Employ the hardest liquidator in town to do the negotiations — then move on and learn from this disaster
BACK in 2006, I first wrote about ‘ghost estates’ after driving back to Dublin from Westport. The description seemed to stick because it was simply putting a name on something that we were all aware of, as estate after estate sprouted up all over the country. It seemed logical to argue — even then — that these places would become the ghettos of the future. And so it has come to pass.
Yesterday, the head of NAMA, Brendan McDonagh, admitted that many of these developments would have to be knocked down in the years ahead. Extraordinary.
In fact, over the past couple of days, ghosts, ghouls and zombies have come to dominate the financial background noise. Last night, it was bulldozed ghost estates and the day before the ‘zombie’ bank Anglo nursing the sick company Quinn back to life. Where is it all going to end?
When I first saw George Romero’s 1968 classic ‘Night of the Living Dead’, I was transfixed. One of the lads on our road got it on VCR when we were about 12 or 13 and it gave me nightmares. The idea that dead zombies would eat the living freaked me out completely.
Worse still, that the dead zombies would band together to kill more living people and turn them into zombies seemed to me grotesquely believable. But of course it was just a movie, right? Clearly, the dead couldn’t eat up the living, no matter how sick they were?
When I see the zombie Anglo Irish Bank — clearly a dead company — taking over the sick but living Quinn Group, my boyhood nightmares come flooding back. When I see that it is taking over this company with my money, the nightmare is compounded. Here, we have the spectacle of the dead company nursing the sick company back to health. Bizarre.
The only reason we have this sick spectacle is because the State is choosing to keep Anglo open. This means your taxes will go into this black hole to reassure the creditors of the Quinn Group, which will allow Quinn to stay open and some day, maybe, Quinn will pay the money back to Anglo.
So again, the State has used the Irish people to bail out creditors. These creditors took a reckless gamble, whether they are bondholders in the Quinn Group or the bondholders and other creditors of Anglo. Why are we doing this?
Let us examine how the Irish Government managed to get things so back to front. The simple thing to do with Anglo would be to wait until the government guarantee lapses in October and then appoint a decent examiner who has 100 days to find a buyer.
If there is a good business there, someone will buy it. If it is rotten to the core, simply pay the depositors with what assets are there and see what is left for the other creditors.
No Anglo, no problem.
That is the simple tried and tested method that is used hundreds of times a day all over the capitalist world. There is a straight line from A to B.
All creditors — bar depositors — are investors one way or another and as investors they are big boys and realise that with every investment there comes a risk that unforeseen events might result in you losing your money.
So in the case of Anglo, it has liabilities of some €80bn, including €27bn of deposits. Let’s refer to the depositors as ‘trust creditors’ because they trusted the Financial Regulator who oversaw Anglo when they put their cash on deposits.
THESE people and companies have to be paid, no matter what. For the rest, it is a matter of where they come in the queue. The other creditors include the Irish Central Bank with €11bn and the ECB with €12bn. Then there are some €15bn in debt instruments, €9bn in other bank loans to Anglo and €2bn of the now infamous subordinated debts.
Simply put, all the non-depositors can get what the liquidator decides they get. They do a deal and lick their wounds and either they get back into the game or they don’t.
That’s the straight, simple way to deal with Anglo and, most importantly, it will cost the taxpayer nothing more at all.
When Brian Cowen says Anglo will cost €100bn to shut down, you know he is making it up because there are only maximum liabilities in Anglo of €80bn-odd. Likewise, when the Finance Minister plucks a figure like €30bn, where does his figure come from? This can all be done for zero cost to the taxpayer.
The spin that the markets would penalise us for operating the normal rules of capitalism is farcical.
Markets want to invest in the real potential of Ireland that is in our people, in our brains, in our education system. They want growth opportunities, not some fanatical debt-management agency, which insists on raising future taxes to pay for historical mistakes.
Now contrast this logical administrator route with the nonsense of the dead company nursing the sick company back to health.
Quinn owes Anglo a fortune, somewhere in the region of €2.6bn. If the Quinn Group goes into administration, as the new regulator wants, a new buyer wouldn’t touch these debts. They will have to be written off and therefore Anglo loses. So if we keep Anglo open, we, the taxpayers, lose.
In an effort to get the money back, the Anglo board has suggested that the banks inject around €700m more of our money into Quinn now to keep it afloat and prevent it being sold off in administration. This will bring up the company’s capital to the level required by the regulations.
So can you see what the problem is in all this? It is not Quinn, it is Anglo and the legacy of the mad lending of the Anglo management a few years ago. The reason Quinn is not the problem is because in administration the Quinn Group will merely be sold to someone else and will stay open, once its balance sheet is patched up.
