We are limbering up for a scrap with ourselves

October 21, 2009


As the 10.50 train from Galway to Dublin pulls out of a rainy Tullamore, it is difficult not to conclude that the country is in a garrulous and angry mood. My neighbour — a middle-aged woman with grown-up children — has just got off but she was livid, venting spleen since we left the fields of Athenry.

Her predicament is not unfamiliar. Her children are in negative equity. She focused on a book I had published two years ago called ‘The Generation Game’ which foretold of a generation — the “Juggler Generation” — people in their 20s and 30s who would be the main victims of the coming housing bust, which had yet to materialise.

What I had failed to appreciate fully back then is just how impossible it is to separate the generations in Ireland. We are all in this together now. When one generation loses out, so too do all the members of their family, usually, beginning with the person who worries most about everything, the Mammy.

This was not the first such experience of people’s anger I have had in the past 48 hours. On Sunday night, I got the train to Cork and had a similar experience and on Monday, after working in Cork in the morning, I hopped on the City Link bus to Galway. There is no train from Cork to Galway — a point that the American opposite me on the Dublin-Galway train couldn’t get her head around.

But not to worry because the bus is a fine and cheap way to travel between Cork and Galway, equipped with WiFi and comfy seats and the most jovial driver I’ve had the pleasure of meeting for a while. The bus is full of pensioners, students and Poles. By the time the 2pm City Link to Galway was in Mallow, a few students had struck up a chat with me. We talked about all sorts, the world, Ireland, the economy and of course, what they were going to do when they left UCG.

They too were angry and like the mother on the train, they were angry in a misdirected way. They knew something was wrong and they feared for the future, but they didn’t quite know who was responsible. Who was to blame? Was it the banks, the politicians, the landlords, the builders, the public sector, the private sector, the immigrants?

On Monday night, the television similarly featured people who thought they had been had. In reality, at the root of a lot of this anger lies personal responsibility because no one forced anyone to do anything. But that said, I do share sympathy for people who got into the property market late, not least because the State did everything in its power, bar coercion, to push people onto the ladder. In this lamentable venture, our politicians were aiding their friends in the banks who we are now bailing out. The simple circularity of this argument is what pisses the average person off more than anything else.

The mother on the train asked me why, if there was a NAMA for the banks, couldn’t there be a NAMA for the people? Fair question and in financial terms there seems to be no reason to favour one sector over another. In fact, if you are going to borrow money to bail out rich bank creditors, why not bail out out struggling bank debtors?

This column argued last year that once you start deviating from the basic capitalist principle of risk and return by protecting bank creditors from the stupidity of their own decisions, via NAMA, then it is hard to know where to stop. If the bond investors who took a punt on AIB or BoI did so for precisely the same reasons as the first-time buyer, should they not be treated equally? Both the creditors and the first-time buyers assessed the information they had and made a financial decision which turned out to be catastrophic.

The professional bond investors believed the hype that the Irish banks could grow and grow based on a rocketing housing market and the first-time buyer believed the hype that the housing market would continue to grow and grow based on the rocketing banking sector. The creditors and the first-time buyers are different sides of the same coin. Yet the State has decided to bail out one side and in so doing, given the other side a legitimate cause for anger, which is festering contagiously.

The Government seems to think that if it shafts the bank creditors they won’t be around next time when the State comes looking for money. The State knows that the citizens have nowhere to go, so if they shaft us now, we’ll still be around next time. It is a simple, if devious calculation but in so doing, our Government has turned the iron rule of capitalism on its head and also undermined its own political legitimacy.

The idea that bond markets would close in the case of a deal with a bank’s creditors is a dreadful misunderstanding of the way the financial markets work. Financial markets are always forward looking which is why some of the investors buying Bank of Ireland stock today are the same people who lost their shirts on the same stock last year.

In contrast to the financial markets, which are forward looking, the electorate is backward looking. We have memories and while we can’t disappear like bond creditors, we can exercise a democratic mandate.

This is where this misdirected anger on the bus, on the train and in the bar is worrying. Because the Government, through farces like NAMA, is destroying the credibility of all party politics as we know it. It is destroying the centre.

With so many people, rightly or wrongly, feeling betrayed and hard done by, the chances of a lurch in politics cannot be ruled out. Thus far, we have been extremely tolerant, some might say even docile in the face of the unraveling of our economy. Will this last?

Who is to say a messianic leader will not emerge in the next year or so to harness all this anger?

At the moment the false dichotomy of “public versus private sector” is being exploited by all sides. But there are no distinct lines in Ireland. Most families are made up of gardai and nurses as well as small business people and employees of large private sector companies. It’s not as easy as one side against each other. That’s not how this country works. So, in truth, we are limbering up for a monumental scrap with ourselves.

As the anger mounts and the body politic atrophies, the only question, as Yeats posed 100 years ago, is whether the centre can hold?




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206 Comments. Most recent comments first.
  1. Original-Ed says:

    Today’s Times on IMF, ECB and NAMA – scary !

    It’s time to book your ringside seat for the great Irish economic implosion – never before and never again will you witness such a spectacular piece of ingenuity.

    “When Nama is up and running, the banks will be able to borrow far greater amounts from the ECB. Some of this money may be lent to the private sector (one hopes), but it is likely that substantial funds will be made available to the Government to finance the budget deficit.”

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1022/1224257225812.html

  2. jkforde says:

    Good article in NewScientist today on post-GDP metrics

    http://tinyurl.com/ylsefre

  3. mickoc says:

    The comment from Liam above is spot on.

    It appears to be true that Irish people really only care when they are losing their piece of the pie.

    How are the ruling classes allowed to privatise the profits and socialise the losses?

    The real shame is we have so little control over what happens. As others have said the state broadcaster is compromised.

    David, I agree with the other posters that while your articles are a breath of fresh air there needs to be more of an urgency in your cry for leadership.

    If NAMA does go through we will need to start preparing NOW for form a party who has a chance of turning this around at the next election. David should be spearheading the revolution.

  4. wills says:

    The class ‘brown nose’s’ and ‘suck up’s’ DMcw’s article shout’s out and shames, the crew looting the republic of Ireland, the gang of shifty shysters juggernauting NAMA through the ex- POnzi Republic to fleece the worker taxpayer to cough up the monies to pay for cost of their engineered property bubble aftermath they must be called out for what they are attempting to do next.

    What’s next..? What are they doing next to ensure NAMA get’s through. What is the crooked game underway NOW that’s making sure NAMA get’s through by these crooked gangster criminal syndicates.

    DmcW’s articles have caught up with the crooks criminal scheme NAMA and the reality and facts relating to NAMA now are receiving simple easy to understand exacting postcard scripts, going nationwide, and the more DmcW’s breaks it down in such an accessible way as to the NAMA scam and it’s high jinks and cunning game of hoodwinking the word will spread out and huge numbers will become sussed on the NAMA scam and spread the word and a gathering momentum will rise up against the matrix of lies and stop this tyranny in it;s tracks, kill it stone dead.

    Now’s the chance to leap ahead of the criminal syndicates pinky and the brain NAMA hair brained scam and break it down into the lies and scamming that it really is as it’s forced through the political process into existence.

    The white school boy’s club, gangsters white colllar criminals, experts in lying and convincing the populace into believing they should take the cut’s to pay for the banking gambling gang busters free for all piracy pillaging of the taxpayers funds.

  5. wills says:

    It’s all about driving down wages with the power elite crook’s ramming NAMA through ex Ponzi Republic,

    It’s all about creating the precedences to get away with imposing new taxation in the next stage of sharecropping the taxpayer serf class.

