October 1, 2012

The numbers that continue to damn us

Posted in Sunday Business Post · 282 comments ·
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Maybe it’s the voyeur in me? I know it’s not for everyone, but the Comptroller and Auditor General’s report last week makes essential reading for anyone trying to get a handle on what is going on in this country.
While many in the media seem convulsed with the split in the cabinet, two much more important pieces of news emerged last week which tell us about where our economy is going. Neither portrait is a pretty one.

The first is the data on emigration, which continues relentlessly. Official figures show that the number of people who emigrated from Ireland soared to 87,000 over the last year. More than half of those who left the country in the 12 months up to April were Irish, and almost 36,000 were under the age of 25.

Talk to anyone in business in the country, and they will tell you that demand is seizing up. People are just not spending, not because they don’t want to, but because they don’t have it.

I spoke last week to someone in the advertising business and she told me that, coming back from the summer, she was hoping against hope for some uptick . . . but no, there was no sign. In fact, she said, it was getting worse.
The rise in emigration tells us that the pool of potential taxpayers and workers is shrinking while, at the same time, the amount of debt this country is carrying is increasing all the time.

The debt figures detailed in the Comptroller and Auditor General’s release are quite, quite startling. We all knew that there was a massive problem, but to see it written down so starkly shocks even those of us who had a fair idea how bad it was in the first place.

Look at the chart. It reveals that the general government debt stood at approximately €169 billion at the end of 2011. The significant upward trend in debt since 2007 is evident.

The ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) is a standard sustainability measure applied for the purposes of comparison across the EU. The debt as a proportion of GDP rose from 25 per cent in 2007 to 106.4 per cent in 2011.

The deterioration in our government debt is continuing apace.
But with the economy stuttering at best and shrinking on the most meaningful measures, we have to find more money from less to keep the debt ratio stable.

A simple rule of thumb is that, to keep the debt ratio stable once the debt has gone above 100 per cent of your income, the rate of interest has to be lower than the growth rate of the economy. But our rate of interest is at least four times the growth rate of the economy.

In other words, the debt ratio is exploding.

We know that when a country has too much debt it can do one of three things. First, it can try to pay it if possible. But the numbers in Ireland mean it is impossible to pay all this debt. We simply can’t grow our way out of this.
The second thing you do, if you can’t pay, you inflate it away. But we can’t do that either because – even if there were an all-knowing Central Bank that could keep the rate of inflation just right, to deflate the debt without anyone noticing it – we don’t have it. We don’t have our own Central Bank, so the unique inflation route is out of the question.

What’s left is the third solution: we don’t pay it, not because we don’t want to, but because we can’t. This final option, absent any alternative, is looking increasingly likely.

Armed with this observation, let’s drill down into this mess to see some of the more horrific “hiddens” in the numbers and how this could affect you. One thing that jumps off the page at you is the fact that public sector pensions won’t be paid, because they can’t be.

According to the report: “Accrued pension entitlements of public servants are a significant liability of the state. At end December 2009, a total of €116 billion had accrued in respect of occupational pensions payable to public servants.
Those liabilities represent the estimated present value of the cash payments that fall to be met over the next 60 years in respect of pensions earned at December 31, 2009.”

This is the product of the pay-as-you-go system which is government public sector pensions. The problem is not just that the state doesn’t have the money, but that the public sector pension bill is rising at a ridiculous rate.
This time last year, the same report estimated the public pension liability at €108 billion at the end of 2008. In only 12 months, the estimated liability has increased by a whopping €8 billion.

Just to put this increase in the estimated public sector’s pension bill in context, the total income tax take last year was €13.7 billion. So the increase in the public sector pension bill alone amounted to 61 per cent of the total income tax take. Consider that for a moment.

It is pretty clear that, with numbers like this, the decision by the Germans and their friends on bank debt are driven not just by the bank debt problems, but also by their fear that all debts in Europe will be mutualised and they will have to pay. It is not hard to understand their position.

But they now have a choice. Countries like Ireland will have to default, renegotiate, repudiate, whatever you like to call it. We can grow out of this hole; we can’t inflate, so we won’t be able to pay.

The way that these events normally play out is that there comes a tax rate where capital simply leaves the country, because the middle classes panic as they see more and more of their income and wealth expropriated, either to pay for other people’s pensions or for debt.

This was why, in the 1990s, Brazilians and Argentinians were the largest buyers of real estate in Florida. They did this to protect their wealth. We saw this in the Ireland of the 1980s. It is always the same. Capital flees until the event happens – the default, in this case – and then it comes back.

The major news last week was this: Ireland is just unusual. In most countries, first the capital flees the sinking ship, followed by the people. In Ireland, the people flee first, as is already happening, followed by the capital. This is about to happen.

If you want to stay ahead of the game and know what is really happening in the Irish and global economy, Economic insights with David McWilliams is a new eight-week course enrolling now.


  1. Adam Byrne

    Subscribe.

  2. MIT

    Hi David,

    In your last sentence you state: “This is about to happen”.

    May I be very cheeky and ask of you what timescales we are looking at? Next year perhaps?

    Thank you, Mit

    • Joe R

      A D McWilliams hero, Paul Krugman’s predicted the following lot last May with a timescale of months to for it all to play out, 4a is the only part that seems to be happening or have happened -

      http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/eurodammerung-2/

      So much for economic forecasting!

      • bonbon

        Here is a very ironic exposee of Krugman’s Cargo Cult economics.

        http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/1998/lar_krugman_2542.html
        The Melanesians likely did not in reality really believe in the Cargo-Cult, promoted by Margaret Mead of the British Monarchies Hospitaller Order, but a lot of well suited modern D.C and Paris experts do.

        A question for future anthropologists to settle.

        Note here, in 1998, ‘The “Euro,” which will come soon to be filed under such hateful rubrics as “the French disease,” was chiefly the work of France’s President François Mitterrand, a matter of fact recently documented in significant detail, first hand, by Germany’s Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Deutsche Einheit: Sonderedition aus den Akten des Bundeskanzleramtes 1989-1990 (München: R. Oldenbourg Verlag, 1998).’

        Europe has indeed caught a disease, and now its demented promoters are trying to blame Kohl!

      • Joe R

        Regarding L LaRouche – from Wikipedia, and well referenced;

        “LaRouche organized the network as a series of news services and magazines, which commentators say was done to gain access to government officials under press cover.[18] The publications included Executive Intelligence Review, founded in 1974 and known for its conspiracy theories, alleging that Queen Elizabeth II is the head of an international drug-smuggling cartel, and that the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing was part of a British attempt to take over the United States.[19]”

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyndon_LaRouche#CITEREFRausch2003

        And if you want more here is p.84-95 of Conspiracy Theories in American History: An Encyclopedia, which features Lyndon LaRouche and his followers.

        http://books.google.com.br/books?id=kV7j8tUq0rcC&pg=PA84&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

        ( by Rausch, John David (2003), “Executive Intelligence Review”, in Knight, Peter, Conspiracy Theories in American History: An Encyclopedia, Volume 2, ABC-CLIO, p. 245, ISBN 978-1-57607-812-9 )

      • bonbon

        Margaret Mead, the Queen’s very own witch (literal) promoted that Melanesian fiction. Yet Krugman either does not realize or is simply on the wrong track.

        Cargo Cult Economics, with Nobel prize to boot, is very funny when you read the expose.

        Why does the British Monarchy decorate such characters with strange Orders? It is a bit ridiculous.

      • bonbon

        We can discuss the drug industry if you wish, but the best reference of how the banks are addicted to drugs is this. I highly recommend it.

        http://www.amazon.com/Dope-Inc-Britains-Opium-Against/dp/1615772847

        I particularly like the book cover, a syringe on the Union Jack. Very telling indeed. This book drove Sir Henry Kissinger completely crazy!

  3. GJG

    Hi David

    Thanks for the insightful article.

    Your last few articles have drawn together alot of points about the socio-demographic problems that are both a result of, and a cause of Ireland’s position.

    With all these people leaving its keeping the unemployment figures from rising. Its also killing the economy because a 25 year old that leaves today is a source of productivity and revenue that the state looses out on for 40 years. – bar some type of remittance system developing like in somalia.

    I think the fact that the young are relatively mobile has also acted as a pressure valve, as those without debt leave, and those with debt are trapped into servicing it.
    neither group acts politically.

    You are right to draw the contrast between the flight of capital and the flight of human capital (not the nicest term for our children)

    So far this recession is dragging into its fifth year soon? Its been a long slow painful grind. Given the black hole of pensions you highlight and the fact that the debt burden is ever growing, this grind does not seem to have an end in sight. – I wonder how much psychological damage this process is doing? Years and years of misery both past and ahead. – Would have a big bust like Iceland maybe have been a quicker if more painful at the time option?

    Just some thoughts

  4. Joe R

    The Brazilians have been buying in Orlando in large numbers for a while now, they have been buying off Irish ‘investors’ who are bailing, amongst others. I’m not sure if it is about protecting wealth though.

  5. Direland

    David – I think the capital is long gone – at least that owned by mobile and savvy Citizens – our Banks are totally proppped up by ECB money – another reason why they want to extract as much as possible from us.
    There is , in my opinion , a curious but simple phenomenon at play here regarding emigration. Whilst Young potentially productive Irish people are leaving , thier places are being taken by equally young productive Eastern Europeans who are quite happy to work for less because the Euros they send home have several times the purchasing power they have here.The young Easterners are not spending thier money here – they double up on accomodation and live frugally.There is something close to Euro 1 Billion leaving our Economy annually which , when you take the multiplier effect into consideration , represents a huge loss to our domestic economy.The Politicians do not really care anyway because they are ok for the next five years and they just hope “something” will happen globally to solve thier re-election problem in time for the Elections of 2016/7.Emigration as far as they are concerned is just “normal” and there are no street protests as the Irish do not do this kind of thing unlike the Greeks or Spanish – maybe it’s all the rain we experience ?

    • Ronan Duffy

      The reason there are no street protests is because the protected public service sector hasn’t been hit yet. Private sector workers either have no free time or are afraid to protest. Watch this space for when the unions get the brothers out – on government time. It’s coming

    • Adam Byrne

      The politicians could’t give a toss about anyone but themselves. Not the slightest concern do they have.

      • hibernian56

        If you were guaranteed a FULL PENSION after only 3 years would your modus operandi be “Party, Preservation, Pension”.

        Our “democracy” is simply a ridiculous system whereby a school teacher is reinvented as a statesman and then rewarded for taking the flack to keep the status quo.

        Its all intertwined, “law” (politically elected judges), law enforcement (GRA kickbacks), Media (RTE TV “licence” paying for €1M salaries, e.g. the talentless Ryan Tubridy is related to who=google), Regulation (Energy regulator for example inflating energy costs to consumer to protect ESB / BG), HSE (An utter joke) etc etc etc.

        You get the picture. A huge feeding trough with a smaller amount of peasants producing fodder ever week.

        Nothing short of a complete reset / banishment will sort this mess.

    • The globalists call it population replacement or simply “divide and conquer”.

      Sad sorry state we’re in.

      Romantic Ireland is dead and gone it’s with O’Leary in Australia, Canada etc.

  6. rebean

    I found this in todays independent. It makes you wonder really what planet our Govt are on.

    “two German magazines reported at the weekend that Greece would receive the next payment despite missing its targets because euro zone governments were too afraid of the “domino effect” if Athens were forced out of the currency area.”

    • bonbon

      Numbers, numbers, trends and statistics. How quick DMcW is to dismiss the impending collapse of the coalition. Instead of a passive default we will burn the bondholders – Glass-Steagall. Not hip, “trendy”, but inevitable and not “in the numbers”.

    • Deco

      The Greeks have it sussed. The ponzi scheme that is the bond market must be propped up at all costs.

      • Tony Brogan

        bond market is the biggest bubble of all.
        financial mayhem when it pops.

      • bonbon

        Greek Youth Unemployment Highest in Eurozone

        Oct. 1 (EIRNS)–Youth unemployment in Greece has reached the highest anywhere in the Eurozone, at 55.4%, which is even higher than Spain’s 52.9% according to Eurostat. Overall unemployment in Greece reached 24.4%, only second to Spain with 25.1%.
        Unemployment across the 17 euro area countries remained at its record high of 11.4% in August, the highest since records began being kept in 1995. For all of Europe, there are some 18,196,000 unemployed, a massive increase of 2,144,000 in the last 12 months. Greece’s unemployment rate rose from 17.2% to 24.4% during that time. The unemployment rate is higher in the Eurozone than the average among the 27 states of the European Union.
        Workers in the Athens’ tram, electric railway and metro unions today said they were determined to take dynamic and escalating strike action by holding rolling 48-hour strikes, in order to avert the latest package of austerity measures announced by the government. The presidents of their three unions held a joint meeting during which they agreed that the only way to avert these “catastrophic measures” would be for all trade union organizations to agree on joint action, calling on the General Confederation of Employees of Greece (GSEE) to coordinate efforts. The workers of the state power company have made similar calls, including for 48-hour rolling strike.

      • bonbon

        We have it sussed, we have a tradition, SF, Arthur Griffith, that many simply do not have in such a readily accessible form. We know that burning the bondholders is inevitable, and it is inevitable that SF will be in the majority. FG and LP are sowing their own downfall.

        As they become more desperate, they resort to all kinds of tricks. I suppose they have nothing else to cling to.

        Glass-Steagall is inevitable.

  7. bonbon

    Is Stiglitz on the Kilkenomics speaker list?

    NOBEL prize-winning economist Professor Joseph Stiglitz called for Ireland to be given a break on its crippling bank debts and said it was “very wrong” that they had been “forced” on the country in the first place.
    His comments to the Irish Independent came after a Dublin speech where he railed against the EU‘s austerity drive and insisted Europe must radically change if the financial crisis was to be ease.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nobel-prize-economist-joseph-stiglitz-urges-deal-on-our-bank-debt-3244673.html

    • Realist

      Stiglitz is pure Keynesian.
      He thinks that spending more, or even better, government spending more is helping economy.
      But we spent so many trillions in the last few years, US and Europe, and is it looking better?
      They are saying we are this bad because we are not spending enough, but when it will be enough!!!!!!
      He is crazy and like Krugman are worst enemies as they posion too many young economists with wrong lessons.
      Does this mean every person on this world should be spending more because that will bring us out of recession.
      But from where that money is coming from????

      • bonbon

        The question was on the speaker roster. Stiglitz could add some very interesting points.

        Krugman is a Cargo-Cult economist.

        It would be very interesting to hear his vies on Glass-Steagall, and post casino Recovery. FDR was neither British Keynesian nor Austrian School Fisherite – ho ignored both and showed what the American System of Political Economics, Hamilton’s, is all about. There is a great possibility of changing the rules of the game now.

      • bonbon

        Monetaristic limits to thinking are very evident in the questions. They spring from an obsession with 2 of the 3 curves in the Triple Curve, the financial ones :

        http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2002/2903trip_curve.html

        Looking at the physical economic curve 3, measured in strictly in non-monetartist terms, the collapse into the abyss of the very basis for existence is urgently in need of direct intervention, a huge Recovery Program. When this is activated, a political issue, the other curves will be no problem. This was the insight FDR earlier called New Deal, RFC, TVA… This is the insight of JFK’s NASA, and his intended NAWAPA. This is the China 3 Gorges Dam.

