Is the bank tail wagging the Irish economy dog? It is certainly beginning to feel like that. Not content to wreck the economy in the first place, the banks’ managements have now embarked on a “silent takeover” of economic policy.
The most egregious aspect in all this is that they are being allowed to run the show by the Government. This spectacle of bank bosses apparently writing the script is why hundreds of thousands of ordinary people see the proximity between the big developers, the Fianna Fail party and the banks as one and the same cabal.
It is not up to us to change our view, it is up to the Government to change it for us by showing that they are prepared to treat the banks like any other industry. Otherwise, what conclusion does the minister expect us to draw?
It is not that we don’t understand the magnitude of the challenges facing the economy. We know we are in deep and that, like it or not, we all have to shoulder some of the pain. We realise that our banks have enormous problems and that the power of the State, if it can be exercised, should be used to prevent a financial collapse.
In principle, we understand that the State must be involved, but, at best, we want the banks to be working for us. At the moment it is impossible not to draw the conclusion that we are working for them.
The most conspicuous example of this banking dominance is the creation of the National Asset Management Agency side by side with the blanket guarantee of all bank liabilities. This means that the banks have both a safety net and a parachute, while the rest of the economy is left without any means of protection. This disparity is the root of many people’s incomprehension and, ultimately, anger.
Think about the contrast between the treatment of the delinquent banks and bankers and the rest of us. If you are in the business of making things for sale on the international markets — the lifeblood of a trading economy — you are faced with every possible obstacle. You need to trade in an overvalued exchange rate, which is getting stronger. You most probably have had your working capital and overdraft cut back severely by the same banks that are now availing of the NAMA and the guarantee. Your tax rates have increased and the cost of labour has also gone up as income tax has risen.
You are facing deflation everywhere, yet the interest rates on your debts remain significantly higher than the interest rate being charged to the banks for the credit in the first place. You, who employ people, are being squeezed. The banks are being subsidised at every turn and you are being penalised at every juncture.
This is not an economic policy, but a silent takeover. The banks are now the biggest liability we have and keeping them alive at all costs — which was, on balance, the right thing to do a few months ago — is beginning to look like the least beneficial route. The guarantee, of which I was a big supporter, was supposed to be introduced to give the banks time to find a solution to their problems. You give them time, there will be no run on deposits and then they come up with solutions, you force their hand, you are the boss. Instead, our Government allowed themselves to be run around by the banks that benefited from the guarantee — without extracting any concessions.
The banks are still giving the State the two fingers. Having both the NAMA and the guarantee gives absolutely no incentive for the banks to get their house in order.
To rectify this dilemma at the heart of monetary policy and to make sure we don’t end up with a zombie banking system, now that the NAMA has been set up, the State has got to rescind the guarantee.
It should limit the guarantee to depositors. The debt holders will be okay so long as the banks don’t go bust, which they shouldn’t with the NAMA in place. The State has no business using our money to bail out or protect in any way the equity or subordinated debt holders.
Subordinated debt is a risky asset, which was bought by rich mates of the banks. These are rich men’s IOUs. Bank of Ireland alone issued €15bn of these IOUs. They should not be underwritten by taxpayers. This is a classic example of poor people subsidising millionaires. It is wrong.
If the guarantee is not rescinded as soon as the NAMA is set up the whole thing will be an oligarch’s bonanza because the taxpayer is on the hook for the €450bn in bank liabilities and the €90bn bad debts. This is paying for the banking system twice. Once you take out their bad debts, the banks should be able to go to the market and finance themselves. If they cannot, they should not be in business.
Yesterday, AIB — the bank that has constantly said it has no problems — admitted that it was in big trouble. Well, thanks lads for the confession, but we figured that out years ago. Have you examined your share price recently? It goes without saying that there has been absolutely no change at the top in AIB — the chairman and the chief executive are still there. This would not happen in any other country and because they are still in their jobs, foreign investors won’t touch us with a bargepole.
Can the minister not see that they are taking the mickey out of him and us? Maybe he can, but because the Government is too close to the developers and bankers, he is doing nothing.
The time to choose has come. The minister has to choose between the ordinary people and the powerful elite. If the guarantee is not rescinded when the NAMA is set up, we will know that he’s on the side of the elite.
In which case, he and his government deserve everything they get at the polls.
Exopolitics :
http://www.exopolitics.com/
Somehow , I find this the only credible positive outlook from the bottom of the barrell and that supports my theory that perhaps on Dun Aengus people did gather to wait to meet another third dimension where money has no currency and where no banks exist and all of what we fear may oly be a dream of something better to arrive and our Slave Trader BL might be one of them taking all of us to a worm hole to another world.
JohnA,
I thought we were on Mar’s,,,!!!!!
Moon Wobble & X&O’s
Today is peak day for the Wobble and already I am at Dun Aengus with The SLave Trader ( a humanoid BL ) and we are waiting to do the bird dance in a circle to call in all those before us to deliver us to a place where no borrower has gone before.The Circle is at present a semi circle as the greater half has disapeared to the seas thousand of years ago when this last happened.The objective is to call back the X in the equation by delivering the energies of the complete circle and upon the return of the X ,logic is restored once more and we live happy ever after.
To make the full circle I am holding the hand of the Slave Trader and Neidin’s tail while standing at the cliff edge and the sea gulls and puffins join in with us rebuilding the greater circle on the sea side thus making the complete circle to complete this important mission .It’s becoming serious now and something is about to happen .
The silence is deafening and everyone’s eyes are closed and we start to humm along The Bird Song Na Na Na Na Na …Na Na NaNa …..Na Na Na Na ..Na Na Na Na ….Na Na Na Na ……………..NaMa NaMa NaMa
There are plenty of intelligent posts on this site (along side some that baffle me I must confess). There is also plenty of outrage and discontent (as there should be). What get’s me is the implicit assumption that other than the comparatively infrequent oppotunities to vote the primary method of expressing dissatisfaction with the status quo (whatever you want….(sorry, tangent)) is by
1) Protest march which is well established and there fore protocols for addressing same are well established therefore they can be largely ignored.
2) Whinging in (semi) private.
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that I currently have no solid alternative suggestions (though I have advocated withdrawing our dosh from the banks we don’t like), but I recognise the need for a form of protest that departs from the established script sufficiently to rattle the cages of power. Be it of a reclaim the streets variety or some other method (This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is a vestige of the “vox populi” now vacant, vanished.)
Any thoughts?
Appologies for the poor punctuation etc. My coffee has not as yet settled into the bloodstream.
Yes. Clear logic and rational discourse backed up by facts which paints a more true picture of reality. A reality that better interprets our past and visualises a future that inspires hope and faith.
At the end of the day, it is the SHARED UNDERSTANDING that people have of reality that creates that reality.
Now, the shared understanding that the current elites have is disintegrating. It is being shown up as both sham and scam (particularly scam).
Less of the polemic and more of the facts and rationales in continuing discourse is how we create a new reality and make the old one obsolete.
I would see the mainstream media as the critical power broker, and any aspirations for change should aim to tackle this behemoth.
That’s fine, I completely buy that as an over-arching strategy. My question is what are the associated tactical movements. It is all well and good having 5 people in a room stating that we need to develop a shared vision of a better future, but translating that into a population sharing that vision is the hard bit. We are here. How do we get there?
No, I mean, just talk… On the one hand you have the talk of the elites. They back up what they’re saying with ‘studies’ and ‘reports’ (created by other systemic elites) and talk about ‘work ethics’ and ‘put nothing in writing’ and all the rest…
What I’m getting at is that there is a need for an alternative narrative. Or, alternative ‘talk’. It doesn’t have to be a vision of a better future necessarily. Just talk that people find more meaningful, inspiring, and that they are personally empowered by Both in forums like this, and in real life.
And I think once this is done, that the action will look after itself.
Again, a grand strategy, but 5 lads chatting somewhere semi-private (and to gain an audience of any size will require a larger forum than this site) will not get much done. Agreed, the model in the heads of the general populace must be adjusted though free exchange of ideas, but then it is necessary to engage the populace in order to achieve anything beyond bar talk.
It’s the IMPULSE rather than the strategy that matters. As Gandhi put it, if you want to change the world, first start with yourself. Trust me, it spreads of its own accord.
You distill the artificial intelligence propagated by the dennis
the menace’s into a fizzy pop and this drives them into
a fitful rage of evaporation, ie, wicked witch and bucket of h2o
in wizard of oz.
Let me add to that… I mean a logic driven by INTEGRITY. And selection of facts driven by INTEGRITY. Of course, anything can be proven by logic. It depends on what one takes for granted before the process of logic takes its course. Actually, it is these premises and prior assumptions that should be the subject of discussion if the aspiration is real change.
One of the things I find strange is how little our host dips in here. Not that I need anyone to hold my hand but the odd response to the more in depth comments from our “heavyweights” would be nice to see?
Perhaps it’s a good thing in terms of finding and expressing our own voices?
Lenihan’s article is a stroke of genius.
I have always been dismayed that in Ireland it is almost impossible to enter in to a debate, whether its in the pub after a few jars or in the houses of the Oireachtas, that focuses on the facts. Polemic and opinion abound. Lenihan would not be in the position he is today if he was not fully cognisant of this cultural fact. He has today written a great article that just might rescue him and his party from oblivion. He has grasped two important things: 1: the facts will not go away and 2: we have peaked on ‘crisis fatigue’. In one stroke he has dealt with both of these issues in this article.
@David, you have spoken at length in the past about providing hope for people, whether its the FTB’s who bought at the peak, or the developers with no way to offload their houses or rescue their businesses. Today Brian Lenihan offered people hope and he did it by marginalising both you and anybody who is sympathetic with the views you present. Note here that BL is attacking you personally precisely because you are in the public eye (while ignoring the 20-odd Irish academics who posited precisely the same critique of the proposed NAMA+recapitalisation policy in the IT last week). That’s without even getting in to the analysis by the IMF and various commentaries by some very serious people in some very serious international periodicals, but as they say all politics is local.
Lenihan has appealed to the despair of the masses unable to live with uncertainty or grasp the hard facts by offering them political discourse and has turned you in to a political actor in the process. I’m sure you are aware of this but its worth stating nonetheless.
Now, this needs to be borne in mind by anybody considering responses to the situation the country finds itself in. I am very tempted to say ‘its easy to be a critic’, but the fact remains that in order to avert disaster on a national scale we need people who are prepared to get balls-deep in to Irish national politics and I wouldn’t wish that on anybody.
@Thriftcriminal – your right, there is indeed a danger of forums such as this becoming an echo-chamber of our collective opinions and prejudices, something I have mentioned in the past. The best way to understand a complex problem is to try to explain it to somebody else, and the answers have been expounded here and elsewhere before:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/02/22/my-plan-to-save-the-country
is as good a description as any. So perhaps the best we ordinary folk can do as individuals is to stop posting here and talk more with people who are struggling to come to terms with it all. Five blokes down the pub might seem small but hey, that’s how Hitler got started…(well maybe that’s a VERY bad analogy but you get the idea?) Perhaps also people can be lobbying their local TD’s (it does not matter which party: the system is so broken, is hard to tell the difference between any of them… but they are all concerned with power)
Lenihan’s policy since last August has been “reassure everybody that everything is fine”.
