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	<title>Comments on: Just like the &#8217;80s, only different</title>
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	<description>The website of economist, author and broadcaster, David McWilliams</description>
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		<title>By: Grzegorz Kolodziej</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154625</link>
		<dc:creator>Grzegorz Kolodziej</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jan 2015 09:58:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154625</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[First of all, in what way does the Irish House prices matter? Property in Ireland and the UK is the same what the stock market is in the US - it&#039;s based on fiat money and it has no relation to the real economy. In recent years the growth in house prices has been fueled by debt. Keyensians like Paul Krugman just do not get that. The only index that matters is how many people come in to the country and how many people leave (heaven forfend that I turn a blind eye to terrible human tragedies of African nations, but this does not include asylum seekers).

Now, to answer your question:

1. House prices grew partly due to demand from immigrants (and other factors such as those you have mentioned. I.e., 325,000 PPS number issued to Polish citizens - obviously it does not mean that all of them stayed here, but it is a certain indicator)
2. House prices have fallen again partly due to both Irish Citizens and non-nationals leaving (i.e., 122,585 Poles in Ireland in 2011)
3. Now house prices are growing again due to factors indicated by you plus limiting supply plus demolitions - remember what media were saying only 2 years ago?:

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/itll-take-us-43-years-to-fill-all-empty-houses-26863864.html

plus a strange feature of the Irish and British psyche which is a belief that house prices never go down - I heard that even from people who lived in the early 90s property-bubble burst London and I bet you we will soon start hearing it again).

If the government wanted the house prices to fall, the first thing they would do would be to abolish the Rent Allowance and incorporate it into a general social welfare system the UK-style, which would immediately bring huge savings from people who are not entitled to it.

David&#039;s diagnoses have always been spot-on, but his solutions have often been wrong.

He lives in fear of deflation while Dublin Bus ticket prices went up by 7% again, despite of the price of oil falling down by nearly 50%.

He is worried about manufacturing moving to China, but he is not worried about Quantitative Easing which depends on the mercy of China buying the US bonds; not only he is not worried, he urges the ECB to make us more dependent on China by printing more soon-to-be-worthless euronotes and eurobonds]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First of all, in what way does the Irish House prices matter? Property in Ireland and the UK is the same what the stock market is in the US &#8211; it&#8217;s based on fiat money and it has no relation to the real economy. In recent years the growth in house prices has been fueled by debt. Keyensians like Paul Krugman just do not get that. The only index that matters is how many people come in to the country and how many people leave (heaven forfend that I turn a blind eye to terrible human tragedies of African nations, but this does not include asylum seekers).</p>
<p>Now, to answer your question:</p>
<p>1. House prices grew partly due to demand from immigrants (and other factors such as those you have mentioned. I.e., 325,000 PPS number issued to Polish citizens &#8211; obviously it does not mean that all of them stayed here, but it is a certain indicator)<br />
2. House prices have fallen again partly due to both Irish Citizens and non-nationals leaving (i.e., 122,585 Poles in Ireland in 2011)<br />
3. Now house prices are growing again due to factors indicated by you plus limiting supply plus demolitions &#8211; remember what media were saying only 2 years ago?:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/itll-take-us-43-years-to-fill-all-empty-houses-26863864.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/itll-take-us-43-years-to-fill-all-empty-houses-26863864.html</a></p>
