Sometimes we can be an extremely vindictive society. In times of trouble, there’s often a dreadful clamour for vengeance. As a general rule, it seems sensible to avoid those who seek recrimination and punishment for those who made mistakes; although righteous indignation may satisfy a visceral yearning, vengeance and outrage don’t move things on one bit.
Nowhere is this more relevant than in economics and finance, particularly now, when we are in dire straits. One of the biggest questions facing our country is how are we going to deal with the simple mistake made by hundreds of thousands who bought property at the top of the boom. Many of these people — ourselves, our brothers, sisters or children — were cynically manipulated by “vested interests” and find themselves in the situation where they can’t repay the loans they have taken out.
So what are we to do? Back in February, this column argued for a debt moratorium for people who simply can’t pay. Interestingly, it seems that our mortgage lenders are coming around to this position. There are many imaginative ways of giving people a break. We need to give ordinary people a chance. Ireland must give people hope, because hope is what will prevent us from sinking and without hope and a belief in the future, we will get nowhere.
The idea of debt deferral means the banks would write off say 50pc of the principal and in return get to own half the house so that in 15 years’ time, when all this is a bad memory, the bank gets half the upside when the house is sold. This is not as radical as it sounds and in the US such proposals have been around for a few months.
This is what corporations do when they are in trouble. In corporate finance it is called a debt/equity swap. For example, this was the route that Independent News and Media took with its debt-holders recently. The deal was that the debt-holders (the bankers in this case) would take shares in the company instead of forcing the company to pay all its debts now. Over the next few years, if things turn out better, the shares will rise and the company, the creditors and the shareholders will survive. It’s not perfect, but nothing anyone does from here is going to be perfect. Crucially, though, it gives everyone hope again.
If we look at the hundreds of thousands now in negative equity, the main argument against deferring debts, which can’t be paid anyway, is that if we defer debts now, people will just do it again the next time the economy recovers.
In economics, the idea is that if you let people away with their mistakes they will never learn. This way of looking at such a dilemma is to say, “hard luck, you made an error and you should pay”. This view contends that this is the way life works — “you win some, you lose some” and when you win (as people who sold land in the boom did) you win big. In contrast, when you lose (as hundreds of thousands who bought in the boom did) you lose everything. This works fine in a pure world where everyone takes a hit and moves on. But in a world where the banks are being bailed out, thousands of people struggling with debt can rightly ask, what about me?
Quite apart from the obvious disparity between the treatment of the big bankrupt banks and the small person in negative equity, there is another huge issue, which is lost in today’s deliberation about where we go next. Let’s try to look at the dreadful debt trap we are in from the national perspective because all these thousands of decisions add up to one collective dilemma.
When you think about it, when the banks lend you a mortgage, they are betting on you. They are betting on your “long-term economic value” — that is, your ability to pay over the next few decades. They are taking a view on your career and your financial prospects. The house is just the security, but the income is you and your abilities.
Now with unemployment up sharply, wages falling and the next move in interest rates likely to be upward, the prospects of the average person have taken a huge hit. But if the banks move against the person now, they cut off any hope of redemption. The unemployed person caught in the trap has a choice: emigrate or stay on the dole. Those who have jobs will save more because they are worried about the future. This is what we are faced with. So we need to change things and give people hope.
Think about emigration: once a person leaves this country, they are gone and they contribute nothing to the place. Most often, emigrants are young people in whom the country has invested hugely in terms of education so to get nothing back is quite a waste. Likewise, if that person goes on the dole, the State pays their income so the situation for the country is actually worse. And if the person stays here in a job — just clinging on — but saves everything he or she earns, then the place grinds to a halt with people too scared to spend. Prices then fall and fall further. This cycle has to be broken quickly.
LP Hartley said: “The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there.” This is where we have to start now. What is done is done. It is time for solutions, not recrimination. Sometimes ideas which might sound radical are the only alternative. Debt deferral, while not perfect, is an obvious place to start, and since we are giving the banks so much money, there should be some conditions placed on the banks for our benefit.
We have a generation — in the prime of their lives — who are stuck, dragged down by mistakes made in the wild hysteria of the past five or so years. That place was “a foreign country”. It is now time to reinvent ourselves as a better country, one that learns from the past but is not hostage to it.









Folks, can I ask this question:
“If you cannot collapse this dreadful government, are you an, utterly, “pointless” opposition?”
How bad does a government have to be, after all?
Or, does it work differently, and should George Lee have joined FF and tried to change our course, from within?
Now, though, he may have “sold-out”.
Where the HELL was he, when the NAMA vote was going on?
Tim, all questions are valid.
Firstly, what would you like the opposition to do? They don’t have the numbers to overthrow the government.
Secondly, you’ll have to email George to get an answer to why he wasn’t there for the vote. My guess is he and FG knew they couldn’t stop it progressing with their numbers in opposition.
Thirdly, would George have got a warm welcome in FF? I doubt it myself.
Finally, what could George do in government that could alter NAMA? Remember, NAMA is Lenny’s baby, and Lenny wasn’t going to hand over his baby to anyone.
Colin_in_exile, perhaps you are missing my posts on GL from last June and July…….
Alan Ahearne was opposed to NAMA, just as George says he is.
I am suggesting that “something” happens, once they get their ass on a “seat”.
People need to think about that ……
Tim, can you provide a reference for Alan Ahearne’s prior opposition to NAMA? I looked and can’t find one.
I can find plenty of articles where he said the boom was unsustainable, where the fiscal position was untenable. He was right. This is not the same thing as being opposed to NAMA.
