December 30, 2013

What we've learned from the past year -- and where we are heading

Posted in Banks · 79 comments ·
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Now that we are at the end of the year, here are a few things that 2013 taught us about economics, how our economy is doing and what determines where it goes from here.

HOUSES AND PROPERTY PRICES

This was the year the property market started showing signs of life. Two years ago, in January 2012, this column suggested here that Irish house prices would stop falling in 2012 and begin to start rising in 2013.

Interestingly, back in early 2013 after five years of house prices falls, the notion that house prices would rise sooner than people expected was met with derision. But that’s what happens. When things are good most people don’t think that the good times will end and when things are bad most people think things can’t ever get better.

Regarding the property market, lots of people are worried about a “bubble” re-emerging. This is not a bubble; it is merely a reflection of supply and demand.

During the boom, when a few of us were calling the boom a “bubble” and warning that it would burst, the mainstream was saying it was supply and demand. Now I am saying this recent rise is a case of supply and demand and the mainstream is calling it a bubble.

You can’t have a bubble without credit and there is no credit, or very little credit, in the Irish system. Even as house prices rose in the past few months, mortgage lending didn’t grow in tandem, actually it fell. We are seeing a cash-driven market, which is very unusual. It implies that there is no bubble because you need leverage for a bubble and there is no risk of a reversal in prices unless the banks get involved again, which they have not got the capital to do, just yet.

However, we should be aware of the societal impacts of a cash-driven property market. It means that legitimate first-time buyers are being priced out of the market by cash-rich investors. The reason is simple. Sellers prefer cash buyers and because the cash buyer doesn’t have to borrow the money at 5pc from the bank, he will always be able to outbid the first-time buyer.

RECOVERY IN CONSUMPTION

In the past few months there has been a slight pick-up in final demand in the country. This is consistent with the analysis offered in the column for years. The recession in Ireland is what is called in economics a balance sheet recession, caused by the collapse of a property bubble, which destroyed the balance sheet of the middle class. In such a recession, the savings ratio rises as those with money — both individuals and companies — save huge amounts and those in debt try to pay back what they can. Obviously domestic demand collapses. But as the people save, the Government has to spend, otherwise the economy goes into a total tailspin.

Thus the budget deficit, far from being the cause of our woes (as the government policy of slashing the budget deficit suggested), is actually the consequence.

All the private sector savings imply that there is possible “pent-up” demand, which starts to be spent when some confidence returns, which it has done this year.

CONFIDENCE AND ROLE OF UK

The best thing that happened in the past year has been the increase in jobs in the country. Why did this happen? And why did it happen in the second half of 2013?

My best guess, given that domestic demand was held back by tax hikes, spending cuts and a lack of credit, is that it has come from outside. But what was the most positive development in Ireland’s meaningful trading partners?

The European economy remained on the canvas last year and it is now flirting with deflation and record levels of unemployment. The US economy is in better shape, granted, but hardly match fit — as evidenced by the Fed’s injection of €85bn into the economy every single month.

The economy that really surpassed expectations was the UK — our biggest trading partner, home to our largest recent emigrant population, our biggest tourist market and by far the largest buyer of Irish agricultural produce.

When looking for reasons the Irish economy did better in the second half of the year, look no further than a massive boost from the UK’s much better-than-expected performance. This also propelled sterling upwards, making Irish companies competitive in Britain and Ireland a cheaper place to visit for our neighbours.

Yet, if you were looking for anyone in official Ireland to credit the UK’s role in the past 12 months, you’d be waiting a long time because as usual they are in Brussels pleading with some Eurocrat or other.

THE PROMISSORY NOTE

Last March, Ireland defaulted in all but name on a €3bn payment of a €30bn IOU. A default is when you change the terms of a debt repayment to the benefit of the debtor and to the detriment of the creditor. Defaults are always a cash-flow event. Anything that changed the contract to benefit the cash flow of the debtor at the expense of the cash flow of the creditor is a default.

