June 25, 2012

Its 1944 all over again

Posted in Sunday Business Post · 164 comments ·
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I am standing outside Selfridges on Oxford Street watching the world go by. What a world it is! There goes an Arabic woman in half hijab with Gucci sunglasses propped on her covered head, carrying two pairs of designer shoes in her distinctive yellow Selfridges bag. Beside her, four Chinese women are similarly laden down, tourists from everywhere are shopping for everything, while London’s newest ethnic minority, the emigré French middle class, can be heard over everyone.

Is it any wonder that retail sales in Britain bounced strongly in May, with all these people fighting each other in the narrow passage that is Oxford Street?

This zone of London is the ‘ground zero’” of globalisation where goods from everywhere are sold to people from everywhere in a shopping frenzy of everything.

While they carry on obliviously, the frenetic shoppers seem to have no idea what is coming down the road financially or what effect the malignant coincidence of a growth slump in China, a fading recovery in America and Europe’s debt crisis will have on their world.

Let’s deal with China first.

Isn’t it interesting that the only big central bank to slash rates recently in the face of economic crisis has been China?

The ECB is talking about it and will probably introduce another massive bout of easy financing for the banks in the next few weeks, likewise the Federal Reserve. But the Chinese have already acted. Why?

The reason is that the Chinese economy is slowing much more quickly than anyone had expected. The massive property bubble that has been building in China is now reversing – and quickly.

In China, now that the Communist Party has abandoned all its Maoist rhetoric, the only slogan giving it legitimacy is growth. And if growth falters, the Party falters too.

The tricky problem for China is that a faltering investment boom – unlike a faltering consumption boom – can’t be easily reversed by cutting interest rates. If the problem is over-capacity, building more in response to lower interest rates will only produce more capacity, exacerbating the original problem.

Last Thursday, data for the Chinese manufacturing sector, the HSBC PMI Index, recorded its eighth successive monthly decline. On the international markets, the gold sell-off continues, while oil is below $80 a barrel for the first time in eight months.

This sharp slowdown in China is happening at the same time as the US employment recovery – essential for the re-election prospects of Obama – is now fading away.

This means that, while the Federal Reserve may well slash rates, there is a growing sense that the effect of more cuts in nominal rates at a time when real rates are negative is limited.

Look at the following recent releases for May in the US: average earnings minus 0.2 per cent, retail sales minus 0.2 per cent, industrial production minus 0.1 per cent, housing starts minus 4.8 per cent, consumer confidence minus 5.5 per cent and car sales minus 4.5 per cent. What does that tell you about the US recovery?

Of course, we head back to Europe and the extraordinary situation where the only hope that the Europhiles now appear to be clutching at is that the Germans will blink first and bail everyone out. In Spain and Italy, huge problems are being beset by the fact that growth is close to zero while yields are above 6 per cent. There is little chance of either country financing themselves in the months ahead.

Just digest the next fact for a second. In the next year, Italy has to refinance existing debts to the tune of 29 per cent of its GDP. Why would the Germans, who saw their own manufacturing index contract for the third straight month last week, underwrite all this?

Even if they did, prompting the biggest bull market in Spanish and Italian bond markets in years and a massive bear market in Germany’s bond market, it still wouldn’t solve the core of the competitiveness problem. Spain and Italy can’t compete with Germany, full stop. But looking at Spain and Italy misses the point.

There is a very high likelihood that the financial battleground in Europe will follow what I call the ’1944 pattern’.

The 1944 pattern will be a significant battle in Italy superseded by a massive attack on Germany via France. In 1943, the Allies attacked Germany through Italy, but the big invasion was via D-Day and through France.

France is the real weak link, because this country is pretending that it is a slightly shabby version of Germany. It is anything but. Its banking system is very fragile, it runs a large current account deficit and, while politically strong, it is economically weak.

The 1944 pattern will go something like this: Spain and Italy will be locked out of the market in due course (as we have been saying here for a long time). Then Germany’s vulnerability will be on her western borders with France. As French yields rise, Germany will have to decide if she should risk everything for France. The average German will say ‘no way’, but the politicians and strategists deep inside the German establishment will say yes. They are naturally – and for good reason – wedded to the central pillars of EU integration.

Then the discussion will move to the compromise. German politicians will realise that they can save France only by abandoning Italy and Spain. In addition, they can only sell the deal of saving France and the euro to the German people if they make abandoning Spain and Italy a condition of that deal.

As the summer of 2012 rumbles on and defences are broken, just like the summer of 1944, the German high command will not want to be fighting war on two or three fronts.

Globally, with China turning down rapidly – as it will, because a bubble is bursting in the Middle Kingdom, and the US economy is possibly even tipping into negative territory – the Germans will realise that they can’t bank on external support, meaning they will have to act. Remember, they are acting, not to save France or Spain or Italy, but to protect Germany and German savers from having their savings plundered by foreigners.
This is the big one.

All the while, the shoppers of Selfridges spend on, oblivious to what is coming down the line.


  1. EddieN

    Adam – Subscribe.

  2. mcsean2163

    Oblivious or indifferent?

  3. NeilW

    “Remember, they are acting, not to save France or Spain or Italy, but to protect Germany and German savers from having their savings plundered by foreigners.”

    German savers that have not earned their savings – since they are ultimately backed by debts that cannot (and therefore will not) be repaid.

    The decision is whether to validate these savings with new money from the ECB, or let them disappear from the balance sheet alongside the unrepayable debt.

    This crisis will only be resolved when the excess savings issue is dealt with.

  4. Its time to visit your independent local movie DVD provider and request all old WW2 movies and sample what is yet to arrive soon on your doorstep and better again try to seek foreign language versions/ productions as they have a non hollywood version of events and are very original .

  5. joe hack

    If people don’t spend then there can be no incomes- low wages creates depressions 1929 is an example of a low wage depression- the German doctors austerity medicine is now infecting its host – the contagious austerity virus is now infecting Germany.

    The inevitable has happened, those countries living austere lives will not be running out to buy luxury BMWs or other unnecessary manufactured goods from Germany, The slump in sales in the Dublin branch of the Swedish giant IKEA is a good example unnecessary goods.

    David,

    if are you suggesting that the people in Oxford street should stop shopping and save this would be a contradiction, or is it just a observation, people watching is a good hobby it enriched the mind.

    Maybe some of those people in Oxford Street are buying Irish?

    • CitizenWhy

      Merkel and her cohorts in Germany wrongly belive that the hyperinflation in Germany in the 20s gave rise to Hitler. In fact it was the deflation of the 30s. They are blind to the dangers of deflation. Equivalent Terms: Deflation = austerity = high unemployment = less spending = fewer jobs = more deflation. And the answer is austerity?

      • Tony Brogan

        The boom of the 20′s gave rise to the bust of the thirties so one might conclude that the rise of Hitler was spawned in the 20′s
        It is inflation that is to be feared as it gives rise to the following deflation.
        mild deflation is actually beneficial to a community unlike mild inflation. The former indicates inprovements in the efficiencies of an economy and all become better off. Mild inflation on the other hand is a stealth tax that affected the lowest on the totem pole more then others. All become poorer and the poor more affected than others.

    • Tony Brogan

      People can not spend what they do not have. False prosperity was built on excess debt. now most people can not afford the debt payments so how will they have any spare to buy anything. The debt trap.

      As always there are some not affeced or who have savings who can continue spend.

      the crisis will not be resolved until the debts are.

      The bust is the result of the previous excess spending boom.

      • joe hack

        hello Tony,

        over the last 100 years gold has lost value in comparison to the paper stuff now I going to sound like Bonbon no harm. The value of 1oz of gold was at $20.67 in the USA FDR he forced his people to sell their gold when he collected all of the people gold at the fixed price of$20.67 he had it all stashed away in the knocks it allowed the price gold to fluctuate the price rose to free market value of $35 some tax eh.

        If you had $35 in gold 1oz in 1933 and $35 of the paper stuff and left the cash in a bank you would have more paper stuff that you would get for your 1oz of gold even at today prices which have gone five fold in as many years.

        If you had bought a house in 1933 with your $35 or even a site at the glass bottle company well your site or home could be worth millions even hundreds of millions back in 2007 when gold was around $350.

        • Tony Brogan

          Hi Joe
          “If you had $35 in gold 1oz in 1933 and $35 of the paper stuff and left the cash in a bank you would have more paper stuff that you would get for your 1oz of gold even at today prices which have gone five fold in as many years.”

          So one ounce of gold in 1933 was $35. and both are left in a bank or saved.
          One ounce of gold is now valued in $us at about 1600
          So it is 47.71 times more US dollars today.
          how did the $35 in cash in the bank grow? Are you talking compound interest?If so the average treasury bond rate is 4% approx 35 in 1933 grew to 1767 at 4% so in that regard you are correct. one can pick ones entry spots. Using the $20.67 it compounds to $1044.
          Leaving your $35 notes in a box they are worthless in buying pwer equalling about 4% of the 35 or $1.40 in buying power.
          So, gold maintained its purchasing power even though it is totally manipulated by central banks and governments. At present there is no way of discovering value or an ounce of gold except to say that as all the manipulation is to try to undermine the value then it is worth more than currently assigned.
          all I can say is that the market forces will eventually overwelm the manipulation (as it did prior to 1933 and also 1972) and there will be an event that propels the price multiples higher than it is today. There will be true price discovery.
          Taking all the known amount of fiat currency in existance and deviding by ythe known ounces of gold reveal prices in the 40,000 to 100,000 per ounce in US dollars. so even using fractional reserve accounting of ten to one suggests a price in $us of 4000-10,000 per ounce.
          At the current rate of QE which is in the trillions and likely quadrillions by bet is that 20- 100,000 per ounce is in the cards the next few years.
          silver at 10:1 ratio to gold looks even more volatile, going from 30 an ounce to up to $10,000 an ounce.
          I do not trust the paper currency which will inflate(devalue) to zero over the next few years.I would rather trust commodity money.

          Bying a house and living in it is a good move. Having land to produce some food is good too. Choices, choices.

          CCheers
          T

        • Tony Brogan

          Hi Joe

          http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

          Just for the record . You will see that in 2007 the gold price went from 600-800 dollars and not your suggested $350.

          Here is a chart for 1975 to present.

          http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

  6. bannerboy

    Interesting stuff, and it seems to me that David has backed up his contentions well. My mind, after reading something like this always asks the question, “How can I protect my savings etc. from this seenario?” It seems that no matter where we turn we are faced with peril. A euro breakup seems likley but do we put our money into US dollars or Sterling or something else? Maybe the folks on Oxford street are right, spend it all on designer hats have no money left to worry about!

    • Cassandra

      There you have it. Well said. Spend your savings on ‘stuff’. Then no worries about keeping it safe (cause you won’t be able to) Buy a piano, learn to fly, travel the world. If you have enough to go around save your extended family, but their mortgages off them, pay for nephew’s/niece’s education…Make life long dreams a reality.

    • Tony Brogan

      All fiat currencies are in a competative devaluation race to the bottom. inflation guaranteed.
      Get real money, gold and silver to retain buying power. Pay off debts.

      • bannerboy

        Going to buy porperty, apparently is’s a good time to buy according to the central bank, the construction federation etc.. lol!! Seriously though, if the country weren’t so screwed and real selling prices so opaquae it would be an option for a lot of people. I’d be afraid of gold, it’s price is only maintained by it’s status as a safe haven, once that perception changes I think it’s price could collapse…

        Just read a few of your other posts Tony, you really like gold! Maybe I’m wrong on the whole safe haven and perception thing..