    It’s all about hoovering up the wealth, sucking it all up, fleecing it all off the backs of the labours of sharecropper taxpayer serfdom.

    Sucking the ‘working man’ dry of his well earned income, taking it off him in his face without his consent, shafting him to pay for the POnzi property bubble aftermath clean up bill that the banking criminal syndicate are blaming on the common man.

    But, not every hard working person bought into the POnzi property bubble scam. A huge % of the populace just kept out of it and got on with their working day planning for the future, paying their bill’s, living a balanced spend what you earn decent life. This constituency, ‘the spend as you earn’ constituency are not responsible for the dire straits the POnzi property speculators have put the economy in. They are not obligated to pay one dime for to fix the problems that are all originating from the POnzi property bubble scam.

    NAMA make’s the ‘spend as you earn’ constituency cough up the monies to pay for the drunk at bar’s tab. NAMA forces it on the working man to pay the tab. It is state coercion. It is tyranny in broad day light been attempted on the hard working peoples of Ireland and to roll over and do as NAMA orders one to do is been silent when silence invites more tyranny on an even greater magnitude.

  6. wills says:

    The ‘spend as you earn constituency’ are not responsible for breaking the irish economy.

    The ‘spend as you earn constituency’ do not owe gambling bills.

    The ‘spend as you earn constituency’ whom ever they are, where ever they reside, where ever the provide their labours for reward are been put slap bang into the middle of this economic meltdown and forced by government tyranny taxation without representation to pay off the cost’s ratcheted up by the gamblers, schemers, gamers, bankers, speculators, criminals, crony’s easy money scams blow out, the hard working spend as you earn citizens are been forced to pay for the aftermath.

    The; spend as you earn’ citizens are NOT responsible, are NOT obligated to pay scammers scams blowing up even if the scammers are bankers or suits and ties or uni educated or fancy panced or smooth talking with all the jazz, or hushed toned officials or whatever they represent themselves to be, the bottom line is the citizens who worked hard, paid their taxes, lived within their means no matter what wage they earn or how they earn it once it’s within accepted society norm’s are in no way obligated or bound or whatever way one wants to term it, should pay one dime for the problems caused by the POnzi racket merchants.

  7. wills says:

    The ‘scammers’ HATE with a seething rage the dutiful citizen who stand’s by their obligations and saves and spends what they earn and live within their means.

    The ‘scammers’ want to puke when they see the ‘spend as you earn’ citizen living a full life in well being enjoying life. they want to grab it and smash into pieces.

    The ‘scammers’ HATE the fact that NOT everyone went to the trough and made themselves sick as a dog on easy credit, they HATE the fact that there are citizens who stuck by principle and restraint and lived a life of responsibility.

    NAMA is a way for the scammers to GET at the ‘spend earners’ and pull them into their barrel of sh!te and fix them well and good.

    This is why the cr@p on about ‘we are all in this together’ cos they want to delude themselves that every single person grossed out on easy credit cos it makes them feel better about their half assed laizy way of living life.

    I

    • wills says:

      …… as they reef every man woman and child into the barrel of NAMA sh1te and convince themselves that we all are scammers, we all whooped it up, we all took advantage of easy credit and engaged in vice, we all did it and the scammers assert, they insist upon, that anyone who shouts back hey i didn’t live beyond my means hey i lived spend as you earn life and i’m not going to pay for NAMA, i’m not agreeing to going into the NAMA barrel of sh1te, the scammers will do what….. to them….?

      • wills says:

        ..and they talk about the public sector over pay and the social welfare over pay and the child benefit over pay and the old age pensioners over pay and that we are all so lucky with what we have and it’s time to give some of it back, and we all have to rake a hit, and we are all gulity, and we all must take a cut, and we must all acknowledge that all of us have to make the sacrifice and that we all this amd we all that and we all the other,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

        Well i say, ‘we all’ is a pile of horse manure. “We all’ is a big fat lie.

        We all means that the ‘spend earners’ are been rolled out too pay for the scammers mistakes that’s what the we all means.

        There are responsible citizens working in all sectors and not one of them irrespective of whatever wage they earn, or pension they are entitled too are obligated to cough up one dime for the scammers scams up.

        • Malcolm McClure says:

          Wills; The posts above show that you spent at least two hours composing an almost unparalleled stream of invective and vituperation. I hope that now you have got that off your chest, you will return to the calm, rational tone of debate that you had been adopting recently. Best wishes for a quick recovery.

  8. Tim says:

    wills, I confess myself to be a “spend as you earn” citizen.

    I do have a mortgage, yes; so not entirely.

    However, my mortgage is small, because I bought my home (not a house, not a “rung-on-the-property-ladder) in 1994, before the madness happened.

    I am lucky – I know that. (6 months after my purchase, it’s price rose above my reach).

    2 and a half times income was the maximum one could borrow as a mortgage; I borrowed 45,900.

    So 18,360 was my income, after 8 years working.

    But that was in “punts” and then they confused us and changed things and raised prices by switching to the Euro.

    I am not in “Negative Equity”, but it would not matter if I were. I have no intention of selling. It is my home, not an “investment”.

    The problem that I have is this: I have little or no discretionary spending. So the private sector businesses around me will get no business from me. The impending budget is promising to take much more than the 500 euro per month extra than is being taken now.

    What private sector companies will receive money from my pay-cheque after that cut?

    Meanwhile, QUINN has adverts on TV costing thousands and the Golden Ten have gone to ground.

    • wills says:

      tim, i reckon savers who use credit in a balanced way are most definitely ‘spend as one earns’ citizens.

      Using credit in it’s utility function.

  9. daved says:

    Who cares if the ‘centre can’t hold’? I for one have had enough of one dimensional politics. This is a unique opportunity for reassertion of government power. Don’t the Chinese do it well?

    • Ruairi says:

      The Chinese do VERY well. THeir $600m stimulus plan was rolled directly out to companies via Chinese government owned banks. We have that opportunity here. Anglo Irish Bank could take over the international trade desks of banks that are denying Irish exporting companies vital blood supplies.

      In Sept 08, when the crisis hit, international shipping almost came to a stop. If international credit systems fall, international trade falls.

      At least China gets socialism for the poor. And knows what a state bank is supposed to do. And why a state exists. They’re far from perfect, but then neither are we.

      • Alan42 says:

        The Chinese government is about as socialist as Mrs Thatcher .
        Take a trip to Beijing or Shanghai and you will find the greatest shrines to capitalism you will ever see .
        They have taken the oppression part of communism and added in 110 % capitalism .
        You can get nowhere in China unless you are very well connected to the party .

        • Ruairi says:

          They are both in the eastern provinces of China. Its a big place Alan42……
          The Chinese government is using strategic thinking (as always) to run short games and long games. In the West, (yes the party holds sway all over, but they do here also Alan42) its very clear how they have used the $600m stimulus to keep China moving and offset the temporary downturns that they experienced in production.
          China has more middle-class ‘spending power’ (as in expressed spending not pent-up spending power) than the whole of western Europe.

  10. Tim says:

    I think that David is above the rubbish of the “Earns & Young” crappy awards tonight and I say, again, that I am saddened to see him involved with it.

    • Ruairi says:

      Tim, I haven’t much time for Ernst & Young and I presume that’s what you’re referring to? That sponsorship?

      But the awards themselves are vital and worthwhile. I have always enjoyed watching fellow triers having a go and sometimes defying the odds.

