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	<title>Comments on: Let’s get logical on the euro</title>
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	<description>The website of economist, author and broadcaster, David McWilliams</description>
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		<title>By: Ruairí</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-74591</link>
		<dc:creator>Ruairí</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Mar 2010 20:25:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-74591</guid>
		<description>David,

you said .........

&quot;Membership of the euro almost guarantees this outcome, because the state can neither inflate away debts nor devalue to energise the exporting sector and to generate the growth that is necessary to pay the old debts.&quot;

With the rocketing price of gold vis a vis the Euro, isn&#039;t this the right time, and only time, for us to decouple from th Euro currency, in order to pay back debts in Euros that would be devaluing themselves on an ongoing basis as the currency&#039;s crisis unwinds?
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/gold-at-record-highs-8831</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David,</p>
<p>you said &#8230;&#8230;&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;Membership of the euro almost guarantees this outcome, because the state can neither inflate away debts nor devalue to energise the exporting sector and to generate the growth that is necessary to pay the old debts.&#8221;</p>
<p>With the rocketing price of gold vis a vis the Euro, isn&#8217;t this the right time, and only time, for us to decouple from th Euro currency, in order to pay back debts in Euros that would be devaluing themselves on an ongoing basis as the currency&#8217;s crisis unwinds?<br />
<a href="http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/gold-at-record-highs-8831" rel="nofollow">http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/gold-at-record-highs-8831</a></p>
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		<title>By: aodhanc</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-74008</link>
		<dc:creator>aodhanc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 19:57:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-74008</guid>
		<description>David,
You make some very valid points, but ultimately, I think that Ireland leaving the eurozone would send out a very bad signal internationally.
It would be seen as a path to isolationalism and in my opinion, would discourage foreign direct investment, on which we are very reliant.
Also, a small currency like the Irish punt would be hijacked by currency speculators like what happened in the early 1990s.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David,<br />
You make some very valid points, but ultimately, I think that Ireland leaving the eurozone would send out a very bad signal internationally.<br />
It would be seen as a path to isolationalism and in my opinion, would discourage foreign direct investment, on which we are very reliant.<br />
Also, a small currency like the Irish punt would be hijacked by currency speculators like what happened in the early 1990s.</p>
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		<title>By: John ALLEN</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-73994</link>
		<dc:creator>John ALLEN</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 18:47:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73994</guid>
		<description>furrylugs - we must do a legal challenge of some sort .If it is the High Court it is more simple ......even if I buy you your legal garb and wig you could make a great impression in the hall of fame .Let the people talk I am sure its a lot easier than it appears and within a small budget...some friendly unemployed legal eagle could help.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>furrylugs &#8211; we must do a legal challenge of some sort .If it is the High Court it is more simple &#8230;&#8230;even if I buy you your legal garb and wig you could make a great impression in the hall of fame .Let the people talk I am sure its a lot easier than it appears and within a small budget&#8230;some friendly unemployed legal eagle could help.</p>
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		<title>By: machholz</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-73911</link>
		<dc:creator>machholz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:18:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73911</guid>
		<description>Ref: Bamboo’s  point 
I can confirm that to be true as I have a German friend that came over to Ireland (Galway)
5 years ago and yes he only had 2 years experience as an architect 
He is now on his way to Canada as work here in Ireland has all but disappeared 
He tells me that he will stay in Canada for two years and then move to the USA 
He believes that it will take 15 years for Ireland to come out of this depression!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ref: Bamboo’s  point<br />
I can confirm that to be true as I have a German friend that came over to Ireland (Galway)<br />
5 years ago and yes he only had 2 years experience as an architect<br />
He is now on his way to Canada as work here in Ireland has all but disappeared<br />
He tells me that he will stay in Canada for two years and then move to the USA<br />
He believes that it will take 15 years for Ireland to come out of this depression!</p>
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		<title>By: manofiona</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-73896</link>
		<dc:creator>manofiona</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 20:39:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73896</guid>
		<description>It is normal that the discussion in this forum should focus on the implications of the Euro for Ireland, but the real issue arising from the post-Lehman crisis is the implications of the Euro and EU membership for all member states.