Nobody cares about reassurances. The people are increasingly wanting to find out the real story. Bad news for Seanie Fitz and his ilk, because his funny dealings will become public knowledge. (And there is worse than Seanie Fitz – sNeary has an awful lot of questions to ask and is probably the most dangerous man in Ireland-having fell asleep at the well and allowing the country to drive itself into a ditch.
I am not reassured by Minister Lenihan. I would much prefer if he concentrated on cleaning up the quangos. I would much prefer if he summoned Eugene Sheehy and the top directors into Government buildings and got serious answers to serious questions about AIB (which was supposed to be less stupid than the others). I would much prefer if he prepared a plan for the liquidation of Irish Nationwide Building Society – in advance of it’s empending bankruptcy and takeover by the state. I would much prefer if he found a buyer for Anglo. But to be going around trying to silence an Economist who has been persistently right is not the Minister’s job.
Minister Lenihan – we the taxpayers are paying you to do a job. Get on with it !!!!
He has become minister of dep. bouncer overnight….
Triftcriminal – try to be a real George Cloony and use…N’Espresso Coffee ……it will make you understand all the world – a new experience .
Methinks a spot of caffine might not go amis on your fniegrs :-)
From Bllomberg this morning;
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=agYJBUJ9f5x8&refer=europe
In particular, “Banks have used asset-backed bonds — notes secured by mortgages and credit card bills — more than any other type of debt to obtain 676 billion euros ($883 billion) of loans from the ECB, according to central bank data. Bank officials are planning to tighten rules as Standard & Poor’s says credit- rating downgrades are “rising sharply” amid Europe’s deepest economic slump in 13 years.”
This sounds like the banks have swung 180 degrees from sub-prime loans to sub-prime securities and the ECB has just copped that the underlying information to used substantiate those “top-up” liquidity loans is volatile.
I’ve dropped this in because it may have a material effect on our big two. Have they availed of Euro bailout money on the back of information that is now turning out to be “spongy”?
If so, notwithstanding the domestic private loan book going sour, is the Irish taxpayer at risk of paying back monies borrowed from the ECB during the mayhem of the past 6 months?
Yes we are. If/when we have to nationalise other banks as they simply can’t raise funds to continue trading, the taxpayer may find themselves in the awful situation of underwriting NAMA and the difference between the market value of NAMA’s assets and the prices we’ve paid for them. In other words, we could have COMPLETE exposure to NAMA losses. Make no mistake about it, this scenario is as bad as the country going bankrupt and having to call in the IMF. B Lenihan doesn’t seem to understand that the decision to nationalise another bank won’t be his. It could be forced upon the government as a result of both the guarantee and very negative sentiment in international markets. I’d feel sorry for him if he wasn’t being pig-headed and arrogant.
Thank you Shane.
As Rumsfeld said….There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.
The guarantee should expire in September 2010. This will become an issue for the bankers once NAMA is set up, and they have bedded NAMA in and made sure the state will take the rap.
I think some unknown unknowns will be made known by the bankers in order to bounce us into keeping the guarantee…
After all, if youre a banker, having a fall guy there to pay out for you is just too good to let go. That wont go without a fight.
David is obviously spot on again – first Bertie and now Lenihan considers him to be persona non grata.
It would appear that simple mathematics is beyond the capability of this government – I wonder can any of them use a four function calculator? Cowen obviously can’t, as was evident during his tenure as minister for finance.
Presentation and pretence is all these guys are about – Martin’s 145 reports on the health service for the sake of reports, costing 20 million plus. It’s like the old soviet system, the managers pretend to manage and the workers pretend to work.
It time for emergency drill, check your lifejackets and note the position of the nearest lifeboat – we’re going down sometime soon.
“It’s like the old soviet system, the managers pretend to manage and the workers pretend to work.”
I watched the Prime Time documentary last night. And that effectively was what I seen. Most of the state quangos would not make any public comment as regards their function. It was hilarious really. Every quango needs an office/headquarters plus a brass plate. They all have PR staff to manage the public’s perception of their necessity. They all have one or two ministers to advise/serve. (The same minister would be responsible for their senior level staffing, of course). None of them do any serious work. Their staffing level has absolutely nothing to do with their activity level, and everything to do with their access to government funds. When one of their responsibilities is moved out of the quango – the staff who used to do that task, hang around for years doing nothing.
We need to open this up – let it become a public debate until the political system is in complete embarrasment and has to shut them down. They are all rotten with nepotism in any case. It is completely absurd.
Original-Ed: “It time for emergency drill, check your lifejackets and note the position of the nearest lifeboat –
we’re going down sometime soon.”
You almost have the exact chorous of Norah Jones’ classic hit “Sinkin’ soon” that was a big hit a couple of years ago. It should be adopted as our National Anthem pending the appearance of some green shoots.
The present situation has the exact ingredients that the Soldiers’ Song rallied the nation to dispose of for ever—
No more our ancient sire land
Shall shelter the despot or the slave.
Tonight we man the gap of danger
In Erin’s cause, come woe or weal etc etc.
We are no longer worthy of those stirring sentiments as the nation collaborated with the despots and sold itself into slavery.
[...] http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/04/22/banks-giving-us-two-fingers-dont-deserve-state-bailout [...]
Hi David,
I agree wholeheartedly with your article. In fact, I have been saying as much for many months now, and I’m glad you are in agreement.
> The banks are being subsidised at every turn and you are being penalised at every juncture.
agreed.
> The banks are now the biggest liability we have and keeping them alive at all costs — which was, on balance, the right thing to do a few months ago — is beginning to look like the least beneficial route.
You have by now heard my mantra: “Lance the Boil”. I’ve been saying it repeatedly since September. With the incorrect government actions, it will cost this state and the taxpayer dearly, which indirectly will actually cost people shortened lives and worse living conditions and education, etc, whether the “sheople” realise it or not. Cause and consequence is not understandable by everyone.
> The guarantee, of which I was a big supporter, was supposed to ….
But David, you actually believed that they were going to do this correctly. Irish poltics (of recent decades anyway) has always protected the vested interests, everywhere. There was no “collective ephiphany” among our political governors, there was no “changing of the spots”. I was dubious about it from the start and was right.
> The banks are still giving the State the two fingers.
The State is giving the People the Two Fingers. We have our vote every five years – like it or lump it. The Government/State know that we are an apathetic lot. We may complain, begrudge, but we are not in revolutionary mode, and they know it. PR and perception is king.
> The State has no business using our money to bail out or protect in any way the equity or subordinated debt holders. These are rich men’s IOUs. Bank of Ireland alone issued €15bn of these IOUs. They should not be underwritten by taxpayers. This is a classic example of poor people subsidising millionaires. It is wrong.
I fully agree. We should allow the failing banks to go bust, set-up a new Good Bank, get bank assets at fire-sale prices, etc. In other words do what any other private equity group would do when crawling over the bones of failed and sick banks. Doing anything else is saving them!
> the banks should be able to go to the market and finance themselves. If they cannot, they should not be in business.
Re-read that sub-sentence above Dave. You have stated the answer!
> It goes without saying that there has been absolutely no change at the top in AIB — the chairman and the chief executive are still there.
Root and branch reform is needed at the banks, its not the CEO or the Chairman who are the only actors. Its cultural. There are 1000′s of workers at each bank who have the same cultural “illness”. The repair could be done via nationalising and a massive change programme. Another and far more easier route is to allow the sick banks to fail and set-up a new bank from the ashes of the failed banks. Start with a clean slate. I know that’s what a two year old would do if he was building a sandcastle. The same simple logic applies to our banks. Yes, it IS that easy.
> Can the minister not see that they are taking the mickey out of him and us? Maybe he can, but because the Government is too close to the developers and bankers, he is doing nothing.
correct. The Government is too close to the system. The Government is part of the system. It was the Government that brought in the light regulation in the first place which exasperated our bubble as credit washed across the world.
> The time to choose has come. The minister has to choose between the ordinary people and the powerful elite.
He has already made his choice, as have FF. Indeed, opposition is not very good either. Maybe we need a new set of politicians in. Dont vote for current TD’s, or anyone that’s there more than 1 term. Root and branch reform of our political system is also needed.
> In which case, he and his government deserve everything they get at the polls.
In previous era’s the saying was that a firing squad wouldnt be good enough for them. Who says taking the gun out of politics was a good thing??? ;-)
MK1
ps: didnt have time to read other comments on here. Read some on the previous item and many were very good.
A1 Mk1
The answer to all the roguery is to be found in Article 45 (with thanks to Furrylugs for mentioning it).
Implement Article 45. That is the answer. Article 45 of Bunreacht na hEireann is the benchmark for all the governments manoevres in respect to the banks. Article 45 makes all the bailouts unconstitutional.
NAMA – Never is Article 45 Mentioned Anywhere !!
Or at least rewrite it to make it an executive power of the President. A “Law of Last Resort” so to speak. That way the Presidential advisors have some teeth and we get some form of ultimate safety net.
A B S O L U T E L Y>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We needn’t worry about this David. Within 6-12 months Ireland will effectively be bankrupt as a 25% unemployment rate and dying industry will leave the government with nothing left to tax in order to fund the guarantees and NAMA. The IMF will have no choice but to come in as Ireland’s debts to other nations and the World Bank pile up unabated. This government’s days of management are numbered either way. This is unless, of course, politically the current government collapses before then, which I think is unlikely unless a significant backbench revolt takes place and sufficient politicians walk out of government, thus forcing an election.
The problem here is that there isn’t really anybody who is both experienced enough to manage such a zombie bank who is actually sufficiently removed from the existing property oligarchy enough to ensure that the interests of the people and not the developers and banks are considered first. The reality for me is that people who have already paid 2 to 3 times what their homes are worth – whether it is in a mortgage or via the eye watering rents where currently it is still more expensive to rent a 1 bedroomed apartment in a run down part of Cork city than West Hollywood, Los Angeles – cannot afford to pay several times for the mistakes of others – firstly through their own expenses, secondly for the bank bailout and then again for NAMA???
I don’t think the NAMA solution is viable. Unless its run by somebody in Polynesia sufficiently removed from the Irish property industry to reasonably manage it.
Right now the problem I see is we are so uncompetitive by any standards that we must reduce costs and pricing levels to restimulate the economy. That needs state support. Since last year I have lost the equivalent of a weeks rent per month in extra taxes to the state. That extra weeks rent has to come out of somewhere. I am still paying high prices for electricity, rent, car servicing, food, and other essential services.
And yet – we are still paying social welfare recipients 3 times the basic rate of what they get in the UK. I live on a street with 5 houses divided up into flats – 3 of the 5 are entirely housing state-subsisided welfare beneficiaries – which you and I are paying for. There are a constant in and out stream as evictions are constant in these 3 houses, so you have to question what these peoples real intentions are. Considerable numbers of people in Ireland may still actually be better off on welfare than working – creating a gigantic poverty trap. Believe me, the conditions of these properties is like something out of Slumdog Millionaire, not the most “successful” economy in Europe.
