February 28, 2010

It took Europe to rein in Nama

Posted in Banks · 273 comments ·
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Have you heard of Neelie Kroes? Last November, this column said that the European Commission would save us from the crazy excesses of our politicians – and it delivered last Friday.

We should get down on bended knees, because the commission worries more about your money than the Irish politicians you voted for.

Last Friday, the commission – with Joaquin Almunia now holding the competition brief – told this reckless, incompetent government, which has been throwing around billions of our money as if it were confetti, to get a grip. The commission has said the valuations the government is putting on land for Nama are too generous to the banks.

Despite this, the spin put out from Merrion Street is that the commission was happy with Nama. This is not the case.

Closer reading of the press release suggests there is considerable unease in the European Commission about our latest ill-advised adventure. Of course, the mainstream media swallowed the government’s spin hook, line and sinker. No surprise there.

However, the press release, designed to obscure, not inform, is quite different. Hidden in the Department of Finance’s press release, there is a crucial line that states: ‘‘Within the valuation methodology, a higher remuneration risk margin and higher enforcement costs will be applied.”

As a result: ‘‘It is not the minister’s intention to perform another top-down aggregate estimate of the potential haircut that the institutions will face.”

This means, in plain English, that the commission believes the government is trying to shaft us, the taxpayers, with its optimistic valuations. It has told the government that there is no way the commission will allow it to stick to its original 30 per cent discount.

You might remember that, originally, the government said that it would apply a 30 per cent discount to the property loans Nama was supposed to buy off the banks.

The commission has obviously told it to snap out of it. The commission maintains that the valuations will have to come down significantly from the minister’s original estimates.

This clearly means that Nama will not make a profit – which was the silly spin of last year. It also means that, unless there is another inflated property bubble, the taxpayer will be left holding fields in Mullingar that no one wants.

The meaning of the minister saying he will no longer give ‘‘another top-down aggregate estimate’’ is that each loan will now be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, as opposed to the government’s original blanket discount approach. This means there will be enormous variations in every bit of property that goes into Nama.

Logistically, we can already see how this Nama is going to grow to be a bureaucratic monster.

On the upside, the commission’s intervention could be good news for taxpayers. But why did the commission side with the taxpayers while the government sided with the banks? Why would the remote commission side with ‘outsiders’, while elected politicians side with the ‘insiders’? What happened to the assumption that the government acts with the best interests of the people at heart?

The commission not only believes the government is living in cloud cuckoo land, but must be perplexed at the behaviour of ministers who tried to railroad through valuations which would impoverish the taxpayer, and enrich the banks and their investors. This stance of our politicians is quite extraordinary, and the opaque language of the press release is depressingly revealing.

Rather than speak plainly about this huge financial gamble, our government – possibly because it knows Nama is a mistake – tries to obscure the truth and muddle through. Pathetic really.

Why did the commission act to constrain the government? Maybe the commission saw the news from Athlone last week that development land valued at €31million in the boom is now worth only €600,000.Could it be that this 98 per cent fall in the price of development land made the commission think again about the 30 per cent discount that the government was trying to get away with?

The commission – unlike Brian Lenihan – concluded what the dogs on the street know to be true: much Irish land is almost worthless now. To force the Irish taxpayer to pay the difference between today’s price and the boom price would bankrupt the place. It also saw that what the Department of Finance was trying to do with the 30 per cent discount was keep the wretched Irish banks open by giving them an unfair ‘dig-out’ – or, in EU parlance, state aid.

So we know why the commission acted as it did, but why has the government acted against the interest of the taxpayer? The Brian Lenihan who discussed banking issues with me never struck me as someone who would put the banks’ interests ahead of the taxpayers’. In fact, the rhetoric suggests the opposite, but the reality is that he has put the banks before the people.

Why?

He is advised by people who, from the beginning, wanted a certain outcome, irrespective of the facts. The people who came up with Nama had the answer they wanted before they asked the questions. They wanted to keep the banks as private entities at all costs.

The banks are required to hold a certain minimum amount of capital. If a bank is trading recklessly without sufficient capital, someone has to inject capital. But without investors, the government has to nationalise. Of course, for ideological reasons, Lenihan and his gang wanted to avoid nationalisation.

The other night, as I was doing sums with my seven-year-old son, I thought of an easy way to explain the government’s dilemma which the commission has seen through. We were doing additions and takeaways at the kitchen table. We lined up rugby players to visualise the sum and make it easier.

Using the sin bin analogy, which kids love, the sum is how many Irish rugby players would be left from seven if five were sin-binned. The answer is two rugby players.

Let’s turn it around and say then if seven rugby players minus five rugby players is two, what is five rugby players plus two rugby players? Answer: seven.

OK, so what’s two plus five? Wow, it’s seven. So if I have seven players and I want to be left with two players, what do I take away? Answer: five. So if I want to be left with two – not one or nil – and I start with seven? The answer has to be five.

Now think of Nama. Lenihan started with €70 billion-odd of bad developer loans. He needed to have capital of €20 billion (some of which he had in the pension fund), so the value of the bad loans couldn’t be lower than €50 billion odd.

So the clever people behind Nama knew the answer to the question before they asked it. The discount had to be 30 per cent, not because that’s what the land was worth, but because anything lower than that risked having to nationalise the banks.

This is why they have tried to rip off the taxpayer, when we know that the value of land has fallen by much, much more than that. This is why they keep blustering and spoofing, and this is why the commission called their bluff.

If only they had been up-front at the beginning, they would have saved us all this angst. They could have told us that Nama was never about land, but was always about protecting the banks – which the government erroneously thinks are viable only with the present ownership structure.

This would have explained their irrational and, at times, tragicomic obfuscation. But then again, could it be that maybe being this straight-up is just not in their nature?


  1. wills

    What is really going on is keeping hidden the truth of ‘debt creation’.

    It must be kept in a state of mystery at all costs to the elites.

    Or at least up until the elites replaces the paper money scam with an all together new monetary system such as contactless money and re invent the chains upon which the serf are maintained in debt bondage.

  2. @ BrianMc

    “5 Things the Individual Can do to Stop NAMA:”

    1. Become well informed
    2. Lobby when you can
    3,4,5 Same as 1 and 2

    ““5 Things the Collective Can do to Stop NAMA:”

    1. Persuade someone like Michael Moore to do an expose, fly-on-the- wall documentary similar to Enron documentary, ‘Enron Smartest guys in the room’

    2. Challenge NAMA in the courts under Lisbon Treaty legislation on competition and protection of the taxpayer, also article 45 of our constitution

    3. Focus on the relationships, meetings, minutes of, times of, personnel involved in, connections between senior bankers and government ministers over the past five years in a banking inquiry.

    In particular, ask Mr Cowen to account for his contribution to the view that Anglo Irish Bank an €11 billion black hole for taxpayers should be made part of the bank guarantee. Weigh up how partisan FF are to bankers or to taxpayers?

    4. Examine the relationships between government ministers and so-called leading property developers over the past five years.

    5. Consider a topological study of the effect of NAMA on economic life in Ireland as it is rolled out with particular emphasis on sectors of economic life that claim to suffer because of NAMA.

    6. Generate an analysis of the cost of NAMA over time to the Irish taxpayer. That includes the cost of servicing debt, debt rising to in excess of €150 billion over the next two years.

    7. Do a complete audit of the workings of NAMA – sorry, top secret, you can’t go there, they won’t let that out.

    8. Expose the lie that NAMA will get credit going in our economy

    9. OK, take one of the 10 largest toxic loans and ask for a write up of the methodology used to rewire/transfer the toxic loan to the taxpayer – oops top secret again.

    10 Look at its evaluation LTEV methodology. Look at the haircut given to individual toxic loan accounts and ask why one evaluation differs to another?

    9. Ok, ask for a short excel sheet on how the Irish taxpayer will make a profit from NAMA, oops you won’t get that either.

    10. OK, ask how NAMA is going to launder the 200 hotel properties with excess of 15000 hotel rooms in Ireland, that need to be taken out of the market. Or same for ghost estates etc? We’re all watching that!

    11 How will ongoing and future losses be managed by NAMA in regard to assets eg K Club losses held now by us taxpayers?

    12 What is NAMA’s plan to offload its commercial and property portfolio held against toxic debt of errant bankers/developers/politicians, oops, don’t think you’ll get that either!

