December 20, 2012

Mortgage debt deal can prevent 'default disease' from spreading

Posted in Irish Independent · 178 comments ·
Share 

By far the most important statistic to come out in Ireland in the past few days is yet more evidence of the relentless rise in the number of people falling into mortgage arrears. Since 2006, this column has been arguing that the inverse of a house price bubble is a debt bubble and, as night follows day, when the house price bubble bursts, so too will the debt bubble.

The biggest myth of the boom was that house prices always go up. The second biggest myth was the soft landing in prices. The biggest myth of the bust is that the debt is sustainable. The second biggest myth is that there will be a soft landing in debt defaults. The soft landing in defaults suggests that defaults will be limited to very exposed borrowers.

In the same way as wishful thinking in the boom was nonsense; wishful thinking in the bust is similarly misplaced.

Central Bank figures show that 86,146 private residential mortgage accounts are in arrears of more than 90 days. Over 67,000 are in arrears of more than 180 days.

Unless this is arrested, we are likely to see a pattern in mortgage default much like we see contagion in a disease. Defaults go viral.

Think about the way viruses spread. Initially, incidents of the disease are isolated to what are called high-risk groups. Those not in the high-risk group content themselves that they are not really at risk and that they can carry on like normal. But gradually the disease tips over into the general population, creating the conditions for a pandemic.

The way in which defaults tip is one part financial and economic and one part psychological or social.

The key to the economic part is income. If your income is rising faster than the cost of debt or your overall ability to meet debt and other bills, all might just be okay. If not, you are goosed.

This is where yesterday’s GDP figures come in. There is good news in the income data. Forget GDP, which measures output and focus on GNP, which measures income.

Yesterday, the GNP figures were strong. This newspaper reported that “Gross national product fell 0.4pc in the third quarter from the second quarter but rose 3.7pc from the year earlier period.”

So here we have a conundrum. The national income is going up, yet the defaults on mortgages are rising rapidly. What does this mean? It implies that the total income of the country is not percolating down to wages, which is the main source of income for most of us. So what is happening?

Well, when you break down income it can be either wages, that is the proportion of income that goes to workers or it can be profit, which is the proportion of income that goes to capital. Could it be that profitability in Ireland is recovering quite rapidly? This is what you would expect after five years of downturn. Typically profits recover much faster than wages, as an economy stops contracting.

This might be the best interpretation of the disparity between domestic income rising and mortgage arrears also rising.

The other factor is, of course, taxes — both direct and indirect — and the labour market.

If your mortgage is taking a significant proportion of monthly income, then two factors determine whether you will have enough at the end of the month to pay it.

The first is obviously work. The better chance you have of working, keeping your job or moving to a better one, the better chance you will have of paying your mortgage.

Looking out to 2013, the outlook for employment is not rosy, while the chances of getting a pay rise are equally slim. In contrast, we now know that taxes are rising across the board, this reduces take home pay, which reduces the amount of money left to pay the mortgage.

Consequently, the squeeze on households will remain vice-like in 2013 even if company profitability recovers.

This may lead to the strange and seemingly counterintuitive picture emerging over the next 12 months where corporate investment recovers as it has been these last few quarters, yet household incomes and defaults continue to rise.

If this is the picture that emerges, we can actually figure out a way of manipulating the economic cycle to the betterment of society.

How?

Arrears are a sign that debt is simply too big and needs to be reduced. Cyclical upswings in investment mean that the corporate balance sheet is beginning to mend itself. Meanwhile, rising profitability is what should be now happening.

This means a mortgage debt deal is more necessary than ever because that part of the economy, which wasn’t in huge debt before the crash, is healing. This is a huge positive and this crucial change is what can be gleaned from the cumulative national income statistics.

In fact, if it could be executed, a debt deal could use the banks as a skip for bad debt. For the first time the banks, which have dragged the economy down for the past five years, might actually be used as a quarantine zone.

They would take on all the debt, rather than the people taking on the debt.

Here’s the deal. A large debt for equity swap needs to be done for the mortgages to prevent more arrears and defaults. If the ECB, which is proving itself much more inventive, can be convinced of the merits of this, we have a chance.

The banks take 50pc ownership of homes. These homes are sold in 20 years’ time. The banks get paid then. In the meantime the people pay half the mortgage, which is affordable. They don’t default now but get on with the business of living. The ECB takes as “collateral” the potential equity upside that banks are holding. In effect it gives the banks a price today on Irish houses which are not worth much today but will be in 20 years.

This is a large debt for equity swap where the ECB acts as the lender of last resort for the Irish banks, who in turn act as a quarantine mechanism for the toxic Irish household debt. This prevents the default disease from spreading and becoming a financial pandemic.

All the while the embryonic recovery we may be seeing in national account figures is given a chance to take hold.

David McWilliams’ new book The Good Room is out now.


  1. beealark

    Have read your column for years… it is the first idea that I agree with…

    • “we can actually figure out a way of manipulating the economic cycle to the betterment of society.”
      Here is where David presents the “only” solution to the problem. The peoples hero once again presents a lifeline to the banks. I often wonder did Brian Lenihan know he was walking into the vipers den when he called to McWilliams’s house. Let’s not forget it was McWilliams who advised him to throw a lifeline to the banks. Again the only solution.

      I have many time requested McWilliams to critique other solution. Even if he thinks they are rubbish, that is no reason to stonewall them. Now even Jaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof from the IMF have presented a favourable paper on the Chicago Plan http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf but to McWilliams such alternatives don’t exist. As with Keynes New deal in the 1930’s McWilliams will only present solutions where the control of the money supply remains in the bankers hands.

      It is nearly two years ago since I accused David of misleading the public with his article
      http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/01/26/party-is-now-over-for-ecb-and-bunga-bunga-banks. David email me with the comment “fair point, my mistake”. It was when he continued to make this “MISTAKE” that confirms, In the case of THE PEOPLE Vs THE BANKS this guy is on the banks side. The comment got traction so cute David email me rather than post the comment on the chat.

      • Realist

        By reading your proposal I just see another scheme for more governmental control that brings 100% governmental inflation and control.
        It is like saying government is innocent, they just spent a few trillions so they are not bad:

        “The critical feature of this model is that the economy’s money supply is created by banks, through debt, rather than being created debt-free by the
        government.”

        Excellent article on breaking this fallacy plan:
        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-11/guest-post-why-chicago-plan-flawed-reasoning-and-would-fail

        • cooldude

          Interesting article Realist. This keeps coming back to the flawed nature of our current unbacked floating currency system. Right now the stated goal of ALL Central Banks is to debase their currency in order to make their exports cheaper. They do this through excess liquidity schemes such as QE and keeping interest rates way below their market level through Zirp and similar schemes. This competition is really starting to hot up with Japan threatening to really up the ante and get down to some serious currency creation. The end result of this currency war will be the destruction of the current batch of currencies probably through an episode of extreme inflation. The only protection from this inevitable outcome is to switch assets into assets which cannot be debased such as gold and silver.

          • Realist

            Thanks cooldude.
            We need to talk as much as possible to make people aware of danger of more government control.
            As you said monopoly on money creation is what is wrong.

            Governments created originally problem by putting central banks and fractional-reserve banking in place.
            Now they think to take that control back, instead of releasing control all together and leave people judge what is worth using.
            In the past they always find the cause why to debase money, wars to fight, trip to Moon, …
            Central bank anyway can be controlled as government have Garda, Army and Law behind if they want.
            Why waste time on new wrong setups :)

        • Typical response, the inflation argument. The question remain who’s credit is it. If it is the common wealth why do private banks control it. There is no utopia but any 10 year old who has done compound interest will understand that the current credit system is doomed to failure.

          • cooldude

            I happen to agree with your basic idea that no sovereign nation needs to pay interest to a private central bank for the privelage of creating money at very little cost to themselves. This is the reason Lincoln and JFK were both shot because they refused to play along with the international bankers little game of interest and both started issuing money direct from treasury. On the issue of inflation I think if people are allowed to hold different types of money and be allowed to freely exchange them at whatever rate the market decides this will prevent governments abusing their money creation because people will simply exchange their notes for types of money that cannot be debased such as gold and silver or even bitcoin. I also agree that the present system is doomed to failure but I am wary of giving the government exclusive rights over what we can use as money. By all means let them print direct from treasury and scrap these central bank ponzi schemes but also give people choice in what the can use as a both a medium of exchange and more importantly a store of value.

          • Realist

            I agree with you that this credit expansion cannot sustain too long.
            I lived once in the country where inflation every week eaten 90% of paper money and had money with 20 or so zeros!!!! We even wiped our asses with money instead of toilet paper as it was cheaper.

            What I wanted to point is monopoly on money creation given to government and that brings me back again to old days where that did not really work.
            Politicians could go to the printing press and order more money to be printed, as electronic money was not that popular as nowadays.

            Do not forget and be blind that government have no control of such things today too.
            Central bankers are paid and have salaries from public coffers.
            They serve nobody then themselves.
            They are not bothering killing economy now, why would they bother doing it in the future with your plan?

            How will your plan prevent credit expansion driven by government for whatever reason?
            In the plan it is totally unclear fractionl-reserve banking problem as full reserve banking is not really expressed clearly at all.
            How will this solve sovereign debt as government will just have their own printing press?
            Who will stop them debasing the money?

          • Adam Byrne

            Which country was this Realist?

          • Realist

            It was European country so I am sure you will figure it out :)

          • Adam Byrne

            Poland:

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Poland.2C_1989.E2.80.931990

            I visited Yugoslavia in 1989 and it was similar, although not as severe.