I think that you should leave off on welfare recipients. Just follow the money… follow where the benefit of each hour of your labour goes… Who gets the benefit of the goods or service you help to make. Where does your hard earned go? (eg. bank fees, insurance, mortgages for over-valued assets etc.). Who gets the benefit of the profits you help to create? And what do they spend it on? … I think you’ll find that most of your effort goes towards lining the pockets of just a small number of elites… and they spend it on trophy goods, luxurious lifestyles and further speculation. Far more of your taxes are going towards filling in the holes where the elites and favoured have been feeding themselves during the last decade. The small fraction that goes towards supporting the hundreds of thousands who are in the unfortunate position of depending on welfare is spent on the bare necessities most of the time. Sure, sometimes, a few pints to make things seem better. Personally, I don’t begrudge that. Focus your ire on the real scammers and shammers.
I’d echo that roc. Leaving the permanently Hopeless and Useless to one side, and to be mindful of the selfless work of , for example,Carers (try it some time- humbling experience), look at the tens of thousands of proud workers now on the scrapheap through no fault of their own. It’s important to remember all these people are workers and want to work. They are an asset to the country if the country could find a way to utilise that asset.
Throwing them onto welfare because of mismanagement is allowing the people as a whole to suffer because money was polarised to one section of the populace.
It’s not only taxpayers that should have a vocal franchise. Our newly unemployed are prisioners of this economic war and should be dignified as such by those lucky enough to retain their jobs.
While they still can.
oh yes there is talent ‘f12,. jumping the gun there a bit maybe..///
I find it interesting that Tesco will now be dealing directly with distributers in the UK and bypassing the local brokers in an effort to bring down prices. Middle men will start to come under pressure here and no doubt will start to squeal “lost jobs” in no time. But Tesco have said that it does not impact local producers (who they’ll buy direct from). Tesco has to make a profit. Others will follow. The day of the local middle man is numbered. That’ll put paid to one aspect of our economic rent.
That is a PR stunt – Tesco have extremely fat margins in Ireland – but they do not want people looking into them. Therefore they produce this story about going direct to UK distributors. This is a guilt-trip. Basically accept Tesco’s ridiculously high pricing, or else jobs will go.
It doesn’t affect me because I never go there.
Agree of the Tesco bit. Just hoping others will/can follow example or force it more.
Where do you go then Deco? Where do you recommend others go/shop etc.? You could be specific. Taking care of little details like that could make all the difference and be part of the effort to reform and renew the country. I’m not in Ireland but if I was I would shop ‘local’ notwithstanding the fact that I’m not a ‘nationalist’ in the idiotic sense of the word.
What’s the difference between a Tesco buyer and a terrorist?
You can negotiate with the terrorist
Good comment Philip. Middlemen, unless they provide a valuable and competitive service, will be squeezed in the drive to cut costs.
The uncompetitive and overpriced middlemen across our economy got away with murder for years ; they deserve everything they get now.
Hopefully I will be able to go into one of our native retailers soon, and come out happy, without a major hole in my pocket due to overpricing, saying “The difference is they’re Irish”.
I doubt it though.
Paddy.
Furry, that Bloomberg article is really stating a Check Mate. Anything that is secured against Mortgages, Credit etc. is turning to mush. The only security having any value are commodities like metals, minerals, oil and food based and I would bet that this is small as a proportion of all the security backed loans. This means that credit and bad debts are for the most part gone bad. If you cannot issue credit, businesses/ individuals cannot borrow and the whole banking system. This is where Malcolm’s suggestion on hoarding 1Bn euro’s worth of rare metal is not a bad idea at all – while we still can. Remember this is a global problem. Mind you, as Wills points out Malcolm, maybe the “Elite” have beaten us to the punch on this one.
Roc’s view of getting a new narrative moving out there is very pertinent. People need to be able to voice/ articulate something they can identify with and will allow them to hold a lens to the tomfoolery going on at the moment.
JohnAllen is getting frustrated. He is merely articulating our descent into fiddling while Rome burns. We are reasoning around the edges as Will Blake would say. Hurlers on the Ditch etc. A lot of you are saying this more directly.
A45 TeeShirts, Protest Marches etc…but I feel we need a Christy Moore/ Bono type promo behind this. These have the heart of the people in a way no one else does and they too are loosing their fortunes.
Arriving at a clearer view of reality by reasoned dialogue – I think roc articulated that very well and I’d be in agreement.
Reminds me a bit of the start of Don’t Sleep There Are Snakes, Daniel Everett’s account of a linguist-cum-missionary living among the remote Paraha Indians in the Amazon, whose “non-recursive” language does not, cannot, refer to abstract ideas or allow the possibility of comprehending anything beyond what the individual, or somebody else known personally to the individual, has directly experienced (which makes Christian missionary work problematic – Everett solved that by becoming an agnostic – and they probably would not be too interested in reading Henry James) and whose existence is rooted firmly in the present moment. He is awoken one day by the excited shouts of a group of Paraha gathered by the river and pointing at the opposite bank. They can all see the Spirit there, Everett can’t. Who’s right? (Er, well, Everett obviously.)
Ruairi mentioned “paradigm shifts” at some stage – not a phrase I’d have used myself at one time – but it’s the same idea. And Deco refers to the need for clarity. Kinda felt like the veneer was melting a little last night on RTE with the state agencies under the spotlight. But that could ice over again in a twinkle of the eye – and it wouldn’t be hard to break up or exterminate a few hundred Paraha Indians either!
By the way, on the basis of looking for simple rather than complicated explanations, I was just wondering if govt. resistance to a more creative solution to the bank crisis can partly be explained by the reluctance or fear of the Dept. of Finance to have to roll up their sleeves and tackle such a complicated mess, that they’d rather throw any amount of money at it than have to sort it all out themselves(??)
Agree with the last paragraph
Aidan has a comment about civil servants and their attitude to making money, dream up a tax and enforce it….Its a bit harshly worded but its essentially correct. it sums up the working assumptions or belief system of anyone who spent their career in the public service or indeed in a large monopoly. If a bill comes in, add a percentage and pass it on.
For all the pseudo business talk about customers, targets etc, the bottom line is that nobody is a “customer” of the revenue or the prison service.. The word customer indicates choice, but I cannot chose to not avail of the revenue ‘services’.
Whats the point? First having real customers who can exercise their right to not buy focusses the mind. Inevitably situations arise where they dont; the shit hits the fan and the organization adapts or dies.
State organizations are fine for keeping the streets clean, keeping schools running etc… They work well in stable situations where budgets need to be tweaked, but the overall emphasis is on keeping services running rather than radical change. They are better at doing this than someone looking for a quick buck, their inefficencies are a lesser evil than a private monopoly….But there is no threat of extinction for these organizations
The problem is theres a few too many zeros on the amounts involved in this situation, for it to be stable or normal… The entire worldview/culture/belief system of the state organizations tackling this problem is just not able to comprehend the tactics needed to contain the problem let alone fix it.
There is a threat of extinction with current events, but those setting policy have never seen this before and dont recognise it. Because its never actually happened to any of them. They have never seen the pattern in an ailing company where more and more events conspire against its survival.
Im not suggesting a private organization is needed; just that something has to happen before the state organizations collectively recognise the danger.
Letting go 50% of the staff in 2010 when the govt cant write any more checks should do the trick though it’ll be a bit late then
“… allow them to hold a lens to the tomfoolery going on at the moment.”
Precisely. And I might add that it is different perspectives that help one to see more clearly through this lens.
Take John Allen’s perspective for example… He is concerned with an aspect of reality and culture that has been relegated by the boom mentality of the last fifty years.
Lurking, I have seen how his poetic allusions to this reality were at first alien and incomprehensible to most. But as time has gone on, his reality is now not so alien and incomprehensible to those who have read his posts. His perspective has a lot of potential to shine some additional light on what is seen through the lens.
The point is perspective. In the same way that looking (empathising) through the eyes of children and different cultures, changes what one sees through that lens, it is important not to exclude different perspectives. This is the trick that is being played on us. Reasons given include ideas about scientific ‘validity’, western ‘professionalism’, exclusion of subjectivities from public discourse etc…
It’s quite easy to poke holes in all of those perspectives above. I think it’s important to keep an open mind, of course, while working on better awareness of one’s own prejudices, habits of thought etc…
Yes, John Allen’s posts are excellent. I was sceptical at first and it took a while for me to get used to them but now I see the real value in them.
Philip,,.
a1 post,.. can i suggest, the elite have made a mockery of some
like the section who bought into the mortgage racket and are now
sitting ducks for the interest rates, but philip, there are many people
out there who were onto the gameplay and out witted it and will
turn the tide and see in vicccctooorrryyy.
@David,,,
Ref; minister of finance, Letters page (response to DMcW article above), Independent newspaper 23 april.
Quote from letter, “…the banks won’t face up to the reality of their bad loans” sooo, we the Gov are,…
by calling in NAMA (repo man) and sorting it all out. So this proves we the gov
are in control and not the banks so D McW is wrong wrong wrong in his very bad horrible horrible bold bold article and all those
mean things that he said and who the blazes does this fella from dublin think he is and i’ll tell my ma when i go home and if he is not careful we know a few lads who
don’t like red haired upstarts from blackrock.. etc etc etc,…
Now, can i suggest to Mr. Lenihan the fo;;owing,…
…..has it not occurred to him that maybe, just maybe, the banks are
playing an old toddler trick called ‘blind monkey’,
and the idea of the trick is, if you make a mess, you play pretend
it isn’t there and so someone else will have to come along
and do the dirty work and clean it up and look like
they made the mess and not you and you get of scott free
and go about your toddler business,….
which i believe is what D McW article was saying in the first place.
which is the banks are in behind the back playing the gov like
a fiddle, by, ‘playing blind monkey’ and getting someone else to
fix the mess the banks made,.. which has worked it seems
judging by Mr. Lenihans NAMA repo man cleaning up the banks
mess.
anybody agree with my take on this bizarre letter…
Philip – Yes, I am frustrated you are right .But it is not for myself I feel that way but for most people I know who have lost everything .I am daily on the financial war footing( independent accountant ) fighting to save service / manufacturing businesses against predators either they be Revenue , Banks etc and assisting the enormous depression these people are suffering and family break ups as a result .I had two attemped sucide cases already this year and when you get that flash phone call saying ‘ you wont see me anymore I am fucked and goodbye’ it does knock you back in your seat and its hard to think properly for the rest of the week after that .These are fantastic business people and a conspiracy at the top in banking let them all down .Some are young single men minding their ailing parents .There are a lot of very sad cases around us so I am frustrated not to provoke rather to ‘crack the nut’ as it were and bring in a self realisation of reality on the ground.I don’t need to say more what everyone else has said because once is enough .Just look around you and around your neighbourhood and find who have jobs now .
This week all the Sheriff Demand Notes have arrived and more to follow and the faces on the recipients is frightening .Revenue have transferred a lot more of files to the sheriff than they did in previous years so it’s staggering.Ordinary people in good jobs that borrowed enormous amounts for business/developments etc have a ‘mush asset’ and a big bank loan not working for them so the stress is taking a toll on their full time job.
I am lucky so far but who knows.Do you ?
Can i add johnA,.
the serious cause of anxiety in the future interest rates will
hold over large sections of the community,..
John – interesting perspective. It must make some people sick when they are employing people and making real products, and the Sheriff is sent around to gather up everything possible – so that Burrows, Sheehy and Bowler can continue the good life. It is no wonder that we are seeing a serious crisis.
