November 29, 2010

Time to play the ECB card

Posted in Irish Economy · 173 comments ·
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Our government, with its New best friends the EU and IMF, has considered finally crossing the Rubicon and announcing burden-sharing for senior bondholders of the banks.

The fact that this should come as news to anyone amazes me.

We don’t have the money to pay them so they won’t be paid, plain and simple. This has been clear for some time. The question now is, will they take the final step and realise this, when the deal with the EU and the IMF is announced, quite possibly today?

Burden sharing doesn’t go half far enough. This column has called not for burden-sharing, but burden-carrying.

The bank debt has nothing to do with us. We are already paying in negative equity, unemployment, higher taxes, fewer services and emigration for our mistakes; we are carrying our burden. The banks’ burden is not our business.

If the IMF deal means we pay one red cent of the debt of those banks that lent to Irish banks, this deal will collapse because it will be immoral and financially mendacious. That the Irish government’s possible reluctant decision to represent the Irish people and not bank creditors is hailed as progress shows how pathetic our politics has become.

The government’s insistence that the sovereign state would stand behind the banks at all costs (Cowen promised to write ‘‘whatever cheques you have to write in the interests of maintaining the financial stability of the state’’) has tied the state to the banks. It is time to end this nonsense.

This policy has led us to the position we are in now, where there is a danger that whatever cheque the government writes will bounce.

Obviously, the intertwining of the banks and the state needs to be unwound. The (comically optimistic) four-year plan released last week didn’t seem to contain any mention of the banks at all.

All government commentary on the plan insisted that it was viable, and that the banking problem was ‘‘under negotiation’’. It seems the only way this plan can have even a passing association with reality would be if the bank funding mess can be sorted out in away that avoids further costs to the state.

Worries about senior bondholders taking a haircut are more than a little overstated. Yes, they will complain, and yes, the mechanism will probably be challenged in court. Screw them. This is capitalism. I am not afraid of the likes of SocGen or UBS or the many other instititutional investors, are you?

In addition, the rest of the financial market wants us to do a deal which roasts these investors, because this is how we start again. The world is full of new money. That new money will come here if we are seen to be solvent and that means less debt, not more debt.

From the very start, this column argued that the guarantee should have been used to negotiate with the creditors in an orderly fashion calmly to execute a well-planned deal whereby creditors were forced to take equity in the banks or nothing. This is what the US did in the savings and loans bank crisis in the 1990s.

This course was open to the state for two years. All we needed to do was pass a bank resolution bill, which would have superseded all other laws and initiatives that went before. But, no, they did nothing, bluffing their way to Armageddon. Well now we are here.

When the initial guarantee expired in September, inexplicably €55 billion in bank bonds were paid back in full to investors. But no new investors were willing to buy, so the ECB and Irish Central Bank stepped in and provided liquidity to the banks.

The ECB is the focus now. Forget the bondholders. They take what we decide to give them, but we should be working on the mechanism whereby the ECB funding (all €90 billion of it for the covered banks) and the Irish Central Bank liquidity (about €35 billion at the end of October) can be converted into shares in the banks.

As the central banks self-define themselves as ‘‘the lender of last resort’’, they can find a new mechanism to take shares on their balance sheet. After all, the lender of last resort is obviously more likely to lose out than any other lender. In fact, when you think about it, central banks were set up to be defaulted on because, by the time they step in, everyone else has stepped out.

Because they print the money, central banks do not have the same pressure on their balance sheets as companies do. So if the ECB has to take a loss on the liquidity it provided, it doesn’t really matter. It can simply make an entry on its financial statement to account for the loss.

All this debt in the system that is causing the problems is wasted money that was spent during the boom. It is the ‘investment’ in the housing market from 2004 onwards.

Those investments have gone south, and there will be no return on them. In any market, when an investment does not work out, the investors lose their money. Irish mortgage holders have lost money, developers have lost money, builders are going bust. And yet the debt is still hanging around. It needs to go the same way as the Celtic tiger and be consigned to history.

The ECB has the power to solve this problem: failure to exercise that power will put the future of, not only the Irish economy, but also of the euro, at risk.

This is our trump card and we must have the courage to play it. The deal is simple. If they don’t do the deal willingly, we need to default and see what happens.

And do you know what will happen? They will find a mechanism to take the shares of Irish banks onto their balance sheet. And the crisis will be over, because they will not risk the euro and all that political capital to teach the Irish a lesson.

Those at the ECB know that the stakes are much higher. We must now squeeze them. That is what real patriots do: they stand up for their own people. And the financial markets would support us. Without the euro, there is no need for the ECB. Even if they do not want to act in our interest, they may be forced to do so out of self-preservation.

If nothing is done, or if the agreement reached today is little more than a fudge, the banking system to which we have hitched the fortunes of the state will come under more pressure because people will take their deposits out as quickly as the professional lads sold bank shares two year ago. In addition, the euro as we know it will not see out 2011.

Let’s be clear. The solution to this crisis would simply be ‘‘focused quantitative easing’’ which zeros in with laser-like precision on the Irish banks. It is obviously in the ECB’s collective talents to come up with such an obvious solution. If it isn’t, we should – for the sake of our country – force it to.

David McWilliams performs ‘Outsiders’ in the Everyman Theatre Cork, tonight and venues nationwide for the next two weeks.


  1. irishminx

    David our crowd of buFFoons don’t have the courage, intelligence or sense of moral duty to do this.

    Bah hum bug!

  2. finbarr

    Allowing whats happened with this deal and the market reaction, it looks like we’ll be heading for ‘good euro’ and ‘bad euro’ dual currency in the future.
    Why are the ECB so against quantitive easing?

  3. ladygee2

    Subscribe!!!

    Those idiots in FF simply haven’t got a clue!!!

    Just remember that they were the people who paid out millions of Euro for all kinds of financial advice back in September and what for? They didn’t take heed of any of that very expensive advice. The Taoiseach and Minister of Finance should both be charged with wilful neglect of the Irish Economy. As I mentioned in an earlier reply anyone who votes for Fianna Fail in the next General Election would want to be completely off their heads!!!!

    • crossroads

      I heard it reported during the Donegal by-election that people who would normally vote FF were saying that they weren’t going to vote at all.

      They couldn’t vote FF with all that has happened but they couldn’t contemplate voting for anyone else either.

      It’s like they’ve been spurned by a lover and although hurt, the remain besotted.

    • mulcahy

      I did not realise the Government had allowed €55 billion of bank bonds to be repaid in September. Wasn’t that done all very quietly??

      I truly believe allowing that repayment of bondholders to happen, and to continue to persist with repaying the rest of the bondholders, is an act of treason.

  4. blackcase

    Listen to Iceland president today on CNBC (29/11/2010).

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1672916038&play=1

    “1 letter and 6 months”? – Ireland should be so lucky.

    In summary – real life (and real-time) example – EVERYTHING David McWilliams has been saying!

  5. adamabyss

    subscribe.

  6. Time for action- keep the pressure on I marched.I will shut down in protest before I am shut down. Ring bombard FG. Lab . JHRay .Lowery. This is not signed sealed delivered.

    http://fintanotoole.ie/petition/

  7. liam

    Well, the current lot don’t seem likely to stand up for us, and I’m not convinced the next will be that convincing either unless they are persuaded of the importance of doing what needs to be done. Effectively the Irish now have no representation.

    We need a vision and a nucleation point around which a revolution can be organised, thats really all thats left now, everything else is irrelevant.

    • Its easier to replace the wheel than make the wheel. Only 100,000 marched on Sat.
      We need to use what is there now to change the IMF / ECB theft. There are sufficient people in Ireland who have had enough( definition “that one is unwilling to tolerate any more of something undesirable”).Politicians want votes they will sell to public opinion that has a focused agenda – David has stated
      “Those at the ECB know that the stakes are much higher. We must now squeeze them. That is what real patriots do: they stand up for their own people. And the financial markets would support us. Without the euro, there is no need for the ECB. Even if they do not want to act in our interest, they may be forced to do so out of self-preservation.”
      Lets push this alternative on election candidates. elected councillors, sitting opposition TDs .

      • liam

        I totally agree, all of the above.

        I am living in a commuter town, locals and blow-ins that work in Dublin, mostly. There are Erigie (or however you spell it) stickers around the place here. One thing we cannot do is allow fucktards like that to seize the initiative.

        I’d say start with writing to all of your local representatives (write, not email, this gets attention). Get everyone you know on the streets for the next protest.

  8. CitizenWhy

    Why is there no political movement in Ireland along the lines of France’s Rayy for France under Charles deGaulle? Rally for Ireland would be aimed at uniting all Irish groups and classes for the salvation of the nation. It would not leave organizing against the government-bank scheme to labor or to any one political party. The Rally would promise to no longer pay the debts of the banks. These debts, by the way, are to European banks, so naturally Europe’s “help” would be based on continuing to force the citizenry of Ireland to pay off the debts of a few well-connected private corporations that happen to be banks.

    Surely Madame LaFarge has already worked out a fall-back position on dealing with the Irish problem once the Irish government refuses to pay any more of the banks’ debts. In fact I believe that this fall-back bail-out might even be preferable for Madame laFarge, but she cannot act until the political situation dictates a different – and more just – bailout. Rallying the Irish people against the crooked deal worked out by Cowan would give her the clout to stand against Germany for a different kind of relief program.

  9. crossroads

    Keep banging out the message David but it they’re not taking any heed.

    The ‘Announceent of Joint EU-IMF Programme For Ireland’ states that, ‘The Programme for the Recovery of The Banking System will be an intensification of the measures already adopted by the Govt.’

    So it’s full steam ahead with the policies which have already proved a failure.

    The 85bn is made up of…
    67.5bn from EU, IMF, UK, Denmark & Sweden
    17.5bn from Ireland Pension Fund and cash resources
    85.0bn

    35bn of the 85bn will go to the banks (10 immediately and 25 over time.)

    That 35bn is just under 52% of the 67.5bn we’re being lent to give to our banks will flow straight back to the “donor’s” banks and earn the “donor’s” fat interest payments.

    And we don’t draw anything down until we’ve thrown the last of our cash and Pension Fund down the banking black hole.

  10. goldbug

    DAVID> YOU HAVE HEARD OF A BANKJOB?

    WELL THIS IS A COUNTRY JOB!

    THEY HAVE NOTHING BUT CONTEMPT FOR THE LITTLE PEOPLE.

    PREPARE TO BE SHOCKED…….

    AS YOU WATCH HOW GREEDY THESE TREASONOUS PARASITES CAN GET!

  11. joxer

    The problem here is we have 300,000 useless public servants who nodody has the balls or will to sort out.
    the private sector can’t afford to keep these paper pushers anymore. sack half of them, they won’t be missed same with TD’s and the senators,
    the euro is finished,just a matter of time,it’s time for us to get the fuck out of it and tell our’partners’ to fuck off.
    Where is david mc williams these days?
    time for another tv series or another book with some more smartarse tags,eg popes children,decklanders etc.
    get off your soapbox and speak up instead of talking shite to your upper class I’m alright jack brigade in the public service,wankers

  12. Philip

    Does is really matter what the local yokels do? Basically the politicians running our country are no longer of this Island. The future lies with them. And if they cannot save the Euro, then it’s all over by end of 2011 if not earlier.

    I cannot see what marching or shouting will do now. It is pretty ineffective and realises zero change. We are a very stupid and inept people judging by our voting patterns and our need for bling and our inability to see beyond the next month’s paycheck.