By kicking out the promissory note payment to 2038, we changed the terms of the contract with our creditor and didn’t pay. Readers will know that I support this wholeheartedly and would go for a full non-repayment rather than one that is postponed two generations out into the future. That said, the interesting aspect of not paying the promissory note is that nothing happened. Before this event, many argued that non-payments would scare the market. In the event the opposite happened. The yield on Irish government debt fell, implying less risk after we didn’t pay!

Why is this? It is because, (a) the debt was not legitimate and, (b) for the financial markets, not paying the note improved Ireland’s cash flow.

Now that the precedent has been set, we could do something similar with promissory notes and the present hole in the banks, which threatens another banking crisis next year.

DRAGHI

This year was also the year of Draghi and his threats to and nudging of the financial markets ensured that Greece — the biggest defaulter in history in 2012 in terms of sheer numbers — was the country with the best performing bond market in 2013!

MULTINATIONALS

It was the year when the myth of multinationals paying 12pc tax was blown apart. They, in fact, pay 2.5pc effective corporate tax in Ireland. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US multi-nationals in Ireland reported net income of €95.6bn. On this “taxes other than income and payroll taxes” payable in Ireland in 2010 amounted to €2.4bn, giving an effective rate of tax of 2.5pc.

THE DIASPORA

A few short years ago, anyone who suggested that the diaspora could be a small but important economic resource for the country was laughed at. Today, almost everyone has a “diaspora strategy” of some class or other. The Gathering was one such event. It was a success and could be built on by other initiatives such as Ireland Reaching Out.

THE NEXT STEP

Looking back on the year, the economy is still much, much smaller than it was at its peak. There are 400,000 fewer people here and many hundreds of thousands of lives have been destroyed by long-term unemployment, but the local economy is beginning, very gingerly, to recover. A big deal on mortgage debts, using something like a promissory note again, could help 2014 enormously.

 

 

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  1. Tull McAdoo

    Subscribe

    • A lot on here about housing bubble possibly never worked In construction In there Lives what people don’t no Is the bubble was designed to assist corruption the local authority’s we’re bought and paid for. What’s Less known are the criminal activity of the Irish CIF and It’s cohort of criminal company’s who have gleamed the pension contributions of workers ever since 1965 how do I know I was that man who was offered €3 a year after a Lifetime transparency Is a lovely word for the continuation of the bastardization of the kings English It will be solved but the man that had the answer died 2 weeks ago,

      • Tull McAdoo

        “Country Tom” Parlon won’t be too pleased with you denegrating the new loveofhis live, the CIF!

        I can still remember “Uncle Tom’s” quote when he was asked about a missing developer back earlier in the year…..
        “I hadn’t seen him at any golf outings but just assumed Kevin was doing his 6 months Scunthorpe for a quckie bankruptcy”

        There you have it folks, it seem’s like there is a “developer bubble” emerging in Scunthorpe of all places….

        Seem’s like only yesterday that these developers were moving in the “Premier League” like Florida and Chicago (tallest building in the world ha ha)…..now its pork pies and cheap beer on the away trips to Scunthore in “League 2” for 6 months……..Jasus austerity is a real bitch…..

  2. Dorothy Jones

    via Holger Zschaepitz, @Schuldensuehner :

    World’s top bond market in 2013? #Greece. Greek bonds returned 47%, almost 4 times as much as any other govt bonds.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/417617574424109056/photo/1

  3. Dorothy Jones

    Mario Draghi has spoken out against the “perverse angst” displayed by Germans over the European Central Bank’s policies

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10542289/Draghi-complains-of-perverse-angst-among-Germans.html

    Spiegel interview with Draghi [German] http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-chef-draghi-sieht-ermutigende-zeichen-bei-euro-rettung-a-941064.html

  4. Dorothy Jones

    Not only multi-nationals but also wealthy individuals based in Ireland avoid paying tax. These companies use the same Dutch schemes that enable Bono escape paying tax on about 95% of his income.