If there was one piece of advice that you could give the parties not in government concerning policy in this regard, please state it. That way the opposition parties will talk about it, and then the government will respond by saying it was their policy all along. A moratorium on ESB bills, less rates, the minimum wage, whatever. But maybe it might start a debate that might change something.
I for my part – will do all I can to buy Irish manufactured/grown/produced/serviced/headquartered.
Very well put…
“It must make some people sick when they are employing people and making real products, and the Sheriff is sent around to gather up everything possible – so that Burrows, Sheehy and Bowler can continue the good life.”
We need this on big print in the papers.
Mind you, the Revenue Commissioners must be getting nervous too.
John – it is sad that you have to deal with people who are suicidal. Next time you have somebody who is feeling that way tell them “it is not your fault – you are not responsible for all the lies coming from the establishment – there are thousands of people who are seeing the deciet and the lies – and these people want to burn the corruption out of the system – tell them that there will be reckoning for Ireland’s corrupt elements – that the undercurrent is changing in Irish society – that the maFFia are running out of options – and ask them to join in the movement of people to a new level of debate – which will result in the cleaning up of the corruption in Ireland”.
Tell them that ‘life is beautiful’ and justice will be sweet when it comes. But that they are needed to bring that day sooner. Every angry voter will help throw scoundrels like Ahern and his pals on the scrapheap.
wills – I am glad you enjoy the comic relief side .We all need a lift to more forward.
Talking of comic relief am I the only one to find the Huffnpuffpolly – Malcolm exchange (with postscript by Furrylugs) seriously funny?
Sorry Leinster Folk.
Couldn’t resist. I’ve no doubt ye’ll play a brilliant support role to the Munster & Irish Lions.
comedy eases moon wobble John
What we are seeing is one giant game of chicken and so far it looks like the Bankers have it won. Now it’s left to us to clear up an almighty mess (pay for) as the boyos drive there so far unstoppable juggernaut into the sunset, Our next game is with the ECB any guesses who’s gona win that one.
I have just been told that Alan Dukes has expressed severe reservations about the whole NAMA program. I will try to find a link.
I think Alan Dukes article is in IFJ.ie but wont be on website till monday.
I think we may all be a bit too critical of Mr Lenihan like if you consider he is just a politician and he’s advised by civil servants.
This all seems innocent enough until you consider a civil servants attitude to making money. Think up a new tax then collect tax if punter refuses to pay then its court, jail, revenue sheriff ect. But payment in full will be collected, unless new tax is met with mass protests then its back to think up a new tax.
Now consider someone in the real world who wants to make a few euro first you think up a new idea for a product or service then you research the new idea is there a market then you raise finance for new idea ( if possible ) , then bring new product or service to market ( after many month maybe years of hard work ) then your all ready to go to market ( possibly after having to raise even more money along the way ) now this new idea may be successful if so Hurray you’re a fat cat who exploits the ordinary worker and don’t dare forget to be late paying any tax, vat, rates or levy, Or your product may be unsuccessful in which case its back to think up a new idea, after you have met all your financial obligations like giving your home to the bank you borrowed the money from to finance idea in first place.
So people lets not be too hard on poor Mr Lenihan he hasn’t things so easy imagine having to listen to a brainless shower of ejits day in day our and then taking the blame when people don’t like said hair brained ideas
Life’s tough at the top
If this is what he’s dealing with, I’d agree with you Aidan..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIto5mwDLxo&feature=SeriesPlayList&p=4007E473402A0A45&index=9
Lenihan’s article is a stroke of genius.
I have always been dismayed that in Ireland it is almost impossible to enter in to a debate, whether its in the pub after a few jars or in the houses of the Oireachtas, that focuses on the facts. Polemic and opinion abound. Lenihan would not be in the position he is today if he was not fully cognisant of this cultural fact. He has today written a great article that just might rescue him and his party from oblivion. He has grasped two important things: 1: the facts will not go away and 2: we have peaked on ‘crisis fatigue’. In one stroke he has dealt with both of these issues in this article.
@David, you have spoken at length in the past about providing hope for people, whether its the FTB’s who bought at the peak, or the developers with no way to offload their houses or rescue their businesses. Today Brian Lenihan offered people hope and he did it by marginalising both you and anybody who is sympathetic with the views you present. Note here that BL is attacking you personally precisely because you are in the public eye (while ignoring the 20-odd Irish academics who posited precisely the same critique of the proposed NAMA+recapitalisation policy in the IT last week). That’s without even getting in to the analysis by the IMF and various commentaries by some very serious people in some very serious international periodicals, but as they say all politics is local.
Lenihan has appealed to the despair of the masses unable to live with uncertainty or grasp the hard facts by offering them political discourse and has turned you in to a political actor in the process. I’m sure you are aware of this but its worth stating nonetheless.
Now, this needs to be borne in mind by anybody considering responses to the situation the country finds itself in. I am very tempted to say ‘its easy to be a critic’, but the fact remains that in order to avert disaster on a national scale we need people who are prepared to get balls-deep in to Irish national politics and I wouldn’t wish that on anybody.
@Thriftcriminal – your right, there is indeed a danger of forums such as this becoming an echo-chamber of our collective opinions and prejudices, something I have mentioned in the past. The best way to understand a complex problem is to try to explain it to somebody else, and the answers have been expounded here and elsewhere before:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/02/22/my-plan-to-save-the-country
is as good a description as any. So perhaps the best we ordinary folk can do as individuals is to stop posting here and talk more with people who are struggling to come to terms with it all. Five blokes down the pub might seem small but hey, that’s how Hitler got started…(well maybe that’s a VERY bad analogy but you get the idea?) Perhaps also people can be lobbying their local TD’s (it does not matter which party: the system is so broken, is hard to tell the difference between any of them… but they are all concerned with power)
“Lenihan’s article is a stroke of genius.”
No. Lenihan’s article is pure political machination. It has no integrity. Possibly a deluded integrity, but that’s his problem. David on the other hand, saw a truth that needed to be pointed out to save us from making the wrong decisions that will affect our future. It certainly was not written towards political expediency as Lenihan’s was. And if there was any doubt as to the truth in the article, you just have to read the article written by the IMF chief (link provided in first comment) which says the exact same thing and clearly shows the mechanics of how our situation developed. Lenihan’s article is basically a ‘covering up’ job.
Lenihan is threatening David in an underhanded fashion,
…is this the action of a genius or a potentate….!!!!!
we shall find out soon i’m sure and see if David is muffled…
Lenihans letter I find rather sinister and empty headed like a nightclub bouncer warding of the whistleblower at the door.
Right on. Wills get my point.
Roc;
I admire your understatement,.. brilliantly stated.
Yes.
http://www.eoni.com/~visionquest/library/lostart.html
See Excuse #5 (and thanks to whomever posted this first many articles earlier). Now, who is responsible for FF’s PR? Because he didn’t just dream this stuff up while sitting on the shitter after his morning coffee. Its a calculated attack.
You robbed my link, Liam, you horse thief.
One is flattered.
The attack on our host was a pretty unintellectual character assassination attempt at someone who doesn’t fit the populist mould. David McWilliams is not prone to dragging his knuckles along the ground and I suspect his dorsal hair isn’t silver either.
The attempt to ridicule or besmirch him was aimed at the Neo-Anderthal tribes recently decended from the branches of Tigerland. Expect DMcW to be blamed for the fall of the Tiger because he didn’t “Go with the flow” and talk up Ireland.
He wasn’t “Patriotic” nor had he the common decency to “commit suicide”.
He just kept blathering on and on and on until the world believed him and he single-handedly caused all those American banks to fail which pissed of the yanks, brought down that nice George Bush and all our money went far far away.
It’s quite obvious that David McWilliams globe trotting has led to swine flu epidemics and the spread of global warming.
Quite obviously, the man is a menace to society to the extent that his name even sounds British. What this country does not need is a closet protestant nor someone who obviously uses botox.
We should rally round at election time to prevent these Ganleyite miscreants destroying the very fabric of our beloved GAA.
And Brutus was an honourable man.
Liam,
if it is ok with your good self I for one will remain posting here for as
long as it takes to blogg into oblivion the bullys that control Ponzi Rep.
fill your boots:)
will get ‘em on first..!
“So perhaps the best we ordinary folk can do as individuals is to stop posting here and talk more with people who are struggling to come to terms with it all.”
I use this site as a kind of “Delphic Oracle” to bring the thought processes out in the wild, so to speak. I’m having a little success too because, not being allied to any particular party machine, people are starting to ask me my opinion. Mrs Furry commented that the debate here is not easy to follow for the non-political amongst us but she uses the site for the same reasons. It can be amusing in a nice way to hear Decos cry for intellectuallity paraphrased into colloquial language. But it’s working.
I’ve already heard Leinster House described as a “spaceship” down the local (Sorry John).
Yet again, all it takes for ……..etc etc.
Just keep spreading the word from here. It’s all we can do for the moment short of marching, starting a new movement or ,God forbid, joining one of the existing clubs. We’ll be heard soon enough.
Liam – Did the Bird Song work in Moon Wobble X&O’s ? I saw nothing yet .Where can I see it ?
Now that’s a bigger challenge than sorting out the banks… all I can offer John, is a couple of snowths. I don’t believe they are native to Dun Aengus.
John, you spoke very well from the heart in your earlier comment about how many of your clients – ordinary people with businesses who probably paid every bill on time and honoured every contract – who are facing ruin. You have well articulated the nature of the ruin in terms of impact to the person, family and community. These people obeyed the law and and now faced with the Sheriff.
Do I know if you’ll remain lucky. Well, as Andy Grove former CEO of Intel said…Only the Paranoid Survive. Brian Lenihan et al have no paranoia about the nature of the insult being injected into Irish Society. They still regard DMcW as more dangerous than say a few Sheriffs (ordinary people trying to do their jobs) winding up in a sticky situation – which is what I am afraid could happen. And before you know it, we have an unstable political situation within a month or 2.
When the law is so easily broken by most of the people, then we need to review it. It’s in the constitution. You cannot criminalise the whole of society becasue of badly designed policy measures.
Australia isn’t going to be weakened or perceived to be weakened by this global mess.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25383010-601,00.html
Maybe we should a spaceship procurement task force. Couldn’t be more of a stupid idea than decentralisation?
johnA,
If you encounter suicidal tendencies again through work or otherwise, these people are very good. You could perhaps suggest to your clients that they get in touch?
http://www.pieta.ie/?page_id=2
Where’s Tim gone?
Have a read of this all you free thinking Fianna Fail Folk just to see what happens if you ally yourselves with DMcW.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/dumped-junior-minister-were–lacking-leaders-in-government-1718538.html
Furry’,
I just hope Tim wasn’t too put out by Malcolm’s rather severe ribbing
of Tim about his time spent from other things,,..!!!! I really do think
maybe Malcolm might extend a kindly word or two too tim on the matter,…?!
Wills: We are approaching the ‘Leaving’ and I expect that Tim is much too busy helping his pupils get good results to spent as much time as previously on this blog. I should think normal service from Tim will be resumed as we approach the election and referendum during his long summer holidays.
malcolm,
could do a little bit better..?? maybe, swallow a little bit of that Irish
pride we all have,…
I’d appreciate it if a ‘reaching out’ took place malcolm,..
anyhow’s, i’m been called to do the dishes here,.. later
Wills: you make it sound like a crisis because Tim hasn’t contributed since 1:08 am this morning. I don’t feel either guilty or infused with pride about that. If Tim has taken umbrage at something I wrote then I am sorry. Let’s have no more distractions.