    Sorry, its hard to answer your question. Pick five of the above q’s for starters and add your own, tons of questions need to be asked!

    Unfortunately, a mixture of propaganda and lies and secrecy make it difficult to stop NAMA.

    But you can watch it crumble and fail from within or witness slowly blindfolds coming off as it slowly exacts its punishment of our economy.

    11. You get to see how its working maybe by the end of March, April 1, when the first lot of toxic loans get transferred over to the taxpayer.

    Then do the math, a better picture of how your taxes are being siphoned off to banks will emerge. Basically, the whole thing is a complete mess.

    If you gain reasonable information you think useful in regard to the above or related to it, let us know.

    NAMA keeps us all in the dark! The more light you can shine on it the better!

    In all of the above, keep scientific, objectivity to the fore. Its also essential to be of good heart and cheer.

  3. Tim

    Folks, regarding the “Your Country, Your Call” matter I posted about recently, I sent this message to Joan Burton today at 10:38am (while talking to you, Furrylugs):

    “@joanburtontd Have you seen this AIB involvement in #YCYC ? http://bit.ly/9qs6MB and this: http://bit.ly/aYK0Dw

    I have finally received this reply at 7:45pm:

    “@tnteacherTim I know nothing about it. I understand it is being dealt with by the President with some Govt support”

    ….??? !!!???, right?

    So, I have responded with:

    “@joanburtontd Please read links; you might want to question AIB involvement.” at 7:47pm.

    Let’s see where this goes…….

    • Heh Heh Heh.
      Maith an Fear.

    • G

      Absolutely outstanding post, exposing this is one of the best things I have seen on this website, thank you for the evidence which I can bring to the attention of those who believed in the ‘single idea’ theory for turning this country around.

      It’s a bit like that programme ‘the secret millionaire’ which I find an affront to honest, hard working people. Instead of some rich person dropping parachute like into the ‘disadvantaged’ if we worked towards building an equtiable, fair, and better resourced society at all levels we would have no need for such absurd competitions.

      Indeed, if we had done the basics, had a parliament that functioned and did the work it is paid to do, a cabinet with a conscience, a regulator and corpporate enforcer closely watching the banks and not swallowed the neoliberal pill then we wouldn’t be in half the mess.

      I still think it a HIGHLY CYNICAL EXERCISE by people who know better but chose to act in this way……all part of the same problem.

      Scrap the presidency, open up the Aras for the homeless or those who suffer domestic abuse………

      Have the abused from the industrial schools driven around in Ministerial cars…….let Ministers take the bus, walk or cycle! Close down the ‘Bishop’s Palaces’ and open the vaults of the Vatican Bank to the poorest of the poor, sell off the priceless artwork and atone for the wrongs, enough apologies, I need to see ACTIONS……………

    • liam

      Tim, thanks for alerting us to this. I am very reluctant to engage in any debate about the motivations of the people involved, as we can only speculate as to what is going on. There is a risk of throwing out all such initiative, even the good ones because of questions over motivation, which are ultimately irrelevant anyway.

      A scheme like this is something that could be highly valuable, however as implemented, it possesses a number of basic failings, the primary of which relates to YCYC insistence on ownership of IPR. I repeat below my latest and final comment on the analysis presented above:

      Padraig,

      I don’t want to come across as being overly negative about YCYC, but I think some basic errors have been made in the whole approach to this thing.

      I appreciate the concept of promoting ideas of those who have not got the resources or expertise to seem them come to fruition, but it looks like the wrong model has been used. Fundamentally, it is I think a mistake to not have any respect at all for the IPR of potential contributors. If you are looking for serious ideas that have a chance of success, it seems natural to me to include the inventors, rather than strip them of any right to further participation once you have identified a scheme with some chance of success. YCYC is using a model better suited to competitions for big ticket items like a house or a car, and I just don’t see how this will attract the level of quality and seriousness YCYC aspires to, that the country deserves and that Irish people are certainly capable of delivering.

  4. Looking at Tim’s post about Anglo Irish, can someone please call a spade a spade, take a hurling stick, or better a couple of tenthousand hurling sticks and march onto department of finance, Anglo irish, AIB, BOI etc and have a closer look in their accounts?

    I mean, come on…. it is so blatantly obvious, then again, here is a gentle reminder of something which may be easily overlooked in that media white wash we all are exposed to daily.

    ANALYSTS ESTIMATE ____<– fill in ridiculous amounts of cash pushing the next generations into debt slavery !

    ANALYSTS?
    ESTIMATE?

    Ok, let's take a flash light for a second. First of all, WHO the fuck are these analysts, other than state employed or state payed so called experts.

    The bottom line is, a couple of Gestapo accountants from hell, having signed multiple NDA's, GAG ORDERS, Confidentiality clauses, being threatened with Hell if they brake it.

    So here we are 20 months into that crisis, and still, except an elite insider circle, NO ONE has the exact figures that are buried in some secret and hidden files, make no mistake, THESE FILES EXIST!

    So 20 months later our very minister for finance still is CLUELESS when it comes to the real damage, and plays the monkey for the banks, coming out with every new adjusted damages they face, hence needing ever so more money from you and I and our children to what….

    Yes, please ask yourself, exactly for what is this money used Folks?

    What happened with the already payed 7,000 x 7,000.000 Million Euro to date?…. GO FIGURE! Were we given any information on that? NO!

    The bottom line is darn simple:

    The banks are covering up the truth since 20 months and our politicians FAILED to stop them doing it, in opposite, they play along and put up smoke screens to divert from the truth themselves.

    ESTIMATES?

    Why the Hell estimates at all I ask.

    Because the balance account sheets of these banks are already, lets take a proper term here, adjusted.

    Adjusted my arse, they are falsifications, faked documents, stamped with EXPERT seals, hired by the bank and the government to make them look acceptable.

    Where the Hell is ONLY ONE substantial whistle blower, that has the consciousness and ethic to make a few copies of relevant documents hidden, copy some files, make some photos, get some undeniable evidence in only banks in question AND COME FORWARD for crying out loud. Is there not a single person on these ranks that wants to do what is RIGHT????

    All we need is one solid case to make a injunction against NAMA. One solid case, and quick.

    I CALL ON ALL BANK EMPLOYEES IN RELEVANT POSITIONS AND WITH RELEVANT AND UNDENIABLE EVIDENCE TO COME FORWARD AND BRAKE THEIR NON DISCLOSURE AGREEMENT!

    • Deco

      Anglo = money pit. The developers had their money on deposit in one company account and the debts in another in the banks. And the biggest gamblers were in Anglo.

      The same speculators who are telling us that they are bankrupt, and they love going to charity events, and that they wear the green jersey with pride….the same scoundrels have their money moved to Caymans, etc….but the Debt stays at home.

      And the maFFia are keeping the entire thing under wraps.

      If Anglo went bankrupt, then all the documentation concerning what was going on in Anglo would go into the public domain. And the people who realise that these rogues were not bankrupt. David Drumm, ex-CEO of Anglo living in a mansion in New England. Quinlan living in Switzerland. What about the solicitors that are on the run.

      The people of this country need to get out of the Bread and Circuses routine of filling their empty heads with pointless minutae and superficial mush – and see what see what is going happening in this country.

      If the people don’t wake up, then get everything you’ve got and get out before it crashes in a heap.

  5. Tim

    Folks, I just found out that Dáil Éireann goes all “electronic” with fob-key-entry from tomorrow. 10s of thousands of euro spent on something like this system, at a time like this?

    1) Why is an expensive electronic entry *security* system required for a premises already secured by 24hr Garda Siochana protection?

    2) How much, exactly, was spent on this?

    3) Who made the decision to do it?

    4) Who succeeded in winning the tender and who are they connected to that pulled the strings?

    • Oh, that is an easy one….

      Last year some ministers in Germany were asked on a Prime Time equivalent show…. why they see a need to have bullet prove glass installed in all ministerial cars….

      It is nothing but pure FEAR Tim, the well deserved paranoia of an insider circle that know exactly what is going on and continue to strengthen their power and bring a totalitarian bureaucracy upon us.

    • wills

      Tim,

      Try this on for size …….

      100,000 euros for two toilets in leinster house.

      1,000,000 for canteen renovations.

      80,000 for lighten fixtures.

      Figures revealed Evening Herald tonight.