          • Realist

            It was Yugoslavia 1993/1994:
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Yugoslavia

            And I was wrong about 20 zeros, as the biggest was 500 billions. Sorry about it.

            They said in there peak month inflation was meager 250%:
            Peak Month and Rate of Inflation: Nov. 1993, 250%

            Unsure this as true to be honest, as I said I was writing cheques today, they will come for payment next week and be worth 10%.
            But let’s stick to official stats like usual as I have no other proof :)

          • Adam Byrne

            Ok thanks, I spent a lovely holiday in Trogir in 1989.

      • bonbon

        Firstly there is a plain lie, and secondly an untruth about the Chicago plan. Amounting to a real hill of beans.
        FDR explicitly rejected that Fisher Chicago “petition”, and Keynes, especially at Bretton Woods.

        What FDR actually did was revive Hamiltonian methods with the Reconstruction Finance Corp, with the TVA and New Deal against the committed resistance of Britain’s Wall Street. While FDR was doing this, Keynes “Grand Theory” was published with a German preface that only a totalitarian state could implement it.

        The IMF in utterly incapable of respecting anything other than Fisher and Keynes, both of the London School of Economics, and both by the way heads of Eugenics Societies.

        That hapless IMF plan has been posted here a dozen times. It is to be simply ignored and it was then.

        What a useless IMF it is indeed.

        IMF Managing Director Madamme Lagarde, see below, has Royal pretensions with such utter incompetence it makes FG look like postgrads!

        • Realist

          Both Hamiltonian and this Chicago plan give more control to government and they are both the same coin as nowadays Central banking.
          Only stupid cannot see how politicians manipulating ECB that started a long time ago to buy bonds straight.
          Who gave the power to ECB to be 1:200 geared? Who will pay ECB debt at the end?
          Kicking the can from one place to other is not solving any problems.

          Hamilton bank = Central bank = Chicago planned solution

          They all are not solving monopoly of money by state.
          They all not solving sovereign debt problem nor any future government debt.

          • bonbon

            The iconic case is the 1923 German Hyperinflation caused by the Versailles debt imposition after WWI by Britain and its stringers. There is now a Versailles II imposed on the entire Eurozone, and when Draghi follows mad Ben Bernanke (QEV now), hyperinflation is the only possible result. I think that is clear.

            But remember the British methods – in case of extreme insecurity, susceptibility to any idea increases, the Tavistock principle. The really insane aspect of this is to reject the only possible solution, then.

            Hamilton’s, who dealt with the seemingly impossible Independence War debts, methods were and are targeted against the British Empire, a precisely composed counter. For London School Economists to yell Keynsian, and the next minute Fisher-ian, shows the utter confusion of their ranks.

            What is missing or deliberately suppressed by insane monetarists of all stripes, shown best by the Triple Curve, is the massive reconstruction needed on a grand scale. For monetarists, battered and mesmerized by the hyperinflationary specter, the real economy is forgotten.
            Deal with the specter with Glass-Steagall, opening the door for huge programs ready to start. The IMF with its Troika will for sure try to suppress any effort to actually survive.

  2. Adam Byrne

    Subscribe.

  3. Mortgage Debt Deal CANNOT prevent ‘default disease’ from spreading

    I am in agreement of the pre-ambles to this article but I am in Total Disagreement with ‘the deal’ proposed at this juncture.

    The truth of reality is not reflected and the facts shown are selective in determining the proposed solution . It simply will Not Work and any time given to this will be a waste of time and money.

    The Elephant in the room is not the ‘mortgage debt’, rather it is the TIME we have left to return to normal living .

    It is assuming that the banks can sell to the borrowers more Time. This is untrue . The banks have NO Time to sell and the borrower should NOT shackle themselves believing that .

    Bank Deception must be stopped NOW.

    ‘The deal’ assumes that the collateral namely the home has an intrinsic value equal to or more than the value of the outstanding mortgage and that the title/ deeds will revert to the borrower without hindrance after twenty years. This is for Dreamers and Bottle Washers only. Irish Law will never legislate adequately to protect the borrower . This is Bog Manure .

    Cross generation bank financial commitments over twenty years within families is excessive , extreme and impossible ,in fact . ‘The Deal’ is another Bailout for Banks.

    Borrowers Beware .

    Intrinsically in this article there is an assumption of DENIAL of a Hard Landing .

    The apples must be allowed to fall to reach the ground because it is already detached from the tree .The opportunity to pick the apple has come to past .Its too late .

    It is socially economical to do nothing and allow the banks Pee in their pants and laugh out loud.

    The proposals do not disclose the dangers of Inflation arriving soon and the consequences of further interest rises and their Risks attached namely the banks never returning the title deeds to the borrower ever ever ever again.In twenty years time at least the same amount will be outstanding if not more.

    There are no proper adapted insurance risk covers available on the market to protect the borrower in this strange sponsorship.

    Default is the only answer first and last full stop.

    Refute the financial edifices and allow the magic of the subsequent markets to Destroy The Greedy Bankers .

    The economist Vincent de Gournay said : ‘ laissez faire , laissez passer ‘ ie let do , or let go .

    We must ask ourselves why would banks want to partner with a borrower at this stage of play . The answer is : it is their Problem and not yours . The borrower can walk away en masse and win all the chips in the Casino . And Why Not ?

    What is being proposed is liken to the original State Bank Guarantee given bt the late Brian Lenihan . We know what that did and we are stuffed as a result .

    The economy should service the social well being of the country . Lionel Jospin said : ‘Oui a’ l’economie de marche , non a’ soiete de marche ‘ ie ( yes to market economy , no to market society ).

    Vive La Vie ……Vive La Republic .

    • Adam Byrne

      Best comment you have made in years John. I am saving this one.

      In my opinion, David’s idea sounds good in theory but I just can’t see it working in practice for the reasons you point out – assuming the vision to instigate such a plan somehow materialized – which it will not – in fact CANNOT under the current incompetent and corrupt administration.

      So I think you are right that mass default is more feasible, although I don’t know how likely.

      Really, no one knows what is going to happen that this stage but whatever it will be ain’t going to be pretty. There are no easy solutions anymore.

    • Realist

      +1
      “Default is the only answer first and last full stop.”

      • Not realistic or possible, Realist. Default leads to a further contraction in money supply (deflation). And on and down it goes making it even more difficult for the remaining debt to be repaid…

        • paddythepig

          The contraction will occur regardless, it’s only a matter of taking the hit in one fell swoop, or spreading it out over time.

          • There is a difference the people want a life quickly so DEFAULT is paramount NOW

          • paddythepig

            What about the lives of those people you are going to default on?

          • Ask The Icelanders they have BALLS

          • paddythepig

            As I thought, you don’t care about their lives.

          • bonbon

            While some are getting all horsey, let’s look at what Iceland did. They refused the bailout, which hit the British pension funds. Now the way to deal with this is to say Inter-Alpha should pay and admit in public if they cannot. Since London put Iceland on the terrorism list, it is clear Inter-alpha dare not admit it is insolvent. So to the next suckers, Cowan and Enda. Likely with an upfront terrorism WTF.

            Brutal realpolitik as Mr. Blair called it at Chatham House, Royal Institute for International Affairs, leveraging Britain via the EU – with Dublin it’s offshore cats paw.

          • Realist

            Excellent question of course.

            Let me explain the problem of spreading it over time:
            1. You are locking recources (land and labour at least) to the unhealthy part of economy, so they cannot be used and bid up prices down for some other companies in other industry sectors
            2. Inflation is inevitable to save default – this means further redistribution of wealth, basically favouring first on money (government and banks) like now.
            3. Payment day will come anyway – and that day will be worse than one today, as more you prolong you destroy more wealth, you put more harm on children tomorrow. They will remember that and will not love you for such.

          • Realist

            Some comparison of Ireland and Iceland.
            Iceland’s government had no choice as Irish to be bailed out anyway (so I think they had no balls but no choice) :)

            http://mises.org/daily/6279/Ire-and-Ice-A-Tale-of-Two-PIIIGS

        • Realist

          Alternative as now, socialize the pain, kill the wealth creation machine who is giving employment and bloodline to economy. Taxing till the last remnant of proper capitalism dies and all become governmental owned and wealth destroyed ?

          We do not need to expand money, if money can be exchanged for goods.
          If we are to wake tomorrow with twice more money in our pocket what do you think will happen with goods in store ?

          Ttoday’s debt is not really repaid, it is accumulated more and more by government. e13 billion at least more in debt in 2013 ?

          Default releases resources (labour and land at least) to bid their prices down so more companies will come to employ such and create more wealth.
          Keeping such resources in banking and government business is not helping.

          Money contraction means less money in circulation and to spend, meaning demand for goods will be lower, so lower prices means you can afford more goods to buy.

          I only need salary of 1 euro if I can buy everything I need for 1 euro. Inflation is destroying and redistributing wealth and nothing more.

    • bonbon

      When the laws allow a massive “innovative” casino, and encourage it as with HSBC just now, only other laws help. That means re-instate Glass-Steagall. It keeps bankers honest. Laissez-faire does not even work on the autobahn.

      Flailing about like a stranded fish seems dramatic. The bankers like theirs grilled at the Brasserie.

      So never mind Jospin, Glass-Steagall is the way to go.

      Orientation stratégique Glass-Steagall contre la réforme bancaire

      • Realist

        How much debt in Ireland is GS related, figures, facts, links will help?
        I assume you do not count government promisse to pay state pension to people as sort of futures contract :)

        Ireland is mainly destroyed by simple credit expansion by central bank and fractional-reserve banking.
        Of course not to forget government debt and promisses (state pension money to be paid while does not exist).
        GS or no-GS will not prevent all these mortgages and bidding up of property prices.
        GS or no-GS will not prevent ECB buying government bonds or taking them as collateral from banks, is not it.

