January 2, 2012

Ireland frozen in an anxiety recession

Posted in Ireland · 205 comments ·
Share 

Did your mother ever tell you to be afraid of umbrellas because they could take your eye out? When I was a child, the humble umbrella transformed itself into a weapon of mass destruction in our house capable of all classes of contortions, which would lead directly to poking some misfortunate’s eye out. I have no idea where the fear of the upturned umbrella came from, but someone, somewhere must have seen an eye poked out by the sharp end of a brolly rib – maybe it was my own mother or my granny. But the upshot was excessive caution around
umbrellas.

Now, obviously, the umbrella anxiety is run-of-the-mill, but there are many real examples where some truly traumatic experience changes the way people behave for years.

For example, my mother lost her brother to meningitis in the 1940s when he was only eight years old. This led to her subsequently having excessive anxiety about any pains her own children might have in their necks and the base of their skulls. So when I was a kid, a stiff neck, headaches or any rashes prompted all sorts of fears and dire diagnoses around the kitchen table. In psychology this reaction is called “fear conditioning”. Unlike phobias, it is actually quite logical. Excessive anxiety is not that abnormal, because these deep personal experiences stay with us and change the way we see the world.

Imagine if the economy worked the same way. Or more accurately that we behaved the same way when it came to money. Studies have shown that the generation which lived through the Great Depression in the US remained excessively cautious and frugal throughout the rest of their lives because of the searing experience of the Depression.

Could this happen here? Has the traumatic effect of the collapse in property values, the explosion of debt and the realisation that many tens of thousands are broke and will never be able to get out of debt, led to excessive nervousness about debt and spending? Like my mother and meningitis, has the crash resulted in excessive caution which will affect how we behave in the future? If so, we might be in what could be called an “anxiety recession”.

An anxiety recession is very different from the “normal” recession we experienced in the 1980s.

Look at the chart (taken from a paper written by Japanese economist Richard Koo*). It shows anxiety recession in Ireland in the past few years and how it materialises. Ordinary Irish people began to save and pay back debt in l ate 2006 when they realised that the housing market
had peaked. Since then, we have been saving enormous amounts of our income. Irish firms took a while to cop on that the economy had turned but, since 2008, firms have been saving and paying down debt as fast as they can. Irish households were borrowing 10 per cent of GDP in 2006; now we are saving just under 5 per cent of GDP. This is an extraordinary turnaround.

If we add together the change in spending and saving behaviour of families and firms, we see that 21.55 per cent of GDP which was being spent is now being saved. Therefore, 21.55 per cent of GDP has been taken out of the economy. Of the firms, the most essential sector in this analysis are the banks because they are paying down their debts, shrinking lending and trying to suck in deposits. All this is reinforcing the debt anxiety of the already-indebted population.

We can also see that, as we stopped spending, the government started spending to offset this. One way of looking at government spending is that, without the government running huge deficits, the fall in GDP and rise in unemployment would have been much sharper.

The anxiety recession is different to the typical recession in one crucial aspect: people are so indebted that they don’t want to borrow,and banks are so indebted that they don’t want to lend, no matter how low the interest rate. In a traditional recession, the economy slows down, people get laid off and interest rates fall. This fall in interest rates prompts people to invest and spend, and the banks start to lend because that’s how they make money. In time, demand comes back and monetary policy works as normal.

But in an anxiety recession, people want to pay down their debts because they have been traumatised by too much debt. This is what Keynes described as a “liquidity trap” in the 1930s. It was also what happened in Japan and what led to the 20-year post-crash slump in Japan. The economy didn’t recover because of the anxiety about spending and the excessive caution of the average Japanese who had lived through the 1980s boom and had seen their assets collapse in
value.
If people remain excessively anxious, then the recovery can’t happen. Many economists argue – not necessarily in Ireland, but elsewhere - that the answer to an anxiety recession is for someone or some institution to break that anxiety by spending and keeping demand in the economy from collapsing totally. The implication of this is that the Irish government should continue to run deficits and continue spending, rather than cutting back.

But what if the state is also bankrupt? What happens if the financial markets don’t want to lend to you – as is the case in Ireland?

One obvious solution is to impose capital controls and force – or at least incentivise – Irish savers to finance the government. Thus the government recycles the savings of the anxious savers, thereby
propping up demand, and eventually allowing the broken balance sheets of the Irish people to be repaired. Once the balance sheet is repaired, normal economics will resume once again.

But this could take time, and the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to possibly 200 per cent – where Japan’s is now. Doing something like this would require the state to leave the euro, impose capital controls and issue its own currency all in one weekend. Even if you thought it was the right thing to do, it might be a tall order to execute. Plan B perhaps?
The other way out is to have a massive programme of debt relief because without the debt, people’s anxiety lifts. This would mean defaulting on huge amounts of debts and stiffing the ECB in the
process, because the only way Irish banks could absorb all this domestic debt relief would be if they defaulted on their main creditor, the ECB. This must still be part of plan A. If neither of these choices is being entertained, then the anxiety recession looks likely to condemn this country to possibly a decade of stagnation. It is hard to see – with the huge debt we are carrying, and the trauma associated with the crash – how the economy can perform otherwise. If this excessive caution proves to be enduring, rather than temporary, the economy will not rebound for years. If you doubt that this can happen and can go on for years, consider that the Nikkei Index, Japan’s stock market, ended 2011 at a 19-year low.

Happy New Year – and be careful of that umbrella in the hall.


  1. uchrisn

    Always enjoy reading Davids analysis, keep up the insightful work in 2012.

  2. Anxiety Grief

    North Korea showed the world a new meaning on the death of Kim Jong Il .

  3. Happy New Year to all subscribers!

  4. Thomas Cooke

    I agree with the overall analysis, the only point I would make is that this anxiety is reinforced by a deep lack of confidence in national and EU leadership and until this confidence is restored it will be difficult to get ordinary people to re engage in the general economy In addition I think there is an underlying fear that the world economy is built on unsustainable principles, ever cheap labour required to produce everyday goods, dependence on finite water, energy and food resources. Ordinary people understand these things but when we see world leaders ploughing ahead with policies that don’t address climate change and are wobbly on renewable energy targets it’s no wonder we are anxious is it?

    • Eireannach

      @ThomasCooke

      I totally agree. We are facing shortages in oil, world grain reserves, all kinds of metals and other natural resources like phosphates for agricultural fertilisers, and in many parts of the world fresh water.

      We can’t continue with ‘normal’ for much longer and we know it, hence the hesitancy at so many levels.

      The very last thing we need is a mindless return to spending and squandering, thereby ignoring the unsustainability of our lifestyles. That would simply lead to kicking the can down the road and an even bigger crash later.

    • CitizenWhy

      Excellent point. You could call it Leadership Anxiety. Hunkering down because you have no say in governance and think those who are calling the shots do not have your interests at heart at all.

      Defaulting on the debts to the banks could break some of the anxiety.

    • Yep, exactly, “once bitten twice shy” springs to mind. People are waking to the fact that the 1% use us and treat us like idiots. This ruling class also has the ear of the politicians with whom they’re constantly schmoozing.

      The economy is the people as a whole, not the 1%, and when it’s run in reverse as it has been, it gets into trouble.

      The answer? Reverse things. Default on public and private debt, then put in politicians who will never sell the people out to the 1% – the banksters and parasitical shysters.

  5. mrlennyman

    Seriously… Is there no chance of you swapping the quill for the quip and getting into Dail Eireann with an executable plan for the dithering gombeens who are the executors of the Irish state? Left to their own devices the elected members of the Irish Parliament may just as well execute every last Paddy fustering under the mattress sniffing out loose change.

    I hope you get heard in high places.

    The whole world is in a state of Chassis.

    • Deco

      Well, it nearly happened.

      But David and his colleagues did not get enough time.

      And they did not get enough time, because the Irish Labour Party got wind of what was happening, and pushed to have the election held as soon as possible in early 2011.

      Lesson : the existing political options greatly detest competition from the Punch & Judy show that they run.

      The vested interests likewise, will require the people to not trust, that which they cannot reliably trust to be used for their own interests.

  6. Deco

    Until the Irish state actually stops taking the people for granted, and being loaded with deceit, there will be very little movement with respect to Irish people loaning money to the Irish state.

    The fact is that the Irish people have been taught a painful lesson in the last thirty years with regard to trusting the Irish state.

    Just look at the HSE for example.

    If the government is serious about fixing the economy, then they will cut out the PR-stuntery and fix the inefficient, ineffective, insider dominated state system. And they won’t.

    To fix this country, we need to kill the economics strategy of the gombeen. And this will not happen. The Irish state exists to protect and validate Gombeen economics. It is making matters worse.

    Therefore, if you are a saver – keep saving, like crazy, and don’t trust the system. It is a fraud. We have former ESRI senior representatives telling us this morning that the ESRI was compromised. Well, we kind of knew all along.

    There is a concept of synergy, and it is dead when you have a culture of deceit in an organization. It is dead in the Irish state, because the leadership is abysmal, the deceit it rampant, and vested interests like IBEC and ICTU are in control.

    Folks, that is it. We are structurally banjaxed.

    We need REFORM. Massive, thoroigh, wholescale reform.

    And folks it is not going to happen in today’s Ireland. It was more likely to happen in 1980s Ireland, than today. The wealth in circulation in the binge years corrupted too many people, and until there is a capitulation, this will not be cleansed out of the system. We are in an intellectual trap that is simply too great.

    And the media will not facilitate any emergence from that, because IBEC don’t want it to happen.

    • Pedro Nunez

      +1
      with due respect we are grossly underlead and overmanaged at present. Our ‘cheese’ has definitely been moved, but we seem to have no clue how to make more cheese. (just divide up the pie in smaller slices, zero sum game)
      http://www.bainvestor.com/Who-Moved-My-Cheese.html

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

      “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
      – Henry Ford

      When one finds oneself astride a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. Employing a better jockey, using a thicker whip or hitching two dead horses together in the hope of gaining more progress is not usually sucessful.
      But we live in gombeenesque hope.
      HNY,

      • Deco

        The Irish state does not ask the people what it wants.

        It tells them what it will provide them with.

        And then delivers something else altogether.

        • redriversix

          Spot on Deco…

          The last priority this Government has is us,the people.

          They are first to promise repayments on debts that were not ours and we are the last to find out we have to PAY FOR IT.

          We can provide for ourselves…

          Cancel your debts NOW

          NEW YEAR..NEW BEGINNINGS

          • Deco

            Bank debt is not sovereign debt.

            The ECB and EU Commision are morally bankrupt. They are completely in ignorance of the concept of moral hazard.

            The idiots who loaned money to that Toxic Bank of Drumm and Drummer deserve to get roasted for their lack of due diligence.

            Kevin Cardiff, Biffo, Bertosconi, and Patrick Neary need to get hung from a bridge for their failure to do the job that the Irish people paid them to do.

            In the days of Ancient Rome, the supervising engineer would stand under a new arch when the supports where being removed for the first time. He was expected to have that much confidence in his work. We need to go back to that to cut out the sloppiness and incompetence. Instead we are paying these wasters sinful pension packages.

        • Deco, Old Hammurabi had a code which would sort out a lot of our ills.

          228. If a builder build a house for some one and complete it, he shall give him a fee of two shekels in money for each sar of surface.

          229 If a builder build a house for some one, and does not construct it properly, and the house which he built fall in and kill its owner, then that builder shall be put to death.

          230. If it kill the son of the owner the son of that builder shall be put to death.

          231. If it kill a slave of the owner, then he shall pay slave for slave to the owner of the house.

          232. If it ruin goods, he shall make compensation for all that has been ruined, and inasmuch as he did not construct properly this house which he built and it fell, he shall re-erect the house from his own means.