        • Realist

          Looks like a lot of mumbo-jumbo in that article.
          It is more of a political speach and I cannot really understand the logic in it.
          Does anybody understand what bonbon is talking in here?

          • bonbon

            I admit it is difficult for monetarists of all stripes, especially of those crossed stripes. It is something, metaphor, totally misunderstood today, and that is the root of the problem of paralytic bewilderment. It is as Shakespeare, master of metaphor, is forgotten!

            Political-economics can never be separated, but universal banks must be. The separation of physical economy from monetary casino has produced that rocketing double curve, and that plunging economic curve. The metaphor of the Triple Curve both points to the serious weakness today in conceptualizing, and the utter evil of the system, at the same time to the action needed to reverse and recover. All in one graphic.
            That is why we need to seperate investment banking from commercial (those 2 upper curves) BUT immediately start a major recovery (Curve 3). One without the other is fatal.

          • Realist

            So, from that little article about triple curve we are suppose to believe what you are telling us will help the economy?

            You in essence want more control to the state or central bankers and not less.
            You see little issues but does not understand economics and what real problem is.

  8. dwalsh

    Tony
    (Continuing our discussion from previoue article)

    The debt tsunami was not created by politicians; it was created by irresponsible private financial institutions. You should know this.

    The role played by politicians was to deregulate private debt creation and give carte blanche to banks etc.

    The destruction of the global economy was only indirectly caused by governments — in believing the bankers would behave responsibly in a deregulated market.

    They didn’t; they still don’t; and they never will.

    The expansion of the money supply and sovereign debt today is not being managed by governments or politicians; it is being managed by privately controlled central banks.

    The liquidity creating this sovereign debt is not going to governments or to the real economy; but to feed speculation in the banks. You should know this too.

    The global economic crisis is not a political crisis in its origin. But its solution must be political.

    As I said before many times; until our political elites (and general population) wake up and realised the insanity they have been hoodwinked into by the global financial elites, there will be no resolution. We will continue to be frogmarched into a global corporate hegemony dystopia.

    When they do wake up the first thing they will have to do is shut down the financial markets and put the lot into bankruptcy liquidation; and take control of the banking and monetary system.

    If this happens humanity will have a good chance of moving to the next level of civilisation. If it doesnt, we are looking at a descent into a dark age.

    • Tony Brogan

      I answered this in the previous theme:)

    • bonbon

      Right. Governments were sold the economic theory of von Hayek, by consultants, professors, pundits, and became bewildered, incompetent and ended up betraying the nation for a government of the people (1%), for the people (1%), by the people (1%). The swindle, Mandeville’s, is a psychological one as von Hayek himself clearly said in letters and lectures at the London School of Economics – the greatest method ever invented. It is indeed truly perverse, a legend in sheer evil.
      That an economy can ooze, emerge, emmanate, in a spontaneous, but unknowable way from metal or capital, Arthus Griffith identified in 1905 as downright impossible. To leave a national economy to itself in a crisis is suicidal.

      • bonbon

        Friedrich List, quoted at length by Arthur Griffith in the United Irishmen :

        Smith’s negation of productive forces leads to his ignoring “the causes of its rise and fall in a nation.” Smith therefore also pays no attention to “the true effect of the different component parts of productive power.” Without any differentiation, Smith calls the “existing stock of matter” by the “general name of capital,” and to this he attributes a downright “omnipotent effect.” Smith refuses to consider, that “the productiveness of this capital depends upon the means afforded by nature, and upon the intellectual and social conditions of a nation.”

        A downright “omnipotent effect” is attributed to money. Draghi and Bernanke really do think, speak and behave like gods, oracle’s. The “shock and awe” of QE is wearing off however.
        It is clear Adam Smith’s recipe is for the destruction of nations.

      • Tony Brogan

        The crisis is because of the constant interference form such as yourself who seems to think they know what everyone should spend their money on and what they should or should not do.
        The ultiment in central planning spouts from your lips.You propagate the evil.
        You would have unlimited credit issued by government for grandiose projects and have us end up like China with unihabited cities and roads and bridges to nowhere.

        • Realist

          Exactly.
          He should read Animal Farm to realize what is he recommending as a solution :)
          He thinks that people are stupid and does not know what to buy so government will take money from them (in taxes) and spend them wisely.
          We have seen how that money was spent wisely, so thanks a lot.

          The other problem is that values are subjective, so no way anybody else except me will know what I want to buy and do with my money, or any other resource.
          This is why it is not possible to aggregate all economic information into GDP and be smart central banker.
          How on earth they can know anything, if values are subjective and cannot be expressed in numbers.

        • bonbon

          I am responsible for the crisis now. Hmm. Smacks of paranoia there.

          Now it is time to abandon von Hayek, Adam Smith’s boy. He is something from the cold war, with all that silly stuff. The only socialism now it the bailout of banks, y elected governments who have betrayed their sworn duty to the common good, not private property. We have now a government fully devoted to your von Hayek ideals.

          • Tony Brogan

            No paranoia.
            Governments are not a country mile close to hayek.
            You are bright enough to know what you are sugesting so that puts you on the wrong side of the tracks as far as I am concerned.
            You spout unadulterated crap. You dissemble, obscure and deceive.
            Therefore you are a major problem to the solution.

          • bonbon

            FG is doing the Hayek thing exactly. Leaving the economy to itself to spontaneously emerge, ooze from whatever state they leave it in. After all, as Hayek and Adam Smith wrote, we do not have the mental capacity to understand this complexity. So trust in unknowable forces – there is nothing to fear. That’s FG, unfortunately. That is considered normal among many in leading positions in Europe. That is the Austrian School, London School of Economics standard fare.

            There is a difference between the “suggestion” of an economic priesthood, and those who must apply that new recipe. Of course the priesthood will quickly say it was not done properly.
            We had the famous case of Abba Lerner (Keynesian), Prof of Economics at Colombia Uni., blurt out that if Germany had accepted austerity, Hitler would not have been necessary! The Chicago School’s Pinochet likewise would not have been necessary if Chile had simply accepted their Austrian suggestions.

            Time to think through what the recipe implies for politicians and people. No more silence on the actual reality of political economics.

          • Realist

            > FG is doing the Hayek thing exactly.
            > Leaving the economy to itself to spontaneously emerge,
            > ooze from whatever state they leave it in.

            Hayek is nothing to do with the current politicians and economists in power.
            FG is just continuing on the same footpaths as previous 20 governments, increasing public spenditures and debt.
            As I can see they still torture people for taxes and so on.
            No changes from Austrian economists point of view at all.
            This economy is becoming more of socialistic, centrally driven economy, than free market economy without government influence.

          • bonbon

            Leaving the economy to its own devices in the face of crisis is Hayek’s small gov’mint recipe. Exactly what FG is doing. The utter bewilderment of politicians and pundits alike all smack of this incredibly insane wild-eyed belief in economics oozing from capital. Preciusely Adam Smith’s tribe as Friedrich List put it.

      • Realist

        Bonbon,
        Nonsense like usual from bonbon.
        Austrian school of economy (of which Hayek is part too) is one to declare war on Socialistic economy and Keynesian economy.
        The first one mainly died on 1991.
        The second is still here for 50 or so years now, but will die sooner or later as we speak.
        For information Austrian school of economy was never mainstream, so stop putting nonsense bonbon.

        • bonbon

          Straw man, that Keynes. His famous tract, could only be published with a German preface that only a total-state could impliment his wonderful ideas. The irony there is only a Pinochet could implement the Chicago School wonderful meanderings. Irving Fisher brought the Austrian School to Chicago, and George Shultz brough it to Chile.

          Much better to follow FDR who defeated fascism, ignored both Keynes and Fisher and went with Hamlton’s way for the New Deal, RFC, Glass-Steagall and Bretton-Woods.

          That is real economics for human beings, especially the 80% forgotten.

          We need a New Deal after splitting banks and simply writing synthetic debt off. The physical economy needs massive urgent intervention, a concept monetarists have great difficulty with.

          • Realist

            Austrian School of Economy is nothing to do with Chicago School of Economy!!!!!!
            Stop inventing things Bonbon.
            Austrian School is not equal Chicago School:
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_school_of_economics
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School

            Irving Fisher was never in Austrian School of Economy. He influenced Milton Friedman from Chicago school.

          • bonbon

            See the paper from the IMF posted a blog ago on the Chicago School Revival of Irving Fisher. He personally and factually brought the Austrian School to Chicago. Fisher was ignored as Keynes was by FDR in the 1930′s. Milton Friedman, who Bernanke said would agree with QE3, of Chicago Boys fame with George Schultz, actually sprung from the Austrian School stable. By what gestation, not even a Darwinian could understand. The breeding is awesome.

          • Realist

            Nonsense like usual Bonbon.

            But understandable from LaRouche’s marxist standpoint.
            LaRouche soldier, as you are, cannot know for better, but anyway LaRouche is unknown old guy who changed the colours from marxist to who knows what nowadays.
            He even was for Gold standard, unsure why you are not :)

      • Realist

        Hayek objected to any centralised economy and he was correct.
        The government planning or any other central body will never have enough economic information to drive the economy.
        Drivers of economy are private companies and consumers, us.
        We all decide what should be produced by buying good products. We favour Apple’s and Samsung’s and Tesco’s.

        What you are saying is that people are stupid and your centralised government is smart.
        How nice of you really!!!!!

        • bonbon

          What you are afraid to say is what von Hayek himself said at the London School of Economics. His entire concept is Bernard Mandeville’s. Now I can say it for you if you need help there, but I leave the floor open for reasonable comment.

        • bonbon

          von Hayek and Adam Smith, both said we ordinary mortals do not have the capacity to either direct nature or understand economic complexity. I can give the exact quotes if you like. That is a damning condescension from the shining light is’nt it?

          Pursue this if you dare.

          Their entire strategy is to let elites run the show. exactly what is happening now. The results are visible to all here!

      • Tony Brogan

        I disagree so completely that I think you are a raving nutter with a completely propagandized viewpoint, as brainwashed by LaRouche.

        • bonbon

          In the flow of things, one may find others who disagree.

          Present an argument on von Hayek’s own published letters and lectures. I’m afraid we are seeing a repeat of (Keynesian) Abba Lerner’s famous admission in 1971, from an ostensible opposite point of view.

          von Hayek’s interview from 1983 is also available – we can discuss. In fact as head of the Mont Pelerin Society and its main promoter, the Pan-Europe think-tank of Kalergi-Coudenhove gave us the EU we see right now. This is the old monarchist arm in tango with the British limb.
          I believe many here are not amused with this EU?

          • Realist

            Give arguments please, not political speeches please.

            What Hayek exactly said in 1983 that you do not like?

          • bonbon

            See his mention of Chile for example in that interview from 1983. It is the best exposee of the Mont Pelerin Society founder (a British Subject) that I know. The Q&A goes over the entire spectrum.

          • bonbon

            E.g. :
            Murawiec: In one of your recent texts, you approvingly quote an author according to whom “political anarchy was the precondition for the take-off of capitalism.” What kind of anarchy do you want now?
            Von Hayek: The anarchy that [former Chancellor ] Ludwig Ehrhard established in Germany when he lifted price controls. Abolish price and quantity controls.

          • Realist

            So, what is wrong with that again?

            He clearly stated what he thought about it.
            For you it is anarchy giving the rights to people that the state took.
            He clearly said the state took so much power, power to create money, to control prices, export, import, anything.

            He was correct so many times than I cannot understand what you have against Hayek.

  9. wills

    So what we are face with is the debris from a predatory capitalism run amok.

    What is particularly concerning in my opinion is that it appears that the controllers of this predatory capitalism have landed themselves in a maze and are to quote Hobsbawm ‘they are all like a blind man trying to get out of a maze by tapping the walls with different kinds of sticks in the hope of finding the way out.’

    The thing is the controllers running thier system what the article describes above appear to be losing their marbles in the maze of their absurd economic model which seems to be falling apart at a rate of knots.

    There is a strong possibility that there is NO engine of growth over the horizon that they are banking on to bail their bond issuance hail mary out!!

    Then what do they do??

    Go to war?

    Spoof up a war in Iran?

    • bonbon

      They want Obama to go to war, again. Russia knows this and Putin said Rome destroyed Carthage, salted it over, and Europe has also this history. Libya was supposed to open the door to massive war on Syria, and Iran. Delayed. The 9/11-2 murder of the US diplomat in Benghazi has major blowback – it could topple Obama because of his coverup over the ignored warnings. Susan Rice (UN ambas.) is in a real hot seat after claiming it was “spontaneous”. That trick is used in economics too.

    • Tony Brogan

      Not capitalism, Wills, but statism and corperatism run amok based on rampant credit.

    • Hi Wills,

      I supect we will see that Iran business play out next year – the Israelis pretty much said this at the UN last weekend.

      Best

      David

  10. bonbon

    Catalan Separatist Vote Scheduled for November 25

    Oct. 1 (LPAC)–Artur Mas, the president of Spain’s Catalonia region, today signed a decree calling for regional elections on Nov. 25, including a referendum on Catalan “sovereignty.” He told the press that recent attempts to intimidate people against proceeding with the referendum would fail. The state “cannot use weapons” to stop a sovereignty process if it is backed by a broad majority, he said, adding: “The world is watching Spain.”
    Mas made it clear that this initiative conforms precisely to Britain’s fascist {Europe of the Regions} policy: an independent Catalonia would not quit the EU, he stressed: “it is nowhere written” that that should happen. He also said that people should not believe promises of those who say they will stop the budget cuts. “That doesn’t depend on us. We are inside the EU, the Eurozone and the Spanish state, which is obligated to meet a series of targets.”

    • Deco

      Yes, the irony of it all.

      If they break free, they will still be stuck with the bill.

      Only they will be getting it from further away.

      These people have little grasp of the reality that contains them.

      • bonbon

        The idea is to break all Europe into happy “bioregional” remnats of former nation-states – the Pan Europe of the Mont Pelerin Society. Notice how the Catalan Mas has not the slightest intention of burning bondholders. It is not too difficult to ask – who benefits?

  11. Deco

    If we threatehn to leave the EU, then this will force the cat amongst the pigeons with respect to this entire scheme of debt sharing, socialism for bankers, etc…

    At the root of the problem – the failure to allow debt default, and a ridiculous interst regime that is subsidising financial asset speculation.

    • Deco

      We are in a political structure that we need to quit.

      It all sounds like Deja Vu, all over again.

    • bonbon

      Maybe as DMcW might say, Ireland should leave the “good room”. Rumors are that Enda is clearing his desk in that room now…

      • Deco

        Ireland might be in the “good room” but it is more a cell than a room.

        Of course Greece is in the bad corner because it cannot even make an effort to fit in the Potemkin cell that is “the good room”. A prisoner to lobbying and our own stupid pride.

  12. NeilW

    Be careful with pensions.

    The total amount of ‘public sector pension burden’ (or any pension for that matter) is an actuarial figure based on the longevity of the population. It is a total capital sum.

    Unfortunately that is a stupid way of doing things, because pensions are always a current production distribution problem.