        So, please stop distracting us with small solutions for small problems.

        • bonbon

          For a concise introduction to Restoring American Credit System,

          Phase I Glass-Steagall Righting The Wrongs
          Phase II Determining Value Breaking Bad Habits
          Phase III Establishing a Credit Fund How it works
          Phase IV Funding The Public Debt Restoering The Economy

          Put aside monetarist leanings for a moment (a bad habit), and have a look at something the London School of Economics will never propound, what the IMF is utterly incapable of even imagining.

      • bonbon

        Please mention derivatives, the key to the entire mess, securitized mortgages, servicing London as an offshore “carribean” style casino.

        Glass-Steagall will happen, nothing else will stop the next Lehmann, Hypo… And nothing else will open the door to the massive reconstruction of the physical economy that urgently needs to be done.

        This is why GS alone is for monetarist flatlanders, The 3-point Plan with no step lost on any of the 3 simultaneous assaults on the problem is for the real world.

        This is difficult for the monetarist flatlanders gaping unblinking at financial indexes.

        The real difficulty here is for monetarists of all stripes to blink, notice how Adam Smith took them for suckers, admit the trick, and move on.

  4. 20 Years? You gotta be kidding!

    First, we live in times of Libor fraud, Bank of Ireland, the largest credit card operator in Ireland, rising interest rates 4% on credit cards one week before christmas, HSBC is allowed by Obama and Cameron to continue operations instead of smahsing the bank into the ground after it was clear that they were laundring drug cartel funds etc., and perhaps most important, we live in times of utter political incompetence.

    Technocrats took over political key positions, the EU gets the Nobel Peace Prize and is one of the largest weapons exporters on the planet, Merkel, The Troika and IMF are directly responsible for rising poverty levels in Greece, Spain and so on, in deed such poverty levels are poltically WANTED, yes, wanted!

    Today the new poverty report for Germany was released, and guess what the main reason for the high poverty rates in Germany are, extremely low wages.

    Any respectable economist who dares to make predictions for the next 20 years makes a fool of himself.

    The system is not working anymore, the downfall inveitable, what we witness is prolonged and a political deliberate proracted default of banks and entire states, banks are insolvent, states are insolvent, banks on the drip of taxpayers money infusion, and mark my words, come 2013, banks will demand MORE capital infusion from taxpayers, more bailouts!

    That’s as much as I can predict to happen up to 2013, and not 2033. Spain and Protiugal will come to the first page again soon, Greece as well and Italy may just be the straw that brakes the camels back come 2013.

  5. irishminx

    How can the debt swap be done for equity David, when the whole creation of money is debt based in the first place?

    Plus fractional reserve banking and securitisation employed by the banks is fraudulent.

    As far as I am concerned, between the above and the bail out, the banks have been paid for the mortgages anyway!

    What our Government and the banks are doing to the peoples of Eire is immoral and criminal. Worse, the courts are in collusion with them!

    All in the state of Eire is sick with greed & indifference. There is no humanity left in the Corporation that is Ireland!

    I still believe if all the peoples of Eire stopped paying their mortgages, it would bring the Irish State to it knees. Then and only then can we the people of Eire decide and direct our own future, a future that is heart based and equal for all.

    May I wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and peaceful Christmas and may 2013 be the catalyst for good.

    • Add McWilliams to that collusion. You can prove yourself David by exploring alternative. Start by reviewing this http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf

    • Grey Fox

      Well said Girl, well said!
      Nobody ever wants to listen until the horror arrives at their door, unfortunately more and more and more Irish people are and will learn the hard way while their “I’m alright Jack” neighbours look the other way, that is until it is their turn!
      Richie Boucher said it all this week, in a rare moment of honesty, Bank Of Ireland will follow debtor’s to infinity and debtor’s estate’s after they are dead! Bank Of Ireland has no duty of care to debtors, it’s primary and only care is for both it’s shareholders and the Bank itself! Mr Boucher may as well have been speaking for the entire financial sector, and you can take that to the Bank!
      How far do you think a Blanket guarantee would have got if Richie or his equivalent had made that statement in conjunction with the demand for rescue in 2008, in front of the People of Ireland!
      Bank’s, even at this late stage need to be treated like the social pariah’s, rotten, scurrilous, corrupt, fraudulent institutions they are, and replaced with any of the myriad of social alternatives which are out there, the Bank’s have gorged at the trough of public money and they are still not satisfied they want more, they want it all!
      Shame on every and all Politicians in Ireland today for not shouting from the rooftops that the Banks need to be cut loose, and demanding that no more money is paid over to them.
      Shame on the Judiciary in Ireland for their complicit role in the financial rape of Irish People for the benefit of Bank’s.
      While it is of no benefit to we the people now, there is some consolation that history will be very unkind to all concerned, and rightly so.
      I say that with 2016 coming upon us, lets make it not only a commemoration but a real, lawful, peaceful reinactment and banish ALL! the snakes from Ireland once and for all!
      Let’s restate or claim to a Sovereign, Democratic, Republic where all power is derived from the People and where the state exists for the benefit of the people and only the people.

    • paddythepig

      Since when do you speak for the people of “Eire”?

      • Grey Fox

        If that is directed at me, where did I say I speak for the People of Eire?
        I am one of the people of Eire and that gives me the authority to speak as I wish about the destruction of my Country.
        I do not normally respond to rising questions but in this case the question is especially stupid!

        • paddythepig

          The indentation in this block of comments is very clear, but if you want to take offence to a post that wasn’t directed at you, go for it.

          • Grey Fox

            Apologies “Paddy” if I am not adept in understanding the Indentation and for accusing you in error.
            Having studied the Indentations carefully you are correct, your “especially Stupid” question is I believe directed at the young lady above, whom I am aquainted with and somewhat familiar with her situation, if I am not mistaken T, and I can assure you Mr paddy she is well within her right, also as an Irish person, to say what she has said and I can also state that as I agree with her totally she therefore has spoken for me also, another Irish person, if you object, simply state that she doesn’t speak for you and leave it at that, instead of, as I already said, using a rising question, we get enough of that shit from our politicians and media already!

          • paddythepig

            It’s always interesting how some people assume the mantle of the the general public, in this case ” we the people of Eire”.

            Your second paragraph seems to agree with me that we all simply speak for ourselves.

            You overlook her assumption, because it seems you are sympathetic to her point of view. Yet if I was to make an diametrically opposing statement on behalf of ” we the people of Eire” would you be so sympathetic?

          • irishminx

            Grey Fox, you have me intrigued. Do I know you?

            paddythepig, my last comment on this segment is directed to you.

            In the time I pop in and out of David’s blog, I have not seem one move forward from you stance. Which I experience as sad. I own this fully.

            I am also very aware, that what arises in any body, is all about that body! NOT ME!

            I sincerely hope I am making myself quite clear.

            Go and examine your own conscience.
            It may help?!?

      • irishminx

        Because I am part of the peoples of Eire!
        That gives me rights as a sovereign of Eire.
        Go and mature into a responsible adult, because I am still standing waiting for you to do so! In the end, it is you who need to challenge you, not I. Le meas.

  6. If the people of Ireland boycott the new household tax, it will be a good start.

  7. Deco

    Unless there is a massive turnaround in the labour market, and unless it sucks in the people in negative equity (and unless it is sucks them in first), there is no way that the current mess will get cleaned up.

    Basically, it all comes down to the labour market. In particular, the participants will need to readjust to the available jobs. And secondly there will have to be restrictions introduce so as to ensure that there is no addition to the supply of labour. Basically, a country with high cost labour compared to it’s nearest neighbour, has to some how or other achieve a higher wage rate and a lower unemployment rate.

    It will not happen. In fact it is next to impossible.

    Therefore residential sector defaults are coming.

    • irishminx

      Residential default is here now!

      Economics is defunct. It belongs to the last century. The sooner we all realise this, the better.

      What is most important, is that we lead from our hearts. We are all being challenged on THE most important of scales, the issue now is, can we rise to this our most important challenge, the challenge to lead from the HEART?!?

      • Nonesense

        Heart leads nowhere we saw what happened to the Celts .

        What did the Vikings have …..Horns .

        • bonbon

          And what did Britain have – Adam Smith and his “moral sentiments”, to fool the suckers. But not all are fooled all the time, some are all the time.

        • irishminx

          John, I wouldn’t have expected any other comment from you.

          Take Mahatma Gandhi as an example………..

          Have a happy peaceful Christmas.

          • Mahatma Gandhi was seen as a spiritual leader not a politician .

            The old wars in India are deep rooted and more people died in these than the combined two WW1 and WW11 . Maharajah Duleep Singh was the Sigh Pope brought to England by Queen Victoria to quell the wars then and thus the beginning of Sigh culture in Europe .

            My great great grandfather and his wife ( John & Sarah , Gamekeepers ) are buried in next grave beside the family of the Singh in Elveden Hall where the Guinness family now live.

          • bonbon

            Ghandi’s mentor, Gangadhar Tilak, is the key independence leader of India. Tilak took a scientific approach, spoke at Oxford to an ovation after years in prison, and his Swaraj (self-rule) has very strong resonance here in Ireland.

            Tilak’s “The Arctic Home in the Vedas”, which I have read over and over again, shows the unique approach of this true scientific thinker. Anyone interested in astronomy of the ancients must at all costs get a copy of this breakthrough. Others have followed up with even more, but Tilak led the way.

          • bonbon

            Great link!!

            Do you think Tilak’s “The Orion” is there too?