    From FinFacts : Bono’s hypocrisy on Africa, corporate tax avoidance in Ireland
    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026589.shtml

  5. pauloriain

    Dublin house price increases in 2013 can also be seen as a swing back from an over correction in the wrong direction and are coming back to a more accurate level. 30 percent increase scare is just not credible.

  6. StephenKenny

    Bubbles only caused by leverage? So if a couple of large funds got it into their heads to buy a €1bn if residential property in Dublin, then the subsequent rocketing prices wouldn’t be a bubble?
    Surely, a bubble is caused by unsustainable funds going into a market/asset class: short term speculative cash; loans on the back of, for example, interest rates at a pension destroying 300 year low; loans with
    wver decreasing collatoral; etc

    • bonbon

      Odd omission there – the very same people were not asked if, along with cuts, their deposits be levied as well. The trick is to ask that in a totally independent separate poll, and to raid their accounts on a quick short weekend, after they accepted cuts.

      That way all talk of conspiracy is off the table, you see.

      • Paul Divers

        You missed the point.

        The headline should read ’75% of Irish not willing to bail out Euro’.

        It is a classic propaganda trick that needs to be exposed. Expect an avalanche of such bs in 2014.

        • bonbon

          The point is people will be bailed-in without a poll or permission. So it is irrelevant what that poll “proves”. That poll did show that most have no clue about recent treaty changes. As if the EU gives a choice!

          • Paul Divers

            I know people will be told what to do.

            The point is the poll ‘proves’ nothing and the Irish people are being subjected to dishonesty or ignorance from almost everyone in politics.

          • bonbon

            That I can heartily confirm! Serfdom is a curse!

  7. bonbon

    “There are 400,000 fewer people here and many hundreds of thousands of lives have been destroyed by long-term unemployment, ”

    That is the indictment of both governments, FF and FG/LP.

    • Paul Divers

      So what would you suggest as an alternative?

      • bonbon

        The problem is an imported British sentimental morality. See next comment….

        • Paul Divers

          ideas jumping around like fleas

          • whatamess

            Our National debt is a “ten pound flea on a one pound dog” and we now need propulsion, not flea sized ideas

          • Paul Divers

            True.

            But people with one track minds and no personality are about as useful as fleas and their world view is flea sized.

          • whatamess

            But personality has zeeero to do with Truth ,and ‘faith’ is not a pathway to Truth,right? We use reason as a pathway to Truth in every endeavour of our lives, but then with it comes to Truth in economics, the laissez-faire,mar dhea trust and faith in free markets, actually blinds us asto what ‘could be’ ,if we wilfully combine our creativity and science.

            Faith is the excuse people give for believing something when they don’t have evidence and what some people take on faith e.g. spontaneous economic growth in unknowable ways in so called free markets ,has had a very dear cost to us ALL! I don’t have such faith, but I do have reasonable expectations based on evidence and I have trust that has been earned.

            Faith is not a virtue and we need to divorce ourselves from these anecdotal economic doctrines, proffering delusions through a monetary lens. It’s evidence that determines whether or not our perception of reality is reasonable and in conjunction with the world, as it REALLY is.

            So lets deal with reality, on reality’s terms and reinstate the principle of Glass Steagall, tested for decades and never found wanting

          • Paul Divers

            Faith is the whole point of life. Faith in yourself and faith in the thought people will see you off when the reaper calls. I know I would want some of you old Irish Bros to remember me, your thorn, at least for old times sake :-)

            I am sure you and Bonbon will be there at the last gasp. I have faith in you both

            To me faith is about having common cause with others wanting to be listened to and it is the reason we are sometimes tempted to become affiliated.

            But that is a trap. Affiliates are unreliable and so it is wise to be as unaffiliated and as invisible as possible. Minimum points of contact. P. O’Neill style.

            ‘You will find it very difficult to change Irish politics by trying to form a new political party’

            Really. Says who? I can’t stand godly right wing catholics and figure they need much more nookie but I will not let anyone tell them to shut their mouths as long as they pretend to talk sense.