If there are bits that are bankrupt, they will not be bought, the going concerns will be snapped up cheaply — as is always the way in a downturn.
The insurance business is apparently profitable, so this will be sold first. Then, the only internal problem for employees is whether the new buyer changes the culture of the firm.
For the workers, I can understand that Mr Quinn is a significant employer in the border region and the fear for the workers is that any new owner would reduce the presence in that region.
However, when seen from a national perspective, this is an entirely separate issue and one that can’t be solved cheaply by one ‘catch-all’ solution which puts us on the hook for Mr Quinn’s gamble on Anglo stock in 2007.
Shut down Anglo. Employ the hardest liquidator in the town to do the negotiations, move on and learn from this disaster. That’s the solution. That’s what adults do. The other choice is to remain children cowering in ghost estates, terrified by zombies. It’s your country, your call!
—-EARTHQUAKES & VOLCANOS—-
or, where do we go from here? Risk Control Part 2
It is a geophysical cycle, after a period of larger tectonic activities causing earthquakes, volcano activity follows not long after that. I was talking with a befriend scientist about that last night and told him that I wonder since a while about one aspect of the tectonics.
I always wondered about news that somehow came onto my Radar back in 1998 and starting with the rapid ‘explosion’ of the Larson ice shelf, and I followed such news ever since. An area of the size of Rhode Island collapsed from the arctic ice into the sea and left scientists puzzled as to the speed of the event.
By using satellite technology we learned much more about the rapid melting process. A photography colleague, James Balog, did some ground breaking research in that respect. He setup a bunch of cameras, equipped them with solar panels and some protection, to shoot one picture a day, and document the retreat of glaciers. A fantastic idea and a great job in deed! The extreme ice survey, the EIS Project, looks into these phenomenons and James in deed has come back with mind blowing documentations.
http://www.jamesbalog.com/pages/home.php
So we were talking about the volcano activity and so on, and i explained what my thoughts on that cycle are. Somehow, if you let aside gravitational aspects for a moment which of course play a important role, this planet can be understood as a closed system, with many cycles and systems involved that interact.
The rapid melting of ice is one of these cycles, and we know by now that we have a hand in it to a degree with our industrial activities of late.
If you imagine you would hold an exact model of earth, say the size of a football in your hands, with all these interrelated activities that form this planet, a mini earth for observational reasons and theoretical modeling so to speak, lets do a little experiment.
We know that our tectonic plates are somewhat floating and in constant movement. If now from one side of this model you quickly, in geophysical terms really in high speed compared to the tectonic movements, take away a certain amount of that ice from a specific location, this surely could have an impact, depending on the ice mass, on the weight distribution and dynamics involved overall and eventually influence the tectonic activities, hence trigger a greater earthquake probability. Like in chemistry or physics, ad to that some positive feedback loop aspects, a catalyst eventually, and often you find the inherent process dynamics accelerating exponentially.
We learned a great deal about these cycles in the last 5 years, and still have a lot to learn to better understand processes involved. We are witnessing for the first time immense geophysical changes and these are fantastic time for scientists, every data set collected gives us new ideas, better insights, at the same time opens new questions, it is truly fascinating and happening in realtime.
When James Balog came back to his 28 or something time lapse camera that he setup in different spots on the planet, hiking with his crew into the most inhospitable areas to collect the data and look at the photos, there was one scene that sticked vividly to my mind.
They approached a glacier valley and saw the camera setup with it’s solar panels in the distance, and the camera man got all excited, ‘Look…., look there,,,, the box is still standing! The camera is still there!’
Leaving the setup unattended for three months and then coming back to find it still standing surely was good reason for such excitement, but Balog’s attention was focussed onto something else, when he answered, ‘Yeah, I see the box, but where the fuck is the Glacier?’
The speed of the columbian glacier retreating in 12 weeks alone had been staggering and came to a great surprise to everyone in the scientific community. All this just happened around 2 years ago I think. You can see, we still need to learn a lot, of course, never before has man kind witnessed geophysical changes on that scope. It really makes me wish I would be a geophysicist, I really can understand the excitement and fascination involved.
Ok. by now you will eventually tell me in a kind or not so kind ways that I am posting here on DMcW site and what the Hell this would have to do with anything discussed here.
See, only three years ago or so, my interest in macro economy was triggered by the financial earthquake, the after shocks, and volcano eruptions, that shook this blue marble globe to it’s very core.
So I thought, here we are, we applied a system of trade and exchange of commodities and goods, applied rules, dynamics and processes, created a dynamic system that forms our financial and economical reality.
We teach the systems phenomenons and dynamics in Universities and educate academics, we do some research into this and once in a while, like Jospeh Stiglitz did with his work on Information Asymmetries, we gain important insights that enhance our understanding and eventually the development as well.
