has to be said ;
            Loads of lazy & greedy & incompetent & contemptous & duplicating & irrelevant staff.
            Especially, administrators & clerical officers.
            Heck, in every speciality.

            2.
            some other sad performer blocks of Civil Service.
            3.
            aspects of Banking rackets
            e.g.s
            Derivatives
            &
            the even worse other instrument that at time of writing herein I forget the name of

            Of course, I will humbly suggest u write a series of slim books for sale to the public treating these racket comprehensively ;
            Each book dedicated to 1 racket only.

            Regards,

            Truthist

  30. [...] Finance Bill — We’re finally keeping it real – McWilliams (DavidMCWilliams) [...]

  31. Deco

    Interesting article concerning the Euro, the ECB and industrial output.

    Note the industrial output of FR, IT, PT, and Greece in 1990 compared to currently.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-26/adoption-euro-has-been-unequivocally-bad-southern-european-economies

    France is in statistically in a rather dangerous category. One wonders how the French economy is not yet in the same crisis as Italy. If anything tourism revenue should be as high in Italy, as it is in France.

    Is it the Common Agricultural policy, EU transfers, nuclear electric power, some form of internal efficiency, regional deflation, or financial services ? Maybe the impact of bailouts of Greece and Ireland which included bailouts of French insurance firms/banks, which prevented a sharp financial imapct ?

    Also German industrial production is increasing over the longer term.

    But there is an output problem in France. Output is not increasing at the same pace as GDP. In the others there is a coefficient match between industrial output and GNP. Both these two go in sync.

    David, you might find this useful in the context of the Euro, and the manner in which it is managed.

    • McCawber

      Casino analigy – France is a country that knows very well how to change the rules.
      Perhaps a lesson for everyone.
      Egalite my arse. Animal farm in action.

      • Deco

        McCawber – you are correct. There is a lot of hypocrisy involved.

        The behaviour of the French, and the Germans (since Merkel), combined has made the EU unworkable.

        This is at the heart of the mess.

        Merkel + Hollande = Mer de.

        And that is what the EU is in, currently. The EU is in the Mer-de.

  32. michaelcoughlan

    @RR6

    George Carlin being interviewed Barry in 2008 and his response to being asked “are we going to elect a satirical president basically the dumbest guy in America?” Ans; “We are getting there”;

    https://youtu.be/fGBiZiWmcbQ?t=182

  33. McCawber

    Keeping it real.
    Pedantically speaking we aren’t /weren’t real so enough said.
    Getting real well actually no.
    Real is 19 shillings and sixpence.
    We aren’t even close.
    Spending your fiscal space on consumption when you owe 200bn of national debt is not real.
    David you need to stop thinking like an economist.
    You need to start thinking like an economist who knows that tomorrow looks dodgy.
    Ergo stop digging holes of the wrong type of encouragement.
    You’re a positive guy I reckon we all would agree with that.
    So here’s is my message.
    The glass is half empty and the glass is half full.
    I’m fine with you taking the half full approach, taking the positive viewpoint.
    But when you do that, you must and I mean that as imperative, you must expose the risks and in particular how to avoid them in a positive way of course.

  34. Truthist

    Especially from the most recent videos of Trump’s speeches & ad lib interaction I conclude that Trump is genuine in his intentions to :
    .
    1.
    tackle the corruption of the USA establishment / The Dreadful Few
    incl.
    A]
    Federal Reserve Bank [ of Rothschilds ] ; Although, to be accurate, the Fed. is an “internal-international” establishment.
    B]
    commercial Banks ; Ref. “Wall Street’s ‘Goldman Sachs’ [ Hillary Clinton's sponsor ] & Citi-Bank inter alia
    C]
    Washington ; Senate, Congress, House of Representatives, Pentagon
    And, thus return much power to the individual States.
    .
    &
    .
    2.
    retract USA from being proxy war machine for The Dreadful Few
    .
    inter alia
    .
    Here is an excellent performance from Trump in the presence of Hillary Clinton at fund-raising dinner for Catholic Church’s charitable causes last week.
    Hillary Clinton also gives a speech.
    .
    .
    FULL: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Speech At The Alfred E Smith Memorial Dinner (10/20/2016)

    • McCawber

      I’d love to know what a body language expert would make of Trump and Hillary .
      I mean that seriously.
      Obviously American body language is slightly different to Irish people’s body language but a lot of this stuff is common to all cultures.
      Hillary is much scripted than Trump.
      But the issue is does she believe herself or is it just words.
      Trump’s mouth often says things his brain is telling him “maybe you should think about that before you say it or say it a bit differently”.
      He doesn’t seem too worried about it.
      I suspect he believes a lot more of what he says than Hillary does.
      To an outsider they seem very transparent.
      Are they as transparent to the US electorate one would wonder.