          233. If a builder build a house for some one, even though he has not yet completed it; if then the walls seem toppling, the builder must make the walls solid from his own means.

          http://eawc.evansville.edu/anthology/hammurabi.htm

  7. Lyndon Jones

    Glad to see that Davids thinking is more “up to date” he is coming to conclusions. David thinks that default on the ECB is an option ….how ludicrous , there is no need to panic what will happen is the continuous slow grid of deleveraging which will take a decade.
    The deficit will be .5% of GDP by 2015 if we pass the referendum so that that sorted .
    Sovereign debt will be 200% of GDP by 2013 we will be more like Japan in this regard it will just stay there and be rolled over we will never have surpluses to pay it off even though thats the right thing to do , slowly chip away at it.
    Ireland will NEVER be able to go back to the markets we are next after Greece , we will be in a “program” for the next decade.

    • redriversix

      Lyndon,How can you possibly call a Default Ludicrous..?

      We, as a Nation simply do not have the money to repay these criminal debts,period,its very simple.

      Fancy accounting cannot cover the fact there is simply no money.

      As a compromise, we could over 0.5cents in the euro to bondholders and the ECB.

      Commence payment 12 months after agreement.

      The people also need to cancel unrealistic debts that have been built up over the last several years and plan their budget now for the year , putting Family first and then debt obligations.

      Criminal Banks got bailed through lies and deceit……I think Families are worth infinitely more than some faceless Corporations with a failing history.

      Cancel your subscription to fear and move on now……..Don,t wait for permission,look after yourselves NOW.

      Their is no money

      RR6

    • Rory

      The idea that we cannot go back to the markets by stiffing the banks/ECB is ludicrous. It is regularly peddaled by our media, witness the Indo and IT columnists on 106 a few days ago. As David pointed out, it is how capitalism works. He went and asked the brokers what would they do if we defaulted and they answered that they would buy irish if we got rid of the debt.
      http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/09/28/why-the-markets-would-thank-us-for-defaulting

      • redriversix

        Hey Rory

        I agree,any sane-minded business person would be delighted to do business with Ireland.IF..we got ride of unrealistic promises and oppressive “deals” with EUROPE / ECB ETC.

        If Lyndon is a WUM,then he /she is playing a dangerous games on a website were people are seeking help or answers.

        Financial strike now

        FAMILY FIRST

        Best
        RR6

    • Lyndon, What class of a sock puppet are you anyway? Defaulting on ECB debt is not only an option, it is an inevitability as things stand.

      And you’re fine with wiping out the economy as the only reasonable means forward? Mind you, to be fair your not the only Irish person I have recent heard spouting this nonsense in the last week.

      I had to laugh when I passed by the Enterprise Ireland stand at T2 arrivals, encouraging software engineers to come back and work in Ireland. So long as your kind of thinking prevails, which it seems to, I see absolutely no chance of ever returning to Ireland. And why the bloody hell would I or anybody else come back to put up with that nonsense?

      Happy new year!
      -Liam.

      • Johno

        Im guessing Lyndon is what is known on soccer internet boards as a WUM ( wind up merchant ) and is just going against the general theme of this website to get a reaction from people. Could be even a a blogger on here who wants to have fun or create a debate from a goverment point of view. I dont take anything he ( or she ) writes very seriously and if you ignore the wum they normally go away.

  8. molly66

    Why would David want to go into advise the government when they clearly want to follow the 5point crap plan ,hit the ground running.
    More like the destruction plan and the killing of a country you think 2011 was a crap year wait till the express train goes thundering down the 2012 track or should I say,road and can.

  9. irishminx

    In a world where the GFC wasn’t being man U factured, I’d agree with you David, however, the GFC is man made by the greedy elite! They knew that people would be anxious and would react as they have, thereby playing into the elites plan!

    I wish you & yours health, peace & love in 2012 and to all on this site :)

  10. Question for rural subscribers?

    Will the council engineers who told us we were good to go for a septic tank be the same people who tell us we’re not okay for a septic tank?

    How much will we have to pay these experts for their expert advice?

    And if their expert advice is that we have to change our system to a bio-cycle.
    …. Where does that €8,000 to €10,000 come from?

    And why would I pay €50 entrance fee (to register my tank)to get me in to the above game in the first place?

    I’m all for a clean environment and fixing ineffective tanks………but why do I smell more than sewerage here?

    • Eireannach

      @Paul

      If you don’t fix your septic tank you’ll be fined for being in breach of an EU Directive passed into law in 1975 concerning the quality of ground water.

      In 2004 Cavan County Council was found to be the only administration in Ireland which was correctly enforcing the 1975 Directive.

      The council engineers were idiots for letting you go ahead with construction of a non-compliant septic tank and have been found out by the EU, which now directly runs this country, and will continue to run the country for at least 10 more years, by which time all septic tanks will be compliant and ground water quality will be protected as per 1975 Directive.

      Same goes for the 20-40% leakage of fresh water from pipes.

      • Hi Eireannach,
        I understand the Directive and it’s rationale. However who’s definition of a working tank do we work on?
        And given that a waste disposal system was installed in good faith. Should it be deemed to be insufficent 10 years later. Where does the money to remove and replace the system come from.
        (We’re talking €8000 to €10,000 which I simply do not have and will not prioritise ahead of my childrens college fees)

        Given that some of my taxes undoubtedly found their way into several urban sewerage schemes? Is it unreasonable to look for costs for these “new” rural sewerage issues?

        • Eireannach

          Your council engineers who gave advice on the suitability of the septic tank gave the wrong advice if it transpires that the tank is not compliant and you’ll need to fork out €8-10K.

          Your council engineer(s) is/are at fault and you should club together with others in a similar situation to hold them to account.

    • As a rural subscriber, I can tell you that these Professors of Septic Tanks might be offered a closer inspection of said tanks than they anticipated should they loom into view.

      Enough is enough.

    • redriversix

      Hi Paul

      Ask the Council to give you a letter stating your tank conforms to the latest regulations if you have not got one already.

      If you have one,That’s Great.

      If they won’t give you one for whatever reason that’s Great too.
      It is the Council responsibility to keep up to date with regulation.

      Dig up all receipts and paperwork relating to same and contact Council re above and then wait

      “what do you know about septic tank’s ? it’s their responsibility to make sure everything is compliant,that’s what you pay for..!!”

      Best

      RR6

    • 33square

      jobs for the boys

  11. Adam Byrne

    subscribe.

  12. Tim

    All the best (possible)in 2012 to all here. Thanks for all the analysis and interesting reading.

  13. Harve

    David,

    Interesting analysis indeed. It seems that the only “shot in the arm” to boost demand that the government is relying on is an upturn in the world economy to lead to a boost in exports from Ireland. That is insufficient, and yes, something more substantial needs to be done.

    I also agree that the fear and anxiety that has gripped the Irish nation will be difficult to shake-off. At least though, with the large numbers of Irish people emigrating, they are escaping this fear and anxiety and when things begin to turnaround, whenever that happens, Ireland will need to encourage the Irish diaspora to invest in Ireland again. The diaspora are going to be fundamental to Ireland’s economic future.

    Given the constitutional reform that is promised to take place in Ireland in this decade, it may be worthwhile thinking of ways in which the voice of the Irish diaspora could be represented in the Irish parliamentary system? Perhaps, having representation of the Irish diaspora in a reformed Seanad? With the most competent of these voices being considered for possible roles in government? Idealistic thinking maybe, given the cronyism in Ireland, but worth thinking about in my opinion.

    All the best for 2012!

    • Nina Ogden

      As Franklin Delano Roosevelt said, as he announced in his first inaugural speech that he was toppling the money changers from their high thrones, “There is nothing to fear but fear itself…nameless, faceless fear.”

  14. Juanjo R

    David McW – you write about a lack of spending but can I ask what could that be on?

    There are about 2 million housing units for 1.7 million households in Ireland. Housing lists/shortages are artifical – if the invisible hand of the market worked on prices like it is puported to by neo-liberals then the most basic properties should be costing no more than a reasonable family car right now.

    Everybody has mobiles, PCs are cheap, xboxes & playstations and all things elecronic abound.

    We all eat enough – too much probably.

    The average car in Ireland is relatively new. The NTC and bank financing ensured that.

    People have all types of furniture and all kinds of luxury items that were a struggle to accumulate 15-20 years ago.

    In general many goods have never been cheaper to buy in Ireland – necessary or unneccessary and the Irish have lots of everything.

    What is there left to buy ( or build if you like ), en mass, that is actually needed?

    • Happy New Year to our host, his family and all here.

      Juanjo R
      “What is there left to buy ( or build if you like ), en mass, that is actually needed?”

      You have just identified “Peak Capitalism”, so to speak.

      One of the biggest headaches for China is who’s going to buy what we make which IMHO could lead to manufacturing trade wars between the cheapie manufacturers. (But I’ll leave that proposition for Davids next article)

      My forecast for 2012 is that the big finance boys will cop on that they cannot squeeze any more, to do so will be counter-productive and they will cause positive change to occur.

      Head down and A**e up folks. This will improve.

      • Juanjo R

        To be honest Furrylungs I was a litle disengenious in asking the question. I did’t expect that there is much of an answer. I guess I was trying to underline the point I was making.

        I was also trying to avoid talking in terms of current account surpluses or boxing the concept in complicated terms.

        You call it all ‘peak capitalism’ – I don’t disagree but it like to ask if you have a source that expands on this label/idea – would you know has a good writer written about it extensively? An answer would be appreciated!

        My only comphrensive reading on this area – in general economic terms I mean – comes from an economics book by the Economist magazine helpfuly called ‘Economics’. Its got a bit around chapter 3 dealing with Americas Imbalances talking about this stuff obliquely and in in historical terms of how America ran trade or current account surpluses/deficts as it grew and how it went through certain comphrensible stages and has spent the last 30 years or so in a new debt led growth phase.

        I’m curious to hear of some other thinking on this matter, perhaps a bit more left of field.

        BTW I know theres probably lots of stuff on this area in terms of green/sustainable ideas. I’m more curious about how the economics profession look at it – if they are.

      • 33square

        surely you’re not suggesting that infinite growth is impossible… hogwash :D

    • Wow! I don’t have everything I’d like to have here in Australia. The Irish do? I must emigrate!

      Hey! It’s all about EFFECTIVE DEMAND, Juanjo R.

      • Juanjo R

        Sorry? what do you mean? Australia? I not with you. Is that sarcasm? I am I supposed to argue maturely with some one line obtuse sarcastic remark?

        Effective demand? What is your point? You want to engage in some pseudo-scientific demand-supply concept that only works in the imaginary bubble of a perfect market?

      • Juanjo R

        Plus I can read you don’t need to use capitals.

        If you are angry go take out else where.

  15. Dorothy Jones

    Dear David
    All the best for 2012 to you and your family, a happy new year to posters as well.
    January is often a month a month concerned the theme of weight loss, and our current Government has continued the theme of sickening activities of the previous one. They have allowed two parallel universes to exist. Now, certain powers may have been curtailed due to the loss of sovereignty, but a large degree of control remains with them.
    ‘Put you off your food’ news by Government over the Season include:
    - The announcement of pending cuts in relation to persons with disabilities in tandem with the publication of expenses allowed to ex-civil servant. Look at the expenses allowed to the Taoiseach before Brian Cowen [I cannot bear to write their name, they are sucvh an object of disgust to me], and others.
    - The continued existence of NAMA of the lack of change to their FOI non-requirements. This bloated entity is equivalent to a species in the environment with no natural enemies; here’s an extract on same from Wiki:
    quote:……when the pests are introduced to new habitats without their natural enemies, natural control often fails and results in pest outbreaks….:unquote

    This at the same time as the appointment of of Mr Pádraig Ó Ríordáin [POR], Managing Partner of Arthur Cox {AC] by Leo Varadkar as chairman of the DAA. You could not make this up. Now maybe it was the Christmas Grinch in me, but I feel that the publication of this news in the National Press on Dec 2011 was ‘a good day to bury bad news’. Why?