If you can produce the evidence, fair enough. But until I see it, I think you are being unfair to Alan Ahearne.
Paddy
Paddy, you can see everything Alan Ahearne has written, such as “……., there should be no stimulus measures aimed at the housing market. Like the common cold, the unwinding of the house price bubble must run its course. There is no simple cure—though there are plenty of snake-oil salesmen hawing schemes they claim will boost the market.
The simple fact is that house prices must drop further and the construction sector must shrink. Falling prices will eventually revive transactions. The sooner sellers face reality, the better. Schemes being pushed by vested interests are attempts to stick taxpayers with the bill for their excesses.”
here:
http://www.nuigalway.ie/staff/alan_ahearne/media.html
While he envisaged a “bad-bank” working out the toxic assets, his preference was for the banks to deal with the issue themselves.
He repeatedly wrote that, if an agency (he mentions the NTMA) was do do the job for the banks, the agency, (now NAMA) must NOT overpay on the value of the assets.
That is why he was opposed to NAMA – the over-paying element.
Then, he got hired.
Ponder this:
How long would the current govt last
if F.G. picketed the Dail.
Refuse to sit and debate with a bunch of gangster’s, who will bankrupt the
country.
My guess is 2 Weeks but does ENDA have the balls .
OK. Tull McAdoo puts on Economic hat to deal with problem of debt for equity swap as proposed by David’s article.
Bank borrows 400k in Money Markets to give to Paddy to buy house. Markets charge Bank interest on borrowing, Bank passes on charge to Paddy with added premium for providing this fantaboulous service.
Paddy loses job or whatever and house looses half its value i.e. double whammy. David suggests, Bank takes half share in house for 200k of debt. Everybody happy now.??? Move on 15 years and house is sold by mutual consent for new price of 400k as house prices have doubled in intervening 15 years. Paddy gets 200k and Bank gets 200k, plus whatever capital+interest Paddy paid on his 200k in intervening 15 years.
OK Tull McAdoo puts on Bankers hat and ask’s “ why the hell should I bother with that scheme”. Why not foreclose on Paddy, sell house on open market for 200k, which I will be happy to provide to someone more solvent than Paddy and collect interest profit on same. Meanwhile I get nice Judgement on insolvent Paddy for outstanding balance of 200k plus interest. Now I have insolvent Paddy and new best friend Paddy eile , and each are paying back 200k plus interest, or all of the money I borrowed from Money Markets. I am collecting my margin, shareholders re- elect me and pay me nice bonus plus rounds of golf with other Banker buddies.
OK Tull McAdoo puts back on Economic hat and points out to forum the difference between debt for equity swaps on domestic houses and commercial property which are capable of generating independent cash flows and can be traded on open market as opposed to principle private residences which come with all inherent safeguards built in. Banks are not run as extension of Social service but are private businesses run to generate profits for their shareholders. UNLESS (jasus that’s a big unless) major shareholder decides that it wants both Paddies happy and fighting fit, with HOPE in their little hearts for the benefit of the Economy as a whole. Over to you Mr. Big or “nice man” Brian, man of the people, and Soldier of Destiny, as the ball it seems has landed on your side of the court.????
Tull McAdoo, They’re not “private businesses” anymore…… after the “social” guarantee……
@ Tim “I am suggesting that “something” happens, once they get their ass on a “seat”.”
Well if its long enough on a seat it usually goes asleep,sure does’nt George know that, after all He did raise that very point in the Dail some time ago much to the distaste of on of my regulars here in South Kerry. Unless of course your backside can “meditate” as was sudggested back then.
P.S. On mature reflection I do know that a good few TD’s have managed to make that particular part of their anathomy speak on more than one occasion.
Re G’s Hitman comment.
I just watched it and feel many others might want too see it. The clip before it is also revealing.
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/11/10/hoodwinked_former_economic_hit_man_john
kissane: Good link – thank you.
Everything is OVER we have sailed into a foreign land inside what was once our own country .
This Forum has failed .There is no more to write or read about .No one is interested anymore .
David , you are the only one in the race against yourself now.You are now only a ‘state of mind’.
David – in your book you wrote about the “Manufacturing of Consent”.
This is a direct reference to the work of Adam Curtis, and his eye-opening documentary called “The Century of Self”.
The key agent for consent in Ireland is the News. It is not Prime Time or any documentary.
The news is the means of engineering compliance is the news service.
This was how the Lisboa Treaty 2.0 victory was engineered. The news service is biased and operates not to control the interpretation of real world events and to filter and prioritise reactions.
Its also a title of a book by Herman and Chomsky (1988), the central argument of which is that the ‘free press’ exists to direct consumption (as opposed to political brain washing). Their hypothesis is that Corporates are at the top of the pile, with the media and the political classes serving their needs.
Liam – I will find that book. I bet it is full of interesting quotations.
It is just that with NAMA going through the Dail, the media is giving us saturation coverage along the lines of ‘Bread and Circusses”.
Cowen’s only comment that was coverd by the media all week on a front page, concerned his endorsement of candidates in the Pop-Idol Contest on ITV.
Even your average South American Banana Republican Cheif would have more self-respect than to be getting involved in trash TV.
Deco -
the News >> the delivery vehicle to offer the sheeple ‘the illusion of choice’ when the only choice there is, is,
how to give more rent to the rent seekers / stealers!
Wills – I have suddenly realised that the News is the effective mechanism for controlling the population. It is litterally like that.
It takes a fixed amount of capital to set up an news organization. And with newer technologies, this is continually falling. This means that new mechanisms will be created to undermine the hierarchies. Hopefully, these will be the sort of decentralized, spontaneous loose cannons that are liable to tell us what is really happening.
