One thing the Lisbon debate has done is distract us from the juggernaut that is NAMA. In Laois today, speaking to a large group of retailers — who can sense the credit crunch in their bottom lines — the only topic was the banks, the bailout and what is going to be left after NAMA.
The feeling in the room was one of outrage, bordering on disgust, and a palpable sense of powerlessness.
One woman, a big retailer from a decent-sized town, told me that watching events unfold was like watching a drama from prison. Because the electoral cycle is five years long, she felt there was nothing she could do to register her dismay at NAMA. There was just no way of signalling her opposition. She told me she wanted to scream “not in my name” but had lost her voice.
As far as she and others were concerned, Lisbon can come and go, but NAMA is where the big mistake is likely to be made. The retailer said she knew the builders in the town that would be bailed out and the bankers who lent to them and were still taking home good salaries and playing golf in the local club as if nothing happened. All the while, she feared her business would really feel the pinch when interest rates turn. Whatever about having precious little credit now she feared that, once rates began to rise, the position of her and many on the main street like her would become impossible.
Others shared her concern. They were worried about their outstanding loans. Many of these are “interest only” affairs, taken out when times were good and provincial towns were booming. Many retailers expanded their shops dramatically not only to respond to demand and the insatiable appetite of my old friend Breakfast Roll man, but also to try and stave off competition from big multiples like Tesco. This expansion leaves them very exposed to interest-rate moves.
With that in mind, let us have a look at the interest-rate cycle in Europe because, Lisbon or no Lisbon, interest rates in Europe will rise progressively over the next year or two. And this could be enough to push many Irish businesses over the edge.
Before we look at the likely trajectory of rates, let us examine how interest rates work differently in different countries in Europe. In Ireland and in the UK, we finance more or less everything at variable and short-term rates. In Germany, they finance at fixed and long-term rates. This means changes in interest rates have much smaller impacts on consumer demand in Germany than they have in Ireland.
When rates are decreased, we party here and when rates rise fast we suffer dramatically. So, in the past year, as the ECB cut rates significantly, we have have been given a significant breather. Many highly indebted companies are just holding on at the moment because rates are so low.
When the rates turn, however, the precarious position of many of us and our companies will become apparent. And the financial markets will factor this in to their equations.
To understand what is likely to happen, take a look at the chart above. It shows the reaction of the US financial markets in the past 12 months to companies that had lots of debt.
Traditionally, these risky companies are asked to pay a premium to investors of about 2pc over US government bonds. This is to cover the investor for the risk that these companies will default. In other words, because they are more risky than government bonds, indebted companies pay more for their borrowings.
Now look what happened last year. When the liquidity crisis broke, companies dependent on short-term financing looked far weaker than they already were. The graph shows the difference between the interest rate on their borrowings and that paid by the US government. At the peak of the crisis, indebted businesses had to pay 5pc more in interest than was paid on government bonds.
We see a dramatically amplified effect on the interest rates weaker companies had to pay in the graph, which caused many of them to go to the wall. But it is the taking over of the banks rather than the trials of indebted businesses that will worry the markets the most.
Investors will be afraid that the capital position of our banks will be eroded, once more, by new bad debts as interest rates rise — but this time from companies and retailers rather than builders. Crucially, this debt will not be in NAMA. Share prices will fall as bad debts mount, and the State may be compelled to act again. In this scenario, it could nationalise the banks — by injecting more capital — or it could preside over zombie banks with neither confident management or shareholders.
This is the vista we face, Lisbon or no Lisbon, and that worry was written on the faces of the people I met yesterday — who sell us our milk and butter late at night, or are there when we’ve forgotten to make the children’s lunch.
Colin_in_Exile,
“That sounds like a defence of obfuscation.”
That hurt.
!) You know that wills does not obfuscate;
2) You know that I do not..
(though we may both have different styles).
Tim,
I know you don’t obfuscate. However, lately, some of Wills’ comments (in my opinion) conveyed obfuscation, which irks me. I don’t claim to be any kind of an expert, I love reading posts by some people here who give their clear understanding of current affairs.
The post about rents (by wjt?) struck a chord with me. It was like a glimpse of light shining through the darkness.
Colin_in_Exile, the post you refer to is this, I think:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/09/30/why-economic-recovery-can-be-bad-for-business#comment-64142
All I can say is this: I am glad that you know I don’t obfuscate.
In that case, I am surprised that you do not say the same for wills. He is most-consistent. Unwavering.
Where I will, often cajole and encourage (Mol an oige, agus tiochfaigh si),
wills, simply, “states his case” and promotes that.
He has a purpose, is on a mission (as we all are, I’m sure), and he pursues his in his way.
We are all, only trying our best here.
wills, to his eternal credit, had the balls to “Look me in the eye”, put his questions and stay his answers.
I WILL not doubt that man.
Nor, his credentials.
I can BELIEVE that he speaks HIS truth in every single post he makes, here.
We need more people like him.
Colin_in_Exile,
BTW, I agree with that post (about the landlords), too.
tim, i’d agree with that tim, spot on.
For what it’s worth, here‘s my closing summary 2 pence/2cent‘s worth. The decision to join the Euro was the point at which Ireland ‘crossed the Rubicon’.
The political implications arising out of merging currencies have come to the fore during this crisis, limiting the role and importance of the Irish Government in a way that was never envisaged in 1999. To my mind, the bullet quote in this sobering article is:
’In Ireland and in the UK, we finance more or less everything at variable and short-term rates. In Germany, they finance at fixed and long-term rates. This means changes in interest rates have much smaller impacts on consumer demand in Germany than they have in Ireland.’
Having crossed the Rubicon of currency union, the business culture in Ireland failed to migrate towards the dominant European model, remaining in sync to an outmoded model of British finance which was no longer fit for purpose. Responsibility for that surely rests as much with Brussels as it does with Dublin. The ECB will have to find a way of managing German fears of inflation without crushing smaller nations under any more hammer blows of deflation such as Ireland is now experiencing.
As well as being a crude currency determinist, I also feel language determines destiny as it shapes every thought. If Europe is going to work then all it’s citizens have to speak at least German. Spanish seems equally important. I’m not sure what the fluency rate is in Ireland, but for future generations: Language seems to be easiest way to ‘break the link’ to the overwhelming cultural influences of America and Britain.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/philip-hensher/philip-hensher-flummoxed-by-foreign-tongues-1795610.html
Having solved the riddle of my upbringing to the best of my ability, it’s time for me to ramble on to other topics. The writings of David McWilliams and the comments on this blog have really helped me to understand my ‘Irish childhood in Birmingham’. I’ve come to understand that I’m not Irish, I’m not English: I’m Hybrid. Post-Irish. Post-English. And I’m very comfortable with that because I believe that ‘hybridity is the new authenticity’. Ireland doesn’t need to reach out to any hybrid historical diaspora because it is creating an internal one of its’ own through immigration.
Ireland itself is now ‘Post-Irish’. In terms of immigration, culture, law and soon, language. Currency union implies political, cultural, legal and linguistic convergence. It always did. And there’s nothing wrong with that scenario if that’s what people actually want(ed). Hence, currency union as ‘rubicon’.
As for Lisbon: I’d just kick that ball back over the sea to ‘the Brits’. Whoever they’re meant to be in their ever morphing hybridity:
http://www.staffordshirehoard.org.uk/
With gratitude to all the English and Irish people who guided me on to this path.
“Celtic blood. Saxon heart: This I’m made of”
Andrew G Mooney, Thank you, again.
Hi Andrew,
I too noticed David’s observation about Europeans using “long-money” with us on “short-money”:
David: “In Ireland and in the UK, we finance more or less everything at variable and short-term rates. In Germany, they finance at fixed and long-term rates. This means changes in interest rates have much smaller impacts on consumer demand in Germany than they have in Ireland.”
Andrew: “Having crossed the Rubicon of currency union, the business culture in Ireland failed to migrate towards the dominant European model, remaining in sync to an outmoded model of British finance which was no longer fit for purpose. Responsibility for that surely rests as much with Brussels as it does with Dublin.”