Perhaps the reason why Tim is not here is that he is out canvassing for FF!
so,.!! that’s his business,. christ what is this,..!! gro fu2kin up
@ wills You Should ‘Grow Up’ Tim has so many double standards here is more a form of secret escapism for him like the GAY in the closet after all he is within the teaching numbers and chairman of his local FF brigade who have whether you can or refuse to see it , raped this country of so many recourses over the last 70 odd years and looked after their own . I have suggested here that contributors to here who are presently living in Ireland to meet up instead of ‘living’ in this blog space.
Malcom writes good articles which can be read by an web surfer , your Mr T treats this space like his students treat bebo , and face book.
Maybe you should go out and get some fresh air too, while your conspiracy theory is no way original , your frequent posts on the same articles written by the Mc Williams here is at times rather annoying
Now kids come on and stop that.
[Light switching on and off]
Kiss and make up and say your sorry.
Only in Ireland would offending a person come above the worries of bankrupcy, the biggest financial panic the country has ever had.
Ireland is so screwed, we really dont have a hope in hell and why even bother trying.
What happens if John McGuinness becomes more popular than Cowen, or Coughlan ? You know it is quite possible. It is possible that McGuinness will strain the back benches in FF in a way that will upset the junta in charge. An interesting thought. McGuinness can join Joe Behan on the exiles bench. To cause even more hassle for the FF front bench.
In six weeks time we will have the local elections, the two Dublin by-elections, and the MEP elections. And FF look like getting a hammering in all three. McGuinness will then make a statement to the media. And we could have the entire FF party in division.
McGuinness getting annoyed is what is needed. McGuinness can see clearly that there are a collection of buffoons on the front bench of FF, and that they have to be replaced soon if this country is going to get it’s act together.
The cracks are appearing in the gov plaster job,,,,
NAMA is too much for them to deny and sleep at night,
the jig is up,… it’s only a matter of time now, it just takes
one to start yelling the “biffo has no pants”/ emperor
has no clothes and the NAMA confidence trick collapses.
Irish Times to day,… business section guess what…..
NTMA will contract out for expertise to run NAMA from the
banking sector,.. i sh!t you not,…
I’ve heard Tim is in a re-education camp in a ghost estate outside Tullamore, strapped in front of TV’s showing heroic images of Biffo, Lenny and Mary saving the nation and routing the blueshirts.
40 days of chanting and fasting before the election.
Maybe Biffo never understood that old saying…keep your friends close…but keep your enemies closer.
John McGuinness “said he had brought in outside experts, such as economist and Irish Independent columnist David McWilliams, to the department to introduce fresh thinking.”
As you say, Furrylugs, beware allying yourselves with DMcW! This reshuffling (together with Lenihan’s letter) underlines how much these tinpot leaders fear the truth.
I’d just like to hear from our host one of these days how the fresh thinking went down in Leinster House.
If he has the ear of Junior Ministers, surely he can – when he judges the time is right – form a brand-new party with these disenchanted folk and kick the doo-doo out of the Old Guard.
They are already speaking directly to the people and we are listening. I think the people will come out and support them in droves if they pick the right place and time.
ZOMBIE BANKER BLUES (PT 2 OF THE WALLETS FULL OF BLOOD TRILOGY) http://vimeo.com/4292136
Scientists, troops and auditors arrive from abroad to investigate the total collapse of a small Republic. They’re looking for ‘Fingers’. His actions had hastened the spiral of the country into a bottomless liquidity trap. They want to interrogate him. Meanwhile an anonymous auditor, hiding out in one of the few sanctuaries which remain, spills the beans on the inhuman practices which led to the collapse. He also fills in the backstory of Brian ‘Brains’ Ahern – the antihero of ‘Houses on the Moon’.
This is the second part of what will eventually be a trilogy of zombie shorts. The first part of the trilogy was titled ‘Houses on the Moon’ and is available at http://vimeo.com/3269259
waste of time
People i do know this suggestion is probably a complete waste of our time, but would it be possible to start a petition for a new government maybe even a new constitution giving executive power to a President voted in every 4 years.
Maybe someone has a better idea, let’s remember Barak Obama used the web to great effect in his presidential campaign.
Its just we need something to get behind, something to rattle a few establishment cages something that says here’s a hundred thousand ( hopefully more ) signatures, Irish citizens who are fed up with this nation of gombeen politics, and faceless Teflon coated mandarins. No way are we going back to exporting our youth to the world without a fight as we are a great nation with a great people the world is ours for the taking.
For decades we endured our youth leaving in there droves because of lack of capital and opportunity to find a better life, then when we joined the Euro we got the capital only to have our politicians go for the quick fix as always and instead of developing our economy building world class exporting oriented Irish companies and what did we get a property bubble that sucked up people into get rich quick schemes.
@ Aidan, there is nothing wrong at all with your suggestion , but can you visualize the present shower FF FG SF giving up the pie , to have it turned over ?
Sure Obama used the web to great effect and every Television station in America told you he was using it too !!
We alas don’t live in Hollywood
What we have isn’t working anymore.
Maybe we should have John McGuinness as Taoiseach he came across very well on the Late Late and its getting more obvious by the day that the one we have isn’t working either.
Were up to our necks in deep water and while we will make it to shore it’s not going to be easy while we have a shower of useless ejits jumping up and down on our heads because they dont want to get there feet wet.
malcolm,.
rightio, will do.
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”
Seneca,
Is this the end of the new beginning or are we still mid beginning of the end?
Enough of this deweyed, dewlapped, dew-stewed ‘Napeloean’ and his ‘Snowball’ with their peasent class politics for peasent class people, no wish to be an Orwellian allegorical ‘Boxer’ for these pigs in the manger.
Four legs good two legs bad? – ah b-ll-x!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aP2XyOHiRSGI&refer=home
check this link out,, bond bubble in USA on the brink,
when it does burst ECB moves in pushing up i rates
and Ireland – middle class disappears down the plug hole.,
and taxes raised for tidying up books don’t materialize and
our gov do not sell any more bonds and then what we do
for next round of borrowing next year…!!!!!!!!
BrendanW,
Live and let live i say,..
I’m not here to please people, but am here to learn and one thing’s
for sure i’m getting that,.. my postings don’t have to be liked all the time surely,.. And I find malcolms postings A plus too.
Putting all the blame on FF is simplistic surely..,
What about laizyness or greed or the super dooper power of microchips that lent themselves to the algorithm models for collateralisations, etc
“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.”
— Albert Einstein
Thus to paraphrase Davids article, if I could be so bold, we are intellectually bereft of institutional ideas. Moribund and glued to outdated dogma with a papier mache of self absorbed interests.
The movement for change will come from the newly dispossessed, the alienated and those bereft of hope, channelled into a cohesive vector by a force as yet unseen but pregnant.
It won’t be long in coming. The “elite” are fast running out of credibility when they start resorting to reactive denigration.
LOve that Einstein wisdom
Its strange how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.Take for example the last number of years,firstly we have a situation where the Banks are pushing very hard to get as much CREDIT
oops hit wrong button,phew It COULD HAVE BEEN RED.lol
Its strange how things change when the shoe is on the other foot.Take for example the last number of years,firstly we have a situation where the Banks are pushing very hard to get as much CREDIT out to the Irish people as possible,under the nose of the Regulator,which generates record profits for the Banks,allows them to pay themselves well,allows them to buy Banks etc.in other Countries,life is good for shareholders and Bond holdes et al. Fianna Fail reap the rewards of all this money sloshing about,win elections,Quangos for their supporters,buy votes with the extra revenue from Taxes,Pet projects,TD’S are riding the crest of this great CREDIT wave.Everything is geared nicely for an easing of the CREDIT tap,nice soft landing,taxpayers up to their tits in debt,Generation of workwhores ready to serve the Status Quo.D4 now showing clear water between the Have’s and Have not’s in terms of wealth.All the right People with the right connections running all arms of the Economy.Coup de tat on all fronts.Drinks and Champers all around for a job well done……………..OOOPPPSSS
Scud missile aka CREDIT crunch.People stop buying houses .cars ,weekend.s away,luxury items etc.etc.etc. No money for Banks ,no money for Fianna Fail….Huff,puff,bluff,no avail as people are still not spending,so onto plan B, borrow where ever you can,Markets,ECB,Pension Funds,NTMA,Parish poor box,Taxpayers…..Underwrite these loans with Irelands Soverignty and try to Insure that D4,Banks ,Fianna Fail et al reduce their losses to a minimium……As I said Shoe is on the other foot as far as the people are concerned.Linehan now calls for Patriotic duty,people respond by shopping in Northern Ireland.VERY VERY important point now is the People dont need to march in the rain or shout and bullagh their heads off ,all they need to do is to continue not spending on houses ,cars,etc.etc.shop in the North in groups etc.and they will break the Banks,Fianna Fail,D4 etc because what the people had’nt realised up to now was that these whores are more dependant on CREDIT than the people.They only exist in their present form because the people were prepared to pay for them.Its time the people turned off their CREDIT tap,hit them where it hurts them most in their pockets and as sure as there is a tail on a dog ,the people will get the changes they ask for.Watch how they will pander to the people then.The people and their money will always be the biggest weapon in the Economy,so dont let them talk ye out of it too easy.There will be no beating Paddy’s army and his Euro.s…”go onn ye boy’s with green”…,”go onn ye boy’s with green”.
POnzi Rep, nicely defined, Jim
Jim, read Irish Times business section yesterday on the
final solution for gov now down to impressing international investors
to buy our bonds and the definitive need for dep. finance to narrow
our bond spread with German bonds to pull this off,…by how and
in what way they flex through the socio-economic life of Ireland
their gombeen muscle,.. fit’s in with your analysis on how dependant
the D4 cabal (now it’s official thanks to above article) are on getting
their paws on the cash swap for bonds and on having to proof they
can pay for the pleasure,.
Very interesting,though people may be interested in the following.
BOI: 27b euro in bonds outstanding. 17b mature by end 2010
AIB: 16b and 7.1b as above
ILP : 9.9b and 6.1b as above
By my count that totals up to somewhere between 80/90 billion,where did I hear them figures before.Maybe its apples and oranges,hard to tell these day’s.LOL ;-0OPS.
Two great postings Jim.
I was talking to a couple last night who invented their own little protest ahead of the local elections. Simple but a great way to get the message back to the heads of all the political parties.
They went to Mass last Sunday where a gate collection was being held for one or the other parties. They refused to contribute. They would actually support the particular party.
In the run up, just to let ALL the politicians know how angry the country is, no-one should contribute to any of the parties, not even if the collector is your uncle or even the Priest himself. Watch that message getting back fairly rapid like.
The other thing to have to hand when they come a knocking on the door is a condensed list of the “5′s”. It has to be condensed because we are dealing with the attention spans of hungry gibbons.
And when they roll your neighbour up to the door to emotionally blackmail you into voting, ask your neighbour why he or she supports 12 year old girls dying from a preventable cancer or our senior citizens dying from cold because the money for Christmas heating was taken away. Or why you spent all your life working abroad to come “home” and raise the next herd of emigrants. Or why the politician beside them looks a lot older than the last time you saw them in person.