The only restriction is the censorous Defamantion Law. Which was made even more censorous and restrictive by Lenihan. Of course this applies even more to business. Bernie Madoff is a crook, but Michael Lynn is a solicitor who is living abroad, and who has questions to answer.
There is no free speech in Ireland. Instead we have a legal code that is a schemer’s charter. And the uppity elements in our society will do whatever it takes to preserve it that way.
John ALLEN – i’ve been pondering on that one too, that the battle is lost, but the war is still afoot and victory will be the truth.
Poster.
The irish times lead on ‘kidnapped priest’ headline reads ……….
…….’the kidnappers couldn’t have been better under the circumstances’ and it struck me absurd realism has broken out all over the shop cos for a second i though the headline was about NAMA and the bankers.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/1113/1224258724414.html
Ah yes….some kind of Fruedian slip…
wills – your hopes are special and a good aspiration for sanity and well being however it is my opinion your war to tell the truth is fruitless .Nothing will happen no matter what effort you persist with .My personal pilgrimage to lay bare ruthless bankers who criminalised me when I was reporting a perceived crime in Bank of Ireland Dublin has shown that even afterwards with the assistance with Garda Chief Commissioner nothing happens other than a garda report to DPP and you are left to your own peril .I am a very lucky and successful person in life and it is sad that the permenant damage NAMA will do to every taxpayer will be a very painful one to most Irish Citizens .Crime is legal in Ireland -full stop.
John ALLEN –
My ‘war to tell the truth’ is moreso a concerted effort too restore our democracy as laid down in our constitution by our forefathers as they envisioned it to be for the future children of eire, which is me.
The bankers are one group who’ve co opted our democracy,
Corporate powers are another group who’ve co opted our democracy.
But our democracy still lives on in the constitution and in the hearts of freedom loving citizens.
So, the fight for a democratic republic continues as the baton has been passed over to another band of brothers to which i consider myself to be part off since 1980.
Democracy will have it’s final say in all of this and freedom will win out over power might and greed and i discern its going too happen in my life time and require a smidgen of patience and a lorry load of determination and alot of learning and out witting the Punks who’ve managed too over run the power centers.
John Allen – report it to Senator Shane Ross. And use contacts to get more information. And send that to Shane Ross also.
Now lookit. John etc, we can throw our hands up in the air or we can do something. Now forgive me for self referencing, but the suggestion I made above works even with NAMA in place. As least as far as I can see. The point in me saying that was not that it should be done, but that if someone like me can come up with some bonkers plan like that, then there must be other options in various domains that can really work. I suspect our host is recycling his idea in the same spirit.
John, I understand your feelings, but I certainly don’t share them. I think you might try to look beyond the local and immediate circumstances. I don’t feel that my time has been wasted here nor that I have somehow ‘failed’.
I think each of us individually has to be realistic about what we can achieve. We are not, nor were we ever, going to change things over which we have no control. Economics (and politics) is about the art of the possible. if you want to make a change, then find an idea, something achievable, how ever small it is, and run with it, make it happen. Trying to eat the whole elephant in one sitting and then giving up is the worst kind of failure.
I’m gonna stop now before I start to sound like some dipshit evangelical self-help guru, but I hope you see what I am getting at.
Sorry, the self-help guru has a gun to my head and is making me do this.
The point of failure is not that you have screwed up, its so that you learn to do it better the the next time around.
Folks, If it is signed by the President, it will not be til next week – still time, John ALLEN – and Liam is correct.
Experience on a Road Least Travelled –
Much of what is ahead is a very long dark un mapped road without directions, except ‘ a will to do’. A small light in the cold harsh wilderness and until it glows the winter becomes colder and isolates the mind .
Posters -
The Great global property POnzi swindle.
Run through the CDS service provided by AIG endless insurance made available for banking systems through out europe and USA to go beserk providing housing loans and manufacture of a gigantic debt.
The massive insurance pay out for the banks when the pyramid schemes collapses and AIG obliged to pay out the insurance to the banks done through the federal reserve massive xtra print run’s then shipping the dough out to the AIG client bankers.
Mystic Moments Ahead –
Cash Flow is liken to blood in the body without cash flow there is no business .When blood suddenly dries up the body turns blue and freezes up .In business it becomes bankrupt .
During the month of December we will experience two full moons once on the 1st Dec and the second on the 31st Dec .This is called a
‘ Blue Moon’ .
subscribe. This seems to be the only way the site will let me post………………….
Can someone explain to me why Brian Cowen is attending the 13th British-Irish summit in Jersey today while Gordon Brown is not? A meeting of the regions is it? In the middle of our greatest economic threat.
That is what republican means, Colin in exile. Sufficient self esteem to notice lackey behaviour in peers. Constant cow-towing to EU masters and an obvious diplomatic faux-pax here by An Taoiseach.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1113/bic.html
Here it can clearly be seen that Gordo is not at this meeting. http://www.thisisjersey.com/2009/11/12/20-senior-politicians-fly-in-for-british-irish-summit/
Mr Cowen should be at home keeping an eye on the abyss we approach AND DOING MORE and let our Tanaiste across to fraternise with the First Ministers of regions……….
Well, by golly, whataya know, that makes me a Republican too, and it makes Cowen & the entire FF parlimentary party Misunderstanders of Republicanism.
Ruairi it is just an excuse for Biffo to go down and enjoy a few pints of Mary Ann in peace and sure maybe pick up a few jewellery presents when he’s there.
