October 2, 2014

Four steps could halt surge in house prices - but don't bank on anyone taking them

Posted in Irish Independent · 48 comments ·
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What will stop house prices rising at double-digit rates from here?

First, the banks might not partake in extending credit. Without credit, the recent house price surge can only be sustained by a massive switch from money on deposit to money in housing – as this is a finite amount, eventually the momentum would taper off.

A second way would be a dramatic rise in interest rates, which by driving up the cost of borrowing might cause people to think twice about the monthly cost of going into massive debt.

A third aspect may be a rapid increase in housing supply, which may flood the market in precisely the places where people want to live, puncturing the buyers’ panic and coaxing more sellers to sell before this new supply swamps the market.

The fourth might be the State deciding that accommodation is a utility like electricity, some of which should be provided at a reasonable price by a large company that isn’t always looking to maximise profits.

How likely, in the near term, is any of the above?

The first is highly unlikely because banks lend. Banks make profit by taking money in at a certain rate and lending money out at a higher rate. Unless you think that the banks will decline the opportunity to profit, it’s hardly likely that the banks will do anything but lend now. Lending leads to over lending and we may be back to banks driving housing markets that in turn drive lending.

The reason one feeds on the other is that once house prices start rising, the balance sheet of the bank itself plays tricks on the bank. The bank feels that the collateral against which it is lending is going up, so it feels able to lend more against it. But this just means that each time house prices increase, the very increase makes legitimate a bigger loan and we are on our way to a house price/credit spiral.

Because the State wants to get rid of the banks it owns, it wants them to be profitable in order to sell them. So the quickest way to profitability is more loans. This means that the State has a short-term strategic interest in more lending for housing.

So it is hardly likely that reason one above will change dramatically.

The second issue: are interest rates going up any time soon to dissuade people from taking on more debt?

The categorical answer is no. The eurozone economy is heading for deflation and the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has stated that he will keep rates low for as long as necessary. This could last years. We have seen in the US that rates can head downwards for three or four years and the US’s problems are nothing like Europe’s. The better model is Japan after the 1990s crash. Interest rates remained very low for a generation. This is an enormous opportunity to refinance Ireland’s productive sector but if we channel all this cheap money once again into property, we will only have ourselves to blame.

Unfortunately, with bank lending for mortgages rising rapidly, it doesn’t look like this cheap money is going anywhere else.

Interest rates will remain low and this will continue to lull people into a false sense of how much their huge loan actually costs. Remember, mortgages are 20-30 year commitments and some time in the maybe distant future, rates will rise and people will be walloped.

What about the third reason? Will there be a huge, rapid surge in supply, flooding the market and pushing down prices? Maybe, but where will this come from? Does NAMA have a significant portfolio of turnkey properties waiting to be sold? Or are there builders and developers building houses today that will come on stream next year? In fact, although construction is up, the number of housing permits is still way below demand.

As for what is decomposing in the entrails of NAMA and whether there are estates there ready to be sold and which need nothing more than a civil servant’s signature to boost supply, well, your guess is a good as mine. If there were, wouldn’t you think that the Government would have leaned on NAMA to make these available to prevent the buyers’ panic that is out there?

The one thing we know about housing supply is that it is slow to adapt but once it gets going, it is hard for builders to stop building. The reason is because of the same inflationary dynamic that is implicit in the housing market. Developers buy land in order to build, so the land is only worthwhile as long as they are building. The one thing they need to avoid is being Paddy last, that is the last builder, because that’s how they get caught when the market turns. As a result, once they start there is a group dynamic, which leads to all of them building as much as they can at the same time.

If supply adapts, it will do so well after prices have risen because prices rise much faster and instantaneously. This is what causes people to panic.

Now let’s look at our fourth reason to be optimistic about a tapering off of house prices. This reason involves a change of heart in the Government and a move to see accommodation as a utility, which is provided, in some cases, by a company, which aims to provide accommodation like electricity. This would cap the increases in the price of accommodation at the rate of inflation. Could this happen?

It could, but will it?

It is difficult to see the Government giving up the electoral aphrodisiac of higher house prices Because so much personal wealth is tied up in housing, rising house prices give people in negative equity hope for the future and give those on the right side of the property market the sense that they are wealthier this year than last year.