      I also think that any exposure David gets is good exposure to our comments.

      Can you explain your grievance?

      • Tim says:

        Ruairi, you understood correctly, with the sposorship.

        Of course, I think that entrepreneurs should be celebrated, too.

        But I think that the person who keeps the business running for a generation or two, without making billions, or millions, should be applauded. These awards seem to go to the “big-boys”, again,

        Even if their “business” is only running for a few years, as long as they make millions in “profits”, they are feted.

        I still celebrate my friend, who runs a glass company in my town for the last 29 years; providing a reasonable living for himself, his brother and two other families.

        He is my hero; His business is what all business should be.

        My accolade goes to him.

        I hope that explains, adequately, Ruairi; but I will understand if it does not, and am willing to try again.

        • Ruairi says:

          Hi Tim,

          agreed re the sponsorship.

          But these awards are also for social entrepreneurs (of sorts) such as Tony Scott and the Young Scientists competition.

          “Even if their “business” is only running for a few years, as long as they make millions in “profits”, they are feted.Even if their “business” is only running for a few years, as long as they make millions in “profits”, they are feted.”

          Tim, we NEED the domestic economy. But we also need the companies that become leviathans out of nowhere. Worldbeaters. Possibly crushers of other companies. But that’s capitalism. If we could turn Greencore into Nokia, we should.
          Lifestyle businesses are fine, and fit within the lifecycle of certain products / processes. But they are very prone to interrupts such as being made obsolete etc etc.
          All entrepreneurs are worthwhile. I think we sometimes associate entrepreneur with pure greed. It doesn’t have to be that way. Anyone who studies Guinness or Ford can see how the ideology of the owner pervaded right through the company. These ideologues are what society needs, not the filthy moneycounters which is what most of our developers were.
          I applaud your friend. Their work is Herculean. But in order to prosper, we must learn how to serve the international demand of the new middle classes; China, India, Brazil etc.

          • Alan42 says:

            How do we serve the demand of China ?
            China is in the middle of an industrail revolution . Millions are moving off the land and into the Cities .
            The new middle class are not spenders . Chinese people are obsessed with numbers and money and most of all saving . They are natural business people . And every single Chinese person is business minded .
            When it comes to business I think the Chinese are even tougher than the Jews . They keep everything inhouse .
            With the Chinese its you buy from them and not the other way around .
            It will be a great mind that can figure out something that the Chinese would not do for themselves .

        • Alan42 says:

          Tim , are you sure that you are not a Socialist ?

    • liam says:

      Tim,

      McWilliams is free to do whatever he wants, we don’t own him. I’m also with Ruari on this, and I see no contradiction between McWilliams’ position as expressed here and attending an event intended to promote entrepreneurship, regardless of who the corporate sponsor is. There is nothing ‘crappy’ about encouraging people to cultivate their ideas, regardless of the context.

      I think you are making a distinction between two types of profit: The first is where a producer charges based on costs + margin. The second is where the producer charges based on the willingness of the purchaser to pay, regardless of production cost. Am I right in assuming that you object to the second model?

      If so you are not a socialist, you are an outright Marxist! :)

      It also sounds like more of the blame-game (its all the fault of corporates etc). Lets not forget that everything, including responsibility for regulating markets so that they are genuinely free and competitive, and limiting profiteering with anti-monopoly legislation, falls at the feet of government.

  11. John ALLEN says:

    Damage Limitation Exercise

    ErNST & Yunger have to climb up from the bottom of a black vortex pit .They need to chant their new songs ‘ it’s a long way from anglo irish …..it’s a long way to go…..it’s long way ………

  12. Deco says:

    Ernst & Dung.

    Really this is the typical schitzo message you get from big companies who engage in all sors of funny business. (Like Auditing Anglo Irish Bank for eight years in a row and missing important details-maybe the auditors were enjoying themselves with champers when they should have been poking their noses into every nook and cranny).

    And then they get loads of positive publicity from RTE/Irish Times/Indo Group on the basis that they are going to buy advertising space from the media, and get positive reinforcement publicity in return.

    We are wising up to all this sort of stuff.

    I just wonder were any members of the “tax diaspora” present ? ….Dinny, Mr. Hewson and his chums, Sir Anthony, the three amigos…..

    • Tim says:

      Deco, I love that: “Ernst & Dung”!

      I think, while the Gardai are investigating matters at ANGLO, they should be, simultaneously, investigating the Auditors.

      I have come across bad auditing before, where the auditors of a certain trade union “failed” to discover that the gen.sec. had been triple and quadruple claiming his expenses for years. A private-sector employee of the union members, stealing the members’ hard-earned subs!

      I do not trust any auditors; and I do not trust any trade union general secretaries.

      They will put on a show in the media to fool the members, but they are “in-on-it” with the employers (govt, ibec, sme), all with their snouts in the trough, and they sell-out their members all the time to keep their snouts in it.

  13. John ALLEN says:

    Deco:

    Impostors should carry a government warning …..er….I forgot currently the de de deputies are impostors too ….where does that leave us?

  14. John ALLEN says:

    Deco :

    Dont forget that had Ei Ei Oh Auditors of anglo found drugs movements around the offices of the bank their professional remit does not imply that they report that to Directors or Shareholders ….and least of all The Drug Squad.
    It makes one wonder why the price for drugs are high and in demand in Dublin. Also there is much concealment of facts in the bank that are not yet out in the domain yet.
    It will be interesting to see how the partners share the blame for their negligence…..and can the taxpayers make a claim against them personally.

  15. Indy says:

    I can’t get my head around ECB, IMF, NAMA …
    I read this blog to see if some of the opinions expressed will enlighten me, even a little…
    I still know nothing about stocks, bonds, derivatives, futures, shares…

    Yesterday, I was trying to explain to my little boy about ‘sharing’ with his sister/friends. It’s a hard concept for a small child to understand.

    You go to a friend’s house, and you can ‘share’ their toys – until it’s time to go home. Then you have to give them back.

    On the other hand, you get sweets and ‘share’ them with your friends, AND THEY EAT THEM !

    I wonder – was this explained adequately to the people who are making decisions, that my little boy will be living with when he’s explaining the concept to his grandchild?

    • liam says:

      Indy, try searching the archives for NAMA, or just ask any question you have, I’m sure somebody will offer a reply.

      The concept of sharing is as alien to the current Irish “Government” as calculus is to your little lad.

  16. Ruairi says:

    Quoting Alan42 above as their was no Reply link: -

    “How do we serve the demand of China ?
    China is in the middle of an industrail revolution . Millions are moving off the land and into the Cities .
    The new middle class are not spenders . Chinese people are obsessed with numbers and money and most of all saving . They are natural business people . And every single Chinese person is business minded .
    When it comes to business I think the Chinese are even tougher than the Jews . They keep everything inhouse .
    With the Chinese its you buy from them and not the other way around .
    It will be a great mind that can figure out something that the Chinese would not do for themselves .”