The Euro was launched on the basis that sovereign states could constitute a single currency area while being subject to no real constraints on their domestic economic policy. That was a major mistake.

The Euro, like EU membership, can provide, and has provided, massive benefits for its member states but especially in times of low economic growth the implications of that membership need to be understood.

In a single market and currency area, it is normal that some parts of the area are in deficit with other parts - perhaps structurally in deficit. Many US states or Canadian provinces are structurally in deficit with others. 

The important thing is that there exist accepted mechanisms for dealing with those deficits. That includes financial transfers to the deficit areas and also movements of resources (capital - and people) to the surplus areas. That , in turn, requires a central political authority strong enough to ensure that the necessary financial transfers occur - and the necessary movements of resources. In federal states, the power of the federal authority is  essential for these purposes.

For both these things  (financial transfers and movement of resources) to happen in the EU, member states have to give up the powers they possess to interfere with these processes, in particular their ability to fix or influence conditions in the large parts of the economy which can be shielded from outside competition - and their ability to use their tax sovereignty to interfere with or attempt to direct the movement of resources.

In today´s EU, national sovereignty has allowed price differnces to continue to exist in what should be a single market and tax systems to be used essentially to create artificial transfers of resources. As a correpondent to this forum noted, Ireland´s low corporate tax rate has done a lot more for transfer pricing by multinational corporations (artificially locating profits in Ireland) than it has done for Irish jobs.

The way foward, for Ireland, and for the EU as a whole, is to face squarely and honestly the implications of the objectives of the single market and the single currency. Those implications are the transfer of regulatory power over the financial sector to exclusively European institutions and making real progress towards the creation of a real European political authority which can ensure (like the US or Canadian federal governments) that the necessary financial and resource transfers take place between those parts of the union which are necessarily in deficit and those which are in surplus. 