The thing is, there is no free lunch with long-money (5,10,20,30 year). Consumers in european counties such as Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, (France?) have traditionally been forced to use long-term finance such as for mortgages due to their financial regulators. Long-term money does have the benefit of bringing stability, lower fluctuations, etc.
We on the other hand have used short-term money. This is more variable with more peaks and troughs and consumers are more affected by cycles of boom and bust. However, short-term is cheaper and lower cost!
Of course, short-term users need to “put by” for the times when the interest rates are higher. So, its all down to our regulators and government, and nothing to do with the tool of short in comparison with long. Short is not a broken model per se!
Yes, Brussels/ECB could have forced us to move to a longer model as part of EMU, and indeed due to our abysmal regulation, it would have been far better for us.
Dont blame the axe for the murder, blame the axeman!
As for Post-Irish, Post-English, for you as an individual, who would you support in a rugby match, Ireland v England ?
Like a coin, Heads or Tails very rarely comes out as edge.
MK1
andrew, agee.
Can i add on the ‘rubicon’ point, interesting how the irish banks went beserk lending, prudent banking doesn’t mean flood with credit when i rates low.
Also, i’m very convinced irish banksters tok full advantage of the ‘crossing of the rubicon’ and let rip and were in full knowledge of a bubble and its bursting and that the ecb were ready too go running too for freshly minted euros to bridge them out of the bubble afternmath.
The irish are a most sly and cunning tribe of all tribes.
Bravo AndrewGMooney!
As a follow onn from My earlier post and the reply I gave Tim I would like to ask the forum for some clarifications on something I heard on Internet Radio Today.The discussion was focused on this debate on Public /Private pay and how its calculated and teased out for comparison etc. Now let Me say at this point ,that Im not so much interested in raising some debate on pay as I think it has been raised before on the forum, but on how the public service and more so the civil service are made up and how they see and represent themselves. What grabbed My attention was the upper deciles in terms of pay and the comparisions used. Now as it happens the difference between Private and Public in this area is only about 5%,pretty much on par for all intents. Now the Person speaking about the Public side of the equation justified their renumeration on the basis of (1) experience (2) Education i.e.Degrees,Masters etc. held.(3) inhouse and external training and updating of skills etc………Suffice to say as I listened that I felt the logic of the argument was sound and so went on My way. Later while reflecting on the debate,I realised that while the logic might be sound ,the reality in Ireland is somewhat different. The problem I’m having is this..If Ireland has all this expertise and experience availeable on the Public Payroll then why the need for all these outside Agencies with report after report, enough one would think to choke an entire field of Horses. Now take NAMA for example,again not the debate for or against ,as that can be argued elsewhere, but let Me teases it out this way. The Government has at its disposal, Central Bank.Financial Regulator,Financial ombudsman,Dept. of Finance, Revenue commis, Dept. of Enviornment,Acess to Companies Reg. Office,DPP, and so onn ,what seems like a huge amount of information and expertise. Sure on the face of it the Government either has all the info it needs or can extrapolate from it own sources all it needs to determine values, from Stamp duty paid on sales, Tax returns both private and Company,actual zonings and acerages,planning permissions sought and approved or failed……At this juncture there is no need labour the point,suffice to say the Government can access and formulate any information that is relevant to the Property Sector. So why the need for Alan Ahearne, Peter Bacon, PWC,KPMG,some valuer guy etc. etc….. Again I hope ye get the drift of where Im going with this ,as I find the same is true of the Health Service, Education,and virtually every area that is the Public/ Civil Service. If I had someone working for Me and discovered through time that they were constantly employing outside expertise it would cause Me great concern. I would assess the costs etc. but I would be most concerned at why the person I employed was not prepared to take ownership of projects,take responsibility,put their stamp on it etc.etc….I would conclude that I was better off firing them and have My Secretary make the calls,hire as needs be and so onn. At this point let Me say that the same is true for the Politicians of all hue’s,constant deferment ,waiting on reports,waiting for GODOT more like. David said in an earlier article that this was a War or Battle for our Economic survival and it seems we are either waiting for word to come back from “the front” or from “the bunker” or for re-enforcements from Europe or global recovery etc……Really it all boils down to the people in the trenches,do we stay putt and risk being overrun,or do we go over the top and trust the people in the bunker and all their staff have made the right decisions.After all no one wants to see us all slaughtered in huge numbers so that certain Officer Classes can negotiate a nice little surrender for themselves.They would’nt do that to there own…would they ?????? Goodnight Ireland . Sleep well.
JIm, let me try a return. Official Ireland and its mechanics are posing as democratically run, and in fact it is a lie. The machinations of Official Ireland is a con. The whole gangster operation is run along a ‘tyranny of power and influence’ right across the spectrum and down the totem pole.
Meritocracy is dead. Too be rewarded with promotion and bells and whistles involves how low you will go for the tyranny. How far you are prepared too perpetrate thuggery and white collar crime etc for the tyranny that rules and runs Irish society.
One of the slickest tricks used by the regime control is to create a daisy chain and pass the parcel of blame down down the line over the cliff and into the irish sea which is full of the sh1t and p1ss of ireland since 2 years ago when finally after 80 years the powers at be decided too treat the sewage reponsibly.
In fact come too think jim, how ireland deals with its human excrement is a metaphor on how Ireland is run from the inside out, top down.
But, it’s nearly done for.
Keep at it alan42 and Colin-in-exile. You’re calling a spade a spade. Tim campaigned door-to-door for the FF shysters during the heydays of Bertie Madoff’s ponzi scheme, as did Joe Behan. Did they understand what they were campaigning for? Did they ever question the cult of puppydog-eyes Bertie? Behan even got a second job out of it, but jumped once he realised the ATM was shut, he must think money grows on trees.
Just voted. In my local school, the teaching staff are on duty at the polling station, nice nixer for the day. Not a thought for the 430,000 unemployed, who would really appreciate a job for the day.
Paddy
Spot on Paddy!. Tim. You cant play for both teams during the same match , just so you can be on the winning side. Nail you colours to the mast, one side or the other, not both.
Oh! That is a dreadful assertion; and a very narrow view of things: now, I am playing for “two teams”? Or am I sitting on a fence?
Well, let’s see, shall we?
I work in both the public sector and the private sector (teaching and IT, respectively);
Should I pick a “side” and choose only one of them to please you, if we are debating on the two sectors?
I have a daughter and a son; should I pick a side and choose one over the other if we debate on relative genders? (in some grotesque “Sophie’s Choice” decision?)
In jim’s post, above, he wonders why the govt outsources so much decision-making to consultants and auditors, etc.; (all private-sector companies).
It is the government (public sector) paying money to the friends and cronies who own and/or work in these private sector companies; Oireachtas members “looking after” their buddies.
They also get the added advantage of not having to accept responsibility for anything they do: just point to the “independent” private sector company that produced the report for the fee of €90,000 and say, “Ask them; I am only going by the conclusions reached by the independent auditors.”
So, these matters are far more complicated than some game played with a ball and two clear and distinct opposing “teams”.
This is not a bunch of guys in coloured jerseys kicking a leather bag of air around in a field; this is real life, with real people, with real families, with real feelings and thoughts and ideas. It’s real life; and it’s complicated. It is not a simple matter of “pick a side”, or “which jersey do you wear?” (arguably, that mentality is the crony-capitalism that brought us to the troubles we are in, indeed, the “troubles” we had for so many years on our Island).
I am not “putting anyone down” here; I am just a person with a normal, flawed, complicated “real life”, like everyone else’s, expressing what ideas and opinions I can in order that we may arrive at some sort of coping-strategy for where we find ourselves.
If some people here want us all to “pick a team”, burn a tent, etc., etc., then come out of the shadows, tell me first what game you want me to play and why; and then I will decide whether it is even possible to chose whatever silly coloured jersey it is that you want me to wear, instead of just trying to engage in reasoned discourse.
tim, i’m not a FF’r and it is perfectly reasonable to be a member of FF and be utterly against it’s concurrent, in vogue, cultist modus operandii.
I’d just leave it with these guy’s, they are refusing too be rational and all punch bagging.
It’s bonkers. One becomes a member of a party for all sorts of reasons.
paddy, is not reasonable to be in FF and be against a certain inside cult who took control, and resist it, and precipitate change.