  35. Was Timothy McVeigh a patsy, stooge or government operative in the Oklahoma bombing of the Murrah building. Were Federal agents warned to stay away from work that day. Was McVeigh part of a team effort to destroy the building with multiple bomb placements. Were papers destroyed germane to the Whitewater investigation of the Criminal Clinton clique.
    Is timothy McVeigh still alive and his execution feigned.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vgfi1QZILxk

  36. The fact that we are wallowing at nearly an identical level to the pre-Brexit level is no coincidence. Based on Wikileaks’ overwhelming evidence of criminal collusion at the highest levels of government it is a certainty that gold control is also high on their agenda. The stakes are just too high, and the narrative of the economy being hunky-dory must not be disturbed. Based on this incredible derivatives control I see nothing disturbing this pattern until November 9th or after.

    It’s not just gold, it’s as if time itself has been suspended in the markets. All benchmarks notable to the public are on lockdown. 18,000 Dow, 2100 S&P, 164 Bond, $50 crude, 98 dollar, all are virtually burned into our monitors. It’s insane in light of the global gyrations, threats, and monetary upheavals going on. That’s just what derivatives are; imbedded insanity with a lit fuse. The markets aren’t just quiet, thanks to the highly-efficient derivatives markets they are creepy silent. The saying “the calm before the storm” has never been more appropriate. I suspect the storm will begin in November shortly after TPTB install their next POTUS.

    James Mc on http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

  37. What does Donald Trump stand for? From my perspective, for anything and everything!
    He stands for everyone that is sick and tired of the current system and the political elite
    who have grown out of touch with the ordinary American citizen. You will find them among
    the working class, small business owners, and that segment of society that used to be the
    middle class before the crisis, and they all have great grievances against the policies of the
    establishment. Those people understand that the phrase “the Union and the Constitution
    forever” has been under attack and downgraded to nothing more than an empty phrase by
    the power elite and the deep state. We see first hand how the Patriot Act directly violates
    not only the first amendment’s advocacy of free speech, but also the fourth and fifth
    amendments, thereby tearing apart the very foundation of a country once based on respect
    for civil liberties. There is no doubt that the second amendment will also be crushed under
    Clinton, “regulating to extinction” the natural right to self-defense and personal sovereignty.

    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2016/Misc/Global_Gold_Outlook_Report_Nr__16.pdf

    • One key reason behind the peoples’ hostility towards Clinton is that she personally
      embodies the hypocrisy and the hubris of the U.S. federal government itself: a government
      that maims and kills millions with its war on terror, it arms and supports murderous regimes
      and ideological fanatics and it is known to deploy chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
      And yet, it somehow pretends to hold the moral high ground, and lectures others on
      human rights.

    • E. Kavanagh

      Tony, as much as I’d like to see the 2nd Amendment completely expunged from the US Constitution; the notion that Clinton could regulate to extinction the right to self-defense is ridiculous (that right, of course, being different to the 2nd Amendment, although you seem to be mixing them up). While I think one long gun with a one shot capacity is all responsible adults should be allowed, unfortunately I don’t see much support for that position.

      Your notion that there is “no doubt that” the 2nd Amendment will “be crushed” is outlandish. And, if Clinton wins, let’s put our money where our mouth is and bet on who will be happier with the health of the 2nd Amendment.

      • Actually the above are quotes posted in lemetropolecafe.com

        I looked hard for a mention of the 2nd ammendment, where is it, but I did see the reference to legislating away the right to self defense. That in fact is seaping in to the law as people are now charged with intent or actual murder when they are defending their own homes.

        In particular I draw your attention to the massacre of women at Ecole Polytechnique.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89cole_Polytechnique_massacre

        gun ownership is generally restricted in Canada except for hunting rifles etc. If the men or some of them were armed none of them would have been rounded up like cattle and the separated women shot in cold blood at close range.

        From this I concluded it is better to have all armed rather than just the crazies and the government. The 2nd amendment is to allow the citizen to appose the tyrannic government and to take out the madmen. Switzerland does very well with every able bodied person armed to the teeth at home. It kept Germany with second thoughts.

        In the North Peace during the late 60′s when I was agricultural contracting all the farmers had multiple arms. I never heard of a single untoward incident in 2 years. The only victims were cattle, moose and bear etc. All good eating.

