Those familiar with George Orwell’s classic,1984, no doubt recognised doublespeak when they heard it last week in Dáil Eireann. In 1984, the official language of the state described things as being precisely the opposite of what they actually were. In Ireland, the Cowen administration is at the same thing. Have they no shame?
Last week, in true Orwellian style, fearing the catastrophic collapse of our balance sheet due to the liabilities of the rotten banking system, the government came up with an agency, which they called the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA).Who do these people think we are?
The toxic debt of the banks is no more an asset than the defaulted debt of Argentina is an asset. It is a liability, for God’s sake. If these loans were assets, there would be no problem. But they are worthless pieces of land and ludicrous property deals, which are now dragging this country down.
These loans and their peddlers – the banks and the developers – are the financial anvil that is dragging us under.
Even Orwell would have blushed. Our government, not content simply to spin, has resorted to trying to change the meaning of language. It’s hysterical, in the true meaning of the word.
Now that I’ve got that off my chest, let us examine the Orwellian NAMA project.
Well before Christmas, this column argued that the best thing we could do was to introduce a ‘financial skip’ into which we would need to throw all the bad debts incurred by our bankers and developers in the boom.
Back then, the so-called experts were saying that the banks were fine and that Ireland should not do anything too radical. My idea was seen as radical. Like all new ideas, it has gone through the typical three stage cycle of ridicule, followed by violent opposition, and ultimately universal acceptance.
Initially, the ‘skip’ idea was dismissed by representatives of the banks and the regulator, who said that their stress-testing showed the banks were in good shape.
Then it was violently opposed, as seen on a recent Prime Time show on RTE television, by those who regarded it either as an open-ended bailout or those who argued the opposite – saying that the recapitalisation would be sufficient. Now it is being universally accepted, as set out in the budget.
Like all these initiatives, the devil is in the detail. The crucial thing is that we, the people, do not pay ‘cash for trash’ and bail out the banks, which is why this column argued last week that the financial skip was the right way to go, but its financing had to be structured so that it cost the taxpayer nothing.
Two significant issues are at stake. The first is the extent of the write-downs, and the second is, who will pay? Both are related.
In its simplest form, the less the state pays for the assets, the more the banks, their shareholders and the developers will pay. If the state buys assets at moderate discounts, the taxpayer will pay. So is it in everyone’s interest that we buy the assets at rock bottom prices? Yes it is, but that’s not the end of the story.
As there is no market now, if the state were to buy assets at today’s prices, it could acquire this land at a huge discount of 20 per cent of book value. The minister says he is looking at a toxic book of €80 billion to €90 billion. (It’s a bizarre world when €10,000,000,000 is seen as a rounding error – but there you go!)
This means that the banks lose 80 per cent of that book value of about €64 billion. The taxpayer takes on €16 billion of debts now for a possible upside of €48 billion if property assets were ever to go back up to 2006 prices. In such a case, the taxpayer would be reasonably well protected and could get a significant upside.
But the banks would be hammered and would be paying the cash back to the taxpayer for years. It means shareholders would be torched and, for many years, Irish banks, even after consolidation, would not be in apposition to pay dividends.
The banks would have escaped nationalisation, but we would face massive bank charges for some years. Obviously, Irish people would prefer to do business with whatever new entrants came into the market.
One other concern we must have – unpalatable as it may be to many – is that it is important to keep certain developers and certain delinquent borrowers on the hook. If we wipe out any possibility of their making money on some of the assets that we now own, but they will still administer, they might throw in the towel.
This means giving them some ‘hope value’ in the ‘haircut’ they are to take. We have to make a judgment call as to whether we, the taxpayers, represented by the Orwellian NAMA, actually want to operate all the empty hotels and golf courses that will no doubt end up in the skip.
Therefore, the price of the discounts might not just be about today’s market price, but might have to keep places open. It would be a mistake to make the discount so severe as to force many firms out of business because the owners can’t see any future. This is a tricky conundrum, but one that we have to tease out.
On the positive side, NAMA will effectively be the Irish property market for the next ten years. This means that, with enlightened management, we could get planning right.
We could also judiciously release properties onto the market in the coming years, so that the cowboy era of the past ten years is banished to history.
Thus the people in charge of this new agency need to see how it fits into Irish society, as well as simply Irish finance. They will need to be more than just liquidators, accountants and debt ‘workout’ specialists. At the top, we need people who have a vision for what type of country we want to rebuild.
To do this, we need regime change, and the current jokers need to be replaced by a new generation of competent Irish people. In short, we need a generational change, because a huge proportion of the upper echelons of Irish finance is implicated in the land/banking scam of the past five years.
The banks need to be cleared out – as must the senior public servants who oversaw this lamentable state failure.