Our academics write in Journals, and publish their findings and their work, to be discussed and evaluated. Human condition applies, and some form of politics that also comes into play is less than beneficial for the process, as other forces often define what is accepted in academic circles and what not. Ok, this is not as bad anymore like it was just a few generations ago, we have come some way in that respect, but still these things are slowing down and often are obstacles on the way for bright new minds to establish their findings.
Today they use advanced computing technology and in the age of Tera Flops have plenty of CPU cycles at their disposal to calculate their models, but lets not forget, they are models, nothing more.
I wrote in my little article above on risk control, and why I think the IPCC is a good example of how we should start to enhance the process of understanding and exchange of information to allow for a better application of democratic base principles.
Secrecy, classified documents, and so on, are often just in place to serve the agenda of the people who were elected, and not the agenda of the people who elected them. This contributes to a political culture in ways that open doors for abuse of the system and I would hope it is a fair statement to say that we in Ireland have become somewhat specialists in that aspect.
This is a challenge for coming policy makers and academics to consider and a chance to for a new Ireland with a fairer basis, more democratic principles not on paper, but applied.
I might be wrong but to he best of my knowledge there is no interdisciplinary panel active that consults policy makers here, or is there?
Such a panel could be a start, and it should have a role and clear function, not a debate club only. I am not a supporter of the idea to abolish the Senat at all, rather I would change it’s position and enhance it’s role.
Policy makers need to get the best information they can. Academics need the freedom, the platform and the tools to be able to come to better conclusions, better models, and better ways to inform policy makers, and crucially, the public needs involvement in all these things as well.
International exchange with all countries, the ‘G192’, is another demand on such a system to work together to fix what is wrong and better what can be improved for the wellbeing of Nations and their people.
I said that the system is broke, and that applies not only to the financial world, it applies to social structures as well. Put it this way, this is much more than a financial and economical crisis, this is a confidence crisis on a large scale
We need a more transparent, more accountable system that allows progress and free exchange. All this is acknowledged since long and by many leading minds and it is not rocket science, rather common sense!
However, reforms are blocked on all levels, and one of the multifold reasons is the imbalance of power and wealth. Catastrophes of any kind are a chance at the same time, while devastating and causing suffering to a great many people, they are the chance to re consider and fix what is broken. The Asian crisis is a good example how it was avoided by the forces at play.
How can we achieve such changes?
It cannot come from the system within, it has been tried, many times, and to no success. It most definitely has to come from the people themselves, they have to demand this change!
The structure of IPCC has enabled us to speed up the learning process, enabled us to influence politics in ways that never was done before.
Just a thought.
Best
Georg
another Friendly reminder:
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/close-anglo-irish-bank-now–no-bank-guarantee-extension
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0416/1224268447164.html
Yes but, how much more notice to they give these guys? So NAMA will sue people who out their assets into their wife’s name? Well, good Luck with that!
What is that status of the way too long lasting investigation by now? It is understandable that people speak of cover ups taking into account that no informations are given to the public.
Again, the same old culture applies here.
Why can David Drumm a key player in this just leave the country? Why was Fitzpatrick arrested at all, other than as an orchestrated FF PR stunt.
It is all blatantly obvious and has not found it’s equivalent in public protest by any standards. Somehow, the public acts like a child in the christian brothers hands not long ago, abused and beaten into submission.
Political tokenism for the meeja to use to keep the bayoning mob at peace.
@1 Laughingbear,
Wouldn’t be too trustful of any data offered in support of the C02 earth climate change debate. Lots of it has been punctured as false science/fraudulent in recent years. There’s a compelling argument to show the whole green agenda is based on a huge corporate financial scam. Apparently the green police are descending on every house in the US demanding fees for green boilers to roof blankets you have to have. I’ve time though for some aspects of Richard Lovelock’s Gaia theory, he’s good on daisies:) As for the C02 stuff, the really interesting and scientifically upheld influence on climate change in recent years if the effect of sun spots on our climate, how chemical reactions are triggered in our atmosphere by cool magnetic solar storms, sun spots. I think the ice coverage this year in the arctic was pretty good. Yeah we need to respect nature, just like the Indians did. The Living planet Gaia will kick our ass if we don’t, so don’t litter:) Plus we need to embrace the unpredictable.
Hi Colm,
yeah, of course I read about that, however, I think the basic principle of global knowledge pooling still is a valid idea.
Laughing Bear
This is in response to your post on p2 which I can’t reply on for some technical reason. But I felt the urge to express an opinion.