Can’t get answers Paddy . I think its backbencher policy now to say that they don’t agree with NAMA , health cuts , education cuts . I have spoken to FF canvassers on the doorstep in the last election . I questioned them on Bertie . Agreed with me completly . Said they were not happy either . Just to see how far they would go I complained to one FF TD about a small hole in the footpath outdide my gate . The guy was on his hands and knees examining the hole , took notes and everything . His canvassers were all involved . Well F**k me but the Corpo appeared the next week to fix it .
If I answered the door to a FF TD and said I wanted to marry a goat they would agree with me 150%. They would even provide the goat .
Its what is wrong with Ireland . We accept crap . Crap government , crap services and zero accountability . Irelands recession is just about the worlds worst . Its bad enough that we have hundreds queueing for part time work in M+S but so many people are carrying a lot of debt . The future is real bright for the Jugglers out in Meath with their massive negitive equity mortgages , credit cards , car loans , personal loans , credit union loans . Not to mention retailers and big and small business mounting and looming bad debts . A lot of people who released equity must be also a tad worried . The world will recover . Maybe it will be a W recovery or really long and drawn out . But Ireland will lag behind as it repays massive debt .There must be some black hole in Anglo as anybody who looks in the black hole of Anglo’ s books becomes a convert to government policy on Anglo .
FF in their wisdom have decided that they will do the impossable and reinflate a bubble . Are we the only people in histrory to attempt this ? If it can be done why are we not trading tulips on the stock exchange ?
For years there was talk of cooling the property market so people could ‘ get on the ladder ‘ . Now FF are going to spend the next 10 to 20 years trying to inflate the price of property while at the same time trying to reduce costs in the economy . Can some one please explain to me how that is possible ? We are looking at , at least 1 lost generation , if not 2 lost generations Our boom to bust was managed continually by one government . FF . they can’t even blame anybody else but yet refuse to take any responsibility instead blaming it on global factors .
We hae people like Tim a president of the his local cummann . Ask him some questions . Even simple ones like why he is a member of FF and there is no answer . Nothing to do with him it would seem . Does not seem to support any FF policies . The one guy he admits to canvassing for has resigned from the party . So it would seem that he does not support any of its policies , or TD’s . Yet come next election Tim will knock on your door and hand you a leaflet with some well fed FF ‘ er picture on it and completly agree with you when you say you detest FF . Tim is reforming it . This candidate is different . Yet it is never different . Years ago it was the Sweepstakes and The Irish Press and today it is NAMA . Tim is disgusted by these 3 scandals yet Tim is still FF . I would imagine that Tim would at least answer the question of why he is in FF . What is it about FF that attracts him to the party ?
Tim is well connected and its a family thing . His children will be looked after by some red faced other well connected FF ‘er and on it goes . But this time its different because the country is well and truely broken this time . When people realise that a world upturn does not mean that the Tiger comes roaring back overnight and there are no jobs and the debts have them crippled they will not happy .
Nail on the Head
Burren Rain – just like the old grey limestone lying under the dark clouded sky receiving the daily blessings from above and listening to the seashore waves pounding the shore the whistle reverbrates again another great day being lost to the mother of nature once more to be no more ……yes today is sending us again to our graves only this time we will not live to read the epitaph.
Tim – I agree ‘go slow’.Nevertheless use your ‘tongues of fire’ to reveal the news and the flames will spread with real speed and deliver all you give.
‘President’ Blair waits on Irish Voters
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6857807.ece
Blair and BAe.
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/today/today_20091001-1056a.mp3
Courtesy of a real public service broadcaster.
For anyone who is interested in statistics:
Out of 160 responses to this article
Wills posted 25%
Tim posted 19%
leaving 56% for everybody else.
e.g. “wills says
tim, i’d agree with that tim, spot on.”
Tim and Wills seem to have established a mutual admiration and back-watching society and tend to drive discussion away from the topics raised in DMcW’s articles and onto their own hobby-horses.
Why otherwise should anyone care about their political affiliations, personal life or tie colour ?
Is this a mature way to conduct a debate?
should read, wills posted 24.6 %.
@170 posts, top-level/thread starting posts, of which there are 69 belong to:
john ALLEN (20%)
Tim (17%)
wills (10%)
jim (7%)
paddythepig (6%)
Malcolm McClure, Deco, G, liam (4%)
AndrewGMooney (3%)
I have excluded single posts (1.5% each) and rounded the numbers. There is also some noise here as many of the top-level posts are actually replies that belong to other threads (tut-tut). Conclude what you will, but I’d suggest that this proves once and for all what we all already suspected: JohnALLEN is definitely the most ‘original’ contributor here :)
congratulations John! ;)
actually, 52/170, not 69
..I raise a toast too John,…
“…tend to drive discussion away from the topics raised in DMcW’s articles and onto their own hobby-horses.”
I blame it all on Global Warming, myself, Malcolm ; -)
You mean much hot air Tim? ;)
Tim: I used to be simply puzzled by Wills’ typographical tics, ranting and trolling but quickly ignored them. I also found John Allen’s astrological alarms curious but harmless and skipped lightly over them too. That’s the great thing about blogs: there is space for everyone’s contribution and each one of us can screen out the noise.
Then, by sheer dint of repetition, I started to think there’s something else going on with those two. I’m not sure who or what is motivating them but it is cyberactivism taken even beyond hacktivism into a kind of Dadaesque bending of reality and perhaps should really be considered a new art form. The closest description of what it seems they are trying to accomplish is given in Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mindfuck.
next you’ll be stalking me malcolm.
Malcolm McClure, an “art-form” it certainly is; spreading TRUTH, in whatever language, is a worthy endeavour. It is to be encouraged.
Let’s keep at it!
Tim: Picasso said “Art is a lie that reveals the truth.” but
Lenin said “A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
Which side are you on?
Risk Management – I requested to renew my fixed interest rate only to be told that the bank is awaiting the approval of the risk management for a decision. What strikes me on this is the word ‘risk’ how it is creeping into the vocabulary as if it were an everyday usage when before matters seemed simple .Am I to read that the element of real risk is a reflection on the bank as opposed to a good performing loan by the borrower?
Soon we will have in Irish Banks the risk counter , the risk cash teller, the risk customers ,the risk services , risk insurance , risk business and all of this increases charges on the ordinary customer.Maybe the developers section might be closed for good and under renovation….ha ha .
Will risk management peep into this site to evaluate the risk minds and will that attribute a new charge ?
JohnALLEN, we could levy every post and he who is richest could post mostest.
Posters, now that malcolm has ‘raised a red flag’ in front of me, demanding some type of censorship on two regulars postings i submit, malcolm, you are a sh1t stirrer,…….
My Godwinometer just went up a few notches.
Ooh, my Godwinometer just went up a few notches.
yeah, sorry for the double post, I blame the sluggish intertubes.
not atall liam.
Full Moon Rising – I am reminded of the old Irish Melody in the Lakes of Killarney – now Full Moons have another meaning …..lets go slow …think slow……eat slow food ..until after sunday .We will all be happy again after that .Moons wreck the minds and are dangerous.
wills, any person is free to belong to any organisation they wish, it’s a free country. But when that organisation is so stupid and corrupt that it leads the nation into bankruptcy, our young people into forced emigration, and fosters the very feudal structures you complain about, the membership of that organisation needs to be given a good root up the hole. They ALL joined in the BertieFest, what credibility do any of them have now?
None, in my book.
They, and their mickey-mouse, cute-hooer culture, are a very big part of the problem.
The only honourable thing for any FF member to do now is, in my view, beg forgiveness, and abandon this discredited, failed organisation.
Paddy.
Paddy, the ‘organisation’, is what it is, a political entity. The people in the entity are corrupt. Not all are corrupt. I suspect you are deciding all of them are corrupt in your assertions, (if not please correct me), the group tim is in is the non – corrupt. Now, maybe the ‘organisation’ is so drenched in corruption viz a viz it’s members in high numbers being corrupt, i can see why some would contend, FF ought to be disbanded, cos its a corrupted entity going forward to such a degree that it is irredeemable. This maybe the awful truth of it. Can FF be cleansed and renewed with the non corrupted members. tim asserts it can be, and tim is a member so he has boots on the ground there. Now, that said, members of FF have served office immorally. The entity FF remains a vessel of a poiitical credo and i believe if its credo you dispute and demand its extinction well fair enough, but, in a democracy functioning, all have a political right to representation, think of sinn fein for example.
paddythepig, I never joined in any “BertieFest”.