        • Tony Brogan

          Hi Bannerboy
          As I posted above.
          If you need a house and can buy one , it will do you no harm if you can pay the payments or have it paid off. Same for land to feed yourself.
          gold is manipulated and underpriced and misunderstood by most.
          IIt will be many times higher than toady’s value. $4000 minimum. silver $200 minimum.Jusy my opinion based on a lot of reading.

          Best
          Tony

  7. CitizenWhy

    The US jobs recovery is not quite fading away. The biggest loss of jobs since Obama has taken office has been in state and local governments. Private sector jobs have increased. They are now increasing at a slower pace than in previous months, but they are increasing. This is happening despite then determination of the Republicans in Congress to cripple the economy so Romney can win.

    As for Chine, some of its moves to make cheap money availalble are due to cronyism – taking care of badly managed businesses owned and run Communist Party hacks. Some is also due to the fact that China’s banks are not healthy and have not been for many years. The export boom masked many of the severe economic problems in China. Its slowdown is unmasking the distortions and inefficiencies and injustices that are built into the way China is governed.

  8. Adam Byrne

    subscribe.

  9. John Q. Public

    The pigs countries should form a pact. We need to combat Germany together and reform the debt arrangements. America can print dollars to pay off it’s debts as Joseph Stiglitz pointed out recently but Europe as a whole can’t. We just have individual states owing each other money. Our ECB can’t take the same action as the FED can in America. Lack of cohesion and political is the problem.

    • joe hack

      Yes this may be our next referendum- political integration in some form and soon, the sad part is that we will be minors in the structuring of it or we may have a referendum to leave euro but based on previous referendums that is unlikely to be passed at least at present.

      There is no mechanism to be thrown out so we would have to have a referendum.

    • Tony Brogan

      Ireland needs its own currency to enable its own monetary policy.

  10. piombo

    David,
    Enjoy Regensberg, a very beautiful city with a wonderful univeristy.
    While you are in D-Land you might want to meditate upon the fact that this time around it is Germany that is under attack from the “allies” and not viceversa.
    I agree that Germany will choose France over Italy and Spain for political and military reasons (France has the nukes while Spain has none and Italy’s ones are under the control of the US bases here in Italy).
    I am looking forward to the Italian exit from the Euro as it will allow us here in the North to rebase our prices and compete once more with Germany as used to be the case.
    The Italian State will start printing money again to pay for the overblown state apparatus and the social welfare in the south. Fair enough, wages will drop and Italy starts to sell cars and light engineered products accross Europe not to mention the tourism.

  11. rebean

    So gold is on the way down now and oil is too. Seems the markets are up/down/up/down and round and round. The markets have become a problem and the greed is taking its toll. Debt is basically sloth and denial. It is a result of lack of effort and lost opportunities. It arrives after bad management and financial planning.
    The so called experts thought they could throw out all the economic models and replace them with a nouveau policy. A policy of easy livin and bonuses for all regardless of effort. Now we have all to play catch up, work harder for less, work till your 80 , save hard, and just about everything else to cover for the idiots running the show

    • joe hack

      David,

      Gold goes up in price when fear is in plentiful supply;

      1.
      If the downward price of gold continues could this not mean that the fear is subsiding?
      2.
      If lack of panic is not a factor in the price drop of gold, is it being manipulated by governments or others? QE

      The value gold could be predicted by measuring people’s anxiousness;

      It could be called “the anxiety Index” or “the angst index”

      The cure, add lithium to the water supply in stock exchanges and others.

      • Cassandra

        Gold is just another asset. The price of all assets will fall in the depression. Profitable portfolios are liquidated to pay for losing ones. The luxury of investing based on a rationale, i.e. buy gold as a safe haven play, will disappear.

        Run, run. Get out, get out!

        • Tony Brogan

          Gold is not just another asset.
          It is money. Always has been and always will be.
          Those that run from gold will be bust.
          Everyone in the world except westerers are acquiring gold. Westerners will be broke compared to the rest.

          • rebean

            If I had enough gold I would sell it and buy a fishing boat or a plot of fertile land. What good is gold when you are hungry? I think gold is overestimated. I think the gold hype was another bubble.A windmill in your back garden might be another option

          • Tony Brogan

            Hi Rebean
            Well gold is money and so you can buy a fishboat or some food with it if you wish
            if you have what you need and want to save for a rainy day it is my opinion that of all the currencies gold will be the last one standing as the fiat is inflated to nothing.

      • Tony Brogan

        Gold and silver are in a primary bull trend as they have been the last 12 years. There is a current retrenchment within that bull trend providing an opportunity to purchase at a lower entry point.
        Soon there will be new record highs.

        • Cassandra

          If I buy gold now at 1570 and it drops to 1270 I have lost nearly 20% of the value of my asset. You think its going up now, I think its going up later. I am not anti-gold I am anti-buying gold early. Gold is being held as part of an asset portfolio by market participants no matter who they are. Indeed the bull market has vindicated that strategy, but not because of a safe haven play, but because of a product of easy money. If that driver within global asset markets is waning and we are at the cusp of a major decline across the board, then the asset:gold will collapse along with everything else.

          Gold and silver are in a bull trend as they have been the last 12 years. There is a retrenchment within that long term bull trend providing an opportunity to purchase at a lower entry point. A break below the 1530 support will open up a much deeper decline. Soon there will be much lower levels and an opportunity to purchase at an even lower entry point.
          See what I’ve done there?

          • Tony Brogan

            Most of what you say is true and it depends on a point of view.
            One pays one’s money and takes one’s choices.
            If you are correct and the retrenchment goes lower and you then buy you have maxed out the gains.
            However nobody has been able to forecast a bottom accurately and so there is the ever present danger that one misses the bottom and continues to wait while the train has already left the station.
            Better to be aboard in my view even if the train is shunting around back and forth before leaving for the distant destination.
            another thing is that there are many passengers deciding what to do and there is onlt one train trip. Just as you decide to board there may be no seats left and you can’t get aboard.
            That is there may be no gold for sale at any price.
            So if you can wait and buy later at lower good for you but there may be an “event” that closes the station to you and the train takes off without you.
            I’d rather be aboard than not as I no the eventual destination and it is the only train I can take.

            As you correctly point out, the gold price rise is the result of excess fiat money production. Vast though it has been over the last 5 years it is nothing to what is coming. If your fiat is devalued to zero then gold rises to infinity. There is a paper money collapse at hand and I can not forecast how soon that may be. That is why I am aboard the train making my self comfortable in a window seat.

          • Tony Brogan

            Or you can buy today and pay more later. 12 hours after this essay was written by Adrian Douglas gold is up today 1.4 to 3% depending on currencies. Liken this to an athlete doing calisthenics before the big race. Just warming up.

            “”A Good Time to Buy Gold”"–Adrian Douglas of Market Force Analysis
            Many investors are unsure as to whether gold is a good investment and if gold will continue its rise in price that started twelve years ago. Those who have not invested in precious metals may well be thinking that their investment is too late. Other investors who hold the metal are wondering if gold will fail to reach new highs.
            A reassurance that precious metals are nowhere near their potential is that the world has in no way started to resolve the massive debt burden that has been created. Precious metals are one of the few things that can be purchased that have no counter party risk. I prefer to look at precious metals from the different view point that paper money is being debased at an alarming rate due to excessive issuance of paper and it is the precious metals that are not altered. By holding precious metals, one is able to preserve purchasing power. In fact, when panic sets in, the rush for precious metals will actually increase purchasing power.
            It is important that investors understand the function of gold. Gold is unlike any other commodity that exists; it has the unique property of having no other use except as being held for intrinsic value. Almost all the gold ever mined in the world is still available above ground. This is the purpose of gold in that it is held as an asset. Some gold may be used for jewelry or electronics, but this is a small portion of the available gold and, in any case, it is always recycled because it is so valuable. The most important thing to understand about the mechanism of gold buying and selling is that it is central to the world of finance. If there were to be a drought in the U.S., reducing grain harvests, the price of grain would rise. Gold, however, is not consumed, and is unaffected by seasonal variations. Furthermore, the total stock of gold is large compared to the yearly addition which makes the supply extremely stable.
            In searching for the rationale for investing in gold, there is undisputable proof as to why gold is the most valuable asset on earth. This evidence comes from the central banks themselves. The central banks only hold two assets; one is paper assets, the second is gold. They do not hold soybeans, oil, orange juice, or any other asset. The only intrinsic asset they hold is gold. The central banks prefer to
            operate in terms of paper currency. This gives flexibility to expand their provision of credit far beyond the ability to repay it. When the cycle of money expansion comes to an inevitable collapse, the central banks must return to the ultimate
            money of gold. Once excessive credit has been eliminated or reduced, the cycle of credit expansion will begin again. This is how the central banks operate. We have just entered a cycle of excessive credit expansion and so the massive credit excess must now be eliminated. They must also return the gold that has been leased on a leveraged basis. This is the environment in which precious metals reach their potential. All around the world, central banks are increasing their holdings of gold. The central banks are the masters of the universe when dealing with the world’s finances. When the central banks are owners of only paper money and gold, it is clear that following in their footsteps must be the most intelligent strategy. The central banks try to slow down the move into gold by creating sudden and violent sell-offs. Such take downs are effective against leveraged traders but not those who are serious buyers of gold. While the central banks are net buyers of gold, we can be certain that the gold market will continue higher. As I write this article, gold is trading at $1552. This is likely to be a turning point as gold continues higher. As stated previously, it is paper money that is losing purchasing power rather than gold increasing in value. This is assured by the fact that central banks are showing a preference for gold over paper money. This preference is in its infancy and the equilibrium has a long way to go to reach its true balance.
            By: Adrian Douglas
            June 28, 2012

      • Tony Brogan

        Jo, you are correct on point 2.
        gold is and has been manipulated by central banks and governments.
        The price is manipulated in many ways but primarily through the paper futured markets and through rhetoric and bad mouthing.
        The demand for physical is overwhelming the paper pricing and periodically the PTB have an organised retreat. They win battles but are losing the gold wars.
        It is acknowledged that for avery 100 ounces of gold sold on the London Bullion Exchange there is only one ounce of bullion in existance.
        since the 1970′s central banks have been net sellers of gold but that is now reversed as central banks are now net buyers of gold by some 400 tons a year.
        The annual production of mined gold is in decline and is about 2500 tonnes a year. The annual demand for physical is 4000 tonnes a year.
        The shortfall between demand and and supply has been made up from central bank overt sales, central bank leasing of gold into the market and surreptious sales.
        Of the 32000 tonned of aledged gold held by central banks there is a probability that over a half has gone. Mucg is double accounted and there has been no audit of central bank gold for 40 plus years.
        There have been recent reports that tungsten has been substituted (gold plated) for gold and more recent suggestions that US gold id largely gone and replaced by these counterfeit bars.
        All in all demand around the world is increasing and supply deminishing.
        There is nowhere for the price of gold as denominated in fiat currency to do anything but trend and then shoot higher in price.

        The way most people are acting there is a good probability that there is already lithium in the water supply!!