        • A dozen Viking ships once sailed up to Fort William and took on one of the clans. In the end there just about enough Vikings to sail one ship home

          After hearing what happened to the Irish Brothers the Picts were not taking any crap, horns or no horns

          • bonbon

            The “Vikings” who attacked Ireland and Scotland – who were they? Well look at the Runes on the lions in front of the Venetian Doge’s palace to understand them. They were actually led by a mercenary from Baghdad, and their target was actually Charlemagne. Ireland and Scotland were razed as it was known the reforms by Charlemagne originated from Irish (Schotten) trained monks such as Alcuin. They were called Schotten because of Iona.

            A lot of the Vikings were actually Saxons who settled on Jutland, adopted the Norsemen ship design with dragon heads – they were the Taliban al-Qaeda of the day funded by the banks of the day – Venice. Same pattern now with Obamaosama’s support of Al-Qaeda.

            At that time the Celts had the same ship design with swan heads: Caesar also noted this at the battle of Quimper in 55BC where he said their ships could cross the great ocean, the Romans’ not.

  8. Pat Flannery

    Hi David:

    I actually specialized in selling bank-owned properties (known as REOs) in California before, during and after the worldwide property boom. I even gave regular seminars on the subject throughout the ‘80s, 90s and into the naughties. I used them to recruit salespeople for my real estate and mortgage business.

    It was a profitable niche market for me when everybody else was assuming that there are no foreclosures in a boom. When the bust came every tom-dick-and-harry became a “foreclosure specialist”.

    The central message of my seminars was that a certain proportion of any population fails to manage their finances properly. I was able to demonstrate that a study of the foreclosure phenomenon reveals a social science element as important as the economic element.

    I was encouraged in this belief by a book recommended to me by a great financial journalist named Don Bauder http://www.sandiegoreader.com/staff/don-bauder/ who has remained my friend and mentor throughout the years.

    The Book is called “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” published in 1841 by a Scottish journalist called Charles Mackay. It is as relevant today as in 1841.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds

    Perhaps what Ireland needs, in addition to economists like you and those in government, are a few psychologists specially trained in “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.

    Sadly I see from your final paragraphs that you are lighting the bedside candles, opening up your economic black bag and offering a relief without curing palliative known as “debt for equity swap” right after the Government doctors have bled the patient white.

    Time to send in the psychiatrists — for the doctors!

    • bonbon

      Mackay actually quotes a very famous example :

      According to legend, tulips (based on a Turkish word for turban), arrived in Western Europe about mid-16th century from Constantinople. They were brought into the Dutch Royal Gardens in 1593. By 1600, tulip stock was being planted in England, and, until 1634, tulips became more highly prized each year, until, according to Charles Mackay, in his authoritative book of 1852, Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds, by the mid-1630s, “it was deemed a proof of bad taste in any man of fortune to be without a collection of them. Many learned men, including Pompeius de Angelis, and the celebrated Lipsius of Leyden, the author of the treatise, “De Constantia,” were passionately fond of tulips. Soon, the exotic plants were all the rage among Dutch aristocrats, who not only purchased them for their beauty, but began to speculate on them.

      The craze for tulips, was however, not limited to the upper classes; rather, like today’s stock market madness, it soon overtook the middle class, and “merchants and shopkeepers, even of modest means, began to vie with each other in the rarity of these flowers and the preposterous prices they paid for them,” Mackay tells us, adding that, “In 1634, the rage among the Dutch to possess them was so great, that the ordinary industry of the country was so neglected, and the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade.”

      So it is with the Euro, houses, gizmo’s. And the Austrian School “Gold” mantra is trying to awaken this madness. Entire parties are bedazzled. Enda is after the Austerity Medal of Europe, probably in gold. He has competition there – Obama. Will brave Enda don the big gloves?

      Now this is all fun, but to hear a poster actually having applied this to hapless victims, makes me wonder?

      • Pat Flannery

        I saved many hundreds of families from foreclosure by convincing them to sell their homes at the best available market value at the time – prior to foreclosure in a “short sale”.

        If more Irish people embraced default as inevitable instead of accepting economic slavery the banks would be forced to accept “short sales” as they did in the U.S.

        The U.S. has almost completed the “short sale” process and can now forge ahead because its people are free to produce and spend again. Even the banks understand it. They now have new customers again!

        Try some positive thinking for a change. It seems to be severely lacking in Ireland. Oh woe is me.

  9. SLICKMICK

    Ray Mc Sharry has trouserd 250k in fees as a public interest bank director of in the past 4 years. Ditto Joe Walsh. LOL.
    Can anybody explain the logic in having the highest birth rate in the western world, an open door immigration policy aligned with chronic unemployment ? 70,000 school leavers hoping to enter a labour market with fewer retirees @ self employed white collar level and school/college leavers trying to compete with ready made experienced staff ,imported from across the globe is disastrous. 100,000 people on FAS schemes within 12 months !

  10. Eireannach

    No DMcW, your wrong when you say “(Irish property) will be worth more in 20 years time”.

    This is just wrong. All the talk of the rise of Asia, the world shortage of oil, natural gas and other resources, the rise and rise of free stuff and pirated stuff undermining the profits of businesses (but good for consumers) means that very few people will be taking out €300K mortgages in Ireland in 20 years time.

    They will just as likely be squatters in a post-oil industrially decaying dystopia, as so many sci-fi authors have presciently forecast, for the West at least.

    There are actually wild animals living in downtown Detroit today. Detroit is not ‘gonna make a comeback’.

    The industrial era is coming crashing down. Suburbs will be the slums of the future. Bicycles will be a massive growth industry. People will grow food closer to where they live around their towns. We already see this with farmer’s markets, this trend will continue.

    The hippies will be proved right. We’ll have bladerunner cities in Asia, and wild animals in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and probably Limerick by 2030.

    • bonbon

      Since you apparently take H.G. Wells’ “Shape of Things to Come etc”, recipe’s to heart, remember he was MI6 chief, writing for the suckers.

      Why play along?

    • Eireannach

      You may be right. But then it is the ECB’s problem. My concern is to get the real economy going now not tomorrow. So your points are well made a vaild.

      Best
      David

  11. DC

    FFS – why are we thinking so insular, are we disconnected from the real world of Debt – NO !!!

    Stop thinking Micro and relate to the Macro problem, otherwise you are conning – yes conning the public, as sure as the banks are conning the Govt.

    Some real figures

    Total credit market debt (TCMD) = 200 TRILLION DOLLARS.

    Growth in TCMD – 80 TRILLION TO 200 Trillion in the last 10 years. over 10% annually.

    The largest peacetime accumulation of debt (fast approaching the total debt after world war 2)

    Real Global GDP = Just OVER 3 %

    European Banks are more than 3 times more levered than american banks (after US bank recapping).

    No recapping has occured in the Euro Banks !!!!!

    Sovereign debt to GDP is unstainable in most if not all OECD countries.

    Euro banks are a bomb waiting to go off – yes even the most solid, stable german banks – if there really were any !!!

    private sector debt has been offloaded to the sovereign and will continue to do so.

    The options – inflate or default THERE IS NO FIX !!

    or maybe there is always WAR.

    The current monetary deflationary cycle cannot be continued indefinitely – ZIRP to infinity anyone ???

    The Fed – Ha!! Has any euro commentary really explained what is going on here? when will they run out of trees is the only question!

    The only real question is when? – how much time is left?
    Irrational optimism is the main weapon of the mainstream media.

    Where is the growth ?????

    This is not to mention the themonuclear financial pile called JAPAN.

    Wake up – we are interconnected – not discconnected.

    • bonbon

      First your numbers are out of date. Total derivative aggregate nominal debt is above $1.4 Quadrillon, most of that added after the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999-2000. The increase is not linear. Derivatives began in the modern era in 1972 after Nixon killed the Bretton Woods. The Inter-Alpha banking group, rarely mentioned, started the snowball melting at a bank near you.

      Second the solution – three simultaneous assaults : Re-instate Glass-Steagall, issue massive Hamiltonian credit, for huge Projects all on the table now. No one of these will work alone. It means people must adopt a concerted attack mode, from all 3 fronts all the time, drop the victim, passive observer seeking popularity.

      You see, this flies in the face of Tigers making hysterical phrases.

      • Realist

        Canada did not have Glass-Steagall and they did not suffer?

        As long as we have a central bank, it makes sense to impose tighter controls on banks in order to minimize the damage the central bank’s policies inflict.
        A better alternative is, of course, to have genuine free banking without the central bank.

        You also remember ban on alchohol in US, how it ended?
        I believe bans are not the proper way of sorting out things around the world.

      • bonbon

        Interesting, that note on Canada. I would like more info. It being a Crown Dominion, never was a problem for London. The USA was and is. The fight is there (as long as Canada accepts Crown diktats such as the ban on Artic development). Canada can choose to observe the Arctic develop or join in the new Northern Frontier. Then let’s discuss Glass-Steagall in Ontario and Quebec…

  12. Realist

    David,

    > Forget GDP, which measures output and focus on GNP, which measures income

    GDP – you learned well from my responses, excellent :)
    GNP is also failed concept. Excellent article well worth reading:
    http://library.mises.org/books/Oskar%20Morgenstern/Does%20GNP%20Measure%20Growth%20and%20Welfare.pdf

  13. gizzy

    The Banks are not fit for purpose now. That is why Bank Of Ireland raised rates. Pure desperation. They operate now soley in a small damageed economy with high bad debt levels. There is very little appetite to borrow and very few who would meet repayment criteria. Banks cannot cross sell without lending. They cannot build reserves to rebuild their businesses so will limp along for years, cutting costs except top salaries increasing fees and charges on the few viable customers they have left, paying barristers to obtain useless judgements or force many into insolvency. The Banks are not repossessing many houses not out of goodness of their hearts but they know they will drive property prices down another 20 to 30 % which affect their capital requirements under Basle 2 as their remaining security on good loans plummets in value.