      • G

        Irish Times 2009

        Choc horror as Dail sweet shop costs over €1 million

        SOME DÁIL members were choking on their choccies when the new sweetie shop opened recently at parliament’s Kildare Street entrance: just how much did the impressive structure cost?

        The new “An Siopa” was designed by hotshot architects Bucholz McEvoy to mirror the classy entrance pavilion next door for which they won an award.

        They also designed the entrance huts on the Merrion Square side as part of an overall commission from the OPW. All very well, but Olivia Mitchell TD, for one, wondered at the cost of such a glorious chocolate box, in light of the fact that it took about three years to build.

        “It is effectively a lean-to on a clear site so it is hard to know how it could take so long, especially since the OPW has experience in this area,” she says. “It became a sort of joke in Leinster House, we felt the Taj Mahal took less time to build.”
        Having asked a question in the Dáil, she was told that while the final accounts had not been completed, it was reckoned that the new building cost €800,000 excluding VAT and internal fittings.

        Total cost then is like to be over €1 million.
        The Siopa is roughly 40sq m (431sq ft) – the size of many a household extension. The latest Bruce Shaw Handbook says that shops are costing around €1,050-€1,600 to build per sq m.

        Really smart commercial buildings can cost up to €6,000 per sq m, according to an industry source. The Siopa is coming in at around €20,000 per sq m, which may not surprise many a homeowner whose extension ended up costing way over the builders and architects estimates.

        No doubt the costs were eaten up by the impressive building materials, conservation studies and cutting-edge technology: and the fridges deemed necessary to keep chocolate from melting what with all that glass.

        For really hot days, the building has sun visors, window defrosters and adjustable air nozzles.

        As chocoholics know, you just can’t put a price on well preserved confectionery.

        Maybe Cowen should become known as Willy Wonka!!

        • Deco

          Every Circus needs a Ice Cream, Candy Floss stand. Just to keep all the kids happy before they get inot the big tent and start the pantomine. And the Kildare Street Circus should not be any different.

          But ‘An Siopa’ is just taking things way too far……

  6. Mark

    Please stop using the word “elite” to describe the buffoons, bogmen & pissboys who populate Leinster House, the banks, the legal system etc.
    According to the Oxford English Dictionary, “elite” means:
    “A group of people regarded as the best in a particular society or organization”.

    There is nothing in this definition that applies to any of the current crop of morons, at least insofar as it refers to “society”.
    Please stop inadvertently elevating these morally bankrupt scrapings-from-the-bottom-of-the-gene-pool. They are nothing but a bunch of putrid leeches who make Robert Mugabe look like Mother Teresa

    • Agreed!

      See, I am brainwashed too… LOL

    • Damn good correction. Give that man a cigar.
      How does Protozoa sound??

    • wills

      THe term ‘elites’ can be used as a term of reference regarding special interests.

      And bottom line is, these gombeens have been placed in hubs of power by hook or crook or fate.

    • G

      It is only one interpretation of the term, which is actually quite a useful one.

      Elite – a group of persons exercising the major share of authority or influence within a larger group.

      or

      Power Elite – A power elite, in political and sociological theory, is a small group of people who control a disproportionate amount of wealth, privilege, and access to decision-making of global consequence. The term was coined by Charles Wright Mills in his 1956 book, The Power Elite, which describes the relationship between individuals at the pinnacles of political, military, and economic institutions, noting that these people share a common world view.

      The power elite is described as consisting of members of the corporate community, academia, politicians, media editors, military service personnel, and high-profile journalists.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_elite

  7. Tim

    For anyone here in Galway:

    From David, just now:

    “I am speaking in Galway wed night. all welcome. details below”

    http://www.socs.nuigalway.ie/calendar/event/5376/62984/03/2010/

    • Not much good to someone in the Shehy Mountains.
      When the man hitting Killarney to chew the fat with The Bloods?

      • Tim

        Good question; I will put it.

      • Tull McAdoo

        I use to give talk’s in the “Shehy Mountains” when I was young, and was sent there to mind sheep, a bit like St. Patrick ,I would have to say. I use to practice my Political oratory, on the oft chance that the powers at be might decide to call me, one day , to the great Tammany Hall above in the City. ( it’s the one next to wille wonkas million euro chocolate shop).
        My favourite was when I explained to the sheep, how politics in Ireland worked by divine right. I took from St. Paddy, and used the shamrock, with its three leaves, FF, FG, and ILP. Aahh them was the good old days when a shamrock said it all……..

        • I took up the mantle Tull.
          Dolly was asking for you just the other day, as it goes.
          She moved over to graze Douse and Douchaill. The old knees aren’t what they used to be.
          F

  8. wills

    Posters.

    Prudential buy AIG’s interests in Asia for 21 billion.

    Two of Uk’s mobile companies merge and challenge o2.

    HSBC massive end year profits with huge profits from latin america, china and asia.

    My point…….

    UK business interests grow and expand and reap the benefits of the credit crunch.

    UK are working quietly away, the money masters of the world buying up assets for pennies on the dollar.

  9. Ruairí

    Folks,

    nothing to do with this article but some excellent personal finance musings, for our children (future lead citizens) and adults (current delinquent caretakers): -

    http://www.wisebread.com/good-debt-bad-debt

    And linking from there: -
    http://www.freemoneyfinance.com/2010/03/making-the-most-of-your-most-valuable-financial-asset.html (my my don’t our TDs and uncivil servants (the top ones) have their fingers on the moneymaking pulse……)

    http://www.thesimpledollar.com/2010/02/28/review-bargain-junkie/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thesimpledollar+%28The+Simple+Dollar%29

    Plus these downloadable $2 books e.g. http://www.thesimpledollar.com/twenty-big-ideas/ Can anyone spare a dime for Cowen and Lenihan?

  10. G

    Says a lot about this country that when ‘American corporations (one o’clock news), ‘industrialists’ (nine o’clock news) query the education of students at university level, the Minister jumps and demands an end of week review, parents, and the media have been raising red flags, highlighting all kinds of issues at university level, including lack of senior lecturers and professors in the class room, value for money, public accountability, use of State revenue etc……Google says boo and the government run..

    • Deco

      RyanAir said 300 jobs in Hanger 6…..and the government ran the opposite direction.

      The problem is that MOL is a threat to their authority. So you get pompous morans like Bill Cullen and Martin Cullen (no relation as Michael O’Muireachtaigh would say) attacking MOL.

      As Shane Dempsey commented many moons ago…”it is all about maintaining the veneer”.

    • Bamboo

      G,
      It is simple!!.
      Multinationals don’t want to employ Irish young people/graduates. They want foreign nationals to work here. I think mainly people from Asia. Asian people have exactly the work ethics these multinationals are looking for. They work hard, clever, don’t argue with the boss, and do what they are told. This is my experience after a short stint working in Japan and in China. Maybe India workers may come to Ireland by the bus loads as well but I don’t have any experience working with Indians.

      Google and Intel are preparing (and warning) the Irish population and GOV on how they see future employment climate in Ireland. It is an easy and short preparation period. These foreign workers will then have very little employment rights as their contracts will be either temporary or on probation. Most likely these contracts are on a “take it or leave it” basis. These Asian graduates are very attractive to multinationals as they are usually the “pick of the crop” at home. (Often their family would have spend a lot of money for their education and sent away to a foreign land to earn money to send home.)

      So besides the uncertain financial and employment future we have ahead of us, we will have to cope with multinationals who can dictate new working conditions and slavery. The Irish GOV can either tolerate it or lump it. Then what about the EU law, one may wonder? Well, the EU can either take it or lump it as well.

      Very simple.

      • David_Back_From_US

        Google and other IT companies, wouldn’t hire people to do what they’re told. If you haven’t got the inspiration, get up and go and confidence to go convince others of your next brilliant idea, you won’t get hired by a large IT multinational.

        There’s no rationale for a company wanting to hire from abroad – it pays more in relocation costs, sees delays in visa issues and has an increased risk the person will leave after N years to go back home with family.

        That said, when you look at a population of 4M (Ireland) compared to ~500M (rest of Europe) and even 1000M (India or China), the global talent pool is way bigger than the pool of candidates that Ireland can offer. Even with a geographic preference, the candidates have to be better than the 100 non-Irish candidates to get the job.

        Multinationals here would love to employ Irish graduates. Assuming these graduates have a talent level equivalent or better to their global peers – and that’s more an education investment issue (and govt focus on Maths/Science) than anything else.