But don’t worry I’d say they took the jet , so he’ll be back to support our boys in Green on Saturday.
Folks, remember when BL was upset with DMcW again (more garlic, please, before that big meanie, David, gets me!)
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/states-priority-is-helping-economy-not-the-developers-1716678.html
Tim: Lenihan makes some valid points here. How come David was asking him to rescind the bank guarantee that he had recommended to him on the night of the garlic cloves just seven months earlier? An explanation might be that in April David was dashing about like a blue-arsed fly, trying to keep all his balls in the air. Some of his articles back then showed signs of being rushed.
At least Lenihan has been consistent and predictable, which is the key to acceptable economic policy, regardless of its content. We have all been disappointed too by George Lee’s performance, who a few months back was the great white hope.
I think Burton understands the problem but she doesn’t inspire confidence with her often hestitant, moaning delivery.
Given the obvious ECB constraints he has to live with, for the moment I think the smart money is on Lenihan.
Malcolm McClure, I believe two factors were in play, at the time of DMcW’s flip-flop on the guarantee:
1) He realised how Cowen was distorting the originally benign idea; and
2) The unfortunate demise of DmcW’s Dad (who had suffered unemployment) and a “wake-up-call”, or eureka moment arose.
Folks, here is the IT visualisation of NAMA in digital form, from today’s paper:
http://www.irishtimes.com/focus/2009/nama-explained/index.pdf
Folks, Gerry will save us all. On Monday. Kick back and enjoy the weekend so, People of Ireland!
http://bit.ly/3ZSp9F
You know, when I got this from The Emergency, I read it with hope, until I saw the bit about the salvation-plan including: “Building Houses”.
Oh, Dear!
LOL, I read the press release and I see for some strange reason you didn’t leave a comment on it Tim !…..
Gerry and his hoods are the last shower we need as bad as FF/Greens are now.
But saying that , if a bank manager was giving out bad loans in Gerry’s bank …..that manager would be ‘sorted’ fairly fast !!
BrendanW, “…if a bank manager was giving out bad loans in Gerry’s bank …..that manager would be ’sorted’ fairly fast !!”
Exactly! (…. just, ya know….. the “building houses” bit kinda burst my “bubble”!).
Bacon this week pronounced a quarter of Irish hotel rooms should close, meaning the long term value of this segment of the toxic mess is worth nill.
Assumptions/gambles NAMA is based upon are even at this point unravelling!
Lenihan is a willing puppet of the bankers/DoF who got us into the mess. There again he’s consistent in favouring the elite, whether high earners, speculators, bankers
Right now he’s scrambling to come up with the formula to hit those with least clout while retaining perks for those who got us into the mess.
The problem for him is the power of the elite is waning in proportion to their losses. Its becoming more and more difficult for him to keep our blindfolds on and satisfy the elite at the same time.
All of this puppet behaviour shows a lack of vision and smarts that helped other economies out of similar crises e.g Sweden
The NAMA hedge fund based on future derivatives of long term economic value(e.g. zombie Section ZZZ hotels look less and less a good bet as every day goes by!
NAMA (Not Another Mess again) blindfolds will soon be off!
Time to see leprechauns with pots of gold in the grass for what they are:)
I went back to examine the 2006 census in more detail and decided to pick Leitrim for no particular reason, other than it was the smallest County in terms of population and houses etc.
Please do not be put off by some of the statistics I quote as I think they hold a mirror up to where we are in terms of how we go about our business.
On the night of the census (round figures) there were 10.5k houses occupied by some 28 k people, while at the same time there were about 4.5k houses /apartments unoccupied. Now more houses were built since that, and some more are in development at various stages although stalled at the moment. We know that places like Leitrim experience great losses during recessions due to emigration etc. We also know that while the North offers cheaper prices which helps, employment in the North does’nt offer wage levels, to sustain the level of mortgage repayments and other costs associated with living in Leitrim.
I then looked at the political landscape of Leitrim and found that it is represented through Sligo/Leitrim and Roscommon/Leitrim by a 50/50 split of FF and FG in the Dail. I then looked at Leitrim County Council and found that 18 of the 22 Councillors were either FF or FG, with 2 Indo’s. and 2 SF.
So back then 30% of the houses were empty and given what I would consider a fair assumption that this figure has probably increased due to later builds and emigration.
I also discovered that a large amount of Section 23 Tax incentives were given out during the boom to encourage development throughout the County.
Now to be fair to Leitrim from my little exposure to the place in terms of visits and general interaction, I found it to be a beautiful County, and was particularly taken by Carrick on Shannon and would gladly live there if I could support myself through gainful employment. The People have settled back to their usual charm now that things have settled across the Border and tensions have eased.
All that been said, I started to wonder what exactly the planners / politicians et al had in mind for Leitrim when drafting the County Development Plan and other Plans that would have been presented over the last number of years. What vision had all these well paid representatives for this County in terms of sustainable development i.e. employment, infrastructure, population growth, schools, hospitals etc. etc.???
On the plus side for Leitrim it is served by rail link to the Capital and has the N4 which will be completed to motorway status and of course the river Shannon which provides a great amenity for tourism etc.etc. I’m not sure as I have no figures for the overcapacity in the Hotel sector but it would be fair to assume that overcapacity exists. Again I’m not sure about the vacancy rates for commercial/ industrial sectors but suspect that empty buildings does exist.
What‘s to become of Leitrim in terms of “ we are where we are” “ no point in looking back “ “nobody seen it coming” “ and all these sound bites that pop up by design on the daily news bulletins. ???
Is Leitrim a good representative slice of Ireland as a whole.???