    Things will gather pace over the coming weeks. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

    • wills

      Defo. It looks like gang of bank robbers in the movie LADYKILLERS and everything they do to get away with their Dennis the Menance bank jobs keeps boomeranging back in their face.

      I urge all to get on to TWITTER and use it to bring down the beast.

  13. manofiona

    The Irish debt problem will not be dealt with separately from an overall Eurozone approach to the accumulated debt in the PIIGS and it is clear that such approach does not currently involve reneging on senior debt contracted or guaranteed by member states.

    Ireland’s public debt is a manageable problem: its public debt level, even with the “bailout”, will not exceed levels already reached in recent Irish history.

    The real problem is the situation of the banks (exclusively subject to Irish regulation at the time they acted irresponsibly) and the enormous private debt accumulated during the decadent period of the Celtic Tiger. The combination of private debt and the reduction in living standards implied by the need to service the increase in public debt will have to be dealt with, at least initially, as an Irish problem – which is fair, because that is what it is.

    To help deal with that, the EU has not put pressure on Ireland to change its predatory corporate tax rate since multinational exports, dependent, apparently, on maintaining that rate, are one of the few dynamic aspects of the Irish economy.

    It is only if Ireland’s situation again poses a problem for the Eurozone as a whole that the idea of beating up on the senior lenders to the banks will become a realistic possibility. Anything else is pure fantasy.

    • @manofiona,

      You are up to your neck in pure fantasy there.

      We’ve a self reinforcing, dual cycle over the next few years of debt reparation taxes and cuts in spending in an economy that will decline instead of grow. The young leaving in their droves.

      Honan on ‘News At One’ stated the argument was put from IMF/EFSF negotiators re the 5.8% interest that the interest rate could not be set low because otherwise it would not act as a deterrent.

      He seemed ok with that. WTF.

      The markets will see our ‘rescue’ for the incompetent stitch up it is.

      IMF/EFSF have scored an own goal with a short term pyrrhic victory that threatens to lose them the euro.

      No problems solved. Bigger mess made, the usual from our vassal, puppet state ‘leaders’?

  14. michaelcoughlan

    Hi everyone,

    It was with incredulity and repressed rage I initially listened to the words “the senior bondholders won’t be touched” when watching the TV last night. Once the emotion dissipated I began to assimilate the information and achieved a much more balanced assessment of what in fact is going on at least in my mind.

    I like most people felt that what was going on was “Bondaid”. However I watched Constantin Gurdgiev later on and he made a number of comments which were incidental to the main points he was articulating but which I felt really illustrates what IS in fact going on.

    Constantin like McWilliams has been accurate week in week out month in month out. The words which I picked up on were “The data coming out of this meeting confirms my analysis that what we need is in fact €130bn Euros not €85bn. To put €130bn in the correct context it equals 6500 TONNES of €20 notes. I am not shitting you! In case you don’t know what 6500 tonnes is it is approx 5000 new mini cars in weight!

    Constantin said the domestic economy will have to trump up 13bn just to service the loans. He said this isn’t possible. According to Constantin the multinational companies exporting out of Ireland no longer need the financial system in Ireland as if they were relying on it they would be bust. So if domestic Ireland were to fall apart the multinational exporting sector would still function THANK GOD.

    What happened last night in my view was that the EURO was bailed out. There is in fact a war going on to save the euro and if you think there will be no human casualties then you are wrong because I can assure you some pensioners will not survive this winter post pension cuts who may survive without them. The battle line and front at the moment is here in Ireland. Tomorrow the battle may be in Portugal, Spain Belgium or wherever. So we have to survive all of this.

    Ireland for the last number of years is like a junkie hooked on cocaine. We now have to come off it and get the fiscal problem sorted whereby tax revenues match spending rather than living on cheap credit. We have been given a line of credit to achieve this goal. When we achieve this we can then say to the banks in Europe that the debt which we all know is not repayable (truthful commentators like Constantin et al have made it clear to us) that they can torch the senior bondholders AT THAT STAGE.

    For those of you who are unable to decipher what the market is saying my view is that the markets are telling us that the EURO is not a workable currency for peripheral states. The markets will prevail in the end as they always do no matter what artillery or ammunition the authorities throw at it. The European authorities may well have won this battle to save the Euro but sooner or later they will lose the last battle which I feel will be fought in Spain and in any war the only battle which counts to win the war is the last battle.

    So Constantin keep up the good work for telling the truth. The debts are too big to pay back but we Irish will let the European banks know this when it suits us to tell them which will be when we have closed the structural deficit in our fiscal position to the place where we are earning our way again.

    How do I know this? You told us so. Our politicians can tell the Europeans at the right time that we don’t need the euro because multinational exporters don’t rely on the Irish financial system and when the domestic economy achieve equilibrium with tax revenues and spending we won’t need to borrow from European banks either.

    Sometimes David it is in the best interests of our country for our politicians to lie through their teeth to their colleagues in Europe.

    Regards,

    Michael.

    • Fergal73

      If Ireland unilaterally ditches the Euro, then we’re out of the EU. If we’re out of the EU, there is no reason for multi-nationals to stay here (they couldn’t route European (EU) profits through Ireland.

      FF don’t have the best interests of Ireland at heart. They don’t need to. People still hailed CJH when we knew him to be a crook. We re-elected Bertie after his “wins on de horses”, John O Donoghue is still highly regarded by some in his constituency. Bertie was recentlyt cheered by a group of Irish people on a visit to the Dail bar!

      The next few elections will exlcude FF. But after a few years (between 2015 and 2020), the electorate will forget and re-elect the Soldiers of Destruction.

      “Shure din’ me fadther n his fadther before him vote FF?”

      • shtove

        No, euro is separate from the EU. It’s all to do with treaties. One is a banker’s wet dream, the other is a decent stab at free trade that needs a sound single currency.

        At least DMcW finally got angry! About farking time.

        The banks are a menace to society. Take them out back and shoot them. When the Irish banks are toasted and crushed, RBS and Lloyds will collapse, along with some German, US and French banks. Good.

        Then let real bankers take their assets and start afresh. It’s going to be a great bank holiday.

      • Deco

        { If Ireland unilaterally ditches the Euro, then we’re out of the EU.}

        Incorrect. we are getting help from three countries in the EU who are not in the EuroZone.

        In addition we have Norway doing the ultimate act of charity for us – buying 3% of CRH. Effectively bailing out our largest company on the ISEQ. Check out Phoenix Magazine for a tough assessment of CRH). It is like as if the Norwegians have already decided that they won’t get their money back.

      • Fergal73

        I realise that the Euro is separate from the EU.

        Can we really stay within the EU and default / leave the Eurozone? Is there no mechanism by which the rest of the EU can kick us out as unworthy of being members?

        If we can, then maybe that is the plan, take the money and run for a few years, when the time comes to pay back, we default….

        • michaelcoughlan

          Hi,

          I feel this is what the politicians have in mind as we won’t decided to leave the euro we will be forced out of it. Britain is in the EU and still use their own currency.

    • Michael,

      Re “when the domestic economy achieve equilibrium with tax revenues and spending we won’t need to borrow from European banks either”

      The problem with your analysis is you have not mapped out the path we take to the above position in order to get there.

      Iceland took a different path and have 7% unemployment, we now have 14.3% unemployment.

      This economy to get where you describe will be banjaxed with penal cuts and penal taxes in a downward spiral destroying growth to pay banks including senior bondholders their criminal reparations!

      OT don’t you consider it rather bizarre to consider torching bondholders in the future rather than the present. As you say, markets can judge whether an economy can grow or be so banjaxed with debt it can’t grow.

      Not burning bondholders is a formula for instability, unreliability, incompetence, reckless gambling, kicking the can down the road, growing a bigger mess.

      Mistakes made by IMF and Eurogroup negotiators in the Irish ‘rescue’ will come back to haunt the euro
      in lessons the markets will teach; mistakes made by our gombeens, they appear to thrive on them!

      Next part of lesson from our gombeens following how to get the IMF to Ireland is how to get Ireland into a death spiral following their intervention:

      • Pedro Nunez

        subscribe,

        ‘four legs good, two legs bad’, and 20% will still vote for the ‘Napoleon and Squealer’s party’

      • michaelcoughlan

        Hi cbweb,

        Thank you for your response.

        As sickening as it may seem it appears that even though it is obvious that the cuts the government is announcing in my view will make the problem worse in the short term that is to widen the gap between tax revenues and spending it is the only show in town to establish the equilibrium.

        We the Irish (the majority of us anyway) voted for previous administrations. We allowed our administration to source its revenue from an unsustainable credit fuelled bubble. We allowed the previous administration to maintain a wholly incompetent regulator in place. We now have to sort out the problems we ourselves are responsible for. Once we have achieved financial equilibrium it doesn’t matter a fiddlers what the European banks want us to do.

        It’s like David said the market has a bully’s mentality and when you stand up to the market it will take heed and you can be proactive and not reactive. We will only be able to do this by bringing the country’s finances into a state of equilibrium.

        I feel personally that more could be done to inject liquidity into the system by establishing a new bank with the responsibility for lending to small business but it will take someone more qualified than I to explain why this option is not being pursued by the authorities.

        • Hi Michael,

          You need to better define ‘we’, yes people voted for the administration they got.

          They didn’t vote for them to wreck the economy.

          The bully you refer to is this administration that has disenfranchised the collective will of Irish citizens who are totally in opposition to their policies on the banks.

          re ‘We will only be able to do this by bringing the country’s finances into a state of equilibrium.’

          Try the following experiment:

          Egg = Country’s finances

          Fling the egg at nearest wall.

          Now bring the country’s finances into a state of equilibrium!

          • michaelcoughlan

            Hi Cweb,

            The European economy including ours is being wrecked by sociopaths in charge of European banking and US banking. The country’s finances will come into equilibrium one way or the other because the people will save all of their disposable income to protect their families and we will have an economy one way or the other.

            I can assure you if we torch the senior bondholders right now the IMF/ECB will withhold the credit and I will leave it to your own imagination what the country would in actual fact be like if AIB and BOI shut their doors and ATM machines.

            “We” are all of us in this country. No one said democratic accountability in a Republic was a perfect way to administer a country but what is acknowledged is that it is the least worst alternative.

          • “but what is acknowledged is that it is the least worst alternative.”

            Wrong, we have chosen the worst alternative.

            Alternatives will have to wait until a later time.

  15. goldbug

    CAN YOU SMELL THESE FILTHY RATS?

    THEY STINK LIKE A ROTTEN CORPSE.

    WATCH THESE VILE PARASITES TRY TO SPIN THIS ONE….

  16. Fergal73

    We are serfs. You, me and almost everyone you know are serfs to our lords and masters. Advice will not be taken. Deaf ears will continue to be turned.

    In the USA, the poor are kept at bay on a diet of budweiser, bibles and guns. In Ireland, it’s mostly just trinkets.

    The problem is systemic, and at its heart is an electorate who are blind to strategy and long-term thinking. Bertie being cheered in the Dail bar is but an example of the root of the Irish problem.

    It is only serfs’ money that is being spent, if the minister wants a new chair and a limo to an IMF meeting! Then by god, isn’t he entitled to it? The serfs can be taxed more.

    Tighten your belts. Arise and follow Charlie, quit yer whinging or go off n commit suicide.

    There are only 3 options availabe;
    Emigrate
    Revolt
    Maintain your serf status.