        • Bamboo

          Of course “Multinationals here would love to employ Irish graduates”. Don’t you think the Irish talent is most likely gone abroad at that stage or have emigration in their minds. I also think relocation costs is a thing of the past. In my experience relocation costs is payed by the employee and not by the company. The “take it or leave it” contract approach.
          Regarding leaving after N years. How many graduates want to “travel and see the world” after only one year experience or less? What good does that do? I have yet to meet a young person who wants to stay after graduating. Most likely they get a job to save some money to travel. Correct me if I am wrong.

  11. wills

    Posters.

    Ref; tim’s post at 1.

    Interesting that joan bruton s tweet response to tim’s YCYC – AIB link, she references to ‘gov support’.

    Gov support / AIB all melding into one..!!!

    • Tim

      wills, not to mention the possibility that, if the government were to lose a vote in the Dáil tomorrow, she could hold a junior finance portfolio, playing second-fiddle to Richard Bruton.

      Yet she claims. “I know nothing about it.”

      Obfuscation or truth, that should worry everyone.

  12. Tim

    Folks, The Frontline says: “Brian Lucey will be on later with Daire O’Briain (FF, PAC) to discuss banks, as will economist, Paddy Stronge”

    Daire…. is that the Comedian? (brother of “Breifne”, the alleged PONZI scheme operator in Blackrock, Dublin?)

    What is RTE doing, here?

  13. Tim

    Folks, Have you seen this?

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/speeches2010/spl43irishtax.pdf

    This is what the Mandarins believe, religiously.

    This is what we are up-against.

    Any anti-NAMA “roadmap” must focus on and deconstruct this.

    • This Darragh O’Brien, Vice chairman public accounts commitee:

      http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?fn=/documents/Committees30thDail/PAC/Membership/document1.htm

      ….and what a pathetic performance he gave, jabbering his “Tax payer is guaranteed a 8% return…” etc. was shredded to pieces by Brian Lucey who pointed towards the loss of shares we got in return instead of cash and who lost their value in less than 24 hours.

    • I am curious to learn what Lenihan means with

      Page 16:
      ISLAMIC FINANCE

      • Tim

        Ah… John ALLEN posted, in detail, on that a year and a half ago, at least. I would claim him as “the expert” here, on that.

        • Sharia Law on Finance – essentially what it means is that if two people are in a car crash in the desert no matter who is at fault the driver who was thinking of ‘Allah’ has his mortgage forgiven and the other is evicted .

          • John,

            I had a hard time digesting that to be honest, in other words found it hard to believe at all.

            I would assume that other people may not have heard about it eitherl.

            However, a little reserach leads to this:

            http://www.pwc.com/ie/en/asset-management/islamic-finance.jhtml

            My opinion on this is very simple:

            I strictly oppose and refuse to support any system which promotes, in fact demands, the death penalty for leaving it’s faith, converting to another faith!

            While Sharia Law is complex and has many schools of thought, death penalty on Apostasy is promoted by the overwhelming majority of scholars according to their very own Tariq Ramadan.

            This is another outrageous move of this government.

          • Laughing Bear – I can understand your difficulty to understand . That still does not negate my statement .It is a fact and its laws in the Western World are being modified in the meantime . Judgements in Sharia courts are made always in a religious context.

          • Governments is most ‘developed’ (i.e. open to foreign investment) nations are lubing up for Sharia investments. Sharia law contains some horrible stuff about apostasy etc, but its also very strict in relation to investments. For example, “interest” on cash is forbidden. It’s all horseshit of course – they same way they take the label off beer bottles so god won’t know they’re sipping booze.

          • Did not mean to negate your statement at all John.

            Thanks for bringing it to attention!

          • Laughing Bear – Il Hamdu Lilla quisis inshallah bukra – God is Great

          • John

            The Prophet (SAWS) said, as reported by Abdullah ibn Umar (RA): ‘Act against the polytheist, trim closely the moustache and grow your beard’. (Bukhari and Muslim)

            According to the islamic sharia council, and all four Imams (Malik, Abu Hanifa, Shafi and Ahmad) hold wearing the beard as an obligation and there is no difference of opinion about this issue among the Scholars of Islam.

            I am wondering whether we should advise Lenihan to quickly grow a beard before discussing the finance bill in public.

            I think, under the circumstances, it would suit him well.

          • Laughing Bear – Beards are not transparent and only suit fundamentalist like trade union leaders – if Lenihan wears a beard I will wear a burkka and flee the country.

      • Bamboo

        Maybe something the catholic church may want to look into. Even better, what about the Vatican?

  14. Tim

    Folks, Constantine Gurdgieve just posted this, on how NAMA is more dangerous than ANGLO:

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/speeches2010/spl43irishtax.pdf

  15. Just thinking out loud….

    Remembering that Lenihan has proposed 2,500 Million Euros to be spend on advisor services concerning NAMA over the next 10 years.

    The governments propaganda channels are well funded and this is not only RTE.

    The NAMA opposition, be it no names like myself or well knowns like David, Constantin G., Brian Lucey, are not nearly as well funded to bring forward their opposing thoughts and alternatives.

    Hence the NAMA opposition is fragmented and has no leading voice in this country.

    OK, now we have the internet and a way to reach people.

    Can we not have a session of Videos, concentrated videos, that give Constantin, Brian, David etc. the platform and the time required to speak out and EDUCATE the public.

    Honestly, I fully believe that the Joe Average on the street is totally overwhelmed, fed by conflicting informations and manipulated by well funded government brainwashing scenarios.

    People like us, reading on our own, finding and using information, well, I am afraid to say, we are a minority in this country. The Internet is used for shopping or entertainments, however, if Information is presented in audio/visual and a digestible form, they are more likely to listen and willing to follow further developments.

    Therefor I propose a You tube NO2NAMA channel, with commenting on daily events concerning the Irish situation, I do not have the peer group contacts to suggest such an idea to relevant people, but I would hope that David or someone may cast an eye over this here and gives it some consideration.

    Clear and concise Information in a digestible form with the goal to reach more people than with blogs.

    I believe it is worth a try.

    • Massey Ferguson

      Laughing Bear,

      I do feel a little hesitant at making this practical suggestion as I don’t live in Ireland presently and therefore can’t help physically with what I am about to put out there but I feel your ideas have serious merit with regard to making easy to understand Audio Visual messages.

      In order to attempt to reach the masses, a Paper Flyer could be written/designed AND then Circulated on the Window Wiper of every Car/Family who attends the Current GAA National Football League matches that are being played.

      Sure they may have small Crowds right now but that will build coming up to the Finals and attendances will explode when the Championship begins and rolls on into Summer.
      There is no stronger Organisation of People Power in Ireland than the GAA

      A Flyer with the correct information which directs people to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, indeed this site would ensure a Critical mass is reached by Mid-Summer.
      I know it would take a concerted and co-ordinated effort over a period of time it would certainly get EVERYONE Talking.

      • Massey,

        Pretty much a year befor Lehmann Brothers went bancrupt, and ever since I asked some people in a poll on their opinion, I speak with people every day and at any possible occasion on the events driving Ireland into catastrophe.

        —–
        25-Nov-07, 06:59 PM
        laughingbear
        Platinum Member

        Just a few thoughts, my take is that the decelarating global GDP and overall conditions could lead to a global recession on that scale quite easily.

        Although the “Morgan Stanely’s” of this World want us to believe that they put correctives into place to avoid such crash from happening, well, I intend to think they serve those vultures who would benefit immensly from such a crash rather than the oridnary Joe Soap who’s lifetime achievement is his house and a few bucks in a bank somewhere.

        Do you remember what happened in Argentinia not so long ago when people all of the sudden were greated by a signpost in their bank: ” No cash withdraw until further notice!” when the total freeze happened? I do not think that we are safe from such scenario at all. I think repossession of property could easily hit +100.000 in the US alone very quickly.

        Last week alone in Ireland something in the region of € 7 billion was wiped of the stock market in 3 days.
        ——

        The poll’s question was whether people think a crash on the size of the 30′s could happen this decade. Needless to say, most said NO WAY. I warned about this crash since November 2007.

        I am saying this only for one reason, audio visual presentation of NAMA opposition will reach so many more minds than somewhat technical economical blogs that are valuable, but will be skipped over in no time, simply because first of all it has it’s own and pretty weired language, and second it is boring as Hell for the average person.