DM talks bout the election, the one next will deliver what i hope will be the fat boy on the fat cats of this kip!
Furrylugs, I am proud (in a good way, Deco) to know you! You said this:
“I’d echo that roc. Leaving the permanently Hopeless and Useless to one side, and to be mindful of the selfless work of , for example,Carers (try it some time- humbling experience), look at the tens of thousands of proud workers now on the scrapheap through no fault of their own. It’s important to remember all these people are workers and want to work. They are an asset to the country if the country could find a way to utilise that asset.
Throwing them onto welfare because of mismanagement is allowing the people as a whole to suffer because money was polarised to one section of the populace.
It’s not only taxpayers that should have a vocal franchise. Our newly unemployed are prisioners of this economic war and should be dignified as such by those lucky enough to retain their jobs.
While they still can.”
What a statement of where we should be as a community.
At the moment, I fear that many people in Ireland have swallowed the other pill and are busy just thinking about themselves. “What a pity”, one is tempted to say……..
That is not good enough.
Deco is correct when he (constantly – never stop!) reminds us that we must improve our thinking, our “intellectual capital”. Well, here is one way of starting to do that: copy Furrylugs’ statement there and pin it up on a notice-board.
Philip, quite correctly, has been saying “look after your community” for months, now. He is also right.
Put these three together and DO something, is what I say!
This forum has already helped people in my community in practical ways: because of the type of things we learn from Furrylugs, Deco and Philip, I did not paint my little house-extension myself with my wife; I sought and found a friend, in the end, to do it: he was out of work and got money to put food on the table, or in the “fridge”, if you like, as a result. The fact that I would do this kind of thing naturally, anyway, is beside the point – “helping others” in a thinking way, has been reinforced by these three learned gentlemen on this forum. We probably all do this kind of thing: helping others in our own way. Let’s promote it as a concept: I am sick to death of the “me-fein”ers. The current crisis will soften their cough.
A little job like painting; a little job like gardening; any small thing, if you have work, that you can get a person to do who is out of work: give him a few bob to do it and it will help him to put food on the table.
wills, sorry I have not been here as frequently as normal. I was busy with alot of work. Malcolm is only partly correct about things heating-up with the Leaving Cert. I have said here, before, that I “support my teaching habit” with a little computer business. It has, ironically, soared recently because people who would, last year, have bought a new computer, are bringing the old ones to me to fix, now that things are bad.
wills, I am a member of the FF party – I am well accustomed to taking people’s criticism; I am a teacher – I am well accustomed to taking criticism. Never fear that I would ever recoil from the likes of Malcolm Mclure (who I consider to be a worthy contributor here) or BrendanW (who is capable of spouting the most negative bile).
I came here because I admire DMcW’s writing.
Now, I admire many posters on this site, as well.
I am not leaving.
No need for a “reaching-out”; As far as I am concerned, Malcolm and I “buried that hachet” on the last article, though it appears he still has some “axe-to-grind”. He will not stop me, wills.
Garry, I am not at a FF camp – but if I were, I would inform you all about it.
BrendanW, …… what? You blame me for being a member of FF, ……. so? I have been so for a long time – before all this current trouble started, but now you say that this FF party has “raped” our country for 70 years???!!! Then, you go on to intimate that all parties in this state are equally abismal. What do you want?
Start your own political party, set-out your manifesto and we will all see what your alternative is. We are not all sufficiently wealthy to skip over and back to Malaga and pontificate upon how Ireland should be run, but if you really ARE committed to your new party, I might consider it.
For the record, BrendanW: I am here; My wife is here, and follows what goes on in this forum (that might help Malcolm, too – because he seemed overly communicative about what my relationship with my partner should be). My students know that I am here and are learning, as I am – I await the day that one or more will “jump-in” and post, though the bile exuded by some individuals here might delay that.
I am a teacher and a computer “geek”. I use my real name and have posted here openly. I have even posted a link to a site that allows others to judge me and allow you to see what they say. I am unafraid and undeterred.
Malcolm, I have not ( and will never have) taken “umbrage” at anything you say here. I will state, however, that my work is none of your business; my holidays are none of your business. I am aware that such terms of employment, vis a vis public service teachers, are available in the public realm, or course. However, you know nothing of my personal circumstances outside of that. You should refrain from comment upon my socio-economic status and the status of my relationship with my “life-partner”.
I beg your pardon?
In fact, “How DARE you?”.
Now, I have been working most of the night and apologise to others, that are not directly concerned, for the personal content of some of this post; but, trust me, it needed to be done.
Please, look back up at what Furrylus said – that’s the important thing, here.
Well as a teacher myself I’m going to take your advice and do something for my community. . . . . . . .
I’m going to walk into a polling booth on June 5th and vote for a candidate that cares about Ireland and not those in FF who are mainly responsible for the dreadful mess of the country – what with their Galway tent and basic general corruption. The country is bankrupt for the second time in a generation by this chancers.
Wasn’t Mary Coughlan alleged to have said recently at a function that when it comes to taking decisions that “it’s Fianna Fail WHICH COMES FIRST”. This, the Mary Coughlan, whom John McGuinness believed threatened resignation to Cowen if he was not sacked!! Big fat loss she would have been (not!)
Well it’s about time that other members of FF realised the damage they do by supporting such a party.
Yellow bile (sometimes called ichor) and black bile were two of the four vital fluids or humors of ancient and medieval Greco-Roman alternative medicine (the other two were phlegm and blood). The Greek names for the terms gave rise to the words “choler” (bile) and “melancholia” (black bile). Excessive bile was supposed to produce an aggressive temperament, known as “choleric”. This is the origin of the word “bilious”. Depression and other mental illnesses (melancholia) were ascribed to a bodily surplus of black bile. This is the origin of the word “melancholy”……
The Fact is You Tim and every body needs bile to live. Perhaps you resent the fact that I don’t lick any arses here
Getting a Man in to paint your house is not you doing your bit for the community , it just shows you can afford to get another to do a task for you ,there are many in houses now that can’t afford a take away never mind freshing up the outside walls of their devalued house.
My personal wealth and my trips to Malaga are of little relevance , I bought my first house in 1989 and rented it as 4 flats on the advice of my father at the time and the last twenty years I have worked here, UK, Channel Islands, Holland , Germany and Italy. and have also traveled for vacations
My father all those years ago did also advise me to join the cumman as FF will ‘look after you’ but when I went down to that back room in the publlic house I saw the crowd that were there and all were there for selfish reasons, had jobs with the council were bad teachers, and state workers.
I am also related to Brian Lenhian through family but this does not mean I cannot criticize the shambolic state the country is in due to our ruling political class.
With regard to setting up my own political party this takes finance and resources which I am presently not prepared to invest in as I have contracts running which are still thankfully taking up my time both here and in Europe and China .
Having studied sociology I think there is now a ground movement taking place people who had no interest in the politics of the country are now finally starting to question what has been going on.
My Spanish Girlfriend who teaches philosophy in university in Spain takes home less than an Irish primary teacher ,this is wrong.
Why have we got the best paid civil servants in Europe ?….simply because you are the ones who keep voting in these sons and daughters and grand children of the same men who fought to get us out from an outside power.
You with your arse licking here remind me of the court attendants in the final days of the roman empire. The Game is up Tim , you will see this when you are out over the next few weeks ‘canvasing’ with your parties chosen one.
And now Ireland is again going down the road of handing over control to out side bodies ,we now need the Germans to help us out ,well Tim you should if they help us start working the same hours as the German teacher , then we would have a knowledge Economy.
If you or any of the regular posters here REALLY want to do something then , we need to meet, from there I can get this meeting out to the press media and we can get the momentum to push out Your Party F.F. and all their side kicks, F.G, Sinn Fien and the current Green individuals ( as the green grass roots are not happy with present set up ).
If we don’t meet , then we are just going in circles here as with all respect to Mr Mc Williams who I have met ,is after all presently still only a ‘pop economist’ But if I was to start a Party I would of course want intelligent individuals as Him to be within the fold.
Now I am off to get ready for dinner in Florence where I will be in the company of artists and some ‘heavy hitting’ Italian political followers.As the political change is not just taking place here it is right across Europe , which has now heavily funded us over the years and their tax payers are now questioning why they have to give us ‘Drunk Paddie’ any more hand outs. .. So Tim you would want to learn to use a paint brush for when she wants the bedrooms touched up…
Ciao…
….. and you would want to learn to use a modicum of decorum in your submissions here, BrendanW.
As for some of us here meeting to work something out, I cannot speak for what others may have done, only for my self and what I have done is:
I agreed to two separate meetings with people here and actually travelled to one of the venues – nothing happened. I have conversed via telephone with some people here and something may yet develop; I do not know. I would be willing to make a third attempt, if you have a suggestion. This is a serious situation and it has nothing to do with my personal life, my job, my inability to paint or my membership of a political party; please stop getting so hung up on these extraneous matters and focus on the issue: a date, time, and place – if that is what you want. Make a suggestion and let us see how many people are interested, available, ….. and willing.
I did hint at the Vincent Brown thing on Tuesday at 7:30pm in the hope that some might meet then; no fish biting yet, alas. So you go ahead and make a suggestion and let’s see.
John McGuinness “said he had brought in outside experts, such as economist and Irish Independent columnist David McWilliams, to the department to introduce fresh thinking.”
As you say, Furrylugs, beware allying yourselves with DMcW! This reshuffling (together with Lenihan’s letter) underlines how much these tinpot leaders fear the truth.
I’d just like to hear from our host one of these days how the fresh thinking went down in Leinster House.
If he has the ear of Junior Ministers, surely he can – when he judges the time is right – form a brand-new party with these disenchanted folk and kick the doo-doo out of the Old Guard.
They are already speaking directly to the people and we are listening. I think the people will come out and support them in droves if they pick the right place and time.
“surely he can – when he judges the time is right – form a brand-new party”
Perhaps Mishco, but either way it must be getting more and more difficult to toe the party line when most, if not everything DMcW says is substantially correct. Once we reach that critical mass of rich folks getting skinned alive, and when they detect a suitably large clamour for change among the voting proles, then you will see the schism. Thats just basic protest politics.
If Ganley does well and gets a pan european mandate, no matter how small, thats another vehicle on the back of the native parties foundering.
If ,as I said before, Kenny puts Party before Person and steps to one side for AN Other so that FG does well, thats another vehicle.
Labour might surprise us all. The bridesmaid could grow cojones.
But all the genuinely angry middle ranking politicians have seen what happens to protest parties. They kick off amidst great fanfare, get elected and join either FF or FG in coalition for a few terms then slide into oblivion, with the slide well oiled by the system.
For my money, a new slightly right of centre (to keep the international markets happy) party with a manifesto for Constitutional reform (to drag us from the 19th to the 21st century) would sweep the board. It would probably be a magnet for those who don’t want to sacrifice traditional ideals but are willing to move quickly away from a period that, in time, will be seen as being the most damaging in our short history.
“Celtic Tiger” will become a euphimism for suicidal economics, weak government regulation and the erosion of fundamental democratic social responsibility.