    China has more middle-class ‘spending power’ (as in expressed spending not pent-up spending power) than the whole of western Europe, as I said above Alan42. China has purchased more cars in the last few months than Americans have. And just in case you are also unaware of the trend, Chinese are buying up Mercs, Audis, BMWs etc etc in addition to their own cars. Any company who is anybody in the West is opening up in China to avail of their ‘spending’. This is a simple fact.
    Of course given time, they will turn to prestige products of their own, but not for now. Despite China’s powerful industrial machine, the world still turns to Germany for quality and substance. And yes, they are a lot dearer. So I don’t buy mary Harney’s version of the foodchain whereby we occupy the top and the silly hardworking Chinese occupy the bottom. I also don’t buy your version whereby we are all doomed. Resistance is futile Alan42, eh? That is so defeatist that its depressing to read.
    As China becomes increasingly more mainstream, they will be forced to accept and implement strict IP laws; as we all do in the West. Alongside that, we, like Nokia, BMW etc etc can develop IP that they must engage with us to have.
    I’m not going to give you the marketing elevator pitch here and now Alan42 but of course we can compete internationally, with anyone. Including the scary Borg Chinese.

    • liam says:

      The interesting thing for me about China is that for the entire period of its economic reform and growth it has had engineers and scientists in the top party jobs including the President. Think about the difference a leadership that is numerate and trained in practical problem solving and reasoning makes. Compare with what we have in the west: lawyers advised by MBA’s. This is probably important.

    • Alan42 says:

      Ruairi , I think you are misunderstanding me . I was trying to make the point that doing business with China is not as stright forward as it seems . I was not being all doom and gloom . I was saying that it presented a great challenge . Kind of thought I was being positive , but there you go .

      Anyway lets take a little peek into China and I will try and prove my point .
      We all know that China is a superpower or at least a superpower in waiting . Their economy is so big and powerfull that they are actually experimenting with different economic models and have been for a long time with their ‘ special economic zones ‘
      I find it amazing that they can actually take a very large area and seal it off and experiment with different forms of economics .

      What they are trying to do is find the best model that suits a one party state .
      The USA thinks that globalization is good and that democracy will follow in totalitarian regimes .
      The Chinese also like globalization but they want to hang onto the one party state and they want to export it .
      In 2007 they set up a new special economic zone . This time it was in the copper mining belt of Zambia which would benifit from export subsidies , tax breaks and investments in roads , railways and shipping with an investment of $ 800 million .
      They are doing this all accross Africa and they will be all linked together providing China with copper , cobalt , diamonds , tin , oil and uranium.
      It is very famously doing this in Zimbabwe and Sudan .
      I would think that they are using ‘ soft power ‘ to invade resource rich Africa .

      China is so important to the Australian economy ( mining ) that part of the opposition leaders election campaign was that he could speak Mandarin .

      I think what they are doing in Africa is very smart , cunning and ruthless .
      They have absolutley no problem with propping up the Burmese junta either .

      One of the things that the GFC has exposed is the pure greed and short sightness of the West . It has also revealed that we are consumers . But as we gave up making stuff and stopped generating wealth we have turned to credit .
      How did we ‘ fix ‘ this problem ? We got some more credit . And China threw it at us . We also printed money .
      I am not an economist or even know much about finance but I don’t think that we can just do that with no negitive results down the line .

      China thinks that the US is in decline and as China basically owns the US maybe they are right .

      Obama has refused to meet the Dalai Lama as it might upset China .
      That to me is amazing . He is supposed to be the most powerful man in the world . Yet he will not meet the Dalai Lama over fears that he may upset China ?
      Is he not having problems with the American left who formed a large part of his support base before the election ? You would think that hanging out with the Dalai Lama would score you a lot of points with the left .
      ( I actually got to greet the Dalai Lama in Sydney airport 2 years ago as he got a off a plane . I am not religoius , but a very special moment . It was a pure accident and very fleeting and brief and I did not get the chance to explain to him my amazing insights into Chinese thinking . I will however bore you with them )

      Anyway what can we sell to China ? IT ? Is India not doing that already ?

      What can we the West and us the Irish sell to China ?

      • Ruairi says:

        Alan42, I envy you having stood in the presence of the Dalai Lama. A very special human. (I’ve read most of his books, the big celebrity author that he is :) )

        You asked what can we sell the Chinese? The only reason I sensed negativity in your post was that you seemed to fear them and because their prowess wasn’t a call to action for you, I sensed defeatism. No, I still say, as I did above: -
        “Chinese are buying up Mercs, Audis, BMWs etc etc in addition to their own cars. Any company who is anybody in the West is opening up in China to avail of their ’spending’. This is a simple fact.
        Of course given time, they will turn to prestige products of their own, but not for now. Despite China’s powerful industrial machine, the world still turns to Germany for quality and substance. And yes, they are a lot dearer”
        We have to invest in brands that are genuinely better, smarter i.e. brands that do are imbued with their qualities, not just prestige badges. At some stage, the Chinese will have confidence in themselves, just as we will. But no I don’t accept that they will short-term (and I mean a few decades) buy Chinese prestige brands. Unless they are like Lenovo, which having previously been IBM, represents the Skoda of laptops and hence just as good as the VW of laptops, if you’re not a badge snob.
        But I do not accept that the new middle class of China re purely savers. Yes, the Chinese government is actively pushing th merits of physical gold ownership on them (and their own mintage is four 9′s fine, I have some myself ;-) ) but they are also spending bucketloads on Western upmarket brands. Note they are not spending borrowed money. And this similar to the workforce of Germany, who also traditionally never had car loans. (And we note incidentally perhaps that is why Lidl and Aldi never did the credit card thing, only debit cards). No, for now only the French drive their own native-made luxury cars (long live Citroen by the way). For now, the Chinese and the rappers and the property developers will drive their Audis, Beemers and Range Rovers.
        The head of Ericcson was on Bloomberg last night, in very chipper form, it was noted (by the interviewer), while he described their position vis a vis Chinese competition.
        Ireland has a unique opportunity to build strengths in niche areas and that is what we can export: – services. We MUST spend everything we have on R&D. We must increase efficiencies in all areas of our domestic economy and forget thinking that we live in a safe bubble, behind the skirts of Mother Europe. The EU, at its current integration level, could loosen up in the future. We are an SOE. We need to believe that our internal markets are wide open and act accordingly.
        You ask what could we export to China. China has a massive shortage of water and we don’t. So we can confidently export high quality high-value produce http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/a-billion-hungry-mouths-5-7237 to them (while oil prices remain low and that’s already going against my argument as we read the tickers).

        We have to up our game considerably Alan42 and begin imagining the world ahead of us. In the 19th century, even now, who would have thought / think that a man made millions shipping ice to far flung tropical climates? Well, he did. http://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/3650.html

        In the early 90′s, who would have thought that a Limerick man could bottle water and sell it to his own Paddies? Well, he did.
        I’m not saying we bottle water and send it to China. Or we bulk tanker water to China. I’m saying that we need to open our minds. China has vast demand. China has needs that it can’t fulfill itself. Another of those is gold. And yes, that’s one of the reasons why they’re in Africa and Australia. We have loads of it too.
        We have to open our minds and try to feed their insatiable demand. While at the same time concentrating on developing a real smart economy, one founded on ‘thinking skills’, not merely education. Anyone can get an education; not everyone can think. As is CLEARLY evident in Ireland today 24-10-2009. A lot of intelligent people at the top in Ireland today, but they’re driving the bus (and the replacement bus, the last one in stock too!) blindfolded as Furrylugs Black Swan link patently avers to.

        • wills says:

          Guy’s maybe the problem is that….. in Ireland the bottom line on future business opportunities is that……

          1: The political system is unresponsive to the Irish people / honest worker.

          2: it is monopolized by a few powerful groups.

          3: Interest groups exercise their power to monopolize the economy for the benefit of themselves.

          4: The irish people / honest worker be damned.