In fact, I argued against that man’s policies every single time I met him, since 1991. (to many times to count).
How often did you argue with him about his policies? If not too many times, your lack of opposition to him could, by your logic, constitute support.
Please refrain from making wild accusations and expressing unattested assumptions as if they were proven facts.
Tim,
I knew what Ahern was up to. I wanted him out of office because I knew he was interested in inflating the property bubble as much as possible, which was contrary to my goal of affording my own place. I registered my disapproval by voting for opposition parties each time.
I presume after cancassing for FF, you gave them your vote. This can only be interpreted as a vote for Bertie to be taoiseach, and for your friend Behan to be our local FF representative.
People in the FF family have broken away from FF and gone on to better things. Des O’Malley should be your inspiration if you feel FF leadership has let you down. I’m not having a go at you, but why do you feel you can’t let go from FF(considering your anti NAMA views etc…)? If more like you left FF, wouldn’t FF higher echelons have to wake up to it and change a few things?
I don’t mean to pick on your Tim, but you are a fascinating case studie because you are a representation of so many voters in Ireland.
*canvassing
*your local FF
Its like saying that you are a member of the KKK but don’t agree with racism and that some of your best friends are black . You also have a problem with people who dress in sheets . Don’t fully agree with burning crosses either . But somehow you just keep on going to the meetings . One day it will be different . Joining a civil rights group is not on the agenda as it never enters your head that maybe you are in the wrong group .
There’s the KKK….
Godwinometer is ready to burst!
Colin_in_exile, This will be my final post on this matter tonight – I am weary from it – but I do so, now, because I accept that you do not “mean to pick”.
>”I presume after cancassing for FF, you gave them your vote.”
= an unattested assumption, as I mentioned to Paddy. One should never “presume” to know what happens in a secret ballot.
>”Des O’Malley should be your inspiration if you feel FF leadership has let you down.”
= An incredible leap of your imagination that I could ever be “inspired” by the ethos of the PDs; it also suggests that you may have fixated on my FF thing only and not read the broad strokes of all my other posts.
>”but why do you feel you can’t let go from FF(considering your anti NAMA views etc…)?”
= I never said that “I feel I can’t let go from FF”; if anything, I have said that I often feel that I should leave, but I stay to keep trying.
>”If more like you left FF, wouldn’t FF higher echelons have to wake up to it and change a few things?”
= No. The “higher echelons” do not care a fig for what a “ship-jumper” thinks, or does, or wants. They care only a little more than a fig for what members of opposition parties think, or do, or want.
Whatever slight chance one has of changing any large organisation that one belongs to ( be-it in politics or business), one has NO chance at ALL of influencing change if one leaves. Imagine it: “Oh, someone who left our organisation wants us to change? An outsider wants to tell us what to do? Oh…… Okay, so; let’s do what the outsider wants.”
There is a battle raging within this party; an important battle, because the outcome will affect this country into the future. This party has been the most frequent Government-forming party since the foundation of the state – like it or not. It is excellent at two things: gaining power and holding onto power.
Despite the fact that, in the short-term, the current Parliamentary Party is doomed, the broader party will not only survive, but return to power (frequently!) in the future.
The battle is on for the “type” of party that will be. That party will form governments in the future that will legislate on how my children will be ruled when they grow up. It will rule over my future grandchildren.
How can I look my children in the eye, if I walk away from that battle?
I can’t. No surrender. Simple. Time to stand up, be counted and not get sidelined and ignored.
Now we can’t even be sure if Tim votes for FF . Maybe Tim is being held against his will by FF ?
Tim,
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate it. I just feel I need to clarify a few things, I don’t expect you to reply due to your weariness, but if you do, that’s great.
To suggest you don’t vote for the person you canvassed for is simply unbelievable. Its GUBU territory.
You do not have to have the same political beliefs as Des O’Malley to be inspired by his decision to leave FF. I’m not suggesting you adopt DO’M policies before you jump ship. My point was others in the FF Family were able to leave FF when they felt the leadership did not listen to them.
Higher echelons – I’m sure they’re laughing at you Tim. You’re like Boxer the horse in Orwell’s Animal Farm.
When will you reach the situation where you run out of energy supporting FF. You say you are weary from comments here, but Tim, this is only childsplay from the weariness you must encounter from the rebuffs to your change revolution inside FF by the higher echelons.
Peace.
Alan42, you got a clear rational answer above again, and you continue to sneer,
‘ Its excellent at two thing : gaining power and holding onto power ” Its just has a major problem and track record of running the country into the ground . Is rife with corruption and cronyism going right back to its founder .
Tim FF is over . The real reason you want the Greens to pull the plug is because you don’t want to deliver the next couple of budgets . Each one will be the final nails in the FF coffin . Each one will deliver more hardship than the last one . FF will murder whats left of the economy .
Well Wills I would sneer and would totally enjoy seeing FF eat itself alive but for the fact that it hasand will continue to inflict misery on millions of Irish people forcing them into poverty and emigration .
I spent 2 hours today on the phone looking for a job for an 18 year old Irish guy her in Oz . He was going to go to collage in Dublin but can’ t afford it as he would have to live away from home and his Father just lost his job . He can’t even find a part time job in Dublin to help support himself . He is also running out of money and will be on my couch this time next week . Any chance of a whip around for him ? A digout maybe ? An apology ?
Tim, did you vote for FF in the last election? Did you hand out leaflets, and knock on doors for FF?
If you did, you supported Bertie Madoff.
Thankfully I never met the tool. Your interpretation of my logic, as usual, is a bit distored.
And what exactly did you argue with him about?
Paddy
PMPA levies, Tax-Avoidance legislation, Tax-Amnesties for the rich (remember, there was only supposed to be ONE; but a second was, magically, conjured?), wheter or not he should become An Taoiseach, the Fitzpatrick Report of 1998, Benchmarking, the purchase of Trade Union bosses to sell-out their members, back-slapping Joe O’Toole and his ATM lie, Benchmarking 2, Thornton Hall purchase of agricultural land for €1 million/acre (just because it belonged to the family member of the Senator who sold-out the teachers), shafting McCreavy for putting money aside in the NTMA for our future, reducing teachers’ wages through purchasing-power-reduction with Social Partnership agreements that gave 1% “pay-increases” while inflation was 4.5%, Stamp Duty as a means of taxation, the mad-money being paid to the legal-eagles for Tribunals because the Greencore lad was bailed-out in the end, anyway, Ray Burke and Shell and the whole “up-every-tree-and-lamp-post” rubbush, his chief advisor being a brother of my TU general secretary and selling us out (upon whom we eventually had to do a “Roddy Molloy” to get rid of)……………………
…. that kinda thing, ya know.
Around that time, I gave up arguing with him, ’cause the whole gensec and-his-brother thing soured me; and I started trying to work from the bottom-up, instead of the top-down. “Gotta do SOMETHING”, right? Whittling-away for years, anyway I can (even now, here), spreading the word, trying to get people to put-their-money-where-their-mouth-is, all the time making slow progress from within, chipping-away at the lies and the spin, keeping at it……..
That’s the kinda thing, I argued with him about, Paddy, ya know?
That kinda thing.
As i thought. You met Bertie, and you whinged that you deserve a bigger payrise.
Admit it Tim. You had no clue that Bertie was driving the country into economic oblivion. You campaigned for Behan, who voted for Bertie. Now show a little humility, say sorry to the Irish people for being clueless, and for impoverishing them.
Paddy
Celestial Economics – recently I stated that the planet mercury ( communications ) is ascending again since wednesday and revelations would be made known…..lets count them….seanie has failed to make his interest payments…..rio de janero has been chosen for venue for olympics….referendum results to be made known shortly …more fas disasters revealed ….independent news refuses o briens offer and decides seperately ….and more to follow towards week end….these revelations changes goal posts as we once knew them to be and can be factored into production as quantum cognetics.