It could well be that I’ve got the wrong end of the stick, but isn’t the significant issue here not the fact that the glacier retreat can be shown to have caused in some way the eruption but rather what caused the former (and what should we do about it)? Or are you implying that, being a closed system etc etc, this is nature’s infinitely subtle way of compensating for the ice loss by reducing the global temperature with volcanic dust? I don’t think you are saying the latter and while it would be reassuring that Gaia is looking after us that might be difficult to believe. And when I mentioned Lovelock the other day were you being tongue in cheek in your response? Or is it the fact that the camera was still standing? Hasn’t he got a mobile phone? I know you went on to make a point about global knowledge pooling but I can’t get onto the next page to check it out without losing the comment box here.
It’s easy to get confused here sometimes. Alright, at least you didn’t say ‘stochastic’ so I will refrain from saying ‘force majeure’, going forward…
I’m guessing the point is that a change in the rate of isostatic rebound could alter some balance that affects seismic/volcano activity. We know for instance that the entire island of Great Britain is still slowly tipping up in the north and down in the south from the removal of the ice mass at the start of the current interglacial. Same with the Great Lakes of Canada/US which are slowly draining towards their southern end. Not sure I buy it as a significant cause of volcanic activity which otherwise wouldn’t have happened though. The Icelandic volcanoes are just one spot on a two-thousand mile long rift which is mostly undersea. There’s also some evidence that the tidal forces from the moon passing overhead can trigger seismic releases. But it’s a stretch to say that any of these things is a definitive cause of any particular event.
But I think it’s a fair point that dynamical systems (and that included the economy as well as earthquakes) exhibit changes on many different scales that we can probably never hope to understand in a strictly cause-and-effect kind of way.
Well well well … what do _I_ know …
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0416/breaking49.htm
furrylugs _ thanks .I am looking forward to the next meeting.
The book _ the h bomb of economics is worth a reading eventhough it is in english, it sounds like trapatonni double thinking.
The Icelandic H_ Bomb on a bigger scale distroyed Dun Aengus and is foreboding the demise of the Euro.
My French PC is telling me everything I am writing is mis spelt….. what arogance . By the way the shops are normal on the Cote d Azur.
I was just noting that our host blogged in passing about Icelandic volcanoes twelve months back. Chalk another one up to DMcW’s prescience.
Back then the Brits were trying to get their money back. I’ve often wondered if we Irish should’ve made a simultaneous play to get our Icelandic womenfolk back. Problem is, we may not even have the menfolk to pair them up with anymore.
“Chalk another one up to DMcW’s prescience.”
Hmm.
Since he also has followers called Matthew, Mark, Luke & John, what are we dealing with here?
Goldman Sucks. Getting some tough questions. The last thing we expected since the disappearance of Eliot Spitzer was that the regulators might come down hard again on these Wall Street funny munny operations….
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-charged-with-fraud-over-paulson-cdo-trade-2010-04-16
(The Paulson involved is not Hank Paulson, but is a seperate company altogether).
US Based commentator, Michael Shedlock (MISH) is not taken in with Greece and the Bailout that is on and then off, and then on and then off the table.
The problem is that when you are in the PIGS category, you immediately get lined up with the rest of the chronic cases in public finance disorder. I would put Greece and Portugal in one half of the PIGSty – the bit with low savings rates, high fiscal borrowing, and a private sector that is underperforming. And I would put Spain and Ireland in another section, with property ponzi schemes gone wrong, funny bank loan accounting, unemployment, serious problems with cost competitiveness and all sorts of off balance sheet accounting tricks.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/debt-worries-shift-to-portugal-greece.html
(We should count ourselves lucky that many of these US commentators have a slight soft spot for Ireland, and possibly Britain also, based on heritage and cultural background).
Goldman Sachs in deep sh*t…………SEC has accused it of fraud linked to the credit crunch, as currently reported by Channel 4 news! Sachs’ shares down 15%
G, maybe just political tokenism for mid term elections.
If they pursue a criminal prosecution then it may have teeth.
One thing the Yanks have going over us … they WILL prosecute white collar crime. (Well, the bits they don’t like, at least).
Yes to a point…………………….when it is so overt it cannot be covered up – Enron etc but in the meantime enormous damage is done (societal, environmental) so I wouldn’t get too excited about the benevolence of their judicial system, it does after all remain quiet about two illegal wars (the most grevious crime in International law namely the crime of aggression, of which Iraq and Afghanistan are appropriate examples of same………)
http://wire.antiwar.com/2010/04/16/sec-accuses-goldman-sachs-of-civil-fraud-8/
Laughingbear.
Ref @1 page 2 – information bias in exchange systems I think your comment is spot on and utterly relevant.
Exchange systems, particularly between humans on a micro level in conducting of business and in particular exchange systems in relation to one on one inter relations in basic human contact is where the jailors who run the market system in a rigged fashion begin their sabotage and piracy.