        Having Brian Lucey, David McW, Constantine G. , Finton O’Toole, Shane Ross, there are many more, making their voice hear in a nearly daily You Tube broadcast will also reach youngsters that are more likely to make use of these media.

        In my opinion, it is also needed, much needed to put the events into a European, and Global context, so people can be educated what exactly caused this to happen.

        Imagine this for a second, last december I was sitting with a close to me Lady at the table and we were talking about the inherent reasons of this crisis. Now, she works very successfully in a bank since I think 5 years now. She is mid twenties.

        She had never heard about terms like “naked CDS”, “Bretton-Woods and IMF”, well, Worldbank rang a bell, but context? Nope!

        It is my experience, and of course, only personal experience, that there is a massive information deficit, self inflicted or not is not relevant, but it exists.

        Currently, we are facing deliberate and regular occurring disinformation “attacks”, allow me this word, it is appropriate in context as we are in the middle of an economic war zone, by the irish government concerning irish or european matters.

        The politically illiterate average person in Ireland is the clear majority, but they are to be counted with, if they can be mobilized and given the right informations for them continue to inform themselves and to come to informed decisions based on facts.

        It is like a sleeping giant that was kept sedated for more than decade by the incumbents. They may not know what hits them here, but by now, even they know they will be hit.

        The > 500,000 unemployed, the pensioners, and so on, I believe with all my heart, they need to be reached, and informed on the reality of irish politics, and eventually, they will move!

        Sorry for the lengthy post, but it is a matter close to my heart, as for all you folks here, and I fully believe in the power if information if presented in the right way.

        It needs commitment of the people I mentioned in the possible list of contributors, they could easily pull this of.

        It could become a permanent established, independent and public irish watchdog over time that analyzes the facts and puts them into the correct context towards the public.

        See, this is what Brian, Constantin, David, Shane etc etc do all the time, daily, but fragmented and not on a platform that is easily accessable for everyone.

        Just try to imagine the possible impact for a second….

        Best
        Georg

        • Massey Ferguson

          Hi All,

          Do take a look at this link….

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIFYPQjYhv8

          Does anyone have the skills to make this same type of “MultiMedia Presentation” but Convert it to
          “No2Nama”
          content, with the appropriate
          (i) Facts
          (ii) Figures and
          (iii) Long Term Consquences to the Irish Public….. if this legisaltion is fully enforced and acted upon over the long-term.

          MF

    • Bamboo

      I fully agree with you laughingbear. I posted the exact similar before but no comments received. NAMA is made to be complex and I think that is why “the Joe Average on the street is totally overwhelmed”. That man O’brien on the frontline kept saying that it is a complex matter. So because it is complex Joe Public doesn’t have the right to understand. I believe he doesn’t even understand it himself.

      • Bambooo,

        Just tonight, again I observed the sentences coming out of FF members in the media are always the same, today Peter Power vs. Shane Ross, repeating the same mantra over and over.

        This technique is well known, and called indoctrination, repeat it often enough, and people eventually repeat and believe it too.

        Question: Concerning AIB will the Tax payer have to bail them out again?

        Answer: We need a function banking system.

        To me it is evident, there are a couple of these standard answers FF members are briefed to perform in the public, and say NO MORE! The very same sentences were used by Darragh O’Brien a few days ago, it is blatantly obvious, and if I had the time and resources, I would just capture some of these public appearances and put a name, and date on it, and have them perform their mantra in a Rap song.

        Just as tasteless!

  16. ps200306

    How transparent will NAMA actually be? Will it be subject to the Freedom of Information Act?

    According to NAMA’s website, the methodology being employed for valuing loans to be transferred is being made publically available (although I can’t identify the precise document it’s in, from a cursory look). More worryingly, NAMA’s FAQ #9 asks: “Will details of the write-downs to be applied to the loans being transferred be made available?“. And it answers: “Each loan will be valued separately and the actual amount of the haircut or discount applied will depend on the quality of the underlying property and other collateral. This means there will not be a uniform haircut across all the loans of the institutions but the effective haircut will become apparent once NAMA begins its valuation process.”

    Now, it strikes me that a customer dealing with a bank has a right to a certain confidentiality with regard to the loans they take out, their amounts etc. So, it’s quite likely that the customer retains the same rights for any loan transferred to NAMA. So NAMA will be able to claim that customer confidentiality prohibits it from publishing or discussing precise details and amounts in any particular case. This sounds like a good way to weasel out of having to subject NAMA to any unwanted public scrutiny.

    I’m just guessing. Anyone know the actual facts of all this?

  17. ps200306

    Another idle musing …

    We’re told that we’re going to be told the methodology by which the “haircut” on loans will be decided, based on “long term economic value”. But the LTEV, even allowing that it is going to be different in each case, must be subject to certain assumptions about the performance of the economy, national demographics and a host of other variables. Faced with such unknowns, a scientific approach would not be to guess at the LTEV and pray for the best, but to create models in which a range of possible scenarios are used to set the values for each variable. An honest attempt would be made to assign a probability to the likelihood of each scenarion. So where are the NAMA models, and the best, worst, and most likely outcomes?

  18. Deco

    I just want to reassure everybody…Ireland’s biggest bank…is in safe hands…

    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/aib-boss-faces-quiz-over-8364774m-loan-to-tycoon-2085227.html

    I have a question. How do these people manage to come across one another ?

    I can also remember Senator Shane Ross saying that the cabinet bottled it when picking an AIB CEO and picked the ultimate insider.

    And let’s not forget Richie Boucher, the CEO of BoI was head of the Irish division before becomming top dog there. Another case of “promote the most high profile loser”.

  19. AndrewGMooney

    I think David’s article is excellent, but the interpretation is WAAAY! optimistic.

    The E.U are ‘gaming the crisis’ for longer-term strategic goals. Whether it’s ‘fish-for-debt’ in Iceland, or allowing Greek leaders to have their ‘catharsis’ about ‘Nazi’ Germanic cultural dissonance [thereby trashing their own validity and credibility']

    Rahm Emmanuel’s pithy epithet ‘never let a crisis go to waste’ seems apt here. Allow the FF/FG conjoined twin to writhe in its’ death throes until the idea of ‘liberation by federal decree’ comes to seem like a blessed relief.

    The end game appears to be ‘buy low, sell high’ for hard-core Europa: Sell peripheral areas into peonage with easy credit during the boom, then ‘save’ them from themselves with punitive rescue schemes involving loss of national and cultural sovereignty during the Mother Of All Busts. Never mind Ambrose-Evans Pritchard, you couldn’t make this up.

    My parents planned to ‘return home’ for retirement. It’s only ill-health that stopped them. They’re gone now, but others of their generation that I grew up with and their children of my generation are ‘back home’. Their grandchildren being ‘authentically Irish’ once more. Actually, that’s incorrect. The only ‘authentic Irish’ are those of the Diaspora, those forced to flee the interminable nonsenses of the FF/FG hyrdra which has strangulated the State since its’ dawn.

    What next? Collapse of the Vartry Tunnel or some other ‘inexplicable’ infratstructure disaster. That was a type but ‘frat boys and girls’ perfectly describes the drunken binge of the State and its’ Agents during the high-income, low-wealth ‘Boom-Boom-Bang!’

    Spring floods. Oil price spike? Something will give. Core Europa can have a ‘recovery’ leaving the periphery flat as a pancake, exporting high-tech diagnostic industrial technology to ‘emerging nations’ of peak cheap oil / shale gas B.R.I.N.D.I.A whilst supervising the bailout of banking elites on terms that ensure dominion. But beware ye fools!

    The incubus / succubus of US/UK Wall St / The City is watching, waiting and smirking, ever ready to ensnare the delusions of Old Europe in its’ own trap. USUK: United States of the United Kingdom. Divided by a common language and history. To be re-unified by the ‘discovery’ of The Malvinhas Gahwar……

    ‘Scientific reports say the Falklands’ waters may hold up to 60 billion barrels of oil equivalent in hydrocarbons, making it the second largest oil province after the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, which contains 80 billion barrels of oil equivalent.’

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/02/17/Defense-cuts-blamed-for-Falklands-oil-row/UPI-74061266441805/

    It’s double that estimate. The ‘voices’ tell me so. Aka: The Muses. Of course, the Falklands Basin is only the prelude to the real deal in Antarctica, where Pandora lies….
    All of this renders the whole ‘Sea To Shell’ episode rendundant. A pointless squabble about how a previous generation sold its’ Nation out for cash money, whilst the current one does exactly the same but with compounded egregiousness.