    This needs a completely financial services and banking solution not just a mortgage debt one.

    • Grey Fox

      I have already had word from generally reliable sources that there is an impending, serious announcement due in the next couple of weeks from Ulster Bank, Loan book Selloff? Exit the Irish Market?
      Apparently RBS has been footing the wages bill in Ireland for some time and is no longer willing to do so.
      The air of desperation is rank, I had a call from the “Edinburgh Mortgage Centre” regarding the arrears on my loan! I asked the person at the other end, “what was the name on the outside of the building she was sitting in” Answer= RBS
      Watch this space, my money is on the germans taking over the loan books!

      • gizzy

        The Bsnk strategy was the two pillars ( can’t write that without laughing) the Ulster Bank and the Credit Unions.

        If Ulster Bank will go as is likely, the credit unions have arrears levels at almost 30% and cost income ratios approaching 85%.

        Without emotion who the f**k came up with that as a strategy.

      • bonbon

        Apparently someone is looking in the rear mirror. Who do you think Enda is bailing out? None other than the Inter-Alpha Group, which boasts RBS! Even a tiny modicum of homework would find that.

        No wonder the “airs” fool the suckers!

  14. molly

    The government just simply don’t have enough money to bail out the mortgage book there’s to much money involved.
    Another thing if you do deals with some people and you run out of funds and can’t help others is not going to be fair.
    I think we will limp along with this for some time ,but the way this country is heading,it seams that unless labour pulls the plug on this coalition the government will limp along as well.

    • gizzy

      Someone is going to have if we keep the same Bank Strategy because a lot of borrowers cannot repay, the security has dropped in value way below loan levels and refinancing is not available. So the three historic methods of clearing loans Repay Realise Security or Refinance are not there so only write down and write off left.

  15. First they came for the communists,
    and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a communist

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came

  16. JOHNNYD

    David your spot on, there will be no debt forgivness.
    If in 20 years time the properties are still worth nothing, then extend it by another 20 years, debt is an asset,keep it on the correct side of the balance sheet.
    Or how about inter-generational mortgages? If the kids don’t want to take over the remaining debt when the time comes then the banks get to keep the property.
    The simple reality is people signed contracts with the banks and part of that contract was that they would pay back the money.
    Calling the banks nasty names in a mob like fashion is just worrying.
    If people renage on their contracts then what do we seal deals with in the future? Will there be any credit of any sort, could you trust anybody?
    A contract is a contract you sign your name by it so you must abide by it
    This generation may just have written themselves off financially and if that happens to be the unfortunate truth then the most important thing we can do is in the famous words of Crosby, Stills and Nash “Teach our children well”, although history tells us that probably won’t happen either.

    • bonbon

      A very contorted mixup of facts and history. No mention of Glass-Steagall, yet Larry Summers is referenced (one of the chief dismantlers).

      The reference to Keynes is blatant misrepresentation. I’d like to hear his comment on Keynes General Theory being only applicable in a totalitarian state (preface 19236 in German – Keynes’ words).

      But this is the key paragraph :
      “As Hayek once recommended to Keynes, we instead need a tract for our times; one that responds to the new challenges posed by globalisation, climate change and information technology”.

      This is utter incompetence. It is evident Sachs (neoliberal shock therapist of Yeltsin’s Russia) is at it again.

      the only difference between therapy and torture is one is voluntary. I think Sachs would like to waterboard the economy.

      • Adam Byrne

        Haha interesting take Mr. bonbon.

        • cooldude

          I believe you are correct that Keynes was an avid statist and bordered on totalitarianism. He totally despised rentiers and savers and one of the key ingredients of his “Theory” was to destroy both. He hated private investors and even private property. His only interest was in STATE investment in practically everything. He would have approved of our little bankrupt state where the property market and the banks are both controlled by the state yet they seem to make an absolute bollo–ks of everything they touch. The government will never do a good job at running an economy. Crony capitalism with vested interests everywhere. Anyway the Keynesian endgame is approaching rapidly as this experiment with currency debasement enters its final act.

          • Realist

            Exactly.
            And this brings the interesting question how come totalitarians like bonbon can hate Keynes :)
            Also he puts all economists from all schools to the same basket and his tripple-curve on the other side.

            Let’s call bonbon’s economic school Tripple-Curve” as he never told us what school he represents :)

            And did you try to read Keynes book he became famous?
            A pile of crap nobody could understand, crazy.

          • bonbon

            Please read what Keynes himself wrote – only a “totalstaat”, in the German preface of the first edition, could pusrue Keynes’ Grand Theory. FDR was no Keynsean, not Austrian. That is the crux of the matter.

            Some even more wild-eyed make all kinds of claims against FD, the reason being he overturned the British School(s), and Dexter White at Bretton Woods firmly rejected every single Keynes intervention.

            We are dealing here with the true history of economics. Arthur Griffith was perfectly aware of that British School and published the best critique I have seen anywhere of it. Ireland is founded on this insight.

            So the “statist” labels are untruths, and even Hayek knew that – his target has always been Hamilton.

  17. bonbon

    As the IMF was mentioned above, let’s have a look at what it thinks about any kind of a “deal”. Enda and co. better have a look at this and realize who else occupies the Good Room – Mm Lagarde.

    Argentina Should Leave the IMF, Urge Europe to Break With the Euro

    Dec. 18, 2012 (LPAC)–IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, who a year ago characterized as “odious” any suggestion that Greece might embrace Argentina’s model of sovereign default and debt renegotiation, is now threatening to “censure” Argentina, and possibly expel it from the IMF, for allegedly issuing “faulty” growth and inflation statistics.

    In September, Lagarde told Argentina that if it didn’t show “immediate” improvement in its methodology of statistics gathering–this from the same agency that demanded in the 1980s that revenue from drug “cash crops” be included in nations’ official GDP statistics–she would be forced to issue it a “red card” penalty, as in soccer, for unacceptable performance on the field. Today, Lagarde handed to the IMF’s executive board her report on Argentina’s progress in meeting her demands, on which basis the board will decide on censure by late January.

    “Argentina isn’t a soccer game… it’s a sovereign nation, and it accepts no threats from the IMF,” said Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, speaking Sept. 25 in response to Lagarde’s idiotic threats.

    The Argentine government would be wise to now go further, and simply withdraw from the IMF altogether. Madame Lagarde claims that expulsion from the IMF would be devastating for Argentina because it would lose access to international credit markets. But Argentina has been excluded from those (predatory) markets since 2001, and as a result its economy has done just fine. Since 2003, Argentina has demonstrated extraordinary economic growth rates, strengthened its internal market and created millions of new jobs based on rejection of the IMF’s murderous austerity, which brought the nation to its knees in the 1990s and is now exterminating the populations of southern Europe.

    Such an Argentine move would be a continuation of a fine, historical tradition. From the moment that the IMF was founded 1944, Argentine President Juan Domingo Peron refused to join it. Membership only came in 1995, after Peron had been overthrown by a British orchestrated military coup d’etat that installed City of London agent Raul Prebisch as the Finance Minister.

    Argentina should also wield its moral authority to recommend that other countries follow it in exiting the IMF, and also urge the countries of Europe to similarly break from the deathgrip of the euro system before it’s too late. As Bueso leader Helga Zepp-LaRouche has stated simply: “Yes, there is life after the euro.”

    Regarding such economic policy matters, the Fernandez de Kirchner government just appointed as its new ambassador to the U.S., the economist Cecilia Nahom, who is said to be close to Deptuty Finance Minister Axel Kiciloff, a fierce defender of the government’s economic model against neo-liberalism. Nahon herself gave a speech last July about the international financial crisis, in which she slammed the supra-national austerity policies the Troika is imposing in Europe: “Political and economic sovereignty isn’t something that can be easily ceded without paying a price.” Europe is imposing austerity “as if this were the only solution to the crisis… [but] Spain and Italy show the gravity of what is happening, primarily in terms of the living conditions of the population, which finds no political answers form its leaders.”

    • Madam Christine Lagarde is a member of the Enarchy ie aluminae ENA ( Ecole Nationale Administrif )as is Trichet , DSK etc

      • bonbon

        A Satrapy of London. I know that. And this is what brave Enda faces in the Good (perfumed) Room.

        Luckily DSK is likely not there as the NY’s Finest put an end to his rampage.

        As Trichet means literally “cheater”, pointer out to me by someone from Aix-la-Chapelle where a 2 meter portrait of Napoleon and Josephine still to this day adorns the Rathouse. There the Karls medal was given to Mr. Blair!

  18. The word ‘ Restructuring ‘as used in this mornings newspapers when referring to Bank of Ireland and ‘The Deal’ as used in the above , all amount to the same ie deception of the borrower .

    • bonbon

      Being what they are, they might be tempted to do Glass-Steagall with a “restructuring” flak jacket. I would be then tempted to look hard at what exactly they are trying. We are at the point that any re-wording, nose powdering, is suspect pandering to the enemy.

      • Adam Byrne

        It’s totally out of your control anyway Mr. bonbon. You are powerless. Resistance is futile. All you can do is bend over to pick up the soap. You can’t beat them, you might as well join them – if you haven’t already.

        • bonbon

          “They” are not in control – the Triple Curve shows exactly what is happening.

          I hear George Soros’ dad’s idea, when he got him a job in Hungary in the ’30′s, forming his character as George said on tv, looting empty neighbor’s houses. Guess who he worked for?