John ALLEN, may I add to your list of this week’s revelations?
The Green Party revealed its “shopping-list” to Fianna Fail. If it passes tomorrow-week at Green convention, with a 66.6% majority, the Greens must topple the government, if the Fianna Fail Parliamentary Party does not capitulate on the entire list.
Here is the link to the IT article wherein it was revealed to us, yesterday:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/1001/1224255614249.html
Now, there’s a “change of the goal posts”!
Adendum: Also if the convention does NOT pass it by 66.6%, the Greens must topple the Government anyway (according to GP internal rules, seemingly)!
Tim , let me get this right . I know you don’t answer questions but indulge me this once .
You are a member of a party that is the senior party in a coalition government . Are you hoping that the junior party pulls the plug on government forcing an election ?
Is this FF policy now ? Hang on , you don’t support FF policy . I am confused . Do you know support Green policy ? Any policies ? How do you stand on Communist party policy ?
Alan42, I simply hope that the item on the TOP of the list (reversal of education cuts) will be implemented. I am a teacher; I am also a father; so, reversing those cuts is of paramount importance to me.
(ps: I answered all your questions; and have no intention of wasting my time with this again.)
Tim , I have bad news . There is no money , no cash , the place is bust . Education cuts coming to a school near you thanks to FF economics .
Tim and on the subject of money . Any ideas yet on what happened to mine ? Did you give it to the FAS guy or am I paying some Ministers double pension ?
your question has been answered 3 times in 24 hours you loolaa.
ALan 42, are you really malcolm with a new signature.
Plus, how stuupiiid is it to think tim is the bookeeper over the taxpayers monies, are you for real.
had you pegged from the start, and you knew it.. another sh1t stirrer posing as a concerned punter. still have no clue as to who you vote for either. And before you prattle on for the rest of the night please put your details up, home number, etc, like tim did, in order to have an equal exchange. Somehow i douby you will, cos you are playing games really, right. Prove me wrong and stick your number up there.
I told you earier who I voted for . I am wearing drak blue boxers and if you want to take this offsite alanreynolds424242@gmail.com
wills, Malcolm McClure is never obtuse.
Alan42, walk the talk and put your telephone number up there and even out the stakes.
Goats – My goats have kids and when they grow up they want to join FF and become Llamas and act the clown loolas in circuses
John,
I’m sure Wills will take a dim view of your sneering.
put your email address up there, put your home address up there and details on your background alan, let’s see how serious you are on your ‘so called’ concern over tims membership of FF and tims spending of tax payers money.
Your bluffing Alan, your on here bluffing and creating a chilling effect, put your number up.
Wills,
Please, you’re acting like a school bully.
No one asked Tim to put up personal info. It was entirely his initiative. Its not a requirement to debate here, and I note you haven’t published yet (not that I want your details). Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to contribute here. You’re not the mediator.
colin, i’ve never done such a ghastly act in my life.
you call sneering at someones posts as legitimate posting, ,,,, i’d say you are badly mistaken.
over and out with you too colin.
Alan’s now inferring at his post 9.22pm that i’m a FF’r and am responsible for some chisler on his f’n couch from ireland looking for work. Listen alan, an 18 year old in oz is in my books LUCKY.
Well he does feel lucky . He wanted to do some science degree . He has little money and will be lucky to sweep the floor of some factroy given his visa restrictions . Will then probably try and have his visa extended by a year and go for permanent residency . All the while not going to collage . His sister is also here . Had to drop out of collage and his working in a coffee shop . She was doing some kind of business degree and is now underemployed in a strange country . Suppose it is character building though .
ALAN, still watiing for you to even the debating stakes and stick your telephone number up there,.. bottling out alan, looks like,,…
now alan at post 9.29 is ‘asking to go outside’..! so you are looking for a fight then alan,… i rest my case QED,.. over and out.
p.s where is your telephone number.
And with that last remake Wills I will now finish this as it has desended into a Joke . I hope you are happy with your fantasy battle with NAMA etc etc .
I’ll help deal with the thousands of young people arriving here from Ireland looking for work . I don’t even have much connection to the Irish community here and I think I have helped about 10 young Irish find work here so far .
okedok,.
OFFSITE , meaning not on this site . How would I fight you with me in oz and you in cloud cookoo land ?
Have i just wasted 2 days debating with 15 year olds who may be the same person ? I can never get that time back .
Wills,
I think you owe Alan an apology.
the oldest trick in the book, colin.
Alan : I told you earier who I voted for . I am wearing drak blue boxers and if you want to take this offsite alanreynolds424242@gmail.com
Wills : now alan at post 9.29 is ‘asking to go outside’..! so you are looking for a fight then alan,… i rest my case QED,.. over and out.
p.s where is your telephone number.
Alan : OFFSITE , meaning not on this site . How would I fight you with me in oz and you in cloud cookoo land ?
Now Wills, where’s the trick and where’s the apology?
in your imagination colin.
Wills,
I should have known better not to expect a straight answer from you.
I’m sorry I wasted my time on you.
No need . They / he have grinded me down . I now fully support FF but not their policies , TD’s or leadership .
Lets Focus – in the moment of now to Sunday …we have powerful celestial forces :
1) Great Revelations ; and
2) Full Moon ; and
3) Wobble
The above combination is too serious to ignore and each one magnifies the other .The full moon is both physical , informative,emotional and change making in a magnificant way greater than we ever knew before ,This week end is The Great Change and we are the spectators watching in awe of it’s magnificance.Lets experiance it and feel it in our veins with hair raising moments .Lets not be making secrets it is not happening because it is .This is REAL.
I’ve been following the NAMA debate on the Irisheconomy.ie website for a while, and it now appears from the Irish Times today as if Karl Whelan has reached His conclusions. see link :::http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1002/1224255669771.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1002/1224255669771.html
Jim, Thank you.
Looks like the “spin” is up; This was too big to “keep a lid on it”.
Then again, today was a “News-dump Day” and this truth may be lost in the Lisbon2 focus tomorrow?
Let’s try and keep it going.
I disagree Tim with this being a “news dump day”…after all the media ARE NOT allowed to discuss Lisbon 2 on polling day.However RTE etc. have spent what I would consider too much time today outside polling booths discussing turnout and waffling onn about projected turnout today versus the last vote..RTE’s obsession with Election /Political circus’s is starting to get a bit obvious,encouraging voters out ,fearing that a low turnout might favour a NO vote. Its all getting a little PRAVDA over there in Ireland ,do you think?????
jim, I really dunno anymore… everything is “spin”, over here, right now, but have a peek at this and let me know what you think:
Jesus:
http://url.ie/2k73
Where did they get the €45k figure from? I make it €89k?
jim, here is the actual spreadsheet of the expenses:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmB2HUQaR5vwdGIteDlnLXppdmtSWkV5MzhGUVU5R3c&hl=en_GB
It shows neary €90k claimed in expenses for “Foreign Travel”;
The rte report says JO’D cost the taxpayer €45k in “Foreign Travel” expenses.
I may be wrong, but I suspect that they are avoiding admission on the cost of “the wife”.
That might make up the difference.
What do you think?
@Tim re point below…My take on that whole story is that “THE BULL” is sure of His seat next time out as sitting Ceann Comhairle , so the spin Doctors at FF have decided to use Him to take a few bulletts for the team and deflect attention away from NAMA etc. I can read them like a book.
Folks, this is a crazy waste of time. We are, I hope, all here to exchange ideas in order that we may improve matters.
For the record: I have answered all the questions that were asked of me. But some people read a post that says, effectively, “I am trying to work hard to improve matters in the future for my own children and my students”, and turns that into “I am an idiot being laughed at for my “I will work harder” efforts in the Orwellian style and subversion of the democratic secret ballot by, even, discussing a challenge about how one exercises their secret-ballot franchise. I never suggested how I vote; I merely said the ballot is secret, so assumptions are futile.
On the subject of the 18 yr old person in Oz, my heart will break if my son has to leave our country to get work.
I will not give him up without fighting to the death – “inside”, “outside”, or “all-around” any political party or parties/diplomacy/networking/team-building, etc., etc., whatever your new “business-speak” happens to be this week.