<p>plus a strange feature of the Irish and British psyche which is a belief that house prices never go down &#8211; I heard that even from people who lived in the early 90s property-bubble burst London and I bet you we will soon start hearing it again).</p>
<p>If the government wanted the house prices to fall, the first thing they would do would be to abolish the Rent Allowance and incorporate it into a general social welfare system the UK-style, which would immediately bring huge savings from people who are not entitled to it.</p>
<p>David&#8217;s diagnoses have always been spot-on, but his solutions have often been wrong.</p>
<p>He lives in fear of deflation while Dublin Bus ticket prices went up by 7% again, despite of the price of oil falling down by nearly 50%.</p>
<p>He is worried about manufacturing moving to China, but he is not worried about Quantitative Easing which depends on the mercy of China buying the US bonds; not only he is not worried, he urges the ECB to make us more dependent on China by printing more soon-to-be-worthless euronotes and eurobonds</p>
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		<title>By: Fat Tony</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154616</link>
		<dc:creator>Fat Tony</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2015 23:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154616</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So what does this mean for Irish House prices (the only assets that matter), in the context of market interference from Central bank rules and from rent control meddling???]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So what does this mean for Irish House prices (the only assets that matter), in the context of market interference from Central bank rules and from rent control meddling???</p>
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		<title>By: DB4545</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154585</link>
		<dc:creator>DB4545</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2015 13:15:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Smokey that&#039;s the thing about a democracy there is no last word. I&#039;m happy for you to make any comments you want all I ask is that you do a bit of research and think before you comment. You commented that you want to round up the usual suspects for pre-boarding searches and you call me racist? If EL AL profiled its passengers in the manner you suggested it would have planes falling out of the sky every day. The fact that it doesn&#039;t is a testament to the Israelis using intelligence always and muscle when necessary. Far from being a &quot;leftist&quot; or PC I&#039;m a libertarian who is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I believe in first amendment rights and the secondment amendment rights which secure them in the US Constitution and I hope Europe enshrines those values into it&#039;s political and legal system before it&#039;s too late. I wish you well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Smokey that&#8217;s the thing about a democracy there is no last word. I&#8217;m happy for you to make any comments you want all I ask is that you do a bit of research and think before you comment. You commented that you want to round up the usual suspects for pre-boarding searches and you call me racist? If EL AL profiled its passengers in the manner you suggested it would have planes falling out of the sky every day. The fact that it doesn&#8217;t is a testament to the Israelis using intelligence always and muscle when necessary. Far from being a &#8220;leftist&#8221; or PC I&#8217;m a libertarian who is fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I believe in first amendment rights and the secondment amendment rights which secure them in the US Constitution and I hope Europe enshrines those values into it&#8217;s political and legal system before it&#8217;s too late. I wish you well.</p>
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		<title>By: Grzegorz Kolodziej</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154583</link>
		<dc:creator>Grzegorz Kolodziej</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2015 12:22:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154583</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A courageous and honest article. 