Furry’,
I reckon furrylugs ‘celtic tiger’ up until 1999/2000 worked,
then it turned sour, the balance swung back towards the ponzi bubble parasites favour and all hell broke loose….!!!
mischo’
I reckon David’s article above illuminates on that very point,..
and Lenihan’s response in it’s defensive nature..
David’s bad bank idea was used but David saw it been used for
different purpose’s than he recommended, and the guy that
invited David in for advice was neutralised.
Will, Mishco and Furrylugs: re Lenihan’s response, its good to see that the Indo has thrown its weight in support of DMcW’s analysis with Bruce Arnold’s piece today.
Perhaps there is hoe for us yet, particularly if McGuinness pick up the challenge to abandon the out-of-tune Failing Pianna and play some modern music with a party that faces up to 21st century realities.
“Failing Pianna”
AH thats witty. And sounds like erectile dysfunction.
furrylugs – I endorse your political dreams and it’s best policy with an angle of least resistence to what we know and where we are coming from.
More of an aspirational Aisling than a dream John.
I’ts about the only way I can see people being given some hope. Any glimmer for the remainder of the year.
Now there’s a thought.
Aisling 45. How’s that for a new party name?
BTW,
As far as I know, the motion to scrap “scrapping the Christmas bonus” was defeated by 3 votes. I think.
Jackie H Rae, Ml Lowry and John McGuinness missed the vote.
Great!
“http://www.independent.ie/health/latest-news/consultants-get-836430000-rise-as-hse-plans-cuts-1719740.html”
Now pardon my language but this is completely off-the-wall-sh**e.
Who in the name of the Almighty is running this country?
“The idea that this country is a haven of difficulty simply is untrue.”
So stated the Minister for Finance defending the cut in Christmas “bonuses” at the Dail debate.
http://www.kildarestreet.com/debates/?id=2009-04-23.162.0
Completely out of touch with average voters.
again, i see this as plaster cracking in the chamber,..
Pressure is intensifying, too much compromising, too many sleepless nights
and whadyya get, denial exposed for all to see if they look and thks to
your post their i’m looking.
John McGuinness wast the only sitting TD who expressed a concern about the comperence of our senior civil service and look what happened a sure fire case of SHOOT THE MESSENGER if ever i seen one
Full text.
http://www.johnmcguinness.com/
Furry’,
thks for link,..
Public Service monolith monster,……………must die,……….
ABSOLUTELY,..
IT IS KILLING the public purse.
bloggers,,.
this link revealing,,
may explain the constant hedging of bets going on behind
scenes alluded too in Davids article
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D97N1KH02.htm
our bond business maybe in jeopardy..!!!! oh dear…..
brilliant analysis below in how much NAMA is actually going to cost the taxpayer at the end of this ‘pinky and the brain’ venture NAMA.
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/
Can an island of 4million in economic meltdown provide 50 billion
in tax revenue for this, outside of everything else.,…
How is it that the international markets are buying our bonds, surely
they have this data which show’s no go on tax takings….
A poster did post “lookslike the gov are making this up as they go”,
i’m beginning to suspect the Gov have already decided the jig is
up and are playing ‘blind monkey’ with the banks and leaving
an open door for the IMF fire brigade arrive and put out the fire
in their usually fashion,…
suggestion,, background been prepared for IMF entry into
Ponzi Rep. socio-economic life…..
Furrylugs – re: aisling 45 / a dream / aspiration etc
if you were to nail a proclamation to the door of leinster house what would it say ?
eg…we want a new republic for the people by the people ie 2nd Republic ?
if a new republic was requested by the people then the government must disband and resign and a election called for.
I know if the French were to find out that they were decived as we have been they certainly would be doing this.
The last time we saw a proclamation in Dublin, everyone was shot.
Dev was saved by Yankee Doodle.
I thought it was because he cracked in the mills and they reckoned he couldn’t be the real leader?
Make this forum the starting place to draft the new declaration. It could be a living entity, edited with consensus, until something that is fit to be released to the public at large is ready. This may only take a matter of days considering how prolific and inspired some of us are. Do we need a lawyer among us to perfect, proof-read etc.? There are certainly many eloquent writers here but what are their professions? Or does it really matter whether you have letters after your name moving into a brave new world (hopefully)? I wouldn’t feel confident or experienced enough to write, so someone please start it off. Afterwards we can decide methods and locations of distribution/public proclamation/display. At last! – ACTION!
Herewith the target audience.
The All-Party Oireachtas Committee On The Constitution,
Fourth Floor,
Phoenix House,
7-9 South Leinster Street,
Dublin 2,
Ireland
Telephone: +353 1 662 5580
Fax: +353 1 662 5581
Email: info@apocc.irlgov.ie
Denis O’Donovan TD (FF), chairman
Senator Michael Finucane (FG), vice-chairman
Barry Andrews TD (FF)
James Breen TD (IND)
Ciarán Cuffe TD (GP)
Senator Brendan Daly (FF)
Senator John Dardis (PD)
Jimmy Devins TD (FF)
Pádraic McCormack TD (FG)
Arthur Morgan TD (SF)
Senator Ann Ormonde (FF)
Jan O’Sullivan TD (LAB)
Peter Power TD (FF)
Senator Joanna Tuffy (LAB)
Range of Task
The committee has completed the study of the Articles of the Constitution dealing with the institutions of state. It is now dealing with fundamental rights.
It has published the Ninth Progress Report: Private Property (April 2004) and is currently studying the Articles of the Constitution dealing with the family (Articles 41, 42 and 40.3).
Broadly speaking, the committee’s remaining task is to consider:
• fundamental rights (apart from the right to life and property rights, which have already been considered)
• Article 45 (Directive Principles of Social Policy)
(Well,well,well, fancy that)
• a miscellany ranging from the Preamble, the name of the state, the position of the Irish language, to the transitory provisions.
I know where my first email Monday morning is headed.
F
Furrylugs, this is excellent information – thank you.
Adambyss says everyone shoot …then furrylugs says …everyone was shot …..are we all in the same studios?
All Party – It is my guess we will have new official languages in the reformed constitution to include : Polish , Russian and Chinese .
We are probably beyond the point in this mess where rational economic assessment has any value whatever. I agree with those who say that things are so dire that the conclusion of the End Game could be only a few months, if not weeks away. Lenihan still hopes this is not the case, and he seems to have had some support in that belief from the ECB, although he has been told to keep schtum about it. Lets accept that we are in a deep recession, but that in time, and with much belt-tightening, we can eventually flounder out of it. How would we recognize the green shots of recovery, if they were to appear, say middle of next year with the bold FF still in charge?
A few basic thoughts taken from the economist’s ragbag:
MV=PQ. This is an important equation, right up there with E=MC2. M (money or the supply of money) times V (velocity — which is how fast the money goes through the system — if you have seven kids it goes faster than if you have one) is equal to P (the price of money in terms of inflation or deflation) times Q (roughly standing for the Quantity of production, or GDP)
So what happens is, if we increase the supply of money and velocity stays the same, and if GDP does not grow;— that means we’ll have inflation, because this equation always balances. But if you reduce velocity (which is happening today) and if you don’t increase the supply of money, you are going to see deflation. Just now the velocity of money has slowed significantly. People aren’t borrowing to spend, they are paying off debt and saving if possible.
One key to watch is the debt-to-GDP ratio. You can grow debt fast; but at some point you start to have to grow the economy faster than you are growing debt,
Alternatively, Irving Fisher considers the velocity of money the most important factor to follow when getting out of a recession. The most visible measure of velocity is the number of shopping malls, stores selling stuff, and eateries catering for the time-limited. The numbers of these expanded rapidly during the Celtic Tiger, which raised consumer spending in March 2008 to 56% of GDP. That compared well with 63% in the UK and 71% in the US according to Davy Stockbrokers. They explained the difference by the fact that Irish consumers had not tapped as deep into housing wealth for discretionary spending on goods and services. (Although that seems rather incredible). We don’t know what the current ratio is, but a rising Consumer spending to GDP Ratio would be a sign of recovery.
However, the Mall-store-restaurant numbers will continue to drop rapidly over the coming months, as the velocity of money slows. Economists call this rationalization. Penny-wise-stores, Public welfare offices and Voluntary bodies will occupy some of the empty space but the green shoots of recovery will only appear when average city folk once again have discretionary income to spend on something fashionable.
Middle of next year seems optimistic. More likely to happen in 2012 or 2013.
Don’t be tempted to make life-defining decisions based on this analysis— its only a guess.
But as good a guess as is about at the moment Malcolm. What happens if P keeps rising ,as is, with our bond spreads and all this talk of default?
Hyper-inflation to raise the velocity through the system of limited Money?
Let’s face it, bond issue is just talk. Look that the failure rates will the last bunch of issues from Germany and a few others. There’s no money out there. Malcolm’s equation needs to be applied at a global level. M is heading for zero irrespective of what P does. The reality is that across the board right across the globe, principles are not recoverable and that means losses and M going into the bin. V is dropping now simply becasue productivity is dropping as there is no M to justify it (even though there is human demand). The stimulant effects of growth by Dept (M) and by Consumerism (V?) is gone. The P lever is useless becasue da cash ain’t there. Q has somehow to fire up to get the ball rolling…state stimulation with funny money or similar public cooperative ventures. We are witnessing a complete banking reboot.
Money supply formulae are only relevant when your Central Bank has control of them.Our Interest rates etc. are determined by Europe.(see interest rates versus inflation/deflation)…Europe does’nt tailor it’s Economic policies to suit Ireland alone.Houseprice Inflation etc.which caused a lot of our problems could only have been restricted by Bank lending policy,which it clearly was’nt and nothing was done in any meaningfull way by the Irish Regulating Authorities to address the imbalancing nature of their lending…N.B the Q in the above formula does’nt represent GDP(formula for GDP is much more complex) but it would represent the value of transactions if you could get your hands on any meaningfull figures in this Bananna Economy.That said it is interesting to note that by increasing taxes “M” is reduced and given the present Zombie nature of the Banks “v” is being restricted through lending policy even though demand from Buisness is there.So in conclusion at the moment all policies from Government and the Banks seems to be driving us down a deflationary spiral.Economic lectures from now onn will contain a special chapter on Ireland and what not to do under any circumstances,ever,unless you want to destabilise an Economy and beggar its citizens.Gross incompedance.Grade for semester Fianna “F” for Fail.
Jim: Agreed that some of the parameters in the formula are beyond our direct control. Even in a banana republic, we still have access to meaningful data, although some of the rules need to be changed.
Vat receipts and disbursements and credit card receipts together could provide a monthly measure of economic health in various sectors. Combining modern accounting systems with returns of these measures via the internet could show the central planners where urgent help is needed in the real economy. Has anyone ever seen these figures published on even an annualized arrears basis for Ireland?
Michael Hennigan over at Finfacts seems to be able to get hold of good data.
http://www.finfacts.com/
I know he dips in here now and again.
To add to your economic indicator monitor list Malcolm, if we had mortgage arrears over 3 months, cars under 2 years repossessed, one way flights (2 people or more), a/c in arrears for agristores and builders merchants plus the profile of people approaching MABS we’d have a good livetime snapshot.
Folks,
I just learned that Vincent Brown will host a major election launch on Tues at 7:30pm for 20 candidates in the “People Before Profit” party. It will be held at Unite Hall, Mid Abbey Street, Dublin.