    - [POR] Appointed chairman of the DAA 111221
    - Previously Head of the Financial Legislation Advisory Forum; a body to draft lighter regulation for the financial industry in consultation with Brian Lenihan; quietly disbanded in 2009

    AC legal advisors to
    - Brian Lenihan and Govt during banking crisis
    - NAMA [drafted legislation, highest earners since its establishment on 'legal advice']
    - NTMA
    - Dept of Finance
    - Bank of Ireland
    - Bank of Scotland [Ireland]
    - Anglo Irish Bank
    - DAA [Main 'legal advisors' to DAA, now on Board]

    See a pattern here?

    Expect more of this scandalous lack of responsibility in 2012 by this Government. Grim stuff indeed.

    Quotew from namawinelake today 120102 sums it up: ‘Funny, was reviewing dissertation on leadership for masters student over Xmas, and couldn’t relate principles at all to our leaders.,

  16. Malcolm McClure

    The best cure for anxiety is understanding. David is doing sterling service in this regard. We can all help by contributing positive ideas and links that can illuminate some of the complex problems our politicians are faced with.
    The fundamental problem is that it is impossible to solve the eternal economic triangle that has confidence, adjustment and liquidity at its corners.
    http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/triangle.html.
    Fix any two and the third goes haywire, so governments are always faced with a difficult choice as to which two priorities will benefit people most in existing circumstances.
    Our government has decided to neglect the Confidence corner, which is the fundamental reason people feel anxious.

  17. ray_m

    Seriously, the crap McWilliams is coming out with these days. I stopped reading when I got to the end of the paragraph dealing with umbrellas and his granny’s upshot. Pure drivvle.

  18. Happy New Year,

    Ray,

    I have to respond to your comment re “drivel”. Tell me what is your best analysis of the present situation? Spell it out and lets have a discussion.

    Best

    David.

    • redriversix

      Good Evening David

      Happy new year to you and your family and I wish you a peaceful and contented 2012.

      As regards to “ray” ,David….it’s all a question of mind over matter…!!!

      “we don’t mind because he doesn’t matter” !!

      Financial strike NOW

      Family first

      Best

      RR6

    • StephenKenny

      In my view, such comments are not worth a reply (having checked back to see where the umbrellas and grannys were mentioned).

      Had he suggested that he’d read the whole article I might have had some sympathy. We’ve spent 20 years, as economies as a whole, spending more than we get in – ‘bridging’ – and now the suggestion is that to get out of this problem it is sensible to simply carry on borrowing.

      If we carry on bridging, all the evidence that we have – the last 20 to 40 years – is that we’ll carry on being stupid. It won’t be the same stupid, but it will be stupid, and the result will simply be that there’ll be another huge load of debt that the current crop of school children will have to deal with.

      Bearing in mind that default merely transfers that liability from the children of the debtor to the children of the creditor, at a broad level it doesn’t solve anything in and of itself – it merely gives the debtor a chance to reorganise and get going again, and the creditor the chance to lend again without losing it this time.

      My reasoning for believing that this thing has to play out isn’t because I want to be poor, or because I don’t like the people around me, but because I can see no other way to reorganise and get going again. Without a comparatively drastic situation, governments are never going to have the will to do the things that they need to do – mainly to reverse the insanities of the last 20 years.

      I’ll be convinced when, for example, it is the generally accepted view that buying a property is a burden, not an opportunity for easy money.

    • ray_m

      Hi David,

      well, first off I’m no economist and thank you for correcting the typo on my “drivvle”. I appreciate that you offered the courtesy of debate on the current situation, however, as a small fish working in a relatively new online area, struggling through sometimes 16 hour days for minimal current reward, I don’t have time to debate.

      I used the word to describe, not your assessment of the economic situation, you have been spot on with a lot of things, lately in your assertion of what the ECB had to do to save the Euro by Christmas.

      However, the drivel referred to the opening paragraph of this article about ‘umbrellas’, which was complete nonsense and a waste of reading time, and actually prevented me reading the rest of the article.

      Furthermore, I was swayed in this analysis after the wage assessment of your previous article “Leaving the euro may be our least extreme option” when for the purposes of your article you take a snapshot in time 2008, and assert that as the point when all currencies are equal, for the purposes of the article. You then measure wages versus competitor countries which I found a little bemusing, shouldn’t it have been against a base unit for the purposes of scientific rigour.

      Then in the article “Last flight from Frankfurt” which I found rather emotional, as I remembered getting off an Aer Lingus flight from London teary eyed in 1993, you pretty much in tone criticised the low interest rates afforded by the ECB, yet in your article “ECB has until Christmas to save monetary union” your paragraph “Ultimately the only solution…” wasn’t that one of the solutions?

      There is a lot wrong, and your assessment is more often than not heading in the right direction, but you don’t need to do the theatrics in your writings, they make it sound like melodramatic fiction.

      It’s only an opinion, doesn’t count for much in the wider scheme of things.

      I’ll still keep reading if you don’t mind.

      Kid regards,
      Ray

      • stuff01456

        I’ve never seen anyone so exercised about a metaphor – the anonymity of the internet really brings out the moron in people.

        • redriversix

          it also seems to be used so self indulgent assholes can try and preach from high……………stuff01456.

          When you get some experience in the real world than you might come back to me.The anonymity of you and CameronTT brings out the worst in me…

          OH wait,I should be more respectful as you claimed before to work in the finance industry……you could clean the fcuking toilets in the IFSC for all I know or care,your a problem or a solution

          • stuff01456

            Thanks for your feedback redriversix.

            Asshole?, ouch. There nothing wrong with cleaning toilets – plenty of people do this for a living and I’m certainly not above it.

            I’ve noticed in reading these articles that the comments seem to be full of your opinionated rants – all based on a mixture of facts, misunderstanding, exaggeration and some kind-of presumption that you have a grasp on “the real world” and that everyone else needs to tune into your unique solution/problem . So, its not surprising that you get worked up at people pointing out the errors in your rants (or even questioning your assertions), since you invest so much of your time into it, but it is a real giveaway of what a spoofer you are. A “Financial Strike” will just further damage the little that remains of our banking system (which we do actually need whatever you’ve managed to convince yourself of by not reading the BASICS first), but don’t let me put you off – keep it up. We need constructive and informed solutions, which David does contribute towards, and some other comments here too.

    • redriversix

      Great article by Bruce,Deco…..

      Finally,,someone else is seeing the “light”

      Maybe we David can build on this and gather some momentum.!

      I volunteer to help….anyone in distress

      Best
      RR6

  19. paddythepig

    David, happy new year to you.

    In my local town, 2 cobbler shops have opened in the past year. There is also a new business selling fancy milkshakes which the kids seem to really like, and another lovely store selling exotic hard boiled sweets. A fishmonger has opened as well, and so has a nice little cafe. A tile-store has closed ; as have 2 car dealers ; as has one over-priced clothes store; as has an auto parts & tyre replacement centre (deservedly in their case, as their service was terrible, and their staff ignorant).

    So, slowly, there is a change in the type of business in our towns – away from the bling of the Celtic Tiger – to more frugal, bread and butter type businesses. The cobblers are the most interesting to me ; it shows that people will get stuff fixed now, instead of throwing stuff out.

    So, there are businesses starting up, albeit not enough. And people will only spend if the product or service is good enough, and that has to be a good thing. Gone are the days of replacing the car every 2 years, and so on. Expect lots more ‘maintenance’ type businesses to shoot up.

    I think the focus on getting people to spend as they spent before is seriously misguided. The focus needs to veer instead to what we can produce that is of high enough quality that we can sell it.

    Consumerism is not the answer. We did that during the Celic Tiger, and on balance bought imported goods, mostly stuff we didn’t need in the first place. That was a failure.

    As for the Government? Well it already over-spends well beyond our taxing capability, so I wouldn’t be in favour of adding fuel to that fire until they demonstrate they can control their urges. If the Government want more money to invest, they should use a carrot rather than a stick approach ; in other words, get their own spending in order so that there is something worthwhile to invest in. This really means cutting back on spending which on balance results in throw-away consumer activity (such as wages & excessive transfer payments), and up the capital spending on economically worthwhile investments … like Colin’s bugbear, the Cork-Limerick road.

    • molly66

      Like you I can see some changes in drogheda some new small shops opening 2 sweet shops cafe shops for these to open the landlords must have had to cop on that some rent is better than no rent.
      It is just not enough while this is good the government are doing a lot more harm than good,so this government need to follow the landlords the few landlords who have had the cop on small start ups that can survive and make a difference .
      There’s to many people who employed people who where given no help and where and are screwed ,these employers who have had enough have packed it in or become ku her smaller or even become a one man band.
      So unless this government wakes up and helps the back bone of this country we are doomed .
      The greedy over payed self serving government and there cohorts in those cushy jobs there golden handshakes ,the plum pensions the pay rises when we have to take pay cuts shame on kenny and Gilmore we the Irish people did not vote for this.

      • Adam Byrne

        I’ve been saying for years that voting is a waste of time, and when I finally got around to doing it (by way of experience and experiment) at the ripe old age of 38, then I was proved right.

        Rip-off merchants the lot of them, although I did vote for Sinn Fein, who had an excellent candidate in my constituency (Eoin O’Broin), and I think Sinn Fein would have done a better job, than the current set of scammers, cheaters and liars. Maybe next time (if I’m here which is unlikely).

        • molly66

          Do you know what has come back in big time the barter system ,there will always be rip of merchants out there.
          At this stage the left and shinns would do a better job at least they have balls and if we have to leave the euro so what because I get the feeling Europe is going to suck the life out of us and throw us away when they get there pound of flesh
          It’s no longer what eu can do for us it’s what part we can play to franch and Germany .
          I live in drogheda and the other night I went down to a new restaurant that had reopened in mell in drogheda ,I went in a 5 45 an the girl said you will have to come back we open at six ,what she should have said is why don’t you go into the bar I will bring you in menus and call you when your table is ready,we walked out and went else where no cop on there I keep thinking how Long will that place last.

          • Adam Byrne

            Same thing happened me at The Hideaway, Junction Road, Tufnell Park, North London last week, at exactly the same time – 5.45pm.

            Well nearly the same thing; the young, bright guys in charge DID bring is in, did offer us a drink and a chat and thereby kept our custom.

    • wills

      Paddy,

      I frequented a cobblers last year for a hole in shoe and priced at 20 euro.

      Subsequently he went bust 6 months ago.

      • Adam Byrne

        The other month I went to get the rollerball on my 3 year old Blackberry fixed. They frequently go wrong after using them for a while.

        In Antigua they used to charge me 20 Eastern Caribbean dollars to fix it; that’s 5 Euros and 39 cents.

        They wanted 50 Euros here in Lucan. I told them where to go.

        Needless to say, that guy has gone bust as well. Rip off merchants one and all.

        • gizzy

          Guys the cost of doing buiness is so much higher here. It does not mean the owner is ripping you off. I run a restaurant turning 10k a week. 500k ayear. gross margin circa 60%. Net receipts 300k . Wages net 3k per week gross 3.5k. Annual wage bill circa 200k electricity 25k pa rates and water rates 20k pa rent 50k per annum. My wages for 6 day week 450 per week. There is no point comparing my prices for coffee with anywhere else you compare costs. Also a couple of poor examples of customer service and charging should not lead to blanket accusations of rip off merchants.Why do people turn the attck the attack so quickly. Do you really believe small business owners are a major factor in this depression. If so and you would like to buy a restaurant, employ ten people, pay 200k into the economy, row with your landlord on a regular basis, get letters from the council and bank on a frequent basis please let me know and you are welcome to join the rip off business community.