&quot;When the local white population try to argue that they are getting squeezed by immigrants or their kids can’t get work because the immigrants are getting the jobs because immigrants are prepared to work longer hours, they are slapped down and labelled racist.&quot;

Though the article would be much more courageous if it admitted that it&#039;s like the local white population of Australia getting squeezed by Irish immigrants ;-)

However, as much as I agree with lots of what David says, I think he misses the point somewhat, a point made by one of the commentators called Deco:

&quot;Irish immigration policies are all about propping up a real estate Ponzi scheme.

Same as everywhere else.

The most important thing in society is Ponzi-economics.&quot;

The reason David misses the point is that he believes in inflation (and even though he exposed in his articles in the past various Ponzi-schemes in the Irish property market, he still believes in the biggest Ponzi-scheme of them all which is money printing) and quotes economists who earned much deserved opprobrium such as Josepf Stiglitz and Paul Krugman, who were wrong on nearly everything they wrote. 

For example, in 2002 Stiglitz suggested that the probability of a shock as severe as that anticipated in the new risk-based capital standards for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was less than one in five hundred thousand and possibly less than one in three million and that, given the extremely small probability of a default by these institutions the expected monetary costs from exposure to their insolvency would be ‘relatively small’. 

Turning to China, Stiglitz claims – on the basis of just a few hours spent interviewing some local officials – that stunning economic growth since 1979 is due to the existence of Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs) which are publicly owned but which simulate market competition owing to their being controlled by lower tiers of government, which is completely at odds with reality: of the 12 million recorded TVEs it turns out that 10.5 million are in fact privately owned or in a position of de facto private ownership  – many of them having arisen following the process of rural privatisation that ran from 1979-1989.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A courageous and honest article. </p>
<p>&#8220;When the local white population try to argue that they are getting squeezed by immigrants or their kids can’t get work because the immigrants are getting the jobs because immigrants are prepared to work longer hours, they are slapped down and labelled racist.&#8221;</p>
<p>Though the article would be much more courageous if it admitted that it&#8217;s like the local white population of Australia getting squeezed by Irish immigrants ;-)</p>
<p>However, as much as I agree with lots of what David says, I think he misses the point somewhat, a point made by one of the commentators called Deco:</p>
<p>&#8220;Irish immigration policies are all about propping up a real estate Ponzi scheme.</p>
<p>Same as everywhere else.</p>
<p>The most important thing in society is Ponzi-economics.&#8221;</p>
<p>The reason David misses the point is that he believes in inflation (and even though he exposed in his articles in the past various Ponzi-schemes in the Irish property market, he still believes in the biggest Ponzi-scheme of them all which is money printing) and quotes economists who earned much deserved opprobrium such as Josepf Stiglitz and Paul Krugman, who were wrong on nearly everything they wrote. </p>
<p>For example, in 2002 Stiglitz suggested that the probability of a shock as severe as that anticipated in the new risk-based capital standards for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was less than one in five hundred thousand and possibly less than one in three million and that, given the extremely small probability of a default by these institutions the expected monetary costs from exposure to their insolvency would be ‘relatively small’. </p>
<p>Turning to China, Stiglitz claims – on the basis of just a few hours spent interviewing some local officials – that stunning economic growth since 1979 is due to the existence of Township and Village Enterprises (TVEs) which are publicly owned but which simulate market competition owing to their being controlled by lower tiers of government, which is completely at odds with reality: of the 12 million recorded TVEs it turns out that 10.5 million are in fact privately owned or in a position of de facto private ownership  – many of them having arisen following the process of rural privatisation that ran from 1979-1989.</p>
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		<title>By: SMOKEY</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154566</link>
		<dc:creator>SMOKEY</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jan 2015 09:33:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154566</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You, DB4545, are a Quisling and a moron. I will allow you to have the last word as you are a politically correct useful idiot for the new Hitler&#039;s in filthy headscarves who would love to cut your throat on a video and show the world. Good luck with that, I will however fight to keep this human offal out of the communities of law abiding citizens who want to have a family, that means mom and dad, not dad and dad or mom and mom, but a traditional way of life where one builds a family in a safe community and some level of respectability to pass on to future generations. Not one of your arguments is worth responding to, so, you have lost this argument and you can lick your wounds privately. I will not waste my time responding to anymore of your infantile leftist and racist propaganda. Ever. Slan.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You, DB4545, are a Quisling and a moron. I will allow you to have the last word as you are a politically correct useful idiot for the new Hitler&#8217;s in filthy headscarves who would love to cut your throat on a video and show the world. Good luck with that, I will however fight to keep this human offal out of the communities of law abiding citizens who want to have a family, that means mom and dad, not dad and dad or mom and mom, but a traditional way of life where one builds a family in a safe community and some level of respectability to pass on to future generations. Not one of your arguments is worth responding to, so, you have lost this argument and you can lick your wounds privately. I will not waste my time responding to anymore of your infantile leftist and racist propaganda. Ever. Slan.</p>