Coming into the acute phase of an electoral cycle, the feelgood buzz is too much for an incumbent Government to turn down.

None of the four main reasons that the property market might slow down look likely to come to pass. We will get a phase where buyers react to rising prices with more, not less, demand because they are afraid of being left behind. In addition, existing homeowners may say to themselves, ‘if there’s another 20pc in this, why not sell later?’

The State could nip this in the bud by instructing the banks to lend not against the last price but the average of prices for the last five years. By using this average, you break the link between the last price increase and new credit. This would stall price rises and allow supply to catch up but would mean that bank profits become disentangled from housing.

But don’t bank on such a simple solution!


    • GF

      “Does NAMA have turn-key estates ready for a signature to reduce the pent up demand?

      I bet in a few decades the proof will become clear, likely through excellent journalism that NAMA was implicitly instructed to make residential property prices skyrocket by any means necessary and by as much as possible.

      The only way those banks can pass the stress tests this month is if house prices increased considerably. Somehow NAMA has pulled this off just in time for next month’s stress tests that will show the three banks BoI, AIB and PTSB to be fine, due to the value of the assets behind the mortgages/arrears.

      It is my opinion that not only is NAMA holding back property, it is making sure additional units are not being built, and it could even be interfering with the bidding wars on individual properties. I would not be surprised to learn that in some instances their extra bids have led to them having to actually buy properties around Dublin. If only the Freedom of Information Act would allow us to look at NAMA’s books, but from some reason NAMA is exempt from the Freedom of Information… why? The proof of what they have been doing is there.

      My prediction is that as soon as the banks pass these stress tests NAMA will become a very different animal. I am not saying another property collapse; just all the gains made in the last 18 months will be reversed, in about six months after the banks pass the stress tests.

      NAMA will off-load everything (except the Docks) and allow buildings off their leads, laisse fair will return to the property market. NAMA will become skyscraper builders, building hopefully a real modern city centre focused on living where you work, in beautiful gloss glass sky scrapers designed with complete sound proofing, fire escapes, and storage rooms, utility rooms, airing rooms… actual apartments where families can actually live in – below them ultra-modern offices, and below them wonderful shops, restaurants, cafes and theatres. Water features, art sculptures, world envied architecture, marina’s, sanctuaries…

      Ah the utopia that NAMA will bring… if only they could stop illegally interfering with the current property market…

      • McGoo

        Not illegally. NAMA are explicitly tasked with selling the properties they hold for the highest price possible. Withholding supply to boost prices makes perfect sense. They would be incompetent if they didn’t do it. The morality or long-term economic sense of it is a different question.

        • GF

          It is illegal if they are acting outside their remit, such as purchasing property to inflate prices, or actively stopping developers developing by paying them off. Anything that is not in the best interest of the Irish Public is illegal. It might not be illegal in current law, but could be proven to be treason against your own nation if you push Irish families onto the streets just for your own personal bonus or getting a better price for your bank.

          I still believe that NAMA getting involved in purchasing property is illegal. And if they are paying off developers not to develop this would be illegal also.

          But doing any of this, at the expense of even ONE Irish citizen is corrupt, reprehensible and I believe it to be treason against the country.

      • The reality is that less than 20% of NAMA is residential with apparently only 14,000 homes so it is more the fact of NAMA holding on to undeveloped land with planning permission that could help the supply issue. So it appears that the owners of the 180,000 or so vacant homes in this country will probably have more affect on the market in the short term than NAMA will. Hopefully this talk of the central bank banning 92% mortgages will finally encourage the owners of vacant property to release them to the market as the market is continuing on at the moment as if they don’t exist. Hopefully NAMA will reach the 60% completion mark before next summer making its eradication looking closer to achieving.

        • GF

          The 20% statistic is really interesting. I am not saying for one second that you are incorrect, just that I keep hearing wildly different figures from different sources, but never does NAMA confirm what it holds. I fear most figures we hear are guess work or NAMA spin.

          I also agree with you in regards to the 180,000 vacant homes. But fear if these are not being rented out it is unlikely the owners need funds and thus need to sell them.