          • coldblow

            This is what intrigued Crotty. Why is it business (or in his case farming) was so expensive, why was the cost of inputs so high? He traced it back to the high cost of, inefficient use of and free holding of land, in a postcolonial context. I haven’t seen a better explanation. I certainly don’t accept the argument that transport costs to our remote location are to blame.

    • Colin

      Happy New Year Paddythepig and to Everyone else.

      Paddythepig, great to have you onboard for worthy capital spends like the Cork – Limerick road. Anyone who has had to drive it would surely agree it is substandard.

      And I have a cheaper faster solution. Forget about the N20 route from Patrickswell to Blarney via Charleville and Mallow. Instead, pursue a different route from Ballysimon near Limerick to Mitchelstown, a distance of about 45km, half the 90 km from Patrickswell to Blarney. So what happens is at Mitchelstown, you can change onto the M8, and make your way down to Cork in good time. Also, the route from Ballysimon to Mitchelstown is relatively flat, so less cut and fill is required with Earthworks, meaning the project should come in cheaper and realised earlier. The N20 route passes through hilly areas. There is an added benefit too, as Traffic from Rosslare and Waterford could use this new route to get to Limerick and further up the Western Seaboard. Its a win-win-win situation, but I have no faith in those NRA shysters to come around to this better solution.

  20. redriversix

    Government is overdrawn over 18 billion euro a year before any consideration for IMF/ECB etc etc..

    The comparison to the recession of the Eighties is fine but we also need to remember that we Had a Banking system back then.

    There is no Banking system today and when Banks get cheap loans for themselves to remain in business instead of lending to business, they put in on deposit with the ECB !!!! at half a percent after borrowing at 1 percent.

    Best
    RR6

  21. Deco

    An article by Der Spiegel.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,806469,00.html

    The Germans might be getting sceptical now….

  22. mrblobby

    Its debatable whether or not we had a banking system in the 80′s, my personal experience was that we had not, what we had was a loan shark system, ask anyone who fell in too arrears.

    RR6 you are correct, protect your family first, that’s what I did back in the 80′s when things went wrong, I was threatened with a bad credit history rating but low and behold when I got things going again those same people were more than happy to loan to me because I could make money for them. There are two things financial institutions don’t have, morals and memory. Its about the buck, Ireland could safely default provided we ensure money could be made here afterwards. Remember its gamblers we are dealing with, after losing they will be looking to the next race, short odds will not interest them. There is no money in safe bets

    • redriversix

      Thanks mrblooby.

      your points are well made, yet simple.

      It was a bit late when I realized Banks had no morals or no memory and boy,did it cost me,but that was then and this is now.

      I do remember some examples of Banks in the Eighties who would only lend to people who did not need it !

      Protecting Family is the most important thing to me now,that’s why I would love to try and help people who are in distress with real advice and not theory,with practical experience rather than textbook.

      Judgement and bad credit history are not worth the paper they are written on.

      All the best for 2012 mrblooby.

      Financial strike now

      RR6

      • Hi RR6,
        Just wondering….Have you ever heard of these people?

        http://www.tirnasaor.com/08/09/bank-of-ireland-mortgage-redeemed-for-free-lawfully-the-blank-of-ireland-ebook-here/

        Aside from the above it’s indeed a crazy world.
        We all know that the current path is one of destruction which will wreck the economy. Hence injury to families and lives, through forced emigration or unemployment/debt/stress related issues etc etc.
        But who dies if we don’t pay these ridiculously
        odious debts?
        My calculator says nobody???

        Or maybe I’m a Gombeen?

        • redriversix

          Nobody dies,your not a Gombeen and your calculator is right,and life will go on

          We just forgot whats right and wrong and what is worth fighting for,Families,Men and women,the souls of a Nation,our Children,our future…
          Don’t get me wrong , Paul Moriarty I made lots of mistakes and was the ultimate capitalist,but I was wrong and trusted Banks because I made Them money and myself.I thought I was hot shit,turned out I was a dumb shit !

          I sacrificed my family’s future paying back Banks because they said they would “take care of me” I trusted them..my mistake.

          Now I try and help who I can…..Forget Fear , it doesn’t exist.

          A solicitor told me when I questioned a bill he gave me years ago that I was a “impudent pup” for requesting a breakdown of the bill !!!…….He didn’t get paid,…..I never liked the term “Impudent pup”

          I forgot to ask questions after that..so ask questions all the time,never accept anything unless its “in your hand”

          Cancel your debts NOW….

          Family first

          Financial strike NOW……..and FORGET FEAR,TOMORROW IS THE START OF THE REST OF YOUR LIFE,MAKE IT COUNT…

          I will come back to you on the link you posted,Paul

          Thanks

          RR6

        • redriversix

          Thanks for the link Paul,Turns out I downloaded that a couple of months back,good stuff tough.

          Every day is a school day.

          Talk soon

          RR6

  23. Peter Atkinson

    Boy am I glad I didn’t have James O’Reilly as my GP if his performance in the Health Ministry is anything to go by.He does an examination, makes a diagnosis and then does exactly the opposite to cure what he has diagnosed.

    The umbrella was used to treat a particular type of infection contracted by sailors back in the 19th century.It was particularly painful but was the only known treatment at the time.I think Dr O’Reilly has reverted to the use of the umbrella and by God does he know how to apply it.

    I think we all know that that doctors don’t make particularly good Ministers for Health nor economists good Ministers for Finance.I think we all realise the government of the day hire in their own experts, give them the budget and let them spin it foe what it is worth.The last thing you need is a Minister interfering with the actual calculations.Their job is purely to announce the results.

    Fear is the key and these guys are intent on frightening you to death.For those old enough to remember, this governmental combination did exactly the same back in the 70s and it didn’t work then and it won’t work now.This is purely a caretaker arrangement and we all know they won’t be elected for a second term and I doubt if they will make it to the end of this term.As soon as someone reminds the Labour Party what a Labour Party actually stands for its goodbye Coalition 2011.

  24. piombo

    Happy 2012 to all,
    David’s scenario of debt forgiveness is already underway, but under more subtle guises, namely:
    Recapitalization of EZ banks
    The 1% three year swaps offered by the ECB to the EZ banks holding sovereign debt yielding between 3% and 7% were subscribed to almost €500 billion in mid-December. This is a guaranteed carry-trade recapitalization of the banks and will allow banks to rebuild their Tier 1 reserves. The Buba has remained silent and will probably remain so until at least mid-2013 when there are new elections in Germany. Draghi will repeat the exercise at least twice more in 2012, the next round being in February to assist France and Italy and then perhaps in September/October in time to allow EZ countries to absorb the recession that is coming down the line.

    Weaker Euro against the US$ for at least 2012 and perhaps 2013.
    Today we are at 1.29 and the 50 day moving average is clear in it’s momentum toward the 1.10-1.20 range in the next three months.

    These two measures alone will drive down commodity prices and drive up FDI. Inevitably, it will also drive up Euro-denominated asset prices.

    Unfortunately for most people in debt, these measures will seem distant, but they are useful.

    Lastly, more than default, Ireland would do very well to adopt as a minimum the UK bankruptcy code, Sean Quinn docet!

  25. straboe1

    It is always important to get things in perspective. European “experts” are telling us that the Euro needs a political compact (Constitution) to make it work properly, yet it was working properly under the the Stability and Growth Pact, until Germany broke that pack, with Ireland following afterwords. Under that pact there was no direct threat to our independence, but with the new proposals there is an acknowledged threat to it. If anybody thinks that this will be good for us they need to think again. The the Stability and Growth Pact were broken by Germany because it felt powerful enough to do so as it was in their own interest to do so. Under the new compact there is a suggestion that a country may get out of some of its provisions if it gets sufficient support from other countries to do so. This is being done so that if it suits Germany again to breach an agreement when it suits them, that they will be in a position to pressurise enough smaller countries into supporting them in achieving their objectives. All entities govern themselves in their own interest, Germany does so, as do we. It power plays peripheral areas tend to be neglected. That will happen to us if we get more into a unified Europe. To realise this one only has to see how our own state has treated Western communities in on this island, and especially the islands. This happened to us under the British, as it did to Scotland and Wales. Germany wants to be the power house of Europe and we are falling into a trap.
    We should immediately start talking to the World bank to see if we can do a deal with them in relation to our debts. They are more likely to permit us to give a hair cut to the bond holders, and it is unlikely that they will charge us 8.2 % interest on our loans. At the same time we could get out of the Euro, bring back our own devalued currency. But to do this we need real leadership, something lacking at present. There are real leaders in this country, such as David, but powerful interest groups will do everything in their power to insure that we continue to be puppets to powerful entities outside this country.

    • stuff01456

      Hi straboe1. Personally speaking, I would consider myself to be pro-European IN PRINCIPAL, and would generally have been an advocate of a United States of Europe (the fact is that we have been integrating culturally anyway throughout history and the mutual advantages of an economic & political union don’t need repeating). But IN PRACTICE, I concede to all of your points – well made. I think that the brinkmanship of the EU political leaders throughout this crisis have given us a taste for what we might expect in the realpolitik of a more fiscally & politically integrated EU model (at least in its current form, and I don’t see that changing).

  26. Dr Richard Tol formerly of the ERSI I SALUTE YOU

    • Harper66

      “He said the institute’s independence was compromised by the fact it got so much of its funding from government. He said this could manifest itself in the way the research it conducts is put into the public domain.”

      “Ireland is facing 10 years of austerity. Leaving Ireland is the best thing you can do at the moment if you are responsible for a young family.”

      http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0102/1224309715732.html

      • redriversix

        Hey Harper66

        Seems this Professor Toi should get a Medal and write his memoirs.!!!

        The other issue regarding leaving Ireland is “where do we go with a young family”,might seem obvious but what if its not ?

        Best
        RR6

        Financial strike now

        • Adam Byrne

          Get a medal?

          He couldn’t say a word while he was actually working in there? He was just a ‘Yes Man’?

          Bit late now Mr. Tol.

          • redriversix

            I understand Adam…

            But better late than never,maybe he was constrained by contract,? who know’s

            He is talking now though and I don’t think he had to.

            Best
            RR6

          • Adam Byrne

            Alright, not bickering with you redriversix, but constrained by contract doesn’t really cut it with me.

            What about being constrained by honesty or a conscience?

            Truth is, he was too busy feathering his own bed, like the rest of them in there, despite the fact that he can’t seem to afford a haircut.

            He’s only blabbing now because it’s suits his own purposes to put a distance between himself and the hocus pocus going on in that ‘institution’, which he probably knew about ‘long-time’ (as they say in the Caribbean).

          • Adam Byrne

            Call me a cynic!

          • @Adam

            I hope you see nic today

          • gizzy

            Attended a presentation by the ESRI Christmas 2003 when they said the biggest threat to the Irish economy was labour shortages and we would have to import 150,000 worker a year. No mention of property sector over reliance or anything else.

          • @gizzy:
            And now they’ll tell us they really do need 150,000 immigrants because of all the irish emigrating.

            They used call it ethnic clensing in the balkans but they don’t use guns here.

