November 4, 2010

Brian Lenihan on economic forecasts

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Speaking on The Last Word this evening, Brian Lenihan said that projections made by economists are only valid for the time that they are made.

Here is an interview with me for BBC Hard Talk in May of this year, and all that was said then is still valid.


  1. stiofanc02

    Going, going it’s gone!!! The San Francisco Giants have won the world series! It was won on a three run homer in the 7th. David, we are in extra innings and you keep hitting home runs like these while the other team keep fouling out. Unfortunately the scoreboard lights seem to be malfunctioning and the managers and players, while at odds with each other,do not seem to be able to bring the game to a successful wind up or end. What will happen to us?
    Thanks again for the awesome last few weeks of insightful and genuinley helpful analysis. I would not have made it through the loss of my business in July 2008 without you guiding me over the past months, I mean it, thanks, your friend, Steve

  2. roc

    Forget future projections, Mr. Lenihan.

    If you really want to acquire the information that will best help you to plan for the future, I suggest you look to the past – at the assumptions and values and thinking that underlay the unfolding of our current difficulties.

    A word of advice – the more unpalatable you are finding this process, the more valuable will be the information you acquire.

    You can’t know the future. But you can know the past. And it is the key to evolving survival strategies – as it is for biological life, so it is for economic life.

    “The creature that learns is not the mythical amphisbaena of the ancients, with a head at each end and no concern with where it is going. It moves ahead from a known past into an unknown future and this future is not interchangeable with that past.”

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