I have some opinions on the subject, but I’m interested in what the forum thinks about Leitrim as it does appear to represent an interesting little case study.
http://beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=76536
P.s As a follow on from the above post and having consulted Daft.ie etc. and with the aid of my back of envelope calculations it would appear that over 1 billion euros of empty accomodation exists at present, while I dont have any real data availeable for the hundreds of millions of euros that I’m sure exists in terms of commercial/industrial.
P.s. Again it goes without saying that these figures are very sobering indeed ,when you consider Leitrim is the smallest County.
Tull ; My take,
Empty house = what a country gets in a system built on economic rent seeking.
Price discovery mechanism blown apart so the market throw’s up bizarre and twisted scenarios.
One of which is the quantity of shelter in Ireland lying idly by while the price of rent reflects a shortage of housing.
Pass me the sick bucket please sir!
@ Wills thank you for highlighting that particular anomaly in Leitrim and Ireland of overpriced rents in a market over saturated in accomodation.If I could have your opinion as to why Taxpayers in Ireland subsidise private landlords to the tune of over half a billion euros each year ,I would most appreciate it.?
Tull – This susdising is the ‘tax allowance’ i believe if so here is my POV.
The ‘taxing’ system and it’s recurrent tax allowance anomalies resides in the fact that our economic system is an evolved mercantilist rent seeking system, and land holding and creation of rentier class through mortgage repaying or pure renting is a a mainstay of the systems preservation.
Tull McAdoo, Nice case-study. Leitrim is the quintescential celtic-tiger faux-pas.
One of the most scenically beautiful areas of the entire island, it is, however, one of the least accessible parts; thus the least serviced by commercial infrastructure.
It is, in fact, the absolute epitome of the celtic tiger economy: like Bangor-Erris, in Synge’s world, it is the current “centre-of-paralysis”.
Actually I think the term “world centre of paralysis” was actually invented by James Joyce.
And he was referring to the part of Dublin dominated by what were called “Castle Catholics”. People whose cheif characteristic was a tendency to suck up to authority and suck out of the general populace.
A kind of an urban professional, networking equivalent to the gombeen class.
Nice example to use Tull.
Leitrim is very like Kerry though. Ballinamore is very business focussed as is Carrick. They, like Kerry will survive because the native people don’t believe a word out of Dublin.
Incidentally, Louth is the “Wee County”.
@ Furrylugs ,Louth is indeed the “wee county” but not in terms of population as I outlined in my opening comment.I know it is often said that “all politics are local” but is it more Tribal and if so is it this Tribalism that poses the biggest barrier to change.?
Deco, you are correct. I was applying the term in a manner similar to that in which Yeats applied Joyce’s term, retrospectively, to Synge’s “Playboy”, in literary criticism. (Synge pre-dates Joyce).
Catholicism and infrastructural isolation paralysed the people of Bangor-Erris in “The Playboy of the Western World”.
All great Irish writers abhor this kind of paralysis, it seems.
Recently, though, we jettisoned “Catholicism” and replaced it with consumerism (Dundrum is the new “Cathederal”).
We replaced “Earn your bread by the sweat of your brow”, with “Earn your SUV and Champaigne by flipping property”; manufacturing, replaced by property-sales and productivity replaced by cheap credit.
You can “cut” for a while…… I remember, during the petrocrisis in the 1970s, my father would cut the engine in our car while going downhill; we coasted for a while, but, sooner or later, the engine has to be turned back on.
When will this government and society realise that and stop the “slash-and-burn-cuts” mentality?
@ Deco ,”castle catholics” like Seanie, Fingers,Linehan dynasty, ……need I go on?
@Tim ,I do notice that credit card holders etc. are well serviced from Carrick on Shannon through Bank of Americas purchase of MBNA, which created some direct and associated jobs.I believe the numbers employed run at just over 1 thousand.It also seems as though Carrick has become a centre for hen and stag parties from all over.p.s. Carrick has a population of just over 5k.
@Tull
The Tribal nuances of Kilgarvan and Ballingeary could be discussed at the Coom border some evening?
I have stated earlier in the year that there was a need for an intellectual revolution, if we were ever going to get out of this cathastrophe. And I have realised that it is in the interests of corporate Ireland that this never occurs, because it would make them very transparent.
And I have now realised, the power of corporate Ireland in making sure that there is no intellectual progress in Ireland – that we remain intellectually incapable of deciphering what is happening in our society. And even more hilariously, public sector union bosses are as committed as IBEC bosses to ensuring that the people are kept in a ‘sheeple’ status.
Today on the media there is saturation coverage to sport, and the X-factor. It is pure saturation level stuff.
Bread and circusses. Time to dissent an opt out. I think that there is an atmosphere being built up in this country that is primed at getting the dissenters to leave.
I think there is a need for a who is who in the Irish Media, politics, legal, business and how they are interconnected. Dots need to be joined.
One ought to start with supplying a ‘how to watch t.v’ tips for the dumbed down masses.
For example, do not watch tv with your head stuck in the television set.
Or, do not switch OFF your brain when you switch ON the television.
Or, when a ‘sexy ladyeeee’ comes on RELAX breath and count too 10.
That sort of stuff could do wonders…….!!!!
I laugh when you mention “Corporate” and Ireland in the one sentence. It assumes a level of intellectual development beyond gombeenism which has some similarity with “real” corporates.
Sheeples need professional managment to keep them that way. I am soory, I do not buy it. I see what is being attempted by the media and the nonsense spouted by the banks and our so-called government. But you know what? the divergence between the haves and have nots is now too noticeable and why oh why would anyone in their right mind bankroll a looney asylum…why?
