Time to wind down the banks

September 14, 2009


Last Thursday, the share price of Bank of Ireland rose by 10 per cent following the announcement by the Green Party that it had secured amendments to the Nama bill, which might allow the party to support it.

The shares rose again by 9per cent last Friday. What other evidence do we need that this travesty will result in a direct transfer of wealth from the taxpayers of Ireland to the shareholders of the Bank of Ireland?

The financial markets are telling us exactly what is happening. The taxpayer will bail out the shareholders of our big banks who would have been wiped out if it weren’t for Nama. Why should a democratic government broker a deal which bails out stockholders and unsecured bond holders, both of whom have no right to be treated with such generosity?

Your guess is as good as mine. The markets realise that Nama is going to pay over the odds for the loans and then through a rather clumsy use of the ECB’s discount window, the banks get financed.

My fear is not what has already been said about the transfer of wealth from us to them, but the extent of it.

Now that the banks realise that they don’t have to worry about the bad loans they made in their relentless pursuit of profit, where will they stop? What is to stop them putting every bad loan into Nama?

In fact, how can we be sure that, in future, the banks will not use Nama as a large skip for their bad loans, from today’s developer loans to defaults on mortgages, car loans, credit cards and kitchen extension loans? Why wouldn’t they?

Every time they repackage and roll up their ‘‘across the board’’ defaults into one large digestible block, they will simply drop it into Nama and – guess what? – their share price will rise again. Because the new bank bosses, like the old bank bosses, will be paid bonuses related to the share price of their companies, they will have a personal and institutional incentive to continue hurling their rubbish into the skip.

So the banks have engineered yet another one-way bet. In the boom, there was the ‘‘property can only go up’’ bet. They borrowed all they could from other European banks, safe in the knowledge that they were becoming ‘‘too big to fail’’ but were assured that they would never be ‘‘too big to bail’’. The reason they were assured of this is that is how Ireland works.

We use our bond market not as an innovative way to finance development, but as a tip where we hide the mistakes of the present and lumber the next generation with the bill. This is what we are now doing and it is despicable.

And who will be the real beneficiaries of all this? Some Canadian bank or other foreign bank? Foreign banks will come in and buy our banking system when the Irish taxpayer has absorbed all of the mistakes of the past five years. They will get banks in a first world country at third world prices, with the added insurance that all the debts have been taken off their books by a pliant and shell-shocked population.

And do you know who will make sure this happens? The very investment banks which are advising the government now. The investment banks make their fees on arranging deals and they will lead the government up the Nama garden path with both eyes firmly on their exit strategy of a sale to some other investment bank.

Then what will happen is the old banks will charge way over the odds for banking in Ireland, so that they can pay the state back the levy the state imposes on them at the end. But who pays the banking levy?

We do – the poor bloody customers. So we will get taxed twice. We will get taxed on the proportion of the Nama rubbish which is tossed onto the national debt and we’ll be taxed again to pay for the levy. That’s if we get that far before a public debt crisis in Ireland.

The Carroll decision in the High Court last week will be important because the Dutch farmers’ bank that owns ACC may yet decide to opt for a fire sale of some assets in Ireland. The reason they will do this is (a) to get out of Ireland as quickly as possible and (b) to preserve their AAA status and not risk contamination from their association with Ireland.

Any sale will prove that the mantra ‘‘there is no market’’ is a lie. There is a market; it is just a very cheap one. This will give us an idea of the extent of the overpayment and, by the unforgiving logic of finance, the extent of our wealth transfer to shareholders.

You couldn’t make this stuff up. A much cleaner and fairer idea would be to wind down the banks now. Before we do this, we’d have to go to the ECB and argue that Nama is the wrong way of going about things. We value the ECB’s liquidity and believe there is amore productive way of using it.

When the guarantee goes next October, or when we announce that we will not continue it, the foreign banks that have provided liquidity to our domestic banking system will run for the door. To prevent the system seizing up, we need liquidity from somewhere else.

So why not say to the ECB: forget the Nama bonds, just replace the short-term liquidity that will flee the country. This way we can negotiate with the bank creditors in an orderly fashion and create a new banking system out of the old one. The shareholders, unsecured, and senior bond holders would take the hit.