I will NOT give up, EVER, until I am DEAD.
I had to leave to get work to pay my college fees and my accomodation every summer, for four years (we had to pay fees, then.)
I went back to the land of my birth: America, every Summer, to work my way through College. I do not think that is a bad thing, though it was difficult to do.
It was 1985; Let’s see what “EVIL” party was in power at the time, that “forced” an 18 yr old to leave these shores to forge a future………?
Ah!
I’m afraid the answer does not suit the purpose of some people here, so ye will not accept it……. (whisper: it was a Fine Gael government that forced THIS 18 yr old to work to put himself through Uni.)
Do I hate or blame them for it?
Nope.
John ALLEN is right (he always is), take it easy; slow down. What has been happening on here the last two days is a wobble. It will pass; and reasoned discourse will return after the final “flurry” that will come with Lisbon results.
Why not drop the erroneous assertions and arguments and focus on what to do about NAMA?
Let’s keep at it!
Tim, go learn a little history. You obviously can’t shake off the effects of getting the FF lobotomy.
FYI .. The main domestic contributor to the recession of the 80′s was the gobshite Jack Lynch / Charlie Haughey governments from 1977 to 1981.
They completely lost control of public spending, and it took the country 15 years to recover from their stupidity.
Paddy
Paddy, maybe you should learn some history!
Garret was the Taoiseach when I had to leave.
He also, still, supports the AIB bank that wrote off his loan for bad investments, to the tune of £200,000 back in the ’80s.
That was like MILLIONS, today.
So….. cut it out.
Have to agree with Paddy on this one Tim.Lynch /Haughey had massive deficit spending ,best take Faulty tower advice on this one “dont mention the War” or when you find yourself in a hole “stop digging” p.s. lots of people went to work in US during the 80′s for the Summers. Better money to be had, even better if you were legal and had US passport. Having said all that I’M sure Cowen would be proud of your defense of the Party, i’ll give you a mention when I talk to Him again.
Ah, jim, Don’t go “Apache” on me! I will go to Bodenstown and tell him what I think, in person. I dunno…. these boyos invite me to these things and some I go to and some I don’i. But I tell them the truth of what I think at all meetings – grass roots agree with me.
Change is coming!
Get a nice group photo taken while your there and in years to come you can play a game with your friends at Christmas……call it “where are they now” LOL Goodnight .Sleep well.
Dear Lord Tim, the effects of that lobotomoy are more severe than I thought.
But fair play to you for going out to bat for the FF club ; I bet they’re delira with you.
Paddy
http://photoshopcontest.com/images/fullsize/100721571b515196f2d931aee786cfd9b5ced9b8079756.gif
Tim,
Your politics are fascinating.
Assumptions are futile? Yes, good one, I’ll remember that one next time I’m at home and the Canvassers call. Only with Tim will you find a canvasser volunteering personal info on a website on his own initative, without being asked, yet declining to confirm his personal voting after publicly advocating others to vote for his preferred candidate. Tim, you’re priceless.
We now know you are in FF for the benefit of your children’s future at the expense of others’ children, so they probably won’t have to emigrate. I’m sure Behan & co will return the favour, pull a few strings, Bob’s your Uncle.
You obviously won’t leave FF come hell or high water, the kind of loyalty Cowen thrives on. Its a shame because I think you have a lot to offer, but your energies are misplaced.
Colin_in_exile, more unattested assumptions.
I know my “energies are misplaced”, from your perspective.
Do you have a better vehicle for those energies?
Do you have a more efficient way of changing the “party-of-power”?
I hasten to learn it from you……..
Tim,
Yes, believe it or not, I have the solution for you.
You round up all your like minded FF folk, including Behan, you all resign from FF, you form a new party, you set out your stall, you try to welcome as many people as possible from both inside and outside FF, you draft a charter of party ethics, and you wait to see what happens.
Colin_in_exile
We cannot use the word “solution” in application to something that has not a snowball’s hope in Hell of ever happening.
“Solutions”, by their nature, must be possible and reasonable.
David on your final point about Investors fears……Well its true that the ratings agencies (whether credible or not) have decided to put AIB and and BOI on credit watch with a possible view for a downgrade and while AIB did launch an un-guaranteed bond in the order of 1.3 billion(3 year) recently ,the offer was over subscribed by a factor of 3. I think the offer was 250 bps over mid-swaps. So its like the old story ,if your prepared to pay a bigger coupon,you will get takers. However as you and I both know,that after NAMA is signed off on ,AIB et al will be forced to pass onn these higher cost onto borrowers.What all this means for those of you not familiar with Bonds is AIB have borrowed at 250 bps or 2.5% over mid-swaps or roughly 2.1% which varies from time to time, meaning their total cost of borrowing was 2.5 + 2.1 =4.6%. So AIB will charge borrowers at least 1% if not more above this,say 6% approx. I can see how a jump from “interest only” to 6% +capital maybe the breaking point for some Buisnesses who are just about threading water at the moment. When this is combined with other debts I can see a secong wave of problems for the Banks and their Capital positions,and hence the Investors fears. Jasus David,,,, Linehan really needs to step back from the plate here,these numbers are way past the type of stroke politics that have served FF well for so long. Fiscal deficit of 20 billion plus….NAMA 51.3 billion with the Interest alone, on that projected to swallow up almost 18% of total tax take “moving forward as Cowen like’s to say now. With a possible further tranche of billions needed to clear up Anglo and billions more for further re-cap of the main Banks to meet the second wave of impaired credit,car,personal etc. loans…Jasus man they will “have a path bet ” to the ECB repo window aswell as the hat being passed around umteen times to the Diaspora et al……..Answers please on a postcard for them bad boy’s..
jim, very clever……. you may wll be right. Make a big deal about that today, looks like a newsdump and gets tongues wagging…….
jim, very clever……. you may well be right. Make a big deal about that today, looks like a newsdump and gets tongues wagging…….
Ooops! Apologies for that…… I tried to correct my mis-spelling of “well” in mid-send……
So it posted twice.
That’s REALLY gonna screw with Malcolm’s stats!
I beg Pardon.
One of those…….. “sendus-interruptus”….. jobs…..
Again, I beg Pardon. (sorry about the “stats”).
‘Told ye that ye “would not accept it”, BTW.
I knew.
But I said it, anyway.
Soory about the stats there, Malcolm.
Ooops!
“sorry”, that should have been.
Oops, Malcolm. I apologise.
Listening to RTE 1. The results are coming in, and they confirm the polls taken last week. The commentary from Michael Martin is the most hilarious – apparently, the Irish have been better informed this time. Well, if this is the case, then this did not occur as a reult of FF’s statements in the last month. In fact FF’s Dick Roche was completely absent for the last month.
The entire referendum has been an intellectual disaster – it turned out to be series of repeated emotive rants. The debates all ended up as a series of button pressing exercises. Coir were probably the most ridiculous, but the ‘mainstream’ parties showed that they could do it also. Eoin Ryan, is talking, and he talks about “information deficit”. I think this is the current FF leadership phrase. “Informtion deficit ” is an interesting term. There seems to be a massive “information deficit” concerning Anglo Irish Bank, the property bubble, NAMA, INBS, the Permo loan, at the moment in the FF leadership – but the people are not supposed to chastise FF.
I think the Lisbon 2.0 campaign deserves a study to examine how exactly money is turned into a result in electoral terms. What we have learned is that there is a massive amount of fear in Ireland concerning the economy. The economy was dragged into a debate on political structures, in a manner that has become farcical. In fact, there will be no analysis of how the result was attained. So for the historical record, it is important that some intellectual honesty, at the very least is invested in documenting the campaign.
Its not like the campaigns were any better the last time around. I think you’ve raised a pertinent point about the intellectual level of the debate, but there is always a great number of people who will not be reached by well constructed arguments.
its a bit like Ganley and the Shinners claiming responsibility for the original ‘no’ vote, an assertion that is not reflected in the polling for either of them.
Anyway, its done now and a line can be drawn under Lisbon one way or another and we can get on to the next crisis on the menu…
An interestng comparison of NAMA and TARP, from Dave Reilly at Blomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aG5x6l_.XT8Y
Liam. NAMA as a copy for TARP will only work, if the conditions are identica. I do not know anything about TARP.