All interested parties welcome, I’m told.
sounds worthwhile
Alright lads looks like Fianna Failure could be out by Christmas, have a look at this article
http://www.politics.ie/current-affairs/63412-fianna-fail-down-five-points-latest-redc-poll-10pt-gap-between-leading-parties.html
I saw bruce arnolds response today but I never saw the article by BL how do I find that ?
I am in Dublin Mon & Tues and might be free tues eve and may go to Vincent Brown’s Meeting…..am thinking .
John Allen, If you do that, I will be willing to skip my FF meeting on Tues night and travel to Dublin, if you are interested?
John ALLEN, here is the link to BL article:
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/states-priority-is-helping-economy-not-the-developers-1716678.html
ditto
Every social system would appear to contain within itself the seeds of its own decay (Lipson 1920 The Economic History of England)
Furrylugs, have I got this right?:
BL has hidden, within his article, either a stupid mistake on his part or a blatant admission that NAMA will cost the taxpayer the same amount in recapitalisation as the amount of the “appropriate discount” at which the state will “acquire” the loans.
BL says:
“They [Banks] would prefer to write down bad loans gradually over many years, thereby hoping to avoid the need for recapitalisation.”
Then, BL says:
“NAMA forces banks to get their house in order. It cleans up the banks’ balance sheets in a decisive manner…..”
It occurs to me that these two statements together mean: “We will force the banks to accept recapitalisation by acquiring their loans via NAMA – whether they like it or not (we are insisting upon giving them taxpayers’ money)”.
Now, have I interpreted that correctly, or not, please?
Finally, BL says:
“I suspect Mr McWilliams is living up to his reputation for swimming against the tide, rather than offering any serious analysis.”
……. but, surely, BL sees that DMcW’s analysis has benn correct all along and this “swimming against the tide” remark is like an admission that “the tide” does not want to do the right thing?
Could I be too cynical, or is this a setup and Birnham Wood is now on the way to Dunsinane?
Mechanism of NAMA is I think… It starts off with a bank having given a loan for 100M on something that was worth 200M say. Now the 100M is not being paid back and the asset is probably worth 90M now, so NAMA pays the bank 70M – not too low as to damage the banks capital too much and the bank eats the 30M loss and they can move on….hopefully (NOTE A below). Meantime, Mr taxpayer via NAMA has acquired something for 70M and still try to chase the Loanee for the 100M. The loanee will still be in no position to pay the 100M, but it buys time, time enough for the asset to reflate (NOTE B Below)( after a while to allowthe 100M to be recovered and loanee is off the hook. Of course, NAMA will be taking some good loans that will be paid off for sure in an effort to help sell bonds to help tide them over (paper over the cracks as it were.)
NOTE A&B are fantasies. The international lenders to banks have no money and are probably is deeper doo doo than we think. Assets are heading south. They were always grossly overvalued anyway.
Philip, thanks; but I am confused:
If a debt is an asset and NAMA pays the bank 70M for the debt-asset of 100M,
surely the bank’s balance sheet has just lost 30M.
Now, do that a few times and we will have to recapitalise the bank again, so the state is shooting itself in the foot here, surely – or, at least, shooting the taxpayer in the foot?
Hi Tim,
As far as I can work out, NAMA buys at a discount, as described above. If the banks eats the difference as a loss, then fine but I don’t think that is whats happening. The banks are instead getting constant drip-feed recapitalisation to compensate for its losses, so even buying at a discount means the state could end up paying close to 100% of the bad debts anyway.
As an aside, I’m back in the motherland again for a few days and I noticed the development of 30-odd 2 and 3 bed apartments next to a busy crossroads down the road from me is still almost completely vacant, with for ‘sale signs’ in most windows. I notice also that the advertised asking price has not budged since they were completed towards the end of 2007, and still at the level of equivalent apartments for sale in central Tokyo. Now, my small brain can barely cope with all of this economic voodoo and witchcraft, but it seems to me that whoever is selling these things is not really trying very hard. On a very off-day I might be tempted to speculate that having abandoned any hope of shifting the things, the developer and (presumably the bank who is also on the hook for this) had a lot to gain from maintaining this pricing on the off-chance that the state would bail them out (tada!! NAMA) , or am I just being paranoid and cynical?
Tim,
You are right to be curious. What is the answer to this conundrum?
If NAMA gets the assets at a knockdown price, how will the banks take such a large writedown?
If NAMA overpays for the liabilities (sorry, assets I mean), and the banks have a smaller writedown, how can NAMA fund the difference between what was paid, and what they can recoup from the loanee?
With their thinking, the key point is that the banks will be healthy and will start to lend again. Not only that, but being healthy, they will be able to borrow on the international money markets without a Government guarantee, once it expires. They are hoping that healthy banks will be the catalyst for recovery. Hoping that Joe Soap will take out mortgages again – for as close to peak-boom prices. In doing so, the loanee will recoup most of the cost from individuals, and NAMA will recoup most of it’s costs from the loanee.
This is their key mistake in my view. The underlying ‘real economy’ ; the commercial economy that sells things abroad, bringing money into the country, is suffering. Confidence has been shattered. People are paranoid about their employment security. Aggregating over the entire economy, I don’t think enough people will take out the mortgages ; and even if they did, the real economy as it currently stands is not strong enough to service the debt over it’s lifetime. It needs to structurally change in a big way in order to absorb high levels of debt ; away from a dependence on domestic property and it’s spin-offs, away from the ‘job for life’ attitude in the public service with all it’s huge costs, and into a high-innovation economy based on true commercial potential. Without this structural change, NAMA is doomed to failure.
Brian Lenihan talks about not repeating Japan’s mistakes in the 1990′s. Well if we could have anything like Japan’s real economy, we would be in a very good position indeed. Never mind their banking system ; they continued to innovate and sell on the world market very successfully. We are not in the same league.
Brian Lenihan also slags David McWilliams. I happen to agree with Lenihan about not rescinding the guarantee. Once you make a guarantee, you should only unravel it very carefully. Investors don’t like a ‘now you see me, now you don’t’ attitude,
But he should have watched David McWilliams comments on housing, and especially globalisation, market a few years ago. If he had, he might have foreseen the current catastrophe, and debacles like Dell and many others. But he didn’t. He was too busy climbing the greasy pole, like all the rest of them.
The salient point is that the damage has already been done, during the Bertie years. Ahern set the tone, and the idiotic Paddy culture did the rest, under the guise that the ‘country was awash with money’. What utter crap that was. The country was awash with debt.
NAMA or no-NAMA, it’s all immaterial. The underlying real economy is the real driver, and ultimately there is no way out of a very messy unravelling of one of the most ridiculous false booms in the history of the world.
Paddy.
Paddy, thank you very much for that elucidation; it makes very good sense.
From what you say, it appears that the plan is to keep the guarantee in place until the banks are fit, meanwhile trying to keep the foreign markets/investors confident in the banks/guarantee, so that they can still attract/borrow money to invest in the underlying real economy, in order to try and trade our way out of the mess.
But you fear that the government plan is to use the inward investment to re-float the housing market; is that correct?
Tim,
Billy Kelleher stated on PrimeTime a while back ‘We need people to take out mortgages’. The Government also set up a 500 million fund to provide mortgages about 6 months ago, and have jokers like Frank Fahey providing ‘advice’ to young people at seminars about getting their foot ‘on the ladder’. They very much want to reflate the housing market ; firstly to clear inventory at prices that will recoup the initial loans at as close to the full loan value as possible; secondly because they know little else.
Part of their problem, and the banks with it, is that they have been so fixated on property for the past 10 years, they don’t have the understanding required to invest in the businesses of the future. They talk about the ‘smart economy’ but I don’ think either the Government or the banks have a clue what that means.
Taking a 50 year view, it would be good for Ireland if there is a shake-up in who allocates credit ; a foreign bank with a good feel for business would be far superior to an Irish bank with a talent for self-preservation and misallocating funds.
Finally, given that the state is guaranteeing the banks, they also don’t want a situation where that guarantee would be called in. There is a mutual dependence there, brought about by that wretched guarantee. If it’s called in, it’s time to head to the hills.
Paddy
You are right to be confused. The trick is to take the suddenness out of the system. Letting the air out slowly and sneaking back in thro’ a combination of back door national assistance and then maybe a fillup from foreign investment when they see that things are getting better. The fact is that this is a means of softening the hit from bad loans. My bigger concern is that NAMA has overvalued assets as it is – which is why the cynical comments on the debt buy are pertinent in my opinion.
folks’
in fact can it be perhaps the banks and the gov are playing
blind monkey, they have the data and it’s telling them we are going
to hit a brickwall trying to sell our bonds so sit tight lay the groundwork
and welcome the IMF in when the pop are massaged enough on the idea and no-one looses face or get’s the blame.
wills, as I have suggested before, they know exactly what they are doing – no-one could be this stupid; and I have sat on discussion-panels with Lenihan and he is a very intelligent guy – not stupid at all, but very smart; the stupid decisions are not his, but Cowen’s (probably, this means “the bankers”).
hear ye tim,,,,
Reminds me of that old Uriah Heep song “Sell your Soul”.
Tim: That is a really useful comment. I think you could be right.
Lenihan has the cut of a patrician about him, and apparently has a sense of duty. He is caught up in a mess of other people’s making and, looking round he cannot see anyone else in FF he would trust to do the job. Cowen is a cross he has to bear, more concerned about political advantage than the nation’s welfare. A parish pump politician.
“Could I be too cynical, or is this a setup and Birnham Wood is now on the way to Dunsinane?”
I don’t know what that means Tim but the answers to all your questions lie within Davids article and to a great extent in Bruce Arnolds article of today.
As an aside, it’s mighty to see people who had to emigrate still choosing to comment here, even though the “Diaspora” have no voice election wise. I was not amused by the comments about Florence nor the personal invective. There’s none of us here, that I can make out, blowing trumpets. The common theme is what has been falsely called “Patriotism”. Divisiveness is a common trait of the Irish people for generations as demonstrated by our penchant for melancholia when under pressure. Social Unity is called for. And a cleansing of the past. Maturity and acceptance of all reasonable democratic arguments.
For the record, nothing mature nor democratic is emanating from the ruling party at the present time, in my opinion.
Nothing is emanating because the lights are not on…
I’ll nail my colours to the mast here by saying I genuinely (better expressed by Brendan Keenan) do not believe the politicians or the bankers set out to wreck their countries or their businesses. Furthermore, I think they are like rabbits caught in the headlights of this storm. Again (as Brendan brilliantly puts it – Thursday Indo 23rd) it makes silence of the lambs sound like a cacophony.
Stupification of the noveau-riche by easy money…
philip’,
Can i say on the motive relating to the elites business practise,
let me say, the bubble they milked and engineered out of the real economy
is what corroded the real socio-economic heartland of Eire,. and this idea
underway in the meeja that it is all a big happy accident is a fraud to duck
out the backdoor from facing up to the consequences of their racketeering
business activities wearing the respectability of collar and tie to confidence
trick and milk it milk it milk before it turned sour which these guy’s know
alway’s happens, thats why it is always smashing and grabbing smashing
and grabbing economics at work, cos they know it is doomed til the next
bubble opportunity comes along.