        • joe hack

          hello Tony,

          over the last 100 years gold has lost value in comparison to the paper stuff now I going to sound like Bonbon no harm. The value of 1oz of gold was at $20.67 in the USA FDR he forced his people to sell their gold when he collected all of the people gold at the fixed price of$20.67 he had it all stashed away in the knocks it allowed the price gold to fluctuate the price rose to free market value of $35 some tax eh.

          If you had $35 in gold 1oz in 1933 and $35 of the paper stuff and left the cash in a bank you would have more paper stuff that you would get for your 1oz of gold even at today prices which have gone five fold in as many years.

          If you had bought a house in 1933 with your $35 or even a site at the glass bottle company well your site or home could be worth millions even hundreds of millions back in 2007 when gold was around $350.

  12. wills

    IMO I do not see overcapacity as a problem when it comes to housing.

    Housing is a proper to sustain life.

    Every single living breathing human being on the face of the planet has an inalienable right to own their own home and NOT pay a fee simple on it or a mortgage repayment or whatever other make up economic doctoring the land owning class invents to maintain their rent seeking rigged economic system.

    Free house for everyone is the answer to a buoyant economy.

    Anything else is a lie and a fraud and morally and economically a disaster.

  13. wills

    Blair on Chatham house run BBC insisting only solution now is for Germany to see the debts of the PIIGS as their debts.

    This is utter rubbish.

    The debts of greedy insider crony networks in all of these crony run countries to pawned off as the debts of the German people is really just dreadful stuff.

    If people like Blair are pressing for such nonsense then I agree with David we are all in serious troubled waters.

    • bonbon

      The British Empire is trying to trap Germany between a 1919 Versailles II, and a 1923 Weimar 2. It is blatant that the dog is called to bark at the door :

      BLAIR TRIES TO BLUDGEON GERMANY

      June 24 (LPAC)–Tony Blair, the British Monarchy’s factotum, speaking on the BBC1 Andrew Marr Show June 24, resumed his attempt to bludgeon Germany into funding the lion’s share of the bailout of the zombie European banking and financial system. According to reports in the June 24 {Sunday Telegraph} and other publications, Blair warned that incremental changes, such as help for Spanish banks, “is not enough.” “The only thing that will save the single currency now is in a sense a sort of grand plan in which Germany is prepared to commit its economy fully to the single currency,” said Blair.

      “That means,” he added, “treating the debts of one as the debts of all.” Thus, Germany would have to stand behind the trillions of dollars of worthless obligations of the Inter-Alpha banks throughout Spain, Italy, and Europe as a whole. Germany’s Angela Merkel has refused this option, despite the pressure from Mario Monti and Francois Hollande; thus, Blair is brought in.

      At the same time, Blair told the same BBC1 show that this plan could not succeed, unless the other countries of Europe were willing to accept the “pain of reform” — austerity that devours the population, such as in Greece.

    • bonbon

      At the same time as Obama faces a very likely Nixon moment, his campaign manager (Syria war campaign that is) Blair gets a very clear warning :

      JUNE 24 {INDEPENDENT} RUNS VERY DAMAGING EXPOSE OF TONY BLAIR

      June 24 (LPAC)–The Sunday June 24 London {Independent} launched a potentially extremely damaging expose against Tony Blair that shows that Blair {personally} blocked Britain’s Attorney General Lord Peter Goldsmith from briefing the critical March 2003 Cabinet meeting, which decided to invade Iraq, that there was a case against military intervention of Iraq; the fear was that the cabinet would not approve the invasion, which invasion Blair and the oligarchy were seeking.

    • Tony Brogan

      When Blair left government he had a million dollar a year advisory contract with JP Morgan. Nice payoff while Gordon Brown’s 450 ton boondogle sale of UK gold is known as Brown’s bottom as he talked the sale into the market for the lowest possible price. $275 to $280 an ounce just 12 years ago.

  14. CorkPlasticPaddy

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, ‘THE LUNATICS HAVE TAKEN OVER THE ASYLUM’.

  15. joe hack

    David,

    Gold goes up in price when fear is in plentiful supply;

    1.

    If the downward price of gold continues could this not mean that the fear is subsiding?
    2.

    If lack of panic is not a factor in the price drop of gold, is it being manipulated by governments or others? QE

    The value gold could be predicted by measuring people’s anxiousness;

    It could be called “the anxiety Index” or “the angst index”

    The cure, add lithium to the water supply in stock exchanges and others.

  16. BlahBlah

    What a revisionist fantasist David is becomes ever more obvious! lacking new ideas David? How about another blanket guarantee for the Irish banks but this time let the Irish people pay for the private debt with their blood?

    • straboe1

      Because we the Irish people have to pay for the bank debts that were not our responsibility, the subsequent reduction in the health budget will cause people to lose their lives. No need to talk about blood.

      • rebean

        Yes but there is a lot of waste in the health service. There are not enough qualified front liners and there are too many managers. Some of the administrative staff cannot do the job and there are too many. Consultants use public facilities for their private practice and we cannot afford the whole mess. There is no will from Govt to sort it out which means taking each hospital one by one and doing the grind. We will all be better off. Its badly managed, costs too much and is getting worse. Its even bad for your health.

    • Dear Blah Blah,

      How many times do I have to tell you that I argued for a temporary guarantee to prevent a bank run, not an open ended – now going into its fifth year – undertaking on behalf of the people to shoulder the gambling debts of bondholders. Find one article of speech that I gave suggesting we pay bondholders anything.

      I argued for a temporary guarantee to buy stability and time and then deal with each bank in turn via a new bank resolution law. Its all there in the print.

      Can you tell me who was the most vocal public critic of the banks in Ireland from 2000-2008? And who was attacked by clowns for all sides for this stance. Yes you know who it was. Now you infer that this same guy could support an on-going policy of socializing the very bank losses that I was warning about? Get a grip.

      And if you think the Euro can remain in its present form, then you are sorely mistaken. But I told you this in 2007. Maybe you didn’t listen then too.

      David

      • CitizenWhy

        David,
        Some people cannot entertain an idea with more than one part. And some like to mislead.

        We all know you advocated the Swedish model. Things would be so much better for Ireland if it had followed Sweden’s example. But Christine LaGarde pumped up Lenihan to “take one for Europe.” Sometimes the Irish, like Obama, can be too desperate to please.

      • Adam Byrne

        I wouldn’t even bother replying to him if I was you David.

      • joe hack

        David,

        While your dander is up and before you chill for your upcoming travels, can you answer this; how did it come to the public’s attention that that Brian Lenihan called to your door?

        I would expect he sought the advice of others too as this is done by politicians on a regular basis i.e. seeking advice and opinions not only for advice but sometimes to disarm would be critics and also to fly kites.

        Most people seek opinions it is not the task of the opinionated to take responsibility for others actions that is the duty of those that are empowered to act particularly since they have all the facts.

        • bonbon

          This will rage on until the banks are split. There is no other option left, except bickering.

          Sure it must occur first in D.C, but that is the truth of the matter. Clarity will reveal who is protecting whom.

          London is now sitting right at the epicenter, and has trotted Blair out to bludgeon Germany. It seems may dogs (with more teeth than Sasha) are now prowling, howling, rattling chains.

          • joe hack

            I don’t have the power the change the political system or economies of the world, I get to vote once in a while I give my opinions because I believe even my humble opinions encourages others to become more interested in the world around them.

            I am activist when I believe my actions will have an impact.

            I think you should know that you don’t need to shout an me BUT if you believe that you can get glass segalig back on the cards by all mean keep at it.
            I am certainly in favour restrictions on money laundering and a lot more.

            Look the two most hostile countries to the FTT were Ireland and the UK because Ireland has one of the biggest financial sector per-capita in the world if my memory is correct it’s around 1.7 trillion yes nearly the same size as the GDP of Italy.

            No Irish government would risk losing the jobs in the finical services sector never mind the other befits of it so bringing in a tax in isolation would be suicide for any government why would Ireland do that in isolation this jobs would be gone in seconds the UK is Ireland’s biggest creditor.

            However if you come up with a doable suggestion as to how we change things something were an action may result in a change I may support it and join in but as it is we are trapped with fear and more 100s of millions of us and the zingiest is not yet changing we are still swimming in flocks and Shoals but please keep plugging at it and educating the schools, shoals and flocks.

          • bonbon

            Stick to the truth, strive for it. After all that is exactly what FG is NOT doing. Eire must not be pulled down with the City. If Glass-Steagall seems impossible now, after everyone will say it was obvious.

            Belief – believe in ideas, that is what makes us human. Then see the behavior of the tormentors. It is not about money, more about being human. And that means a future, because that actually drives the entire discussion here. Not the past and all the FF/FG utter failure.

            There is a yearning which cannot be expressed by coin, and cannot be suppressed.

            Eire is not hostile to the FTT, the very same deep pockets who gave us FG are! And if they are hostile to the FTT, imagine the isanity Glass-Steagall causes!

          • joe hack

            By Peter Flanagan and Sarah Collins in Luxembourg

            Saturday June 23 2012

            “IRELAND will not take part in a Europe-wide financial transaction tax (FTT) as long as countries such as Britain and Luxembourg remain steadfastly against it.
            Some 33,000 people are involved in finance in Ireland and Mr Noonan has repeatedly said he would not sign up to anything that may put those roles at risk.”

          • bonbon

            “Eire is now hostile”—above.

            Anyway the Eire version of the City will have to accept Glass-Steagall. If that group is playing Euro – onshore roles for the Inter-Alpha Group they can continue the games without any state insurance.

            Protecting Wall Street, the city and now this. So Noonan is showing the true game.

      • bonbon

        When that happened many were pressing for HBPA, Home Owner and Bank Protection Act in the US. Then the MBS collapse was breaking out. Commercial banking did need protection.

        Now a little bit later, we need immediately the full original Glass-Steagall banking separation to save a necessary commercial banking sector, but to remove the “investment” arm from any kind of insurance or bailouts. Since that HBPA, the sheer scale of criminality and bailouts has skyrocketed. Without Glass-Steagall the entire economy will very soon be laid waste with all that that means.

      • BlahBlah

        What do mean by temporary guarantee? Merrill Lynch warned the Government at the time that a guarantee could cost up to €500bn, which the State could not afford to cover. Were you aware of the discussions Cowen had with JP McManus and the bankers Paul Gallagher, Eugene Sheehy, Richard Burrows and Brian Goggin?

        Let’s face it your endorsement in the Sunday Business Post and the Irish Independent a few days earlier helped to push over public opinion. That’s your legacy!

        • Blah, blah

          A temporary guarantee means exactly that. Its like an annual inusrance policy. Once the year is up so too is the insurance. Go back and read what I wrote. If you want to believe an inveneted version of history, I can’t help you.

          David

          • BlahBlah

            David,

            as a matter of fact the bank guarantee was temporary and was actually renewed by the current government as you very well know. So your statement here comes across as a bit misleading.

            True I have appreciated your contribution prior to the 2007/08 turn, actually alot. You have called the charade that was Irish public madness and obsession with property what it was. But your call for a bank guarantee wasn’t well thought through and allowed the bankers, developers and corrupt politician to hold the entire country hostage.

            Why do you think the current govern renewed the bank guarantee and transferred the private debt into the sovereign? and please don’t give me that ECB or Germany nonsense again.

          • Blah Blah

            Blah Blah …Blah Blah Blah Blah

            Is that all you can say ?