          A limit of salary multiplication and loan to value size (when getting mortgage approval) would seriously hamper crazy price increases but would it also be a form of tax on the poor who cannot get “Deposit Gifts” from the parents? Basically the massive deposit required allows the rich to remain land owners and the poor to be pushed into rent forever?

          I think the most sensible solution is salary multiplication. In some countries you can get your mortgage of 100% by buying a deposit insurance product (so there is a way around this) but if you limit all mortgages to a low multiple of salary then you really do restrict crazy house prize binges in the future.

          • Hi GF,
            Thanks for your reply. Yes less than 20% is hard to believe. For my previous post, I was trying to find the link to quote NAMA but could only now eventually find the info hidden away at the end of this page showing in fact it’s a shockingly low 13%! http://www.nama.ie/about-our-work/key-figures/
            I presume the 13% is a proportion of the value of loans and not 13% of the number of loans.
            The PRTB database from last July has an increase of only 15% (so should be 72,000 more in total) tenancies since the census so the 180k estimate would/should take that into account. What’s shocking is that only around half of the tenancies at census time were registered with the PRTB so we’re only left to assume that total tenancies have increased by 15% to around 550,000. We could argue there might be close to 600,000 as more new landlords could be more likely to avoid registering to save money. But still with net emigration and very little housing activity, there can only be so much of a reduction of the 230,000 vacant homes from census time.
            Yes it must be desperate for hard working but lower income couples to get their foot in the property ladder and we can’t go wrong, to a certain extent, with having better mortgage insurance packages like in other countries such as Canada. I believe such a system would make an insurance industry closely monitor banking standards and have more of an influence as they would be paying for any default and not the mortgage holders.

  1. None of the above will happen David, you are right.

    It will all be done arseways as usual.

    • Adelaide

      Having accompanied a friend to Threshold recently I can think of a fifth possibility.

      “Renters’ Revolt”

      The tenancy-rights consultant was remarking on a shift in renters’ psyche, plus their increased knowledge of their rights, or rather their LACK of rights, and considering their dire alternatives after eviction more and more tenants are simply refusing to vacate when given notice by their landlord, knowing full well the landlord will have to go through an expensive and snail-pace two year legal process to legally evict them by a bailiff. Only a bailiff can lawfully evict a tenant. Tenants are also aware that a hefty fine and possible conviction for the landlord should he change the locks or other aggressions, while utility services can not be lawfully disconnected by the landlord while the utility bills are being paid.
      A growing tactic is for tenants, unhappy at being evicted, to threaten to refuse to budge AND to refuse to pay any more rent, thereby forcing the landlord to take the above legal proceeding, UNLESS the landlord pays them off with a lump sum. Faced with this prospect and the unspoken threat of the unhappy tenants damaging the property most landlords cut their losses and pay up, of course the landlord may risk the law and take the ‘heavy’ approach but he is opening himself up to prosecution, especially as tenants are now savvy enough to video record everything.
      The chap remarked that far from being ‘tough cookies’ most of the tenants taking this radical route are simply driven by desperation, the prospect of homelessness or dislocation is a dark cloud on the horizon, they are digging in, they have nothing to lose by becoming bad tenants.

      • Colin

        That is great news. Thanks for sharing that Adelaide. People ought to realise that a little gumption goes a long way.

      • Adelaide

        If this behaviour became widespread then it would cause an exodus of landlords who’d rather sell up their property than face the prospect of future loss-making nightmares, increasing the house supply and reducing house prices.

        By the way, the chap remarked that most of their tenant clients are not signing the Irish Water form knowing full well Water Charges default to their landlord.

  2. McGoo

    >lend not against the last price but the average of prices for the last five years.

    David, you always suggest this lending criteria, instead of the much simpler maximum multiple of the borrowers income. Can you explain your preference?

  3. McGoo

    There is one more thing that could halt or reverse the surge in Dublin house prices – a house price crash in London!

    Prices in London seem to have peaked after a crazy runup. If they do crash, it will kill buyer confidence all over these islands, including Dublin. It might not happen, but right now it seems more likely than any of the 4 things suggested in this article.

    • CorkRob

      There is yet another step that government could take – a very effective one tp lessen or negate the impact of cash investors – place a punitive 50% Stamp Duty on all non-owner/occupier purchases.
      Offer a 2.5% clawback per annum over 20 years in the form of tax relief if the house is rented out as social housing.