I do agree too the dynamic systems of planet earth are inherent self re generational systems and operating according to hidden laws according to the models of both closed and open systems.
I do also agree the intelligensia are all fcuked up on open systems to the banishment of closed systems and it is purely politically motivated.
Academically speaking for an individual to have to take into consideration a cosmic balance between both closed and open systems in a dance of communication working both in conjunction with each other and spontaneously bursting forth and imploding as systems and breaking with the harmony is to much of a headache for most intelligensia and subsequently ignored to the peril of an understanding of ecosystems and econ systems and so it is why others have had to come along and fill in the massive intelligence gap these paid and hired hands choose to edit according to their own pettiness of vanities.
The night of the living dead..?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXMmgLukDcQ
Inside Inside Inside Infomation : this tells me that Hitler is in Der Bunker preparing a War Strategy to cecede from the Euro.
I have a point to make on the governement gaurentee.
Would have it made more sense on the night in question if the governement gaurenteed deposits and any bonds the bank issued in the future.
Would this not have acheived most of what the governement wante to do in terms of keeping finance available to the banks untils the situation was properly accesses.
As it was the Gov jumped us into a big black hole and we now find ourselves in the mess we are in
Interesting interview with Eamon Dunphy & Noam Chomsky from a while back, issues still pertinent
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28oMfm73Sso&feature=related
—- CAPE COD —-
or, no one asked the Sheriff
Chatham police, Lt. Michael Anderson’s jurisdiction is the area in Cape Cod that was in the news recently when David Drumm was contacted by Charlie Bird. Lt. Anderson said on the Cape Cod Times end of march that his department has not been contacted so far by any Irish officials in connection with the probe.
A year earlier a month after Anglo was nationalized, in late February 2009 the fraud squad became involved to investigate possible market abuse. In deed market abuse is the focus of this investigation involving the golden circle of 10 mystery investors, the golden circle, and Euro 8bn in deposits moved between Anglo and Irish Life & Permanent on the purpose to manipulate their books and appear solid to investors and markets.
To date, nothing, absolutely nothing has been published with reference to this investigation. Results = Zero.
Meanwhile properties and assets were written over to spouses, documents and evidence destroyed, hot shots, living in Luxemburg and Cape Cod and God knows where, and we are told to let the investigations run it’s course.
Sean Fitzpatrick’s arrest, two weeks before the historical vote in the dail was orchestrated to boost confidence in the Irish government’s handling of the case, nothing more, nothing less. It was all too blatantly obvious, and a clear indicator what this government thinks about the public, the way they treat them with their PR campaigns is more than only an indicator, it is evident.
Back in december 2008, the then Financial Regulator launched an investigation, into Anglo after Fitzpatrick resigned, who freely admitted to have taken steps over a number of years to hide loans from showing up in bank’s annual reports.
A fool who thinks that such accountancy fraud and tricks would be the exception and not the rule in our banking landscape. For good reasons Ireland was known to be the Financial Wild West.
Fitzpatrick admitted that for the eight years prior to 2007, he transferred his loans to another bank, preventing them from showing up in annual reports.
Today, Alan Dukes and Frank Daly run Anglo’s affairs.
Ever since the Fraud squad raided the offices in another PR stunt in 02/2009, an ongoing investigation into these matters is presented to the public longing for results and explanations.
We all are in somewhat the same time frame concerning the events of this global heist, and in the U.S. matters moved on, people are questioned in public hearings, arrests are made, and slowly but surely they are trying to clean up the mess.
In the latest chapter the SEC now accuses Goldman Sachs and one of it’s presidents, Fabrice Tourre of major fraud.
Meanwhile in dirty old town, the next PR stunts hit the public with a wave of apologies to the public, both Cowen and Lenihan were advised to perform this stunt for the good of FF public appearance, in a carefully chosen manner, admitting errors but of course without accountability and taking the consequences long overdue.
I said it before, and I say it again, in my view Cowen should be under oath in a witness stand instead of wearing out the front benches in the dail, but such is life in Ireland in April 2010 where Richie Boucher gets a 1,5 million pension top up, of course only honoring long standing contractual agreements, of course.
At the same time, no one sees fit to contact the Sheriffs department in Chatham concerning David Drumm.
A fool who thinks that the Heist is over, it is far from over, and they are still at it.
Ireland’s safety valve, emigrating it’s population have been opened wide.
The Late Late Show is in full swing, the band plays and Tubridy wants to talk positive, Gavin Duffy chats about eco tanning and makes his sales pitch to the public, how convenient, a super value voucher valued at 150 euros is handed to everyone in the audience, Gormely get’s applause and in Cape Cod someone closes the window blinds in full daylight.
Sickening, sickening to the bone….