They are guys whose ony method of interaction and group planning is in a galway tent around a few pints. Stop making these idiots out to be criminal geniuses…such people if they did exist, would find better ways of being criminal.
This is just a coverup. Nothing more! and the cover is about to be blown wide open.
I believe there are a small group who know exactly what they are doing.
We must not forget that the rich will stay rich regardless. Their standards of living will not be affected. It’s in the interests of those earning the likes of 600,000 EURO a year to keep things as they are.
RTE being a media organisation part funded by the licence fee, part funded by commercial interests love a good crisis. It makes people watch them.
Irish people are the stars of the Truman show
I think RTE should be dismantled and the highly paid puppets should lose their jobs and massive salaries
And now rte want more money..
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/rte-to-seek-increase-in-licence-fee-as-700-jobs-at-risk-1943965.html
In my opinion, they do not provide a good service to the people of Ireland, there independence is questionable as they rely on government to approve licence fee increases and yet they also have to run commercials.
Why does the EU allow state broadcasters – is it not against competition laws?
Tony- RTE are not there to provide a proper tv service for the peoples goodness of health. It is there to induce mind programming and trance like effects and dumbed downess and soporific brainwashing.
More info on RTE spending from Vincent Browne
http://www.thepost.ie/commentandanalysis/kennys-nemesis-should-have-aimed-his-fire-elsewhere-45609.html
David – I am reading your book at the moment – when I get a chance.
It is Excellent !!!!
Ditto.
The World in 2010 : quote ‘there is an outside chance it ( Ireland )could come up short tipping the country into default’.
Malcolm :
in REF too post 17.
D energies too diffused and BL’s energies right on his target.
The panel this week i think bad PR for D. Thus more energies diffused.
D needs to narrow his focus and keep it in the cross hairs.
Wills: Troubles multiply if ‘her indoors’ also gets caught up in the celebrity culture and starts egging him on. A young family needs protection if the spotlight falls on both parents. The attentions of the wealthy can be beguiling, but however kindly meant, can be devastating to one’s true objectives in life.
“come into my web said the spider to the fly”. Malcolm I think you overestimate Linehan and underestimate Cowen.Both have been groomed from youth to carry on the dynasties but Cowen is more tribal and has surrounded himself with fellow rural travellers.Linehan will do well to hold his seat at the next election, and could find himself drifting off the popularity charts ala Michael mc Dowell.
Posters -
‘world center of paralysis’, i think, maybe, irish men and their mammies!!!!!!!
Joke.
With the unions about to pull the plug, the failing safety valve of emmigration of our construction educated finding even harder to get jobs abroad than here etc. etc etc, I think / feel the place is about to become ungovernable. We are in IMF territory not becasue we have to but becasue a lot of twats are running the shop.
As for NAMA etc, I find it incredible that anyone with real wealth is going to bankroll this nonsense any more than they have to particularly if the rest of the world starts to pull out of recession. Again, more twatish behaviour. Really that simple.
Yes, we are going to have the usual self denial and building of one ponzi scheme on top of the next while the foundations crumble below…but it’s really like the a cartoon figure when they run off a cliff…sooner or later they will realise they are in midair and the natural laws take over.
Ireland, FF, FG and our political system and governance mechanisms are broken. They do not work for the 21st century.
This country is about to blow apart and every institution we know of today will be gone or seriously changed.
Philip – But the usurious central banking system framework inside which the POnzi scams are invoked still holds solid.
How? Where is it getting the cash? from whom? No, it’s no more than running up a ladder whose bottom has fallen off.
Philip, it is getting the cash from the ECB, on the sly, just like the big LIE that is the Spanish economy, at the moment.
…. and, I found out today that someone is STILL advertising a house in Ailsebury for €2.5 million!
Ugh!
Tim, being sly with dealings with the ECB…that’s like a 2 yr old being sly with a teenager!
The Spanish crisis is proportionately smaller than our own. We are the ones with the most tanked economy. We are like the guy who fell out of a building and was asked…how are you?…I’m fine so far….
.
A lot of the money is sloshing around in something called the “Carry Trade” Phillip.
Explanation here;
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp
And this is where the “W” dip will start.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6916515.ece
I’m just waiting for David to comment on this because all the usual suspects bar he who warned of the credit crunch have sounded loud warning bells. It’s why stock markets are recovering while the real economy is stagnant.
If this hits, funding will dry up and our resident geniuses will have to rob the NTMA Pension Reserve to recapitalise AIB & BOI thereby stealing any emergency surplus the Government have.
Any further comment from the more astute economists among us?
F
Furrylugs, sure, they have already robbed that fund of €11 Billion (or was it €13?).
Either way, they have already done it and there are only about 7 or 9 billions left in the fund;
Not enough to “Recapitalise” further.
The scheme will not work. Look at that thing I said earlier about the house for sale in Aislsebury for 2.5 million: what bank will loan that money? NONE.
So, the NAMA plan to re-inflate the bubble will not work, especially while we are giving money to the banks – if they have life-support, there is no need for them to take risks by lending; especially not a risk as big as loaning someone 2.5 million for a house that THEY KNOW is worth less than 1 million.
There are 2 problems that are going to present themselves shortly…
1) NAMA/ ECB funding and the SPV/off-exchequer balance sheet seem like childish tricks to con an international community to buying bonds courtesy of zero interest dollars…and the story goes, we here in Ireland are a bigger attraction cos we offer higher yields. Sorry- do not buy it. We are very very high risk and ECB bankrolling is a Euro stabilising exercise that is coming to an end.