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		<title>By: DB4545</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154562</link>
		<dc:creator>DB4545</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 21:46:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154562</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jesus H Christ Smokey will you please start using your brain. They shot a MUSLIM policeman as well. Did you know that a Turkish newspaper published the pictures from Charlie Hebdo today? We can pontificate all we like on this forum but do you realise the balls it takes to do that in a MUSLIM Country? A Catholic Archbishop was beheaded and three Christian missionaries were tortured and murdered in Turkey less than eight years ago. Ray Kelly the former NYPD Commissioner has said that racial profiling does not work.
I don&#039;t know if you&#039;re taking the p**s but can you not see the danger that you would place people in? Your idea doesn&#039;t work and is counter-productive it&#039;s been tested and has failed. The 9/11 terrorists behaved like Westerners and were even drinking in local bars. They&#039;ve already used a 10 year old child for a suicide bomb. These people think well outside the box so we have to as well. Conventional prejudice doesn&#039;t work with these people.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jesus H Christ Smokey will you please start using your brain. They shot a MUSLIM policeman as well. Did you know that a Turkish newspaper published the pictures from Charlie Hebdo today? We can pontificate all we like on this forum but do you realise the balls it takes to do that in a MUSLIM Country? A Catholic Archbishop was beheaded and three Christian missionaries were tortured and murdered in Turkey less than eight years ago. Ray Kelly the former NYPD Commissioner has said that racial profiling does not work.<br />
I don&#8217;t know if you&#8217;re taking the p**s but can you not see the danger that you would place people in? Your idea doesn&#8217;t work and is counter-productive it&#8217;s been tested and has failed. The 9/11 terrorists behaved like Westerners and were even drinking in local bars. They&#8217;ve already used a 10 year old child for a suicide bomb. These people think well outside the box so we have to as well. Conventional prejudice doesn&#8217;t work with these people.</p>
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		<title>By: SMOKEY</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154560</link>
		<dc:creator>SMOKEY</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 19:41:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154560</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[+1 Colin! Exactly. DB4545 is the kind of guy who would advocate everyone getting searched as they get on a plane. I say a 75 yr old Swiss woman, or a child in a wheelchair, or some Irish Nuns don&#039;t fit the &quot;profile&quot; of bearded 20 something Arab males that I would prefer be searched. And once again the so called moderate Iman&#039;s have a chance to rally Muslims and march en masse saying &quot;not in our name&quot; but, you wont see this happen. And you will be told by the mainstream media that this is not an Islamic problem it is a terrorist issue. They just all happen to be Muslim. Fact is we have to look at these people closely. Understand they don&#039;t think like us and realize they have completely a different world view. And who on this blog feels in any way comfortable around someone in a burka?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>+1 Colin! Exactly. DB4545 is the kind of guy who would advocate everyone getting searched as they get on a plane. I say a 75 yr old Swiss woman, or a child in a wheelchair, or some Irish Nuns don&#8217;t fit the &#8220;profile&#8221; of bearded 20 something Arab males that I would prefer be searched. And once again the so called moderate Iman&#8217;s have a chance to rally Muslims and march en masse saying &#8220;not in our name&#8221; but, you wont see this happen. And you will be told by the mainstream media that this is not an Islamic problem it is a terrorist issue. They just all happen to be Muslim. Fact is we have to look at these people closely. Understand they don&#8217;t think like us and realize they have completely a different world view. And who on this blog feels in any way comfortable around someone in a burka?</p>
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		<title>By: DB4545</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154559</link>
		<dc:creator>DB4545</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 19:33:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154559</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi Colin,
If you read my comments in David&#039;s previous article I&#039;ve suggested legal methods which would help to curtail most illegal immigration from problem cultures. The last time Europe faced a major threat a former colony (the USA) and Russia came to our rescue. Mr. Putin(he has his faults) has said that if Europe doesn&#039;t act it&#039;s in danger of becoming a colony of its former colonies. He may be right. The West (the USA, Europe, the Russian Federation, Australasia, Latin America and Canada) needs to get its sh** together and fast.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Colin,<br />
If you read my comments in David&#8217;s previous article I&#8217;ve suggested legal methods which would help to curtail most illegal immigration from problem cultures. The last time Europe faced a major threat a former colony (the USA) and Russia came to our rescue. Mr. Putin(he has his faults) has said that if Europe doesn&#8217;t act it&#8217;s in danger of becoming a colony of its former colonies. He may be right. The West (the USA, Europe, the Russian Federation, Australasia, Latin America and Canada) needs to get its sh** together and fast.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154557</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 17:46:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154557</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#039;My problem is when they force the rest of us to join in their madness. Then it has to stop.&#039;