    You choose.

  17. paddyjones

    David is turning out to be a one trick pony….burn the debts.
    We are secure for the next 3 years and then if we followed Davids advice we would run into a brick wall, having no where else to go to borrow money. We need the bondholders on our side not against us. Bondholders are mainly pension funds who buy government bonds as a secure investment, they represent thousands of people accross europe, why are they the bad guys….cop on.
    As far as the ECB is concerned without them our banks would be bust, they have been very generous to us and we should be thankful not spiteful like DMcW.
    Economists have failed, there is no longer control over interest rates, currency rates no soft landing…only debts.
    65 billion IMF/EU
    90 billion ECB
    30 billion NAMA/ECB
    90 billion National debt
    127 billion German banks
    130 billion UK banks
    40 billion French banks
    any more ? There is no easy way out …there is no way out at all.

  18. wills

    MichaelCoughlan

    Agree with your thesis.

    But the thing is that the thesis only holds if the FF Gov use the *liquidity IMF safety zone* take advantage of it to burn the bondholders into oblivion.

    Now I think D’s article above is pre determining that this aint going to happen. The insiders who run Ireland have zero intention of using the IMF as a safety zone to then torch the bondholders.

    I do agree that once under IMF safety zone torch the bondholders.

    Will the FF government do this. Will FG / labour do it.

    Who actually is in charge here.

    Are the politicians in charge or are they merely taking instructions from someone else.

    Check this link out and decide for yourself.

    This story goes alot deeeper than media are reporting.

    http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-bankrupted-ireland.html?spref=tw

    • michaelcoughlan

      Hi wills,

      Thank you for your response. The answer to the question asked at the end of the article in the link is unquestionably Germany. I will explain at the end.

      I feel that it is in actual fact of no importance whosoever is in charge insiders, outsiders, Lenihan, McWilliams, Constantin or anyone else when the time comes to burn the bondholders in three years time or so. A bust financial system is a bust financial system. The mathematics will be so overwhelmingly stacked against Ireland there simply wouldn’t be enough paper in the world to print to inflate away the losses and save the Euro.

      This isn’t going to stop at 130bn or 230bn or 330bn this will roll on and on and on until the European governments realise that the renegade German bankers, sociopaths in my view, who have taken advantage of nonexistent regulation in Ireland have totally and utterly fucked the European Financial system.

      The German authorities have some cheek if they think that an ill suited toxic containment vessel like the IFSC in Ireland with the “safety valve” of Irish regulation whatever the fuck that is, is responsible for the financial Armageddon unleashed on Europe by THEIR Bankers.

      And why is that? because only the German banks had the financial firepower to unleash through such a shoddy containment weld as the financial regulation/restraint mechanisms of Ireland, the unimaginable financial Armageddon now being unleashed on the citizens of Europe.

      I have never been more convinced that when I voted no twice to Lisbon that I did the right thing for my country, the country I love, because what we witnessed the other night was the shafting of the citizenry of Eire by the high priests of the Euro for the politically expedient reasons of saving the Euro from what renegade German bankers have done to Europe’s financial system and currency.

      As if we the Irish of ALL people didn’t have direct experience handed down from generation to generation of what huge empires do to small countries like ours when it suits them for politically expedient reasons. In case anyone reading this post needs an explanation come here to the west of Ireland and observe the mass graves of famine victims which bear silent witness to gentleman’s genocide or visit your descendants in the US and elsewhere the legacy of 25% of our population being “dealt with” when converting the failed landlord tenant system to more profitable agricultural use.

      You asked the question Wills who is in charge? The answer to that is the same answer you would get if you asked a roman soldier in the time of Jesus or a descendant of yours in the year 4010.

      THE MARKET IS IN CHARGE. IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN.

      P.S. Please enjoy the following;

      Oompa Loompa doompadee doo,
      G-Sucks yet again in the doo doo,
      Oompa Loompa doompadah dee,
      a bonus all ‘round with company fees.

      http://www.businessinsider.com/bonus-watch-2009-goldman-sachs-pays-huge-bonuses-and-gives-junior-bankers-a-50-salary-raise-2010-1

      G-Sucks yet again rewarding failure.

      • BrianC

        No the market is not in charge far from it.

        The core capital controls the market. Never forget that. One of the reason JC threw them out of the temple. It was not the act of money lending but the usury. That was an act against fellow man to enslave him.

        Rockerfeller worked that the enslavement value of money after toiling hard in a field for a few days when he promised himself never to be enslaved by money but make money his slave. So Rockerfeller put his own interest first and JC had put the interests of others before himself. Forgive the ramblings and I am not a religious nut its just that I have this thing for ‘fractional reserve banking’.

        So you put some money into the system next you encourage its take up then you improve its availability by delivering credit and every thing is going fine. The ease of access becomes ever so convenient in fact its availability outweighs the reality of paying it back.

        Now the system goes into over drive and many of the participants in the so called free market begin to take bigger risks to gain more to be better than the others and gain more favour in the system securing greater access to the money funding.

        Some realise that in order to retain your achieved state you need to run faster as if you do not others will grow greater and your access to the system may diminish and your value in realtion to the system lessens.

        Now the game enters a new level and Mr Sharp Practice arrives at your door and service in a suit with a briefcase full of technical tools wrapped in amoral packaging and you learn to run faster. Hey man look at them go and now the herd instinct takes over and the behaviour of the market takes to a frenzy level. And one day the music stops and everybody has to position themselves on their chair of endeavors and the only way they can is if they can prove title to the chair. The only way to provie title is via the balance sheet expressing your ‘true net worth’ that is you have the money they created and that which you clawed from the system. At this point your credit worthiness is of no tangible benefit nor are the overvaluations that you may try to retain in your asset books.

        The thing is there are never enough chairs to go around. If you are not in the inner circle you can never know this. If you are in the inner circle you are always aware of this fact that the amount of money in the system always falls well short of the debt that was permitted to be created by the core capital who controls the market. The only way you can peer into this little secret is look at the rules of capacity utilisation.

        Anyway I had a look at Mr Malone’s author of Debt Generation. I admire him he is one smart guy. As for Hypo Bank and Defra they got badly stung by a Teachers union in the US who were sold a pup in subprimes which ended up on the Germans laps courtesy of an Irish Bank. And yes there was and still is a lot of illegal behaviour in the banks and IFSC encourages such and regulators are as useless as a sheriff without guns and even if he did get a gun I doubt if they would permit him have any bullets because at the end of the day he is one of them.

        All the participants know the music is about to stop and they are all trying to get rid of their debt and so far they got 55bn out of Ireland and intend getting as much of the 65bn plus the 17bn from the pension fund already in the bag. This contagion crap is only a smoke screen. And the greatest lie of all is the too big to fail one and a clear indicator is Japan.

        • michaelcoughlan

          Hi Brian,

          The Market is always in charge. If you have the capacity to create something of value and trade it for some other thing of value you will create your own market. You don’t need cash.

          We as a nation can get around this problem of toxic international finance by reintroducing our own currency even without the permission of our government as free citizens if we so choose.

          McWilliams did it when he introduced the marble as a viable currency in Kilkenny during the recent festival. I have failed miserably to try and get the members of this board to start trading in electronic gold but at least I tried.

          We should back any new currency with a defacto gold standard to make sure it couldn’t be devalued by printing more of the stuff.

          As regards Usury all major religions are against it as far as I know but Usury itself is not the problem. Canada’s banks haven’t failed even though they have usury in their system.

          The all perverse and pervase greed of the sociopaths in control of the world’s financial system is where the problem is.

          • BrianC

            No the market is never in complete charge therefore it is not in charge. The core capital permits a certain amount of latitude that is gives it a little free will especially regards pushing credit into the system.

            Gold is not the answer. It still enables manipulation and control of the market by the core capital holders. It plays even more into the hands of the core capital holders.

            Yes Canada’s banking system seems to have achieved the right balance. Can they keep out the corruptness?

          • michaelcoughlan

            Hello Brianc,

            If you are prepared to barter goods and services with me for my goods and services then there is no need for capital at all. Core capital or not we can’t be controlled or manipulated so long as we control the land we stand on. The market will decide however what he value of your goods versus mine is.

            I come from a small farm in the west of Ireland and posses the skills to provide a living for myself from the land without even the need trade with anyone else if I so choose.

            So long as people can add value to something and are prepared to barter it with their neighbours then we will always be in control irrespective of what those who control Fiat money decide to do with it.

      • michaelcoughlan

        Hi Cweb,

        This link you posted is ample evidence in my view of how a sociopath could view a financial toxic pile of shit like this world wide collection of financial weapons of mass destruction and call it a “success story”.

        This is in fact what Gege le Beau refers to as Orwellian double speak where such monumental failure is portrayed as a success story.

        Let me explain with the following analogy; If Ireland in the morning decided it wanted to store all of the toxic nuclear waste in Europe and built shoddy containment vessels, allowed poor regulations regarding the storage of such toxic waste and allowed low corporate tax rates to prevail thereby drawing from all over the world ever piece of toxic shit available for storage would you consider this a success story?

        I wouldn’t.

  19. ouldbegrudger

    Well, they’ve inked a deal but we still haven’t been told, definitively, exactly how bad the banks’ positions are. Lots of estimates, underestimates and an allocation from IMF/ECB but is it enough? If the economy continues to contact and deflate then the banks will worsen. Less income for bigger bank bailout equals death-spiral.

  20. Deco

    Well, I disagree.

    The German Finance Minister warned that those who need money from the EU should know better than to threaten to blow the place up. Playing the ECB card is a non-runner. The best thing that we can do, is play by the rules, and make sure that no rules are changed against us. If we want to win then we have to win within the rules. And we have to decide if we are playing by the rules of Capitalism – which is something that the establishment in this country has no intention of doing.

    The time to be concerned about the nation’s finances was the moment the Irish Times increased the size of it’s property supplement, and started making Dan McLaughlin it’s weekly anchor economic commentator. The time to be alarmed was in 1999 when you knew you were talking to somebody from suburban Dublin, by the fact that they would rave on about house prices.

    The time for burning bondholders was when we found out that Permo was loaning 8 Billion to Anglo to enable Anglo commit a fraud. But the establishment dithered. It seemed that the people who detested Anglo had a soft spot for Permo. I remember one particular commentator telling Marian Finuicane the following day “Irish Life are the most reputable of the Irish financial institutions”, before drifting on to become opportunist about the whole debacle.

    And the time for saving for the rainy day was when opposition TDs lambasted giveaway budgets as having the effect of “taking money out of the economy”. Squandermania was everywhere. Terenure Tractors, Fake Tans, and apartments in Sunny Beach. And now the lemmings are running scared looking for an easy way out. In life, the easiest way out is often the hard tough boring way, because that is where you end up when all the consumerist, high finance, sophistication culture nonsense gets played out and exhausted.

    Michael O’Leary said we were worrying about our finances seven years to late, and this would be an accurate description of our intellectual state.

    We did not have any cards to play. The FF TD who talked about poker was a joker. Same with Phat Rabitte, Gimmemore, Burton and all the other jokers. Ireland was not playing poker. Ireland was playing the baostful schoolboy who feel behind in his grades, because like the Dithering Toaiseach, he became “committed” to distractions that do not matter (Beer and Circuses).