Many of the most delinquent former princes of the Irish boom will fall on their swords. The liquidators appointed by NAMA must make the key decisions, not the politicians. If we allow ourselves to be conned again by this government, either by allowing it to control NAMA with its own cronies or, worse still, to be forgiven at election time, we ourselves will be responsible for a truly Orwellian nightmare.
Furrylugs – the Declaration of Albroath is truely a magnificant statement .Well Done .
furrylugs – there is a lot more fertility in the air this year and I bet there are more bumps to be seen on that road to bantry too .
More bumps than Neidin has humps John.
Furrylugs – The Arabic name for my camel was really Nadeen and in M’Asail Beag Dubh his name is Neidin …….amazing how Atlantian compares with the Phoenicians
John Allen said: “The above is astrology and probabilities and not clairvoyancy .” I wonder which you think of these figments of the imagination you consider the most reliable? For me, probability only works with integers, the others not at all. However, I endorse your right to express your opinions and leave it to others to judge their validity. I’m just not quite sure that this is the right forum for those ideas. Perhaps you can convince us.
Regarding your other lightly sketched ideas about Tir na n’og and Phoenician links, you are probably aware that there is a real possibility that stronger evidence will emerge to support these. The problem with your approach is that you mix a smattering of hard evidence with a ladleing of mythology and a dollop of esotericism that brings these subjects into academic disrepute, and makes more difficult the wider acceptance of Sykes and Oppenheim’s radical ideas about our Celtic origins. S&O are carefully compiling the solid DNA and language evidence that lend those ideas some support. You may claim to write for a popular audience and that there is widespread support for a poetic approach that combines mythology with esotericism. I think you might just be muddying the waters, and anyway it has nothing to do with current events.
As I long expected would happen sometime, we have lost the critical and well thought out ideas of lurker cum participant Huffpuffpolly, who obviously, after a short exposure, failed to realize that this blog tends to leaven the hard arguments about economic catastrophe with other contributions in a lighter vein. Took a view that this blog didn’t have the balance right and decided not to grace it with further participation. A professional reputation could be at stake? Unless we cut down the banter, this blog could lose the plot. Notice DMcW didn’t appear in Indo this week? Perhaps he’s having a well-deserved break from all this axe-grinding.
Oh what a bloody good rip of a comment.
We’ve lost Lorcan,{I think} now PuffyHuffy.
But I’d have to go way back to the time I was chastised.
This is an economic forum.
First and foremost.
It’s not a chat room.
There are some people contributing that, quite obviously, are well on the money.They should hold sway. Lets take Huff. Economics degree. Lash at it woman. Give up both barrels. Don’t run away.
I welcome the opportunity, and I’ve said this before, to offer social comment but this site is, and should be, about clinical assessment of the economic realities propounded(great word) by DMcW.
To nail my colours to the mast, I’m a DMcW man,come hail, come shine.
Not FF, nor FG. Nor Green, Nor Indo, Nor SF, Nor any of the above.Including Labour BTW.
Bring on the next Wobble.
F
“Unless we cut down the banter, this blog could lose the plot”
Yup.
Totally agreed.
I’d gladly skim on the outside to see MK1, Deco, Lorcan et al deliberate.
The other point being as an open forum, democracy holds sway so comment at will. And welcome.
If it is not of your liking, fine.
At the end of the day it’s a voluntary contribution.
And a cursory examination will reveal some quite savage variances of opinion.
Meself, I’d say drive on and if yer fit for the fight, say what you have to say.
This is not the time for faint hearts.
F
Moon Wobble Picture Apr 2009
Economic Art
Imagine a Large Mountain surrounded by stiffling air and a very very large open cone sprouting up high into the sky red hot gasses and lava and very loud noises .Now next imagine people that are climbing up have turned to lets say ‘salt’ in other words they are dead or lost everything .At the bottom those people that adapted have managed to run safely to hiding .
@liam;
“the sooner you learn to live with this,,, the better” this post liam,
posted by your goodself, presumes on my behalf,.. now if you
dont mind, presuming on my behalf may get you into hot water.
You are out of your depth,,,,,…..when it comes to anthropological
dissertations on the origins of markets….
……of course…. maybe your “parachute got ?…” in dictating
to me to check my mouth and your “over cynical lapse’ kicked
in again,… so i will forgive you on your delinquency.
I really cannot make any sense of this. So I guess you must be correct:and I must be totally out of my depth. I shall not offend you by asking that you would stoop so low as to offer such trivialities as ‘arguments’ or ‘reasons’ or even ‘evidence’. Your one-liners are clearly the mere mortal manifestations of an intelligence that operates on a higher plane of existence and I beg forgiveness for troubling you with what must be such base concerns.
Basking in the glory of your wisdom and profundity,
-Liam.
@liam,.
there you go again making comments on character.