            But they don’t. They need proper PR, web savvy coaching and some physical and intellectual space in which to grow, relax and find their truth without crutches. They are not capable of it.

            Faith is desperately sought by people quietly in chapels with or without the help of drink and pharmaceuticals and demanded loudly and without fear on the slopes of raucous sporting arenas like Hampden Park.

            But without camaraderie there is no faith and you can’t win European Cups with a home grown team unless you have faith in people

            The point is you have to have to show rather than tell. Re put in a proper shift and produce the goods such as humiliating Real Mardid in the Bernabau

            You can’t change an outpost of the British Empire if you don’t have faith. An outpost like Ireland that has never been a proper country at all. A no mans land used for experimenting the twisted theories of Friedman et al.

            A nasty experiment in human rights abuses for which the perpatrators should be brought before an international court

            But it’s New Years Eve

            After reading this you will want some cheering up:

            I am tired and depressed and can’t come up with anything better. Boo Hoo.

            Glen Daly – When I Leave Old Glasgow Behind

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTStgLxzMx4

            Happy New Year Everyone.

          • whatamess

            @Pól

            But blind desire by some of choosing to trust and have faith ,minus any evidence ,are just false,irrational assumptions ….Emotions/sentimentality and Reason simply don’t mix,right?The warm fuzzy inner-feelings of self-serving monetary ideologies is a Fraud.These people care little for Truth and we all need a grand dose of TRUTH, especially now.[Conditioning / indoctrination in EVERY sense of these words, is the purposeful and wilful intent of empire to corrupt and poison TRUTH....Master and slave dynamics]

            I am aware of Abiogenesis, which is an amazing discovery,but pseudo faith and trust of spontaneous growth emerging from mountains of debt,without our human design,that’ll meet our physical economies’ needs ,after decades of entropy, are destructively delusional.[even fish need sufficient ppm of Oxygen to eeeven just survive and it’s easy to observe our reality and the rainbow trout of our economies,are floating on the water surface.We need to intervene! Glass Steagall is that intervention!

            A theory is not some unsubstantiated claim,rather a framework that has been tested and understood to explain observed REALITY so when people say that GS is ” just a theory”, (and it functioned well for decades !!?) they mite as well say, we’re all living, in “just reality” yunno.

            One bankrupt evil casino empire is coming to an end. I certainly don’t want it to re-appear,in any guise,from the primordial soup of post even an orderly crash.If we use our creativity,we can choose and wilfully orchestrate a better future,FREE of serfdom.

            Have a healthy 2014

  8. bonbon

    It seems DMcW and the mainstream, have massive problems with the concept of credit, throwing bubble expletives at each other. I would venture that stems from the muddle of the Keynes-Hayek dog-and-pony economics circus.

    To clarify the principle of Credit :

    For a New Credit System

    The flea circus that Keynes, Hayek and Friedman posture in, is shown up as simply serfdom.

  9. joe hack

    “THE NEXT STEP” – envision the sound of a goose step – financially or military – the IO-EU is starting to appear like a Taylor Burton relationship…

    • bonbon

      “IO-EU” – that’s good. LOL !

      “A man that hoards up riches and enjoys them not, is like an ass that carries gold and eats thistles.”

    • Paul Divers

      Yes.

      See ‘Opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership’ below

      The corporations are busy ensuring that the laws are being created now for future tyranny. Soon nation states will have the same status as county councils.

  10. Adelaide

    “House Sellers prefer cash buyers..”
    Could David or someone please explain why this is so. I’ve often heard this expression and never understood its logic.

    • michaelcoughlan

      The reason is because it allows both parties to close the sale a lot quicker.

      If the purchaser has to sell a house so that he could buy the next one or is awaiting approval to draw down a mortgage then there could be any length of delays.

      Michael.

    • Only where an offered price is similar. Cash buyers here may be the only offer. If there were an offer from a buyer requiring finance that buyer would likely be accepted by the seller if the offer was higher than that from any cash buyer around at the same time.
      In the housing market Cash is not necessarily King. Buyers using a mortgage can be pre-qualified and are not always delayed in closing.