    So what you need to find out is what the annual spend on pensions will be, which of course has to be covered by taxation or excess savings so that there is real output for the pensions to buy.

    That’s the key number – what is the pension bill in relation to the GDP of the country. How much are those not producing entitled to from those who are making things.

    • I think that was clear. If we take the rate of spend and integrate over the time interval indicated above then the over-all result is arrived at. Then the recent increase in the full integral as the time interval ‘slides’ shows that at the end of the time interval the rate of change is positive, indicating an increasing rate of payment per year at that point in time. Granted the integral is a big scary number and the rate of payment is smaller, but that smaller rate is still, to my mind, a big scary number in and of itself.

    • Joe R

      Sorry the overinflated overpaid civil service produces something? What would that be exactly?

      Plus GDP is flatlining and the pension figure is increasing rapidly. It is very simple.

      The public service pension figure are based on heightened levels of income from the past that government and that they no longer have. I.e. this extra income was derived from debt in the form of stamp duty and taxes on debt, not earnings. In simpler terms the base of the calculcation is the lie and the accounting game you outline is but another way of obscuring this. Not only this, a lot of this former income is appearing now as private bad debt in the economy so the goverment are now borrowing to cover this double expenditure.

      There is only one one real honest approach – and it is the same type of advice that you would give to a regular private individual in a complicated deb situaiont. Simplify your deb,t match cash income wth expenditure and FFS stop confusing yourself.

      My line would be – approportion government pensions to a fixed percentage of government taxes. That would be clear and fair on everyone.

      Clear and fair doesn’t happen though.

      • Joe R

        Sorry readers – there are a lot of typos there.

        *The public service pension figure are based on heightened levels of income from the past that government had ( 2002-2008 ) and that they no longer have.

        *and it is the same type of advice that you would give to a regular private individual in a complicated debt situation. Simplify your debt match….

  13. JACKW

    All of this matters not a hill of beans. Food, Water and Security are the 3 big issues of the next 12 months. Food prices are going to rise significantly in the next year driven by speculation and climate change. Water scarcity is only down the road driven by inefficient infrastructure and surging demand. Mortgage defaults and a rise in homelessness will impact that third aspect of the real crisis to face us.

    We’re concentrating too much on the politics and debt issues and not on the realities. Most people couldn’t survive a wet week without low cost, imported and subsidised food. We should have a national movement that encourages everyone to grow food in their back garden or apartment window box or patio. Pick ten items from your fridge and see how many are made in Ireland.

    Instead of concentrating on the ill conceived GATHERING and wooing of technology industries who will eventually always follow the lowest cost factor, we need to focus on the fundamentals, with the emphasis on conservation, resource management and education. Think of the amount of real, long term jobs that could be produced in the efficient use and management of the wonderful resources that this country has to offer.

    In the big picture, FOOD, WATER, SECURITY and the social and educational issues that surround them are what we need to address, everything else are merely ones and zeros on a computer screen.

    • mediator

      +1 Good Post

      • Bamboo

        Good Point,
        How do you see the “amount of real, long term jobs that could be produced in the efficient use and management of the wonderful resources”?

        • JACKW

          Thanks you for your comments.

          I don’t have all the answers, but together we have the answers. It’s about community, joined up thinking, holistic and systems thinking, the will of people to change and our successive governments to adhere to a ‘citizens plan’ to future proof our economy and country.

          It’s my personal opinion that we need ‘visionary people’ as a ‘citizens council’ who truly have the good of the country at heart. In public life at the moment I could probably, at a stretch, single out three people who meet that standard. There are thousands more who unfortunately form part of the longer and longer queues for dole and emigration. I was a ‘statistic’ in both of these categories myself.

          I can try and summarise what I see as real long term or true employment potential in the following but please bear in mind that without the political and public discourse we will never discover the ‘Unknown Unknowns’ so to speak. This will require vision and long term planning to truly manage our resources, including the human capital required to make it happen:

          - Reforest our countryside, with a focus on native and indigenous plants including a heavy emphasis on fruit and nut trees and fungi giving us long term, sustainable sources of food. Note the emphasis on long term. We currently grow shorter term plants for paper, cardboard etc., with no emphasis on longer term food sources and sustainable management.
          - Knock all undesirable and ill conceived housing estates, recycling all materials in the process and utilise all recycled materials in social and affordable housing, if applicable. Replant said land with food plants, maintained by suitably appointed land stewards, horticulturalists, agricultural and environmental experts.
          - Urbanise our food production as much as we have historically depended on rural production. Instead of monuments to technology in our cities, plant trees that will provide fruit in season. Get used to seeing nature in the concrete environment rather than concrete in the natural environment. Create pockets of vegetation managed by appointed land management professionals. From a psychological wellness perspective the knock on effect might be the social calming brought about by the natural green environment versus the grey concrete of our cities that encourages harshness and aggressiveness.
          - Include Organic and Sustainable Agricultural Science, Permaculture and Land Management on all university and 3rd level courses, from Arts to Computer Science to Medicine, thereby giving every graduate an appreciation and holistic understanding of the impact of their decisions on the environment.
          - Include organic horticulture on all primary and post primary curriculum.
          - Replant our bogs. Yes we’re losing them due to unsustainable harvesting and land management. They are a carbon sink and a huge source of diversity and tourism potential.
          - Train everyone who is willing to be a beekeeper. Connect the dots between ecology, management and food supply. You might not know this but in some parts of the world they hand pollinate plants because they’ve eradicated the bees through the use of pesticides. Look at the label on your honey to see where it comes from……..you might be surprised to find that it’s not Irish.
          - Connection to nature is a proven source of well being. Get people reconnected with nature, they get healthier in the process, waiting lists for doctors and hospitals reduce, the savings can be applied into health education and the encouragement of increased PE on our school curriculum.
          - Restock and protect our rivers, lakes and bays.
          - Remediate all water supply sources and encourage water conservation measures.
          - Restrict all industry from pumping processed water into the our water supply. The water coming out of industry should be better than that going in.
          - We currently don’t utilise our coastline to it’s maximum sustainable potential. We have thousands of products that can be sustainably produced from seaweeds, shellfish, algae etc. Algae are a source of energy.
          - Re-educate people on the value of locally sourced and produced food.
          - Root and branch review of the public procurement process to achieve year over year 10% savings on publically procured goods and services and savings applied directly to university research into above areas.
          - Legislate that all new buildings both public and private must have a minimum of 50% Irish produced materials and increase that value year over year.
          - Require that every house in the country is insulated through a government subsidised energy saving scheme.
          - Plant Bio-fuel crops on traditionally unusable and stoney land to reduce oil imports thereby reducing the rick of jeopardising actual food crop demand.
          - Focus on Sustainable Land Management for Tourism. Truly ‘green’ our great country and shine a light on how clean and green it can actually be.
          - Severely limit all oil and gas exploration on land and around our coastline and replace with long term renewable, sustainable energy, such as wind, solar, wave generation, tidal, bio-fuel, algae etc. Instead of the revenues from fossil fuel based industry going off shore, onshore sustainable resources and jobs.
          - Trade our sustainably managed products internationally.

          The most valuable commodities of the future are Food, Water and Security.

          The conversation has to start somewhere.

          Thanks.
          Dave

          • JACKW

            I would also like to add that if you are a farmer who is not using his/her land in a productive and sustainable manner then that land should be compulsory purchased by the state and sold or rented to willing and able land stewards. No farmer should be subsidised for unused land of that land can be turned to a sustainable food or raw material source.

            Thanks.

          • Bamboo

            Thanks Dave.
            We need more people like you. Yes, the conversation has to start somewhere. I am afraid the country is looking for a quick fix. From stats data I guess that the country is emptying itself. The ones that are left behind will find other ways to move forward and I think your ideas will flourish among the ruins.
            Yes, I do agree with you as well about the beauty of the country. Besides that, Ireland is such a civilized society although many are so angry that it is not possible to see it. We should all try and compare our society with other societies in the world.

            BTW: Regarding unused land – the number of empty properties from way before the boom and as far back as the early 90s should be tackled as well. These properties are an eyesore and can be used for other purposes.

          • bonbon

            Odd, but Al Gore started that conversation with his books, after plagiarizing Prince Philip.

            That is not a new conversation, just more of the Tiger (without houses of course).

            Much better to take a completely different approach, the Arctic is now open for business. Shannon needs a Deep Harbor immediately. We must link up to the Eurasian Landbridge for productive efficient transport. And we need to power all that. We have a maritime horizon, vast open now. Russia as partner, a compass shift from the EU obsession. The Med will go for a huge Marshall Plan, with various critical links to Africa. The USA will go with NAWAPA XXI, the greatest water and biospheric intervention in human history. Much more to come. All of it not in Al Gore’s tracts.

    • Grey Fox

      Excellent post, I agree 200%

      • whatamess

        c
        ompulsory purchased eh….lol

        so the farmer isn’t working his land (sweating the asset) ( ahem,his asset,his land) as you see fit to swooop in and TAKE CHARGE of something that doesn’t belong to you ….
        i for one don’t want to live in ‘that’ Ireland thanks very much

        • bonbon

          The only reason some land lies fallow is Brussels paying farmers to keep food production DOWN. A genocidal policy which that unelected Soviet dictates. No wonder Switzerland will not join this madness.
          With Brussels a Euro-museum, these idiotic biofuel and anti-food policies will be history. No need to expropriate anyone’s land, but a big need to expropriate Brussels.

        • JACKW

          My caveat to this string is that I don’t have all the answers, but thanks for joining the conversation.

          There is a ‘choice’ in this argument. In a time of national crisis land should be appropriated for best use, i.e. food production in this case versus roads or telephone poles, in the national interest. The farmer has the choice to use the land or to have it rented out or sold to someone who will. It’s a WIN-WIN. RENT/SELL. There are a lot of people in Ireland who would gladly work land, rented or otherwise, but are unable to access any because of continuing inflated prices or a reluctance on the part of the farming community to release land for rent.

          I would also suggest that beef production is an inefficient use of a national resource i.e. land, as the suggested usage is 1 hectare per 1.7 livestock units. We need to start thinking differently and not just accepting the age old adage of ‘that’s teh way it’s always been done.’

          Lastly, I agree with bonbon below. Why pay farmers for set aside or inefficient use of resources? Does it make sense? I, for one, don’t think so.

          Thanks again for your comments,
          Dave

        • JACKW

          @bamboo. You are quite right. Too many abandoned eye sores, even pre Celtic Tiger. That’s another source of employment. Thanks. Dave

  14. gizzy

    Some real world figures

    My Restaurant 3rd week sept 2008 turnover 23,000 staff 20 same week 2009 t/o 18,000 staff 18 2010 t/o 12,000 staff 14 2011 t/o 9000 staff 11 2012 t/o 6500 staff 9

    Oct 2 2012 closed down

    • mediator

      Hi Gizzy,

      Thats interesting and a bit depressing. Can I ask what kind of restaurant was it?

      • gizzy

        Hi Mediator 100 seater daytime 8 until 5.30. Hotfood deli etc. Reduced prices three times in three years.

        Used to open nights also had tried three different menus and music before giving up and cancelling drinks licence which had cost me about 7 k to get.

        • Puschkin the Black and White Cat

          Gizzy
          That’s terrible! you have my heartfelt condolences. Apart from ill health in your family or yourself, this is the worst thing that can happen. The public service is like a parasite without any constraint that will destroy the host to satisfy its terrifying craving. Burton and her best friend Noonan could do well to consider the position that people like you find themselves in. By the way, anyone know where Gilmore is gone, haven’t seen him for months, did he ever return from the St Patricks bash?

          • PeterAndrewNolan

            “this is the worst thing that can happen.”

            Nope..the worst thing that can happen is for a greedy and selfish woman to steal a mans children and the man to be so depressed he kills himself.

            This happens pretty much every day in Ireland…and no one cares…no one will even mention such a man.

            When I was suicidal in April 2008 not ONE person whom I knew before divorce bothered to even ask me how I was. This was despite the fact that ALL members of my extended family knew that my children had been kidnapped and relocated to places unknown against my expressed written non consent.

            Losing a business or ill health? Peanuts. Try having your children kidnapped and abused by the woman you loved for 23 years. Try being betrayed by our own family. See how you go.

            MANY food Irish men are in the ground because of that abuse…and NO ONE WILL EVEN TALK ABOUT IT.

            So don’t try and tell me you care…because I have seen how much Irish people care about dead men…and the answer is not at all.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Well Gizzy,
      I run a software firm called Instant Business Intelligence…in 2006 I made EUR220 revenue. 2007 was down because wifey attacked me in the family courts. Taxes paid 06/07 were EUR110K…staff…JUST ME…

      I was my own little celtic tiger.

      In 2007 I closed my first breakthrough deal in Germany proving my software could be sold separately to my services…that is why wifey jumped the gun on the family courts.

      So I left Ireland as I had been criminally victimised and had no recourse to law.

      Wifey got 95% of assets and I was left with MINUS EUR50,000 after 25 years of working…..she won’t even hand over the paperwork for where my pension funds are…and 99.9% of Irish women openly support and condone this situation.

      And now the same criminals are victimising other people and they are “upset”? You people losing your business now should have been more help to fathers losing their families earlier…may be I would have a bit more sympathy for you.

      If you business was destroyed by your wife in divorce rather than by the economy your fellow Irish men and women would hate on you like they hate on me for even mentioning this.

      The irish economy deserves to crash and be destroyed for how Irish people have treated Irish fathers for at least the last 5 years but likely much longer. And I am telling the irish lads about this too.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      PS…all my revenue came from outside Ireland…in 2006/07 I did not work one billable day in Ireland. I also took about 20 international flights in that period. Apparently men like me are not wanted in Ireland. Strange…that.

  15. Deco

    [
    According to the report: “Accrued pension entitlements of public servants are a significant liability of the state. At end December 2009, a total of €116 billion had accrued in respect of occupational pensions payable to public servants.
    Those liabilities represent the estimated present value of the cash payments that fall to be met over the next 60 years in respect of pensions earned at December 31, 2009.”
    ]

    There is something complete ballistic about the trajectory of the institutional state in this country.

    It is just plain mad. The state simply has too much power over the economy.

    The institutional state is providing a Bertie Ahern like existence to all those who participate in it.

    It is absolute MADNESS.

    • gizzy

      Deco

      I worked in it for a few years. It is mad there were senior people on a permanent go slow. The highlight of their day was lunch and the highlight of their career was retirement.I know there are good people in the public service but you do meet a class of manager and employee you never get in the private sector. They would be fired.

      • Deco

        There are senior people who are too stupid to be able to do anything other than a permanent go slow.

        Look at Kevin Cardiff – the man who stood over the auditting of the banks before the crash. Check out what he told the US Embassy, and was released via Wikileaks.

        We are talking about a seriously compromised spoofer. And Punches De Rossa did everything to but in charge of auditting the EU. Now, he is in charge of an even bigger responsibility.

        The whole thing is rotten.

      • Puschkin the Black and White Cat

        Gizzy
        That’s terrible! you have my heartfelt condolences. Apart from ill health in your family or yourself, this is the worst thing that can happen. The public service is like a parasite without any constraint that will destroy the host to satisfy its terrifying craving. Burton and her best friend Noonan could do well to consider the position that people like you find themselves in. By the way, anyone know where Gilmore is gone, haven’t seen him for months, did he ever return from the St Patricks bash?