    So we had not cards. Alright. It is as simple as that. We behaved like the janitor who won the lottery ticket and lost the plot. We are in intellectual subprime territory. And we still are. I expect to see lines of jokers lining up to save us from the consequences of our own flawed intellectual assumptions, and to fit in to our troubling tendency to chase some form of sophistication to drown out inner feelings of inadequacy. For these jokers to succed we need to not learn a thing.

    Now, time for deep thought about why we continue these pointless lemming runs, with leaders who press the buttons, and media organs who dismiss their failings. Time to free of the bullshit that gets shoved into us.

    It really suits our arrogance to believe that we had cards to play. It really suits our laziness to look for an easy way out. It really suits our arrogance and our inflated sense of our own importance to thing that we could have brought the entire house down. Almost as good as thinking that a brand of beer owned by a UK multinational is selling in some remote hotel in Thailand. Because we love our significance and we get giddy and uppity about that sort of bullshit. We really are loyal consumers.

    We have a trade surplus with most EU countries – and they know that we need Europe more than they need us.

    If the EU if s fraud, then where are the jokers who lined up last year telling us to vote in favour of the increased level of centralization in the Lisbon Treaty – or where they only doing it to outprove themselves to each other as being sophisticated ? Where are these clowns who decided that the ultimate act of sophistication and confidence was vote in favour of a peice of legislation without reading it. knew that voting in favour of the Lisbon Treaty was

    If we have lost our sovereignty then where are the people who are prepared to practice some self restraint in getting our finances in order ? None of them were in evidence in making speeches to the crowd organized by ICTU last Saturday. And then we have the Provos telling us, that issues of pride are of supreme importance – kind of like the ultimate sacred cow.

    Time to switch off the nonsense.

    The Irish concept of lifestyle, as practiced by many in this country, is an equation that financially does not add up. Now, if that does not change the disasters will keep rolling in.

    A better idea would have been to tell the world that the EU is some kind of absurd joke, an attempt to create a counterbalance to the Soviet Union, which has outgrown it’s design spec and usefulness. That might have scared them much more.

    • Deco

      And when I say we had no cards to play, I mean it. Our financial system is held together by string. With everybody stretched thin, we could not afford to bring the house down – and the EU knew this. Basically, this is sticking everybody’s job on the line.

      We simply cannot make big threats when we are hooked up to the international trading system the way we are, and expect to get away with it in the long run.

      We now have to learn to do more with less. It is a humiliation, considering the persistently increasing levels of stupidity that took over this country since CJH stepped onto the platform on the Champs Elysee in 1987 to play to our need for our own significance.

      The Germans were in the same position when the euphoria about re-unification calmed down. We are in a worse position in some respects, but we can get through this.

      We have to do whatever is necessary to ensure that the private sector labour market starts hiring again. That is what they had to fix, and that is what we have to fix. It seems that the knowitalls making the most noise these days know absolutely nothing about ths – as evidence by the issue of the drop in the minimum wage. The minimum wage is not working when every shop that you go into is employing family and close relatives only. Either the minimum wage goes or the urban rates get reduced. I don’t see anybody in favour of cutting either of these impediments to hiring in the private sector.

      • shtove

        “Play by the rules of capitalism”? They don’t exist!

        There is only the rule of law. Simple as that. The complication is that banks have been running a fraud for years, and they haven’t been prosecuted.

        Start with those prosecutions, and you avoid the airy debates about capitalism and socialism and which system is to blame.

        There is no system: people are to blame, and people get punished – the honest and the dishonest. At the moment those to blame are punishing the honest. Perverse.

        Apart from mass starvation, this is the lowest point in Irish history.

        • Deco

          Capitalist consequences for capitalist failure is a rule – if you buy bonds in Irish banks, then the insurance provider is supposed to rate those bonds, and measure the risk.

          That is their business, and what they get paid to do. The investments went sour. But the EU has decided that this is not fair.

          I think there might even be a rule in the Lisbon Treaty prohibiting this sort of provision. I remember listening to Tony Benn pointing out that the Lisbon Treaty regards capitalism as the only acceptable model for economic activity. Something which no other constitution stipulates. But here it is circumvented.

          Except when the wrong people (the well connected) get stuck with the losses. Or when the entire banking system starts panicking.

          You are right. People are to blame. People are suffering as a consequence of believing the dominant thinking of the past twenty years. It did not add up. It was all bull.

    • liam

      Deco,

      A through denouncement. I disagree with your conclusions however, the have always had and will continue to have the option to tell the EU to stick its ‘bailout’, and force our EU partners to shoulder some of the blame for this.

      We have lost our sovereignty not because of the EU but because the country is run by idiots.

      And far from being arrogant, the Irish (despite recent advances) are still an astonishingly insecure people. This is why an argument along the lines of “the deal has been approved by the IMF and the EU” seems like a reasonable one as far as the Govt is concerned.

  21. Deco

    By the way, for those opposed to the bailout terms, there is a way out.

    It is the same option that existed for the Anglo Bailout.

    It could have been invoked over the bailout of Nepoto(INBS).

    It is the same option that existed for NAMA.

    In fact, it probably could have been invoked to keep us out of the Euro.

    Article 45 of Bunreacht na hEireann.

    As before, McUseless will sign the deal into law, and ignore Article 45 (again).

  22. dwalsh

    @ michaelcoughlan et al
    There is a war going on. It’s the third world war. We all expected it to be a global military conflict – a nuclear holocaust – but it is an economic holocaust. From the perspective of most humans it is and will be an invisible war. It will be managed in a compartmentalised or regional manner. There will be multiple sideshows (including some low-level military activity) to keep everybody’s attention off the big picture. What is the big picture? My guess is the super elite have realised (for decades now) that our current economic model of consumer capitalism is unviable; it will destroy the biosphere if allowed to continue. We cannot bring 6 or 8 or however many billion people up to the levels of consumption we in the ‘advanced economies’ have enjoyed for the past century or more. So the crisis (or the war) is a transition crisis. Transition to a new world order. The present stage is the bankrupting of the nations as a prelude to the introduction of the first level of the new global governance systems; which will be based on a global central banking system with oversight of the budgets of the by them impoverished and no longer sovereign debtors nations of the world.
    The only chance we have of avoiding the holocaust of economic collapse is if politicians begin to wake up and realise what is really happening. We do have to change our systems – that is not an optional matter – but it does not have to done in this Armageddon manner…if the right leadership can come forward.
    So far the only politician I hear making anything like the right sounds are Angela Merckel and her finance minister Schaeuble. But generally politically there is a lack of clear sight of the real issues facing the human race at this time; and a lack of vision as to a rational and humane global civilisation which is now within our possible reach. Instead we are blighted by a vision of a civilisation founded on greed and excess; the golden calf of the market and the religion of mammon.

    • Spot on Shock Doctrine (Read the book) has been applied to Ireland.
      The majority 64% on J Duffy think IMF is good in comparison to FF gov.!!
      Clever Resistance is called for and the best we can do for now is STOP this deal going through. your only wepons are your vote and your money and your debt

    • Zaphod

      Look at Venezuela, Bolivia and their neighbours.
      We could do the same, it would spread, we could help save the world here folks.

  23. Malcolm McClure

    Word of the week is ‘Banjaxed’ – thanks, Joan Burton.
    For those who weren’t around at the time, this description of our homeland, as it sank beneath a previous wave of debt, was favoured by Gay Byrne in the 1980s, when he said “the country is banjaxed!” and “Will the last person to leave please turn out the lights?”
    Some accounts translate banjaxed as hobbled and Reuters has it as hovelled.
    Better equivalent is probably “knackered” but do I detect a kind of evil spell implication in the word?

  24. Land n Gold

    Peter Schiff say we should default

    http://jsmineset.com/

  25. I read a lot of (well justified) criticism from David and other commentators on this blog about the present government and FF in particular. But does anyone really believe that the so-called ‘opposition’ are in any way working towards a different outcome?

    I listened to Pat Rabbitte on Pat Kenny’s radio show this morning (wow, they even share the same name). They were having a great little natter between themselves. But when the question was posed directly to the said Mr Rabbitte he completely avoided it. And Pat Kenny for his part was going softly, softly too. He’s capable of much more aggressive questioning.

    So my point is this: Is not the so-called ‘criticism’ of FF and the Greens merely a ploy for the ‘alternative’ government to pursue exactly the same strategy when they are handed the reins of power. Of course they’ll use the justification of saying that ‘the previous administration tied their hands.’

    Plus ça change

    • Land n Gold

      Your correct none of the politicians have got what it takes, we need a M.Collins character to rally and unit the masses,get enough people to withhold paying credit cards mortgage and tax, companies should pay their staff directly not through bank account this would spook the banks and then the TD’s into listening,then tell the banks and bondholders/Eu/IMF to shove it.

    • Deco

      +1.
      Oscar – you said it.

      IBEC and ICTU run Ireland by means of proxies, called political parties. George Lee spilled the beans on FG and IBEC having a love-in in January. Nobody in the media covered it. Lee was excluded because the insiders in FG did not trust him. Basically, you can’t trust an honest man to keep his mouth shut.

      Click on the link below and search for the word “technical”.

      http://www.politics.ie/economy/140523-anglo-irish-bank-bondholders-revealed-8.html

      Also Matt Coopers book “Who (really) runs Ireland” lists a lot of the leading known personalities. There are many unknowns also. ISBN 978-1-844-88167-3.

      These people control the advertising revenues of the media, and can use this budget to get favourable coverage. They can even get their stooges like Dan McLaughlin to write weekly columns in The Irish Times telling us to spend more, and be “bullishly optimistic”.

      Just look at media coverage of AIB over the last two years. Effectively, focus on coverage of Anglo, Seanie Fitz, Fingers, as the baddies. It is not what is said that is instructive, as what is ommitted.

    • liam

      It might be instructive to turn that question around, starting with one fundamental assumption: we cannot reasonably expect any administration to act in our best interests in the first instance.

      Unless forced to do so.

      Reach for your Gandhi or O’Connell and consider the power that making the country ungovernable has.

  26. fram7rip

    Iceland are my heros!
    When the banksters told them they owed xxx the government who took these ridiculous loans was replaced. Then the new government said they are not our debts. You made the stupid loans to those stupid people we are …not responsible for their actions. Go get payment from them. Iceland did not take on the debt of a few greedy idiots. This should be seen as a bad loan by a bank. The banksters tried to leverage a country and the people spoke back saying “not our debts”. The banksters should lose as they made the rididulous loans. Screw’em……….

    What a great example ……… I hope Ireland and all others follow their example.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/the-day-the-euro-died-2146288.html

    • Julia

      Excellent article dwalsh. I read ” A Modest Proposal ” a few months ago myself and was struck by the similarity between the upper class absentee landlords and the bankers/EU elite. There you go, that was written in the 1700s.

      Incidently, I heard recently that university scholars have worked out that a recession occurs in the same area every 26 years. Amazing isn’t it? Every generation can be relied upon to forget the mistakes of the previous one.

  27. ict

    Can I ask a question of the more financially literate contributors? (I am not an ecconomist, although like most citizens of this sorry state, I’ve become an amateur one in recent weeks.)

    Morgan Kelly, in his now famous “we’re all doomed” IT article of a few weeks ago referred to what I understood as a simple and sensible rule of thumb; namely that when country borrows, the interest rate must be less than the sum of the growth rate over the term plus the inflation rate over the term.

    Fair enough I thought at the time.

    Today I see the EC estimates our expected growth rate for 2011 at 0.9%. On it’s website the ECB say their policy is to aim to keep inflation at circa 2%.