Maybe Ryan Tubridy, Craig Doyle, Brendan O’Connor and Gerry Ryan can all get together and interview each other! (Matrix-esque)
RTE/Pravda is becoming a bit like this – intensifies (multiple agents) as the system comes under severe pressure and public unrest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KmFaUeKXbo
OO’er.
This is ominous but then again DMcW has flagged this up too.
When will all the doom casters be seen a prophets?
“”Economics 16/04/2010: The incoming train II
Posted by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
It is a good feeling to be ahead of the curve, especially when the curve is drawn by the likes of FT. Per today’s FT Deutschland report: the ECB is warning about a new crisis, a return of global imbalances in the coming years. In its monthly report the ECB warns: “At the current juncture, global imbalances continue to pose a key risk to global macroeconomic and financial stability . . . The stakes are high to prevent a disorderly adjustment in the future that would be costly to all economies.” Jurgen Stark is predicting that we have entered a new stage in the financial crisis – a sovereign debt crisis which means that “dealing with [the resulting severe macroeconomic imbalances] will represent one of the most daunting challenges for policymakers in modern history.”
My own take on the same topic was published here.
Another issue, also raised repeatedly on this blog, is discussed in Joachim Fels’ (Morgan Stanley) piece on FT Alphaville (here). Fels makes a claim that countries with a high degree of inflation aversion (Germany) might have an incentive to quit. Fels suggests three warning points for the crisis to develop:
* First, any signs of moral hazard emerging in the fiscal policies in the euro area
* Second, ECB failure to raise interest rates on time to cut inflationary pressures, and
* Third, the political pressure rising against the Euro in Germany.
Hell, by these metrics, we are already in the midst of the euro collapse by 2 out of three measures (first and third). Alas, the second metric is a bogus one. There is plenty of evidence to show that ECB has not been an ‘inflation hawk’, acting often pro-cyclically before and targeting the likes of PMIs instead of hard inflation and monetary parameters. So the real question here is: What’s the potential trigger for an exit?
Greece asking for the pledged money won’t do. If you think in terms of game theory, once that happens in earnest (and it might be today or over the weekend), Germany will face the following two options:
1. Grant request for assistance in full and thus pre-commit itself to the common currency at the sunken cost of an exit of ca 10-12 billion euro that it will commit to Greek deficits financing;
2. Exit now, saving the aforementioned money, but destroying its political capital within the EU.
The problem is that the net cost of (1) is much smaller than the net cost of (2). And this means there has to be another – non-Greek – trigger. Italy or Spain?”"
Our Utterly Butterly spreads are tracking just behind Greece. I think, in my humble opinion, that we should be studying something like this, just in case.
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=6&ved=0CBsQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aeaweb.org%2Faea%2Fconference%2Fprogram%2Fretrieve.php%3Fpdfid%3D246&rct=j&q=Sovereign+default+effects&ei=6aDJS7O9K4n-0gSg18GuCA&usg=AFQjCNFHrJNokDt1xTLHYT1cF7GaWz2gVw
Sorry about the huge link. I must get at this Bitly thingy.
This is way beyond me but David might be able to apply “The Common Man” to some of the pretty pictures??
http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=10&ved=0CCkQFjAJ&url=https%3A%2F%2Feditorialexpress.com%2Fcgi-bin%2Fconference%2Fdownload.cgi%3Fdb_name%3DNASM2009%26paper_id%3D288%26file_type%3Dslides&rct=j&q=Sovereign+default+effects&ei=6aDJS7O9K4n-0gSg18GuCA&usg=AFQjCNHW6sL-tG1L1VHrCbeOcHr8WRJNqA
plume des cendres – I am stranded out here till next thurs and dont know if my private vhi travel insurance will cover me for this act of god- can anyone advice me
I don’t think you can claim, John, See:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/apr/15/iceland-volcano-travel-insurance
This ash cloud could hang about for weeks, so consider returning by train/ferry. Eurostar booked solid for several days already. Other stars let you down this time. Good luck.
Many would disagree but Krugman may have a point worth considering here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/16/opinion/16krugman.html?src=me&ref=general
Malcolm – Thanks . I will consider your wisdom . All trains are solid booked too until tues. Aer Lingus have changed my ticket free of charge for thurs so I owe them a lot of admiration in a time of honour.
Until then only the sun is above me and the sea beside me.I think I might stay .Banks control Time and this might be My Time to soak it up.
Thanks Again.
We’re part of the mission to great a new world order, phone calls were made on the banks and the government behaves, sooner or later the people and the government will enter into conflict, just a slow burner, but think it inevitable.
Invisible Empire – A New World Order Defined
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NO24XmP1c5E&feature=player_embedded#!