          That “logic” that you seem to know well, is often espoused by the great “philanthropist”.

          • Adam Byrne

            Who was it? The Arrow Cross Party? Lived in Hungary myself for 5 years Mr. bonbon, de mostanaban nem mennek vissza mert mas az orszag a mi volt. Sokkal jobb volt a kilencven evek-ben, miutan kirugtak a commununistak, de mielott jottek a captilistak.

          • cooldude

            I dont agree that resistance is futile Adam. As you know I don’t see eye to eye with Monsieur Bonbon on everything but I recognize his sincerity in opposing the forces of elite banker control and their globalist agenda which is now being brought very much into the open. I personally have joined Direct Democracy and hope to help them in any useful way I can. We can’t just sit on our arses and watch these gobshites take over. Being defeatist is giving them control. Non aggressive non participation is the key. Don’t play their games and take full control of every aspect of your own life. This includes financial, physical and mental health as the agenda is to turn us into unfit, frightened little debt slaves so we will be thankful for their food tokens. Tell them to stick it where the sun will never shine. We have to try and take back control off these elite wankers.

          • bonbon

            If you know Hungary, then you should know that Soros credits his father with avoiding the death camps, by working for the invader at 14-17. More than 400,000 were sent to those camps, and he looted the empty houses on demand. In doing this he became the “philanthropist” of today, destroying nations on demand. He was picked up as useful. In a broadcast on WNET/Thirteen TV on April 15, 1993 Soros recalled those experiences that formed his beastly identity: “When the Germans came in, he said, ‘This is a lawless occupation. The normal rules don’t apply. You have to forget how you behave in a normal society. This is an abnormal situation.’ And he arranged for all of us to have false papers, everybody had a different arrangement. I was adopted by an official of the minister of agriculture, whose job was to take over Jewish properties, so I actually went with him and we took possession of these large estates. That was my identity. So it’s a strange, very strange life. I was 14 years old at the time.”
            Masquerade, Dancing Around Death in Nazi Occupied Hungary, Tivador Soros, Arcade Publications, New York, 2001.

          • Adam Byrne

            I believe you Mr. bonbon. I guess he did what he had to to survive. Who knows what any of us would have done in the same (or similar) position?

            Regarding philanthropy, I recall my first ex-wife (Hungarian) got a large grant from his foundation back in the 90s to forward her studies, or a particular project. She also got some from the Rubik foundation. This is not relevant information to your points but just something that came to my mind.

            cooldude, I was being somewhat facetious with Mr. bonbon there. He does make some good points. I hope you can make some change with Direct Democracy. I won’t be joining though. I’ll plough my own furrow thank you very much. I’m in full control of my own life, more that most but quite a large degree.

          • Adam Byrne

            ‘by’ quite a large degree I mean…

  19. bonbon

    Departing IMF economist blasts fund for eurozone ‘failure’; Lagarde is ‘tainted’

    London (CNN) – A senior economist at the institution spearheading the bailouts of three eurozone countries has lambasted its lack of leadership and said its first female chief is not fit for the job.

    In a letter obtained exclusively by CNN and addressed to Shakour Shaalan, dean of the executive board of the International Monetary Fund, 20-year veteran Peter Doyle says he is “ashamed to have had any association with the Fund at all.”

  20. bonbon

    Enda, no austerity here, the Good Room is having a Tea Party!

    The IMF’s Obscene $350,000 Christmas Bash

    Fresh Cups!

  21. george

    At this stage will be better off by electing a new Government, that would give the People A new Deal “à la” F.D. Roosevelt, that would establish a State own Bank, and will pull out of the euro, to start afresh with our own currency; and will proceed with debt forgiveness , and NO co ownership of family homes by the rotten Private Sector Banks, that only want to perpetuate usury.
    .
    Of course that is contrary to the interest of the elites in the Public and Private Sector, including most of the Political Class, that at the moment are helping each other, to maintain their privileges.
    .
    Very well paid charlatans, pretending to be concerned, that are unable to do anything worthwhile for the good of Society, except for their cosmetic posturing in the media.
    .
    The visionary words of J.F.K.:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8HTr-F-FVM

  22. redriversix

    CUSTOMER SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

    In the event of the World ending today…please contact your Bank to arrange alternative payment methods.

    Any missed payments may effect your credit rating.

    Thank you

    • gizzy

      Like that, how’re you

      • redriversix

        Morning Gizzy

        I am good today Thanks

        up early.drinking tea & smoking cigarettes….really gotta quit smoking…!

        Still trying to assist people with financial challenges , although the new challenge I have come across lately is unopened post,haven’t seen that in a while.

        I understand why they don’t open it , but it sure makes negotiations hard when people haven’t responded to Banks.
        Also noticed lately a huge increase in financial problems in the Farming Sector which I Hadn’t come across before.
        Some have had receivers appointed and these Companies are from The U.K and are really difficult to engage with.

        The Dublin restaurant and Licensed trade is going to have a very Tough new year as a couple of Large Banks are going to appoint receivers to a lot of large operations.

        Their is also a huge problem with revenue developing as business are trying to use vat payments to keep themselves afloat as Banks curtail credit.

        Anyway we’ll motor on….

        Hope you are well Gizzy..? have a great Christmas and remember..”I was fed up because I had no shoes….then I met a man with no feet”!!!!

        Have a great day

        Barry
        redriversix8@gmail.com

        • gizzy

          Same to you Barry. Just advised a businessman on a debt restructure on brink of high court. Bank agreed 70% write down. It was that or get nothing but a worthless judgement.

          Vat and rates big issue next year. Bur for now enjoy the Christmas.

          Regards

          Mike

        • molly

          Business is in major trouble and when your faced with folding and no dole or trying to keep going and using the vat money to keep your head above water it just this an on going struggle .
          Revenue is going to get harder on business because business needs to grow its way out of this and with less money to go around,how many business are just going to go under or be put under by the revenue.
          2012 was by far my worst year can things get worse,I believe they can and will out lay for business is going to Increase in there everyday running and pricing needs to go up but can’t to help business.
          The days for government spin and lies will surly be seen for what they are fairy tails .

  23. Beaver

    Its a bad idea because it involves the ECB lending Irish banks money to take part in the biggest property speculation scheme in Europe. The banks would be speculating on house price rises with borrwed money. The cost of money over 20 years has to be recouped as well. European money would be beter spent on infrastructure. Why should irish gambling debts be converted into another longer term gamble with european taxpayers money?

    • bonbon

      Without splitting the banks that is exactly what will happen. Glass-Steagall is essential before any debt “deal” can even be talked about. Iceland’s banks even after their good move against them, have begun exactly such a bubble on prices. Glass-Steagall is being discussed in the parliament because of this disgusting development.

      • Adam Byrne

        I guess this doesn’t go far enough for you Mr. Bonbon?

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20803548

        Do you think they will improve on it?

        • bonbon

          Haldane, a Glass-Steagall advocate, was ousted, and the Canadian Goldman-Sachs operative was put in the BoE. He is an outspoken opponent of Glass-Steagall, even this month.

          So expect no real banking seperation – Vickers etc will not work, just like Dodd-Frank or Basel III.

        • bonbon

          See below the electrifying report on the latest British Banking Commission. It has intensified since the dramatic breakthrough on July 4.

          Electric Ring-fencing could keep the thieves honest. It seems if a bank hits the fence it will be cleaved. Looks like a British Glass-Steagall!

      • Realist

        Iceland went the way they went only because other countries did not want to bail them out!!!
        And they benefited for it in recent years.
        But it looks they are coming back to their old ways :)

        http://mises.org/daily/6279/Ire-and-Ice-A-Tale-of-Two-PIIIGS

        • bonbon

          Iceland only by a hair went the right way. The parliament voted to bailout the British funds, and the President intervened for a referendum with a huge majority against. So the parliament behavd just like congress and the dail. Now the Icelandic banks are at it again. They have not been split, yet.

  24. Adam Byrne

    People can take their flags and national days and sovereignty and passports and stick them all where the sun doesn’t shine. I don’t recognize any of them and never will.

    I like helping my friends (including foreign friends here and Irish friends overseas), family and community first, anything else is a bonus. If everyone else did the same we’d be fine.

    • Realist

      +1
      Self-responsibility first. Everything else is bonus.

      I just cannot grasp anymore hearing about government should do this or that for us.

      Borders, states and governments are useless constructs that does not bring prosperity to mankind.
      They are just making large prisons.

      Heard yesterday a very nice thought on war on drugs: if government cannot prevent drugs from being used in prisons that are guarded 24×7, how they plan to control it across the country (big prison but nobody call it that way yet).
      The same is with every other aspect.

      • cooldude

        This government sponsored war on drugs is another joke. They should rename it the war on some drugs which the government don’t like. Why should the government decide which drugs you can or cannot indulge in with your own money. I have noticed that every single case of gun rage in the US has involved youths on anti depressant drugs. None of them, to my knowledge, involved so called “illegal” drugs such as dope. It would seem that the legal drugs have far worse side effects than the illegal ones. They should simply halt this ridiculous war but the profits are huge and you can be sure they are getting their share.

        • Realist

          Exactly.
          And it makes GDP looks better.
          Let just call it economic growth and recovery.
          It is Christmas time so let’s stay positive :)

        • Adam Byrne

          Yeah, I fully agree.

        • bonbon

          Gun rage involves in evry single case, including Germany, and even the Norwegian lunatic, computer games.What blew the whistle at Columbine was the extreme lethality, far beyond the police. This is the signature of computer games. These are a legalized menticide, in essence not different to drugs, but with major consequences.