          • stiofanc02

            John Allen has it right. Blah blah is an asshole.

          • bannerboy

            Blah blah, I’m having a hard time understanding your point. If a temporary guarantee was argued for, are you blaming anybody who advocated this for the government of the time and the next government paying off tens in billions of taxpayer’s money to private investors? One most certainly does not lead to the other. Even if there was the question of a legal obligation because of the governments own blanket guarantee to these investors the government as sovereign should have reneged in the interests of the citizens. Your blaming of someone peripheral to the actions of the government of the time smacks of Fianna Fail tactics of blaming everyone and anyone for their butchery of the finances of the state and its people. I’m all for critical analysis of peoples actions but you seem to be unwilling to acknowledge the difference between what was advocated by some and what was implemented by the government. Astro turfing anyone?

          • BlahBlah

            David, /cc bannerboy

            you have aptly identified the source of the property bubble in Ireland by criticizing the Irish government for fueling the ponzi scheme that was the Irish economy with cheap credit and the regulatory mantra of light-touch or actually no-touch regulation prior to 2007. And you have done your best to upset the apple tart by cribbing and moaning on the sidelines to the best of your ability, frequently and well ahead of time. As a reward you are now a bestselling author in Ireland.
            But getting back to the bank guarantee I can’t see in your agitation for a blanket bank guarantee in the Irish Independent, the Sunday Business Post and elsewhere prior to the announcement on Monday any different solution to the one that was introduced by the Fianna Fail / Green Party government and is currently continued by the Fine Gael / Labour Party. I think your defense is that you didn’t know at the time that it was a solvency, not a liquidity issue we had with the Irish banks. And since you thought it was just a liquidity problem you did not anticipate a need for a bailout. Actually why did you think at the time that it was just a liquidity problem when in your books and articles you had frequently described the Irish financial economy as dire and lacking the fundamentals? Did the bankers and corrupt Fianna Fail politicians feed you the wrong information in September 2008 on purpose?

            Yours,
            BlahBlah

    • blah blah blah. blah.

      • Dear Blah, Blah

        Do you not know – of did you choose not to know – that in January 2009, seeing what was happening with the guarantee (which was that the only mechanism open to stop a bank run was not being used to protect bondholders) I went on Marian Finucane – the most public forum in the country – for a full 1 hour interview and stated that the guarantee should be rescinded. I predicted that if it wasn’t, we would end up in the bailout. This was a full 18 months before the bailout.

        Do you not know that in response to a subsequent series of articles on rescinding the guanatee, Brian Lenihan took out a full page editorial piece in the Indo criticising me personally for suggesting that we rescind?

        Have a read below. If yoou want to see where positions had shifted.

        http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/states-priority-is-helping-economy-not-the-developers-1716678.html

        So why to you persist with this idea that I am responsable for the last four, soon to be five years, of governement banking policy when you can see that this is not the case?

        I hoped to offer solutions to a bank run, then realised that the powers were more interested in saving the bondholders and giving the bill to us, so I called for it to be rescinded. This was all in the opening months of 2009 well before any bondholders were paid.

        David

        • BlahBlah

          Well, thank you for the links David. Now it looks even more like a setup by late Brian Lenihan just to use your public advise as an endorsement to push his own agenda back in September 2008. Your worst fear has come to pass and we now know for certain that Brian was on the side of the elite. though what you describe as the elite is a rather misleading concept as we all know that the establishment catered to a wide range of people in Ireland from every walk of life.

          I assume with hindsight you would argue against a blanket bank guarantee in September 2008?

  17. As Elizabeth Taylor, playing Martha said in “Whose Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” “No more games, I am tired of games.”

    It is time for us all to pack up our toys, tools, and arsenals: to return to our own backyards, pick up the rack, remove the leaves and plant new seeds.

    Perhaps it is not too late: instead of the Queen Mom holding a 60th Jubilee, the wrong kind indeed – the real debt jubilee is still within our grasp. A 21st century Marshall plan.

    Maybe we all should be reviewing Kindleberger . His lessons of panic in financial markets (versus, counterpoint to Friedman), markets can get it WRONG for a very very long time: self reinforcing boom and bust cycles; the second lesson, the power of contagion (1931 small Vienna spread to Berlin, then London and New York – and the key point being besides financial ties there is the psychological element) , the third, the importance of hegemony. There must be a benevolent (hopefully) single global power for stabillity. The vacuum in the Great Depression (transition of UK to US, US not wanting to accept baton) same today global leadership vacuum, small country/entity (Greece/Lehman) contagion, blame. etc

    Ultimately, Kindleberger had enough sense to move beyond the mathematical models and probabilities, to realize that economics is a social science indeed (there’s a psychology at the micro – individual, the mid point, the institution, and the macro, collectively exchanges and markets) of a million billion actors (hard to estimate/predict) and that politics, the stable “good faith” hemegon, is crucial to keep IT ALL contained from going off rails at times of crisis.

    The lack of global leadership, or if leaders, they certainly are not acting in good faith (for instance 2008 or current EU crisis we would have seen a 21st century Marshall Plan) is indeed what is the real underlying problem – no “good faith” – no surprise the world’s peoples have lost faith.

    But as the song by Maureen McGovern in “The Poseidon Adventure” – “The Morning After…” “It’s not too late, not while were living…”

    Ireland, my recommendation, go back into the UK fold. Only those with printing capacity, sterling/dollar can weather the storm.

    • bonbon

      “The lack of global leadership” implies Eire should go back to the UK? Inter-Alpha banks there are indeed showing bankruptcy leadership. And Mr. Blair is trying to lead Germany to the pick-pocket.

      An Artfull Dodger indeed!

    • Tony Brogan

      Hi HAhyperion

      nothing stopping Irerland printing its own currency and regaining control of monetary policy just like any sovereign nation

      cheers
      T

  18. Tony Brogan

    In 1944 Ireland was a neutral country.
    Ireland should be neutral again, with an independent fiscal and monetary policy.
    Dump the Euro
    Create its own currency

    Close the central bank.
    Issue sound money into circulation. Silver coin alongside , in parallel to fiat paper, to give the people a choice of savings vehicle as have the Chinese and many other countries are considering, and to provide a solid backing to the currency.

    The country repudiates all odious debt, that which was private and should remain so, which will bring the national debt back to managable amounts.

    • molly

      Yes I agree but with what’s running things there is about a snowballs chance in hell.
      David you can see the wood from the trees,I think when you put out your views that you are in a way holding back and are under stating the bigger problem that is sournding Europe like a virus .
      For Ireland to get rid of the euro and take back what’s rightfully ours we need a complete new political system and a complete new government.
      The corrupt government wants to look not corrupt ,but it passes the laws that are ment to cut out corruption .
      Do you think for one minute the the present government is going to incriminate its self by passing laws that would make it hard for them to stay in power.
      A liar needs a good memory and the lies told by the present government to get elected is proof the they would lie to get into power and once there they simply don’t care that the lies they told ,they simply don’t matter so it’s the two fingers to us who where conned by them.
      We have had FF,FG,LAB,GREENS and between them it’s got us no where so let someone else have a go.

      • Tony Brogan

        Just keep the faith Molly.
        I work on the principle that I’ll tell two people who in turn will tell two people and so it goes.
        A stone tossed into a tranquil pond will send a ripple clear accross to the other side.

        • molly

          Yes you are right,just look at the amount of dead wood in the present government .
          When this governments term is up how many of the old faces will really care if they get elected or not ,sure they can ride of into the sun with there I’ll gotten gains .
          The hard knocks we have being forced to take are not delt out fairly,I have no problem with pain as long as its fair,and the very ones that are dishing out the pain are protecting them and there kind.
          When decent people are treated like fools ,I say try swapping places and on till they do and are removed by force if nesserty out from there protected bubble this problem is going to grow.

  19. wills

    David,

    Agree with everything you stated in reply to blah blah’s revisionist take on the truth.

  20. bonbon

    Interesting that somehow polls got people to admit deep worries, usually only whispered on the street.
    Recently I put the Euro question on the table and I was surprised how many engineers actually produced DM coins! I had not guessed. As for the Karlsruhe Court ruling blocking President Gauck’s ESM signature – people are embarrassed it came to this.

    Germans Show Lowest Support for Keeping Euro in Four Nation Poll

    Germans showed the lowest support for the euro among the four largest nations using the currency, according to a poll published in four European newspapers today.

    The poll shows 39 percent of Germans favor leaving the euro, versus 28 percent of Italians, 26 percent of French and 24 percent of Spaniards, according to the survey, conducted by Ifop-Fiducial and published in Madrid-based ABC, Germany’s Bild, Italy’s Corriere della Sera and Le Journal du Dimanche.

    In all four countries, majorities said that loans to Greece will never be paid back, even as most said that not saving Greece would increase the euro region’s difficulties “dangerously,” ABC said. In France and Germany, most of those polled said Greece should leave the euro if it can’t pay back its loans, while in Italy and Spain about half shared that view.

    More on this story at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-24/germans-show-lowest-support-for-keeping-euro-in-four-nation-poll.html

  21. molly

    Greece will never pay back the loans.
    Germany and Europe is trying to keep greece in or are they ,is there someone out there who can explain how on gods earth Greece can pay back the loans ,if Greece can pay back the loans they should be allowed to stay and if they can’t Greece should leave.
    The euro looked like a good system ,but like everything it was the way the systems around the euro was run free money unlimited money it’s was like ten year old with a credit card with no limit and told to spend spend,live for today and who cares about tomorrow .

    • joe hack

      SISYPHUS IS WORKING AWAY IN DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE;

      They can’t nor can we the euro was never a good idea in the way it set up but it may turn out to be a tool for forced political integration.

      If I was conspiracy theorist i could deduce that this is what was indented when the euro was set up Kohl called Markel “my pet” a little sexist may be there is a lot of history you would need to check to see where I am coming from.

      Europe the EEC, EU the Euro were designed to stop wars this appears to have worked and the fear of a break up may be at the heart of what saves it having that fear in place makes easier for those in power to bring in political integration which at the moment has no mandate but if the fear continues the mandate may be forthcoming.

      We have a choice we leave the euro dump our banks or we hang in and become part of what may be forced upon us which may include some form of debt forgiveness, that for me is the urgent analysis and debate that is needed.

      There is no one here who can predict the future unless they have access to the inner minds of those with the powerand clairvoyants do not exist.

      Our policy maker should be preparing plan B this has been said years ago who know there may be one but I don’t think so maybe that is because they know what happing but I don’t think so.

      Sisyphus is working away in department of finance expect this may continue until the firemen are called

      • molly

        Kenny does not want debt forgiveness and it does not matter weather he’s made it up or the well payed spin doctor told him to say it,the point is with fucking goshites like him in the so called driving seat,we are have a very poor seat at the table.
        It will be intresting to see the forth comming budget and how they expect to raise the money ,
        They could get rid of the claped out cop cars and give them push bikes .

    • bonbon

      Many said the truth – the Euro was set up by Thatcher and Mitterand to “contain Germany” after Re-unification. This is very well known, explicit policy.

      Reported above is Blair’s active role this week to bludgeon Merkel.

      Now never mind the stubborn Tiger housing insane delusions, but it is appearing again in the form of denial of public facts. Monetary Union defined and set in motion by the British has caused Eire untold damage. Whenever Eire has played along it has been simply consumed, devoured.