      That should knock the inflationary pressure of cash speculators out of the market and free -up some properties for families and first-time buyers at more reasonable and affordable prices.
      However, this and previous governments don’t seem to have this as a priority, favouring the cheap elixir of huge house price increases to deliver a false sense of liquidity and Stamp Duty receipts , no matter how unsustainable !!!

      • E. Kavanagh

        That’s a terrible idea–you want to increase the cost of supplying houses to renters. How exactly does that help increase the supply of rentable property and bring down rents?

  4. Deco

    5. Dublin being built upwards like a city rather than outwards like an endless village.

    Dublin has a footprint the size of Berlin, but Berlin has three times the population, and Berlin does not have an endless house price mania. And Berlin even manages bigger parks.

    Construction in other West European cities is based on a higher residential housing density, and a higher skyline.

    There has been some improvement in this area in the last decade of the building boom.

    If Dublin were to build upward, there would be less of a need to move in places like Gorey, or Carlow. { and less long distance commuting }. It would have considerable social benefits, as the middle age group which looks after parents and children will be better able to cope with demands like work, care, schooling etc… It would actually improve quality of life.

    6. More decentralization of the state system out of Dublin to locations like Athlone, Naas, or Portlaoise. One example is the Children’s hospital project which is to be built vet, and where there is concern about the site space, and the parking requirement. Why not build it in Naas ? Naas is more accessible for most of the population (including large proportions of the population of Dublin) than any downtown area in Dublin anyway.

    David is correct. There is zero effort in respect of resolving any of this. Because the problem has already been officially defined as the need to bail out insolvent banks which have been “marooned” by the developers whom they made rich with their easy lending spree.

    YEs, folks the builders/developers have larges sums of money in the Caymans that that they will not bring home. These large amounts of money have been there since Anglo experienced a deposit run.

    Put it this way – when Anglo lost deposits – where did the money go ? Did any of the other banks exhibit signs of a corresponding deposit surge ?

    And more to the point, how come none of the media (which is heavily dependent on bank advertising) ignored the real story ?

    • Colin

      Deco,

      You are absolutely correct again.

      Last weekend I was in a proper city with proper parks, planned in a proper way – Paris.

      Dublin has only 1 central park – St Stephen’s Green (phoenix park is not Central Dublin). The Parisiens are happy to go without a garden if they have well maintained parks nearby. As I walked through the Jardin du Luxembourg, listening to the brass band playing for free and watching everyone enjoy the facilities it dawned on me that the difference between the Irish and the French is that the French people like each other and that Irish people don’t.

      I remember about 10 years ago, listening to an Expat home for ‘the’ Christmas from Amsterdam, telling me that when he spoke to so called Progressive Democrat Limerick TD Tim O’Malley about the lack of parks and playgrounds in limerick city in comparison to continental cities, he recalled that Tim dismissed that out of hand, and said he prefered to fund clubs (Rugby, Golf, Rowing, GAA etc…) to improve facilities.

      Regarding high rise, is does make a lot of sense to build that way and have services and facilities nearby for residents of tower blocks in the central districts of cities. the blueprint for good planning is therefore it will not be done.

      Ildefons Cerda set it out a long time ago…..

      Cerdà focused on key needs: chiefly, the need for sunlight, natural lighting and ventilation in homes (he was heavily influenced by the sanitarian movement), the need for greenery in people’s surroundings, the need for effective waste disposal including good sewerage, and the need for seamless movement of people, goods, energy, and information.

      His designs belie a network-oriented approach far ahead of his time. His street layout and grid plan were optimized to accommodate pedestrians, carriages, horse-drawn trams, urban railway lines (as yet unheard-of), gas supply and large-capacity sewers to prevent frequent floods, without neglecting public and private gardens and other key amenities. The latest technical innovations were incorporated in his designs if they could further the cause of better integration, but he also came up with remarkable new concepts of his own, including a logical system of land readjustment that was essential to the success of his project, and produced a thorough statistical analysis of working-class conditions at the time, which he undertook in order to demonstrate the ills of congestion.

      • Adelaide

        Deco. The Irish don’t like each other. That has been my conclusion and it explains so much of what is wrong with this country. The Irish despise each other.