The US has enormous physical resources, from it’s landmass, and it’s security holdings, including Fort Knox. The US can print it’s currency and inflate it’s debts. There is a strong movement of people on the internet which beleives this is occurring. The US is too big to fail.
But Ireland is in a very different situation.
And the US authorities have done far more to clean up their banking systems. There has been no clean up in the Irish banking system.
Very true, but the point being made in the article is the US ditched the NAMA approach in favour of something more like what the UK Government did with RBS and HBOS. What the likes of our host and Karl Whelan are suggesting isn’t a million miles away from the UK exchequer’s approach either, at least in terms of the risk profile for the taxpayer.
Indeed, the bottom line of any argument is Corporate Governance. One way to deal with the banks is a “night of the long knives” approach (involving significant Government and judicial intervention, and possibly another endless tribunal), another is to ultimately change the parameters of the game and force the banks to operate as sustainable commercial entities. NAMA of course, does neither.
I completely forgot to mention: I agree, Ireland is in a totally different position in terms of the levers it has available to pull, and a big difference is that Ireland has the ECB to fall back on as lender of last resort. As our host pointed out back in February, as part of the Eurozone, Ireland also cannot fail.
Agree Deco.
Looking like too me the lisbon farce in the end amounted too another ‘talking shop’ exercise across the whole of the political / economic spectrum.
What seems to becoming clear , to me, is different battles are been fought along the different lines and the jamboree fest, which we had an example of last night on here, of pie throwing, and mock staging, and feigned concern to spark dramarama’s for whatever personal side show’s is drowning out the simple facts which whether one is pro lisbon. or FF’r, or in exile, or waving this flag, or whatever the flying fish. that, there are a crony elite operating out of this country and they are in control, whomever they are, and about to pull the biggest bank job on this country the likes of which we have never before seen.
Karl whelan, in irish times, yesterday, is finally getting to the point with NAMA and it all about the bonds, the ecb cash for the bonds and the cash disappearing into the ether, and on monday morning after the week end lisbon jamboree is over the reaity of NAMA and the 54 billion bank robbery under way.
Wills – ‘jamboree fest’ – an interesting concept. It is a pity the politicians would not put so much energy and professional research into understanding the nature of the economy, instead of the nature of the electorate. But then I suppose understanding the electorate is their core competency. And understanding the economy is simply beyond them !!!!
The ECB – NAMA – Irish Banks – Irish government ponzi scheme is in operation. The debts are mounting and will stay there until they paid off. FF ministers get pensions. And the rest of us get stuck with paying taxes to eliminate it.
Deco, if anything relating to fear, economy and shock doctrine / scare mongering what we all have learnt is who FF regard as their whip lashers and fire starters and shock doctors to intimidate the voters into a YES.
Suddenly, chirpy charlie dick roche is back on RTE having a good ‘ol jamboree chuckle wuckle with ganley.
Alright – Economics.
The exchequer figures are worse than expected. (And I presume the expected figures were adjusted several times). No comment yet from Lenihan.
Rio won the Olympics bid. This is a first for South America. Rio is one of the BRIC countries. And Brazil now has the World Cup as well. There are rumours about both the IOC and FIFA being rotten with corruption. So we can presume that Brazil can mix it with the best of them. This is a significant shift on the richter scale.
There were some minor stories about Anglo-Irish Bank and the interest in Seanie’s loan. While the rest of us are dealing with income levies, health taxes, stealth taxes, cutbacks, and various taxes – it seems that Seanie has got a continued exemption on that 100 Million Euro loan. I expect another PR exercise from the Greens in respect of this area.
NAMA – the FF leadership will now turn their attention to the NAMA bill and the banks. We can expect a tough, behind the doors, CJH style campaign of suppression of dissent within FF. And Tim will be able to tell us more about this, because his mate Joe Behan will get this hard and heavy from Cowen, Dempsey etc…
The issue of funding the bad debt hole in both INBS and EBS is going to come up fast. Morgan Kelly, UCD, has already been warning people about the state of INBS, and he has been ignored. The situation within INBS requires NAMA to subsidize INBS very fast.
Nothing has been done about industrial or traded services competitiveness. There have been a few minor issues, but nothing significant.
One result of the IT revolution was a flattening of the hierarchies in organizations, and a dramatic increase in both efficiency and effectiveness. In the public sector this is forbidden. Instead we have cutbacks in the front line area. The union bosses and the politically appointed management in the public sector have a very comfortable consensus. They do not want to reform the structures. There is an institutional culture against any form of reform. There is an institutional bias to continue the culture of amatuerism and nepotism.
Effectively this makes it impossible any reduction in the public sector bill. Reducing pay is not necessary to reduce the public sector bill. What is necessary is a massive redesign of the bloated hierarchies controlling it and preventing real people doing an effective job. FF and Labour are both tied into this. The PDs and the Greens have also used their access power to get involved in this also. Effectively the state behaves in a manner that shows that it has primacy over the citizenry. Despite all the talk about a modern Ireland, we are still held down by this lazy, selfish, nepotistic culture. This effectively controls the Dail. It will take a very significant change in the analysis of our political system, before this reform will occur.
Deco, agreed on all points.
The final two paragraphs on post 11.59, very key points,. indeed, judging by the volatility of this faultline on frontline last week it is a keg od dynamite ‘waiting to explode’.
The flat earth arrived to private and not to public sector and these two seperate cultures are both of their roles in the overall crony elite super structure is explosive. There appears to be a fight for supremacy underway as NAMA is been juggernauted through.
It has a look about it that both sectors / tribes / networks are vying for new ground post NAMA and this power struggle maybe the achilles heel and in some way precipitate an earthquake kyboshing the NAMA bank job.
Maybe the movie “the ladykillers” (peter sellers) provides the answers.
Deco.
David made a very clear concise assertion on the ‘clearing out of the rot’ on video link, relating too banks, and attested the fact if its non – event.
On the ‘reform’ and hope for reform my conclusion on that is, reform in this country, due to extent of rot and corruption and debasement will arrive but not through any inside agents. Reform will arrive though and in a way these band of shysters, crooks and snake oils men will not be able to precog.
Ireland Inc ( Captive State in Liquidation)
ref: €90B
Directors: FF Cabinet
MD Brian Lenehan
Chairman : Brian Cowen
Creditors : International Bondholders
Secured by Charges on All Irish Taxpayers and Passport Holders that are now deemed indentured as Irish Slaves indefinately to Deep Black Vortex PLC ( under stewardship of ECB )
Salaries Paid by Ireland Inc to : FF Cabinet more than any European Politicians :
Expenses Paid: Incredible &Massive Amounts including loads to Johnny Cash- easy criminal
Pensions : Golden Balls , Golden Handshakes ,Ooodle Mc Coodles Funds Infinate .
Remuneration paid to Irish Taxpayers : NONE ( actually instead the taxpayers paid (to Revenue Funds) in more than they were told in fact lots more than they can afford.
Auditors of the State: Well Lads there is no law against crime ( wink) .What do you want to know?
Bondholders reference number : Mafia Omerta c/o Don Corleon
——————————————
Irish Banks FCUKed
Ref: €90B trf to a captive fund
Directors : Resigned , Kicked ~~Out, Ran Away,Puppeteers , awaiting restatement of an honest new Board.
Salaries Paid: Gold Plates, Cars,Rolex Watches,Loads of ‘X Euros’ (wink),Sun Tan, Olive Oil, Casinos ,SA Randy Money,and free Rugby Tickets .
Auditors Notes: Forgot to spot the Millions of Directors Loans given to Directors ….amm we dont know if they are performing or not .
Auditors Remuneration: Millions Millions and more and more
Performance : Worlds Worst
Reliability: Cool Criminals
On NAMA.
Who owns the toxic loans?
Banks.
Who lended out the toxic loans?
Banks.
Who profited from the lending.
Banks.
Who took the risk on the decision to lend out the loans.
The taxpayer.
Why not the banks, it’s their loans. It’s their
business. They own the loans, they lended out the loans they took the risk didn’t they?
But this is not capitalism. This is not the reward – risk formula of capitalism.