      Sir Oswald Mosley, British fascist, proposed a forced United States of Europe (after Churchill’s USE). Enforced political union – where have we heard that before?

  22. joe hack

    For the conspiracy theorist,€€€€€€ did the computer manufactures think that the Euro would fail because as it is only latterly that that have actually put € sign on the computers, even than you have the stand on one leg with you’re a finger stuck in your ear the get aaahhh € sign to work it is quicker to type Euro or was this a in joke in the USA?????

  23. Tony Brogan

    Hi David
    We get an email notice of a new post but when going to the blog have to search the whole thing to see where the new post is. I seem to spend a large amount of time scrolling up and down.
    Is it a possiblity that the email notice of a new post when clicked on will land on thet post in the blog. Such a feature would be very appreciated by me at least!!?
    Thanks
    Tony

    • Adam Byrne

      I second that?

    • It’s pretty simple

      Go to the home page and click ‘articles’

      • Tony Brogan

        yes of course that gets the selection of articles but when one receives the email notice of a post there is no way to find out where it is (the article is known) posted within to total postings. i did not know you had responded to me except by accident of happenstance. I saw it as I went by on the scroll button.
        one cannot search for a contributors name either.

        Just wondered if such an improvement was readily available.

        • There is nothing that can’t be done tony.
          The usual suspects know the blog could be better laid out but we stopped mentioning it long ago. We get around and we always find what we are looking for

          I take it you are referring to posts rather than articles. If so I see your point

          It takes a brave soul to upgrade a wordpress site and get it right. It is not for the inexperienced or faint hearted

  24. bonbon

    Spain and Cyprus requested bailouts. Its just Tuesday.

    Leading German Weekly {Der Speigel} Sees Euro Collapse as Almost a Given

    June 25 (EIRNS)–Germany’s {Der Spiegel} this week runs a cover story headlined, “When the Euro Breaks Apart–A Scenario,” which reports that Deutsche Bank anaylsts and many others are already preparing for the collapse of the euro system and the expected return of several members states to their former national currencies.

    In its lead story, “Imagining the Unthinkable: The Disastrous Consequences of a Euro Crash,” {Spiegel} writes that companies are checking their contracts with business partners in Greece and other Southern European states, as to whether it is clearly defined there that if something is owed in euros today to those firms, it can be ruled out that they would be paid the same sum in (less valuable) drachmas, in the future.

    “The Patient Is Getting Worse,” a subhead in the Spiegel story says, continuing: “The discussion has been going in circles for months, which is why the continent’s debtor countries continue to squander confidence, among both the international financial markets and their citizens. No matter what medicine European politicians prescribe, the patient isn’t getting any better. In fact, he’s only getting worse.”

    Since the donor countries of the European north are not really willing to make sacrifices to help their debtors in the south, {Spiegel} writes citing “many,” but unnamed, experts: “As a result, the world is imagining the unthinkable: the withdrawal of several Southern European countries from the monetary union, or possibly even the general collapse of the Eurozone. It isn’t easy to predict how such a tornado would affect the global economy, but it’s clear that the damage would be immense.”

    “Analysts with the major Swiss bank Credit Suisse have calculated in a study,” {Spiegel} writes, that “if Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy joined Greece in leaving the euro, 29 large European banks would see a total capital shortfall of about EU410 billion. `If the peripheral countries withdraw from the Eurozone, a few of the large, publicly traded banks would come to a standstill,’ reads the analysts’ sobering conclusion….”

    “The worst can still be prevented, and Europeans still have the ability to save their common currency without overtaxing the solidarity of the donor countries,” {Spiegel} propagandizes. “But it is a massive task. Europe’s politicians must surrender power to Brussels to supplement their common currency with the political union that’s been missing until now.”

    {Der Spiegel}’s the full text is available in English at http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fears- grow-of-consequences-of-potential-euro-collapse-a-840634.html

  25. piombo

    @Bonbon and others,
    I don’t believe political union even a mere announced one will be sufficient as it will be patently not credible to convince the bond markets that it is enforceable to enable tax collection and spending discipline.
    A practical example might serve to illustrate:
    Having just returned from Sicily from a short family trip, we noticed that no one issued receipts for anything. How does Brussels expect to collect taxes in a place where tax evasion is a way of life, where the fiscal police call ahead to their prospective target so as to ensure they won’t be shot or have their family threatened?
    I can only see the introduction of local currencies for intra-national transactions whilst maintaining the euro for international ones. This measure alongside a massive reduction of the civil service and social welfare in all affected countries plus an asset sale of all non-military state assets are the only credible measures inmo to contain the situation.
    Finally, a tabula rasa approach to taxation and contributions both employer and employee is needed to make our countries more competitive than the Asian and Northern European ones.

    • bonbon

      I would not use the usual “crystal ball” method – if that ball does not mention Blair, Obama, bank splitting, then the thing does not work.

      Anyway have a look at my post next theme on Der Spiegel’s scenarios.

  26. Tony Brogan

    Hi David
    “All the while, the shoppers of Selfridges spend on, oblivious to what is coming down the line”"

    It is my opinion that the majority of people have exactly the same attitude to the value of their currencies. Very soon they could be totally broke and this concerns me. I ahve taken the liberty of copy and pasting an essay that explains the inherant value of real money and the desaster unfolding in the fiat currency world.

    It should be a topic that you spend some time on as you too seem oblivious!

    Have a great family holiday trip (while your fiat currency lasts)

    Regards
    Tony

    My Last Forecast on Silver and Gold Prices

    Jeff Nielson

    It seems at the very least ironic that as I begin a new chapter in my own career as precious metals analyst for Silver Gold Bull, that simultaneously I’m writing my last chapter on one facet of that analysis. This will be my last effort at playing the increasingly irrelevant game of attempting to forecast gold and silver prices — in terms of the bankers’ paper.

    Many readers will be aghast at this announcement. How can I “analyze” the gold and silver market without providing guidance on its (paper) prices? I would immediately reverse this proposition with a question of my own. How can anyone provide rational estimates for future prices of hard assets which are being priced in paper which is already effectively worthless?

    Now it is the paper-peddlers who would be horrified by my stance. How dare I assert that the beloved fiat-currencies which they (and their propaganda machine) place in such high esteem are worthless? Here I have a host of arguments at my disposal, several of which I have used in the past.

    There is the obvious analogy between paper currencies and the shares of a corporation. With nothing officially “backing” these paper currencies, our governments can only impute value in this paper as a claim against these sovereign entities which issue them. How much is a share worth in a bankrupt corporation? How much is a dollar worth, when it is issued by an obviously bankrupt debtor?

    However we don’t need to go down that road, since it would inevitably lead to a debate between the phony, official numbers of the United State’s “national debt”, and the $200+ trillion in debts and liabilities which it would be forced to acknowledge if it had to follow the same accounting rules as all U.S. corporations are required by law to use.

    There is a much simpler and more direct way to demonstrate the worthlessness of the U.S. dollar, one which is beyond any possible debate. As a tautology, anything which can be obtained in infinite quantities and produced at zero cost must be worthless. If this were not the case, then one would simply produce an infinite quantity of that item — and then exchange it for all the goods (and services) in the entire world.

    With most of our fiat currencies now being conjured into existence electronically, this is the ultimate example of an infinite quantity/zero cost item…with one exception. Since all of this funny-money is borrowed into existence, the bankers were previously able to claim that in fact this was not a “zero cost” item — because of the debt/interest attached to each currency unit.

    However that argument, the only basis for claiming that the bankers’ fiat currency had any value whatsoever evaporated the day that the U.S. began its permanent era of 0% interest rates. On that day the U.S. dollar fully became a zero cost/infinite quantity item — and indisputably worthless as a basic proposition of logic.

    Why do people think B.S. Bernanke attempted to peddle the myth of an “exit strategy” — i.e. an end to 0% interest rates — for nearly three years, before finally being forced to abandon that absurd pretense? Because he and the rest of the banking cabal are terrified that someone would stand up (as I have done on several occasions) and announce that “the Emperor is wearing no clothes.”

    At the end of Tulipmania 400 years ago; one day a single tulip could be exchanged to buy a house. The next day that tulip was merely a flower. The tulip itself was unchanged. All that did change was that the mass delusion that tulips were items of considerable value suddenly and collectively evaporated. It is one of the reasons why every fiat currency ever created has gone to zero (or simply been removed from circulation before it hit zero). It is one of the reasons why they tend to go to zero very, very quickly — more commonly known as “hyperinflation”.

    The moment we accept the logical fact that these fiat currencies are already worthless we see the absurdity of attempting to price valuable assets (like gold and silver) in paper which has no meaning. If I announce that in hyperinflation-ravaged Zimbabwe that an ounce of gold is “worth” $2.5 trillion Zimbabwe dollars, does that actually mean anything to anyone?

    Sadly, we have collectively been so completely brainwashed (over the past century) that we are now almost incapable of conceiving a world which is not priced in paper. However, go back little more than a century (and for all the centuries preceding it throughout history) and we encounter a world virtually the mirror-opposite of our own.

    In that world, everything was “priced” in gold and silver. The only way that mere paper could ever acquire value was as a certificate directly backed by gold or silver. The concept of a world where everything was “priced” in fiat paper which was backed by nothing (and effectively worthless) would have been a proposition much too ludicrous for any of our ancestors to consider — except during their own, brief, disastrous experiments with such paper.

    As our fiat currencies begin their final descent into history’s dust-bin of failed paper, we are entering a period of transition and re-education. We must reintroduce into our minds the concept of once again pricing goods and services in terms of items of enduring value (i.e. real money).

    There is no space here to explain (yet one more time) why gold and silver are “money” while our paper currencies are obviously not. Readers will have to refer to previous explanations of the definition of money. Once readers have completed this second step in their mental transition, they are ready to return to a world of real money — and rational “value”.

    How many ounces of gold does a house cost? How many pairs of shoes could one purchase with an ounce of silver? When the “dimes” and “quarters” in our wallets once again contain actual silver (real money), we could once again buy a chocolate bar with a dime (as we could only a few decades ago) — and perhaps several.

    This mental transition will naturally seem like a very intimidating concept to many, just as the Dutch couldn’t conceive of a world which was not “priced” in tulips — the day before Tulipmania ended. Here it’s important to make readers explicitly aware of the penalties for being one of the last to make the transition away from the bankers’ world of worthless, fraudulent paper.

    If you were a Dutch resident who exchanged his/her tulips for items of real value before the day Tulipmania ended, you fully protected/insured your wealth. If you did not do so, you were completely wiped-out financially — with nothing to console you except a handful of pretty flowers.

    If we exchange our dollars (or euros) for hard assets (i.e. silver and gold) now, before they inevitably suffer the same fate as the Zimbabwe dollar, we can still protect what is left of our wealth. If we attempt to exchange our paper the day after our own “Tulipmania” comes to an end we will find we are holding nothing but an inferior brand of toilet paper.

    It is because the speed at which this final collapse will occur is so unpredictable that it has become a Fool’s Game attempting to guess short-term prices for silver and gold — and now even predicting longer term prices as well. Indeed, this is now so speculative that it only makes sense to do so in a “best-case scenario” for the bankers’ paper (i.e. where they are able to delay the collapse of their paper with the maximum amount of success). Obviously in their worst-case scenario the paper would be absolutely worthless, inferring infinite prices for gold, silver, and other hard assets.