          • In USA if someone sees a friend driving a beautiful car they say they must get one of those . In Ireland if the same happened they say I must get Him.

        • Mike Lucey

          The Irish Begrudgery Gene is strong and well.

          I’ve often noticed in West of Ireland small towns where everyone knows everyone else business people from outside the town do very well for themselves whereas locals setting up similar business often struggle.

          Maybe its a case of the prophet not being accepted in his own community. We (Irish) need to get over this silly attitude and curtail the Begrudgery Gene.

          Personally if I am not able to achieve comfort of some kind I sincerely wish that all my family and friends would be able to do so. It simply makes sense as I am sure I in turn benefit from their comfort.

        • Deco

          You are correct. Adelaide.

          For some strange reason, there is a lot of contempt/arrogance/selfishness in modern contemporary Irish society.

          In fact it seems to be very fashionable, and trendy. It has been relentlessly endorsed by a media and commercial establishment, that endorses it to primacy over all competing value systems.

          I think that a lot of the truth is shown in “the Century of the Self”.

          I also suspect that it is the Irish version of the “British class value system”.

          there is an obsession with property in England, and endemic snobbery also.

      • Deco

        Tim O’Malley – a hereditary politician. Fiona O’Malley was another hereditary politician.

        For some strange reason, Pravda always let well connected and utterly useless these morons into the public discussion.

        Of course, O’Malley was promoting “bread and circuses”. It is the ultimate sacred cow nowadays. “put on the green jersey”. Join the herd. The glory of taking a beating, and getting drunk on the product of an aristocracy-owned foreign domiciled mnc.

  5. Space Walk

    Without saying it David is talking about MARKETS and might be understood to believe that we on this Isle have no Mario Draghi to corrupt the flow of the currency gravity .

    We need a Galileo who can show where the gravity in space falls .Its teasing and moves fast and awareness does pay off .

  6. Sharp English

    English has fixed edges almost everywhere and in our mindset its dept is restricted to 2 Dimensions thus why Austerity is the final frontier in deciding a government economic policy .

    French has 3 and 4 Dimensions and has a richness that no English dog has gone before thus reason why in France their government rule out Austerity and corners are rounded in different ways .

    • Mike Lucey

      Could it be that government in France keep in mind that the populous are quite adapt at using the guillotine!

      • Code Napoleon ( Enarchy – Ecole National ) arrived after the age of the guillotine and forms the seed of the mindset of Cyril Roux Irish Central Bank that feeds into the Le Methode of Mario Draghi .

  7. Colin

    The insiders already have the solution and the first step is being implemented as we speak. It’s called the ‘extra-long-working-abroad-holiday-returning-later-with-pockets-full’ policy.

    So, young Seamus goes to the sites in Sydney, Paddy to the mines near Perth, Brid to the banks in Boston, Niamh to the offices in Ontario, Liam to the law firms in London, Mairead to the manufacturing lines in Munich, Aidan to the architecture firms in Auckland and Peig to the private acadamies of Paris.

    And after 10 years there, where they make a lot of money and save it wisely, they return home and plough it into a house purchase in Ireland combined with a bit of a mortgage to cover the rest of it. The economy gets a huge boost in the arm if 10,000 return each year with €100,000 in their back pocket. That is €10bn over a 10 year period.

    Tis great sitting back and doing nothing and let it all take care of itself in the end. Good man Enda.

  8. StephenKenny

    Slightly off topic, but here’s an idea that some people might find interesting:

    It’s a game of backwards thinking, to see whether it casts any useful light on the past 6, and therefore the next X years.

    I was sitting in a cafe with a friend, discussing some recent piece of spin wrapped incomprehensible government lunacy. “They must be insane” we were saying, shaking our heads in wonder, “or completely corrupt” was another option. “What possessed them to do such a thing?”.

    The last question was the one that kicked it all off. “What possessed them to do it?”. We decided to try and find out, or at least think about it.

    It’s always seemed unlikely that so many politicians (all of them in power, really, in all European, and sundry other, countries) were either completely stupid, or completely corrupt.

    So this is what we did: We took a set of related actions, of which we had some knowledge, and, knowing the outcome, tried to recreate the variables and logic that resulted in them.