When that happens, it will not be possible for one part of the Union to deviate (as Ireland and Greece did) from the overall economic model of the Union  and Irish taxpayers (who will no longer exist - only European taxpayers) will not be left on their own to shoulder the consequences of the errors of rogue governments.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is normal that the discussion in this forum should focus on the implications of the Euro for Ireland, but the real issue arising from the post-Lehman crisis is the implications of the Euro and EU membership for all member states.</p>
<p>The Euro was launched on the basis that sovereign states could constitute a single currency area while being subject to no real constraints on their domestic economic policy. That was a major mistake.</p>
<p>The Euro, like EU membership, can provide, and has provided, massive benefits for its member states but especially in times of low economic growth the implications of that membership need to be understood.</p>
<p>In a single market and currency area, it is normal that some parts of the area are in deficit with other parts &#8211; perhaps structurally in deficit. Many US states or Canadian provinces are structurally in deficit with others. </p>
<p>The important thing is that there exist accepted mechanisms for dealing with those deficits. That includes financial transfers to the deficit areas and also movements of resources (capital &#8211; and people) to the surplus areas. That , in turn, requires a central political authority strong enough to ensure that the necessary financial transfers occur &#8211; and the necessary movements of resources. In federal states, the power of the federal authority is  essential for these purposes.</p>
<p>For both these things  (financial transfers and movement of resources) to happen in the EU, member states have to give up the powers they possess to interfere with these processes, in particular their ability to fix or influence conditions in the large parts of the economy which can be shielded from outside competition &#8211; and their ability to use their tax sovereignty to interfere with or attempt to direct the movement of resources.</p>
<p>In today´s EU, national sovereignty has allowed price differnces to continue to exist in what should be a single market and tax systems to be used essentially to create artificial transfers of resources. As a correpondent to this forum noted, Ireland´s low corporate tax rate has done a lot more for transfer pricing by multinational corporations (artificially locating profits in Ireland) than it has done for Irish jobs.</p>
<p>The way foward, for Ireland, and for the EU as a whole, is to face squarely and honestly the implications of the objectives of the single market and the single currency. Those implications are the transfer of regulatory power over the financial sector to exclusively European institutions and making real progress towards the creation of a real European political authority which can ensure (like the US or Canadian federal governments) that the necessary financial and resource transfers take place between those parts of the union which are necessarily in deficit and those which are in surplus. </p>
<p>When that happens, it will not be possible for one part of the Union to deviate (as Ireland and Greece did) from the overall economic model of the Union  and Irish taxpayers (who will no longer exist &#8211; only European taxpayers) will not be left on their own to shoulder the consequences of the errors of rogue governments.</p>
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		<title>By: s1lverbullet</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-1#comment-73759</link>
		<dc:creator>s1lverbullet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:20:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73759</guid>
		<description>i dont think the ecb slipped up. expansion of credit then contraction = recesion/depression. cause and effect. this was well planned out( same as fed reserve in US)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i dont think the ecb slipped up. expansion of credit then contraction = recesion/depression. cause and effect. this was well planned out( same as fed reserve in US)</p>
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		<title>By: s1lverbullet</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-1#comment-73757</link>
		<dc:creator>s1lverbullet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73757</guid>
		<description>how about this one .... stay in the euro but let the guarantee run out and let the banks go bust. obviously we must guarantee our citizen&#039;s deposits(up to a limit) but why should we pay for bondholders idiocy. set up a new state bankfor us and screw the international markets. Tap up Chavez in Venezuela for 50 or so billion at low interest to help us break free from the globalist elite. sound good??</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>how about this one &#8230;. stay in the euro but let the guarantee run out and let the banks go bust. obviously we must guarantee our citizen&#8217;s deposits(up to a limit) but why should we pay for bondholders idiocy. set up a new state bankfor us and screw the international markets. Tap up Chavez in Venezuela for 50 or so billion at low interest to help us break free from the globalist elite. sound good??</p>
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		<title>By: s1lverbullet</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-1#comment-73754</link>
		<dc:creator>s1lverbullet</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 15:56:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73754</guid>
		<description>some construction sites are prob so far along and have sufficient cash as to warrant completion, but no way will they sell!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>some construction sites are prob so far along and have sufficient cash as to warrant completion, but no way will they sell!</p>
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		<title>By: Furrylugs</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-73732</link>
		<dc:creator>Furrylugs</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 13:05:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73732</guid>
		<description>I had a quick read through. I&#039;ll study deeper tonight when &quot;Fridge-Filling&quot; duty is over. It seems the kind of strategic analysis our politically hubristic system could never contemplate.

&quot;Not one politician from either party is even willing to discuss the fact these promises cannot be honored. “

Same Same here in Ireland, Malcolm.
It&#039;s all about the &quot;Big Picture&quot; and hanging on to power or whatever it is these people get off on. 
To dump all the Econo-babble and look logically at whats happening, Money is being loaned to make money to package into fairytale &quot;products&quot; to lend back to lenders. The measure of success is the &quot;profit&quot; and thus bonuses, realised from all this hallucination.
Meanwhile, most of the world hasn&#039;t made a phone call or ate a square meal in their lifetime.
So I suppose it&#039;s relative, all this credit crunch angst. Given a choice of living in Ireland or Afghanistan, it&#039;s a no brainer, even with our present dysfunctional system. No matter how bad NAMA  or whatever is, at least we can shop without snipers and the house will be standing in the morning and not run over by a yankee tank. And our kids can go to school without being brainwashed into martyrdom or lifted for being &quot;terrorists&quot;.