        • Grey Fox

          He has been busy appeasing his masters in the good old USA and ticking another box on his CV with his address to the UN, he also gave a report update to the financial bosses via Bloomberg News interview so his report card to good as far as he is concerned!

    • Tony Brogan

      “The state simply has too much power over the economy. ”

      Agreed. The state should should have NOTHING to do with the economy. It is not a function of government one bit.

      Many think that the government can produce jobs–withness the rhetoric in the US campaign.

      We have to reduce government to its essentials thereby reducing costs, and then taxes to below 30% of GDP. Ideal would be a slim budget of 20% of GDP.

      Free the people to release inovation and energy.
      All is being wasted now to protect what is already largely lost. Better to cut free and start again and point the energy to the future rather than the past.

  16. David,

    Great article and analysis, IMHO. It might seem pessimistic, but history suggests that things only change when a substantial chunk of the middle class cannot afford to eat. Ireland is not there yet.

    “Ireland is just unusual. In most countries, first the capital flees the sinking ship, followed by the people. In Ireland, the people flee first”

    True that. Maybe today for different reasons. The figures for younger people should be frightening. Always thought that if one has brains and a bit of initiative and creative flair, Ireland is not really the place to be. Opinions vary, but the most creative and motivated years of adult life tend to be between early twenties and early thirties, and these appear to be the people that are leaving. Sad really.

    Only this morning I heard a discussion about jobs, unemployment, education etc on Newstalk.ie, and it was all about how the education system has failed Irish industry, as it doesn’t provide enough young people with “skills” and the “ability to hit the ground running”, and how industry couldn’t possibly afford to take on University graduates because the were “useless” (they were especially critical of Third Level education in this context). I do wonder, who wouldn’t run a million miles from that kind of claptrap.

    • Bamboo

      Liam,
      Absolutely agree with your post.
      “middle class cannot afford to eat. Ireland is not there yet”,
      Most creative and motivated years of adult life.

      Especially about the education.
      We have to realize that the world is changing and part of that world is the education system. It is not anymore about how we have to train and exercise our brains. It is not anymore about a couple of years study and get degree and get the VTEC levels up. It is now serious and has to get to the nitty gritty learning and “finger” exercise the brains. It is not anymore about doing an IT course. Doing what exactly in an IT course? Is it Programming, web development, audio, video, animation, gaming, cloud computing? Doing what in Programming, video, animation, gaming, etc? The list goes on. Education needs to go into lots of knowledge about something small rather little knowledge about a lot.

      • wills

        Concur with you there. +1

        And this is a new paradigm the dialectical forces of history are serving us up wetehr we want it or not.

        It is the 2001 monolith.

    • coldblow

      Liam

      Yes, I like the ‘hit the ground running’ one, like the ‘self starter’ and all the other cliches. What were these dynamic types up to during the bubble?

      I don’t know about the most creative years being so early in life as you claim. It seems to be true for rock music and footballers, but I doubt it applies much beyond that. I ‘wasted’ that part of my life teaching.

      I also wonder about the creativity and the flair. Where would that be visible now? Not being smart, serious question.

    • Fellow contributors,

      Education is one of my pet love/hates. I was all set to reply to your comments, but you would do better to read our hosts latest article instead.

      http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/10/09/our-outdated-eduation-system-is-failing-us

      -liam

  17. Deco

    [
    Countries like Ireland will have to default, renegotiate, repudiate, whatever you like to call it.
    ]
    But if we explored any of these options we would no longer be at the heart of the gigantic scam that the EU is becomming.

    • Grey Fox

      I believe more and more citizens are coming to the realisation that they do not want to be at “the heart” because it is rotten to the core.

      • Deco

        Precisely put.

        When you see the “EU Leaders” assembling for what the propaganda quango (RTE) calls a “solution”….and then you find out it just means sticking the bill to welfare recipients in Greece, and working people in Germany, while the gamblers get a 100% rebate…..you begin to smell serious rot in the “core”.

  18. Bamboo

    The generation that are settled with no or very little mortgage or other outstanding loans and so are comfortable mentioned in an earlier article. I wonder what the statistics are on this group with adult children, are unemployed but still very employable in a different country. How long are they willing to play golf and do all sort of hobbies that they always wanted to do but never got around to doing when they were raising their children? However, there will be a time soon when boredom kicks in. They know that they are very experienced and skilled in their field of business or discipline, have all the degrees and whatever credentials they have to find employment. Above all they still feel young and healthy and have the energy and drive. Will this group be holidaying all the time while the unlucky others (often their own children) are struggling? Will they try to set up a business and have a go at their entrepreneurial adventures only to find out there is no business out there (in Ireland)? ? Will they have a go at it or do they choose to stay at home and play golf, do that photography course, read the books they always wanted to read, grow their own vegetables stuff, do the voluntary work, etc etc, etc.

    Or will they have a go at an adventure somewhere else in the world? Will they use their skills and experience to good use in a foreign country? What are actually the risks involved in trying somewhere else for this group. “The world is your oyster” will become very apparent all of a sudden. What is there to loose?
    The way young people left the countryside and farm to go into the big city to find work and a new life – these young people are now doing exactly the same as back then. It is leaving the countryside (Ireland) again to find work somewhere outside Ireland. Only this time it is much easier to make that choice than that generation leaving the family farm. With our new and free communication systems and travelling home so cheap the choice is even easier to make. It is only selfishness from the people staying behind it is.

    The worry is not capital or people leaving the country. The worry is that we are suddenly forced to enter a new era. An era that we have no idea what is going to happen? Like a child who is worried going from primary school to secondary school, into college and finally get a job in the “big bad world”. We are worried that we are entering a new “terrifying” phase in our society. That new phase is regarded as the “big bad world”. What we have stipulated for our future is now out the window and we have to learn how to go with the flow. Young people can easily adapt to and adopt a new world but the older generation will have difficulties coming to terms with this. Until they take action and make the change for themselves they will never find out and all they can do is worry and wait till the storm blows over. The weatherman can’t even forecast when that storm is going to end.

  19. cooldude

    Here is a video of influential neocon Patrick Clawson openly discussing how America can be drawn into a war with Iran and the “necessity” of initiating a false flag event to ensure this happens. He openly discusses the previous use of false flag events by the American government. He is a member of The Washington Institute foe Near East Studies one of whose founding members is Paul Wolfovitz, who was very close to Bush. This is beyond scary and is crystal clear
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfoaLbbAix0&feature=youtu.be

    • Tony Brogan

      He did say he did not advocate a false flag happening. BUT he did acknowledge that false flag or “events” occured that gave the excuse to go to war and I add mostly undeclared wars as “police actions”.

    • bonbon

      He is being blindsided, or simply covering for Obama. There is massive blowback over the murdered diplomat in Bengazi – there was prior knowledge. Obama and Susan Rice went on coverup mode. This is the kind of thing that got Nixon out. As long as Obama stays the threat of major war is imminent. It does not really matter how a “Tonkin” works, it leads straight against Russia and Putin knows it. Calling it “spontaneous” and not a planned and monitored operation is Watergate stuff.

  20. Lord Jimbo

    But surely capital flight not taken place in the preceding 4 years???

    Numbers cited in article merely reflect the reality on the ground, I am amazed there still is a ‘high street’, plus often wonder why government ministers so often talk about tough budgets, I can’t think of a single worse thing for consumer confidence. They are literally killing off business with their idle words.

    • Grey Fox

      The high street is dying a slow painful death, I walked around Clery’s on Sunday and it became apparent very quickly to me that even with a 50% sale on, there was no way I could justify the asking prices on display, that was quite apart from the fact that I couldn’t afford anything anyway even if I wanted it.

  21. redriversix

    Good morning

    This Country is Bankrupt,their is no money ,only debt.

    We cannot afford all this debt,therefore like any bankrupt company you either do a deal with creditors or default entirely.

    Government is clearly incompetent and in the pay of Bankers,venture capitalists, Pension Fund Managers, and the many Corporations ran by the few and profiting from the many.

    No matter how many posts are put up regarding solving this crisis,they are ,although excellent reading and posted by people who are passionate,..irrelevant and that includes me too.

    As I said,Government does not care about this State’s Population,therefore you must take matters in to your own hands and protect yourself and your family first.

    Their is clear evidence of this over the last 18 months & perhaps farther back so you do not have to take my word for it,do your homework,check it out.

    We know where Government stands..do we know where we stand ? Has anyone done a budget lately..?

    Very tough decisions are going to have to be made by people who have been or will be effected by this Financial War.and you need to start making them now.

    Budget 2013 will be horrific,the year 2013 may be just as bad and continue to get worse as NO real solutions have been put forward over the last 4 years.

    Would you rather be pro-active or a victim.?

    I imagine most would prefer to be pro-active.

    Suicide
    Addiction
    poor health
    Stress/Fear/anxiety
    martial breakdown
    Children suffering

    All these symptoms will increase as Government continues to destroy a quality of life once enjoyed by many,basic rights,.. to a decent job,…right to raise a Family,… Healthcare, social welfare,social services,home-care,medical treatments education.& care for the elderly who have come before us.

    Services your taxes and indirect taxes pay for and paid into for many generations,yet people are painted as leeches if they have to turn to the State for help.

    Budget 2013 is coming..Prepare
    Christmas is Coming prepare

    Do a budget,strip the rubbish from your life,treat ever Euro as a Prisoner,let politicians use the word presume,you presume nothing and anticipate everything.

    Debt cannot be solved by more debt..never has never will

    Government needs to be taken down,hopefully it will not last beyond next April…Hopefully.

    Cannot afford School fee’s ? take them out and put them in regular School..I did,My Kids are fine.

    Cannot afford car payments ? Hand it back,you will be fine…
    Take these bold & difficult decisions and more,….you will survive.
    You do not need debt forgiveness,if you are doing the best you can…you have nothing to worry about,!

    Cancel your debt or drastically reduce them and inform your Bank,if you ask for help you will get help,if you talk to banks and they don’t want to listen,don’t worry a Judge will make them listen,…..IF ARE DOING YOUR BEST AND CAN PROOF IT WITH BUDGETS & GOOD RECORD KEEPING.You have nothing to worry about.This is not my theory , this is my practical experience,so I know what its like.

    You do not have to suffer,but if you prefer a glass of wine and forget about till”Monday”…? Fuck ya,your on your own and you will realize [too late] you cannot escape reality.

    Too blunt ? anything to get people’s attention to wake up and protect themselves.!
    Do Not allow yourselves to be “dumbed down” anymore,TODAY IS THE START OF THE REST OF YOUR LIFE,DON’T WASTE YOUR TIME,USE IT !!

    END OF LECTURE.!

    HAVE A GREAT DAY

    RR6

  22. Grey Fox

    Just heard on Newstalk news report that it is now officially easier to access a small business loan in Greece than it is in Ireland!!

    • Deco

      Well, even Greece is not sending it’s financial resources out of the economy, in an effort to please failed gamblers holding Bank bonds (also called “UNSECURED” debt”).

  23. coldblow

    Hi David

    Yes, the figures are impossible and everyone here has known that for at least three years, as you know yourself.

    As I’ve mentioned here before, I don’t anticipate collecting much from my ‘Rolls Royce’ pension and I’m not in any hurry to get there either.

    As you say, if we weren’t in the Euro inflation could cut PS wages down to size, and most other people’s along with them.

    In Hudson’s view the idea in order to squeeze private sector wages is to start on the PS first.

    I’m not too happy about the middle classes offshoring their capital and then bringing it back after a bust. It doesn’t seem right somehow although I can understand why people would do it. Anyway, it’s not sure there is any real safe haven out there. (We’ve been over this too.)

    There seems to be a lack of historical undersanding about all this, as if the past never happened and so we have to root around trying to get a handle on what is happening now. It’s all political of course but people seem less equipped to deal with it than in the past.

    • mediator

      Hi Coldblow

      I take it from your earlier post that your were/Are? a teacher. Would you mind expanding on why it was/is a waste – id just be interested in your view and whether you are still teaching or in some other walk of life.

      • coldblow

        Hi mediator.

        I was a full-time sec. teacher for 5 years in England until 1987 when I came over here. I worked in tele-marketing and sales on a commission-only basis for about a year and then did a few years subsitute teaching (which is a quite different thing to full time). I got into the Civil Service in 1995 and life changed – I was now an insider.

        In telemarketing and sales I had a phone glued to my ear for 7 hours a day and I got to know the Golden Pages intimately. It was not as draining as teaching.

        Re it being a waste I used inverted commas but I expressed myself clumsily. I was really saying that a few people (not Liam) seem to imply that it’s not a proper, or creative or whatever occupation (you know the hackneyed piece of folk wisdom: those who can do, those who don’t teach). In a way though it was a waste as in many, if not most schools, an excessive amount of time is taken up with crowd control.

  24. Grey Fox

    2013 Budget is going to be vicious, make no mistake about it! the only thing worse than the actual budget is the next two and a half months of fishing excercises by our illustrious government, and the stress that this practice will cause to the general population. If you take regard of nothing else! just think of this as you try to convince yourself that our Public Trustee’s have the best interests of the citizens of Ireland at heart.
    These goombeen politicians will heap more and more worry on hundreds of thousands of Irish citizens who are already at the edge of a cliff, all in the name of constructing a budget for their benefit, when if fact all they are doing is furthering the cause of corrupt bankers and technocrats in Europe. How many lives will the next 2.5 months actually cost, how many people will take the final step due to constant media barrages about impending or possible impending budget cuts? We truely live in a disgusting and inhuman era, and to the self serving assholes in Kildare St remember, we have nothing coming in and we “ALL” have nothing going out other than the record of our time here, as things stand, it appears that this does not concern any of you in the slightest!

    • molly

      Vicious for who the very people in charge will not be in any way left short.
      This will only be vicious if we sit back and take this crap.

  25. molly

    This government is just going through the motions and with there budget looming things are about to get a lot worse.
    The time for talking must surely be over.
    Think about this this government want to help new company’s start up but all the while they let existing company’s go under, you can set up company after company be they small or large but if people are not spending due to there lack of money surely you are flogging a dead horse

  26. Deco

    Excellent article. Sorry for not saying this earlier.

  27. michaelcoughlan

    I liked this article in the SBP because it continues the recent trend of humanising economics in real terms. Thanks for that. Sorry gizzy to hear about the resteraunt I am sure from your post that it was the external factors were responsible for shutting it down. It really beggars belief that we have a crowd in the government who are still focused on the status quo and still taking orders from Europe rather than demand equality and parity of esteem and start to negotiate like equals. It’s clear they want to be able to say ‘look we did it your way and Ireland as been laid waste so what will you do for us nor ‘ It really is shocking!

    • Grey Fox

      Unfortunately with that action plan the damage will be all consuming, maybe it has something to do with the Irish pysche of subordination and subservience. The time is now to stand up and say enough is enough!

    • gizzy

      Thanks Michael. The compliments are flowing in from customers on our facebook page now that we are closed. they just don’t have the money.