    We’re quite old, my friend and I, so we feel that we have a reasonable grasp of how politicians think (rather than speak). They’ve always some proportion of an eye out for the main chance, but in most countries they also, to some extent, try to find the right policies for their country at large. And yet, for years now, none of them have.

    So we have an idea of how they process data, at least to some extent, which leaves us with just the question of what the data was, that resulted in all these years of bizarre decisions.

    It sound a bit trite, but give it a go – pick a suitable set of related political actions and recreate the logic, and therefore the shape of the information, that resulted in the actions that you know were decided upon.

    For those who enjoy these sorts of discussions, it’s clearly incredibly engaging, and even for those who don’t, it gets quite startling, quite quickly.

    • Can you talk us through one of your examples please Stephen?

      • Reality Check

        I concur. The Irish do despise each other but they are really good at masking it at opportune times. I was thinking the same to myself today. The lack of basic manners in Dublin gets worse and worse by the day. Btw this Recovery stuff is nonsense; go around Dublin on a Thursday,Friday,Saturday night – the young people are simply not there – they are gone and I don’t blame them one bit.

    • juniorjb

      “In most countries they also, to some extent, try to find the right policies for their country at large”. The problem may be in what precisely this assumption elides: there is in our everyday, official political discourse no concept of antagonism. The generalization of a common interest makes it difficult to even see clearly that the political class may well be achieving the ends they aim at (some of the time anyway), but that these ends may quite simply not be in the best interests of many citizens simply because they aren’t and were never meant to be so. A serving politician with “clients” in the building, banking and asset-rich fraternities, links to European bureaucratic agendas and a brace of buy-to-let properties has an interest in promoting and maintaining high house prices, however burdensome to the general populace or volatile in the economy at large. Talk of the national interest and what’s best for the country assumes that there is a common project that transcends the fractures of conflicting interests at some more than notional or theoretical level. There is no such state of affairs yet our denial of this is a grounding assumption, one that leaves us incredulous before the repeated evidences of fundamental conflicts. Some of these people just are your enemies and actively wish you harm, if only as a by-product of their own agendas.

  9. PK Dunne

    The answer is much simpler.
    Raise stamp duty on investment second or subsequent homes and keep capital gains tax low to encourage investment home owners to sell.

    • Daniel Waxonov

      I was gonna try compile in bullet points ALL the creative solutions i’ve read in relation to our Irish property market ( and many of which,are far more useful than DMW’s cherry-picked [pitiful] four and post same later tonight, but the simplicity of your ‘answer’ alone PK Dunne demonstrates clearly,by Gov’t INACTION, how fu**ing DELIBERATE Enda and his minions are in suffocating the Irish Public.It’s not incompetence!It’s wilful destruction.That’s evil

      http://www.tubechop.com/watch/3673224

    • Mike Lucey

      @PK

      Yes indeed, the carrot and stick principal, simple yet effective. It could work well.

  10. Wills

    ‘It is difficult to see the Government giving up the electoral aphrodisiac of higher house prices Because so much personal wealth is tied up in housing, rising house prices give people in negative equity hope for the future and give those on the right side of the property market the sense that they are wealthier this year than last year.’

    There it is right there the problem the ‘aphrodisiac’ of money and the seemingly lack of resistance in people to delay its gratification.

    The role of government to steward the resources of an economy responsibly – this includes utilities of water, air, electricity and property.

    In Ireland culturally we are in serious problems with respect to safeguarding these utilities. Neo-liberal economics is running the economy from the top down. Thus everything is for sale on the justification that crisis deems it so.

    Shock doctrine economics a cancer eating away at the fabric of society destroying the sanctity of family life, mulching mulching mulching.

    All one has to do now is turn of the news open the papers and the only story in town is money.

    Money is the story.

    And it renders property and water and anything else in Ireland pillaged into oblivion.

    Our society is very sick and our values are deeply corrupted and we are lost.

    • Deco

      +1.

      Actually, the only story town is showing off, (by spending money) and it is promoted as the virtue of our society.

      Our entire modern moral system has been relentlessly sold to the people as liberating, when it’s purpose is to enslave people with debt.