        • Alan42 says:

          You mentioned prestige brands in your very impressive post .
          The Chinese are incredible snobs and the one thing besides money and numbers that they value is education .
          Tsinghua university is the ultimate nirvana for Chinese parents .
          Australia has a lot of private schools at secondary level . It is stuffed full of rich Chinese students here to get a western education .
          Third level is also full of Chinese students paying big money . It is also full of Indian students studing everything from IT , engineering to medicine .
          Overseas students are worth 16 billion to the Australian econmy . It is our second biggest export .

          Now Auistralia is not excatly known for its culture or its IT industry . So why is Ireland which is the land of saints and scholars and Intel not in on this cash cow ?

          Over here to get into a certain school , even if its private you must live within a certain distance of the school . The fees are expensive which means we are talking about richer areas .
          Chinese emigrants are out bidding rich Australians at house auctions . They are paying silly money for these houses and the rich here complain about the Chinese doing this ( they get little sympathy )
          Why do they pay silly money ? They are doing it for the schools .

          Ireland has a reputation as being family orientated , safe and with good education . We are always talking about our very well educated young people .
          Why are we not exploiting this ?

          • Alan42 says:

            When I lived in Ireland I was always amazed at the amount of young Chinese people working in Spar and Centra etc . I would get chatting to them and I always asked them why they were here and what their plans were .
            Each time and almost without fail they would say that they were were here to learn English for a year and then they would go to the US and attend college .

          • wills says:

            Alan42: ‘Ireland safe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!’. Ireland is a failed state. It maybe safe in malin head or ben nevis.

          • Alan42 says:

            Wills , I said reputation .
            When we are selling ‘ Brand Ireland ‘ it would be best not to mention the random violence .

          • Ruairi says:

            Alan42, an impressive series of posts also. Plenty of insight there. An yes, Ireland is safe.
            Yes it is right to be aware of China’s strength, size and current flexibility.
            But so also to watch for the opportunities. Which of course education is. Well spotted and I think this new widening of the forum to Oz angles (no doubt accelerated by David’s new show but rooted in the diaspora also) is very good for our debates as it allows us to see overarching megatrends; which ireland and Australia will both be subject to.
            Re water as a valuable commodity for the 21st century, I’d ask everyone to look at today’s MoneyWeek column pointing to that same trend: – http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/how-to-profit-from-water-94404.aspx By spending whatever it takes to ‘plug the gaps’ in our water distribution system, thereby creating short-term jobs in construction, we could be shoring up an extremely valuable piece of our armoury for the rest of the century. Not BANKS !!!!

            Also, while watching CCTV9 las night, I spotted an excellent interview of the Naisbitt couple who have written what seems like an excellent insight on China’s megatrends. Excellent discussion at the very least. http://www.cctv.com/english/special/tibet/20090928/104519.shtml
            More about the book, the author(s) and the 8 pillars here: – http://www.naisbitt.com/

            Keep posting all. These discussions are lively and expansive, yet focussed on where we need to go.

          • Ruairi says:

            Alan42,

            Just to follow up on our discussions re the Chinese psyche and their own current and future prestige brands.
            I seem to be a few days ahead of this post. Thank God I did the aul lotto.
            http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/its-back-to-the-future-with-these-china-brands-7292
            Interesting post though. At the end of the day, the internal demand in China for its own produce is phenomenal. The question is, as you rightly share my curiosity on, how do we get in on that action?

  17. Deco says:

    Those that live within their means, and spend on the basis of their needs, are always more free, both financially and intellectually, than those who spend as they are encouraged….

    And free people are a thorn in the side to any gombeen element in society who are continually on the take.

    For this reason Irish culture is full of mores that are continually being reinforced to encourage people to live beyond their means. As exemplified under the economic method now known as Ahernism. Endless borrowing, wasting and bullshitting – combined with a complete intolerance of any form of criticism or scepticism about the long term prospects of such economic stupidity.

    • Ruairi says:

      I’d always heard Ahernia was painful, but Ahernism? A few o’ them? You wouldn’t wish it on your enemies………!

      Hear, hear, by the way.

  18. Tim says:

    Folks, check out this little media scrap and Michael Hennigan’s response (2nd comment under article):

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1023/1224257287633.html

    • liam says:

      Bloch’s argument appears to be a convoluted version of “don’t talk the economy down”, supported by statistics that somebody with a C- in pass maths and a copy of excel could refute.

  19. Tim says:

    Folks, a perfect, but disgusting example of how private sector wage cuts by profitable companies are damaging the economy:

    From Michael Taft:

    http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2009/10/battle-at-boots.html

  20. Tim says:

    Folks, this is really worth a look:

    http://vimeo.com/7151345

    What are your reactions?

    • wills says:

      Tim: “one can’t cut out of recession, you must invest” michael taft.

      “the economy is about the people” MT.

      He is making econ101 common sense, BUT Irelands POnzi bubble aftermath is not about real solutions.

      The ‘powers at be’ / casino money scammers are not interested in real solutions to fix the serf class economy contraction.

      The elite are hell bent to further enslave the serf class deeper into debt peeonage and ignominy and hopelessness and set a deeper wider chasm between them and the serf’s.

      The real solutions to fix the serf class economy contraction engineered by the elites are merely a side issue for the elites. The elites are only going to implement strategies that work in favour of their agenda, strategies like NAMA, bond issuance mis use, implementation of new taxes etc etc.

      • Tull McAdoo says:

        Wills on the side panel there was a clip of Galbraith worth a look. I thought you would like His description of some of the Mortgage loans as being “neutron” as in the bomb, wher He say’s they were designed to destroy people but leave the buildings in tact.Good one yea.??

        • Tull McAdoo says:

          P.s. If you watch all the clips as I did ,thanks to Tim, I think you’ll see that most people with any shred of common sense will have arrived at the conclusions that We have here on this forum.Even people who dont fully understand Economics know that something is not right here.Just to answer some of the previous posters I’ll say this ” it was always the case here where the Falcon was’nt listening for the Falconer”…… ” the centre has’nt held” …..Try as they might the Status Quo will not be returned and as I posted before “The genie IS out of the bottle”……you see Wills everything is not as it seems at first glance in Ireland, sometimes you have to mix it up with the Gombeens just to see where their thinking is at. Malcom Mc is right, sometimes its better just to try onn their hats and try and see the World as they see it,as much as you might find it distastefull.Wink Wink. Goodnight Ireland. Sleep Well.

      • liam says:

        Fintan O’Toole’s talk is particularly interesting. I have no idea how much of what he says is recycled, but the points he makes are fascinating. They are also the barriers that will impede recovery.

  21. Furrylugs says:

    Nassim Taleb was proved correct with his Black Swan theory and these would seem to be the new Ten Commandments for avoidance of same.
    http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tenprinciples.pdf
    Anyone spot the differences with NAMA and the New Banking Model of Ireland?

    BTW, Taleb made a fortune out of the collapse with these associates
    http://www.universa.net/principals.htm
    They’ve a new fund betting on Hyperinflation, if anyone fancies a punt.

    The reasoning behind this is I think, and I’m no economist , is that booms and bursts seem to be increasing in frequency. The rabid greed ihas already starting again with markets and banks shuffling money around, declaring huge “profits” on any spurious economic data and conveniently ignoring all the money printed to fund bailouts. But Governments are spent. There’s bugger all left to ease another downturn so another, very rapid period of profit taking hyper-inflation to create the illusion of sound balance sheets will be followed by the realisation that the sugar daddy governments are broke. Woops.
    No more bailouts and bang goes commerce as we know it. My own guess is that China is soaking commodities for that reason. As our host keeps saying on TV with, yet again, no-one in power listening.