      Most small business owners are now behind on vat payments, rates and rent and are hardly paying themselves the minimum wage.

      • Grey Fox

        You will bounce back Gizzy, I can read between the lines.
        I was in your situation and spent a very demoralising two years trying to keep a business alive eventually taking no wages just paying every body else except me until the realisation sunk it. It is a very difficult truth to admit, and a heartrending result to all your hard work. The comparision when I scale it up to our economy is uncanny, unfortunately with the exception being, the trustee’s of our economy take a different view and ensure that the are paid FIRST and thus insulate themselves from the realities.

      • And guess what… the FSO, Financial Services Ombudsman is prohibited BY LAW to take on board potentially around 89,000 small businesses in Ireland – Entrepreneurs anyone? – a situation the Ombudsman himself had nothing but harsh critique for. Ministers Noonan and Shatter had not rectified the situation to date, but cash handsomely on a four weekly basis and look forward to their final statement of retirement.

        Who?

        Courtesy of then Minister Cowen who enacted a statutory instrument into the irish central banking act to prohibit them to avail of the FSO’s services, and that was a minute before the crash!

        Ireland?

        Close the door and let the Atlantic do the rest.

      • Minimum wage?

        Man, I’ve been there, have the t-shirt, got the cap. ZERO wage and 16 hours days for about + 2 years was and more then likely is NORMAL for a great many in this boat.

        Feckbook comments are worth a flying Bull, sorry, but I mean well, do not dwell on it Gizzy, you might drown otherwise. It did not work, so be it.

        Look forward…. and never look back!

  28. Direland

    A recent survey found that over 50% of Irish SME’s are on the edge and in danger of going bust.The Gombeen’s in Government have never run a business and managed profit and cash flow – they think there is always more money to be had – your money – from taxes and charges etc.Ray McSharry said as much in the Sindo this w/e by stating that He found increeasing income taxes had no effect on growth ( hah !).Politicians are a breed unto themselves.Until We , the Irish people who are not part of the Public Sector are prepared to literally stand up and be counted by protesting en masse , the Government ( and the EU/ECB/IMF) will continue to ignore us. It is only when threatened with possible revolution or significant social upheaval will they back down on debt write offs. Nothing else will achieve this least of all talks and “negotiation”.In the meatime the Boys in the “Doyle” are enjoying tax free perks , great pay and pensions and use of all State Facilities free gratis …not bad if you can get away with it !

  29. Minister Cromwell

    I wonder if we all can be able to enjoy the current freedom as we do on this site in a years time or will events constrain our thoughts and ideas and banish us to a Dungeon of no entity .The pen of Ministerial Politics has no boundry and the power it plays is mortal to say the least .

    What will bind us and who of the us do we see our allegiances to and who leads .When logic fails so do all foundations .So what will be the colour of the new redemption from deep below and what does that make you and your children become? What badge will be on your sleeve and how long have you left to breath .

    As David says the numbers continue to damm us .Tomorrow we will all be Dammed if we are not so already .

  30. redriversix

    Evening all

    Thanks for the comments

    A.I.B loses 1.4 Billion euro in first 6 months of this year and gets a Billion of our money yesterday to pay bondholders failed investment in a Failed Bank and a failing Government puts failed polices ahead of its suffering people.

    I suggest we start giving the people in power ulcers instead of getting them.

    Hope you and yours are okay today Gizzy,your doing great and a inspiration to many.

    When things were really tough for me,I remember asking somebody “why me,why is this happening to me”..?..

    The guy thought for a second and looked at me and said “why not you ? are you special or something..?”Shit happens..

    It was tough to hear but made a lot of sense and life got simpler after that..!

    Have a great evening

    RR6

  31. molly

    We have been taken for fools our pensions have been destroyed and we have been played.
    Look at the shortfall in the pension pot,how long will it take for some of the pension fund company’s go bang
    how long will it be before this government runs out of money,the whole system used to run this country is built on sand and its sinking fast remember the governments telling you you should have your own pension you may as well play the slots.
    The serious over haul we where promised by this government is a joke do you trust them,they have carried on with the same old same old.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      molly says:
      “We have been taken for fools our pensions have been destroyed and we have been played.”

      Well Molly. Your bible says “do unto others as you would have them do unto you”.

      And what you did was hate on fathers, steal their children, steal their houses, steal their futures, and in many cases steal their very lives.

      And when a man like me stood up and told you this is what you Irish women were doing you hated on me, you demonised me, you vilified me and you slandered me.

      And now you are having your money stolen, your future stolen, you life ruined. And you deserve it because you allowed it to happen to tens of thousands of good Irish men and even Australians of Irish descent like me.

      What did you think would happen when 99.9% of Irish women openly condoned the crimes of perjury, kidnapping, extortion theft and child abuse given the chance by the state? Did you think the state was not going to steal from YOU NEXT?

      And did you think these men who you have told for 40 years you need like a fish needs a bicycle? These men whose children were stolen, houses stolen, futures stolen would want to stand up for the very women who betrayed them?

      Welcome to “do unto others”. This is the lesson you are being taught now. I wonder if you Irish women will listen. I did a radio show on TNS three years ago telling you women that you were best advised to support your men or your men are not going to be willing to defend you because of your betrayal.

      So…now….show us men how “equal” you really are.

      You women wanted to be equal? Well you are going to be…equally impoverished…it is what you deserve.

      • Peter

        1.You got it down the wrong tube. LOL

        2. There is no need for another divide

        3. My bible does not exist, it is a book at the most, and there is something to be said about books!

        4. Real empathy is the ingredient lacking. We are all five fingered humans, and as such we are the same!

        • PeterAndrewNolan

          George,
          you are absolutely correct real empathy is lacking.

          When Irish fathers have their lives destroyed? I saw the empathy on display by other irish fathers. Zero Georg. Absolute zero…so do not be trying to lecture me. I have seen how much fathers are hated on in Ireland. And when the topic is brought up? Do you have empathy for those fathers? Nope. You try and lecture a man like me.

          It will not wash Georg. You men betrayed other fathers. You betrayed the children of Ireland. You openly condoned and supported criminal women destroying families. I produced the book on this topic.

          “No need for another divide”?

          So the women who commit the crimes of perjury, kidnapping, extortion, theft and child abuse? The women who condone these crimes? The men who condone these crimes? They are NOT creating a “divide”, right?

          But the man who points this out? He is creating a “divide” and should just SHUT UP right?

          I am GLAD the Irish economy is being destroyed. I am GLAD that your young men are fleeing the country in droves. Because men like you betrayed them and you deserve to have your sons turn their backs on you and leave your for your betrayal.

          You Irish people are not so smug now are you? Many of you laughed at me as my life was destroyed in 2008. Well? Are you laughing now?

          “Do unto others” Georg. It is the lesson you are being taught now. No man in Ireland can legitimately claim he did not know of the criminal abuse of fathers. And now the rest of you are copping it.

          By the way? I have the cases to remove ALL members of the Dail…and I have been calling for jury members for THREE YEARS. I have the cases to rescind the EUR85B bail out….and even THEN do any of you Irish fathers help me?

          No..you say totally useless things like “no need for another divide”. There is a reason for Irish Jokes…and you are one of them.

          • PeterAndrewNolan

            PS Georg and others….
            Yes…you heard that correctly. I am the accuser who built his impeccable case that can rescind the EUR85 billion bail out as an odious debt.

            The rescinding of odious debts is a well established international practice. And as far as I know? I am the ONLY man who has such a case to be presented in Ireland. But you Irish people have been so busy hating on me for so long now that you hate me so much you do not even want to run that case. Apparently you would prefer to pay EUR85 BILLION rather than give a criminally abused father a path to justice.

            Good luck with that.

      • redriversix

        Morning Peter

        My advice ? although you didn’t ask for it…..

        Try and let go of the anger because from what I read your a heart attack waiting to happen.
        If you are angry with someone today,its their problem,if you are angry with them tomorrow,its your problem…

        Let it go man,shit happens.life is way to short.

        Peace & best wishes

        • RR6, do a google on this chap, he stated himself to have written a book.

          Geeeze Louise, there must be something in the water in Ireland, no wonder they are going to charge for it, no wonder!

          Hahahaha!

        • Quoting Mr Nolan:

          .we are ALL misogynists now and that is quite fine by me….

          The FACT is that western women are misandrists…they are FULL OF HATRED and we have PROVEN that by amassing EVIDENCE.

          Right! Hahahaha, that is sorted.

          This blog needs a ignore function, like yesterday, badly.

          • PeterAndrewNolan

            Georg,
            “Hahahaha, that is sorted.”

            Irish men are killing themselves as a result of criminal victimisation in divorce and your response is to laugh about it.

            How hate filled can you get? I hope one of those angry Irish men who has had everything taken from him pays you a visit to explain how hate filled you are.

        • PeterAndrewNolan

          Redriversix,
          it is always interesting that people falsely accuse me of being “angry”. Here are some other false accusations that are common to men who have been criminally victimised.

          “Bitter”, “wife beater”, “paedophile”, “dead beat dad”, “child abuser”, “he deserved it”, “she did the right thing screwing him over”. These are things you will find LOTS of men and women say to LOTS of men.

          Here is something you might have heard of “thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour”, “thou shalt not steal”. Yet. In Ireland. When a man is victim of these crimes what follows is MORE hatred and false accusations.

          I am HAPPY the Irish economy is being crashed into the ground. It is what you people deserve for the HATRED you have leveled at so many men. I stopped to help Irish fathers. I spent 4,000 hours of my personal time and EUR300,000 of my personal money. I could have had my wife killed and it would have been easy. But I didn’t. I did the RIGHT thing.

          And this is how you people treat me. WW III can not come soon enough to people like you redriversix. It really can’t.

          Rather than falsely accuse me of being “angry” any decent human being would say “I can see you claim you were victim of a crime. I, for one, will sit on a jury to fairly and justly judge evidence you present”

          Nope…no Irish men will say THAT…it is all FALSE ALLEGATIONS and lies about men like me. Well? How is that Irish economy working out for all you hate filled Irish men? Who is the “fool” now, eh?

          • redriversix

            Okay Peter

            Got it,don’t worry ,your right I really couldn’t care less.

            you waste your life over shit that happens.., fine be me.

            And Yes your right,I have no idea were I got the idea your angry.you certainly come across as a very chilled out guy trying to deal with the hand that faith dealt him.

            I wish you well in your life

            Take care

            RR6

    • All pension funds are a scam, throughout EU 27 that is!

      This government is bust already, we know that, sand is more a solid ground.

      It is not a joke, it is controlled media landscapes, opinion leaders etc.

      What is coming down the pipe is mass poverty in Europe, full stop!

  32. BrummieBoy

    Hello.
    Greetings from Birmingham which is gaining some of the ‘brain drain’ from Ireland’s current crisis:

    “A number of young graduates are coming to Birmingham to work as nurses, occupational therapists and lawyers, and Manchester is also popular,” Jennie McShannon, chief executive of the Federation of Irish Societies.

    ‘Lure Britannia’ Irish Times

    http://bit.ly/PLcCUI

    It’s all very sad as the generation of 50s Irish are buried, new arrivals in Digbeth repeat the cycle followed by my parents. Alarmingly, some suggest this may be a structural change in the Irish economy which will not be unwound:

    ‘Feeder Nation’ risk for Ireland – Daily Telegraph

    http://bit.ly/SaCPBH

    A future of dwindling population and export agriculture does not sound any way to deal with the current debt mountain.

    regards

  33. molly

    Ireland as we know it is being dismantled in front of your very eyes.
    All over Ireland towns are being destroyed by county councles,forcing shoppers to shop in retail parks instead of towns ,the plan is like a death wish first they drive people out by parking fines and as we’ll they hammer shop keepers with high rates they can’t pay.
    Than they reduce the Garda so crime pays.
    Than they cut the HSE so don’t get sick.
    What about school to many in the class?
    What’s coming next? Any young person living at home who can’t get a job through no fault of their own will have his dole cut,forcing more to leave or stay and who knows what they will do for a few euros?

    • coldblow

      Hi molly

      I understand that in Spain your dole runs out after a couple of years. I anticipate this practice will catch on in Ireland too eventually as, of course, money is short. Crotty predicted that when the economy finally crashed there would be civil disturbance as there would no longer be any welfare to act as a sedative. He also pointed out that Ireland has the nucleus for any such insurrection in the form of armed republicanism.

      I hope you don’t mind me asking, but I had originally thought you were a woman because of the name but then I thought I read something by you implying that you were a married man. I might have got the wrong end of the stick there.

      • molly

        Yes I am a man the name I use is that of my femail dog Molly a golden cocker.
        Everyday there’s more and more bad news in this country we just keep going back wards ,the self interest groups who run and controll things are destroying what’s left to save,in this country.
        One gets the feeling that all the ongoing problems are just a distraction from the big picture that’s unfolding like the house of cards is going to come crashing down .

  34. PeterAndrewNolan

    David…..I note.

    “The first is the data on emigration, which continues relentlessly. Official figures show that the number of people who emigrated from Ireland soared to 87,000 over the last year. More than half of those who left the country in the 12 months up to April were Irish, and almost 36,000 were under the age of 25.”

    This is pretty funny. In 2006 I earned EUR220,000 in foreign income off my own bat. In 06/07 I paid EUR110,000 in income taxes in Ireland.

    However, because I was attacked by the criminals in the family courts and my company was destroyed I relocated.

    I had applied for citizenship but I refused to live in a land where a judge had criminally victimised me and no recourse was forthcoming. In 2009 my citizenship application was reviewed and it was recommended to be delayed because “there is nothing preventing Mr. Nolan from returning to Ireland”….Um…the minor exception that a judge had committed crimes against me and destroyed my company not withstanding I guess.

    I did not know this review had taken place and did not know the reason that my former wife and two children were granted their citizenship application and me not.

    So when the election was held and Alan Shatter became the new minister I contacted him to sort the matter out. Especially since he gave a big speech about how he was going to sort out the problems left by the previous guvment around immigration.

    Alan Shatter unilaterally denied my citizenship application in February for the apparent reason that I insisted that as the minister for justice he secure my rights.

    And then when my 5 year residency visa expired, and despite the fact that an EU directive obligates that I am entitled to a residency visa Alan Shatter continues to deny this.

    Presumably because I have stood up for the rights of ALL fathers in Ireland.

    And will any other Irish people stand up for my rights? Nope. I am just a father. Human flotsam like all other fathers. To be criminally victimised and abused by women and men alike with no recourse to law. I even have a letter purportedly from Alan Shatter stating that he has no role to play when judges commit crimes.

    Those young people leaving Ireland? That is better for them. They have been betrayed by the older generation and should have no loyalty and no respect for the older generation of Irish fathers.

    Irish fathers are not worthy of respect. I felt differently 5 years ago…but seeing that Irish fathers have been too cowardly to do what it takes to protect their own children and to secure the future of their own children? I can not have any respect for such fathers.

    I sacrificed all I held dear because I felt that Irish Fathers needed all the help they could get to re-introduce the rule of law into Ireland.

    Sadly? Even with all the help in the world they are too cowardly to even sit on a jury for the fee of one ounce of silver per hour.