Oh for the love of God…
OK Wills, I am very sorry if my sarcasm offends you, I admit is not a very effective delivery vehicle for any message. So here’s the deal:
As with everybody else here, I don’t know you from Adam and therefore could care less about you as an individual. However, if you have things which you think are useful and interesting to say (and I’m convinced that you do) I’d like to hear them, because that is why I am here in the first place (and am in fact grateful that you have reminded me of that). I’m not really interested in living in an echo-chamber of my own opinions and prejudices, I would rather have them challenged, which I will also admit requires a degree of patience on my part that I have probably not extended to you. But, it is all too easy to make pronouncements that assume knowledge on the part of readers that doesn’t exist, and therefore come across as simply lacking rigour.
I guess what I hope for, from all contributors here, is less noise, more signal.
http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Signal-to-noise_ratio
Happy trails,
-L
@liam;
okedok,.. i’m good for that too..,
@Deco;
My take on this is,.. INBS is getting in on the NAMA REPO man action.
They are lining up to pass toxic debts over to NAMA and cleanse
the balance sheets of toxic waste and get going again blowing up
ponzi property bubbles., so they turnover a coupla cards to set the ball
rolling for NAMA to pik up the tab.
@furrylugs,..
appreciate your request, and am trying my best
to extemporise as much as possible,. i will try harder,
i know my comments are very dense and am trying
to distill down to easy speak, i’m working inward from
a distant point.
Wills,
Look.
You’re off the wall intelligent. You’ve the whole thing worked out but like a good man, will you take a sos and let the rest of us get a handle on what you’re saying.
Like I’m fairly bright meself and it took me 3 months to get me head around JohnALLEN which turned out to make bundles of sense.
Will ye give the rest of us poor Mortals a chance?
Good Man
Who is there, to set us free from the current regime.?
Are we lost irrevocably.
Methinks this is just the beginning.
The worst may be yet to come..
If it results in a transformation of the political landscape in Ireland-some good will have been achieved.
‘Who will deliver us from the body of this political death.’?
Today we hear of of 3000 new jobs, courtesy of the ESB,( and the Green Party.)
It is just a short few months since the ESB unions were complaining that the ESB were not going to employ the hundreds of recently qualified apprentices at the huge salaries to which the ESB have become accustomed.
Suddenly the landscape has changed.
Presumably, the ESB are not only going to retain their recently graduated apprentices at ‘to die for’ wages, AND the same pension AND HEALTH CARE conditions as their predecessors..but they are recruiting 3000 new workers on the same paradise-like conditions to help us adopt to to the Green Party agenda of clean renewable energy etc.
Wonderful.!
http://www.soldiersofdestiny.org/esbworkersparadise.htm
Yeah this is something that aroused a certain level of suspicion. Anytime I see a Green minister smiling in front of the camera, proud as can be, an alarm bell goes off in my head – this will be a disaster. Because when the Greens are smiling like Cheshire cats, it is a sure sign that some ideas that don’t add up, are about to get taxpayer support.
I am suspicious that this does not add up.
The ESB might be “creating” 3000 jobs, but their expensive monopoly electricity is destroying jobs in manufacturing where power is a very large cost. In order to ‘ensure’ that the ESB proceeds with job creation, we are all going to have to pay more electricity. The ESB unions will continue to support FF. As usual we have the two bureacratic socialist parties (FF and Labour) fighting for territory in the public sector unions – to the detriment of national energy policy. Watch the Labour Party’s reaction – it will be part sour grapes – part an appeal to the rest of the public sector. Neither of these two parties seem to appreciate the fact that their vote in the private sector is slipping to Fine Gael and Richard Bruton(eh, let’s forget about Kenny lite for the moment). The only thing stopping FG is Libertas. Plus the possibility that Gay Mitchel and a few other FG survivors of the Noonan disintegration, might produce gaffes. It tends to happen when they are put beside a microphone. Libertas and Sinn Fein are the only two protest parties left – and let’s face it – there is only so much of Mary Lou that any one can endure.
The real problem with the electricity generation business is that the pricing arrangements are organized to along the lines of ‘high barriers to entry’. this means only organizations with clout can be involved. And this means that smaller producers scattered in coastal inlets or on hill tops are not going to get it. So the ESB are about the only organization in Ireland that can ‘create’ this many jobs in the next five years – they are safe in the knowledge that their revenue stream is gauranteed. This is effectively a political decision so as to keep FF and the ESB unions cosy, and keep the Greens in their ministerial mercs for the rest of the governments term of office. The real party to be ‘celebrating’ the fact that the greens will get their new toys, is the bankers. This deal is a real gift to the bankers because of ot’s political implications. Lenihan will be minister for finance for the next three years. Bruton is prepared to let bad banks (everything except AIB/BOI) fail and get no taxpayer bailout. Lenihan seems to follow the ludicruous British model – save the bankers and hurt the taxpayer. Like all bureacratic socialist parties FF do not give much respect to the taxpayer (mind you the Labour Party are much worse).