    “I’ve been dreaming of a time when the Irish are sick to death, of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and spit upon their names, alongside Cromwell”

    Roll on 20:12, 20/12, 2012, when a stern Leader, a cultural T-shock will emerge to bring order to chaos, instigating baby steps on The Long Road to cultural and political renewal with The Second Rising of 2016.

    That would be me, course……

    ‘Mad’ ‘Paddy’ From Brum
    lyrical-satirical-surrrealist-art-terrorist-arch-memeticist-geo-political-strategist, etc, etc.

    PS: sorry for the long ramble. Dentist this morning. Very nervous. Must ask for Laughing Gas. Regards.

    • AndrewGMooney

      The correct acronym for the Prelude To Pandora Project that may emerge from kindling of FSGA [Falklands South Georgia Antarctic] is in fact:

      SUUK – States of the United Unified Kingdom. This is entirely apt if you believe that the only real world currencies are those of recent, current and prospective empires. Used to be the Pound Sterling. Some fantasized it would be The Euro. But, for now it’s still true to say, like US forces grunts, that the only currencies are The Dollar and Fellatio. Who will end up getting SUUK’d and who will end up kneeling as SUUKee?
      Oh dear, I’m beign crude here. Must stop that rolling porn feed. *rollseyes*

      Very amusing that O’bama is playing hardball over Las Malvinhas. I guess the negotiation has begun……

      http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100027838/barack-obama%E2%80%99s-top-10-insults-against-britain/

      Like the British Tory Party, Barack is about to find out who, exactly, is running The Project. It sure as hell ain’t him! LOL!

    • Tadhgd

      Andrew G Mooney ..AGM always enjoy your posts but one thing about your recent comments is that your definition of an authentic Irish person is incorrect. It is impossible to pigeon hole an authentic Irish person and wrong to claim the diaspora as the ones possessing the true heritage. There are many and varied people who come under this category

  20. @laughingbear

    Its all smoke and mirrors, Colm O Doherty MD of AIB was on Morning Ireland, RTE player to listen to podcast if you need, muttering about the the proposed government haircut of 32% on the loan handovers to the taxpayer, but also that the loans were being individually assessed, almost as if the haircut might be less!!

    All this while the Commission is intervening with the valuation process to stop the Government through NAMA cooking the books. It should be 2 to 3 times above amount!

    Also Doherty talking about raising capital by selling off their Polish interests, one of the few places AIB is making money!! What would be left would be loss making!

    He’s also flagging that they are going to raise interest rates this year to screw borrowers, mortgage holders more.

    Simply put AIB until the valuations are called documents referring to haircuts are useless, we need NAMA to call the valuations and publish them. Though documents from any whistle blower would be very valuable to have.

    Interesting to know if commercial or any type of law allows you to get hold of the documents. What about the Freedom of Information Act.

    Also, suppose McNamara’s toxic rubbish is transferred over, can his legal team challenge the valuations?

    If so, can the courts require the State the publish NAMA valuation documents to give us a bird’s eye view of what’s going on?

  21. Deco

    Of course getting NAMA legally accepted is only half the battle for the establisment.

    The real battle concerns getting investors to buy Irish government bonds so that the Irish government has the 40 Billion Euro plus that it wants to throw at the D4 banks. Expect a massive PR offensive as the Irish establishment sets out to prove that they are very effective at grinding more PAYE out of the worker ants. This 40 Billion Euro is not just going to pop out of the sky. The Farm women already have shown their appetite for taking on the government, asking why they should be without a pension, while Cowen’s long time acquantance Roddy Molloy gets a golden handshake for being a leading contender for the worst waster ever on the state payroll in Irish history. In general pensioners, and students are also agitated. The public sector unions will be next. The real question is what wil the private sector workers who have to carry all of this demand – because that is the hard edge of the economy.

  22. On an aside todays paper:
    http://www.independent.ie/national-news/farm-group-in–protest-at-loss-of–wives-payment-2085242.html
    The power of the IFA-incredible-their wifes want to keep pensions allocated by mistake!
    Also
    http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/greek-poker-player-may-deal-aib-a-busted-flush-2085213.html
    The new (crony job) boss of AIB may find himself a trifle embarrassed.. in the coming months.

    • G

      Slaves to money – highly unoriginal.

      Wouldn’t have them inside my door.

      My kingdom for ideas
      (not in the lines of Whose Country, whose call – see previous posts)

  23. No2NAMA – register your opposition to NAMA “Become a Fan” on Facebook: bit.ly/czDHHg

    In just a day or so, we now have 68 ‘fans’. Please become a fan today, and pass it on to ALL your contacts. No reason what we can’t get thousands of ‘fans’ and get real media attention.

  24. jkforde

    Here we all are, commenting to our hearts’ content.

    But how many of us email\write\fax their protests directly to the government and TDs or get up off our apathetic arses to march and protest.

    Thought so. This is all our fault for being lazy, ignorant citizens. We deserve the lunatics in charge until we fight for better.

    Otherwise we should just shut up.

    • wills

      Yes master, will do master, shut up i will master, deserve lunatic in charge master yes …….

    • I’m mailing and rooting all the Time jk.
      So are a lot of other people. In fact, some were due to meet in Killarney on Easter Monday and all were welcome.
      It appears however that Galway is now the location, due to circumstances without our control.

      John Allen, have you picked this up??

  25. Tim

    Folks, apologies for late-notice about venue change, but the proposed meeting in Killarney will now be in Galway – same date, Easter Monday, April 5th.

    Radisson Blu Hotel.

    Hope you can make it.

  26. SLICKMICK

    Mary Ellen Synon wrote an excellent piece in yesterday’s Irish Mail (not online),regarding next Saturday’s referendum in Iceland .2/3 of the electorate will vote against bailing out Icebank etc.Looks as if the Brits and the Dutch will have to wait for their money indefinitely.Real democracy in action!.

    • Dilly

      This is also real capitalism at work. We have not had a “free market”, it was all rigged, and the bailout is only trying to keep the scam alive. But, as many economists have warned, when you meddle with the rules of capitalism (as Ireland has done), the results are disastrous.

  27. G

    Expect pincer like movement by Dutch and British Marines, with paratroops landing in the Icelandic capital.

    Icelanders to make ‘Custer-like’ last stand which will become known as the First battle of Democracy v the forces of the Financial Markets & the Hidden Hand.

  28. G

    Meanwhile on planet Zog……………….

    Bishop of Ferns asks parishes for funds for abuse cases
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0302/abuse.html

    It would seem all the ‘institutions’ are at it – withdraw support and funds and see them fall like dominos, time for radical change or we collectively take the lash. Make or break as a nation.

    • Deco

      It takes unbelievable arrogance to come up with sort of ‘appeal’. Considering all the lies that were given to the people of Ferns/Wexford in the past three decades.

      And now go to the people begging for money. This clown does not understand responsibility. The people were not responsible for the abuse scandals. Authority was.

      Never, ever, ever, give authority a second chance.

  29. wills

    Posters.

    AIB are hiking prices.

    AIB are cutting back credit more and more.

    AIB are looking for more taxpayers monies to bail them out on further losses.

    Oh yes, AIB is a private company operating under a banking license granted to provide credit and banking services to the irish citizenry.

    Now AIB are not only providing credit into the irish economy as obliged under the banking license but, the bank are also taking from the public purse to prop up their private company run for profit.

    And we are all told from un high this is just the way things are so just hand over your taxpayers billions to banks that inflated property prices to levels that lead to their own demise and anyone elses who took out massive loans to find a home to raise a family.

    • G

      It has become truly perverse, banks increasing ‘historical low’ interest rates in the midst of a national crisis, with spiralling unemployment, massive debts incurred as result of banking fecklessness and mismanagement…..it becomes more and more astonishing, absolutely nothing is beyond these people, and they will have their hands out for another 15 billion this year of taxpayers money, the same people they are trying to Royally screw for the 100th time!

      Keep pushing and the centre may indeed fold.

      How Brian Lenihan could have drawn up contracts for recapitalisation without putting in serious clauses preventing the leading banks from behaving in such an appalling manner is almost worse than the NAMA deal……..

      • Dilly

        I know a guy in Roscommon, who was trying to arrange a meeting with his bank manager. The manager refused to see him. The guy went out to the car park and put a hammer through the front window of the managers car, he went back in and said “I bet he’ll see me now”.