      Of course when buyers do not qualify for a mortgage loan, no matter what they do, then the debate is irrelevant as only cash buyers are available.

      In the past the extravagant use of credit in the housing market drove prices higher than cash buyers could afford. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

  11. Adelaide

    Cash buyers outbidding each other for scarce quality houses in a handful of desirable areas is a localised Dead Cat Bounce. It’ll dry up.

    I follow Daft.ie regularly as I’m half-heartedly house hunting nationwide and house prices outside Dublin are noticeably dropping.
    Meanwhile, rents in Dublin are noticeably soaring.

    I’m back in work and the landlords of two colleagues-renters have demanded exorbitant rent increases while another has just rented a 2-bed house in D12 for e1600 per month. This is simply gouging on the fact that, yes, there is a pent up demand for housing but nobody’s getting mortgages (the rate of approved mortgages actually decreased in this last quarter compared to last year) but they need a roof and therefore renting is the only choice.

    According to Retail Ireland, Christmas spending was on par with last year, 2013 had a very poor pre-Christmas matched by a very good post-Christmas.

    And finally, yikes, I sound like a humbug, Max Keiser’s outlook for the UK is polar opposite to David’s.

    Constantin Gurdgiev predicts 2104 to be a stagnant year on the condition that a whole host of negative events do not transpire. So it’s fingers crossed for a stagnant year, knock on wood.

  12. Adelaide

    “Bitcoin Is Evil”
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/?_r=0

    I believe that Einstein lent the Nobel Prize its credibility and not vice versa. People equate the Nobel with Einstein and hence its allure. In reality the Nobel is as credible as X-Factor when one reads through the list of previous winners across the fields. That this Krugman clown won it is further proof.

    • bonbon

      The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is a later addition. Yes most of these laureates are totally incompetent. But even Krugman notices that Bitcoin pushes the same buttons as the gold fetish.
      It is indeed pushed as some kind of anti-bank subterfuge, but Krugman mentions tax – can a gov’t accept payment in bitcoin? And what is that about a limit of 21 million bitcoins?

      • Adelaide

        The Chinese disparagingly call the Japanese “Dog People” because of their inability to function without a master. Krugman is obviously a “Dog Person” in relation to his masterly government.

        “Who’s that doggy in the window? It’s a Nobel Prize winning Economist. Wuff Wuff.”

    • bonbon

      Yet again I see Krugman mentioning the “dislike of activist gov’t” of his opponents, but not mentioning the Andrew Jackson “simple machinery of gov’t” populism (afaik).

      • Adelaide

        I went to buy Bitcoin with the intention of purchasing a laptop but the experience was so non-user-friendly I declined. I hope it every success though.

  13. bonbon

    Around 28pc of the €12bn worth of contracts awarded by state bodies in 2013 were won by companies based outside Ireland – up from 18pc the previous year, putting Ireland at the top of the list of countries most likely to award contracts to foreign companies, according to Tony Corrigan of TenderScout. Guess where these go : UK and NI.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/ireland-loses-35bn-as-state-contracts-go-to-foreign-firms-29874247.html

    Apparently tender costs are so exorbitant Irish companies don’t even compete. Something DMcW failed to register above.

  14. bonbon

    From DT to the Indo :
    The West has lost control and disaster awaits

    Writer fails to mention the firing of Bismarck or at all, but gets the period right.
    Russia is testing ICBM’s now as the new Eastern Front (Ukraine) becomes deadly – Volgograd. Any disaster now would mean extinction. What does the EU think it is going for?

  15. bonbon

    Land Grab of Farmland in Eastern Germany and East Europe Is Underway, Spurred by EU Co-Funding for Biofuels

    Hot money investment groups are increasingly buying up arable lands in eastern Germany, which is a pattern also encountered in other parts of Eastern Europe. The process is spurred by the considerable benefit from the generous EU co-funding of expansion of farm land used for bio-fuels.