2) We are cooked either way fi carry trading is the international funding source. US interest rates climb and our bonds will need to have a higher yield. Dollar bombs and money dries up. It’s a W no matter what we/they do.
This is why I believe mutiny is in the air cos the lads have no toys for anyone this christmas…none at all. This is a cockup and there is no way out except the next airyplane outta here for FF and the Lads! I can see these guys in court and I think BL is trying to avoid this more than anything else.
@Furrylugs. how about the carry trade closer to home ,when the banks start trading SPV Bonds, think about the interest rate differentials.!!!!!!!!
I am copying from Gurdiev’s True Economics latest (14/11/09) here…”Now, the story of our economic downturn is very much in full view – productive part of domestic economy (non-financial corporations and households and financial sector) is in deep retreat. Non-productive public deficit financing of state consumption is swinging into positive. Also, note that household contribution fall off is pretty much in line with financial sector fall off. This is indicative of the fact that (as I have argued consistently before) our financial crisis was not caused by external forces of credit crunch, but by internal mountains of bad debts accumulated by corporates and households.”
Says it all. All our fault! We have cabbages running the shop.
Agreed – the private banks provided the noose for the greedy and mislead to hang ‘emselves high.
And the debt bubbles are put into refridgeration and the banking syndicates dream up a new financial POnzzi scam.
As for BL and his garlic munching….if he has a blood pressure problem (which seems likely by the look of his and his stress) he’s using garlic because he’s listening to some mumbo jumbo alternative medicine nonsense. Let’s say, a guy like that is one to look to mumbo jumbo before getting a professional and objective.
agreed – but BL’s energies are calibrated and focussed so he stays in the driven seat.
BL’s energies is to stay out of jail or at least keep his colleagues out of it.. I believe the level of stuff he has seen going on has frightened him. He is trying to get back to running a good shop but it’s too late.
Tull McAdoo: You suggest that Lenihan is just a puppet and DOF is pulling the strings. Okay then, let’s pull some of these supposed puppet masters out of the shadows into the sunlight.
The DOF under Secretary David Doyle has four divisions, three of which are mere bean counters. The power lies in the Sectoral Policy Division under Secretary General Jim O’Brien and second Secretary General Donal McNally. Also in the department (at least until recently) are John Thompson, Colm Breslin and Pat Murphy.
See for instance:
http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/public%20expenditure/2009/Educatletter.pdf
According to your thesis, these men have a lot to answer for as Cowen and Lenihan are in thrall to them and to the wealthy people who are backing them. And they were in the driving seat when the economy crashed.
I think your thesis is rubbish but am willing to be persuaded by something concrete to the contrary that reliable sources know about these ‘grey eminences’.
Do think for one moment that Linehan knows the first thing about derivatives or how Anglo lost 750 million a few months back trading in derivatives etc. or the minefield that is their personal loan book. Linehan is only a bag-man for the vested interests,their hired brief and mouthpiece.Cowen pulls Linehan’s strings,always has.
Tull _ one who holds the power, in this case BL, is not required to be in possession of all the facts.
This is what makes it alot more difficult for David to surmount the challenge of boxing fast back, david is fighting fair so the rules are more complex and onerous, D is fighting too queensbury rules.
BL is a hustler, a street fighter, so the prerequisites are alot less and very unsophisticated, so it’s easier to be in the driving seat pushing down on the raw nerve of power.
Hence what i think Malcolms post back at 17 was getting at, D need’s, must box clever too out do his opponent.
And his opponent is NAMA and the fight is to stop NAMA.
If David fails to stop NAMA i reckon this will be a major regret for him in the future and for the nation as a whole as ive made clear over and over.
@Wills .Linehan is just another Receptionist trained in by the DOF and spouting their scripts while at the same time waiting for the nod of approval from Cowen who is far better tuned in to vested interests and spin doctors of the real power elites.Look at all the times Linehan was caught out when he drifted off script,and let slip clues to what the Final Solution was to be.David is at His best when he looks past the distracting puppet Linehan and starts to focus on the puppet masters.Follow the money and forget about Linehan.Linehan is disposable, and he knows that.Remember it was Cowen who was meeting Anglo when their stock was been shorted. It was Cowen who drew the line under Anglo and the systemic guarantee when Linehan was floundering about.Cowen is getting his card marked by the real powers and knows from past experience how the DOF and Central Bank are liable to react and how to sidestep the system.Linehan would’nt have devised that SPV if he was there for 20 years,as he too is only been drip fed as needs be.Remember Wills that with the sort of money were talking about, these people would crash the Economy before they would recognise any of their losses.They would undermine the Economy in the full knowledge that they would be the last to starve, and that is a very dangerous force to overcome.
Tull – Yes i would agree with all of those points.
Just to be clear, i see NAMA and BL all part of the same anti democratic forces at work behind the veneer of democracy.
BL, BC, Bankers, ANIB, wholesale money market flows/ city of london/ecb/BIS-
A plutocracy.
Back on homeland, BL, BC, HArney, etc are a hired gang by the money makers to man the switch.
How complicit each ‘hired hand’ is is down to their own individual culpability.
I think Malcolms words on this important. BL may not necessarily be any more culpable than any other. Or, BL maybe a double agent for truth.
So, i agree D must pick his opponent wisely.
And, in my post i determine the opponent TO – DAY is NAMA.
D must do all he can to run NAMA off the tracks.
Hmm. There’s an idea.
(Patriotic thinking cap on)
Could we short the SPV??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6EeX1VZ4wA
Folks, Here we go!