Thats me being positive too. Life could be a hell of a lot worse. Here life has some value, the life expectancy of your average Palistinian male youth is fairly slim.
Thge bulk of the world is bereft of fundamental human dignity let alone civil rights.
Has anyone ever given a thought, while on that long haul holiday flight, to the despair and cruelty going on ten miles below. Thats as close as most of us Westerners are going to get to what is reality and daily life for most of the people on Planet Earth.
F</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a quick read through. I&#8217;ll study deeper tonight when &#8220;Fridge-Filling&#8221; duty is over. It seems the kind of strategic analysis our politically hubristic system could never contemplate.</p>
<p>&#8220;Not one politician from either party is even willing to discuss the fact these promises cannot be honored. “</p>
<p>Same Same here in Ireland, Malcolm.<br />
It&#8217;s all about the &#8220;Big Picture&#8221; and hanging on to power or whatever it is these people get off on.<br />
To dump all the Econo-babble and look logically at whats happening, Money is being loaned to make money to package into fairytale &#8220;products&#8221; to lend back to lenders. The measure of success is the &#8220;profit&#8221; and thus bonuses, realised from all this hallucination.<br />
Meanwhile, most of the world hasn&#8217;t made a phone call or ate a square meal in their lifetime.<br />
So I suppose it&#8217;s relative, all this credit crunch angst. Given a choice of living in Ireland or Afghanistan, it&#8217;s a no brainer, even with our present dysfunctional system. No matter how bad NAMA  or whatever is, at least we can shop without snipers and the house will be standing in the morning and not run over by a yankee tank. And our kids can go to school without being brainwashed into martyrdom or lifted for being &#8220;terrorists&#8221;.</p>
<p>Thats me being positive too. Life could be a hell of a lot worse. Here life has some value, the life expectancy of your average Palistinian male youth is fairly slim.<br />
Thge bulk of the world is bereft of fundamental human dignity let alone civil rights.<br />
Has anyone ever given a thought, while on that long haul holiday flight, to the despair and cruelty going on ten miles below. Thats as close as most of us Westerners are going to get to what is reality and daily life for most of the people on Planet Earth.<br />
F</p>
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		<title>By: Malcolm McClure</title>
		<link>http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/02/21/lets-get-logical-on-the-euro/comment-page-2#comment-73719</link>
		<dc:creator>Malcolm McClure</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:53:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/?p=2150#comment-73719</guid>
		<description>Furrylugs: I try to remain positive, because I grew up to believe in progressivism. However logic and history are beginning to persuade me that there are more than just bumps along the road ahead-- we may be approaching a landslide.
http://theburningplatform.com/economy/21st-century-breakdown
What do you think of this American analysis?
It is said that history doesn&#039;t repeat itself -- but it rhymes.
A lot of the EU sovereign debt is backed by Repo arrangements but since collateral assets in many cases were placed multiple times (illegally) then any default will cascade quickly.
As The Fourth Turning suggests, we need to consider the downside of all this: &quot;The unsustainable entitlement promises made by politicians over decades would have guaranteed a dollar collapse by 2030 anyway, so we will just arrive sooner. Not one politician from either political party has the courage to stand in front of the American people and tell them they will not receive the Social Security and Medicare benefits they were promised. Not one politician from either party is even willing to discuss the fact these promises cannot be honored. &quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Furrylugs: I try to remain positive, because I grew up to believe in progressivism. However logic and history are beginning to persuade me that there are more than just bumps along the road ahead&#8211; we may be approaching a landslide.<br />
<a href="http://theburningplatform.com/economy/21st-century-breakdown" rel="nofollow">http://theburningplatform.com/economy/21st-century-breakdown</a><br />
What do you think of this American analysis?<br />
It is said that history doesn&#8217;t repeat itself &#8212; but it rhymes.<br />
A lot of the EU sovereign debt is backed by Repo arrangements but since collateral assets in many cases were placed multiple times (illegally) then any default will cascade quickly.<br />
As The Fourth Turning suggests, we need to consider the downside of all this: &#8220;The unsustainable entitlement promises made by politicians over decades would have guaranteed a dollar collapse by 2030 anyway, so we will just arrive sooner. Not one politician from either political party has the courage to stand in front of the American people and tell them they will not receive the Social Security and Medicare benefits they were promised. Not one politician from either party is even willing to discuss the fact these promises cannot be honored. &#8220;</p>
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