    If a father is too cowardly to sit on a jury? His sons SHOULD turn their backs on him and his land and make their future elsewhere. Such men are not worthy of the title father.

    And when a decent father DOES stand up and denounce the criminals in the dail and prepare cases to bring them to trial? Other fathers hate on him for doing so because it shows them up.

    How sad for your sons to see this. No wonder they are leaving.

    • Peter, this is not a uncommon situation, discrimination is the name of the game and you know it.

      Yes, they are leaving, rightly so!

      • PeterAndrewNolan

        There is a BIG difference between criminal victimisation, criminal discrimination, and mere every day run of the mill discrimination Georg.

        Criminal acts are subject to remedy. Only Irish fathers are too cowardly to set up their own courts. They think a criminal like Alan Shatter who has the title “Minister for Justice” is going to see justice done. This despite Alan Shatter allegedly authorising an email to me stating that he has no role to play when judges commit crimes. Indeed, his letter quite clearly states that Judges are above the law and are not answerable to anyone when they commit crimes.

        So yes…the lads should leave. And the reason they should leave is men like you have betrayed their future by being cowards and not being willing to establish courts of law to put ALL criminals on trial.

        The issues of Ireland are one of a criminal nature…not “accidental”. I have the proof that Brian Cowan and Mary McAleese were aware of the criminal nature of the judiciary in November 2007…BEFORE the bail out.

        If they are found guilty of the crimes of which I shall accuse them then the bail out decision was one taken by criminals which means it is an odious debt that can be rescinded from the beginning.

        Your problem is I am the accuser and you need my co-operation to bring that case. And the only way I am going to bring that case is on the back of gaining justice for myself.

  35. Taxes 2012?

    PICKPOCKETS, it is larceny, period!

    Pickpocketing is one of the oldest and most widespread crimes in the world. The appeal is its relative safety: A skilled pickpocket can make off with just as much money as an armed robber, without much danger of confrontation or risk of being identified in a line-up. By the time the victim realizes what’s happened, the pickpocket is long gone.

    RETIRED!

  36. michaelcoughlan

    Hi peter Andrew Nolan.

    My heart is breaking for you. Where are you from? Don’t waste your time with your proof about Irish politicians knowledge etc of wrongdoing. Take it from this Irishman if you were ever to expose such information which no doubt is in Ireland national interest it is impossible to describe in words how intensely despised you would be for ‘helping’ the locals. Know wfy? Every asshole Irishman would have to admit three things. 1) what s scrounging bastard he is in the way he makes his living 2) what a coward he really is for not doing the right thing 3) what an insufferable scumbag he is altogether for landing his kids with the responsibility for what is going on!

    I love your honesty. Put yourself first and forget all intentions of helping Irish people. We are not s race worthy of such endeavour.

    Michael.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Michael,
      if you want to find out what I have done then google “crimes against fathers”. There is a portal for Irish fathers and Irish women.

      As it is? I know only ONE Irish father who was really prepared to have a go. He was thrown in jail EIGHT TIMES last year for standing up to the guvment. He is considering leaving he is so disgusted in his fellow Irish fathers.

      I am from Australia originally. I recently made the daily mail when Ali Bracken slandered me as a terrorist. That was really funny! LOL!

      I will have justice in my case. The only question is whether it by a jury of 12 honest Irish men of honour and integrity or do I dispense summary justice myself. Amazingly I can not find 12 such men in Ireland.

      And yes…I think the three things you point our are real……which is a sad comment really.

  37. michaelcoughlan

    Hi Tomy brogan,

    I am s goldbugs ad you know. I am anticipating a retracement in gold shortly though. Here is as good an account I have read for the reason JFK lost his head and life in the deely plaza;

    12. JOHN F. KENNEDY

    The Federal Reserve completed their plan for the economic subjugation of the American people in 1964, one year after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Silver coin and certificates were still in general use; money that came from the government and was used free of interest. Since the money was something of value and owned by whoever held it, the banks made no profit off of the use of that money and more to the point, could not manipulate its value.

    Then President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order 11110 on June 4th, 1963. This order authorized the Treasury to issue a new government currency, the US Note, based on silver in Fort Knox, recycled from the huge magnets used in early Uranium enrichment at Oak Ridge. This allowed the Kennedy administration to purchase four billion dollars worth of goods and services without having to borrow the money from the Federal Reserve, and signaled Kennedy’s intention to restore the nations’ economic system to the model used by the Founding Fathers.

    • Tony Brogan

      And Robert Kennedy was the man behind the plan.
      Lincoln something just as threatening, Garfield too. Reagan was nearly done

      Do not threaten the powers of the bankers.
      Thanks for the above Michael. I can see we will have a good chat when we meet.
      I will be in Ireland a month to 6 weeks as of tomorrow.

      There is a reason that gold and silver are banned as state (currency)money in payment of debt by the EU. They can’t stand the competition. We as people can still use anything we wish as money but it is not mandated to be acceptable as payment of debt. However one can accept it if one wishes.

      Take care.

      • bonbon

        And never forget who was JFK’s counsel – none other than FDR’s wife.
        Lincoln was murdered, Garfield and JFK, Robert, MLK. FDR survived 5 attempts, succumbed to Polio complications. Linking all of them is Alexander Hamilton’s stroke of genius with the US Constitution. Each tried to counter WallSteet and its Andre Jackson predecessors. Obama in this light betrays what it means to be American. Reagan in 1983 did something stunning – he turned the tables on nuclear terror with SDI. Putin now responds with SDE.

        Who said this was academic?

    • cooldude

      Here is a chart that might interest you Michael. There is only one type of money fulfilling it’s role as a store of value and I am not talking about the elite’s monopoly money.
      http://goldsilver.com/article/race-to-debase-2000-2012-q3-fiat-currencies-vs-gold-and-silver-(4)/

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Michael,
      you can’t eat gold.

      When I had my house stolen off me and got a bill of about EUR50,000 for 25 years of work despite never earning less than AUD150,000 since 1994….hate filled, bigoted MEN laughed at me. For some reason MEN laugh at a man whose children are kidnapped and house stolen. Did you know that? Apparently men should “suck it up”, and “be a man” and “move on” and “get a life”. But we all know if a woman has a flat tire there is QUEUE of men to fix it….this is “equality”.

      Well I DID “get a life” and I am a very happy man. Since I knew WW III was planned I decided to live the last 4 years LIKE A KING.

      I also stopped to help other men as I felt was the right thing to do. But as you point out above…there is a real question as to whether Irish men are worth bothering about. (Australian men too by the way.)

      I have talked to ALL the Irish fathers groups in Ireland (and Australia). As has my Irish mate who was thrown in jail so many times. NONE of them are interested in remedy…they are ALL only interested in whining like little girls.

      Well? Now that it is clear the Irish economy is being crashed into the ground…which I knew would happen in the middle of 2008….these men who laughed at me are wondering what next.

      One thing that is next is “you can’t eat gold”. Further…the gold market is cornered….the Rothchilds control gold. Something most people do not know is that Ahmerdienerhjhad works for the Rothchilds and has been buying gold like it is going out of fashion. Putin also works for the Rothchilds……

      Yeeeeees…doesn’t THAT put a different spin on things eh? When the apparent “protagonists” work for the same people….what does THAT mean?

      I will tell you what it means…it means WW III and most of the gold is already hoarded….THAT is what it means. The only thing left to trade as money that will be reliable is silver…..and unless I am greatly mistaken…you can’t eat silver either.

      4 years ago I told people WW II was planned and coming and eminently avoidable. Two years ago I PROVED the remedy that would stop WW III in its tracks if used and end the war of fathers if used. People hated on me.

      Now? People are starting to finally realise just what a mess they are in and starting to “protest” in the street and “call for a revolution in Ireland”. These morons doing this have NO IDEA what is really happening. NONE AT ALL. Yet they are still to stupid and too arrogant to take advice from those of us who bothered to to our homework 4 years ago.

      It really is quite amazing. Do such people deserve anything other than abject slavery? I think not.

      So…Good luck eating gold and silver…let me know how you get on with that.

  38. Tony Brogan

    The Fed will write $1 trillion or more in checks over the next twelve months, the ECB will write the same,” Bill Gross, the founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, the world’s biggest bond funds, wrote via Twitter late on Sunday. “(There is) reflation ahead. (It) will create asset bubbles but little growth.”

    Bond bubble is made and baked. It will be over cooked with the QE to infinity. 2 trillion to start as above.
    Hyperinflation is on its way as soon as people say no to the euro and the US dollar.

    • bonbon

      And as that gathers momentum you will see political changes, now thought impossible, happening. Forget trends and linear sense-evident calculations – that is not the way history is made.

  39. There can be only one

    I know at times like this people talk of end times but my father who’s over 80 said to me the other day i feel like im back at the beginning of world war 2.He has the same vibes and remembers his mother saying these tough times cant last and then dad said the war started. I feel myself people should be stocking up as if this happens it will be quick.

    • bonbon

      Things have changed. Obama will use thermonuclear weapons unheard of in WWII. The target is again Russia though, and this time Putin says it very clearly for all to hear. Forget stocking up if Obama is allowed to stay in the Oval office. The main barrage would be over in about 60 minutes. Do not even try to imagine what that means for “survivors”.
      Now why did Clinton offer his support to get Obama elected again?

      • PeterAndrewNolan

        Correct…..all things necessary to start WW III are now in place….I have worked very hard to do my best to stop this but people hated on me for telling them what they can do to stop WW III. So if WW III happens? I know where I am going and I have a good chance of survival…certainly better than 99.9% of people living on a small island at the end of europe with nowhere to run to. The UK is going to be a wasteland if WW III starts.

        WW III will only be limited thermonuclear if at all….they make too much mess. The weapon of choice will be food……monsanto owes the only aluminium resistant seeds there are. All that aluminium that was dumped as chemtrails has been building up in the soil.

        You can debate economics until the cows come home. If monsanto owns the only seeds that will grow in the aluminium polluted soil? You have a real problem.

        I would not be that upset to see WW III. The west is a very man hating world today. Deeply evil. Only a deeply, deeply evil society would laugh at men committing suicide from criminal abuse and the theft of their children. Such a society should end. It is only right.

        I said publicly three years ago that the abuse of fathers was so bad that when the PTB crashed the global economy and started a global war that fathers would not defend the women and children because the women and children had betrayed fathers in such numbers. Well? How is all that betrayal of fathers looking now? Looking pretty stupid, eh?

        I have known about the plan to crash the global economy and start WW III for 4 years….people have hated on me and called me a nutter every step of the way for saying so.

        Well? With the pantomime in the UN last week? Is there ANY man on this page who thinks that WW III is not now ready to be launched? Any of you willing to look so stupid publicly? Surely Netan-yahoo and his little red line has killed off ALL DOUBT that israel has firm plans to attack Iran.

        We could have stopped WW III. We had the time. we had the remedy. We had everything we needed except men with guts. Now? I see no way to stop WW III starting…I only see a way to keep Ireland on the periphery and to keep Australia out of it……if people do not do as I advise pretty quick smart? Ireland and Australia will be involved in WW III quite significantly. There will be great loss of life among those people who hated on me. Gee. That’s bad luck, eh?

        You know what? I don’t see people laughing at me now. Not now that it is so clear the drums of war are beating so loud and the crashing of the global economy is so obvious…..the riots in spain over the last few days should put to rest any questions as to what is in store for the rest of europe.

        As I talk to people on line in Ireland now? That disgusting, bigoted, man-hating, overly satisfied smirk they had on their face four years ago when I told them how I was criminally victimised and how I told them that I was working on re-introducing the rule of law into Ireland how now gone.

        Even the most ignorant of men in Ireland now realise that there has been a massive criminal theft of Irish “money” by the criminals in the dail. And they are not so inclined to laugh at me because I am laughing right back at them…..I live in Germany now….I have a much better life than 99.9% of Irish people can look forward to…..and most of those bigots who hated on me know this. There is no smirk left in them.

        Now….gentlemen..I have created the remedies….I have proposed to thousands of Irish men to use them….they won’t.

        I wonder if Irish men are ever going to pick themselves up and actually use them. If never? Then they deserve everything they get and more.

        Welcome to WW III gentlemen. You got it because you chose to not do as I advised. Who is the “fool” now?

  40. Your opening question suggests that you are a self absorbed little boy. No-one cares if you are a voyeur or a lady boy or a transvestite and nor should they but it is interesting that you mention voyeurism as that is what I have always had
    you down as … a right wing limp wristed idealist getting his own back on
    boys who once made him feel small. It’s like looking through a sheet of glass. You know it, I know it and so do others

    “I know it’s not for everyone … but it makes for essential reading”

    A contradiction in terms expressed with the emotional intelligence of a
    schoolboy. Logic 101. Grab hold of your reality otherwise your words sound like nonsense peddled for the sake of anyone willing to offer you a paycheck

    Paychecks are the real motivation behind the article and public sector
    paychecks in particular. I put it to you that this is none of your business since
    it is not the public sector who pay your wages. You are just another right wing nut who wants to see the country dragged into the gutter and would rub your hands with glee witnessing such a dog fight. You are a blueshirt and like many of your posters you are all about yourself and to hell with any notion of society. Your silence says you are a blueshirt because anyone with alternative convictions would express outrage at the performance of this fascist government

    The bad news for you guys is that the red flag means something in Ireland and that it is not going away any time soon while you lot talk shite about where to stash your gold. You should all piss off and live in your tax havens, if they will have you, and you can stand the corruption

    You give me the impression that you enjoy witnessing the destruction of this right wing crap hole and that you are longing to see it continue. Uncle Miltie’s little helper and cashing in on the chaos. You sound sadistic and self absorbed to the point of detatchment. As long as you are making hay you can talk all day without uttering a sentence with substance. You are a beacon for right wing selfish ireland a minor icon of the zeitgeist, at best. Largely unheard and completely insignificant

    Fuck you and fuck you books and economic courses. Years ago all working class people improved their minds by reading. Today you are targeting a market of middle class fuckwits who never had a brain or any notion of princiuples in the first place. The types of wankers who need to attend courses rather than use their brains and think for themselves. Easy money. Like shootish fish in a barrel

    • Nawww Paul, you got it all wrong:

      It’s a one-off opportunity to get jargon free advice and an inside track on the way economics works in Ireland and around the globe.

      Places are strictly limited, so enroll now to avoid disappointment. Click on the ‘Buy Now’ button to purchase your place on the course.

      Don’t miss a one-off opportunity to study with IRELAND’S MOST INFLUENTIAL ECONOMIST

      See, first of all, it is only 1,000, peanuts.

      Second, hey, I mean, it is himself, DA MAN, on a stage, right? Hahaha!

      Last but not least, again:

      a one-off opportunity to get jargon free advice and an inside track on the way economics works in Ireland

      Yeah well, he got that right. Hahahaha!

      • Lol. I thought you’d be packing Georg since you have a long flight ahead of you.
        Maybe you don’t really wan’t to leave this band of brothers behind?

    • Morning Paul,

      I would have thought that you would have been celebrating Celtic’s victory in Moscow last night, but given that you decided to tell me what you thought of me, fair enough. I can’t help that and you are entitled to your opinion. I’m sure you are a decent sort but if you don’t like the site or my views, you don’t have to read them. I certainly don’t force you to come on here.