  27. Coddler

    Hello David,

    Would a mass Mortgage Boycott be effective as a means to pressurise the government into halting the repayment of the private banking debt by the Irish state?
    The recent property bubble amounted to a enormous theft from Irish people where hundreds of thousands of people have been saddled with huge debt just to put a modest roof over their heads (in most cases) An insider elite of landholders, developers and bankers became obscenely wealthy on the back of this bubble while the political class encouraged the stampede.
    This debt is now a millstone around our necks but it could be used as our most effective weapon to drive real change for the better in how this country is governed.
    Ths would involve a large number of people withholding their mortgage repayments until the government stops paying the bondholder gamblers with our republic’s money. As the Irish state now owns most of the Irish banking system, the impact on the government would be immediate and substantial.
    The idea would be for people to stop their standing orders, direct debits etc on their mortgages and to divert the money elsewhere, in another account for example, until a conclusion has been reached. At this point the accumulated funds could be transferred to the mortgage lenders and normal repayments would resume.
    No penalties, additional interest or any financial sanction would be accepted on the late payments from the Banks or the strike would continue.
    Obviously, it would take a significant number of people to commit to the action for this to be effective but it might be possible to kick start the protest through the media, Facebook etc and sign up the necessary number of people for the movement. Momentum for the civil disobedience should be achievable with so many people already under serious financial pressure thanks to the greed and stupidity of our banking and political elite and other vested interests.
    A reasonable target might be in the region of 100,000 mortgage holders who are prepared to sign up and commit. When the target figure has been reached the protest would begin the following month and continue until the government undertakes to stop rewarding the failed bondholder gamblers with our money and future.
    Our government has signed up to pay €3 Billion a year for the next 10 years in bond repayments and promissory notes for the failed Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide Banks. Meanwhile FG and Labour will tear the heart out of this country with vicious cutbacks and tax increases to pay for this robbery while our young people look at an empty future and emigrate in their tens of thousands. This is wrong and has to stop.
    It’s time the government realised that they rule the Irish people only through our consent and they do not have our permission to bleed the country dry to provide a transfusion to the parasite financial elite.

    Best Regards

    Coddler

    • Coddler,
      great idea but I’m afraid ( no pun intended ) irish people are in such fear of banks and the ptb that they would not do this.

      It has to be a mass boycott, it would change the country over night.

      Imagine the banks and by extension the government’s power being cut to zero in one fowl swoop over night.

      We have to break the fear, it is slowing killing us and empowering them.

      Only at the stage when we have nothing left to loose will this happen and by then it may be too late…..but right now it’s an amasing idea!!!!

      Well done !!!

      Josey

    • Question:

      Why are the people we elected serving the banks and not the people who elected them?? No really WHY????????

      • irishminx

        For a variety of reasons Josey,

        1. They are being offered envelopes?
        2. They are asleep.
        3. They are greedy.
        4. They cannot see the big picture.
        5. They are being offered big EU jobs when un-elected.
        There is always gain and most probably it is financial gain for them. PLUS, the bankers have secrets about our elected representatives, which could destroy their careers!

        This may be taken down by this site, but it is what I believe, sad as it is!

    • How about not limiting non payment to mortgages, why not extend it to all utility bills, credit cards etc. ?

      Why not divert some of these payments to SVP?

      We’d immediately see the media latch onto this, robbing the rich and feeding the poor!!!!

      • Coddler

        Josey. Thanks for the support. I’m no expert in the banking, economics, financial area so I’m hoping David McWilliams will respond with any pitfalls he sees in this course of action.
        If a mass mortgage boycott has a reasonable chance of success then it would be great if David would use his media profile to generate some momentum behind the protest and help to sign up the necessary numbers to make this work.
        I’m not sure the non payment of utility bills would be effective as it could be counteracted by cutting of people’s electricity etc. In addition, the ESB are not the ones who have landed the country unlike the Banks who bear a large responsibility.
        The mortgage strike would have an element of poetic justice. We can use our own indebtedness against the institutions which caused the disaster and force genuine change for the better with a powerful but peaceful lever.

        • Agreed. Though the ESB would never cut off a mass percentage of the populace….imagine the uptake with airtricity.

          I doubt David would put his name to this but at least he lets our ideas air here.

          I still like the idea of diverting the mortgage monies to SVP :)

          • irishminx

            I stopped paying my mortgage last August, for a number of reasons. There are two main reasons why, but one is, If I talk the talk, I need to walk the walk!

            I think a mortgage strike is a brilliant idea and I have been advocating it for a few months now, as it would bring the banks to their collective knees. They sold on our mortgages to American banksters, who in turn sold it on again & again……. Now we are bailing the banks out, so therefore, they are being paid again! PLUS the banks have insurance on default mortgages, so they’ve being paid again! PLUS, they have already created more money from my signature on my debt to make more money, ie, fractional reserve banking, so they’ve made money on my SIGNATURE! PLUS, they have charged me huge interest rates…….

            Wake up people, the banks & the chosen few of this world are screwing us & YOU AND I are NOT talking about it, even though we know it is happening!

            I have organised #TheGathering on twitter, next meeting the 12th Jan 2012 to bring together interested groups & individuals to put a plan in place for when the € goes & it will soon! The only rule I have put in place is that we each respect our differences, as each group & individuals has their own uniqueness to bring to the table. This is an on-line meeting hosted by @IrishDebate and they are doing it for free for up to 50 people. If more people become involved, then we will need to pay. The propose of these meeting is to bring about solutions to our current mess and go forward taking positive mature action for ourselves.

            NOW is the time for change, all we need is to have the balls to bring it about and FFS stop being armchair warriors! The world needs all of our positive action right now! Collectively WE CAN DO IT!

            My email address is trich@eircom.net if you are interested.

            BTW I did invite David through a friend, but heard nothing back. I would have liked if he was there on the night of the first meeting. But that is life!

          • paddythepig

            Irishminx, I hope your second reason is better than your first.

            It might be a good idea to check your facts, and determine whether any of the events you list actually happened, or whether you’ve just dreamt them up.

          • irishminx

            Your name says it all PaddythePIG!

        • Just for pig iron I say we should spend the money in the real economy.
          Not for selfish reasons but because it is where it will do the most good for society!
          The patient here is the economy – strangled by the unsustainable routing of funds to the dead in the water banks!

          When a company goes bust – it goes bust!
          It’s debtors rarely if ever have to fully pay their outstanding balances.
          The Banks went bust! The only thing that makes them appear as going-concerns is the fact some politicians decided to pump your tax money into the remaining carcasses!
          Why do politicians side with banks????
          Check out their personal and family portfolios! They’re protecting their own/partners/relations investments with your money.
          Look at all the prepaid Government-envelopes that disappeared with the ousted politicians?
          You don’t have to be from a certain background to be a common thief you know!

          We elect many thieves and just like the Emperors New Clothes even honest people don’t want to point it out!
          To check my theory just ask for an itemised bill from a Solicitor or Barrister!

          • So why do we vote for them knowing all this?

            Are we really that stupid or is it hoping against hope that they’ll turn honest?

            I see FF are being sanitised lately….could they get back in soon?

          • Ray Burke
            Charles Haughey
            Bertie Ahern
            Michael Lowry

            Above are just some of the names already cited by Tribunals whose terms of reference preclude them from ever facing any real justice.
            These terms of reference were agreed by the majority of the “honest” politicians!
            There’s still no meaningful look at or penalties to pay for the abysmal performances of Cowens, Coughlans, Lenihans etc. etc. Just record pensions!

            Meanwhile you try not paying for your TV Licence!

            And here’s just another nugget which represents official Ireland so well………Garda Ombudsman operating for 6 years costing nearly €14,000,000 so far and can boast only five minor convictions!

            I say let the Gardai rob all around them – it would surely be cheaper?

            I rest my case!

            We really are that stupid!

          • Correction Garda Ombudsman so far cost €40,000,000
            Yes €40,000,000 – and you thought Trappatoni was expensive!

            Up to Sept 2011 -8,800 complaints and 5 convictions.
            1 conviction per 1,760 complaints.
            €40,000,000 for 5 convictions.
            €8,000,000 per conviction.

            Proportionally I’d bet that nothing beats the expense of Irish “Justice”
            Not NASA, Not NATO Defence Budget, Nothing

            And guess what? It’s these elite boys called to the Bar who really run this country!

            Ask any politician that genuinely attempted to investigate anything by hearing or committee!

            And guess where their nest eggs are/were? Bank Shares and Property would have been a real favourite!

            And You and Me? We’re less than the dirt on their very exclusive shoes!
            These people are answerable to nobody!

        • redriversix

          Good Evening Coddler,

          I have been calling for a financial strike on this site for a while.

          It is an excellent Idea.All of the things that people are afraid of have happened to me,so I speak with a depth of experience including debt/judgement courts , losing my home and my business and paying the Banks back millions and in doing so sacrificing my family’s future
          [ for now].

          I should never have listened to the false promises they made me,but I knew them for so long I had no cause to doubt them.

          So I sold/forfeited everything I had and paid them a lot of money and they closed their door on me.

          I have not turned to a pillar of salt and I know today what is really important and I have gone back to basic’s.

          The one thing I did do which stood to me during this crisis was quit drinking as you can’t “fight”and drink at the same time.

          So I would be delighted to share my experience , strength and hope to those who genuinely want it and to assist them in any way I can,except Monetary [still broke]!!!!!!

          Financial strike now

          Pay your family first
          Do A Budget,essentials first than take your debt repayments and divide by say 5 and that’s what you pay for six months and hoard as much cash as you can.

          Write or email your Bankers tell them this is what you can afford,outlining your budget,be honest,its easy to remember the truth.

          Every call you receive,log in a diary.

          Every email you receive log in a diary

          get the name of every person and time and date of when you spoke to them.

          Ask for the original documents you signed for credit card,car, mortgage etc…

          Do not be afraid of judgments or credit rating falling,they will threaten and harass you,but you will only respond to written requests for further information/updates.

          If the loans are solely in your name,your partner’s income has no bearing on the statement of means they may request you fill out,so DO NOT put any income they may have on it.

          That’s all for now

          family first
          Cancel all debt

          Financial strike now !!!!!!!!

          Best of luck for 2012

          RR6

    • CitizenWhy

      If you look to Irish history, the Land League led the most successful social revolution of recent times. Instead of paying their rents to the landlords, large numbers of tenant farmers paid their rents to local priests as agents of the Land League and the rents were held in escrow by the League until there was real land reform from Parliament, which eventually happened. That was when priests were willing to defy their bishops who, on orders from the Vatican, acted as allies of Dublin Castle (with a few exceptions). In fact the re-imposition of Catholic bishops with Catholic Emancipation was resented by many priest and people.

      In place of land reform, the demand might be to lower the principals of mortgages by 50% and set the interest rate low. Then the escrowed money could be used to pay off large chunks of the mortgages, or the escrowed money would go to the mortgage holders after the principals and interest rates were lowered.

      Priests could not play this role today. But a national organization with lower local officials who are willing to be arrested would be needed. Perhaps the GAA will get to that point of resistance. Perhaps not. Irish willingness to defy rather than talk against authority is not what it used to be.

      • I would not trust anyone with that amount of money….too much temptation for even the honest. Keep it where it’s needed at the home owners….keep things decentralised as possible.

        • CitizenWhy

          For I can share a bit of humor on money and trust: My Irish family finally, somewhat reluctantly, decided to put up a memorial to my uncle, assassinated in the Civil War. Nothing too fancy or ostentatious, the money raised strictly among relatives. The money was entrusted to a cousin, who took it and took off for Australia and bought a farm.

          The family was delighted, never liking the idea of a monument anyway, and wrote him to say that they were glad the money had been put to better use than another reminder of the Civil War, and that they expected no repayment. They assured him that he and his family would always be welcome to visit home, or come home, although everyone assumed he and his family would prefer their new life in Australia. They thanked him for all the laughs they got out of the situation.

      • Deco

        +1

        Good Idea.

        We have a new tax. The Property Tax. 100 per household.

        We can instead give it to an organized campaign to stop paying the Bondholders.

        We have political allies for the cause. Stephen Donnelly, Shane Ross, Ming, David Norriss, the ULA, SF.