    Thus my worst-case scenario for the price of gold is a price of at least $5,000/oz within the next 2 — 5 years. Similarly, my prediction for the price of silver would be a minimum of $200/oz within that same 2 — 5 year time horizon. Some will accuse me of making a “prediction” so loose as to be useless. I make no apologies.

    None other than the eminent John Williams of Shadowstats.com, the foremost expert on U.S. inflation, flatly asserted that hyperinflation could hit the U.S. as early as 2011. The fact that this estimate has proven premature is no slight against Mr. Williams. In periods of market “mania”, whether we are talking about Tulipmania 400 years ago or “dot-com mania” little more than a decade ago, such collective insanity tends to endure longer than any rational mind would predict.

    So it is with “dollar mania”. I have just finished demonstrating that the U.S. dollar is already worthless, as a tautology of logic. At the same time, we have the shills of the Corporate Media assuring any and all Sheep who still heed their nonsense that the U.S. dollar is a “safe haven”. The endless assertions by these loyal drones of the “unsinkable” stature of the dollar is eerily remeniscent of the Titanic.

    Understand that the Flight out of Paper has already begun. In the East — the prosperous economies which are slowly, steadily taking control of the global economy – $trillions per year in trade which used to be conducted in U.S. dollars is now being carried out through direct, bilateral trading using these nations’ own currencies.

    This huge collapse in demand for U.S. dollars is yet another dynamic which can only end in a zero-value dollar. As the global glut of dollars gets larger and larger, the value of these ever-growing mountains of paper must rapidly decline in corresponding terms. Arguing that the U.S, dollar “has value” simply because it has not yet hit zero is precisely the same circular reasoning which doomed many of the Dutch at the end of Tulipmania.

    Today I’m making my last call with respect to gold and silver prices. Another way of putting this would be that I’m making my “last call” for any/all passengers willing to disembark from the U.S.S. Titanic.

    • Tony Brogan

      Here is Bix Weir on silver.

      I’m tired of “pussy footing” around with people talking about the silver drivers. I’m tired of listening to silver analyst talking about fundamentals, supply, demand, technical analysis, China, India, industrial demand, monetary significance, blah, blah, blah! I am even tired of everything I’VE WRITTEN about buying physical silver such as this…

      Melt The Witch
      http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/136.cfm

      Sure – they all sound like very sound reasons to buy silver and they are but I’m just tired of it all because I KNOW THE TRUTH ABOUT SILVER.

      And as they say, “The Truth Will Set You Free”!

      Here are the only five points you need to fully understand about silver:

      1) The price of silver is 100% RIGGED by computer programs everyday and every trade.

      2) The computer market rigging operations began in the early 1970′s based on computer programs written by Alan Greenspan and Stephen Devaux and were taken over by the Banking Cabal in the 1980′s.

      3) These rigging programs have been implemented through the NY Fed, in the basement “Operations Center” of the US Treasury and through the Federal Reserve’s Prime Dealer banks such as JP Morgan.

      4) These market riggers can place the price of paper silver at $0/oz or $1M/oz with the stroke of a key on a computer keyboard so NOBODY knows the real “Fair Market Value” of silver.

      5) Although the leaders and regulators of the United States have been complicit to these operations for the past 40 years, they are about to shut down the market rigging operations and return to a gold and silver standard.

      That’s all you need to know except this:

      6) If you wish to survive the coming chaos associated with the end of silver market manipulation…YOU MUST OWN PHYSICAL SILVER and IT MUST BE HELD IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION WITH NO THIRD PARTY INVOLVEMENT.

      All other silver investments will be washed away with the collapse of the global fiat monetary system.

      That’s all you need to know.

      May the Road you choose be the Right Road.

      Bix Weir
      http://www.RoadtoRoota.com

      • Cassandra

        Tony, I think you need to read someone else.

        • Tony Brogan

          You mean not Bix weir?

          “If you wish to survive the coming chaos associated with the end of silver market manipulation…YOU MUST OWN PHYSICAL SILVER and IT MUST BE HELD IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION WITH NO THIRD PARTY INVOLVEMENT.”

          This is correct in my opinion.In fact all 6 points are correct.(#2 I have not confirmed but have no reason to doubt)

          what do you suggest I do read?

  27. StephenKenny

    It’s not 1944, it’s 1914.
    With the support of US/UK, Turkey will put an ultimatum to Syria. Syria will agree to all but one, completely absurd, section. The US/UK will then ‘decide’ to attack Syria. Russia & China, which have been watching this series of US/UK military actions with increasing concern, will eventually have to say “No further”, and stop the dominoes.
    Unfortunately, they cannot take on the USA militarily except in one area – nuclear.
    The US/UK will call the Russian bluff, so confident are they that a nuclear exchange is impossible. Russia will have been backed into an impossible corner. What will they do?
    They have two options: Back down, or defend Syria with the only effective weapons they have.

    • Yeah it doesn’t look good. It’s all a set up to distract from the finiancial collapse, once Syria is out of the way they’ll have Iran cornered…and with China getting so much oil from Iran they don’t stand idly by.

    • joe hack

      The proxy war in Syria is only one front the other and more direct war is that of China, via south Korea the USA for the last two years have been increasing large patrols in the south china seas they are now playing with their toys so called war games with the south Koreans and ominously are using north Koreans flags as target practice china has been investing in North Korea infrastructure.

      The shooting down of the Turkish spy plane was shock to the west it is believed the only weapon capable doing this outside of the USA patriot SAM is the su300 a Russian made SAM missile the su 300 is a formidable defence weapon.

      I believe it may have been a welcome incident by the Syrians it will discourage a possible no fly Zone and there is no one deputing the legality of the shooting down of the USA made F4 an old plane but it can fly at mach 2.2 not an easy target.

      I don’t know if Turkey were aware that that had this weapon but it is said that the Russia had just recently delivered them, complying to a contract prior to the outbreak of violence but it is also suggested that the Syrians were not fully trained and that it was the Russian training team that fired, this may be propaganda or misinformation the media can be very jingoistic and black and white at times.

      I do think the USA maybe feeling a little disempowered in the world it not the financial superpower it once was ???

      • StephenKenny

        The F4 is a very old aircraft – 1960s. I doubt, even with modifications, that even an SA5 would have too much trouble hitting one.

        The Turkish airforce supports some much more modern aircraft, so sending out F4s is a pretty strange decision.

        It all looks a bit too Gulf of Tonkin for me, especially given Ms Clinton’s recent comments.

  28. goldbug

    IF YOU OWNED A CASINO…

    WOULD YOU BORROW THE CHIPS AT INTEREST FROM ANOTHER CASINO ?

    WOULD YOU PLAY POKER IN A CASINO…

    WHERE YOU HAD TO BORROW CHIPS AT INTEREST?

    HOW LONG WOULD THAT CASINO LAST?

  29. crazy cat

    Hello all,
    quite enjoyed this from Nigel Farage

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFZTAhVlcoI

  30. molly

    Everything to do with this government is export led
    What happens when the exports start to falter.
    Look at how light the traffic is ,look how empty the shops are and shopping centres .
    The domistic economy is dead,is this labours way or the wrong description way.
    Rome burns but the good news is the government are meeting there targets.

    • molly

      It’s hard to know in advance the way to protect oneself ,I live on a good size plot in county Louth .
      Think I buy a pollytunnel and start trying to be come in some way self sufficient ,we use to eat out quite a lot ,but the money is just not there any more.

  31. 7th Day B4 Full Moon

    Today without fail the mystical Dyson in our lives indicates how close it is to us when we feel that PULL .Its warranty is never questioned and never claimed against .It performs with absolute perfection and its power never diminishes .In fact from today its gradual appearance grows in strength until its final theatrical performance next Tuesday numbs the orchestra in our lives to silence.

    Embrace its magic .Build up on what it offers and dance to its music.

    The small ripples of the waves increase in size to a tSunami in your life of Great Changes and make it a Moment to celebrate .

    Drive Slowly , Slow Down , Just Slow Down .

  32. Tony Brogan

    Sorry I missed the Sona ad or I would have deleted it.

    • DO you mean ‘Sony’ Tony?

      • Tony Brogan

        No, Sona is a gold exploration company and they have a ad inserted in the middle of the above.

        Pauldiv, keep up the rants. It is good to have reflections on life as it progresses and changes.
        if I get my bike out to the west i will visit you to chew the fat and have a brew!!
        I will be in Mayo so Slio is not too far?

        i am trying to get myself up to a steady 100 km a day. All camping gear and clothes carried on the bike. I am still in the process of trying the different equipment. I have still to find a saddle that is not a pain in the arse after an hour.

        120 km in the saddle today and hope to do the same tomorrow. My first back to back 100 km plus jaunts. My legs are sore.

        I have a tent, mattress and sleeping bag. Two panniers at the back and then 2 more to get for the front.
        Take care
        T

        • joe hack

          I used to do a lot of that but me bones don’t like it now, panniers can be a pain when unbalanced especially on the front I seen some really well designed light weight trailers I think you can lock your bike and use them as a wheelie trolley to do your shopping or go for a beer????

        • joe hack

          keep putting things in the wrong place.

          I used to do a lot of that but me bones don’t like it now, panniers can be a pain when unbalanced especially on the front I seen some really well designed light weight trailers I think you can lock your bike and use them as a wheelie trolley to do your shopping or go for a beer????

        • joe hack

          again keep putting things in the wrong place.

          I used to do a lot of that but me bones don’t like it now, panniers can be a pain when unbalanced especially on the front I seen some really well designed light weight trailers I think you can lock your bike and use them as a wheelie trolley to do your shopping or go for a beer????

        • Tony Brogan

          Joe
          Yes my bones creak too. People say I look well and in good shape and I tell them it is killing me to be so!Still I am down to 200 lbs now and the next stop is to get into the 190′s. First time in 20 years I have reversed the weight gain syndrome.

          The world is a beautiful place today. 18C sunny, light breeze, puffy clouds and more to come over the next months.

          I found a flat on the back tire this AM so don’t know how long I rode in the dark last night on a soft tire.
          I’ll fix it in the sunshine in an hour and go riding again.

          I have seen the trailers and they seem an idea for towing a kid along, otherwise its just more weight added to the load. I am in bottom gear on some of the hills as it is so for now I will stick to the panniers. Loaded rear panniers unbalance the bike but perhaps a little weight on the front will balance things out.

        • Go west Tony and go for it. If you are ever in Sligo or Mayo then do get in touch. I am pleased you enjoy my rants. To be honest it’s the only time I feel valued these days. I was delighted with your feedback and like I was saying before it is a lifeline when people take value from our contributions

          A chew and a brew sounds just the ticket. Life on the west coast can be great and you will always find a spot to rest your tired head. Mother Ireland will always take care of us Tony

          Take care now

        • Tony Brogan

          Pauldiv

          I’ll be sure to get in touch if I know where you are. will I just ask around for the young lad leaning on the lamp post smoking a rollie.
          To me you are a young lad at 47. You have a lifetime ahead of you yet as you are barely middle aged. I was forty one when my first child arrived and the three are now grown and self sufficient. But talking of heroes. I think I am still their hero, I hope I am. I am their dad.

          • Hi Tony,
            really like your posts regarding real money and worth. Would be interested in talking to you to get some further understanding.