      • Ah, I had overlooked the quote on the 2nd amendment and I do not find it outlandish as do you. It Is a fact that there is a concerted effort to disarm the population and that is exactly what every tyrant does after the coup d’etat to consolidate control.
        I would rather disarm the government and arm every citizen.
        A disarmed population as in Britain has not prevented armed crime and robberies or police being shot.

        If the police were disarmed at the same time as the population I could live with that if the death penalty were reactivated for police and and official guards killings.

        Tonight Trump is reported to be 2% up on Clinton in the swing state of Florida

        Here is the US map showing Trump with a chance to win.

        https://donate.donaldjtrump.com/too-close-to-call?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=JFC_direct-ask_too-close-to-call&additionalutm_content=102616-djt-memo-inh-jfc-p-p-hf-e-1&utm_source=e_p-p&amount=100

  38. Truthist

    @ Tony & Grzegorz & Mr. McCawber & Deco,
    .
    If Trump is ur preferred candidate, & especially if u see merit in his manifesto towards the USA economy & domestic social & moral [ incl. insertion of Supreme Court judges who are pro-life, & not pro-sexual dysfunction ( lawful incest, & lawful bestiality coming otherwise ; Ref. Canada laws recently ]issues, & also his intentions to pull the USA completely out of foreign invasions [ Iraq, Afghanistan, & Hillary Clinton's intended direct attacks on Syria, Iran, & Russia inter alia ] & genocide & being overseer for sub-proxies [ ISIS ] on behalf of The Dreadful Few, well … particular guardians of the guards would call u ;
    .
    “clowns or racists or sexists”.
    .
    Ain’t that troll’s accusation real blackguardism ?

    • E. Kavanagh

      Disagreeing with you doesn’t make one a troll. It may make one wrong; but there is an obvious difference.

      I do think you are an idiot; and the proofs that you’ve show to support some of your insane notions support that fact.

      And this very posting shows what stupid nonsense you support: because gay marriage has been supported that those judges will support bestiality and incest!

      On abortion though, I do agree that people can sincerely disagree (and I disagree with you). And, whoever wins, it certainly will be a good time to move the US Supreme Court further in their direction.

      The only problem with electing Trump is that he, like you, is either completely insane on certain matters, or just a lying crook.

      BTW I do think John Oliver gives a decent treatment of Trump and Clinton.

      And while Clinton may turn one’s stomach; Trump is like an FFer on angel dust. He is a populist of the worst order.
      Is there a topic he hasn’t reversed himself: for abortion, against abortion; for the Iraq war, against it; Putin is great, Russia is dangerous. Everyone can agree with Trump because he’s said it all.

      Anyway the good thing, in this instance, is the potential for gridlock in the US system, and the tripartite division of government: his lunacy will be severely retarded if he is elected.

    • McCawber

      I’m pro America.
      That doesn’t and shouldn’t equate to my being pro Trump or pro Hillary.
      Somehow tho Hillary and the media seemed to have engineered a situation that a vote for Trump is anti America and vote for Hillary is pro America.
      That is not good for democracy.

      • E. Kavanagh

        I disagree; I think the media has engineered a position similar to the Brexit vote: where voting for Trump is pro-lunacy, so the only sane option is Clinton.

        Interesting to see how it works out.

  39. Truthist

    Ur behavior & insulting language makes u a troll.
    e.g.
    above post.
    .
    Also, u are betraying urself to be in unison with the current values of the Guards.
    Values that are promoted by our own George Soros type interloper — Irish-American — Mr. Chuck Feeney.
    Chuck Feeney & the Guards want abortion [ murder of the unborn child ] to be legalised & performed in Irish State.
    Chuck Feeney recently secured the Gardai as a block to interfere in the same-chromosome type marriage referendum of Irish State so as to rig it in favor of the organised homosexual lobby agenda.

    .
    Working class people on the whole are against these “crooked” values.
    .
    But, then u would just class us as :
    clowns
    racists
    sexists.
    .

  40. Truthist

    Owners of IMF & approving body for our Civil Service all these years of misery to be paid well in excess of the typical equivalents in Private Sector, & our underclasses to be forlorn by way of then balancing the books, here endorsing Irish Establishment’s preferred candidate for USA Prezzie job ;
    .
    https://twitter.com/LdeRothschild/status/789664601784852480/photo/1
    .
    No wonder Hillary Clinton is licking up to Lynn de Rothschild in those wikileakes’ emails.
    And, now, we have proof of mutual licking.
    .
    So there yee have it folks ;
    1st we get “Slick” Willy.
    And, now we get “Lick” Hillary.

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