        But really, this is not a political movement.

        This should be a moral movement – in the same way as the Land League was a moral movement.

        • Deco

          Also, the Ballyhea Group in Cork, can act as the Template for the organization.

          Similar to the organization of the Land League, which started in Mayo, and spread along the Western seaboard and then nationwide.

  28. redriversix

    Evening all…

    If anybody wishes to contact or meet with me to seek advice or just to listen,perhaps they could email David and he could put us in touch,

    “hope I am not putting you on the spot David”!!!

    I live in Dublin south.

    I do feel that I have something valuable to contribute to those who need assistance………in Strictest confidence.

    Best

    RR6

    • I’d echo that. In the interests of keeping businesses going or for some basic start up advice in ‘Elf, Safety,Risk Management or Compliance, I’m quite happy to help out too. A bit of volunteering is good for the soul.

    • Dorothy Jones

      @RR6
      Perhaps set up free email A/C with googlemail or such and publish it here on the site; maybe a lot to ask the mod or whoever to forward?
      newbeginnings and new private concerns offer assistance as well as the staple MABS.
      Would you be kind enough to give some detail?
      Best D

      • redriversix

        Hi Dorothy Jones,

        Thanks for the feedback,I will set up a new email and publish it here tonight or tomorrow.

        As regards “detail” ? I won’t charge for help or assistance.M.AB.S etc are very good but…………with respect,

        I have real experience,not theory so I know how stressful and upsetting it can be.

        I have a wonderful family and I now know what’s real and important.

        The less I want,the more I receive !

        I have posted a lot of info about myself on this and previous posts,so I hope I have given you some idea about detail.

        It is really very simple to deal with,so I try and keep things very simple.

        All the best,talk to you soon

        RR6

        • For what it’s worth, network engineer here offering my services for free.

          • redriversix

            Hi All

            If anyone would like to get in touch with me for a chat or to try and get some of the excellent ideas posted here up and running…….

            I would be happy to try and assist anyone with Financial difficulties in the strictest of confidence.

            I have no other motive than to try and help people not to suffer any longer.

            My email is redriversix8@gmail.com

            Financial strike now

            Families first

            Best

            RR6

      • redriversix

        Hi Dorothy,Can you Help ?

        Best
        redriversix8@gmail.com

  29. grougho

    hi all,
    just posting the following link as a follow on to the discussion on the land league, the link is about a newly “liberated” nama building in cork – which the group aim to be used for social purposes. this type of direct action prompted a policy change in holland a few decades back that legitimized (to some extent) the subsequent squatter movement. Its continuing legacy there is that there are literally no unoccupied buildings in holland. we need this direct action to grow here and to put pressure on all building owners to put the buildings into the market and accept the market rates.
    fair play to all involved and i hope this grows…
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0103/1224309736369.html

  30. grougho

    incidentally this comment from NAMA raises a load of concerns

    “Nama doesn’t own buildings so it is the responsibility of the owner or the receiver to organise its security. It is not something Nama directly involves itself in. If it is a Nama property, ultimately Nama will raise the matter with the owners.”

    so nama on our behalf have paid billions for buildings that they don’t own how does this work???

  31. Alan42

    My Granny also had a thing about umbrellas . She lived through rationing during the war and always stockpiled food . My Grandfather was a docker who used to turn up at the docks and the foreman would pick who he wanted to work that day . If you were not picked , you did not get any work . They lived in the Dublin tenements and as my Grandfather did not drink or smoke they were not dirt poor .

    It left both my Mother with a life long fear of debt and a ardent saver . My Mother’s default setting is ‘ recession mode ‘

    My own experience with debt came in the early 90′s when interest rates went through the roof . I was in a bank one day and this just walked in and threw a bunch of keys over the counter and shouted ” Keep the f..king house ”

    Important lessons and experiences that kept my family out of financial trouble .

    Irish people have been shocked and awed over the last couple of years with a crashing economy , bust banks , massive negitive equity , personal debt and 2 governments without even a single clue between them about what to do .

    Anybody who has a job can’t be sure that they will have one next week . even the Public Service have taken cuts . To make matters worse Europe is imploding in slow motion . Everyday it bad news and doom and gloom in the media .

    Only a idiot would go out spending in these uncertain times .

    This is interesting , from your article .

    ‘ One obvious solution is to impose capital controls and force — or at least incentivise — Irish savers to finance the government. Thus the government recycles the savings of the anxious savers, thereby
    propping up demand, and eventually allowing the broken balance sheets of the Irish people to be repaired. Once the balance sheet is repaired, normal economics will resume once again.’

    You want to freeze peoples bank accounts and let the government take the savings of people to run the country ? Would people be searched for cash at the ports ? Impose heavy taxes on people who have opened accounts in Germany in the last couple of years ?

    Do do what with ? Pay for NAMA , Berties pension , prop up the Croke Park agreement ? Bail out people in massive negitive equity so that they can buy houses , flat screens and have their teeth bright white on the back of people who have saved all their lives ? Thats how people think .

    And then ‘ normal economics will resume once again ‘ What is normal economics in Ireland ? It has just come out of a 15 year property bubble.

    I don’t get it . The government freezes your bank account and takes your money , things get going again and everybody is spending .

    Would people not be stashing cash , gold and silver under their floor boards if the government can just come in at anytime and steal your savings ?

    It will be a very brave government who takes my Mothers money . Have you any idea what old people who experienced poverty are like with their savings ?

    Sounds like a South American solution .

    • Juanjo R

      Nice piece of racial stereotyping there at the end!

      Tell me where did that happen in South America? where did governments just sieze money from private bank accounts?

      Tell me do you associate south american latinos with dirty dealing? and nobody else?

      BTW the public service in Ireland has lost no permanent staff in forced redundancies despite the government running a huge current account defict since 2008. ( i.e. this excludes and is before bailout money is included )It has suffered relatively little.

      • It happened in eastern Europe recently.

        • Juanjo R

          where? when? The very vast majority of eastern eurpe is in the EU and have democratic governments – who are you talking about?

      • irishminx

        Juanjo R

        The public service will lose permanent staff come next month with the redundancies, as they are due to go at the end of February.

        Just setting the record straight.

        • Juanjo R

          Firstly please note the verb I used. has – past tense.

          “BTW the public service in Ireland has lost no permanent staff in forced redundancies despite the government running a huge current account defict since 2008.”

          Where are these redundancies for permanent directly contracted civil servants? Back your claim up please as far as I can see this isn’t happening.

          • irishminx

            Because I was a public servant up to the last day of September 2011 & next month a lot of my permanent colleagues are retiring (Under the redundancy package)& will not be replaced. That is how I know Juanjo R ;)

          • irishminx

            PS

            As for past tense, in the last round of redundancies, we did lose colleagues, but as you are aware, there wasn’t a high take up on that deal. There is now.

          • Juanjo R

            You poor poor things!!!

            FORCED redundancy ( can you read? ) is where you are hauled into a room not given any notice and to f**k off with or without statutory redundancy and you are out on your arse on the street before you know it.

            This happened wholesale in the private world – theres months and months of a waiting list at the employment tribunals still trying to deal with the backlog of cases. Thats only from those who stuck aroud to fight. This all involved wholesale destruction of peoples lives, and huge impoverishment. But that didn’t register with you public servants did it…

            DEALS like the civil service ones are voluntary EARLY RETIREMENT, involve secured pay and pensions. Thats not FORCED redundancy. Nobody was thrown out on their ear. The credit crunch claimed no victims.

            Big difference!

            Oh the self pity of you cossetted people! You constantly hide behind falsehoods…was the union that peddled that one?

          • irishminx

            Juanjo R,

            You are obviously a bitter, angry man who feels it is your right to take your crap out on me, for whatever your warped reasons are, which only you know, in the depth of your soul.
            If you think for one second I am taking YOUR CRAP, forget it.
            You probably think I am new to this site, because I haven’t posted here in a long while, think again!

            Just remember this, EVERYTHING YOU SAY, DO, FEEL AND THINK, IS 100% ABOUT YOU.

            I’ll happily leave your shite to you with best wishes!

          • Juanjo R

            Faced with the truth in a debate – you abuse!

            You can’t respond adequately, you can’t read accurately, you can’t back up your inaccurate false points.

            So you bully. You are a sexist bully.

            Your inflated sense of injustice to you and your friends leads you you peddle falsehoods. You know you are the fool in this situation.

            And I don’t care how long you have been on this site. You don’t have the right to abuse me. I don’t care if you haven’t posted in a while.

            There is nothing warped about my points. Anger is a normal human emotion, and yes I’m angry. It is a healthy reaction to injustice and theres a lot of it being expressed here. How I let it dominate me is a matter for me.

            A started here by pointing out a false and quasi-racist remark agaianst the people of the conintent that I LIVE ON and I get abused at the end for debating and apparently spewing “shite” which happens to be accurate?

          • irishminx

            It is not I, who abuse Juanjo, it is you who abuse, in my experience of what you are saying. After all, it is you who are angry.

            Emotion = E Motion, to move for one’s self. Not to have any one else move. Because what arises in you, IS about you. Anger is only healthy when you do not inflict it on an other! But take action for self.

            If you think for a second that I have been “cossetted” in my life, then I suggest you read my blog.

            You assume far to much Juanjo, when a body assumes, you make an ass out of you & me! Take a look at the word and break it up.

            If I am angry, then my anger is about me, NOT any other human being in this world! If I seek to take my anger out on another, then I guilty of grievous wrong. And I am not owning my anger, which I suggest, you are not!
            Use your anger for good, to move you into positive & safe action, rather than projecting it onto me!
            I do wish you well, with love.

          • Juanjo R

            So it didn’t happen then?

            The government DID NOT GRAB peoples money as you said yourself.

            You in your head have decided with your full knowledge of argentine law and history that this was stealing. Who appointed you judge and jury there? you?

            Why aren’t you pointing out the example of Hungary who recently passed a law allowing all Swiss demoninated loans to be repaid in Florints a devaluation and now they can’t sell their bonds?
            Its why Unicredit is screwed it and others loaned money ito eastern europe. Why don’t you decry that as robbery by the magyars of the italians?

            The original comment here was a slander against the people of South America because it attempted to DENIGRATED all of them RACIALLY.It was an insult aimed in hope, not FACT.

      • BnB

        “Tell me where did that happen in South America? where did governments just sieze money from private bank accounts?”

        Ten years ago the Argentinian government converted dollar bank accounts to pesos, whether the depositors wanted it or not. This devalued people’s savings and could be described as stealing.

        There’s nothing necessarily racist about referring to something dishonest that happened in South America.

        But then again it could never happen in Ireland…

        • Juanjo R

          As above. If you can’t read please leave my comments alone…

        • Juanjo R

          BTW the public pension funds here been raided in Ireland to pay debts…that 17.5 billion euro…a year ago…

          but stereotyping is easier…

          • BnB

            Then I must make sure never to question anything that a foreign government does because that would make me a racist. And what a government does with people’s savings could not possibly be described as stealing, not even when it is found to be illegal as the Argentinian Supreme Court judged the forced dollar-peso conversion.

          • Juanjo R

            So it didn’t happen then?

            The government DID NOT GRAB peoples money as you said yourself.

            You in your head have decided with your full knowledge of argentine law and history that this was stealing. Who appointed you judge and jury there? you?

            Why aren’t you pointing out the example of Hungary who recently passed a law allowing all Swiss demoninated loans to be repaid in Florints a devaluation and now they can’t sell their bonds?
            Its why Unicredit is screwed it and others loaned money ito eastern europe. Why don’t you decry that as robbery by the magyars of the italians?

            The original comment here was a slander against the people of South America because it attempted to DENIGRATED all of them RACIALLY.It was an insult aimed in hope, not FACT.