            Thanks,

            Josey

        • Tony Brogan

          Josey
          I am in Canada but I have an Irish # you can use to contact me. It is forwarded to my computer where ever I am. Leave me a message if I do not answer and I will call you back. I do not carry a mobile.
          14429035
          Email is tony@tonybrogan.com.
          Tony

      • Paul

        All the best. I spent last Sunday amongst some evangelical Christians at a lovely church in Rathmines. We spoke about the morality of economics – which I believe in fundamentally. It was really wonderful to be with spiritual people who used expressions like love and giving as these expressions are supposed to be used.

        Keep smoking the rollies and standing against walls. Lots to be said for it Yin.

        Best and see you the Ablamov one of these days

        David

      • joe hack

        Mr. div it might not cheer you up but the comments and topic should be of interest to you…

        http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0627/1224318804606.html

  33. The Last Post old friend. I am older, tired and bored David and want to say cheers with a few words of truth. Truth is an abstract an subjective experience. But the only truth that counts is the truth in our heads and this is measureable through personal feedback and arguably our by our earning power

    Kudos and dollars control humans like Pavlov controlled dogs with bells and food. The world of today controls people via fear, insecurity and personal desires. A troika of human weaknesses that any savvy interrogator will exploit. Ask any S(h)inner and will explain. Uber clean is a prerequisite for any politcal wannabe

    Being middle aged is an advantage. Life seems shot but spiritually life is just starting. It’s great because there is no pressure and there is no pressure because younger people in this young cool world think you are not up to the task. You can play daft and many of the insiders have being doing this for years. Hence the reason they are still employed

    It’s a morning perfect for shore fishing, cycling or whatever you like doing outdoors. Woohoo summer is here and I never went for a pee and missed it. Haw haw haw hor. Ok all crap jokes aside. We are all geeks in here and nice lads apart from you know who

    I am in a right old pickle chaps. Do I spend the summer in Sligo or shall I go and join the chaps in Southern France taking part in the amateur races that take place on each section of the Tour De France on days before the pros do the real thing. Hm. I suppose we could get the Lear to come and pick the chaps up at Strandhill. Couple of brown enveloped should swing it. Wink wink and other external clues to the ecstacy of deep ego massage

    Anyway, I was thinking about this painful dilemma and began think of it in economic terms and then it hit home. It was my delinquent knowlege of ecomonics that made me realise that what I am facing is a question of morality. If I’d never cared about economics then the question would have never ocurred to me in a nanoosecond. My delinquent knowledge of economics proved the proverb that too much knowledge is dangerous while ignorance is heaven. Would I like to back to being ignorant. Hmm maybe

    I wished the bastards had educated me better instead of leaving me to figure it out for myself. I got there evenutally but spent too much time kicking around of a piece of ground im my hometown

    I made a meaningful connection between economics and morality and without even thinking about it I knew there was a divine link. It was a moment of extreme clarity you understand bohyo. A profound link and not just the type of two plus two equals 33 link that is made on the hoof by some. Thing is David I have always suspected that you are not of this world and that you have access to higher powers. Tonight I realised just magical your powers are David and it had me wondering why you are just ‘David’ and not ‘Sir David’. It is completely outrageous in my opinon Sir

    I believe that in a hundert years there will stand a statue of thee on O’Connell Street. In my ubmle opinon it should be renamed McWillaims Way and I can assure you sir that myself and all proper thinking chaps I know will do everything in our power to see and make sure that everything right and proper is done by thee. Even it it takes years after thee had turned to hashes

    I was leaning against a pole outside Easons on O’Connell Street in Sligo dragging on a rollie and the world felt charmed and free. The sun split the trees and the breeze was close enough to suggest late July had stepped in a month early

    The warm sea air reminded me of Blackpool in the warm summer of ’72 and Deans, Dalglish and Macari but there was no Son Of My Father blasting from the nearby pubs. Boy there was a lot of fun in 1972. Hell was all that 40 years ago? Jeez how time passes and how so little fun there is now. My gerneration (The Who inc) are lucky in that we remember the 70s. They were alright. Where is the Dirty Dirty mob when we need animals to remind us how far we have evolved as a species. I ask you

    We got more than our money’s worth on this particular afternoon and everyone in town wore a smile. A good looking woman smiled at me and Ireland looked happy and life went on as it always does and always will. It felt great to be 47 rather than 27 and life felt free and easy. Free, easy and breezy. It’s all in the mind

    I laughed when thinking of my 20s and all the stupid things I worried about. So much wasted energy over figments of an imagination conditioned and controlled by a lifetime of fear. There is no fear on days like today. Hang that for a game of cops and robbers as life is too brief for any of that craic right?

    I thought: does weather affect the economy. Immediately I though ‘massively’ without knowing why but I did not want to dwell on deep thoughts on such a fine day. One day in deep winter I might consult Mr McWilliams on these intellectual matters but not today

    My mind was on simple pleasures like trout fishing and watercolour painting. Doing physical work around the gaff was liberating and I wished I had an allotment. Hard work in the day and warm brown beer and a game of chess in the evening with the English cunt who keeps beating me. He calls me a Scottsh twat but I get my own by relating the legend of Bannockburn and we have a great rapport

    That sort of thing. A game of bowls or dominoes. No one does these things now. It’s a fucking shame. Back in the 80s’ guys on the dole could afford to play bowls and go for a pint twice a week. Try it now. Not a chance. We are confined to four walls. Austerity you understand – bow thy head in blind subservience Irish cousins. Take it proper up the boys gate

    Can we reclaim some land and create public bowling greens and allotments. I believe everyone in Ireland should have an allotment if they want one. We all want it and we all want to do such things in the evenings that will make is feel human again after the twighlight zone of the 9 to 5. Then again Ireland has no sense of community or civic duty. If you can’t make a pound it’s not with a ***te

    Despite the boarded up shops and fast food joints selling pink slime burgers me and she went for drives to high viewponts in south Sligo and the world was forgotten. It felt great to be in the spiritual home in the wild spots away from forms of electronic communications and for 4 days there was no phone, no tv, no internet. Pure heaven

    It was a cold June but now on the Sligo mountains the air is close and warm. There was no where in the world i’d rather be and so agreed she

    We have two fine months of summer to look forward to and we should get out and about and make the most of it. The pornographers of doom will have their work cut out because I have a feeling we are in for a warm summer. No one will be listeing. Unless the news and reporting is exceptional. Don’t hold your breath

    I regret that the Irish cant have a communal event like the day we had in Glasgow in 1991. There were 3 locations in tbe city where large stages we erected for free public perfomances by the top bands in Scotland who played for free. Scottish bands will always play for free if it is a community event. And no Bono was not there even though he once thought he was a Glaswegian

    On Glasgow green Deacon Blue were closing the evening but Big Country were on before and them and they stole the show. Deacon Blue were brilliant but the people went home on the warm Glasgow night humming ‘Chance’ from Big Country. Scotland was United for a day. Imagine that happening here. Here Bono have you got time for a free gig? Haw haw haw. And that is the difference Irish Brothers

    What can I do for my community.
    Not what can my commumity can do for me.

    That Brothers is the difference between integrity and self interest

    Rant over.

    Have a wonderful summer guys and god bless to you all

    Don’t work too hard David. Think of your other life.

    • joe hack

      No more heroes’ anymore-what ever happened … Sir Paul div you are your only hero.

      I agree we your thoughts on work but work is also too about being part of the community you may feel used and abused feel like a Gog it machine and a machine you don’t fully like and I could tell you lots about my hardships.

      You work to build a better place for those that follow it don’t matter that there are greedy people in the machine hogging the oil you do it for yourself and those that follow you.

      if you don’t have it your nature to change what you don’t like you should support those closest to your view of life they may not be your heroes they may be flawed but the land your in was created by others who sacrificed there lives and dignities for you over 1000s of years.

      Ireland is far better place than it ever was life is about survival and a fight to survive. I don’t like Kenny been my representative for Ireland is not a leader he not that sharp or cunning, on top of that his party is the last party I would vote for they are hand holders and appeasers, if they were been buggered by a seniors from Eaton they would tip their hat to them and ask would you like bugger me again sir.

      But being a politician is not an easy task putting yourself up for ridicule and isolation from the world takes courage your decisions have a great affect on people’s lives their are very few that become statesmen and are remembered for the good they have done there are of course those that do it for self interest but the public even when knowing this still vote for the likes of Lowey, they seem to think they are getting one up on “the Dublin government” they don’t take the time to inform themselves of the long-term consequences of their actions.

      I know a guy who said he was voting for a certain person (now a politician and minster) because she called to his door and sent leaflets telling him that she had done this and that, he did not even know what party she was with, he did not even know what she believed in or what her policies were he just knew that she got the local park tided she could have been a Nazi.
      Another guy came in to the bar and said he got it right! I asked what about, he said that he voted for the winner, I asked what he meant, he said he voted for the one he thought would get elected, he must have thought he was betting on a horse.

      There are all sorts of people in our land good and bad, it’s not only politicians that are corrupt it is a human condition rules try to fix this if you don’t keep at those that are in power, politicians, employers and the public, if you don’t keep plugging away even in the smallest way that you can you are saying that it is ok to be corrupt and that it is ok for others to decide your future via cronyism, corruption or just plain ignorance and appeasement type politicians, they have to be told and encouraged to fight, its not easy to go represent people who are not standing behind you there are few leaders in the in to Dail today.

      There are no heroes and I certainly don’ expect anyone to look after my interests, nor do I have any Idols but there are still some good people who need support and I and not talking about David McWilliams I won’t be supporting a stature for David McWilliams (anyways you cannot be an Irish and be an English Sir it unconstitutional) David McWilliams writes some good stuff now and then he beings economics to more people but also he does to make a handsome.

      Go fishing, have good day sir div, be your own hero you sound like a good man to me don’t give up. I am 48 and heading back to do a degree in a different directing, just got accepted today there still hope, get back into the machine, I know well what you are feeling, maybe you could start a blog called “life outside the machine” you have a gift in your writing style and your honesty is rare, I would love to go on your blog and be critical of it-when needed. I am off the smokes 5/6weeks and this blog is a distraction for me but reading about to you rolling a smoke was not good at all for me AH!

      I spent a lot of time working in Sligo from 90/01 from Galway to Donegal, Made bit of oil but I put back in to the economy and enjoyed it money needs to move hoarders of assets metal paper thingy’s live fear they be better off with tined beans they should be spending.

      Make the most of

      “Life Outside the Machine”

      Best of luck Sir Div

      • Paul

        All the best. I spent last Sunday amongst some evangelical Christians at a lovely church in Rathmines. We spoke about the morality of economics — which I believe in fundamentally. It was really wonderful to be with spiritual people who used expressions like love and giving as these expressions are supposed to be used.

        Keep smoking the rollies and standing against walls. Lots to be said for it Yin.

        Best and see you the Ablamov one of these days

        David

        • joe hack

          Rathmines; eh! Slumming it David;

          And you never bought me a beer in my parlour at Slattery’s, now voted one of the best places to live in Ireland, Rathmines that is, not the parlour.