The ECB injects liquidity into the system so that the system doesn’t freeze up and, in return, it is off the hook from the nonsense that is the Nama bonds. We institute a deposits guarantee and begin to wind up our banks.

It is at this stage that we go to the foreign banks and ask them would they like to be partners in a new bank. The government is therefore a broker in the deal, rather than a principal.

We sell the banks’ branch network and some other assets. The creditors get this cash. Then we start again. The developers are declared bankrupt and off we go.

No Nama, no old banks, no debts, no problem. By the way, it’s not radical, it’s called capitalism.




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117 Comments. Most recent comments first.
  1. cnocaoibhinn says:

    David , keep up the good work, you were one of the very few
    reaching out to the younger people during the tiger years, showing them that “credit is not harvest”
    al the best

  2. Tim says:

    Folks, I just learned on Vincent Browne’s show that Dermot Desmond agrees with David here. The banks should be left to deal with their own toxic assets.

    Sorry, I didn’t catch which paper it will be printed in; if I can find it tomorrow, I will post the link, unless one of you caught it?

    This surprises me, confuses me, somewhat, but delights me as well: I thought Desmond was “eastablishment” to his core, so I expected that he would support NAMA and make money fleecing it – hence my confusion (is there something I am missing here?).

    I am delighted because, when such a person, respected by the establishment opposes NAMA, it gives me hope that it may be halted before it gets out of the traps.

    Or is this just more obfuscation and befuddlement?

  3. jim says:

    Twas the night before NAMA and all through the house,not a creature was stirring ,not even a mouse…………..Sean Fleming FF said today that the ECB were picking up the tab for NAMA and it wont cost the Taxpayers a cent !!!!!!……Thomas Byrne FF said today that the money from the ECB was “quantitive Easing” for Ireland !!!!!!……….Brian Cowen FF said today without NAMA ireland faced stagnation !!!!! …….John o’ Donoghue FF said today “But I have also explained that these were costs paid to service providers on my behalf, these were not costs which were paid to me”…”I profited nothing out of it”. !!!!!!!………..I could go on but Im starting to get cramps in My stomach listing to this stuff, and its been that way for such a long time now…. They say there’s lies and then there’s damned lies which just about covers the first three,but what can you say about the logic behind John o’ Donoghue’s statement…if you were being polite you could say it belonged on a car sticker in Sicily……..Ah well Ireland is different…….its da fudamantals as Bertie use to say………bye the bye I hear our auld buddy Roddy Molloy is now Chairman of some committee thats lists its responsibilities as overseeing standards in public office,that report from the Controller and Auditor General listing Donoghues lifestyle sat on His desk for three months before it appeared in the Dail Library or some such. Am I just being cynical or is this NAMA period “a good time to bury bad news”…….P.S. Mary Coughlan FF said nothing again today……silver lining,always look for the silver lining.

    • tirnanog33 says:

      Jim, you are spot on. The campaign/propoganda blitz is in full swing.Sean Fleming is almost a “plant” to use gangster parlance. A “double agent” for the Soldiers propaganda blitz. “NAMA wont cost the taxpayers a cent” Audacious but brilliant. Goebells never died. His style and techniques live on with the Destiny Soldiers in this historic time of great catastrophe and ruin for our own nation.
      What was propaganda rule number onefor goebells in the other “Third Reich”?
      “The bigger the lie, the more likely it is to be believed.”!

      “Goebbels’s shrewd political instinct and his opportunism were demonstrated by his switch to Hitler’s side in 1926, which was rewarded by his appointment in November of the same year as Nazi district leader for Berlin- Brandenburg. By 1927 he had already become the most feared demagogue of the capital city, fully exploiting his deep and powerful voice, rhetorical fervour and unscrupulous appeal to primitive instincts. Goebbels knew how to mobilize the fears of the unemployed masses as the Great Depression hit Germany, playing on the national psyche with ‘ice-cold calculation’. ”
      I particularly like this quotation from the other Master of Propaganda (Goebells -not Fianna Fail )
      He declared not long before his death: ‘We shall go down in history as the greatest statesmen of all time, or as the greatest criminals.’