    In other words, (barring an improbable surge in growth from 2012 onwards), the interest rate on this bail out is around twice the upper limit of what the EC/ECB’s own figures suggest is repayable.

    Could this be right, or have I missed something?

    • BrianC

      You know more than you think.

      Maybe you could offer your services to Brian Lenihan et al and enlighten them and bring them in from their abject dark ignorance.

    • That’s a real “The Emperor wears no clothes” comment if I ever saw one. Well spotted.

    • Interest on IMF/EFSF package = 5.8%
      Growth .9% + Inflation 2% = 2.9%

      Shortfall: 2.9%

      See below: “€17.5 billion will be financed by an Irish contribution from banking system and its pension fund (the NPRF)” will be spent first on the banks and will go quickly because of €10 bn capitalisation fund

      http://bit.ly/eMjave

      “Banks will receive €10bn for immediate recapitalisation and €25bn in contingency funding, while the other €50bn will finance Irish budget deficits.”

      http://bit.ly/fCu0bP

      “Financial package will cover needs up to €85 billion: €10 billion for immediate recap measures, €25 billion on a contingency basis for banking system support, and €50 billion for budget needs. €17.5 billion will be financed by an Irish contribution from banking system and its pension fund (the NPRF). The remainder €17.5 will come from EFSF, UK, Scandinavian countries, and the IMF.”

      From figures above, the €10 bn + €25 bn which is exactly twice Irish contribution means we are into
      the IMF/EFSF money for €17.5 bn immediately!

      This means taxpayers will have to cough up €.4375 bn of a loss to pay for the cost of that contribution to the banks alone.

      Further drawdowns above that to pay for current deficit will be required. Add that to our other debt obligations!

      We are first in line for a default! Better we do it now, but we won’t!

  28. @Michael, Wills

    The IFSC had many a sweet deal going not only on ‘double irish’ ‘dutch sandwich’ CT but Bermuda/Irish wild west banking tricks for German banks such as jurisdictional arbitrage in Wills’ link which perhaps led to Hypo losses on CDO’s or whatever in subprime collapse, but lets not blame German banks. Ireland wild west banking was at fault aided and abetted by Government and regulator, that’s why Germans pissed off. They’ve a right to be. Who are being bailed out? Irish banks and their bondholders who were fed by loose regulation as they fed upon a property bubble scam as well just as they now feed on taxpayers and IMF ‘bailout’!

    Who is paying for it all? Fellow debt slaves!

  29. THE ENEMY WITHIN or…. There is a way out!

    The Way Out, Donegal – XI 29th 2010, HD Version, best viewed Fullscreen:

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4914840/thewayout.jpg

    Morning,

    I think this Monday is a historical moment in Irish history.

    We were raided, raided by foreign interests and a financial elite represented by EU and IMF, using a criminal government that had no mandate anymore since a long time, essentially acting like a totalitarian government that forces debts on this Nation and sentenced the entire country to become vassals of EU and IMF technocrats.

    I read this above sentence a few times, and it is hard to believe that you have to write something like this, but I have no other words for what was forced upon every citizen in this small country.

    The so called bailout, which is nothing but a Heist, was “negotiated” – Not! – in total secrecy and behind closed doors. Results were presented yesterday in the usual manner “There is no other way!”, which of course, is a big pile of pig shit. There were many ways, but the Insiders secure their circles and sell out entire countries instead of protecting their citizens against rogue Banksters.

    Politics from here on is obvious, the spin already written, something down the lines like: “The facts are on the table, let’s move on and not dwell on the past. It is the best deal we could secure on behalf of the Irish Taxpayer blahblahblah” Yeah right!

    It is a fact that this country has been morally bankrupted by these Insiders and their executioners, it’s future sold out for the benefit of liars and thieves that run banks and who deceived us since three years with their never ending game of ever increasing losses, hiding debts.

    The endless lies were not only produced by bankers, but equally the politicians who were supposed to protect this country and their citizens from harm. Of course, in their terminology this sounds different. They just adapted to new circumstances. Well this is certainly true, they are specialists in camouflage and adaption, I simply call it lies. These circumstances were dictated by vested interest groups and bankers, again, in total secrecy and against the clear majority will of the people.

    The actions they took are not only disgusting to the bone and makes an honest man’s blood boil, their actions are to be considered as warfare on their citizens, for the benefit of senior bondholders, entire nations are to be enslaved by the debt trap and hey, this is the cheapest possible labor force of tomorrow. Copy and paste german labor market policies is already in the drawer of our highly intelligent minsters and their overpaid sernior civil servants, the implementers.

    Again, you need to remember the rhetoric that accompanied the events at all time; ‘There is no other way’, it is so blatantly obvious, it is painful to listen to these indoctrinations over and over again, it reminds me to North Korea’s PR policies, they are similar. N-Koreas ambassador was welcome with applause in the Dail and Seamus Kirk wished him a pleasant trip and mutually beneficial talks. OUCH! You could not make it up. This happened on the day N-Korea attacked S-Korea. Hey, this are the people who are paid by the taxpayer, they invited N-Korea and host their ambassador, no doubt VIP package with sightseeing and meeting influential business people. How fucking convenient. My jaw dropped on the table when I watched that on the internet. So far for a neutral country, inviting mass murderers and scum bags for dinner. Not in my name, not in my name!

    I am listening to the news as I write here, and they say ‘Opposition parties are furious…’, well you know, if there would be a valid opposition in this country worth mentioning the events would not have unfold this way, lately on March 30th this year, any opposition worth a cup of tea would have called on the people to dow tools. But there is no functioning political opposition in this country that is governed by inconsiderate right wing party.

    I am not talking about the numbers they presented us with, they made them up as they went along for three years now, and they continue doing so. Early into this Heist some economic commentators called our banks a bottom less pit, and that certainly is the case.

    We still do no know the full story why Anglo Irish Bank was included in this deal, and kept alive against all common sense advise, against a nation telling them to close this bank and repudiate it’s debts.

    On the contrary, first they lied about the reasons why they have to pump billions into Anglo, then they refused to have a public inquiry, and they made another ‘honorable’ person head up it’s affairs. You know, it is really funny how they insist to refer to themselves as honorable people. They are anything but honorable people, they are the biggest scum that walks the earth!

    The by elections in Donegal, well, forget about the 20% voting FF again, Donegal is not representative of the rest of Ireland in that respect. We have people here poisoning Golden Eagles, and typically the officials know precisely who these people are, but no one took any action to stop them. Hypocrites!

    The message however could not have been any clearer, -30% votes in the midst of FF stronghold equals termination, and this is exactly what they would face in a general election, this party will be eliminated come the next election in January. The alternatives are daunting and anything but promising, I consider many votes not to be “FOR” votes but rather “AGAINST’” votes in lack of any intelligent longterm alternative on the political landscape, for now that is.

    However, I give any party my vote who declares to not honor the contract signed by FF traitors with EU and IMF, and reopens negotiations from scratch, tells Rehn and Chopra the deal is off, never was legit to start with!

    A massive haircut for senior bondholders is not only an option, it is foundation of new talks, it is part of Europe’s future policy considerations, and now needs to be part of the new Irish contract, and this is not negotiable! Whether you have ‘no appetite’ on that is none of our concern, we have nothing to loose and we are not on the planet to safeguard wrong EU policies that have caused the financial Heist to start with.

    To force feed banks with the NPRF will not be on the table, as this money shall be allocated for programs benefiting Ireland and securing citizens needs.

    Additional debts agreed upon will have a facility of 20 years and not 7years, a variable rate is not acceptable, and the rate shall be no higher than 3.5 %- 4.5%, fix not variable.

    Negotiations will be performed in PUBLIC and not behind closed doors, all talks will be broadcasted life and at minimum two plans have to be discussed. When negotiations are in the final stages, a referendum will be prepared to ask the Nation. This concerns all of us, and it has to be in public.

    So if there is a Party out there that clearly manages to communicate something down these lines, they have my vote!

    Equally important for a political party taking over business is to start two things:

    Immediately establish a Fact Finding Commission including members of the public and grant special powers. Forget about your tribunal structures where barristers like Lenny the Liar are only creaming funny money.

    The Constitution has to be reformed from the ground up, no, scratch that, you can not fix what is unfixable, we need an entirely new constitution to become a true democratic Republic of Ireland, anything less than that is a waste of time.

    To wait on Cowen to tell us when we will have elections is not an option either. This government has to go now, and this by all possible means. Downing tools, general strike until they call elections, whatever democratic means necessary are required now to act and tell them we will not be enslaved by their forced upon us debts. Period!

    At the core of all actions shall be one thing and one thing only, to protect the people of this Nation from harm and unnecessary cruel hardships.

    Now this is a funny coincidence, while I am typing here at 8:15 am, David is on news talk and talks exactly about my above point on politicians, just the other way around.

    David: Do not vote for any politician who support this deal!

    Yep, 100% agreed and this can not be overstressed enough!

    Anything else does NOT make sense. The 3% target is a joke to begin with, a year longer or not, it is just not realistic.

    They are stealing the pensions to give it to bankers, again. Not a single of their policies has worked in the past 3 years, none. Their numbers were wrong every time. They are lying and cheating since over three years, all they are doing now is hiding behind other faked authorities to pretend their steps are the way out and there would be not other way. – Bullshit! – This is rhetorical totalitarian warfare style, by reducing the subjects to talk about to one only, making their way they only way, and then pretend there would be a open discussion.

    Make no mistake; Negotiations did not take place at all! They were told what to do. So they are lying again, or did you expect them to tell the truth for a change? This thing about 6.7 % was just another kite, leak some stuff which is higher and come out with lower figures.

    To date, nobody knows the true extend of derivates exposure of Irish banks! This is a government failure as they did not grab them by the balls at all, but operated them in Lenny the Lair’s speech ‘at arms length’.

    To date no results from the Anglo investigation have come forward, the whole investigation was a joke to begin with.

    Whatever will be, one thing is for certain, we have to make sure that not a penny further goes into any Irish Bank until we replaced all boards and send in the troops to open the vaults, make sure those passwords are retrieved, and investigate all those matters as in 1. above, by using a TRUE fact finding commission that is made up by people like David McW. Constantin G etc, and by members of the public, the latter without party affiliations and they can be chosen random, those who offer to participate throw their name in!

    Without this fact finding committee, we are deprived from learning of mistakes and enable the emperors to do it all over, this has to stop!

    No more secret behind closed door deals with foreign EU bondholder representatives and IMF Mafia, period! Life debates, negotiations and fact findings via Internet and Television, transparent for everyone in the country to follow, and common sense applied, no Dail Seamus Kirk BS….”Resume your seat deputy, will you resume your seat when the chair is on it’s feet?” We have no use for your stage managed pre fabricated lies and pseudo debates anymore. We need REAL democracy to be applied and truthful informations to be put forward, without all that, this country remains psychologically crippled and paralyzed, just what they want it to be until they force their debts on us. Screw that!

    Anything else… read my lips….

    We won’t accept that!

    Best
    Georg

    • BrianC

      Are you serious about the North Korean bit. Surely you are mistaken. Well I suppose we have a bit of history in that department with Dev keeping up the Diplomatic decorum per offering OUR condolences on the demise of Adolf.

      • Hell Yes Brian… I AM serious, I saw it with my own eyes on the Internet.