          George Soros’s global drug legalization program from the richest “philanthropist”, trained under Eichmann for exactly this purpose is easily exposed – Dope Inc. is now in second printing. HSBC is all there.

    • bonbon

      Actually every single drug legalization move is from Soros affiliates such as Lindesmith center.

      HSBC thought it could launder cartel drug money, it got a slap on the wrist. Ivanov, Russia’s anti drug czar has got it exactly right – this drig money is propping up the central banks right now, $500 billion+ per year. Afghan heroin accounts for $100 billion/year. Drugs are really a financial phenomenon, always have been. The 2 British attacks on China were opium related. HSBC is of this stock, or rather bulb.

      These drugs are a crime against the essence of humanity, the mind, and must be eradicated. Glass-Steagall would be a nice way to slice this off. Have no trance about this.

    • bonbon

      Have a look at the new film, Lincoln it is fantastic stuff. Lincoln loved to visit the Inns and tell stories of the Revolutionary War, his favorite being this :

      “Shortly after the peace was signed,” the story began, “the Revolutionary War hero Ethan Allen had occasion to visit England, where he was subjected to considerable teasing banter. The British would make fun of the Americans and General Washington in particular, and, one day, they got a picture of General Washington and displayed it prominently in the outhouse so Mr. Allen could not miss it. When he made no mention of it, they finally asked him if he had seen the Washington picture. Mr. Allen said that he thought it was a very appropriate place for an Englishman to keep it. ”Why?” they asked. “For,” said Mr. Allen, ” there is nothing that will make an Englishman shit so quick as the sight of General Washington!”

      Just in case some one thinks government of the people, for the people, and for the people will vanish from this earth, go to the film – this story was not edited out!

  25. Grey Fox

    Further to my earlier post re Ulster Bank, I have had some intriguing discussion with ordinary Irish People who are exercising their right to take High Court Action where they say their rights have been impinged on and they are suffering undue distress as a result. Several Irish people have now experienced the same treatment/reaction from Ulster Bank when they attempt to serve Plenary Summonses at Ulster Bank’s Group Headquarters on Georges Quay in Dublin.
    In all cases, when the main reception attendee is identified clearly as an Ulster Bank employee and then served with an originating summons, the individual serving the summons is chased out of the building by the receptionist who is attempting to “shove” the summons back into the hand of the server, when this is unsuccessful, the summons is then past to the uniformed security guard who has on all occasions pursued the summons server down the public street outside shouting and attempting to return the summons, when this fails, on one occasion the summons was left on the wall outside by the bus stop and on another occasion it was tossed into a bin at the bus stop.
    Is this the type of reaction one would expect from a pillar of the community like Ulster Bank?
    Are they really that arrogant that they give two fingers to the law of the land and people’s rights?
    A number of the people who served Ulster Bank have also now made Criminal Complaints to An Garda Siochana I believe for, harassment and assault, I congratulate them.
    I have personally filed against Ulster Bank and they had not replied to my summons until I sent a 21 day warning letter, which was responded to by way of a letter which claimed no knowledge of the Originating Summons, but alas for them I served them by registered post and our Post Office are quite diligent and provide indisputable Trace proof of delivery!

    This attitude for Ulster Bank would normally indicate a level of fear and misunderstanding of the Legal System but, surely this cannot be the case, as we all know that Ulster bank are very familiar with the legal process and are represented by a myriad of firms of Solicitors who would be more than happy to step up to the plate (for a fee), ah!, but could it be that I have hit the nail on the head -Fee!
    I have already had information from a generally reliable source that RBS is bankrolling the Irish Operation, could it be that they are not willing to spend money on Legal Fee’s, could it be that the are not worried about judgement’s awarded by default against Ulster Bank because shortly, Ulster Bank will not exist in Ireland?
    Either way, it is very strange behaviour indeed!

  26. bonbon

    Britain again moves towards Glass-Steagall. This is the essential step before any kind of debt deal and reconstruction can happen. July 4 marked the first British move with the FT editorial, now continuing.

    British Banking Commission Calls for Electrified Ring Fence

    Dec. 21 (EIRNS)–A report from the British Parliament’s Banking Standards Commission calls for an electrified financial ring-fence, where the shock will be total bank separation for those banks which violate it.
    The move is contrary to the wishes of anti Glass-Steagall Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who wanted the Commission not to reopen the debate about the structure of banks. The government has drafted legislation that waters down even further the recommendations of Sir John Vickers’ Independent Commission on Banking (ICB).
    Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative Member of Parliament who chairs the parliamentary commission, is quoted by the London {Guardian} saying that “The proposals, as they stand, fall well short of what is required. Over time, the ring-fence will be tested and challenged by the banks. Politicians, too, could succumb to lobbying from banks and others, adding to pressure to put holes in the ring-fence.
    “For the ring-fence to succeed, banks need to be discouraged from gaming the rules. All history tells us they will do this unless incentivized not to. That’s why we recommend electrification. The legislation needs to set out a reserve power for separation; the regulator needs to know he can use it.”
    Tyrie’s proposal was evidently backed by Labor Party shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, who said: “If the letter and spirit of the Vickers proposals are not delivered, and we do not see cultural change in our banks, full separation will be necessary. The commission is clearly right to say the jury is still out and to demand a reserve power for full separation of the banks.”
    Tyrie proposes that the new Prudential Regulation Authority being set up inside the Bank of England have a mandate to monitor the banks, to see whether they are violating the ring-fence.
    The commission says banks should be allowed to sell “simple derivatives” to businesses, but should be subject to conditions or could become “the thin end of a wedge which could undermine the ring-fence.”
    Tyrie’s proposals received the support of the Federation of Small Businesses.
    Ring-fencing, and potentially the additional safeguards of “electrification” and possible structural separation, would allow the investment arm of a bank to be sold or wound down, and would mean a safer and more secure banking sector, said John Walker, national chairman of the Financial Stability Board, as quoted in today’s {Daily Telegraph}.
    An editorial in the {Financial Times}, a paper which has openly called for Glass-Steagall for months now, says that the commission’s recommendations are sensible, but asserts that “a simpler approach–and the one the {FT} favors–would be to split the banks cleanly as a first step rather than a back stop. While this might not avoid the need for continuing policing, it would solve the cultural problem. A split may make it less likely that banks need to be rescued with taxpayers money.”
    The fact that the {Financial Times} has reiterated its support for full Glass-Steagall separation for the first time since this past Summer, is one clear indication that some sane factions in the City of London are anticipating a major financial blowout sooner rather than later.
    Tyrie also received firm support from Ruth Sunderland, a very vocal Glass-Steagall advocate who writes for thisismoney.co.uk. She compares Tyrie to the famous Ferdinand Pecora, writing that he has made top bankers squirm, but that today it is the turn of Chancellor George Osborne to squirm as the Commission’s report dissects the inadequacies of his preferred banking remedy, the ring-fencing cooked up by Sir John Vickers.

    • StephenKenny

      As you know bonbon, any such rules would have to be created so as not to have any significant impact on the financial services sector in the UK.

      In spite of the increasingly weird media PR campaigns, the UK is essentially a mono-crop economy, with the crop being financial services – that’s a quote from the editor of the FT.

      All this chattering is no more than the fiscal cliff histrionics in the US – for nothing more than public enjoyment and excitement.

      You will notice that with the exception of one or two very junior people, all the prosecutions around the LIBOR rigging and HSBC drug money laundering are occurring outside the UK.

      Wall Street and the City of London have one last hurrah, taking down the private savings and pensions funds, and sending government deficits to the stars, before they collapse in a wheezing, bankrupt, heap. When this occurs, within a four or five years, you may be very sure that no one could have seen it coming, it was only “the market’s” fault, and everything had been done to ensure that it would never happen again.

      There will be no effective regulation in the US or UK simply because no one in those countries actually wants it, they just want to be widely seen and heard, talking about it.

      • bonbon

        No one said it would be easy – this is a real fight, something all the Tigers in the world are rather shy of. It is really irrelevant if all the Tigers in the world “do not want it”.

        It is occurring right inside the Electric Fence, and some are getting pushed onto the ropes. Things are so extremely rotten, that tiny minority who do know the state of affairs know the UK cannot possibly survive without this.

        The raid on Deutsche Bank 2 times in a fortnight adds to the LIBOR, HSBC affairs. All of the scandals occurred in London branches of international banks – MFG, JPMC, LIBOR. HSBC is the iconic drug laundering bank from the get-go – its activities are global. DB is the Co2 point bank, I wonder where the certificates are traded? Prosecutions, slaps on the wrist, are occurring outside the electric fence, the real fight is inside.

        The FT editorial on July 4, and now again for simple banking separation reflects the situation dramatically.

        Of course these decisions will be made in London, not Dublin or even D.C. It is the shape of things to come.

  27. bonbon

    Prosecutors in Frankfurt raided Deutsche Bank headquarters for the second time in a fortnight. This time the focus is on suspicions of witness collusion, in connection with a scandal that could cost the bank as much as 1.5 billion euros. The raid took place on Wednesday, with fewer police than in the first raid the week before, then 500!, but the dark cloud of suspicion that hangs over Deutsche Bank is getting bigger.

    This is the shape of things to come for the banks!

  28. bonbon

    HSBC caught drug-money laundering, (imagine shipping $7 billion of Mexican cartel cocaine dollars to NY!), the LIBOR scandal and now Deutsche Bank caught in CO2 fraud. After the 2007 financial heart attack desperate liquidity foraging brought the forced-march green renewables swindle linked to this Co2 fraud.

    Again the link between green economics, drugs, and the catastrophic banking system. Add to this the housing bubble to get perspective.