        • G

          Yes, acts like this may indeed occur with people under pressure.

          There will be all manner of responses, as some have highlighted here, some will leave their debts behind and seek a new life in Australia and beyond.

          Some will stay and fight, some will request medication (increasing numbers according to my GP), sadly SOME opt for suicide as the ‘only way out’ while one individual will win €10,000 euro in a local competition
          http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lotto-luck-for-bertie-with-euro10000-win-2085341.html

          When confronted with the kind of things we are currently seeing in the financial-political nexus, it is no suprise that people react in such a way, what surprises me is that more people haven’t done so……..

          The good person staying quiet while ‘evil’ has its way?

  30. MK1

    Hi again David,

    My fears about NAMA are being realised. You know Brian Lenihan has lost the plot when he claimed at one stage that the property market had reached the bottom and that yields were never as high. How come there are 300,000 unoccupied houses, approx 25% of office space is unoccupied, retail units are available up and down the country and development land, well, its there to be had if you want it. Growing a forest might have a quicker return though!

    NAMA is, and always was, a massive saving of what you have called the insiders. You ask Why has the political establishment have done it since it would seem that the vast majority of voters are not senior executives in the banks. Its true perhaps that there is vested interests at play, and by this I mean that the political class have been convinced that it is necessary to support the value or property as much as possible and this is what the NAMA vehicle is doing. Secondly, for some strange reason they see the likes of the Irish banks as belonging to Ireland and to see the likes of a BOI and an AIB go bang.

    I wouldnt give the EU Commission that much of a clap on the back. The facts are that they have condoned state aid across the EU to the banks as the financial ‘crisis’ hit, and country after country competed with each other to save ‘their institutions’. Neelie Kroes is in fact investogating if the saving of ABN AMRO/Fortis form the abyss was a step far to far as well, so Ireland with its NAMA is not alone. Its all a question of degrees and so far the EU countries have not come together and agreed on the level of state support that they will allow, which after all is a breach of their own EU rules. There should be NO STATE AID. NONE. Its a bit like your 7-5, zero is 0, right, thats the amount of state aid. Zero rugby players!

    The problem you and I, Nobel prize-winning economists and the Irish population have is that NAMA is being shoved down our throats when it is clearly a madness and costly exercise. And we are it would seem powerless to prevent it. As its silent finance, people that are affected down ther line are not likely to be as vociferous or indeed as violent as they should and could be. Indeed, one judge I understand remarked how it was unfathomable that the banks had not been torn down by the people brick by brick. Surely someone could throw a brick through a window at least? Wanna me symbolic David, maybe a brick from you could do it!

    > he will no longer give another top-down aggregate estimate is that
    > each loan will now be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, as opposed to
    > the government’s original blanket discount approach.

    I understood that it was always the intention of moving each loan in on a case by case basket but that the top line figure was taken as an average of the basket with bad loans and some performing loans. The full details of NAMA will make interesting reading but I dont know if us Joe Soaps will get to see the details as they may be deemed ‘commercially sensitive’ and marked not for publication on advice of the Attorney General. Ways and means of hiding things, eh?

    > They could have told us that Nama was never about land, but was always
    > about protecting the banks

    But I and other dogs on the street were saying that ….

    > the taxpayer will be left holding fields in Mullingar that no one wants.

    Everyone talks about these fields, but the big problems in amounts are in and around Dublin, Jurys at Ballsbridge, Glass Bottle, so Mullingar doesnt deserve its bad press and as a soundbite makes the problem sound like its remote.

    Btw, what did you think of the AIB profits? You may say they havent got any, and in totality that would be right due to their reckless lending, BUT, their operational profits are approx 2billion, which is more than way and above what I would be happy with if they were a utility bank, if they were an Irish Inc back, an Irish bank as Brian L claims and ‘a part of Ireland’. The facts are that AIB, BOI and other banks in Ireland have been creaming money (such as this 2 billion) from people and businesses for years and years.

    Lance the BOIL !!!!! (= carry out major bank reform)

    Lance the BOIL (= Stop NAMA)

    Lance the BOIL (= change government, put in a decent one if possible)

    MK1

    • Thats a positive infestation you have there MK1……………………………………

    • Deco

      I think that the AIB “profits” don’t add up. The bad debts are minimised so as to maintain the pretence that NAMA is actually a deal for the taxpayer. In fact the entire bad debts thing has been operationally pushed out so that the debts will not have to be realised.

      And anyway…..since when have we go to the point where we can take any public pronouncement from AIB as a statement of fact.

  31. G

    Excellent post on Your Country, Your Call and AIB’s involvement, keep digging, very useful……………………

  32. G

    Pre-election Propaganda………hmmmmm

    Report sees 250,000 jobs by 2015
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0302/breaking40.html

    Maybe in some parallel universe – shed any light on that JOHN ALLEN?

    I have to say, I have serious questions about this ESRI body, they seem to produce all kinds of reports, and are used by government to bolster their own position time and again.

    This latest report seems entirely off the wall, and more about securing FF than anything else – 250,000 jobs by 2015 – if the church is on planet Zog, the ESRI is on planet Pluto!

    Just wait for this to be quoted by Mary Hanafin next time on Frontline……….there is nothing, nada, coming down the line………….maybe the ESRI will create 250,000 jobs, people writing reports on everything from the habits of river salmon in Vancouver to the inter-relationship between the cosmos and Brian Cowen!

    • Deco

      Thanks G.
      Another ESRI piece of nonsense. This from the people who said that there would be housing shortage for another decade in 2006.

      Going boldly where even seasoned spoofers like Dan McLoughlan and Austin Hughes go no more.

      How about we save the taxpayer some money and disband the ESRI entirely.

      And then we have FAS. I heard a story of a woman doing a course in her local FAS office. When the class go for a break, they bring their own cutlery and ware, tea bags, milk and sugar. This from an organization that was able to send Roddy and Mrs. Molloy all around the world in Executive Class. This from an organization that spend how much money was it again on a nail job for the wife of the then IBEC boss, and Minister for Enterprise.

      It is becomming more Soviet like by the day…the truth is something that is completely oblivious to the official bodies in this country.

      Sack the ESRI. The lot of them. Get rid of them. They are a collection of wasters and amatuers. This is the body that tells the government how to tell the economy. No wonder they are clueless on ecomonic matters.

    • Deco

      You have a point concerning the fields in Mullingar under NAMA. What dragged the banks into the gutter was not some small time chancer getting silly ideas into his head.

      To create such a monumental cockup that is the Irish property crash….required class..ambition…grandeur….delusions of invincibility…arrogance(called pride)….and massive levels of utter stupidity. It took a special type of gambler.

      The Ballybrit brigage. Gamblers on the scale of Mr. Zoe, and McNama. Like Quinlan and Quinn.

      During the phony boom Irish society became a nation of Charlie Haugheys. The inner psychological charade preceded the outer financial charade. And in the end we seen deceit, farce, and a generation in dire trouble.

    • David_Back_From_US

      Actually, FAS’s analysis is all about the proportions of one job to another. note that white collar is up from 44% to 50% by 2015, meaning that anyone who left work early to join in the construction boom will find it likelier that they’ll be unemployed long term.

      The number 250K just comes from the ESRI:

      The economic forecasts underlying the projections have been produced in times of great uncertainty and are underpinned by a number of assumptions which concern the speed of the global economic recovery, competitiveness, the restoration of the financial sector, fiscal balance, nominal wage rates and migratory flows. Nevertheless, the authors are confident that the direction of the skills/occupational change projected in the report is likely to materialise

  33. Small Accountants offices are great laboratories to sense the level of confidence in the business environment and the level of success – there is only one word to express that now and that is:

    FEAR

  34. Re NAMA and developers:

    I read again today that the Government has assured it will vigorously chase up loans owed by developers included in NAMA.

    Yet, over the weekend,
    it was also reported that a large number of leases are kept high,
    that property owners don’t care about losing the leasing shops and other tenants,
    simply so that the properties can have a high valuation and be included in the NAMA process.

    Logic would have it that a private
    owner might be more vigorous in chasing up loans owed than the state.
    Seems to be borne out by the developers, in who they prefer to owe the money to…..