        Kirk mentioned the ambassador, he stood up, a banner was lit up in the bottom of the screen, I think it said “distinguished guest” people applauded, and he wished him a pleasant stay in Ireland and mutual beneficial talks.

        • mishco

          Indeed, using the internet and my sources here in S. Korea, I have discovered what the mutually beneficial talks have been about. It will be known to future generations as the Last Great Property Bubble.

          Sources close to Kim Jong-Il here have revealed that Dear Leader has come up with another wheeze. Having a plethora of “zombie palaces” dotted around the country gathering dust with no buyers in sight, DL has sent his roving ambassador (“Don’t forget to rove back again”) straight to Dublin armed with a property portfolio, some of which has been leaked to the vile capitalist press: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/06/01/2010060101049.html.

          Any interest in a 150-room bijou manse complete with
          train, swimming-pool with heated slide and state-of-the-art gym? Our Minister for Health and Children got in there first. Then there was a flurry of interest in another palace located convenient to a brewery transplanted from England. The Taoiseach was placed top of the long list here. A palace near the best (and only) 18 hole golf course created great interest, and ended up going to a very high phone bidder with former bank connections, now claiming to be almost penniless. Even the inclusion of pictures of a Labor Camp inadvertently printed in the prospectuses ended in a TD booking it for a swashbuckling developer friend at a knock-down price.

          DL’s personal 150-foot yacht was set aside as an incentive for anyone who would be prepared to spend 6 months of the year in future leading the FF Party in opposition. There were no takers there.

          DL knows that, unlike Ceaucescu, who could only muster a helicopter to take him a few miles up the road when it mattered, the Order of the Golden Circle is better prepared, with a Jumbo Jet carefully maintained in a secret location awaiting the departure of the Great Unwanted.

          Whether DL is prepared to accept IOUs in part-payment at this stage has yet to be confirmed, though it is known that tough negotiations are still continuing around the terms of payment, with one TD quoted off the record as suggesting that DL would be quite happy to accept NAMA assets, as he would have no idea what they were, unlike everyone else.

    • Georg
      Time to read your great article in a world of soundbites the key message from you”However, I give any party my vote who declares to not honor the contract signed by FF traitors with EU and IMF, and reopens negotiations from scratch, tells Rehn and Chopra the deal is off, never was legit to start with!”
      Stop the heist we aint got time now for new movements revolutions do Gandhi on themput the pressure on FG Lab t who by will NOT be in power if enough people suscribe to the price of the vote as outlined above.

  30. Tull McAdoo

    It is like as if Cowen and Comical Lenny were pursuing some sort of “scorched earth policy” with regard to Irelands Fiscal position. Fianna Fail are on the way out for God knows how long , so they are leaving nothing, in terms of Finance behind them for any future Administration to use,to enable Ireland to trade its way out of this present morass.
    I mean they have squandered every cent they could get their hands on. Now they are back for the last piggy bank on the island, namely the National Pension Reserve Fund. I am sure that their Capital programme will include some money for their construction pals, and all to be paid for from the NPRF. I mean the cheek of the so and so’s trying to sign up future Governments to their ill conceived programmes.
    I mean it is like as if, Cowen and Lenny were standing below at the Cliff’s of Moher just directing the last of the Economy over the bloody edge, having directed the bulk of the economy over it already with NAMA , Guarantees, Anglo (FF)Bondholder redemptions, IMF deals and so on. I mean to say, where does it end with these people. I ask again is it again “scorched earth policy” ??????

    • I think it is the combination of arrogance and ineptitude, a party that is longer in power in Ireland than they can count, they are so convinced of themselves, the world was their oyster…. until they had to face the heirs of Bismarck and Richelieu….

      There is a reason why Ireland was considered the laughing stock…. just look at the Dail and the performance of the so called ‘speakers’….

      Then again, what could you expect from people who freely admit their most worthy education took place in a pub…

      • liam

        I think I might have asked here several times over the last couple of years…. so what are we going to do about it?

        • good question…. I was hoping something might have come out of Kilkenomics to be honest… a combined manifesto of some sorts…. Fintan O’Toole is activ, but well… he has his own agenda….

          Then there is this people before profits movement.

          So something is happening, but is it enough?

  31. Oh….

    Julain Assange just announced that the next large uploads to Wikileaks will deal with the financial Institutions…. he announced documents of a major bank to be published….

    Very nice!

    This chap is just what the doctor ordered!

    • liam

      I’d like to do a ‘follow the money’ on Mr Assange… While his philosophy of transparency appeals to me, all forms of media deserve a skeptical approach, this guy no less than anybody else.

      • Hi Liam,

        I agree, a healthy dose of sceptic is the mother of prudence, but equally, actions count more than words alone, and what Wikileaks acted upon so far has build up their credentials in my book.

        He speaks of a major bank to be at the center of the next uploads.

        Could be anything, UBS, Paribas, Credit Suisse, GS, DB…. as long as along these lines, it could be spectacular and contribute to waking up even more people, hopefully!

  32. DC

    The stark reality of the consequences of the bailout/mugging.

    “The Irish “bailout” plan, with its EUR 54,800 cost per household, is by all accounts a modern-era “Long Day’s Journey Into Night”. Ireland’s future, by the way, looks a lot more bleak than Iceland’s. Iceland took a different path (debt default and a devaluation of 60%). Two years on, Iceland is rebounding: exports and manufacturing are growing by 20%, tourism is back near all-time highs, real wages are rising, unemployment is declining sharply, interest rates fell from 18% to 5.5% and the stock market rebounded 50% from its lows. In Ireland, GDP is contracting at a 9.7% rate; real wages, price levels, the money supply and exports are falling; and unemployment is stuck at 14%.”

  33. I said I would get back re improving the forum software. Here’s my suggestion.

    In the wake of the financial war currently being waged across the eurozone and particularly here in Ireland, posters willing to contribute and seek/share good links/information could do with good forum software.

    For very limited occasional use the WordPress software supporting DmcW is perfectly adequate. However, for those attempting par2 information exchange in an engaged way, it does have some limitations.

    So, here’s my suggestion. Keep the software above.

    But for those who want an improved forum experience could http://www.phpbb.com/ be installed on server alongside the WordPress software. This is not difficult to do. Or install it on another server. eg I’ve installed it on my own server and it worked very well. I had it in support of a site namasayno.com since allowed to lapse following enactment of the NAMA legislation.

    It would have a link or bridge between both forums.

  34. Consider this:

    http://bit.ly/hCfKvS

    also http://bit.ly/hqJAHm (link from Wills above)

    “German banks set up subsidiaries in Ireland. These subsidiaries were often registered as completely Irish companies. Back in Germany the German regulator (BaFin) had strict and enforced rules. Very good rules for the most part. Far, far better than Britain or Ireland. But these good rules, properly enforced meant German banks could not do many of the most lucrative and in hind sight reckless kinds of deals.

    So the German banks would do the figures and work it all out in Frankfurt, then send a banker over to Ireland, get them to sit at ‘their’ desk in Ireland, in the Irish bank, and do the deal there. The legal registration of the deal and the ‘oversight’ were all Irish. This is known in the financial world as jurisdictional arbitrage. You and I would call it cheating if we were feeling charitable and lying if we weren’t.

    The Banker flies back to Germany, where the German bank hasn’t done any deal, and therefore has done nothing wrong. The deal was properly overseen and approved by the appropriate Irish financial authorities and the profits would be banked at a very happy Irish bank. If any management of the ‘deal’ was required an Irish company would be hired, there are many, and an Irish manager often living not far from Cork, would ‘manage’ the money in and out. I have spoken to such people. Usually I can hear the sweat coming off them as they ask how I got their number and where did I get my information. To which I would reply that the Internet is a very large place and never, never forgets.”

    So we have IFSC doing almost €2 trillion in business with loose regulation such as the above mostly around CDO derivative trading and it would appear loose Bermuda style regulation. The CDO/CDS trading that brought the Landesbanks under the microscope vis a vis Hypo transaction losses see link above.

    Was it not therefore less than unusual to see the troika of Clown, Suds of Giant Squid and Bruton head of the IFSC suddenly appear all over the media
    telling us every penny had to be repaid to Anglo senior bondholders (to protect the CDS exposure of GS and the whole of the IFSC) plus to ensure the scams around Corporation Tax eg Double Irish CT scam similar to ‘jurisdictional arbitrage’ scam above.

    Perhaps Primetime would like to take a look at IFSC
    and activities such as the above. They might be encouraged to do so in the wake of future shortfalls from the state in funding because of our ‘rescue’ torpedo aimed at the Irish economy from IMF/EFSF.

    OT caught the excellent investigation into illicit tobacco trade on RTE last night. To be fair, while mostly its Pravda RTE, occasionally they do a world class investigation.

    Time we began to defend the real citizens of Ireland in the financial war being waged against us!

    • uchrisn

      Its good to be able to read Davids articles to figure out exactly whats happening and give a good idea of what step should be taken next. Its kind of frustrating to watch usually the exact opposite of his advice being applied and the subsequent fallout.
      It seems to me at this stage that most governments are being both bullied and led up the garden path by large international soverign debt buyers.
      These people are instructing the governments – ‘ the best thing to do is to bail out the banks/contries this will bring certainty to the markets and you can lend from us at lower interest rates’
      Then once the investors have their losses covered they proceed as normal charging even higher interest rates.
      I think that these people and their teams have much higher salaries, IQs and knowledge of the markets than most elected officals, including Merkel and Obama. For them its a game and the prize is profit, they are currently winning hands down.
      If only governments hired people with the IQs and knowledge of the markets who have some integrity like David McWiliams or Simon Johnson we would do a lot better.

      • Pastor of Muppets

        *IF* governments behaved like this @tight_loops Donegal SW’s newest TD leads from the front on TD wages: http://tinyurl.com/27hsvs2 we might have people with the honesty, integrity and cop-on to hire the brightest and best to advise how to handle the purse strings. If nothing else, a government that would rule to pay all politicians the average man’s wage would reduce the financial waste and perhaps attract less gombeens.

      • Deco

        The problem with hiring people of ability, is that they tend to out-argue and out-point your freinds who were appointed in spite of their medicrity.

        “I dident appoint them to state boards because they gave me munny – I appointd dem to state boards becoz they were me frennds..” Bertie Ahern – when questionned about the fact that participants in various Digouts got state employment down the years.

  35. Peter Atkinson

    You can talk facts, figures, percentages all day but the way I see this has played out is the idiot European banks and to a lesser extent the world banks lent well educated tossers and gamblers in Ireland vulgar sums of money on the premise that they could bleed out vast fortunes for their clients with reckless abandon.Well they managed to “break the house” and rather than take the losses like all gamblers do they rounded up their cronies in the ECB and the IMF, did a Bertiesque “whip around” and negotiated a deal whereby they break the house a second time.

    Regurgitating all this by way of graphs and Powerpoint presentations serves no purpose at this stage.We clearly know that our junta have no intention of defaulting so I say to all you mortgage holders now, show them the way.Make it an act of disobedience and defiance by giving it to them up the ass like they gave it to you.Granted a lot of people still have the flat screen TVs and 4x4s they managed to buy by “consolidating” their loans on the cheapest ever finance they could get their hands on.I imagine the houses will have some residual value in 40 years time but unless the 4x4s and tv’s become collectors items they will be long consigned to recyclers.