Do you think you could find soomething positive for our Govt to spend €300,000 on at the moment? Yes? Well, here’s what they think of your idea:
The Army is being given 300k worth of riot-gear-upgrades:
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/8364300000-spent-on-irish-army-riot-kit-1943964.html
I wonder why…………
Hmmmmmm?
What is included in this bit of spin is the praise our fellow citizens received from KFOR when containing riots in shome forren land, lest anyone question the capability.
Carrot and Stick story.
Folks, Kerrigan is spot-on here, again; the current policies are driving the deficit and unemployment upwards, just as Taft, Gourdgieve, Morgan and Lucey said the would:
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/gene-kerrigan/gene-kerrigan-destroying-the-economy-in-bid-to-save-it-1943915.html
Tim -
Kerrigan’s dissection is truth lacerating right on target.
Coupla things come to mind.
First: Kerrigan needs to drop the ‘aghastness’ and ‘can you believe it’ theme and move on to the next port of call which is doing a forensic analysis as to why this implosion of the middle class and real economy and deepening chasm between haves and haves not is taking place.
Second: The commentators et all must step up on the journalism and call truth too power and expose why all of this destruction is now underway, the real reasons.
Here’s a link, if it really is D’s, the mind boggles.
http://www.herald.ie/entertainment/hq/7-days-in-the-life-of-david-mcwilliams-1940569.html
wills, its a skit; they are having-a-go at him.
Its back to reading the book, for me.
Incidentally, I do not like or a gree with the “Steak and chips” theory: that, once we were able to borrow the euro, our competitiveness went out the window and our prices rose sharply, relative to Spain and other countries.
The fact is, IMMEDIATELY upon entering the euro, it was blatently obvious that we had been getting screwed by higher prices here all along; the removal of exchange-rates and commission charges simply bared the naked truth, rather than causing it.
That seems perfectly rational too me tim.
Only that the access too larger borrowing capacity brings too light a childishness about a personage.
I would not give a credit card to a teenager if i as the father had to pay the bill.
Ireland is not mature culturally and free market competition as the way to conduct business is inexistent, across europe a little more evident.
Monty python economics.
1 – The public sector payroll 20 Billion
2 – Social Welfare spending 21 Billion
3 – Non – pay programmes 15 Billion
4 – Public Investment 7 Billion
A friend from Latvia told me the country is in a slightly worse sh*t state than Ireland.
They have their own currency but wont do the proper thing to get out of it-devalue.
Teachers wages have been cut by 60 yes thats SIXTY percent.´
Ireland will have to implode before it begins anew: looks like that is now beginning:
http://www.thepost.ie/news/blue-flu-threat-as-public-sector-workers-prepare-for-walkout-45676.html
Deco – RTE’s vital need too deliver the sheeples hypnosis for the coporate interests highlighted at this link.
http://www.thepost.ie/commentandanalysis/kennys-nemesis-should-have-aimed-his-fire-elsewhere-45609.html
If people want to change how Ireland is governed, then I suggest the following:
1. Stop drinking. Do not buy Alcohol. It will deal a serious blow to the publican party. It will also have the side effect of you being healthier and having more money in your pocket
2. Stop smoking. Again, hits the government where it hurts most – their pockets.
3. Do not strike, teachers striking harms kids education. Gardai striking lets the criminals off the hook. Nurses striking hurts the sick. It also would lessen the influence of the unions – and considering the damaging impact they have had on Ireland with their social partnership – surely that’s got to be a good thing
4. Get in your car only when absolutely necessary, get on your bike to work etc. Again, less travel means less duty for the government. The environment and your pocket will benefit.
5. Turn off RTE (both TV and Radio), if they have no audience, then they are finished.
6. Turn off TodayFM and Newstalk.
7. Do not read Irish Times.
8. Selectively read Irish Independent.
9. Get your teeth done in the North. Consider other countries for elective surgery.
10. Do not buy or sell property. No stamp duty or capital gains for government. Rent. Owning a house ties you down and the interest paid to the banks is equivalent to interest on a mortgage (except you don’t get to own it in 30 years time – but you are free)
11. Do not buy lottery tickets. Chances are you will lose. It’s a tax on the poor. Less revenue for Government
12. Do not gamble – another tax on the poor. Again, chances are you will lose. But no cash goes to Government
13. Do not fly Ryanair – no taxes and charges to the government. No money goes to Mr O’Leary. He has shown what he does with money by supporting Lisbon. He apparently also thinks that Ireland is better off ruled by the EU
Now, other corrective action which will help everyone
1. Grow your own vegtables, herbs etc or buy off local farmers. Lessen influence of multi national grocers
2. Cook your own food, do not eat processed rubbish created by multinationals. Do not drink fizzy drinks.
3. Keep learning and share knowledge
4. Do all you can to ensure most of the current crop of politicians never get elected again.
5. Exit out of private pension schemes, they waste money on the stock market anyway. Move money invested in stocks into gold or deposits
6. Remember that Immigration is not going to work out for everyone. Some vulnerable young Irish people will end up on the streets when they try to create a new life somewhere else, it’s not easy moving to a new country and trying to get work. This is a tragedy. Cowen, Lenihan etc concentrate on bailing out their buddies and ignore need to employment for ordinary Irish people. Their greed driven unimaginative spineless approach to running the economy to blame.
7. Where there is a will, there is a way
Yes, this is a terrible issue for the individuals involved.
But it is also an issue for the wider economy with reduced consumption, lower incentive in invest in real-estate, poor labour force mobility, and increased provisions/potential losses for the financial industry.
Please visit the social network Reset2010.ning.com if you want to lobby govt about the issue of negative equity.