  11. Wills

    One starts to ponder the possibility that the culture in Ireland has been lost for centuries. Merely the corruption adopting different forms throughout history. NAMA to the teenagers today means absolutely nothing, Anglo history. YET, the cost of both they will pay for. Are we dealing with an institutionalised power rolling the masses over from one generation to the next. An economic system locked down, concretised in.

    NAMA will be sold to the teenagers today as the agency which saved the Irish economy. As we all know on here NAMA was a stroke to cover up the truth and make a killing out of an engineered bubble.

    Is our history what we think it is here in Ireland.

    Are we actually in the country we think we are??

    Wtf!

    Did Ireland really get its Independence in 1921.

    I don’t think it did.

    But I know this we are being lied to.

    • Fully agree with you Wills, what we live in is a TOTAL scam and sham society. The proles merely exist to be shamelessly milked by the powers-that-be.

      • What you have to do is try to take practical, real steps to beat ‘them’ at their own game.

        For example, I got up early recently and bought two tickets to the (utterly meaningless and useless) Ireland vs. Australia rugby match in October/November/December (I don’t know when its actually taking place, nor do I give a shite).

        They cost me about €145 – I turned them around in 3 days by selling them to some #Rugger#BuggerBore from D4 for €333.

        Almost 200 quid profit on a poxy rugby match, which paid for my daughter’s school for another month.

        If neo-liberalism is the game they want to play, then the only thing you can do is try to play it better than ‘them’.

        Wealth redistribution at its best.

        • DB4545

          Nice little earner.If you really want to play them at their own game you need to get on a semi-State board or similar quango. They seem to be loading them to the gills at the moment with their cronies, usually a good indication of an election on the way.

        • Daniel Waxonov

          As Niall Tóibín quipped ;”turn an honesht peound ,or a dish-onesht wan,doesn’t mattir ash*it, as long as you turn it”

          Bonbon was right…

          Good grief,maybe monetarism did start in the
          sweet shop…

          The lunatics have taken over the asylum

          game,set,[index] and match !

        • Deco

          Adam – good work.

          You have helped a fool “put on the green jersey” and indulge his sub-intellectual tendency to obsess over grown ups with nothing better to do than follow a plastic lump around a field for over an hour.

          You did something morally responsible. RuggerBoreD4 probably holds a job thanks to daddy’s connections. It is unlikely that he earned the money in the first place from honest effort. If he had, then he would not have thrown it around wildly at such a load of nonsense pursuit, afterwards.

          You daughter deserves the money better than some boring gombeen pumped up with arrogance.

  12. Decent article from one of David’s favourite (not!) journalists:

    The Kink in the Human Brain

    http://www.monbiot.com/2014/10/02/the-kink-in-the-human-brain/

    • Wills

      Thing is David’s article is pointing out the falsities of the economics the ruling interests are applying in order to run another property bubble. And I guess yup one ought to circumvent the piracy afoot in respect to the sh*ts running things. Agreed. Circumvent and render obsolete their corrupt system. I suspect it is a competition of ethics till the death! I know what side I’m on!

  13. E. Kavanagh

    There were plenty of decently priced and cheap property at the last Allsop auction and currently on daft.ie.

    For what problems seem to exist it seems to be a Dublin issue; so the majority of the country is not hit badly at all. And even in Dublin on daft.ie there are nearly 750 properties with an asking price of €200K and under for sale in Dublin City.

    What price do people expect to pay for a residence in the capital?

  14. CallerNJ

    David you are pefectly right, there’s not a chance any of these will happen to ease the houseprices anytime soon.

    Looking further down the line, but this is slightly off your topic of recent delivery, do you think option four will ever be considered.

    In Singapore they have the Housing and Development Board (HDB), it’s government sponsored (controlled), and it works. It works so well. I understand the environment is totally different culturally, economically and in other ways, but do you think it could work?

    Unlike Ballymun, which was a complete disaster in hindsight, the HDB meticulously plan the developments. These are fully functionally planned townships within the city, complete with shops, schools, clinics, police stations, fire brigades, sports facilitues, religious facilities, and so on, usually located centrally within the township. Public transport pre-empts the development. Do you think this could work in Ireland or are the Irish unavle to plan ahead. I am confident we Irish can plan ahead, so could this be viable? I’m sure you’ve been to Singapore and understand what I’m talking about here.
    For more info look up HDB Singapore.

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