    Remember, you can evict five or ten families but when it starts to run to hundreds and thousands thats when it becomes unmanageable.A simplistic solution to this problem would be to allow homeowners avail of a tenancy like agreement and pay an equivalent economically manageable rent to the co-owners, ie the banks.We talk about debt for equity.Well this is our answer to the banks.You become a shareholder in the house while still generating a revenue stream.You get to put the house on the almighty balance sheet and as sure as day follows night the upturn will show a healthy profit eventually.

    What is the panic to implement an ill thought out quick fix.Whose interests is this in.Certainly not the borrower.And remember, banks only exist because of them.Not much point in depositors putting their cash in banks getting an interest rate when no one is in a position to borrow it.

  36. Deco

    Deleveraging is a slow painful process. When deleveraging occurs, there is usually deflationary pressure. We can seen that if the mortgage bubble goes down by 7 Billion in ten months, then assumming constant conditions in the economy, we can extrapolate how long it will take to reduce the total mortgage debt by half, for example.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1130/credit-business.html

    Deleveraging requires continual innovation and regeneration in the private sector economy to ensure that there is employment sufficient to reduce borrowing.

  37. dwalsh

    My bet is that the Irish banks and the European banking system and the entire global banking system…is sitting on piles of toxic off-balance-sheet derivatives that have imploded. The derivatives black hole is probably in the order of more than a quadrillion. Given a current global GDP of perhaps 65trillion or so, it will require generations of debt slavery to fill-in the derivatives black hole in the global banking system.
    So the only sensible thing to do is to put the entire global banking system into bankruptcy receivership; freezing all activities save for those of the high street banks which cater for the day to day monetary requirements of citizens and legitimate businesses. The financial sector must then be entirely dismantled and its toxic products safely disposed of.
    In the interim while the mess is being cleaned up, money should be issued by sovereign governments at minimal interest to fund investment in major infrastructure projects that will give employment, restore hope and prepare for the environmental challenges that lie ahead for our species.
    This is the only way to resolve what is a global crisis; but it will require exceptional leadership. Even as we face economic and environmental Armageddon many powerful groups and individuals will persist in pursuing purely short-term selfish goals. They are a natural part of our species — the sociopaths and psychopaths — not to the mention those who are simply ignorant and brutish.
    Question is will the leadership emerge…will we make through to the next level of civilisation…a stable rational humane global civilisation that is sustainably integrated into the biosphere?

    • http://bit.ly/g28L3w

      “ACA Financial Guaranty sold protection totaling US$69 billion while having capital resources of around US$425 million. When ACA was downgraded below “A” credit rating, it was required to post collateral of around US$ 1.7 billion. ACA was unable to meet this requirement. The banks have agreed to a “forbearance agreement” whereby the buyer of protection waived the right to collateral temporarily. ACA subsequently has been downgraded to “CCC” reducing the value of the CDS contract and the protection offered. The problems at ACA are not unique.”

      Not unique, eg GS controversy regarding CDS exposure to AIG http://bit.ly/14nhdv

      Of the €34 bn taxpayers are liable for because of Anglo, how much of that was hedged against CDS loan guarantees that should have protected the Irish taxpayer?

      If not, why is Seanie not before the courts for financial mismanagement if not downright fraud?

      ‘None so blind as those who don’t want to see’ We hear from Ajai Schopra and Honahan they are continuing to go through the Anglo loan book, but don’t expect to find any financial black holes. If so, why hasn’t a full account disclosure been given by Anglo on its CDS transactions?

      If Anglo had CDS insurance, why hasn’t it been triggered? Probably because it took out no such guarantees to protect its own loan book, instead betting in the market selling CDS to cover speculative gamble dealings of its own.

      We need full disclosure.

      • dwalsh

        Honahan did briefly mention derivatives during his recent lunchtime interview; mainly to deflect a comment made by Pat Rabbitte. Rabbitte is suspicious, like we all should be, about the scale of the losses and suspects derivatives are behind it. His suspicions are almost certainly correct.
        Listening carefully to Honahan’s brief aside I understood him to say the banks had used derivatives to leverage capital and those derivatives have imploded.
        But Honahan is not the man to sort this mess out. Listening to him it was clear he is a nice man in an impossible situation; he is basically an academic; and I would say he is no threat to the sharks in the banks. Liklihood is we wont know the full scale of the losses for some time yet. I certainly do not believe the latest figures are the end of the story.
        The other thing which I think a lot of people are missing is the global context. As things stand our position seems at best to be a hedge to pospone the inevitable. The inevitable when it comes could very well be a cascade collapse of the entire European banking system. I think Europe will keep us on-line until then…hopefully.
        In fact such a pan-European collapse is perhaps the only hope we have because it will take something of that magnitude to force the political elites to wake up and realise what is happening. It would hopefully initiate a complete review and restructuring — even cancellation — of the impossible debt levels in the financial sector which have been created by means of these fraudulent and unregulated derivatives contracts.
        We shall see.

  38. breltub

    Hi David,

    I have thought of an idea that might bring forward the inevitable default and bring down the government.

    The government and the banks are now one, so the real power is no longer the ballot box, but the current/deposit account.
    If a movement was initiated, and people switched their personal bank dealings from the distressed Irish banks to other European banks operating under our jurisdiction we would effectively be taking them out of the game. The only power they really have is the core deposit capital, which they are now topping up with 10billion of this bailout to meet capital requirement.

    By moving their money people would be removing deposits on the balance sheets of AIB/BOI/EBS thus weakening them further, and by proxy, the government that is bending over backwards to keep the charade alive.

    By undermining this bailout, we don’t have to wait until a general election.

    I was at your show in Cork and you said to vote for a party that would reject this bailout and from there we can begin to sort ourselves out and get rid of debt instead of taking on more.

    So if the people of this country switched their savings/bank dealings to the non-”anglo-sphere” banks, it would be like a run on the banks, except a run on only the corrupt banks and this would force the hand of the ECB and the Government to get rid of these useless debt-filled entities.

    Personal savings are at 12% at the moment, so it would make this a very powerful movement, a run on the banks would be bad, but an orderly movement of funds from bad to good banks should force the issue, and once the strong banks are strong and the weak and corrupt have no hope of support or getting deposits from people, they will be culled.

    The benefits of this approach would be:
    1- There would not be a run on the whole banking system meaning liquidity in the system should not be to badly hampered in the short term.
    2- These receiver banks are safe and don’t need to shore up deposits on their balance sheets so that should increase liquidity in the short to medium term for business
    3- Being safe banks, it should prevent capital flight. Money is already flowing out of the country, so this should help keep it here.

    what do you, and other forum reader think of this idea?

    Regards,
    Brian

    ** I don’t mention Anglo, because I don’t know any normal people with an account there.
    ** I have already done this myself [Rabobank], only took some form filling.

    • mishco

      I am no economist, but if, say, I put my money in Ulster Bank / RBS (an “other European bank”), then, because RBS has large exposure to the Irish banks, won’t RBS suffer too? Maybe Rabobank has no exposure to our banks (nor, let’s hope, to Greek or Portuguese banks either!). But I somehow doubt it. I prefer the political route myself: get some honest and capable people in first, then hope they can sort out the mess. Let’s hope such people stand in the coming election.

      • breltub

        Ya, I agree this is no solution, the idea would be to hurry along the political change by putting extra pressure on the politicians in power at present to halt the direction they are taking this whole mess in.

        For them , it’s all about recapitalizing the banks and pretending nothing happened, back into the Dáil for some nice pensions and some civilized debate followed by free lunch and booze.

        I just think it could undermine what they are doing if enough people did it, and finally get us to a point where they are forced to face up to reality.

  39. LeoCorcoran

    Yesterday Patrick Honahan said that Ireland must pay a punitive rate of interest to discourage other nations from going down the same route – a form of moral hazard for nations within the eurozone. The promoter of this policy is Germany who wants to, at all cost, maintain the value of the Euro.

    This is akin to the French insisting on punitive reparations for the damage caused by Germany for WW1, except in the case of Ireland it was the action of the European Central Bank controlled by Germany and France which helped fuel the pro cyclical housing bubble in Ireland. It was further fuelled by German and UK banks recklessly lending to Irish banks. So in effect Irish taxpayers must be punished for the actions of the ECB and reckless lending of German and UK banks.

    This bailout of UK and German banks demonstrates to smaller countries that the EU acts in the interests of the larger members and the powerful economic interests in Europe.
    Their shameful treatment of Ireland is set to rebound on them. The Irish electorate will not tolerate this injustice and are determined that the next government will repudiate the actions of current government who are regarded as collaborators engaged in economic treason.

    • StephenKenny

      So it would have been fine by you if, during the last 15 years, European banks had charged the Irish more for loans than they charged their own citizens?

      I didn’t notice anyone complaining about the cheap loans then, but the’re demanding them now?

      It’s irrelevant anyway, as default is the only solution. There’s just a little dance going on now to enable everyone to get all their ducks in a row.

      The global financial system is seriously faulty. With all these bailouts, the probability of the real crash happening within the next five years is verging on the certain.

      • dwalsh

        The author of this very blogg did complain about the low interest rates.
        Anyway this is not about cheap loans; it is about the injustice that is being visited on the citizens of Ireland.

        • StephenKenny

          I should have said ‘with a few exceptions, no one’.

          Paragraph 2 is about cheap loans, except the attempt to compare it to the reparations, which were enforced via a military invasion.

          In my view it is not unjust because, as I said, default is the only solution, and it will occur. It’s just a matter of time.

    • Deco

      This EU stance on make some sort of moral stand is absurd. It is like King Knut telling the tide to stay out. Never mind that, it is also completely impractical and impossible to implement. It is a product of delusional thinking !!!

      Spain is very badly extended, with it’s 21% unemployment rate, 3 million empty residential units, and “off-balance-sheet” infrastructure “investment”, it’s quesionable GDP statistics, it’s labour market bottleneck, it’s funny mortgage banks, and it’s unliquidated building firms.

      Eventually this issues will get found out, and Brussels and the ECB will get found out for not knowing what was going on. And if they ask the same terms of Spain, Spain will simply collapse in a heap. These rules are a type of pretence. A bit like the EU stress test that gave the stamp of approval to the lads in the Bankcentre in Ballsbridge. It is a load of nonsense.

  40. ¬¬ Still awaiting spreadsheet for individual interest rates against each of the contributors to ‘the rescue’ to show average 5.8% ¬¬

    Suspect its like

    EFSF 6.7%
    IMF 4.9%

    Average 5.8%

    ……Eurogroup nails down the coffin……

    • Our gombeens would have signed it if it was 6% plus, anything to get more time at the helm for their wreaking ball cronies to enjoy salaries of €200 – €230k while cutting the minimum wage by up to 13% against a background of mass deportations due to unemployment and growing debt.

  41. Incident

    Every Irishman, indeed every European, should spend 3 minutes of their valuable time listening to words of wisdom from the right-wing British MEP Nigel Farage -leader of UKIP.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?hl=en&v=2gm9q8uabTs

    • ‘Rescue’ came in here did a deal with a political cronies of FF behind the backs of citizens. Before they came, some said this would be great, IMF would sort the place, sort out outrageous high salaries draining the public expense, introduce a fairer system of taxation. Some went as far as to believe they would insist on a reduction of td’s and other political and social improvements.

      They left only after extracting support from their incompetent political stooges, with the message, we don’t care what shit you do, once you meet the quarterly repayment schedule for the IMF Sheriff of Nottingham….

      They’ve made the mess a whole lot bigger!