      Best

      David

      • I come here mainly to read the posts David and the reason is simple. They remind me that there are still people with balls in this country even though sometimes the flak is directed in my direction. Like you I can take it and think that debate and plain speaking is far healthier than the levels of limp wristed bs that we are subjected to constantly by insiders in the main stream media. Pravda is for simpletons

        Yes I celebrated Celtic’s win and got drunk as a lord. A man has to let off steam and judging from the above posts there is a helluva lot of anger building up on these hallowed boards and around the country. Just don’t be too surprised if it is sometimes directed at yourself sir. It’s not personal and if my comment offended you then I am sorry and hold my hands up and admit that I can be a fool sometimes. I am man with my faults just like any other but I am not a bad person. Maybe I expect too much from you but it is my contention that soon you will be forced to get off the fence and speak up. If you have a heart and a conscience that is

        I hate glaring contradictions. One the one hand we know that people are skint and becoming even more skint (budget 2013) yet they are forming queues to enrol on economics courses. Really. If that is the case then good luck but I don’t believe it. Even if it is true surely is lacks class and decorum by shouting about it when the place is riddled with the cancer of poverty

        Your article brought back memories of the Fine Gael idiot on Vincent Browne on Monday night telling us how we must support one of our junkie piller banks at whatever cost. It is he who should have been the target of my outburst and not yourself. It is people like he who could not care less for all the ills people are suffering. The suicides, the wife beating, traumatized children, addiction and loss of hope. The Irish establishment always were a heartless shower of bastards mind you. Just ask the 82,000 and the people who left in the 50s

        In previous times working men would meet in the evenings and discuss politics, economics and philosophy. They would exchange books. They had worn out clothes and empty bellies but they knew that education was the key to understanding societies ills. Proper education and not the shit they feed them in school and college today.

        All the education in the world is not worth a damn if all we are going to do is sit back and let this shower of despicable morons beat us down any further and fill us with their vile fascist propaganda. Don’t be mistaken because this is precisely what it amounts to – government by corporations and foreign cut throat speculators

        No economics course teaches this. The brutality of the world outside is a far cry from textbooks and the blackboard

        Welcome to Neo Con heaven Irish Brothers. It’s what you asked for. Wonderful life isn’t it?

    • cooldude

      Paul you need to grow up a little bit. It isn’t the public sector that supports me either but my taxes go to support it which is something I am fine with as long as things are making sense. As this article points out is is simple maths that this pension situation in the public sector is unaffordable. To call someone a right wing nutter for pointing out a simple fact shows your points are not in any way logical and you are simply having a personal attack on e person who provides a forum for people to debate economic issues. My own view is that our society is being consumed into a much more centralized one in which our personal freedom and our ability to think and act freely will come under increasing threat. Our monetary system and the constant booms and busts it creates is the basis of the control that is being exerted on us. That is why I have an interest in introducing competition in what we use as money. Because it takes away the elite banker’s power over us. That is the main reason I post here and I learn a lot from other posters. What suggestions have you got?

      • PeterAndrewNolan

        Hi Cooldude,
        the comments do not take links. My suggestion, indeed what I have created and am going to take forward is called “The Mens Business Association”. This is a lawful association (NOT LEGAL) in which men can do business outside the jurisdiction of any guvment.

        We will have our own man-bank, man-money, man-book, passports, courts, peace officers, private investigators. The works. It is already up and running with initial services. The first of which is to remove a man from the legal system back into the system of LAW. Second service is to open up swiss bank accounts to remove current assets from the jurisdiction of the criminals in the legal fraternity in any mans current jurisdiction.

        If any man in Ireland does not know that the guvment and legal fraternity are criminals they are welcome to read my two books to find that out. I have cases to put all members of both houses of the dail on trial but irish fathers are not willing to create new courts so Ireland is currently a lawless land with a state of war declared. Not good.

        • cooldude

          An interesting concept Peter and good luck with it. Unfortunately the Swiss franc is just another debt based, intrinsically worthless fiat currency so it does not fulfill the criterea I look for as a store of value. I prefer the more traditional money that is precious metals which have always held their value throughout history especially in times of impending currency crisis like we are currently experiencing. I know you believe you can’t eat precious metals and you are correct but Swiss francs are not very nutritious either. The reason I use precious metals to protect my family from the currency crisis that is now well underway is because they cannot be debased easily at the whim of some central banker unlike all our current unbacked paper currencies which are really just tokens of trust in our monetary system.
          I cannot comment on your statement that Iran is owned by the Rothschild family as you dont give any links but I do know that the state of Israel was promised to the Rothschild family by Lord Balfour in 1918 for loans made in the war. Another fact I am aware of is that Israel has loads of nuclear weapons and does not allow any UN inspections. Iran claim they have none and fully comply with any UN inspections. We live on extremely dangerous times and it would seem that Israel is very keen on creating a war with Iran even if they have to use a false flag event to create this situation.

          • bonbon

            As Bibi well knows the problem is Obama. For Bibi, because General Dempsey of the JCS has gone very public that the USA is not at Israel’s back if they try anything. Without the USA they have no chance.
            For Russia, Obama is problem number 1 – the abuse of the UN Sec. Council. is in danger of throwing all normal channels out the door. A veto is a veto. Syria is the red line. Putin knows full well and says is very clearly that any attempt at regime change in Syria or Iran will lead straight to nuclear war.
            So instead of hiding, face it : Obama is a deadly threat to the entire human species right now. Anyone who votes for him, or shows public support (Clinton) is complicit!

      • Grey Fox

        OBEY!
        STAY ASLEEP!
        DO NOT THINK!
        DO NOT USE YOUR IMAGINATION!
        STAY ASLEEP!
        OBEY!

  41. michaelcoughlan

    Hi JACKW.

    Set aside is nuts there is no doubt about it. It isn’t a conspiracy though to drive up commodity prices. It is a policy to protect farming incomes in Europe. The other part to set aside is that Europe wants to replace dear European food with cheaper African and south American imports. That docent get mentioned much.

    • JACKW

      Thanks for reply.

      Like I said Michael it’ll come back to 3 basic principles, FOOD, WATER and SECURITY. We should be doing our best as an island nation to guarantee all three for our current and future generations.

      The rest of the debate is just ones and zeros on a computer screen.

      Cheers.

  42. Philip

    When I read your column David,I have to point out that you are continually stating and leading us all to the obvious conclusion of negativity which then spawns many of the Armageddonesque narratives from the comments above (myself as well stands accused). If it is not Obama working for the drug pusher Queen Elizabeth, it’ll be FG/Lab as the Civil Servants of Brussels that’ll be the end of us all – let’s hope for a ring side seat to watch the action! The heart felt comments of personal experience are for me the real compass of what is happening.

    Now, I am not saying you are talking rubbish. But I think the slant you take might need adjustment to avoid predictability – if for no other reason, predictability is not a strength of economists or a characteristic of economic reality and it’s bad for your business. Again, I am not taking from the misery and mess we are in now – and neither am I saying we need to cheer up. But I would suggest we may need to look for counter-intuitive things happening that could be taking us all by surprise (positive or negative). A trivial example by way of analogy is the way they slowed down the traffic on the ring road for the M25 around London to reduce traffic jams and improve average speed.

    One of the key characteristics of the 90s and noughties was the level of waste, overstocking and perception of low risk. This extended into the financial sphere with the result today that AAA ratings are like confirmed UFO sightings. This in turn is now driving a massive deflationary effect on most finished goods and services as they hunt for cash strapped markets. The result is that the current supply chains which were internationally lobsided is now breaking down and so on etc..china goes bang, west stays in decline.. blah blah. But that is not the full story.

    Over the course of particularly the last 5 years, there has been a major push in businesses to eliminate risk. Businesses know that there is no credit anymore. Zero inventories, cash on delivery, end to end synced supply chains and most significantly a huge development on the science around support and maintenance – and most importantly, predictive problem detection. So what? This all sounds so distant from the guy who lost his job making widgets or whatever. It means every penny earned has next to no risk attached to it. It is sustainable – it is confident and that means you have a foundation. What’s more? The methods are scalable down to 1-2 man operations – and I am not talking about people who pull certifications issued by Goverment bodies that they are ISO or BS or whatever certified. I am saying e are emerging into a world where competence will win over qualification.

    Personally I predict a major resurgence in maintenance, repair and support activity – which is really all life is about anyway – which will have reputationally verifiable competence rather than baseless influential branding. This is the German way to some degree – but with steroids. Government as we know it cannot effect such a change and indeed will be severely threatened. As for debt? What debt? People in demand and indeed companies in demand by virtue of their reputation will define the currency – not the bankers. That has always been the way and it is going to be that way shortly.

    • bonbon

      In one way DMcW is right – the sheer horror of what is going on is kept hidden for the benefit of the 1%. They do not like to have these numbers all over the press. It must be done, done hard, and done often.

      The other side of this is best expressed by Percy Shelley in his Defense of Poetry :

      “At such periods there is an accumulation of the power of communicating and receiving intense and impassioned conceptions respecting man and nature”.

      http://www.bartleby.com/27/23.html

      People are simply unaware that such conceptions even existed after so long out of it. They are not in “the numbers”. As Goya painted, The Sleep of Reason breeds Monsters, that are now roaming.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sleep_of_Reason_Produces_Monsters

      People will rediscover what economics is all about – the future.

      Let’s keep this blog and others in Percy Shelley’s spirit! Banish Goya’s monsters.

      • Philip

        Look, It’s like this…either the world improves in which case DMW goes out of business and you shut up. OR
        the doo doo hits the fan and we are all curtains and tyhe 3rd rock from the sun keeps orbiting as usual.

        I am just telling David that the long term prospects for his business model is starting to look shaky either way and maybe he needs to be thinking about writing about a possible upswing.

        • bonbon

          Any “upswing” will be a conscious intervention, not “spontaneous” and unknowable. I have no idea what DMcW’s “business model” is.

          We have one, this :
          http://laroucheirishbrigade.wordpress.com/ireland-an-economic-revival/

          Alternatives such as “getting ahead of the game”, without massive intervention in the style of FDR, are doomed. The Triple Curve explains why in a beautifull graphic metaphor :
          http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2002/2903trip_curve.html
          To get ahead of any of those 3 curves ends you up where exactly? Intervention does not mean following those slopes – to change the arc of their trajectories must be the focus of all economic forecasting.

          • Philip

            Economic forecasting is like Astrology, except the latter is probably more reliable. Just because t-T to t0 is historically true, does not mean t0 to t+T will be true.

          • Philip

            Bonbon, if an upswing was not unknowable and utterly conscious, we’d all be rolling in it. QED.

          • bonbon

            Again, I emphasize this is not a “good room” chat. This is a real fight. It means people must abandon ecology for economy, dropping all “good room” green understandings, for the physical economy measured in anti-monetaristic terms. The Triple Cure metaphor makes it perfectly clear, the weakness of current “good room” chats, and the difficulty such have grasping what is going on. Once that begins, how and why intervention becomes clearer. The reason for the sheer paralytic bewilderment of most is the years of slumber, the inability of even well-intentioned demos to grasp a concept. Because of this tragic weakness, grasping at unknowable, spontaneous straws is expected.

          • Realist

            Looks like you are coming from the Marxists roots bonbon:

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Views_of_Lyndon_LaRouche_and_the_LaRouche_movement

            He rejects FREE TRADE, DEREGULATIONS and GLOBALISATION.

            Is this your economic view Bonbon??????

          • bonbon

            The mantra of Frau Merkel, „Den Euro in seinem Lauf hält weder Ochs noch Esel auf!“, Honneckers last words before the DDR Wall fell is the only Marxist mantra around.

            Wake up, the Cold war is long over! Rhetoric and opinions from that bygone epoch are a little dated.

            The Hayek recipes sound, I must say as frozen on the Cold War. To understand the arc of history takes us to the roots of Hayek’s monarchist POV, feudal, and totally incompetent in a modern agro-industrial world.

            I can post here if you will an interview with Hayek in 1983, where he explains in his own words. And his lectures at the London School of Economics.

            I take Alexander Hamilton’s and Arthur Griffith’s (founder of Ireland in case you did not know) exposee of British liberalism as particularly revealing. When it trotts out from the same stable, as Austrian School, one must wonder in awe at the breeding!

          • Realist

            Please provide the link to Hayek’s words so we can discuss it :)

    • StephenKenny

      As you say, this would be very counter-intuitive. The world has been moving in the direction of ever greater specialisation, automation, and therefore division of labour, for several hundred years.

      As far as the west is concerned, we’ve already reached the phase of full automation of the ‘our’ productive needs, in as much as happenings in China and Vietnam are never more than just vague news.

      After this, we have activity based on political belief, rather than on demand, giving us an aphid-like growth of social-administrative bureaucracy filling the void.

      So my prediction is for the continuing growth of an ever more litigious, safety obsessed, administration heavy, society, accompanied by the final disappearance of both the search for truth, and the striving for excellence.

      • Philip

        You could be right and indeed, if you listen to the news, all you hear are commentators, consultants and advisers for our ignorant elite, your conclusions are all the more understandable. All I can say is that listening and actively seeing is a very difficult thing to do and the media is the worst place for it.

        The employment prospects are morphing to maintenance and support and the quality is becoming the defining factor to a level that makes mass marketing of commodity irrelevant. We are entering the era of the retrofit and reputation based economy.

        I’ll give you a small example. You buy a car today and there is hardly a mechanic who’ll know how to fix it unless they are seriously capitalized. That forces a dependency on quality specialization. Already there are guys out there for over a decade doing nothing but fuel systems for automobiles. That the type of economic tapestry that is emerging. And it will emerge in so called consumer goods like TVs, washing machines etc. The day of the cheap generics is over. Personalization an long term quality. And I think the Paddies are perfectly geared for it.

        Competition will take on a new guise. Competition will be on who can minimise the risk for a long term buy?

        As for debt in Euros…let me put it this way…you become the goto guy of choice and say you are a million in debt…all that’ll happen is we will come up with another form of legal tender. I bet there is already a Paypal typoe operation that is making this possible. And woe to anyone who tries to interfere becasue they risk loosing all to another country who have a more flexible approach to hat legal tender really is.

      • bonbon

        …and disappearance the pursuit of happiness. We are heading for a gov’mint of the 1%, for the 1%, and by the 1%, where life of the 1%, liberty for the 1% and property of the 1%, is guaranteed by the 99%.

        It is as if Britain’s Confederacy with John Locke’s constitution morphed into Sir Oswald Mosley’s USE !

        They should honestly change EU flag to the Stars and Bars. Lady Ashton would like that.

  43. bonbon

    Yet again London, the center of the financial Empire, with every single scandal originating there. Lehmann, MF Global, LIBOR, JPMC …
    ———–
    Deutsche Bank Trader and Others Charged with Insider Trading

    Oct. 2, 2012 (EIRNS)–Four men have been charged by Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) with “conspiracy to insider deal” between Nov. 1st, 2006, and March 23rd, 2010. Martyn Dodgson, a senior corporate broker and former Deutsche Bank employee, and Andrew Hind, Benjamin Anderson, and Iraj Parvizi have been released on bail, pending hearings at the Westminster Magistrates Court on October 19, 2012.
    The charges arise out of Operation Tabernula, long-running joint investigation between the FSA and the Serious Organized Crime Agency (SOCA). Operation Tabernula is the FSA’s largest and most complex insider-dealing investigation to date. More individuals remain under investigation, and can be expected to be charged as well.
    ———

    Operation Tabernula – does it mean turn the tables?