  22. wills says:

    Tull McAdoo: thks for referral. I am of the POV yes securitization turned into another elite – feudal sharercropping POnzi scam fleece jobbo on the serf class.

    Putting on the gombeen hat to get a sense of gombeen motives and intent yield’s great intel.

    I’ve discovered inordinate sum of knowledge doing it.

    For example what’s become clear to me over the years doing it is thee intricacy and tangled web nature of the two tier system we all live in.

    For example, the elite scamming of the serf is no longer a monolithic economic class based enterprise / scam.

    Within the overall 400 year old monolithic mercantilist old world order framework lies layers and layers of Ponzi scam’s working through crony networks interlocking multitudes of fiefdom’s.

    One will discover within the old world order mercantilist system, fiefdom social structuring of byzantium nature.

    So for example, in relation to mortgage debt peeonage one will discover a certain demographic which in my POV is important, which is the following.

    There are certain people’s who’ve ended up a debt slaveyr blind alley due too cultural failure. A background school yard form of coercion / bullying preying upon a more innocent group coercing them into buying into a usury credit system by make a sale to them that if they go into debt bondage it is an alternative system that is looking after them and their worries and interests and it all stinks to high heaven. We are talking about the fairytale viliany in the real world how it operates.

    This debt peeonage constituency are lead of the beating track into misery by more cunning acquired minds and tangle them in a web of their own making. So, i’m blowing the whistle on this aspect of the overall mercantilist system we are in.

    Yes this constituency should know better, but i say, they do not know better because of cultural failure. I’m also well aware of the other’s who ended up in debt peeonage and knew the score big time, and bonded themselves into serfdom, that’s there problem as far as i’m concerned, but, the element i’m talking about must be highlighted.

    • wills says:

      It’s an uncomfortable fact but there are some of us who are legitimate ‘debt slave’ victims. They where, wether we like it or not mugged into debt bondage. And this demographic is crucial to understanding the nature of the way the elites / moneyed vested powers ply their sharecropping trade.

      • wills says:

        I am talking about a quasi literate disenfranchised section of our community found across all social classes who are sold, of their own making, into, debt slave bondage.

        Akin it too a prison type structure. The jail’s are built by the more competent. For example let’s use DmCW’s school system narrative.

        The 3rd / 4rth / 5th/ 6th years of the secondary school take advantage of their know how and competency and mis use it on the primary school kid’s, the bash street kid’s i call them in my writing’s, and scare them into debt peeonage, or, into jail cells and slam the jail cell door behind them.

        Why do this..? In the end it seem’s to me to be a breakdown of communitarian responsiblity. The older kid’s are obligated too help out the younger kid’s education and a lord of the flies situation emerges and they take the easy option, coercion and regime control over thing’s.

  23. Tim says:

    Folks, there is a graphic illustration of the empirical evidence supporting wills’ view here, from the CSO figures to 2005, exposing the widening gap between the negative position of the serfs (debt) and the accumulation of surplus income (wealth) by the elite:

    http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/housing/hbs.pdf

    Imagine how the gap has altered in the last four years.

  24. John ALLEN says:

    The Bible says :

    ‘The Meek shall inherit The Earth’ .

    That was before Ahernism

  25. John ALLEN says:

    Furrylugs :
    I have invested in Hot Water Bottles

    • Ruairi says:

      I wise decision on a stormy day like this John. If you stand near any taxi-rank at 330am tonight, with a hot-water knapsack dispenser on your back, you could make a small fortune !!

  26. wills says:

    Post 6 – MH Finfacts: ‘It is about the surrender of the state power to the collective force of vested interests.’

    Post 4 – Deco: ‘In Ireland it is a case of protecting large hereditary capitalist enterprises, who are too connected to fail.

    Post 4 – Deco: ’50% of the seats in the Dail are serving a tiny minority.’

    Post 11 – Deco: ‘yes the system is structured to ensure that those who can influence the system will extort economic rent from it. In effect our entire economy and political system has turned into an immoral system for screwing those who work, for the benefit of the gombeen element’.

    Post 25 – Liam: ‘…or later people will simply accept their fate…’

    Post 26 – Liam: ‘Ireland’s system of education and political indoctination.’

    Post 32 – Tim: ‘people are being fleeced now, with pay-cut’s, pay freezes, tax levies, prsi levies and pension levies (in the public sector, only).

    Post 32 – Tim: ‘I was not greedy,,,,,,,, but now you are forcing me to pay for the profligacy of the banksters/gamblers?.’

    Post 38 – Liam: ‘The prob;em is the gov are all about protecting the status quo, meaning protecting the banks, not the citizen.

    Post 38 – Liam: ‘…, but it seem’s likely that allowing the banks to go under now will cause market corrections that put the country on the road to recovery much sooner than NAMA as it is currently formulated will.’

    Post 41 – Furrylugs: ‘..as a result, a common delusion is created: people are incited to think what other people think, and thus public opinion may mushroom out into a mass prejudice.’

    Post 41 – Deco: ‘A self derived Pavlovian feedback cycle. A something for nothing reward system. Totally virtual.

    Post 42 – Deco: ‘..those who are on the losing end of the equation and those who are getting something for nothing,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, and the gombeen element who are fixing everything so as to screw the rest of us.’

    Post 43 – Deco: ‘ We have National debt, NAMA debt and bank recapitalization funds. All of which are rising uncontrollably.(It is always PAYE taxpayers that foot the bill).

    • wills says:

      …………….getting to the truth.

      • liam says:

        A good summary of the patient’s symptoms, however I like this particular gem the most -

        Colin_in_exile: “It might be worth thinking about it for a little while……..what kind of country do you want Ireland to be?”

        Although in danger of a copy-write infringement suit from Microsoft, I think this could/should be some sort of national slogan.

        • wills says:

          What a great question.

          I’ll go first. A country which get’s to the root of modern day’s culture’s ‘failure to communicate’.

        • Colin_in_exile says:

          Liam,

          I’m flattered, thank you.

          I want Ireland to be a country that loves its young people. I believe once it achieves that, then many other solutions will fall into place. My memories of early adulthood recall many obstacles which annoyed me. Like I said to Tim a few weeks ago, huge pressure to succeed is applied to secondary school students. Some thrive on it, but most resent it I believe.

          The property bubble since 1998 gave young people the 2 fingers, the “dream” of owning your own place became unaffordable to many. Why should young people have to take out 40 year mortgages? Why should they have been forced to bid against eachother for a place to call their own? I know Bertie was putting a few quid aside for his 2 daughters, but not every father was able to afford that. Bertie didn’t care about other men’s sons and daughters.

          This is why, in my opinion, property values must be allowed to reach rock bottom, and when young people can consider themselves to be stakeholders again, maybe we’ll be on our way out of this mess.

          • wills says:

            Colin in exile.

            Agreed. The only way Ireland exit’s this is by leaving property pricing to the economic laws of supply and demand.

            Now the reason why something so simple is been so viciously resisted by a certain powerful elite to the point now where they do not care for it been so obvious their NAMA skullduggery it raises very serious questions demanding the truth.

          • Tim says:

            Colin_in_exile, It looks like we want the same thing.

            Come home any time you want.

            You are welcome in Wicklow.

      • Deco says:

        Wills you made many excellent comments yourself also.