The only way to stop it coming to a street near you is to stop muslim immigration. 

Bring the poor Hindus from India, the poor Buddhists from Burma, the poor Christians from South America, the poor Pagans and Christians from Sub Saharan Africa, the poor Confucians from China into the country if labour is really really needed. I mean, how many have been killed in Europe by immigrant Buddhists unhappy with the media portrayal of Buddha?

But someone got the great idea in the 1950s and 1960s of not bringing the above in in large numbers, they thought, hmmmmm... maybe we&#039;ll bring in the people who tried to conquer Europe in three attempts over the last 1400 years, you know, the Arabs, the Moors and the Turks, yes, great idea, it doesn&#039;t matter that they take their imperialistic creed very seriously and believe they are supreme and better than Christians and Jews and can invoke their &#039;God&#039; and quote their &#039;holy book&#039; which states there are 3 options, convert to islam; pay tax and live as a second class citizen in your conquered land; death.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8216;My problem is when they force the rest of us to join in their madness. Then it has to stop.&#8217;</p>
<p>The only way to stop it coming to a street near you is to stop muslim immigration. </p>
<p>Bring the poor Hindus from India, the poor Buddhists from Burma, the poor Christians from South America, the poor Pagans and Christians from Sub Saharan Africa, the poor Confucians from China into the country if labour is really really needed. I mean, how many have been killed in Europe by immigrant Buddhists unhappy with the media portrayal of Buddha?</p>
<p>But someone got the great idea in the 1950s and 1960s of not bringing the above in in large numbers, they thought, hmmmmm&#8230; maybe we&#8217;ll bring in the people who tried to conquer Europe in three attempts over the last 1400 years, you know, the Arabs, the Moors and the Turks, yes, great idea, it doesn&#8217;t matter that they take their imperialistic creed very seriously and believe they are supreme and better than Christians and Jews and can invoke their &#8216;God&#8217; and quote their &#8216;holy book&#8217; which states there are 3 options, convert to islam; pay tax and live as a second class citizen in your conquered land; death.</p>
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		<title>By: DB4545</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/01/12/just-like-the-80s-only-different/comment-page-1#comment-154556</link>
		<dc:creator>DB4545</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2015 12:33:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=7760#comment-154556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Smokey here&#039;s the deal. You may remember the bit of trouble we had in the North East part of the Island some years back. Our neighbours didn&#039;t really understand the situation. The place was a backwater to them and they were busy dismantling an Empire. When people started shooting at them it turned out that many of them had Irish accents. They made a fundamental attribution error and concluded that all people with Irish accents must be responsible for these shootings. The estimates suggest that most Catholic homes in the North were raided at least twice. We had the whole internment business. Then it just spiralled out of control.We had the crazy security screening of all Irish people. The resentment it created turned it into a recruitment campaign for the paramilitaries. It cost Irish and British Citizens thousands of lives, insane amounts of money and lost opportunity for a generation.

We don&#039;t need to repeat those mistakes or squander our resources fighting this menace. We need to engage in asymmetrical warfare and target selectively just like these maniacs have. Targeting innocent people is counter-productive and a complete waste of resources. Smokey I have no problem with crazy people who want to blow themselves up with suicide vests. I&#039;m happy for them if they want to go to paradise a bit early. If they want to use an AK47 to blow their own heads off I won&#039;t stand in their way. My problem is when they force the rest of us to join in their madness. Then it has to stop.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Smokey here&#8217;s the deal. You may remember the bit of trouble we had in the North East part of the Island some years back. Our neighbours didn&#8217;t really understand the situation. The place was a backwater to them and they were busy dismantling an Empire. When people started shooting at them it turned out that many of them had Irish accents. They made a fundamental attribution error and concluded that all people with Irish accents must be responsible for these shootings. The estimates suggest that most Catholic homes in the North were raided at least twice. We had the whole internment business. Then it just spiralled out of control.We had the crazy security screening of all Irish people. The resentment it created turned it into a recruitment campaign for the paramilitaries. It cost Irish and British Citizens thousands of lives, insane amounts of money and lost opportunity for a generation.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t need to repeat those mistakes or squander our resources fighting this menace. We need to engage in asymmetrical warfare and target selectively just like these maniacs have. Targeting innocent people is counter-productive and a complete waste of resources. Smokey I have no problem with crazy people who want to blow themselves up with suicide vests. I&#8217;m happy for them if they want to go to paradise a bit early. If they want to use an AK47 to blow their own heads off I won&#8217;t stand in their way. My problem is when they force the rest of us to join in their madness. Then it has to stop.</p>
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