          (From a Recent Irish Times poll)

          There was no mention of Dalkey maybe it had something to do with the neighbours

        • Thanks David. I am pleased you found people who are not afraid to talk about love. We need more love in this world and should give out all we have to give. It is the most important force in the universe and we can never have too much of it

          I will continue smoking the rollies and leaning against lamp posts. I will be friendly to anyone I meet and for the rest of my life I will be a good man. That’s all I can do

          I like explaining things in my own way and take the pee from time to time but I am sure you know I mean no malice David (Sir)

          I don’t have anything of value but over the past three years I have taken a lot of value from this blog. Feedback is everything and it nice when someone comments and makes us realise we are doing some good to someone somewhere

          Enjoy your hols David

      • Hey thanks Joe. I feel your empathy and it makes a difference. I am 47 but no one wants to listen. Christ we are old men. I will be my own hero Joe. Thanks for the heads up my friend

      • Wow. The Stranglers, No More Heroes, 1978?.
        And Duchess (1979). I was 14 and and now I am off to YouTube to seek out The Stranglers. Economics and politics are too tiresome on hot days like this

        We will be our own heroes joe. Really well put.

  34. Instead of chains of iron they now use chains of gold

  35. Stephen Kinsella has a great article on the Independent today .Its worth a read ……don’t miss it .

  36. Summer Madness

    While everyone are escaping onto the yellow brick road my thoughts are on ‘my street’. It is my belief that the name denoted by my local corporation ( Limerick) for the street I practice on …’is incorrect’, and I have requested their confirmation as I have absolute proof that I may be correct .

    As it stands it’s name is denoted as ‘a street’. While I can prove it is ‘a path’. However , I believe the residences and businesses might now consider it to become either ‘ an avenue ‘ or ‘a walk’ ….I won’t give up.

  37. molly

    On till we start the pay cuts and pension cuts with the government present and retired and I meen proper cuts , we will never see any real change in this country , because they have to lead by example.

  38. Original-Ed

    “France is the real weak link, because this country is pretending that it is a slightly shabby version of Germany. It is anything but. Its banking system is very fragile, it runs a large current account deficit and, while politically strong, it is economically weak.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532

    They’re still able to punch above their weight.

  39. joe hack

    On the bank guarantee scheming plan, I came up with a plan at the time the plan was to use the tax payer’s money to buy the properties off the developers instead of bailing out the banks.

    The tax payer would buy some of these properties a knock down prices the developers would then pay the banks, the banks and the developers may have ended up in the black or at least in the position to function. The tax payer would then sell or rent the homes to those on the housing list and others through policies already in place and thought new polices.

    A guaranteed return on an investment for the taxpayer as opposed to the tax payer paying interest rate to the troika the newly housed people would be paying this tax and would be happy to do so.

    The state may even make a profit and bond holders may want to invest after all they have very few options to invest anywhere else.

    This if nothing else would be in compliance with the constitution unlike the bank guarantee scheming more importantly it would also keep money in circulation and may help correct some imbalances in society.

    Today with the drop in properties prices this could still be done.

  40. joe hack

    On the bank guarantee scheming plan, I came up with a plan at the time the plan was to use the tax payer’s money to buy the properties off the developers instead of bailing out the banks.

    The tax payer would buy some of these properties a knock down prices the developers would then pay the banks, the banks and the developers may have ended up in the black or at least in the position to function.

    The tax payer would then sell or rent the homes to those on the housing list and others through policies already in place and thought new polices.

    A guaranteed return on an investment for the taxpayer as opposed to the tax payer paying interest rate to the troika the newly housed people would be paying this tax and would be happy to do so.

    The state may even make a profit and bond holders may want to invest after all they have very few options to invest anywhere else.

    This if nothing else would be in compliance with the constitution unlike the bank guarantee scheming more importantly it would also keep money in circulation and may help correct some imbalances in society.

    Today with the drop in properties prices this could still be done.

  41. joe hack

    On the bank guarantee scheming plan, I came up with a plan at the time the plan was to use the tax payer’s money to buy the properties off the developers instead of bailing out the banks.

    The tax payer would buy some of these properties a knock down prices the developers would then pay the banks, the banks and the developers may have ended up in the black or at least in the position to function.

    The tax payer would then sell or rent the homes to those on the housing list and others through policies already in place and thought new polices.

    A guaranteed return on an investment for the taxpayer as opposed to the tax payer paying interest rate to the troika the newly housed people would be paying this tax and would be happy to do so. The state may even make a profit and bond holders may want to invest after all they have very few options to invest anywhere else.

    This if nothing else would be in compliance with the constitution unlike the bank guarantee scheming more importantly it would also keep money in circulation and may help correct some imbalances in society.

    Today with the drop in properties prices this could still be done..

  42. Tony Brogan

    John williams a renowned economist expounds on the coming hyper inflationary depression in the US. Well worth the 35 mins

    http://usawatchdog.com/one-on-one-with-john-williams-of-shadowstats/

    • CitizenWhy

      There are other quite skeptical opinions of John Williams. This is one of the entries (tehre are more than one) on John Williams nd hois newletter company:

      From Wikipedia:

      Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic/unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. This is because he states these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons.

      You can join for $175 a year to read all about it.

      The irony of the entire website is that Williams takes government reported statistics to make his apocalyptic predictions, after flatly stating on many occasions that government reported numbers are “deceptive,” “rigged,” and “manipulated.”[1] Take a second and let that sink in, too long might give a normal person a stroke.

      John Williams (aka Walter J. Williams) claims to be an economic consultant that possesses a BA in economics and an MBA from Dartmouth college. He claims to have worked for 25 years in many fortune 500 companies completing economic forecasting models. That is till the US “changed” how it reported statistics, so he was tasked with fixing all of their models to correct the problem. He claims to have went about telling the world about it on The New York Times front page (no articles written by him are found in the archive) and Investors Business Daily (no articles are found in the archive), along with meetings with governmental statistics agencies. He started Shadowstats in 2004 to rave at the world in a more public venue, but still advertises for consulting roles on Shadowstats.[2]

      He is a chronic doom and gloomer that first garnered notice when he predicted the Dow was going to close at 1,500 by the end of 1989 in an article by USA Today.

      The Dow ended that year at 2,753.
      [edit] What he does

      Williams posts older statistics that have fallen out of favor by governmental agencies stating that they are being suppressed by the government to make the economy look better. This ignores the fact that these measures are still calculated and published along side the newer methods of looking at the data.[3] The various agencies also publish all of their backup data as well, which for some reason contains all the things he claims they are trying to suppress (where he claims to data mine)…between his claims that it is rigged and manipulated.

      Again, don’t ponder the last statement very long.

      Williams loves to take the number of unemployed and add the people who have stopped looking for new jobs, those employed part time and want full time, and those who looked for a job at least once in the last year but are not working now. What he doesn’t realize is that these are very subjective numbers dependent on questioning people…which is why they were dropped from many reports. When uncertainty increases often times a non-working spouse or college student that didn’t want a job before will start looking for work, and would count. People who wish to have a job they might not be qualified for but are working part time would be counted. It would also include those who quit the workforce to raise children, then came back.[4]

      Williams also believes that taking into account the improvement in quality of items in inflation calculations in comparison to older items is a trick. This is when some one realized it would be hard to compare the price of a 19″ black and white TV and a 32″ LCD TV along with inflation. Williams claims that this “trick” was done to reduce Social Security cost of living increases and reduce government outlays, by bribing the BLS.

      Williams also believes that limiting categories for inflation calculations is wrong, meat is meat, as he believes only inflation raises prices of items and hits everything equally at all times. This of course is a basic economic tenet called substitution, and ignores examples like as energy prices increase the more energy intensive items (producing beef) would increase faster then less energy intensive items (producing chicken). Williams logic also ignores price changes due to supply and demand from changing consumption, disruptions in supply chains, and legal issues.

      Williams believes that any GDP number is wrong because it takes into account too high of an inflation and economic growth rate. He is certainly entailed to his opinion, but these are largely measured numbers.
      [edit]

      • Tony Brogan

        Hi CitizenWhy

        No problem being critical. however you are not quoting Wikipidea you are copying from
        Rationalwiki which is the personal opipion of an individual blog site.

        Here is A google list of John Williams commentaries and the naysayers are individual bloggers.

        http://www.google.ca/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=1&oq=John+williams+shadow+stats&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4SKPT_enCA449CA449&q=john+williams+shadow+stats+wiki&gs_upl=0l0l0l51691lllllllllll0&aqi=g3g-K2

        I have heard of good reports on Williams methodology from a number of engaged web sites and financial commentaries. I think you need to review a little further.

        my own experience of inflation and living standards accords with the Williams viewpoint rather than the government stats. For one thing only “core” inflation is reported. energy and food are too “volatile” to be included. This ignores the fact that energy and food are the two largest purchases of the poorer. Ask the people on the street what the inflation rate is and it sure isn’t 2% as the answer. More like 8%.

        My personal food bill is up from 300 a month to 450 a month over 3 years. This I know. That is a growth of 12% p.a. It is high though I may be buying more organic than I used to.

        It is well acknowledged that government agencies are manipulating financial data and interfering in market operations to the point there is no such thing as a “free” market any longer. Why would they not include the perception that things are better than they are. Reporting an adjusted inflation rate helps to delude the people a little longer.

        I stick with John Williams

  43. Growth

    The only growth I can see now is my toenail .Many economists proclaim that new technology , inventions and research will bring growth .Currently , I believe they are wrong .It may bring ‘green shoots’ but that is all .I have a reason.

    At the time of the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in England initially there was growth .It was in the beginning a retarded growth because there was fear that the then monach would then distribute ‘rights’ to profits to his close entourage and the inventors and entrepreneurs were dubious what directions their new found wealth might take .

    To aleviate their fears the parliament introduced ‘The Statutes of Monopolies in 1623′ in an effort to curb the rights of the monach and protect the inventors by means of ‘ PATENTS’ . This was the moment of the beginning of seperate Royality and Rights for the commoners who register their new founded wealth of inventions.

    Today there is a parallel in this country where all rights favour vested interests and the consequences are that indiginous growth is negligible .

    Without proper amended laws to protect the indiginous interests in our own country then all economic green shoots just dissapear and the rise of Slim Economics prevails as in Mexico .

  44. Tony Brogan

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9363445/RBS-and-Lloyds-drawn-into-rate-rigging-scandal.html

    RBC and Lloyds accused of fixing interest rates. funny hoe central banks do it all the time as a matter of policy so is the pot calling the kettle black?

  45. Tony Brogan

    Sorry RBS not RBC

  46. joe hack

    The euro is dead long live the Euro

    Love it or like it that is the way it will be, that is what was written a long time ago.

    It will be democracy which will have to fight for, democracy which is far from perfect. The tool of money/ fear is the winner.

    It still a long way to go before full integrating into the USE maybe 10- 20+ years
    I think you called wrong David, the euro will last and grow you did not take enough account of politics, history and the realisation by politicians on the consequences of the future with no EU/Euro.

    I think on economics alone it may have been the right conclusion but I am not an economist.

    For those who want the euro a 49% no vote on the ESM would have been better for Ireland and your support was for a no was well merited I think the election in Greece proved this when Syriza just got a few % less than New Democracy it was a very powerful message.

    Full integration still concerns me and I don’t want it I don’t want to live in the New Orleans of the EU.
    We should still have a plan B and we still need a debate on our future euro/eu now more urgent than before.

    It’s safe for David to take Euros on the Hols at least for now, but he should be spending them here, or will that mater now or in the future.

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