  35. ps200306

    “Scientific reports say the Falklands’ waters may hold up to 60 billion barrels of oil equivalent in hydrocarbons, making it the second largest oil province after the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, which contains 80 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

    It’s double that estimate. The ‘voices’ tell me so.”

    I’d be getting those voices seen to if I were you. This cr@p in the MSM about Falklands oil is very naive and uninformed speculation. In the technical jargon of oil exploration, 60 bn barrels is not only not “proven”, it is not even “probable”. In fact it’s based on nothing but speculation over seismic data. Also, with respect, comparisons to Ghawar are so farfetched as to be hardly worth commenting on. Even the terminology is wrong — Ghawar is a supergiant field, while the Falklands is a dolly mixture of relatively unconnected plays. Ghawar has already produced more oil than the grossest speculative estimates of oil-in-place for the Falklands. Whatever comes out of the Falklands is likely to be at least an order of magnitude smaller than Ghawar, perhaps two orders of magnitudem and could be nothing at all. Ghawar has produced two thirds of oil Saudi oil since the forties and even now — past its prime — produces an amazing 7% of total world production from a single field (which is why we should be very worried … more water than oil comes out of Ghawar now, since production is propped up by water flooding). Most importantly — two thirds of the prospective Falklands oil is in the Southern basin, under up to 10,000 foot of water. The cost of recovery will be vast. While Ghawar happily produced in the 1980-90s era of $10-$20 oil, prices like that would have the six companies prospecting in the Falklands shut up shop and head for the hills (as indeed happened with the 1998 drilling tests in the Falklands). Finally, regarding the vast riches accruing to Britain — the oil companies get most of the moolah with the Falkland Islands getting a 25% share of the oil and a 9% royalty on every barrel. I’m not aware that Britain directly gets anything.

    • AndrewGMooney

      ps200306: “Thank you. Drop dead….”

      Let’s continue this fascinating discussion on The Oil Drum….I assume you’re a Doomer? What’s your take on Shale Gas? Tar Sands? *yawns*

      Britain is a corporatocracy, like most other previous ‘Nation States’. It is owned, not by its’ voters, but by its’ ‘shareholder pension fund class warriors’. Hence the profits of Antarctic Pandora will accrue to them, just as THATCHER! ensured North Sea Oil and Gas wouldn’t enrich the infrastructure of the soi-disant Nation State.

      And just like the previous hidden junta in ‘Ireland’ sold off Corrib for buttons……

      best
      Mad Paddy From Brum

      ps: The Muses aka, ‘voices’. I do get them seen too regulary. But my psychiatrist refuses to treat them. He says it’s impossible to cure my condition with any known drugs or E.C.T. My official diagnosis is ‘Genius’, but I prefer the ‘lyrical – satricial’- etc. It’s more informative for the casual reader. Have a nice day.

  36. s1lverbullet

    i keep bringing this point up: we should focus on who is advising our eejits in the government:- answer…. first it was PWC, Merrill Lynch, Arthur Cox,and Rothschilds. and now it’s just Rothschilds! NAMA is the brainchild of the Rothschilds, London. Why is there no talk of this in the media? I wonder…….. it’s seems more and more like some huge financial conspiracy and we are the test case. I dont know if the government are so corrupt or maybe just too stupid to see how this will ruin the country if we are so braindead to let them get away with it. I for one am MAD AS HELL

  37. wills

    Posters.

    AIB CEO on RTE threatening to pass all the costs on to the customer for AIB losses.

    This is banking tyranny right there in action, subtle, mis use of the state owned TV channel broadcasting a private companies threat to the irish people and a show of strength to the iriah people hey look i can come on here and pass on this info on RTE and you must adhere to it.

  38. FEAR – anywhere you go ,anyone you talk to, anything you talk about is all centered on FEAR …….nothing since the hunger strike of Bobby Sands has created anything like this before .
    Leninhan is a living FEAR .

    He must STOP his Tyranny NOW

  39. Foolish Penny, if you’re about.

    psdp@imagine.ie gets me.

  40. Notice a coordinated Colm Doherty of AIB, followed by Honahan of Central Bank, then Cowen in Dail all bolstering NAMA in a mutual prop up AIB and NAMA routine today?

    • Deco

      Actually – it seemed to be a day of roll out the facts that will bolster this recovery. With ESRI, the IDA, FAS all saying positive things. And Honohan claiming NAMA will fix everything. And the various stockbrokers saying good things about AIB’s record loss. And Cowen on his TINA routine again.

      It brings me back to the article that David wrote a few weeks ago about live in the village in the Soviet Union, with Pravda telling the villagers about the record harvest on the steppes….

  41. We can’t do nothing as we will live to pay the consequences as regards NAMA. We could get a petition going to stop NAMA. What taxpayer is going to want to pay more taxes to bail out developers.? Who wants to work till they are 68 as FF has used the pension reserve fund to prop up rotten banks.?25% people in Iceland signed a petition against paying off repaying $5 billion lost by British and Dutch savers when the island’s banks collapsed. We could copy their example. Check out this link. http://synonblog.dailymail.co.uk/2010/02/the-clue-is-in-the-bloodline-viking.html

  42. Deco

    This link is for those of you that might have any knowledge of the politics that goes in South Dublin County Council. SDCC are finding time for photos like this, but during the snow crisis in January SDCC presided over the worse mess in Leinster. The SDCC method of dealing with record snow and an inch of ice on all the oards (including the M50) seemed to amount to – if people keep driving on it is will melt, therefore do nothing and wait until it melts.

    Anyway here we go. All in a happy photo. Except this deal has no planning permission yet. So why are they all chums with each other ? Well, think about that in your own time.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/education/2010/0302/1224265424568.html
    Here we have a very wealthy man who has property interests, and two prominent local politicians.

    We just can’t seem to drop the property as a way of making money craze. Property get into the head of the national psyche and produces all sorts of optimism. It even helps us see imaginary customers. By the way, there are all sorts of rumours going around about some of the characters in the picture. I would not dare reprint any of these on this or any Irish website. And don’t anybody else do it either – or else David McW will get into trouble. Please.

    The CityWest Hotel is used by both FF and FG for their Ard Fheiseanna. I think the ILP used it once as well – and SF might have used it once also as well. I don’t know about the PDs or the GP – they don’t big facilities anymore.

    • Deco

      Also…it seems that in a very subtle manner the the journalist who wrote that article is not fully enamoured with the way this procedure is being undertaken.

      Don’t comment on any of the participants. Serious about that.

    • wills

      A shopping centre turned into a college, am i reading this right or is this for real.

    • s1lverbullet

      weren’t most of the supposed bombers at 9/11 from Saudi Arabia??

    • wills

      Deco,

      I would see any wealthy artists throwing a few bob into a hat for to alleviate public finances as a sick joke.

  43. wills

    Posters.

    So the taxpayer is to believe AIB had no clue on 2009 losses incurred relating to bad debts.

    Are these people for real or do they really believe we are all swallowing this utter bullsh1t.

  44. United States of Windsor

    Suddenly, the exploding debt crises in the PIIGS countries – Poland, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain – have been unceremoniously shoved out of the headlines, only to be replaced by shocking news that …

    Massive debt and out-of-control government spending are raising fears of a British debt default!

    Just recently, the British government shocked the world with the revelation that it suffered an unprecedented gusher of red ink in its January federal budget – a massive deficit in a month which had forever delivered only revenue windfalls.

  45. Tim

    Constantine Gurdgieve is not in optimistic mood, this evening:

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/

  46. wills

    Posters.

    Did you know that the debt based monetary system we use means the following fact,

    ‘In the eventuality that we could all pay off our debt, the system would collapse, as there is not actually enough physical money in circulation to satisfy this blatent paradox.
    just as if all the savers tried to pull out their money from the banks, they would quickly find that this would be impossible…. such as what happened in Argentina, when ordinary people could not withdraw their money from local branches of global banking corporations.’

    I

  47. wills

    Posters.

    Did you know that the debt based monetary system we use means the following,

    ‘It is all part of the smokescreen designed to hide the truth from the people, thus keeping us under control.’

  48. wills

    Posters.

    Did you know the debt based monetary system we use operates along the following principle,

    ‘I give you £1…

    You give me £1.10 back…

    Where does the £0.10 come from??? I only gave you a pound and there only is a pound… The £0.10 is impossible to create as I control the money…

    I hide it well and create £10 but ask for £11 back… I create £1000 but ask for £1100 back… It is impossible.’

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