Endgame
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-CrNlilZho
Interesting way how to mindmap our debates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ&feature=related
Last week, Michael Casey, former Central Bank chief economist and IMF board member, wrote: “In the middle of the worst depression ever experienced, we are inflicting upon ourselves five deflationary budgets and at least three restrictive monetary policies . . . it does not appear as if the Government even considered the implications of piling deflation upon deflation . . . Let us hope and pray that we have not deflated ourselves into the ground to satisfy Brussels mandarins, financial markets and Irish bankers.”
Great stuff here from Gene Kerrigan:
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-elite-wont-save-us-just-themselves-2142495.html
Reading the article makes me think that only a world war 2 Katyn forest style massacre/ cull of Irelands “Insiders|” golden circle of bankers, developers and politicians, would radically change anything on this island.
—-16 Parnell Square, Dublin—-
16 is the number, or a final Insult to the public of Ireland!
A second part on my thoughts concerning the investigative powers in Ireland was triggered this Sunday by an article in the Irish Independent, let aside the fact that concerning David Drumm, the Sheriffs department in Chatham was not contacted by any Irish officials so far.
It emerged that the director of corporate enforcement, Paul Appleby, has given us a better idea about our governments commitment when he told the public about the resources at work on this case.
14 months have passed and nothing happened. Well, of course not according to our government who emphasize their full commitment to go after the folks who were instrumental in this biggest heist in known history.
The Director informed us that one of their tasks is to analyze 2,000.000 documents.
I think I leave this number standing here without making any further comments, the reader can make up his own mind on the resource to workload ratio that is implicated here so vividly.
Such is the urgency and resources at play in a 14 month lasting investigation.
Why the OCDE did not secure something like a staff of 250 instead of 16 is beyond my comprehension, then again it is not, it is just in line with the political culture that dominates this country since decades.
One could call this a ridiculous undertaking to start with, I certainly would call it this way, hence I question the seriousness of the attempts in the first place, actually, I think we have to go a step further here and call this undertaking scandalous!
I predict that any findings will be made available in the dail short before the summer recess, like vote on the NAMA legislation was also a well timed event, short before the Easter recess.
The public is fooled again, with statements such as ‘the complexity of the case’ and other apologetic phrases that are fired upon us to justify the state of investigations and none existing results so far, 14 months later!
Personally, I have that sick feeling in my stomach when I read ‘ according to senior government officials’, well for crying out loud, when will we start to put a face to the business, instead of hiding behind a desk and a function.
Lenihan did not hesitate to change the laws in this country to serve NAMA with special powers, but no change in Law has come forward to enable a swift and thorough investigation in these matters, to bring to justice the forces at play, to have people like Cowen enter a witness stand in a publicly broadcasted hearing.
The state of Irish law concerning white collar crime is a joke, and deliberately designed to open wide the doors to be able to build the financial Wild West. We do not have legal protection for whistle blowers, and as far as I know, I stand to be corrected, we are the only country in Europe that does not have this!
The ODCE has a miniature staff approved, and recruitments are happening through the public appointments service and their budget stands at Euro 5,5 mio per annum. How is that for a government who’s national and international reputation has been damaged beyond repair.
They dump this enormous task into a understaffed and under equipped body that would not even succeed to catch up with the problems confronted with due to the new economical realities in this country, let aside, being appointed to these investigations.
‘16 is the number’ is the sub title of this text here, and 16 out of 47 is the staff appointed to the investigations, it is likely that this number was even lower in the 14 months before, of one reads between the lines.
… ’With the ODCE coming under mounting political pressure to complete its report, the office has allocated 16 of its 47 staff to the investigation… These include garda detectives and staff with accounting, administrative, technology and legal expertise. Staff members at the ODCE, in conjunction with the Garda Bureau of Fraud Investigation are working their way through more than two million documents, seized during the investigation into Anglo’ …
Personally I do not call this an investigation, I call this a smoke screen, a cover up and an Insult! Period.
Folks, this is my last article style contribution to David’s site here, I said what I have to say.
Last but not least, as an artist, and somewhat leaned to Peter Handke’s play from 1966, I now choose to offend the audience and Irish public, on purpose!
I have no more time for a procrastinating Irish public that is inconsiderate, trapped in a self chosen political submission and state of lethargy. You, the public, the people of Ireland are the only sovereign in this country and not the crooks in politics and business who ruined Ireland for generations to come. Hence, it is only logical to put the blame on YOU the public, who chose to stay within your tribal psychology refusing to look a the bigger picture.