  44. michaelcoughlan

    Hi PeterAndrewNolan,

    Your points are very interesting and insightful. The trouble is that you present your arguments here in a manner which would lead one to believe you are a raving lunatic. Calm down and be polite and concise. I am very interested to read more posts from you. What books have you written and have you a website for your business association?

    Regards,

    Michael.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Hi Michael,
      “The trouble is that you present your arguments here in a manner which would lead one to believe you are a raving lunatic. ”

      Actually. I reject that totally. The problem is that 99.9% of Irish women and 99% of Irish men openly support the crimes of perjury, kidnapping, extortion theft and child abuse. Do you think I was so blunt 4 years ago when bringing up this subject?

      Be polite? No. F*** off. Where Irish people “polite” to me? Are Irish people “polite” to the tens of thousands of other irish men who have been similarly victimised? No. They are not. So under “do unto others” I will return the same level of “polite” I have received these last FIVE years. I will return the same level of “respect” I have had these last FIVE years.

      When you man hating Irish people actually start to think about “thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour” and “thou shalt not steal” and remedy crimes against fathers AS A RIGHT THAT IN INALIENABLE maybe I will be “polite”, maybe I will be a bit more respectful.

      But while men LAUGH at MEN KILLING THEMSELVES and other men stay silent? No. I will NOT be “polite”. I will not be “respectful” because these are not being shown to me or to the tens of thousands of other men in a similar position.

      Here is a question for you.

      What good is it a lad going to David course on “economics” when he can be openly criminally victimised and have all the proceeds of his labour stolen? And if he “complains” that he was criminally victimised he will be told “now don’t be disrespectful to those who robbed you, now don’t you be impolite to those who laugh at you”

      And that is EXACTLY what I am telling young men in Ireland. I am telling them that if they work hard, make something of themselves, they can be robbed blind and 99.5% of Irish people will HATE ON THEM if they “complain”.

      Here is another question for you. Would you tell a woman who has been raped, had VIDEO evidence of the rape, who has been HATED ON FOR FIVE YEARS as a victim of RAPE, who has been further slandered and victimised to be “polite” as she presented her case asking for justice to be done?

      And if not then you are a man hating, sexist, discriminatory, bigot. I should not even have to ASK for justice when the crimes are perjury and stealing. YOUR BIBLE TELLS YOU WHAT TO DO.

      Lastly. My oldest brother was, at one time, the highest paid programmer in Australia. At 34 he quit working. Since the he has worked one day a week on the local sales yards in Wagga, our home town.

      In divorce my father said to me “I would have thought Chris could have made more of himself”

      I said “You mean like go to university, get a job with IBM, rise to the top of his profession world wide, raise four children, renovate two houses and be one of the most successful people ever to be born in this town…..only to have his wife lie about him, have his children stolen, have his house stolen, and have his OWN FATHER tell him that is just bad luck and he should move on? Do you mean he should have done THAT with himself?”

      My father was suitably admonished for his hatred of his son. By the way? I refused to attend my mothers funeral and I will refuse to attend my fathers funeral. I refuse to have anything to do with anyone I used to know who does not condemn perjury, kidnapping, extortion, theft and child abuse. Since 99.5% of Irish people openly condone these crimes? Good luck talking about economics when you are morally bankrupt and the young men are finding this out in droves.

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Michael,
      “What books have you written and have you a website for your business association?”

      I have written two books. They are feely available on the web. “Living Free in the Femnazi World” and “The Truth Be Told”. TTBT has had more than 3,000 downloads now.

      Just google “crimes against fathers” or “The mens business association” and you will find these. Everything I have produced is freely available.

      I spent EUR300,000 on getting this information out for the benefit of other men. I have been heavily criminally victimised by your guvment for doing so. But they are too scared to arrest me. I know how to deal with criminals in guvment.

      In my real life I am one of the top Business Intelligence consultants in the world and I chose to sink quite a bit of money into HELPING OTHER MEN.

      I am now doing a “sideline” of getting the Mens Business Association off the ground….but men are too cowardly to want to stand up to their guvments so it is slow going…hence going back to my real job for a while and selling my software.

      Men are simply not used to a man telling the truth plainly and bluntly. They much prefer the soothing lie to the uncomfortable truth. Good luck to them with that.

      “Living Free” shows you how to remove yourself from the jurisdiction of any guvment. The Irish and Australian guvments have a real problem that I have proved that it is possible to deny their jurisdiction. That means no income taxes, no alimony, no child support…no legislated payments of any kind. They are all voluntary and LF tells you how to not volunteer…it is FREE and has been out for 2 years.

      I am now currently running a case in Germany to prove that the german courts have no jurisdiction over me. The germans are not best pleased about that.

      The MBA will have a bank, its own currency, its own passports, courts, peace officers, contracts, adjudication services…the LOT. I have been working three years to get the world passport accepted by Ireland, UK, Germany, Australia. Once the world passport is accepted any MBA member can travel and live anywhere we have negotiated the passport be accepted and work there. We do not accept guvments have any right to control us with work permits, travel permits, residency permits. I recently noticed more than 800 politicians around the world that this was the case. NONE objected.

      The solution is not to change the guvment. The solution is to ignore the guvment and create an entirely separate jurisdiction in which to run business.

      Everything is now set up. Perhaps a man like David would like to talk about solving the economic issues for those men who want to solve them by leaving the current economic system all together.

      I recommend to every lad I talk to that the best option is to LEAVE the current economic system because it is criminally rigged.

      Our courts and peace officers will provide the protection of the law, meaning natural law, to any associate who pays for it…..MBA is a user pays association…not room for parasitic freeloaders. That is what the welfare state is for…and you have seen how well that works out, right?

      This is a BOLD IDEA whose time has come. And only the best and brightest will come into it. That is fine by me.

  45. bonbon

    London’s {Economist} Sees Steinbrück Backing Ring Fencing Bank Separation

    Oct. 2, 2012 (EIRNS)–The London-based financial weekly has the following assessment on the “bank separation” plan of Peer Steinbrück, the German Social Democrats’ most likely candidate for Chancellor in the next national elections in 2013.
    “Mr. Steinbrück favors a holding-company structure along the lines suggested by Britain’s Independent Commission on Banking (known as the Vickers Commission) and by a paper written in 2009 for the OECD, a think-tank of mostly rich countries. A non operating holding company would invest capital in separate subsidiaries, one specializing in investment banking, the other in commercial and retail banking.
    “These subsidiaries would be separately capitalized and funded, with only limited scope for shunting funds or assets between the two. Investors could buy bonds issued by either, or shares in the holding company. They could thus choose whether to have exposure to the volatile investment bank, the steadier commercial and retail bank, or buy shares reflecting the diversified risk of the entire group. It would mean that the commercial and retail bank, with its reliance on insured retail deposits, would not be liable for the gambling debts of investment bankers.”

    • StephenKenny

      Were

      “It would mean that the commercial and retail bank, with its reliance on insured retail deposits, would not be liable for the gambling debts of investment bankers.”

      actually true, then there would be no advantage to having a group in the first place.

      Anyone who’s worked in this sector for more than about 20 years, or knows it’s history, knows that the Vickers Commission recommendations are just a set of rules that will be as ineffective as they sound impressive. They do everything except regulate properly the only thing that needs to be well regulated: the so-called ‘investment banks’.

      The whole reason for demise of the commercial banks, in the 1970s and 80s, was the rise of the (comparatively) well regulated capital markets, who, to coin a phrase, ate the commercial bank’s lunch. Loans to companies no longer had to go through layers of commercial banking managers – all out playing golf after a three hour lunch – in a very ‘one-by-one’ way, but were granted by a market of many participants, in a tenth of the time, at a tenth of the cost.

      The retail banks were killed off by the last real innovation anywhere in banking, the ATM supported by computerised back office administration. This, along with the rise of the paradigm of equality, has meant that computer algorithms are the only legitimate method for deciding whether a loan can or cannot be offered.

      In reality, banking is going the same way as the telephone companies.

      • bonbon

        Yes, correct. Vicker’s Plan has been criticized even by Volcker very recently. It is the OECD plan now. It can not work as stated. Citigroup’s Sandy Weill is very clear about this.

        The important point is that even the mention of splitting banks, up to now taboo in Germany, is now in full breakout. Everyone knows Glass-Steagall is the full story. It has become an election topic in Germany – Trennbanksystem !!!

        Hard work, persistent leafletting and campaigning by people with no gold, only motivation and ideas, does pay off. Time to increase the pressure! Turn up the heat.

      • bonbon

        That Deutsche Bank scandal posted above will definitely help to make banking an election issue. Of course there is no guarantee, finance will try to topple anyone who takes away their toys, as the did President Wulff recently.

        People here sometimes think this is a “good room” chat!

  46. gizzy

    I’m a firm believer that the financial outcomes lag activity in a business or economy by about two years. What are we looking at in two years if you project forward. This years figures really do not tell the real story

    Peter Andrew Nolan I have regularly commented here that the professionals in this country are up to their necks in the destructionof this country. They advised everybody. I am sorry for your situation but the law here operates in its own world and is so wound tightly around how everything here is done.

    The country is collapsing and PWC are looking for 250 graduates. They need more bean counters to count less beans or they think the State gravy train is not finished yet.

    • bonbon

      PWC took all Arthur Anderson staff who compiled the ENRON swindle onboard. They must be good at cooking books. The financial empire is doing its books as it crumbles. Reminds me of Gibbon’s 1776 “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”, the blueprint for the British Empire newly created in 1763, commissioned by the Company, to find a way to have a 4th Empire and not collapse as all did before. Maybe PWC has to find a way now.
      An army of PWC bookkeepers cannot stop the fall of this 4th Roman Empire.

  47. On my way to Northern Territories

    While some of you know I am in Donegal, which already is way up NW Ireland the title might be reason for confusion.

    I am off to Darwin, which is the capital city of Australia’s Northern Territory. :)

    It was a pleasure exchanging ideas and thoughts with you Ladies and Gentlemen. I hope that those who stay behind in Ireland will find a better future, but personally, I doubted this very much so, hence my move, like so many others.

    Last but not least, as much as I loved Donegal, I am kinda tired of rain, and already in an age where you start to cherish every sunny day.

    All my best, and do take care!

    Peace
    Georg

    • Grey Fox

      BEST WISHES FOR YOUR FUTURE GEORGE, YOUR CONTROBUTIONS WILL BE MISSED! MAYBE YOU CAN CONTINUE FROM YOUR NEW HOME. PEACE

    • gizzy

      Good luck George

    • coldblow

      Auf wiedersehen Georg

      I think I may have found some clues about the “Nexus”. Perhaps you might find the letter buried in the swamps of Oz. Hope you get to it before the hulking albino:

      “Unfounded reports began to circulate in Dublin that the process was being deliberately delayed in response to a request made at the highest level by the Catholic Church. An Irish opposition deputy, Pat Rabbitte, then referred in parliament to the possible existence of a document that would ‘rock the foundations of this society to its very rootsÂ’. He apparently had in mind the rumoured existence of a letter written by the Primate of All Ireland, Cardinal Cathal Daly, to the attorney general in Dublin. In this letter the Cardinal had supposedly interceded on behalf of Father Brendan Smyth and requested the delay in his extradition which had in fact taken place.

      “No evidence has been produced that any such letter ever existed. Yet, as a direct result of the rumours which now swept the country, confidence in the ruling establishment was undermined and the Fianna Fail government of Albert Reynolds fell, amidst talk of a dark conspiracy involving politicians, members of Opus Dei, the Knights of Columbus and others.”

      http://www.richardwebster.net/brynestynireland.html

    • Dorothy Jones

      Best of Luck Georg, wir bleiben im Kontakt…

    • Thanks Folks, best of luck to you too!

    • PeterAndrewNolan

      Georg,
      “I am off to Darwin, which is the capital city of Australia’s Northern Territory. :)”

      Just remember that in Darwin you can be jailed for “rape” if you have consensual sex and the woman later decides she wants to criminally victimise you. You will spend 6 to 12 months in jail awaiting trial even if you are innocent.

      Enjoy Australia dude. It is a totalitarian police state where women can incarcerate men and destroy their lives based on false allegations and very frequently do.

      Yes. I am Australian.

      • No offense, you need help Peter, and there is help, you just have to take it.

        Take care.

        • PeterAndrewNolan

          georg,
          I hope you are falsely accused by a woman, spend 6 months in jail, get depressed and kill yourself.

          Men like you disgust me. You LAUGHED at the fact Irish men kill themselves every day from the criminal victimisation they are subject to.

          And other people here are just as disgusting not to call that the HATRED it is.

          Would you publicly LAUGH at a woman who was a victim of the crime of rape? No. You are a man hating bigot. I will past your comments to CAF Australia. Then when people google your name in Darwin when they meet you t hey will see you for the man hater you are.

          Our man haters forum is very popular with google. Searches for mens names who have been identified as man haters come up very high on google results pages.

    • cooldude

      Good luck with your new adventure George. I have always enjoyed your comments even the ones I didn’t agree with.

    • whatamess

      there are internet connections Darwin too … don’t disappear…you would be missed..

      plenty of sunscreen Mr.Baumann ….enjoy

      gudddayy

  48. michaelcoughlan

    Hi Bonbon,

    Re: The failure of Enron; did you not hear that Jamie Oliver is now offering courses in accountancy?

    “Only Jamie Oliver cooks the books better”

    Enjoy,

    Michael.

    • bonbon

      So PWC could offer cooking courses! Boiled Euro notes with bio-diesel dressing. Bound to turn up on IT serious economics pages!

  49. Grey Fox

    The rewards meted out to the Public Trustee’s who destroyed the Irish economy and more importantly as a result, continue to destroy the moral and social fabric of our little country…

    Annual Pensions

    Bertie Ahern €152,331.66

    Brian Cowan €151,061.77

    Mary Harney €129,805.67

    Dermot Ahern €119,177.67

    John O’Donoghue €119,177.67

    Noel Dempsey €119,177.67

    Sean Treacy €119,177.67

    Joe Walsh €119,177.67

    Mary O’Rourke €117,981.01

    Frank Fahey €113,341.35

    It is important to be reminded of these specimen examples regularly, it is also important to remember that the incumbent (bent)government are feathering their individual nests to the same level hence the reason why they have no empathy for the plight of the ordinary person, they are completely insulated from any discomfort and wield their most effective weapon — “the thick neck” with extraordinary dexterity.

    To rephrase a line from a popular song by the Rubberbandits:

    “F@&k your honda civic, I’ve a horse outside”

    I would rewrite it as follows:

    “FECK YOUR CIVIC DEMOCRACY, I’VE A MERC OUTSIDE”

    • molly

      Where’s the real change we where told would happen.
      Somebody needs to get out a giant knife a cut cut cut.
      If the government want me to be put in charge of cuts I will show them what the true meaning of cuts should be.

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