      More on Fianna Fail tactics at;
      http://www.goebbels.info/goebbels-goebbels.htm
      fascinating.

  4. tirnanog33 says:

    Oh, and notice how Cowan knows how to:
    “mobilize the fears of the unemployed masses as the Great Depression hit Ireland, playing on the national psyche with ‘ice-cold calculation’. ”
    We must vote for the Lisbon treaty or all is lost etc. etc.
    Brilliant!

  5. Tim says:

    Folks, here is tghe Dermot Desmond anti-NAMA article:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0916/1224254639563.html?via=rel

    Any of it seem familiar to you?

    Interesting………..

  6. MK1 says:

    I read Morgan Kelly’s article. He uses two other bubbles to forecast that property vaues here should drop by 66% from their peaks (inflation adjusted I think), which is all very plausible.

    One thing that has been pointed out by many is that NAMA could overpay for the real market value of properties. However, one aspect not reiterated that much is with NAMA operating (shudder the thought), that because they will have large market dominance and be able to control supply of a lot of property, it will cause prices to be floored and rise above that which they would have been otherwise without such a monopolistic entity. Thus, anyone buying property post-NAMA will be paying OVER what the market rate would have been otherwise.

    This is like a ‘stealth’ tax, and hence taxpayers will lose one way or the other with NAMA, and most likely BOTH ways.

    I also read Dermot Desmonds article. His main point is that Banks have lost access to liquidity and are hence frozen. However, I dont agree with him that the loss of access to liquidity is the CAUSE of property values falling. Yes, it could be said that if our banks had been able to keep doubling their bets with inter-bank lending that the ponzi scheme could have continued, but this is naivety. Liquidity and credit availability made our problem worse but the answer is not more credit availability.

    I agree that we do need liquidity in banks that operate here. He surmises that we have to support Irish banks, because European banks have their own problems to deal with in their domestic markets. Well, we could put that to the test Dermot, shall we?

    Lets say we remove the guarantees from BOI and AIB tomorrow. Then they become insolvent. I bet there would be European bankers willing to get them for next to nothing as long as they wouldnt have to take on the toxic loans. And they could do this by buying the performing parts of the banks business, the branch network, retail operations, etc. Dermot, your liquidity would be solved overnight as other EU banks would come in, pick over the bones of our broken banks, take the bits they wanted and operated banking here.

    We all have to remember, as members of the EU club we are all part of the ECB. There is only one central bank, the ECB. Any Euro-based bank has a licence to operate in Ireland. So we should be thinking about European banks, not “Oirish” banks, providing credit to our business market. Supporting our sick Irish banks is actually preventing and blocking othgerwise good banks from coming in. Its madness.

    Even FF/GP etc should realise that we are members of Euro-land and the EC since they are big into Lisbon re-run, right?

    Desmond is right about a few things though. Putting these loans into a NAMA quango wont make it more efficient. But what he doesnt reveal or perhaps comprehend (no, I would say that he does) is that a larger entity covering syndicated loans (as exemplified by the Carroll case) could in theory be more efficient and multipole bank loans to one loanee are rolled up from a many-to-one to a one-to-one. He is also right that at least 3 large banks operating here is whats needed to make things competitive on the lending side, but why stop at 3 when 5 would be better.

    All in all this NAMA lark is gonna cost me and you.

    MK1

  7. John ALLEN says:

    This room should refrain from ‘beneign

    masochism’ among ourselves Irish,

    even if we are to define that to embrace

    bankers and politicians .

    Rather instead , we should

    commemorate these moments with all

    our political representatives and hold

    them close to our own hearts and keep

    them away from any ‘houses’ that should

    cause infamy among us.

    Invite them to be among us and keep

    them there indefinately.

  8. henrybarth says:

    Anyone who reads this paper below — The Panic of 2007 — will see why there is still much trouble ahead. Just look at the chart on page 60.

    This report is from the US Federal Reserve:

    http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2008/gorton.08.04.08.pdf

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