        We have to encourage each other. This is an intellectual exercise. It is a case of getting our level of thinking above the pervasive level of thinking that is squirming in the face of this mess.

        And your honesty is really positive and an anchor.

    • Tim says:

      wills, Excellent work! (must have taken much time and effort!).

      What a useful culmination of the ruminations of so many decent Irish people who are trying to think through and communicate something useful on a theme.

      Here is how they do “transparency” on Tax returns in Norway:

      http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2009/10/publishing-tax-returns-norwegian-style.html

      All out in the open and the man who earned 12 million PAID 4 million in taxes towards his country.

      Sound very UNFAMILIAR, anyone???

    • Furrylugs says:

      Good man Wills(unless you’re Wilhelmena in which case I apologise for the presumption).
      I used to be able to spend the same amount of time posting(mostly google driven observational drivel) but had to revert to filling the fridge. How this?
      The double dip will hit about February after the budget, after Christmas, after the credit cards that made Christmas and after 18 months of reality eventually hit.
      A classic J Allen Wobble and a “Grey Swan”, to coin a phrase since we Irish don’t observe any normal rules .

      IMHWIVFF.

      • Tim says:

        Furrylugs, I can say with certainty (short, I must add, of doing a “Crocodile Dundee” on it) that wills is a good “man”!

        Your prediction looks realistic to me, though by making it, you may cause a chain of events that may alter it.

        I love the idea of a “Grey Swan” for Ireland; always have to be different. Couldn’t have one of them Black wans, at all, at all!

        (Please tell: What is IMHWIVFF?)

        • Furrylugs says:

          Or maybe Irish Democratic Politics is more like the Corncrake. Hard to see, confined to two notes (of which one is flat) and effectively extinct.
          We badly need a unifying movement to avoid the division being practiced by the current Landlords as described by David above..
          Whitehall would be honoured to see “Divide & Conquer” taken to its ultimate Masterclass. Davitt and O’Connell must be turning in their graves with the level of disenfranchisement abroad in Ireland today. Chile and Argentina had the Dissappeared. We have the Dispossessed.

  27. Tim says:

    Liam, Yes, Colin’s is a great question:

    Colin_in_exile: “It might be worth thinking about it for a little while……..what kind of country do you want Ireland to be?”

    I want Ireland to be the kind of country where the well-being of all of its people is the top priority; a country whose profit of enterprise is used to serve its people, rather than its people used to serve the profits of enterprise.

  28. Tull McAdoo says:

    I had my usual Saturday visit to the pub today from “clips” O’Malley. I suppose it’s important to clarify at this point “clips” refers to bicycle clips, as O’Malley (ex school master, local school) has taken to cycling since they introduced the drink driving laws, and goes on at great length about it not being “ a mechanically propelled vehicle”. When he’s had his few pints he usually says “clips and lamp Seaneen that’s it for me” as I usually keep them behind the Bar for safekeeping ever since “the incident” which I’m not at liberty to discuss. wink wink. Now for a long time “clips” was suspected of being a member of the Green Party, for he was always waffling on about the Planet, Compost, power from the Sun, the importance of worms but mostly Wind. I think his interest in Wind was sparked by his preference for having it on his back on the way home if ye follow my drift.
    Anyway clips usually drank on his own, although it was never formally acknowledged by anyone per se, but supporting the Greens was right up there with being Gay, English or from Cork (from a Kerry perspective). People did’nt like sitting to close to him in case they would be thought of as “a sympatiser” nod nod and all that auld stuff. Well suffice to say all that changed after the recent RDS charade, when out with a mouthful of abuse, the likes of which was never heard from a schoolmaster in the entire history of man. Un-repeatable in a Catholic Country is all I’ll say. Well anything like the reception he got, pints, half-ones, it was like the return of the “prodical son.” It did’nt seem to matter whether he was a supporter of FG or FF or ILP as drink was coming from all sides, so long as he was’nt a supporter of any “auld odd notions”. Suffice to say at the end of the night, lamp and clips were placed in glove compartment, with bicycle protruding from booth of said “mechanically propelled vehicle” and Seaneen was designated driver without impunity I might add to deliver “one of our own” home to sleep off the celebrated revelations.
    I suppose to acknowledge the proposal of our host David that we may be lining up for a fight among ourselves, I can say with all sincerity that there will be no fighting down here among the plain people of South Kerry, unless of course you happen to be one of them people with “ auld odd notions” on how the Country needs to be changed. Oiche mhaith Eire agus sleep well, especially Tim.

    • Furrylugs says:

      Very well written piece Tull. However, I’ll gladly walk across from Gougane to Jackies place to debate this one;
      “but supporting the Greens was right up there with being Gay, English or from Cork (from a Kerry perspective) and a few more “ auld odd notions” .

  29. StephenKenny says:

    Something quite interesting happened on the BBC TV last week. The leader of the British National Party (BNP), a right wing political party, was on the BBC program Question Time.
    I don’t, generally, pay any attention to the BBC, but a friend of mine pointed this out to me, and I watched a recording.
    The BNP could be summed as as standing for “British jobs for British Workers”, which I suppose means “British jobs are not for non-British Workers”.
    Question Time has the reputation of being quite ‘high brow’ and ‘intellectual’ – I would disagree with such a view, but such it seems to be.
    There was a huge uproar when it was announced that the leader of the BNP was to be on this show. Watching it, it was very clear it had been set up (audience, the other panelists, and the attitude of the moderator) as little more than a witch trial.
    What was interesting was the clarity and simplicity of this man’s message: He and his party are on the side of the British Worker. They claim to be against anything that gets in the way of that.
    Just as in the Republic, and in the USA from what I can gather, the other political parties and the main media outlets, are on the side of the bankers, major corporations, and the political establishment itself.
    I find it impossible to believe that anything of such a nature will gain traction, but for the first time I can see the seductive beauty of this sort of simple political argument.
    My heart tells me that such a thing is quite impossible, in the Europe of the 21st Century, but my brain tells me to keep half an eye open.

  30. Tull McAdoo says:

    Indeed Furrylugs, as would any rational person debate the gombeen mentality, but thats the underbelly of Irish Politics that re-elects the type of people highlighted in Ken Foxes article in the Tribune.

    http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2009/oct/25/exposed-top-10-dail-expenses-claimants/

    or as one commenter so elegantly put it. “Suck, suck, suck on the titties of the emaciated old sow that is Mother Ireland.

    Suck, suck suck………….

    • Deco says:

      Tull McAdoo – humour might humour us…..but if you want to hit those wasters (the first word that came to mind was much harsher) then I recommend to stop imitating them…and just rip the asunder with simple logic and analysis.

      I enjoy the sneer at Johnny Cash. But stereotyping is missing the point. This is a pervasive disease called opportunism/gombeenism. It defies over-simplification. But it can be beaten by unmasking it’s lies and the myths perpetuated to prevent us know it.

  31. Deco says:

    I know this is late to mention this….but this latest announcement from the Finance Department leaves me in a state of gobsmackement….

    Lenihan is preparing to do another Anglo….On INBS….INBS is another Anglo in the making….and Lenihan has learned nothing…absolutely nothing from the Anglo Debacle.

    • Deco says:

      I forgot to include this link

      http://www.sbpost.ie/themarket/lenihan-paves-way-for-wind-down-of-inbs-45177.html

      Anyway make up your own minds. Mine is decided on the basis of the fact that INBS is a mini – Anglo.

      And somebody might like to tell that deluded eijet who holds the title of Finance Minister, that INBS is NOT of systemic importance. (and neither in fact is Anglo).