It is your god damn ridiculous mindset and projections of being Irish, to support your idea of an identity that goes beyond Guiness and Riverdance and that counts for nothing more than to dig up any possible sources to contribute Irish heritage to Barack Obama. Hell, if your dog can fart Irish or you are able to piss a shamrock in the snow, you are likely to be granted support by udaras na gaeltacht, so you may as well stick with this mindset and find yourself digging potatoes again, while people like Cowen and Rody Malloy, and Richie Boucher retire with millions of euros in their accounts around the world and on top cash in retirement sums per annum that represent what you may make in 10 years of working.
You, the public, make me despair, you chose to stay silent and allow to be misrepresented by NAMA, The Unions, and the Politicians in power. You, the public allow these events to happen, events that ruin this country and the youth of this country for generations. Your silence and denial, your submissiveness and GAA style thinking enables the forces at play to continue what they are doing since decades.
You, the public are responsible for the New Ireland that will emerge from the devastation these people left behind. You are able to mobilize forces for a disgusting Pro Life campaign disrespecting women humans rights in this country, or mobilize thousands of people in support for a bunch of whackjobs who declare it their rural way of life to kill stags in medieval and cruel ways, but you fail to mobilize the public when it comes to get rid of the crooks, clean up the mess and demand and build an Ireland where your own sons and daughters want to live and raise their children, you rather stay in your seats, watch the Late Late show and wave your children goodbye. You are on the streets when a french dude shoots a hand goal against Ireland, closing the doors for the next world cup, but you fail to stand up for your own when it comes to the most important time of change in this country.
You, the public, you disgust me!
Best
Georg
I can’t explain what’s wrong with Irish people laughingbear.
I have learned an enormous amount about the majority of my fellow Irish people over the last 18months or so, and I don’t like what I’ve learned.
The people on this site being the exception.
Yes I knew there were many gombeen men about for many years, I just didn’t have a term for them. Yes I knew “who you are” meant more than “what you are” when it came to getting work. I knew some politicians lined their own pockets for planning favours. Yes I learned that bankers were not to be trusted and were quick to screw money from whoever whenever
I didn’t realise the divide between the elite/ruling class/insiders. I didn’t even realise we had a ruling class / elites / insiders
I didn’t realise Irish people where subjected to propaganda on a constant basis
I could never have imagined the scale of the selfishness, stupidity, incompetency and corruption the politicians and banksters.
I could never have imagined the careless response from the majority of the Irish public to the many treasonous acts inflicted on the country
Whenever I talk to people back in Ireland about what’s going on, they just don’t want to listen. But I talk anyway. Someday the might pay attention. Hopefully it will be before Lenihan and Cowen renew the bank guarantee
You have done a great job unearthing information, I can understand your frustrations.
Painful introspection.
I spent some time tonight with a wonderful man who has spent his life as a card carrying member of the Communist Party. And he was well up there in his day.
Based on Eamon Gilmours performance yesterday, he would put particulars aside and join in a Social Democracy Party.
Change is coming.
Last and not friendly reminder
http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/close-anglo-irish-bank-now–no-bank-guarantee-extension
Green Shoot Polyanas Must Be Bananas:)
http://colmbrazel.wordpress.com/2010/04/18/shoot-green-polyanas/
Georg,
Links as promised;
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:XUkfCbOCR7oJ:www.taoiseach.gov.ie/attached_files/Pdf%2520files/Constitution%2520of%2520Ireland.pdf+article+45+irish+constitution&hl=en&gl=ie&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESgn_InEHqqYOc4zvMkk42r8q5x8_djWdqtPj7JGKyf4D3du_HUiIisDo06Be_8bwlQaJgAZNrTVoIbZ_5W47-XdpzAkrxRtBxK7VIxrIaE0aHy9-9gQoDoLDrVjrSdX3BzTAdYC&sig=AHIEtbSnuEREVoCQinvOg6Kl6IE6C5UN3A
Geshundeit.
There man says this!
He (Gordon Brown) threatened to block multimillion-pound bonus payouts if the firm (Goldman Sachs) is found guilty of wrongdoing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/18/gordon-brown-angela-merkel-goldman-sachs
Our man says this!!
‘Social Protection’ Minister Eamon O’Cuiv has asked the chief of executive of Bank of Ireland to hand back a €1.5 million pension top-up. Mr O Cuiv said the Government did not have the legal power to force the chief Executvie, Richie Boucher, to give back the ‘award’.
F********************************ERS!!
Tell me WHY when we pumped taxpayers money in it wasn’t done with strings attached, if I open a Bord Gas account I have to agree terms and conditions and put down a €200 deposit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A picture is worth a thousand words
Ireland’s Ghost Estates:
http://irishlightandcolour.com/Landscape-ghost-estates.php
Cosgrave Developments have started work in Dun Laoghaire Golf course. Is this not madness? They are also shoving other doomed properties into Nama. Where will the profits from this Golf Course go? Into Nama???? Doubt it.