    • bonbon

      None of the major papers have that said McEntee committed suicide because he felt under pressure after the public criticism at budget cuts!

      Shane McEntee RIP Psalm 42: 1-3, 5, 8

      • Grey Fox

        My heart goes out to this man’s family, it is a shameful state of affairs when any person arrives at the realization that suicide is the only option open to them!
        That said, hundreds and hundreds of Irish people have faced this same situation without their stories being told either at the time or indeed anytime, this is one of the greatest travesties the previous government and this current government must take responsibility for,instead they simply take the opportunity to blame joe public and social media for commenting about there abuse of power and targeting of the venerable as the reason for this terrible tragedy, no human life is measurable by any amount of money no matter how great.
        Mr McEntee, rest his soul, had every opportunity to speak out about how he really felt and had a duty to represent the people of Meath East as they instructed him to, if the level of criticism was so great in his constituency against the budget cuts, he had a duty of care to act accordingly and not in his or the party whip’s interest.
        Shane McEntee RIP

  29. philipc

    The writing is on the wall. The banks will be the new landlords, why would they ‘lose money’ if they don’t have to. The banks are going after the buy-to-let houses first. Most people in Ireland will not have any sympathy for someone losing an investment property, and the government has let lose the dogs of the bank…basically go after buy-to lets and we’ll leave the owner occupied house alone to a degree for now.
    http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-law-to-bring-surge-in-seizures-of-buytolet-properties-3333203.html
    Having a 2nd house repossessed will not lose as much votes as evicting families. http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/banks-offer-mortgage-interest-cut-to-owners-who-give-up-their-homes-3323191.html
    The banks will let some of the houses continue, to collect rent or flog a few off to rid of the debt and charge the previous owners the remainder. It all depends on the region….ie in Dublin they might turn a quick sale or look to the long term and make a profit.
    Come Summer time a lot of people will be struggling with increased property taxes there is nowhere to run or hide with this new property tax, tour wages and bank account are not safe. In the UK you get 2 warning notices….then the bailiffs. The buy-to-let repossessions will drive the prices down further and cause more of an oversupply to the market so the banks will be our new landlords. Welcome to the Republic of the Bank of Ireland/AIB.
    I’m worried about a mass default on mortgages…everyone should pay their bills, moral hazard has it’s place but what happens when 30-50% of all the mortgage holders as David says turn around for socio-economic or psychological reasons decide to ‘keep down with the Jones’ and not pay their mortgage….there could be a run on the banks, Government would be forced to look at this issue head on. Rough times ahead, sad. If interest rates go up God help us. This disease of ‘Affluenza’ is costing us and our next generation.

  30. David took a couple of knocks for writing this article and has been accused of being on the side of the banks

    His recent articles suggest however that he cares more about society than the banks

    I suppose this is seen as a lack of consistency

    • bonbon

      We need urgently, functioning banks, I think that is what’s driving the theme. But this can only happen if they are split or as London’s FT prefers Electric Fenced.

      Then the “Mittelstand” will have a chance of getting credit for reconstruction. This current blockage is very upsetting to economists, as Glass-Steagall is essentially political, involves public credit from a banking system very unlike today’s HSBC, DB, Barclays. Some priivate banks that are essentially honest are also needed to play an important part. But in a functioning environment.

  31. Here is an example of the difference between pseudo sciences like Ecconomics and hard Engineering based disciplines such as computer programming

    Question – Best C++ Ide for Unix / Linux?

    Answer -

    “closed as not constructive. As it currently stands, this question is not a good fit for our Q&A format. We expect answers to be supported by facts, references, or specific expertise, but this question will likely solicit debate, arguments, polling, or extended discussion.”

    It’s nice to predict with 100% accuracy the consequnces of ones actions.

    • bonbon

      Strange composition there – Economics Science, and Engineering.

      Economics can be scientific if one avoids statistical flatlander stuff imported from “computer science” an oxymoron if there ever was one.

      That’s the crux, drop information theory, and go for Riemannian manifolds. Neuman’s “computer science” is incompetent – it is an imposition, arbitrarily, of Euclidean geometry in a Riemannian universe.

      Machines are predictable, but the halting problem not, as you may know. So not even flatlander automatons can capture reality (Gödel).

      Economics must and forecasting is not prediction (a fantasy of I Robot). Forecasting is very difficult, most avoid it and 99.9% have been proven utterly false. How does a flatlander handle the obvious principle that the future determines present action?

      So the very effort to forecast based on past statistics is doomed to failure.

    • bonbon

      Of course software engineering, a tough discipline, has its uses as the Curiosity Mars explorer wonderfully proves. Economics is something much more critical to our survival, and a machine advance warning system on Mars as part of SDE, Strategic Defense of the Earth, as proposed by Russia, has enormous economic implications.

  32. [...] whether you will have enough at the end of the month to pay it. … View original post here: David McWilliams » Mortgage debt deal can prevent 'default disease … ← Don't Despair — Get Advice on Repairing Your Credit [...]

  33. bonbon

    Tsipras of Greece’s Syriza Party : “The Argentine model upsets neo-liberal hegemony internationally”.

    Dec. 23 (LPAC)–During a visit to Argentina, Alexis Tsipras, the leader of Greece’s Syriza party, was interviewed by the pro-government daily {Tiempo Argentino}, in which he blasted the criminal austerity being imposed across Europe by the speculative funds; questioned the future of the euro system itself and suggested that a new, unspecified “monetary architecture in the continent” might be in order; and praised the Argentine example of breaking with “neo liberal hegemony internationally.” Excerpts follow:

    “The majority of the governments of Europe behave as if they were employees of the banks, as if, rather than having been elected by their people, they had been elected by Goldman Sachs or other speculative funds in the international market…

    “We are in an economic world war, and at this
    point the most advanced trench is Greece.”

    {Tiempo Argentino} recalled that last September, in a parliamentary discussion with Greece’s Economics Minister, Tsipras had stated: “I wish we had done as Argentina did.” In the interview, Tsipras added: “Keep in mind that the example of Argentina upsets the world, because it breaks with neo-liberal hegemony internationally…

    “Our currency is the euro… That takes away an instrument that could be a monetary policy of growth. That’s why we have to closely study the process of the single currency, because this is a crisis that is not only happening in our country, but in all the nations of the south of Europe… So we have to see how, jointly, the countries can collaborate to have a new monetary architecture in the continent. The shock is going to be great, and we have to be prepared to deal with it. But the single currency can also be an advantage, because Greece cannot be abandoned to its fate…

    “The continuation of the policy of austerity in Europe creates dangers internationally… The policies of the IMF and the EU are not going to get us out of this situation, but rather they are going to worsen it.”

  34. bonbon

    An extremely nasty article by Donal Donovan, who is a former deputy director of the IMF and a member of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, and Ranique Mottes, a former sr. economist of the Central Bank of Ireland, saying we feel humiliated, but the idea that Ireland ever was — or will be — economically autonomous is delusional.

    These represent the neo-liberal international hegemony, that Tsipras refers to above.

  35. bonbon

    GFC II on the way? Another AIG? Add this to British Electric Fencing the banks to see something is terribly amiss.

    Visions of Financial Collapse Trump Sugar Plums

    Dec. 24 (EIRNS)–Two Christmas Eve articles– although neither directly mentions Glass-Steagall–reflect that the larger reality beyond the fiscal cliff is still shining through the Christmas haze: an imminent hyperinflationary collapse.

    “Another Global Financial Crisis May Be On the Way” is by American DeAnne Julius, a recognized establishment economist who has worked for government offices including the CIA, and an “A-list” blogger for the Financial Times. Beyond all the Eurozone crisis and war dangers, Julius says, “the single greatest risk is that one of these events or some other throws the world into another global financial crisis, a ‘GFC II.’”

    Three reasons she gives include the fact that, not only have we not recovered from “GFC” I, but all the “fiscal and monetary” tricks that were used to ameliorate the crisis have been “maxed out” (i.e. we’re verging on hyperinflation, without saying it). She has worse than no solution, suggesting the creation of a financial hit squad centered in the G 20, but fretting that, since it is Russia’s turn at the head, that is just another reason to worry.

    The New York Times also divulges that it knows something is terribly amiss. Today it runs an editorial entitled, “Could AIG Happen Again?” which laments the glaring shortcomings of Dodd-Frank, leaving the regulators to draft the regulations, which “they have completed just one-third of the rules required by the law.” While they blame in part “an unrepentant financial industry that has fought against regulation at every turn, on Capitol Hill or in the courts,” they ultimately place the blame “with the Obama administration and policy makers in Europe and Asia, too.”

    Contrasting today’s failures with those of the FDR administration (again without saying Glass-Steagall), they conclude that, “It is imperative that policy makers speed up the rules to help correct critical vulnerabilities in the financial system.”

  36. eoincunningham

    Interesting stuff.

  37. eoincunningham

    test 3

  38. [...] Mortgage debt deal can prevent … – David Mcwilliams – “we can actually figure out a way of manipulating the economic cycle to the betterment of society.” Here is where David presents the “only” solution to the … [...]

  39. [...] David McWilliams » Mortgage debt deal can prevent … – “we can actually figure out a way of manipulating the economic cycle to the betterment of society.” Here is where David presents the “only” solution to the … [...]

  40. [...] David McWilliams » Mortgage debt deal can prevent … – Click on David’s name to get back to the home page at any time. These icons link to the main sections of the site, and you’ll find them in the same position on … [...]

  41. [...] David McWilliams » Mortgage debt deal can prevent … – “we can actually figure out a way of manipulating the economic cycle to the betterment of society.” Here is where David presents the “only” solution to the … [...]

You must log in to post a comment.
× Hide comments