    In five years, prices for land in some regions have tripled, reaching EU25,000 per hectare. For those farmers and cooperatives which farm a substantial part of their land area, on the basis of leasing, the rising rental expenses imply ruin—and make more land attractive for investor groups.

  16. ps200306

    A bubble doesn’t need credit, it just needs people willing and able to pay more than the long term sustainable price. We have that in spades — for the utterly tiny number of desirable south Dublin properties that are coming on the market. Elsewhere, even in Dublin, prices fell in 2013. A chorus of vested interests are talking about a “recovery”. House price rises are not a recovery, they are an unwelcome development in a capital city where even after the biggest crash in history, prices are still obscenely high in many areas. But we can rely on the Irish to never cop on to themselves and see the madness for what it is. In any case, they have nothing to worry about in an economy where apparently there are no negative consequences for not paying your mortgage — at least ,that is, not to yourself.

    • Adelaide

      The day is not far off when the average Dublin house price will be 100k-115k. I’d bet my house on it if I had a house. People scoff at the prediction but when I explain the math they become sullen and revert to emotional arguments. Perhaps they bought at the height of the boom and are sore but in that case don’t raise the topic of house prices assuming everyone is equally deluded in nodding-head sheepish agreement.

    • paddythepig

      Dalkey syndrome?

  17. Adelaide

    I saw this front page headline on the newsstand.
    “Pent Up Demand For Wage Increases Risks Recovery”
    Discuss.

    • Paul Divers

      Tomorrow’s headline ..

      ’25% of Irish willing to accept pay cuts to save recovery’.

      • Adelaide

        Classic spin there by the SpIndo, although they shoot themselves in the foot by saying “that those in higher social classes are more willing to accept cuts for the sake of the single currency”, so one can presume the above 25% was entirely made up of our politicians and the other 75% were non-politicians.

  18. Adelaide

    How do you explain profitable medium ICT companies with salary freezes for the last five years? On my observation there are three scenarios when a company has locked in salary freeze, the management recognise their key personnel and by hush-hush hook&crook keep them sweet with all-but-in-name salary increases and the company motors along nicely as before, the second scenario is a repeat of the first but here the staff rumble the hook&crook scheme and there is a poisonous air bad blood and the company begins a death spiral, the third scenario is the management don’t recognise their key personnel who inevitably move on to greener pastures and then accounting for a time-lag then suddenly inexplicably to management the company begins losing big-ticket sales and it’s panic stations. The second two companies are heading for extinction and the first is praying their sweetening scheme remains secret from their non-key staff but inevitably it will be exposed and it too will implode. In summary, profitable medium ICT companies with locked-in salary freezes won’t remain profitable for long. On paper it should, in reality, tut tut.

  19. Paul Divers

    A useful link

    Below the links about the Government there is a plethora of reasons to cop on and avoid placing your data and internet activity in the hands of tech corporations and governments

    https://sites.google.com/site/corpsins/

    It is extremely difficult to put back doors in open source software. This is cop on number 1. Stop using defective products.

    2014 and beyond is much bigger than parochial nonsense like the cash price of a south dublin pile or the moral utterings of loose lipped secret kinksters parading as moral guardians in public

    The bigger picture is far more interesting but in tiny little Ireland we have no-one capable of ‘looking at things from altitude’ and we are all ‘pent up’ in some form or another, so ‘we’ are told

    I am beginning to love that phrase. Pent up.

    After we get to the heart of the matter it should be confined to the dustbin

  20. A longer term perspective on the world economy from a Chinese observer.
    Re the stability of the 1814-1914 era to the record instability from 1914 cumulating in todays disasters as yet unresolved.

    http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/china-accumulates-gold-world-dream

  21. redriversix

    This whole financial War is a Ponzi Scheme..nothing more..nothing less.

    Debating Garbage is really becoming boring..not to say I find anyone here boring..its just that we,as a people must move on.Concentrate on the positive things in life.

    Some days I get really annoyed..the next day I am wondering “what the fuck am I giving away my peace of mind for”?