      • ‘Clown the Disgrace’……..€230 K plus expenses

        Cuts the Minimum Wage

        Says it all!

        Compare his outrageous salary of incompetence

        http://bit.ly/18qiRp

        It should be halved

        • Its a symbolic thing more than the money. Leadership
          of taking a cut and showing example and all that. Zero leadership of the Gombeen Irish Moron, this country needs big changes!

          Since Charlie was living off Ben’s paper bags, buying islands, helicopters and yachts, they probably figured, let’s give him this so he won’t do the paper bags

    • Deco

      Far more interesting is Sarkozy have too much booze before an interview.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uxb0JHqzlA&feature=related

      It seems that we are not the only country with a boozer in charge.

  42. Deco

    Here is an article written by an Economist from the Austrian School of Economic thinking titled the “subjugation of Ireland”. Below the link is the key quote.

    http://mises.org/daily/4876

    {
    There were two instruments to pressure the Irish government.

    The first is the financing that Irish banks receive from the European Central Bank (ECB). Since the financial crisis, Irish banks have depended on loans from the ECB. Without these loans, the Irish banks would go bankrupt, implying tremendous losses for the Irish government, which guaranteed its banks’ loans. Indeed, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the ECB, mentioned during the days in which the Irish government was still resisting a bailout that the ECB was not willing to extend the emergency loans to Irish banks forever. The second instrument was Germany’s threat of withdrawing from its guarantees. Once Germany takes away its guarantees for overindebted governments in the eurozone, these governments are sure to fail due to soaring interest rates. Thus Germany can pressure peripheral countries to make reforms or accept bailouts.
    }

    Now, basically this has not been mentioned anywhere in the media, either in Ireland or abroad. And it goes back to Michael O’Leary’s opinion that we lost our sovereignty when we started “living beyond our means” to quote the Old Don of Irish corruption.

    I have a proposal. We organize ourselves and make our state really efficient. Then we continue fixing our banks, and making them solvent. To the point that we can deal with the ECB as an equal. And then we tell the bondholders to go and take a bath.

    The point of the bailout is that we do not change our habits too much to the point that we become too competitive, and start getting too independent again. In other words that we don’t make any hard decisions like the Icelanders. But we can choose a path that for all practical purposes returns our economic capability to be as sovereign as any small country can expect to become.

    We ought to hurry up, because at some point in the next 12 months the real situation in the Spanish Finance sector will become public knowledge, and it is highly likely that it will emerge that the Spanish government is fudging the GDP figures.

    In other words, we should do austerity, not for the EU. But we should do it for the same reasons that it was pursued by the South Koreans, and Taiwanese a decade ago – to maintain independence. Being in debt is the source of all this misery, and effectively means that whoever gets elected in the Dail is controlled.

    We are going back to the point that if Europe is to work, then there must be consent and respect, the same as any relationship. At this stage it is getting abusive. We should have seen the signs with Ditherer and co overturning two referenda.

    • Deco

      The scale of the debt makes us very weak. We can negotiate, but our only card is the threat to bankrupt everybody. That is not a serious strategy. It is a threat, but there is nothing at the back of it. No doubt, we would have escaped it better than most – but there are deposits in other EU countries banks, and we would be held over a barrel for these.

    • Deco

      Where is the impetus coming from to sign this bailout ?

      http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE6AS00Y20101129

      {
      European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer (Governor of the Bank of France) on Monday brushed aside the possibility of investors taking losses on the value of sovereign bonds as talk of “haircuts” helped to push Ireland to accept an EU rescue package.

      ….

      “As far as I’m concerned, I exclude that there will be haircuts in the future,” Noyer told reporters.

      “It will be a major objective of all members of EU to do everything necessary to be in a position to fully honour their debts in the future. I exclude this as an eventuality even if it’s legally possible.”

      }

      So there you have it. There are double negatives being used which is a way of not using direct understand terminology.

      But basically, the head of the Bank of France, decided that there would be no haircuts for holders of Irish Bank Bonds.

      http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/vote-of-no-confidence.html

      {
      The exit poll by market participants, shown in the above chart, is a vote of no confidence for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet who forced German Chancellor Angela Merkel to abandon her plans to make bondholders participate in the pain.
      }

      also there was a plan in the US in the called the Brady Plan – which was a 30% write down of bank debt to Latin American concerns which actually stabilized the major Latin American economies.

      Now, I wonder will there be anything interesting in WikiLeaks in a few months concerning this ??? Let’s hope so.

    • Deco

      Our best strategy.
      Take the bailout money.
      Restabilise those clown companies in Ballsbridge.
      Make the state extremely efficient.
      Restore competitiveness, and get the private sector labour market fixed.
      This will stabilise the housing market and put an end to NAMA and get the banks solvent.
      Then give back the money loaned.
      Then when it comes to the bondholders – tell them that they are taking a cut. At that stage there will be others in the same situation. And it will be politically possible in Brussels – despite all the lobbyists.

      • Deco

        And it would help to collect every bit of dirt and muck that can be thrown at Brussels in the event of any confrontation.

        Think strategically, and wait until the conditions turn favourable.

      • @Deco, thx for that excellent link. I don’t think your strategy will work though. We can never hope to pay back all the money. Secondly, our banks are on life support from Europe with low interest rates that we cannot do without. Thirdly, with the bailout money comes a democratic deficit that takes away any autonomy we might have to build us into an escape ship. Here’s the relevant bits from your link in support of 3, they should be of great concern:

        “Due to the opposition, the Irish government has decided not to have general elections before the budget is passed. The budget includes an increase of the sales tax from 21 percent to 23 percent. Effectively, the Irish population is forced to assume the debts of banks and then pay them back over the years. No democratic vote on the bailout is allowed because the Irish would most certainly vote it down.

        …When Germany or Brussels tells Spain, Greece, or Ireland to reduce their deficits, the result for people living in these countries may be a reduced size of the government in the short run. But such centralization of power in the EU will likely prove to be disastrous for liberty in the long run. The European interventionists now claim that because there is one central bank we need one economic policy.

        Once fiscal policies are harmonized, there will be a tendency toward an increase of power in Brussels and then toward an increase of tax rates throughout the eurozone.

        The euro might be saved, but at the cost of building a strong, central European state, as national policymaking is transferred to Brussels in exchange for bailouts. The turmoil produced by the euro will then have served as an instrument for the development of a centralized state in Europe.”

        We are already a vassal satellite state similar to similar USSR states back in the Cold War.

        What we will be like in 5 years with this erosion of democracy?

  43. CitizenWhy

    Ireland new has a new landlord class reducing its citizens to serfs and tenant farmers. This does not have to be.

    What happened to the principle of Sein Fein (on our own)?

    Here’s what Ireland should have done, or a new government should do.

    1. NO GOVT MONEY FOR BANK BAILOUTS. Repudiate the pledge to pay private, corporate bank debts with taxpayer money. Let the executives, lenders and bondholders of those lavishly mismanaged banks pay the consequences, as real capitalism would dictate. Let those banks go into bankruptcy and work out their problems from there. As the current bailout plans are written, in excess of 300 billion euros of taxpayer money will be sent out of Ireland to German, British and French banks.

    2. CLOSE ALL IRISH BANKS FOR 3 DAYS TO WEEK, THEN … Then publish a list of banks that are safe for deposits. The govt should guarantee the deposits in Irish banks, thus, if need be, handing money over to its citizens, not foreign banks, thus boosting its economy.

    3. RESTORE THE IRISH POUND (PUNT), WITHDRAWING FROM THE EURO ZONE. Pay off its foreign debts in punts, a punt for a Euro. Or default o those debts, whichever the foreign banks prefer.

    4. RESTORING THE IRISH POUND WOULD MEAN far fewer imports, possibly more exports, and above all no Irish consumer spending in No. Ireland, the UK and the US. Consumer spending within Ireland would stabilize or grow.

    5. RESTORING THE IRISH POUND WOULD MAKE IT POSSIBLE to restore a sound and more modest Irish banking system, a sound mortgage lending system, and a sound business lending system. Real estate would find its true market level value – in Irish pounds. With Irish pounds as currency many would want to buy Irish real estate as a hedge against its currency. But they would have to buy in Irish pounds, at a pound to the Euro.

    6. FOREIGN BANKS WULD REFUSE TO LEND TO THE IRISH GOVT. So what, this would force reforms. The government would go back to depending on taxpayer pounds (not Euros) instead of borrowing. Governments are responsible only when they are answerable to the taxpayers. Once they have another source of capital, they generate a plutocratic political class.

    Iceland did it. It’s Ireland’s turn to repudiate the usurpation of democracy by the banktocracy.

    • StephenKenny

      6. Banks make a living by borrowing and lending. They would lend.

      It would work if most people could get behind it. Follow the Icelandic example, but people would have to give up a lot. The foreign holidays, the flash cars, the €250 haircuts, the swanky restaurants, but most important, the feeling of ‘success’, however misplaced it is. Reread the Pope’s Children for that “we’ve made it” feeling. I wonder.

  44. Land n Gold

    This explains the Western financial business strategy of breaking every law and then paying a fine much less than you earned.

    The Donkey

    Young Paddy bought a donkey from a farmer for £100.

    The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day…

    The next day he drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news. The Donkey has died.’

    Paddy replied, ‘Well then just give me my money back.’

    The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I’ve already spent it.’

    Paddy said, ‘OK, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’

    The farmer asked, ‘What are you going to do with him?’

    Paddy said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’

    The farmer said, ‘You can’t raffle a dead donkey!’

    Paddy said, ‘Sure I can. Watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

    A month later, the farmer met up with Paddy and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’

    Paddy said, ‘I raffled him off.

    I sold 500 tickets at two pounds a piece and made a profit of £898′

    The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’

    Paddy said, ‘Just the guy who won.
    So I gave him his two pounds back.’

    Paddy now works for Anglo Irish Bank!!

  45. Harper66

    Just read through all the posts I must admit I am concerned about peoples agendas being subtley worked into the debate.

    The only counter to this is the truth….

    1 – Irelands debt is unmanagable.Fact.

    2 – Irelands debt is unmanagable therefore Ireland will default.Fact.

    3 – We did not all party.We are not all to blame.Fact.What about the people who are recently made redundant? These people are forgotten men and women with children and mortages working 10,20,30 years and now we are talking about cutting their dole.These people are the real victims and they so demoralised and gripped by fear that they are in inertia.That is why only 70,000 took to the streets on saturday- how much does it cost to travel to dublin when your wondering how to put bread and milk on the table?(that plus the fact the ICTU banner is begining to repel genuine union members )

    4 – All European states are financially crippled. It seems to me one pot of money is being moved around to
    cover many liabilities. Like a game of musical chairs.
    This term PIIGS really gets my goat (to mix metaphors)It makes me roll my eyes to heaven when I see UK, German, American and French look down on other countries.As if their banking sectors and therefore economies are functional…

    5 – Everything said by Irish and European politicians are lies, bluff and double speak in an embarressing attempt to outsmart the markets. Rehn is no different to clowen and lenny just a different accent same but the same gombeen ideas.

    6 – Many posters on this page are dismissing Sinn Fein as fascist yet are hailing UKIP as relevant and vital listening.I do not wish to defend SF.

    I took some comfort from listening to National Forum and Richard Boyd Barrett on Frontline. I am keen to hear more and I may not agree with them but people are begining to mobilise, also I see a group called second republic are launching this saturday 2.30pm in the Gresham Hotel.

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