      • Tull McAdoo says:

        Sure Fingers and Seanie were always cut from the same cloth. Both over relied on liquidity from the wholesale money markets, borrowing short and lending long, with no concept of the long term sustainability of their underlying Model.I know from inside sources that they threw money at Derivitave hedging ,even though their trading desks were out of their depth.Most of the counterparties to their trades knew they were an easy touch,and would write shit to keep the loans horsed out at the other end. Meglamania on the trail of fools gold is what i was.

  32. Tull McAdoo says:

    Agreed Deco, but and there’s always a but, I have followed the Economic arguments on another forum where Karl Whelan et al have taken Nama apart bit by bit until there was NO rational argument to support it and yet it lost out to mink,college fee’s etc. from the Greens, without as much as a pip from any Independants or backbench FF TD’s….Yet when its suggested to bring alcohol levels down from 80 to 50 ml. there is almost a complete backbench revolt ???? At this point in the debate I had expected to move on to the underlying structural failures of the State, but its almost impossible to break this stranglehold of Gombeenism. Its my contention that its this Gombeen support combined with FF’s hardcore support that has seen them re-elected so often.That’s why I implored ” who will rid me of this troublesome beast”. Any thoughts ????

    • wills says:

      Tull:
      Look up Freud’s concept ‘Primary Narcissism’.

      Ireland as a cultural force is deep in a culture upon values based on primary narcissism.

      Rest of the world it’s not as deep.

      Gombeenism is primary narcissistic.

  33. Tim says:

    Tull McAdoo, the “rough beast slouches towards” us all the time.

    The govt. raided the NTMA’s public service pension-fund, set up by McCreevy, and gave some €11 billion of it to the banks and it disappeared into the black hole.

    Now, since the future pensions have been stolen and thrown into useless private-sector banks, the public servants are expected to take pay and pension cuts to compensate:

    http://www.sbpost.ie/commentandanalysis/no-time-for-prevarication-45196.html

    The spin is disgusting, Tull McAdoo, and although I really enjoy your funny posts, I agree with Deco that we must dedicate ourselves to de-constructing the lies and spin that we are being fed.

    Some humour along the way is important, though, and may just keep me (for one) somewhat sane; so please continue!

    Satire is, in my view, a legitimate form of critique.

    • Tull McAdoo says:

      Well ” to lose 1 billion, Mr.Tim may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose 11 billion looks like carelessness.”…….on a more serious note I remember how shocked you were when you discovered how Banks use their fractional reserve system for leverage so what do you make of Linehans latest offering to World Finance i.e. He decided after the Buisness plan for Nama was published to launch His SPV (special purpose vehicle) or scud missile as I like to call it. It goes like this …set up SPV with 100 million share Capital, 51% privately owned by who the hell knows and 49% owned by Nama. SPV will now issue 54 billion in Bonds to Banks for shit assets,meanwhile SPV is 100% guaranteed by Irish Government or you and everyone else. Work out the leverage used by SPV and come back and tell Me we just set new World record for leverage.MAYBE we can all have our photo’s taken ,handing over cheque to Banks and make front cover of Christmas edition of Guiness Book of Records.Yes you read correctly 54 billion divided by 100 million is leverage ratio.Were number one again yipeeeee.

      • Tull McAdoo says:

        p.s. If Nama takes in more money than is needed to service loans they will pay dividend to private shareholders each year,,,also if Nama make profit at the windup of operation Private Shareholders get 10% of windfall…….If everything goes tits up Private Shareholders get back their original 51 million… so not sure if this qualifies for Guiness Book of records for non-recourse loan gamble record, remind me to e-mail Bernie Madoff to check his figures for non-recourse loans.

  34. wills says:

    Tim, check this link out for a breakdown on tull’s stats.

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/

    • Colin_in_exile says:

      Thanks for the link wills.

      Its shocking, Lenihan seems hell bent on fcuking up the country.

      Best advice is to sell up and emigrate.

      • Tull McAdoo says:

        Better advice for Colin_in_exile…..sell up ,use money to buy shares in SPV…..Then use shares as collateral for large interest only loan from both Big Banks AIB/BOI to buy their shares, then emigrate in 2 years with large profit to a Country with no Banannas.Have you learned nothing about Irish law of the lever here on this forum.If plan above does not work somebody will give you lump sum +pension when you do go.Jasus man everyone gets lump sum +pension here ,have you not been reading the papers or listening to the wireless??? Ha Ha.

  35. Senan says:

    The political class have lost the people. Problem is, we’ve already had the massive crisis and the government are still intent on seeing out their term no matter what. So what will it actually take to tip the decisions to take a general election?!

  36. Tim says:

    “secession”, anyone?

  37. Furrylugs says:

    I saw her once, one little while, and then no more:
    ’Twas Eden’s light on Earth a while, and then no more.
    Amid the throng she passed along the meadow-floor:
    Spring seemed to smile on Earth awhile, and then no more;
    But whence she came, which way she went, what garb she wore
    I noted not; I gazed a while, and then no more!

    I saw her once, one little while, and then no more:
    ’Twas Paradise on Earth a while, and then no more.
    Ah! what avail my vigils pale, my magic lore?
    She shone before mine eyes awhile, and then no more.
    The shallop of my peace is wrecked on Beauty’s shore.
    Near Hope’s fair isle it rode awhile, and then no more!

    I saw her once, one little while, and then no more:
    Earth looked like Heaven a little while, and then no more.
    Her presence thrilled and lighted to its inner core
    My desert breast a little while, and then no more.
    So may, perchance, a meteor glance at midnight o’er
    Some ruined pile a little while, and then no more!

    I saw her once, one little while, and then no more:
    The earth was Peri-land awhile, and then no more.
    Mangan could have written this about our country finally taking it’s place and failing.

    Oh, might I see but once again, as once before,
    Through chance or wile, that shape awhile, and then no more!
    Death soon would heal my griefs! This heart, now sad and sore,
    Would beat anew a little while, and then no more.

  38. Tim says:

    “of” Ire, even….

  39. jkforde says:

    This is good, slightly over produced but content is excellent and same as David’s…. I think it would be worth this going viral so tweet, Digg, Stumble, just get it around…..

    Zeitgeist Orientation:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVrHtbSo11I

  40. Ruairi says:

    @ Alan42, regarding the points I was making about our resources vis a vis China and in particular our fresh drinking water resources and its positive impact on farming production and indeed industrial production: -
    Interesting paragraph here about ‘embodied water’ i.e. it will be cheaper for the Chinese to import top quality beef from Ireland than attempt to irrigate the food chain necessary to produce that beef themselves. They simply don’t have the fresh water resourceto compete with us: -
    http://www.iiea.com/blogosphere/positioning-ireland-for-the-coming-water-crisis
    A very interesting concept.

    “The concept of “embodied water” is likely to gain attention. It takes over ten thousand litres of water to produce a kilo of beef, so it may make sense in certain cases to import the beef and use a country’s scarce water resources for urban populations or industry. But can countries depend on the international trading system to provide for these core food requirements? In 2008 thinly traded agricultural markets proved unreliable.”
    …………
    and further on……..

    “While perhaps exporting water itself may not be on the immediate horizon, the embodied water of our food and beverage exports will be of increasing value in years to come. It will be incumbent on the agricultural sector in Ireland to enhance its efficiency and to maximise output per drop of water, and gram of greenhouse equivalent, in order for the sector to capitalise on what is likely to be an enormous opportunity in years to come.”

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