    Depression can still hang around,you don’t go through a major life event without some scars..but its not here today,…and thats all that matters.

    Saying all that,I do enjoy studying History,Economic History & Military History..my wife refers to it as my “light reading”…

    its not negative..knowledge is power..no matter how bleak or “real” the subject..take negative information and make positive decisions from it to protect yourself & your family.

    We are living through truly historic times..Things are gonna get worse & thats ok…better to be prepared and accept the worst,anything after thats a bonus.

    All Ponzi schemes end in disaster as this one will…the powers that be will hope they will have taken control of as many real assets and Natural resources as they can before their worthless paper money scheme collapses around them…..if they have to fight for them…they will…or ,worse..you or your children will…

    A Ponzi Scheme….

    1/ exponentially increasing Liabilities or in plain english,rapidly mounting debt

    2/ Crappy non-existent or inadequate assets

    3/Deceitful..or non-existent accounting

    4/feeble/enert or toothless regulators

    5/get rich quick culture,salted with a whole array of inappropriate incentives

    6/ Stupid,ignorant & Lazy Investors

    7/ A astonishing capacity for self delusion.

    These are the ingredients for Ponzi schemes…any of the above seem familiar ?

    Have a great day
    A very happy New year to all here and the best of luck for 2014….

    Remember,fuck the begrudgers..stick with the winners…..finally….

    Shit Happens !

    Barry

    • Paul Divers

      Fear not RR6.

      If depression was not a part of everyday life then we would not have loose cannons destroying the lot of 99% of humanity. The one percent are very depressed today thanks to the efforts from people like yourself. They are on the run and have no place to hide. Take comfort from that fact.

      It is tempting to give up when you know how the deck is stacked but it is the injustice that makes you want to get out of bed

      Soon the injustice of it all will be undeniable and the Neo-Con ideology will be exposed and discarded to the dustbin of history as it sorely deserves. Like white trash idedology from 1950 southern states.

      Keep the Faith Barry. You are not alone.

  22. redriversix

    This whole financial War is a Ponzi Scheme..nothing more..nothing less.

    Debating Garbage is really becoming boring..not to say I find anyone here boring..its just that we,as a people must move on.Concentrate on the positive things in life.

    Some days I get really annoyed..the next day I am wondering “what the fuck am I giving away my peace of mind for”?

    Depression can still hang around,you don’t go through a major life event without some scars..but its not here today,…and thats all that matters.

    Saying all that,I do enjoy studying History,Economic History & Military History..my wife refers to it as my “light reading”…

    its not negative..knowledge is power..no matter how bleak or “real” the subject..take negative information and make positive decisions from it to protect yourself & your family.

    We are living through truly historic times..Things are gonna get worse & thats ok…better to be prepared and accept the worst,anything after thats a bonus.

    All Ponzi schemes end in disaster as this one will…the powers that be will hope they will have taken control of as many real assets and Natural resources as they can before their worthless paper money scheme collapses around them…..if they have to fight for them…they will…or ,worse..you or your children will…

    A Ponzi Scheme….

    1/ exponentially increasing Liabilities or in plain english,rapidly mounting debt

    2/ Crappy non-existent or inadequate assets

    3/Deceitful..or non-existent accounting

    4/feeble/enert or toothless regulators

    5/get rich quick culture,salted with a whole array of inappropriate incentives

    6/ Stupid,ignorant & Lazy Investors

    7/ A astonishing capacity for self delusion.

    These are the ingredients for Ponzi schemes…any of the above seem familiar ?

    Have a great day
    A very happy New year to all here and the best of luck for 2014….

    Remember,fuck the begrudgers..stick with the winners…..finally….

    Shit Happens !

    Regards

    Barry

  23. Paul Divers

    New year used to be spent in the tenements.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSz54539hSI

  24. Paul Divers

    A Chairde

    The Corries Bonnie Dundee

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Av2-A-igOJk

    Happy New Year folks and be the best you can be in 2014.

    Mise le meas.

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