          • Juanjo R

            The Argentine sumpreme court found it to be constitutional.

            Its here in spanish from argentina, no american press lies.

            http://www.laprensa.com.ar/Note.aspx?Note=144428

          • BnB

            The Argentinian Supreme Court originally found the forced pesofication to be illegal. Later, I think after a few judges were replaced, it found it be constitutional but later again ruled that account holders must be fully refunded at the correct dollar value.

        • Juanjo R

          BnB

          The american media reported that decision linked above as a being against the devaluation when the decision was actually for i.e. that it was constitutional.

          I don´t blame you for some confusion – it was lied about in reputable and irreputable places.

          Worry about your pension beiung robbed not this – seriously!

          • stuff01456

            Well done, Juanjo, for spreading some badly needed level-headedness. SOme of these comments read like Jim Corr might have had something to do with them.

            I know its only January, but probably the quote of the 2012:
            “If you think for a second that I have been “cossetted” in my life, then I suggest you read my blog.”

          • Juanjo R

            ai its funny!

            I find it exhausting here. I’m retiring.

  32. Dorothy Jones

    At the risk of sounding like someone asking the DJ to play a track; an article on NAMA at stage would be no harm.
    The national media have let the public interest down badly on this regard; particularly in relation to payments by developers to the price NAMA has paid for them only.
    The interests and conditions of payment have been well protected by Arthur Cox. However, John Mulcahy, loan portfolio managers, valuers and have interesting previous knowledge and interests.
    The lack of understanding within politic of this entity is risible.
    namawinelake is the people’s champion on this. His entry on 05 July 2011 gives a blow by blow account of John Mulcahy’s involvement in the Glass Bottle Site. I note tha t the NAMAlab gruop made their presentaion to him and to certain portfolio managers also.
    Reminds me of the scene in the series Dynasty back in the day;there was a classic scene: Krystle and Alexis in a jewelry shop; Alexis break the pearls she’s trying on: Krystle says to Alexis: What a perfect picture – Pearls before swine……. You break ‘em – You bought ‘em
    Pearls before swine

  33. Peter Atkinson

    Folks stop looking for leadership from celebrities and lead from the front yourself.The less celebs you have the less the establishment will have to throw at you by way of muck raking.Nothing rattles the establishment like the unknown enemy.

    A round table organisation would be the ideal way forward.No face just a group.How do you think one of trhe most effective groups in the history had a certain government’s backs to the wall for so many years.

    Set up your own blogs etc.Don’t rely on DMcW to be the champion for injustice.He too has his opinions but he also has a family to feed.This movement will be bigger than any one single individual.There will be need for street fighters, economists, strategists,talkers etc.In other words its the fight of every man,woman in ther country in the street.

    Let nobody think they are insulated against what I can only term a “financial holocaust”.Yes you will loose a number of battles, it will get bloody and yes it may go on for many years but in the end the establishment, whats left of them, will have to sit down with you face to face and negotiate a blueprint that can be used to build a fair and just society where everyone has an equal say in the shaping of our future.

    Does the above scenario remind you of something that was played out in this country for many years until the establishment realised that the only solution is an all inclusive solution.Its the only solution and lets leave the celebrities to do what they do best.Afterall RTE is full of them.

    • irishminx

      Peter,

      I can only agree with you. We are all leaders & we do NOT need to give away our power again, history tells us this over and over again.

      As to the Round Table you are on about………
      Well, Awaken Ireland is a small group in Cork that are hosting “RoundTable Ireland” “http://www.facebook.com/groups/184388404985859/ on the 25th & 26th of February, hopefully in Portlaoise. It is a people’s think tank, where ordinary people & groups come together to find creative solutions for a positive, mature & responsible way forward for all Irish people.

      In the mean-time, my group, #TheGathering is partly a fore runner to this event (and I hope the gathering continues thereafter)to try & bring individuals & groups together………. See one of my previous posts about this.

      Awaken Ireland are charging €25 to the RoundTable Ireland, only to cover their costs. I will let you know more, when I do.

      Awaken Ireland are also on face book.
      http://www.facebook.com/pages/Awaken-Ireland/182270998478511

      The time for action is now, we can no longer wait for anyone else to guide us, we NEED to do it for OURSELVES! There are so many individuals and groups in Ireland now and all we need to do is unite, which is my hope with #TheGathering

      Sincerely.

  34. fod

    hi all, i think that a mortgage boycott would be a good idea. i have extolled the idea of a run on one of the banks before but this is good.
    it think this would garner more support than a debt forgiveness. i am one that was forced to emigrate so i hope that if you do it then you will be successful.
    you are my family and my friends and i hope to be able to come home.
    best of luck.

  35. Loan Alliance

    I think small cells of locals should be formed in each county with an agreed national agenda and a manifesto .

    ‘ Loan Alliance’ is a name I propose this movement to be called .

  36. Peter Atkinson

    Now that I see the contributors on this blog actually have fire in their bellies I feel there is some hope of action.Its more than trotting out statistics and references to obscure articles thats needed.Direct action in all its forms is what’s required.

    Revolution isn’t all about firing bullets.This whole debate isn’t about what’s right or what’s wrong.Its about what’s left after the destruction.The dissent is rife even within the ranks of the Labour Party.The Labour Ministers have set themselves apart from their own party and the feeling on the ground is that those same ministers are paddling their own canoe.

    Its time to take advantage of that uncertainy now.We all know what Fine Gael stand for.They have made that very clear.The Labour position on the otherhand is not as clear as some would make out.Lets all start chipping away at that crack and see what unravels.

    With all the positive reaction to the disaster here it is now time to turn this to our advantage.I personally have been lobbying one individual from the Labour Party and while I wouldn’t claim to be in any way responsible for his decision he clearly outlined his position to me the week before he got off the fence.

    Well as a starting position, bombard these elected officials with emails and letters and tell them in no uncertain terms how they have let you down.Thats the first step to being an activist.The rest will follow, mark my words.

    Some wonderful words of prose have been contributed over the years to this blog.Well you have had your target practice firing blanks.Its time you started firing the real thing at the real enemy.

    Guys, we are down but we are in no way out of the game yet.And remember, its all a game to these guys but be

  37. There are mechanisms to forming a formal regulated alliance and the Co-operative movement is internationally recognised.
    Needless to say the assistance and information contained herein;
    http://bit.ly/wd6KCq
    is almost useless though the CRO / Basis site is more helpful;

    For a fuller explanation on the aims, ethos aspirations and successes of a cooperative movement, the British site is very good.

    Our neighbours site is here;
    http://bit.ly/e3LQTe

    A few of us did try to meet up a couple of years ago with this type of thing in mind but it fizzeled out, mainly from my part on a need to fill the fridge, but in reality, the pain hadn’t really hit up till then.
    But now we are where we are, namely nowhere, unless a form of land League is created.
    I’d see it on the American Lobby model, existing for self help but with sufficient numbers to make those who are riding the wave sit up and listen.
    Ideas on a postcard.

    BTW, there’s skillsets aplenty on here to have this established tout suite before the Trolls report back to Daddy about whats happening.

    And it has to be apolitical. The Irish don’t do politics very well. Keep it simple.

    Update; I’d too many links on this post so it got moderated. 2nd time lucky?

    • redriversix

      Morning Furrylugs,

      C.A.M.A

      citizens asset management agency !! ?

      Do a budget this weekend,pay yourselves first.

      Prioritize essentials

      Slash your debt repayments by 80 %

      put the savings,if any, aside for your future

      Notify your Bank debtors that you have ran in to difficulties and this is all you can pay.

      Inform them in writing on the 24 feb 2012.This gives time to build up some cash and gain strength from others

      Due to stress you are only able to discuss your situation by letter,request no phone calls.

      Note and detail any calls,names,and times and dates of any contact your Bank debtors have with you.

      Keep it very simple and honest.it is very easy to remember the truth.

      If I am correct,most budgets will show a deficit,thereby you are taking action to put “your Business or family in order”

      People lives come before Banks and debt.

      This “term of receivership” allows you time to try and save “your Company”………….YOU.

      The Banks set a precedent when they lied,deceived,carried on fraudulent business.The Government set a precedent in its election promising to take care of the people and not “a penny more to failed Banks” and failing the people who elected them on their promises.

      They expect US to live in fear of our own debts and our families suffering,but they can say one thing and do another and continue to pay themselves vast salaries and appoint incompetent people to Europe !!!

      NO MORE

      Financial Strike NOW

      Families first

      Keep it very simple and remember,their is nothing to fear….NOTHING

      Do the best you can,one day at a time

      C.A.M.A
      redriversix8@gmail.com

      contact me anytime,if you wish

      Best

      RR6

      • Also if dealing with banks, legal folk etc. make them aware that you too are recording the call for the same reasons they are.

        Do record all your calls.

    • Harper66

      @ Furrylugs
      @Peter Atkinson
      @RR6

      Excellent suggestions.

      Apolitical is a must. It appears people now have something to unite against.

      I have spoken to people over the Christmas period who previously would have been very wary of even dicussing politics and are now activly seeking some way of voicing their dissatisfaction with current governement policies.

      I agree with Peter also that lobbying local representitives is vital. For anyone taking time to read this blog take two minutes to contact your local representitives to voice your disatisfaction. It does work and it can achieve results.Put pressure on.

      Is it possible to hammer a concise list of aims and objectives for this co-operative ?

  38. Coddler

    Right, some great stuff has been suggested so let’s try and push this on to the next level and kickstart some real action.
    I suggest the following next steps:

    1. Everyone who is interested in a financial/mortgage strike to email Redriversix at redriversix8@gmail.com. He can pull us all together in an email chain to discuss how best to progress this. (Sorry if I’m putting you on the spot RR6!)

    2. Join the Irish Homeowners Unite (IHU) Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/IrishHomeownersUnite and post up the financial/mortgage strike proposal. I’ve done this already but it’s dropped off the front page so it would be good if someone else could throw it up again

    3. Join the Awaken Ireland Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/pages/Awaken-Ireland/182270998478511 and post up the financial/mortgage strike proposal.

    4. Both Awaken Ireland and the IHU are organising meetings in the near future so maybe they could join forces to have a single meeting and maximise the numbers attending.

    5. Ask your friends and families to join us in the actions above.

    I know some of the posters are very keen to keep this apolitical and I agree mostly but I think some political input would help to give this focus. A lot of small disparate groups can easily be ignored but one large mass movement has great power. I’m a constituent of Joe Higgins and will contact him with the financial/mortgage strike idea. I’ll post it up on his Facebook page also if people want to go in there and hit the ‘Like’ button to show support for this idea.
    There are other politicians out there with integrity like Shane Ross, Richard Boyd Barrett, Ming Flanagan etc if people want to contact them with the financial/mortgage strike proposal. I think the key here is to get a large number of people committing to one protest rather than multiple small protests. My preferred means of protest would be the financial mortgage strike as I think it has real teeth but if the movement goes in another direction then I accept this and will support whatever form of protest is decided.
    Unity is vital if we are to change the direction this country is heading. We have a very flawed and limited form of democracy where we are allowed referendums on mostly trivial issues like judges pay and are denied a voice in the greatest economic decision that Ireland has ever taken which is the bank bailout and continued payment of private banking debt.
    We need to take our democracy back and a mass mortgage strike is one way to do this.

    • redriversix

      Thanks Coddler..

      Thanks for the vote,anyone can contact me anytime.

      Lets get it started…..!

      Keep it simple,non-political.A group of like-minded people to show those suffering a way out and a new beginning.

      Do your budgets….

      Collect information

      contact me

      Maybe we can find a Hotel [in time] were we could get a meeting going.I certainly will share my experience strength and hope to people looking for real help.

      There is nothing to be afraid of,more so now…..