What’s going on. It’s legal to pass the cost of bad decisions onto others without asking them for consent.
What the hell!
But i don’t want too!
I do not want to pay for someone else.
SHUT THE FCUK UP OR ELSE.
‘Democracy’ at work in the ‘Republic’ of Ireland 2009.
Signed,
a concerned taxpayer, wondering what’s next.
Don’t forget the punters who took out the loans as well wills – specifically those building their ‘portfolio’ at the expense of the first time buyer. It’s not just the developers fault, but manys the average Joe out there as well.
The first time buyer regrettably was, and still is, bottom of the pile in terms of priority.
Paddy
Folks, In case you are interested, here is a link to the (redacted) FAS internal Audit:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/20574785/FasInternalAudit1
Afternoon everyone, David here.
Can I make a suggestion, many people have emailed into the site to say that, while they love following the responses, in recent weeks there have been tangential arguments going on which sometimes move well off-topic. They find this distracting and I tend to agree with them. So by all means lets discuss and debate but also try to keep on the subject and maybe less of the insults.
All the best, David
David, good afternoon.
i will do so.
But, if a poster comes on twisting another’s post, or, making up an insult to slur the poster and throw people off the person’s post, i.e the personal attacks on tim, it’s very difficult to stay silent ‘cos it has the look of complicity about it, particularly if the attacks are of a virulent nature.
I submit David, due to the most excellent contribution tim inputs into the forum here, he is being put under deliberate chilling effect. (just because he posted info of a personal nature does not open him to visceral attack. Maybe the moderator could remove certain items of info on tim’s request.
Please respond to this.
Tim is big enough and ugly enough to look after himself, as to the rest, Don’t feed the trolls.
‘Evening David.
I full accept your suggestion and apologise for my own involvement in the distractions you refer to.
Any such posts that you may want Ronan to remove will be fine by me; I will defer to your judgement on the matter.
Kind regards,
Tim.
ps.: Let’s keep at it!
Oh, Look:
In Britain, they can find no evidence that the “Bonus culture” in the Banks had any bearing, whatsoever, upon the bank’s success or failure:
http://banklawblog.wordpress.com/2009/09/29/bonuses/
I have a question about this:
Why bother paying bonuses, at all, so?
David,
First of all, its great to hear that you take the time to read the posts, believe it or not, it means a lot.
Secondly, I’m guilty of going off topic. Sorry about that. Guidelines to be adhered to would be helpful.
Thirdly, I’ve respect for almost everyone here, including many who I disagree with.
Fourthly, any comment to make on attempts by one bully here asking others to submit personal details before they’re allowed to contribute further?
Colin , I think we are both a bit guilty . Well I was really guilty of being being off topic and going over the top ., distracting from the debate and making the forum less enjoyable that it should be for others . I am sorry but the thing about Tim is that I figure he will seek office one day and I would actually like to be proud of my country rather than seeing images of famine sculptures and soup kitchens in forgign media whenever they report on Ireland . But it was the wrong forum . Maybe we leave it at that and move on ?
Ok very final word . My post could be misread as as me thinking that Tim would be unfit for office . Actually the reverse would be true . I also knew he never had my money .
Alan,
Mediator has acclaimed one of your posts. I’m sure you’ve a lot to offer here. Just screen out the poster who is rising you, and remember to take David’s advice on board.
You’re outside looking into Ireland, a valuable perspective. I’d love to know what foreigners think of the way Ireland has been handling its economy. Any German schoolteachers watching here, would you like to tell us your views?
Alan, I agree with Colin_in_exile here ( as I tried to suggest, I think, on Friday night).
We need all the perspectives we can get.
Let’s keep at it.
Colin , who is ‘ Mediator ‘ do they post or have they something to do with the site ? I am not up on internet speak .
Alan,
Its a good question. I wonder if its the same thing as moderator, because that’s what I presumed it was until now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_forum#Moderator
Moderator/Mediator, can you shed some light on this please?
Colin’s off again making scandel to distract.
Folks, I found this on Politics.ie: Statement by Eamonn Gilmore……
GILMORE SEEKS MEETING OF PARTY LEADERS TO CONSIDER O’DONOGHUE EXPENSES CONTROVERSY
I am very concerned at the damage that is being done to office of Ceann Comhairle and to the body politic by the continuing controversy surrounding expenses incurred by Deputy John O’Donoghue both during his previous tenure as a Minister in the Fianna Fail government and in his current period as Ceann Comhairle.
All members of the Oireachtas incur expenditure in carrying out their functions and it is entirely appropriate that they should be recompensed for that. There is also perfectly legitimate expenditure associated with the official functions and duties of office holders. This includes cost of overseas travel, when officially representing the country abroad.
The Labour Party believes that those travelling abroad to represent Ireland, whether they be government Ministers or Ceann Comhairle are entitled to do so with a reasonable degree of dignity and comfort. We also accept that certain expenses and costs will necessarily be incurred by the Chairman of Dail Eireann as part of the routine links that are maintained between national parliaments.
However, the disclosures over recent months, including the documents placed in the Dail Library on Friday, would appear to suggest a pattern of extravagance which is unacceptable to the taxpayers who are paying the Bill.
I have been cautious to date about commenting on this controversy because of my respect for the independence of office of Ceann Comhairle. I have also acknowledged that Deputy John O’Donoghue has discharged his duties as Ceann Comhairle in the Dail in a fair and impartial manner.
However, I am concerned that if the current controversy continues serious damage further damage will be done to the office of Ceann Comhairle, to the Dail and to our democratic system.
There is therefore a necessity on the Dail to consider how this problem should be dealt with. This week I will be seeking a meeting of the Leaders of all the political parties to consider how the controversy now surrounding the Ceann Comhairle should be appropriately addressed and what further steps need to be taken to restore public confidence in the operation of the Oireachtas.”
ENDS.
This could cause interesting new developments, while businesses are struggling to hold onto employees, employees are trying to hold onto their jobs and houses, just after a repeat referendum campaign (paid for by whom?); now a potential bi-election looms…….
Unless, of course, my earlier prediction comes true in the next few weeks and a General Election is called for early 2010.
I do not want the outcome of the investigation into JO’D's expenses to be, simply, that he leaves the chair of Dail Eireann; I want the outcome to be a focus on the expenses claims of ALL Oireachtas members, followed by a change in expenses procedures.
Of course, all the other members would prefer to offer JO’D as a sacrifice and move on without further revelations about all of them.
That is not the way it should happen.
Folks, I got this from Stephen Kinsella.
He says: “Here are the ESRI’s projections for the effects of expenditure cuts on the economy. Read this-not the spin around it”:
http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20090403095300/WP287.pdf
Folks, This time…… will never be different:
http://blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2009/10/this-time-will-never-be-different/
jim, this one’s for you; should we try this “up-skilling” of TDs here? Have you seen this at work?
http://www.pc.gov.au/research/economic-models-frameworks/cost-benefit-discount
“Too Connected to Fail”:
http://baselinescenario.com/2009/10/02/too-connected-to-fail/
I reckon we have a bit too much of that here; isn’t that our “crony-capitalism” friend, again?
In fact, I think that the Irish could teach them.
The phrase “Too well connected to fail” has me laughing uncontrollably. I really nails these corrupt nepotistic networks with a perfect description. From the IT perspective, and from knowing people who drifted on into IT roles for the banks, there are some hilarious stories. People with the right credentials (in the area sports club credentials, rather than academic or vocational acheivements) running the show.
This layer is controlling Irish society.
I have a theory – the scale of the Yes vote is directly relational to the level of personal debt in absolute terms in each constituency. So the mortgage debt in working class areas, and in places like the Atlantic constituencies.
Well, there now is a way of making people tow the line !!! Maybe if I get time off in December, I will create a study on this :))))
By my reckoning, society will always progress, abundance, abundance,abundance, how is it allocated? Who controls its allocation. Does it get allocated. And, where are you on the list in the allocation. And are you doing the allocation, if so, you can do anything you like, you are too connected too fail.
Archimedes – the weight of the ignorance in a body of liquid is equal to the weight of the debts it creates
if you include bankers its equal to 10 times the debt it creates