      Financial strike NOW…

      Best

      RR6

    • Deco

      We need a new Land League.

      Purpose – refusing to pay the gambling speculators who bought bonds in the toxic banks like Anglo, Nepoto, etc…

      Only one purpose. Basically one single issue, that every taxpayer, welfare recipient, and business can agree upon.

      A-political.

      It needs to be above politics. It needs to be so strong that the politicians scramble to serve it.

      It needs to be that simple. Just like the Land League which was founded by Davitt, and which brought people out of servitude.

      • redriversix

        Fine Deco,agreed…

        lets all work together,lets try and achieve one thing before next Monday.

        Just one………

        Best

        RR6

      • We’ve had the means a long time…

        …NOW We have the MOMENTUM!!!!

        ….it’s finally here.

        The people now have the appetite.

        facebook

        twitter

        email

        leaflets

        chat

        et al….

        • redriversix

          CitizenWhy,

          I had the pleasure of taking my family to Gettysburg for a couple of days after paying my respects at the Vietnam war memorial.

          Terrific place to learn and a very humbling experience.

          All the best for 2012

          redriversix8@gmail.com
          Financial strike now

          • CitizenWhy

            I’ve never been to Gettysburg but the Viet Nam memorial was indeed a humbling and spiritual experience for me. Watrching the groups of school kids from the American hinterland sing patriotic songs with reverence on the Mall was also inspiring and disturbing, their sincere belief in American democracy belied by so much that goes on in the nearby Capitol.

            As for the Civil war, I was seriously shocked, perhaps traumatized, when as a very young child I read a passage in de Toqueville’s book on the emerging American Democracy in which he come across a slave in a cage in a tree with his body picked to pieces (while still alive) by crows (I used to read my older brothers’ school books). Years later, when in Cincinnati, I decided to walk across the old bridge to the Kentucky side because the Ohio River was the River Jordan of the slaves’ spirituals, the dividing line between slave and free states. I actually saw the waters below turn into hundreds of Afro-American souls looking at me with an expression that is hard to describe, not accusatory, mainly curious. Slavery and the Civil War still plagues the American soul. I do not know if it would be wise for me to visit Gettysburg.

            Do you watch the TV show Homeland? Quite good. In it Sgt Brody, converted to Islam and a covert terrorist after being welcomed home as a hero for being imprisoned and tortured by Al Queda, takes his family to Gettysburg and describes the battle in detail, with deep emotion, to his kids. They do not see, but we do, that he envisions a new global Civil War being waged and he, in his mind, has chosen to fight with those he considers enslaved by the American Empire. He is a morally complex man willing to commit horrors in the name of his new religion and the new global civil war.

    • redriversix

      I do not mind how we set this up as long as the end result is a major financial strike and to be able to comfort and support those that need it.

      Keep it simple

      Financial strike now

      Best
      RR6

  39. behonestonce

    David i am sorry to inform you that under the new mandatory law of the people of ireland that you and George Lee and other respected members of Honesty in Ireland which there are very few of, will be given the post of keeping this country afloat.
    For too long the irish people have had to put up with “stuttering Dans” who only know how to line their pockets and that of their colleagues
    It must be one of the laws of nature that the genuine honest person will always be the one that suffers the most. I am here in London and just at the last working week coming up to christmas was told that thats it nothing for you and a few others in the new year “irish construction company” so no dissapointment here “we all know what our so called fellow irishman are capable of here in England unlike the USA where they do have a slightly better reputation of treating their own. but at least i know i will find something no matter what it is just to survive. but back home in Ireland some family and friends of mine who are unable to find work and if they do the wages been offered would not even keep them in fuel to get to and fro so its very very simple now that the country is “busted beyond belief” it has to be done the government the opposition in other words ALL THE FEEDING LEECHES WHO IS SUCKING THE COUNTRY DRY should be weeded out because all they are doing is drowning us and all the poor elderly people throughout the country are living in fear not knowing what sort of an existence they will have in the few years they have left. i do not want to go on forever but i am not use to typing and am not great at wording and phrasing so please bear with me. about ten or more years ago i was working in what is known as millionaires row in ballsbridge doing the speed humps, bumps or ramps whatever you wish to call them, where one ex taoiseach lives and other very wealthy individuals with indoor swimming pools gyms and not to mention the very expensive cars “state owned or not i dont know” the one thing that made me feel disgusted was the speed bumps been put down on that road had to be different than any other we had done before or since ,instead of using the orange dye in the tarmac pressed down with a kind of branding fork to give it the appearance of bricks they actually had to put in real bricks on this road now when you see the bullshit that people put up with you can see how it is so easy to get annoyed. From past Bullshit leaders to present it was always going to be the fate of the irish people to come to the point of hell on earth
    David McWilliams George Lee and a FEW MORE GOOD HONEST MEN AND WOMEN please stop ireland from going under YOU,S HAVE THE BRAINS AND HOPEFULLY “CONSCIENCE” PLEASE HELP NOW WE WONT BE GETTING HELP FROM SOME POOR NATIVE AMERICAN TRIBE THIS TIME ROUND

    • Colin

      Surely you realise you are better off being in London than being back in Ireland. I hope you aren’t one of these proud patriots who thinks Ireland is the best place in the world to live and that its the only safe place to raise your kids. History has told us its was probably the most unsafe place to raise kids, but that didn’t stop the false cultural propaganda over the years.

      Ireland will be laid waste, with the insiders somehow finding a niche area to survive and prosper. Face up to it, Ireland will always let you down. Don’t let it upset you.

      An intelligent man would not waste time trying to fix the unfixable.

      p.s. Find an English employer, you’l be treated better. Best of Luck.

    • @behonestonce…you too have the brains and honesty!!!

  40. behonestonce

    the irish are yet again emigrating in droves just as before when in times past the elite few even higher than those in power controlled the economic climate to suit themselves they ARE UNTOUCHABLE as mentioned in one of the above posts
    well they shouldnt be COME ON LETS STOP TALKING AND START ACTING we all know it is going to happen but unfortunately not the way we would hope No Control No Mercy in an uncontrolled fashion the greedy fucks who have got the ball rolling should pay but no it will be the completely innocent people who will pay with their sanity their lives
    now for all the very smart well educated well spoken know right from wrong hopefully God fearing people PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE INTERVENE INTERVENE DO SOMETHING THAT YOUR FINANCIALLY ECONOMIC MINDS WILL ALLOW TO YOU get us out of this mess unite your brilliance and do some good now i better get out there and find work
    if i had your intelligence oh how i would put it to use

    • redriversix

      Behonestonce,

      You are brilliant,just haven’t realized it yet.

      Its happening right now.
      Best of luck finding work.I wish you well and I might also point out that you have your intelligence and you are putting it to work.

      Stay positive and forget fear,its not a fact.

      Financial strike now

      Best
      RR6
      redriversix8@gmail.com

  41. Peter Atkinson

    I think before this positive movement gathers any more momentum its important to understand the whole point of it.Its not a forum for the haves,the have nots,the hard done bys,the I’m alright jacks and the hard luck cases.Its about an all inclusive future without exception.Remember the policies currently being pursued have only one end game.BANKRUPTCY.

    I suggest that a mobilization plan be put in place without any further delay.Everyone will have a part to play and the most important point is that no form of elitism is seen to emerge.Neither creed,colour,education nor status should be an issue here.The only issue under discussion should be the ending of the sucidal path we have been placed.

    Speaking as an Irishman from Dublin this is one instance where the North and South should be united straight away.By that I mean North Dublin and South Dublin and the same goes for Cork,Limerick Donegal,Kerry and so on.This is one fight that concerns us all without exception.

    I suggest that if you are in a position set up a personal email address purely for this purpose, make it known and also what, if anything, you can contribute to the cause, even if its only your voice of support.

    Its time to move things on from this forum.By all means David will be more than welcome to contribute to the effort but this movement will have voices equal to that of David’s and anyone else who wishes to lend their support.

    • Coddler

      Peter,
      A number of us have emailed Redriversix at redriversix8@gmail.com. Can you contact him there also? He will pull an email together copying us all to discuss next steps in trying to make a meaningful protest happen.

      Cheers

      Coddler

    • redriversix

      I believe this “movement is for all people,no matter what their situation,Peter…

      There is a percentage of people who are out here who I would call the “not yet’s”

      This is not a disparaging remark,it is to highlight that those not effected now,may be effected in the future.
      a financial strike can be so effective,it is quite startling, and the support for each other over the last couple of days is very heartening.

      So,email redriversix8@gmail.com and help me to help us to help them.

      Best
      RR6

      • molly66

        We need to form a group like little acorns and watch it grow ,if we where to get rid of FF ,FG!Lab because we need real change not labour FG version of what they think it should be and to think I voted labour .

  42. hurleyburley

    Hello to All, new to the site

    I enjoy reading David’s articles, and would be of the opinion that having David and Constantin Gurdgiev in the Dept of Finance instead of MN and BH, possibly taking some advice from Max Keiser, would be the way forward for our little nation.

    I fear the course we are on presently.

    In the coming weeks and months, many bank employees are going to receive very substantial redundancy payments. Ultimately the state will foot the bill even after footing the bill of keeping these people in jobs over the last 4 years. Is anyone going to raise this issue publicly I wonder.

    Many bank employees with 20+ years service will be looking to receive redundancy payments in excess of 150k and more again.

    This cannot be allowed to happen. I believe such payment may already have started in PTSB at the end of Nov.

    Ciao for now.

  43. CitizenWhy

    Why not name the new mortgage strike group The New Land League? This term is familiar and positive to many Irish at home and in the diaspora. This name would seriously embarass the government if it moves to take harsh action against the New Land Leaguers. The name itself will capture media attention internationally and lead to a discussion of the original Land League and what it accomplished.

    To reinforce what others have said. Keep the goals simple, focused, non-political. I still favor a 50% reduction in mortgage principals and low interest rates on remaining mortgages. This is a goal that could make headlines and fit into headlines and spur movements even in other countries. Groups from around the world would rally to support this movement.

  44. redriversix

    Good evening DavidMcw.

    Could you help or assist in what you have seen on your site ?

    If you cannot,I understand……and thank you for the focal point you have given all of us here.

    Happy new year to you and yours.

    Financial strike now !

    redriversix8@gmail.com

    Best
    RR6

  45. CitizenWhy

    Josey makes an important point above. RECORD all your phone calls to banks and officials. They will lie. I can tell you that this is what saved a friend of mine from their threats. They will often go too far and say incriminating things on the phone. And they will certainly lie about what you said. Gather evidence for you and against them.

  46. coldblow

    Did anyone see the item on last night’s RTE News about an increasing proportion of house sales going to cash-only buyers? I predicted that they would not mention the possibility that many buyers might be spending their money/ savings while they still actually exist and converting them into something a bit more tangible (which is what I did last year). And of course they didn’t.

    Just out of interest, what is RTE for?

    • Juanjo R

      It is a good solid job for some mothers son or daughter – thats what it is!

    • Juanjo R

      It is a simple proposition I think – a lot of money was made in all these property transactions ( sales of overvalued land in particular) and some of it got banked not “reinvested”. I think some people actually might understand what investment is and therefore didn’t invest. It is coming back into play, as whats the phrase, the financial press use “as buyers see value in the market” again.

      I think it is still all a bet, ethier way – savings or depreciated non-earning asset, predictions are a dangerous game.

  47. Peter Atkinson

    Folks, I think this particular blog is just about exhausted now.As previously suggested maybe you should now direct your keystrokes towards redriver6 who has offered his services to co-ordinate some form of action plan.Action speaks louder than words.

  48. alprozolam

    i have 30 xanaxes left since i am off meds email me if someone is interested in them alprozol505yahoo.ie

You must log in to post a comment.
× Hide comments