Yeah, new toys for the Greens, more nepotism in the ESB, stability for FF, and more bailouts for the bankers. Maybe we should all move to Killarney are start lobbying Jackie Healy Hae to stop supporting bankers bailouts. Either that or a meltdown in the councils that will cause the FF backbenchers to walk out over any more bailouts.
Build the Commission for Energy Regulation into that scenario Deco and it’s all wrapped up between the quangos.
If anyones looking to bore themselves backways, have a browse through this lot.
http://www.cer.ie/en/renewables-reports-and-publications.aspx
@deco,
bullseye.
Malcolm – I do not dispute your statements and you have a valid point . Nevertheless , your methodology may not appeal to some . My novel approach is a new concept embracing an older proven science and in good Time this will be recognized and embraced into the science of better economic prediction.In the meantime I am sharing it on the public domain and perhaps you will learn something too.I am never wrong what I say on this blog with astrology. There are laws that are not man made and these are some of them and no matter what you say cannot change the facts .
John Allen: I was educated in the ‘hard’ sciences and am as skeptical as they come. Yet I am not so arrogant as to suppose that there is not a GREAT deal that science does NOT yet understand, and I know for certain that there are a couple of very basic matters that most of the academic community have got completely wrong. I remember from history of science that 500 years ago electrical phenomena were considered in the realm of magic. I have no idea what knowledge we will have in 500 years time, but can be sure that many of those future discoveries would be considered magic today. A few years ago, I met a master dowser, who seemed to be privy to some quite extraordinary esoteric knowledge. (And I was stone-cold sober at the time.) There is a place for everything in this world and you claim that this blog is the place to reveal your insight. Unfortunately I don’t remember your previous moon wobble being supported by anything particularly extraordinary when your predicted time for it came to pass. Q.E.(N).D.
Agree with the main thrust of David’s article. Hence the 50 and over early retirement scheme (don’t wish to castigate this age group, but, in general, many in the upper echelons are in this age bracket). We’ll see regime change in the banks too, which has started, but has not gone deep enough. Make no mistake, this will happen, of that I’m convinced.
Caen,
No Castigation at all.
our Age group has failed.
Time to hand over to new blood.
Hopefully the next generation will be more demanding.
F
Maybe its time a little bit of sanity was brought to bear on the present Economic situation.Just to put things in context,we all know that a lot that has happened was the result of short term thinking on the part of the following 1… The Banks with an eye to profits,shareprice,Board re-election,Bonuses etc.o.k…..2.Developers ,mostly money,power,self advancement etc…o.k….3 Government, increased revenue streams for various pet projects,re-election,power,etc..o.k…Now lets view this situation in a mature manner and take a more long term view,and base our decisions on sounder Economic theory.The mistake everyone up to now has made is the difference between what Economists call the short run gains versus the long run gains.I’ll explain it this way .The Banks and Developers could not sustain the market in property that they created and their hopes of a soft landing were dashed by the credit crunch.Even though the figures point to the fact that this market had already started to correct itself i.e sales decreasing,new building reduced etc.Basically the Banks could not sustain their cashflows and the markets reacted as it usually does in terms of share price,cost of borrowing increase,lack of confidence etc.etc.So what usually happens is simple.The property market will move back and correct itself at its proper sustainable level re.building/price/employment level, after it has re-absorbed its excess inventory.The Company that was made up of the Banks and Developers will be taken over by a stronger and better resourced Company who will take a longer term view of this Property Buisness and exploit it’s gains over a longer and more sustainable timeframe.The Banks and Developers should piss off back to doing what they know they can sustain and make a living for themselves.Its clear to see they were way out of their depth trying to run a property market at that level given their underlying resources.This is where the Government backed Nama steps in and becomes the dominant player in the Irish property Market.NAMA in a roundabout way has the European Bank behind it ,to sustain it for various political and Financial reasons ( it will print how many Euro’s it needs to hold the Union together even if it causes a devaluation of the currency and others complain for Public Show).Ireland’s position together with that of Spain,Portugal,Greece,Eastern Europe et al will come back into line over time.Irelands Buisness cycle will be better aligned with that of Europe and we will have some extra Regulation thrown into the mix to placate our critics over our Property indulgences.Life will return to some sort of normality until some other Gobshites tries to inflate a bubble for their own short term gain and we will give off like hell,and after some posturing ,we will clean up the mess again .You know at the end of the day blowing bubbles is for children with little or no sense,it always falls back on us adults to clean up the mess.That’s life folk’s.That’s all it is.
The more sinister aspects of Orwell’s 1984 coupled with Dail Doublespeak seem to be upon us indeed David McWilliams
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/CIA-Officials-Will-Not-Face-Criminal-Charges-Over-Harsh-Interrogation-Techniques-Like-Waterboarding/Article/200904315263435?lpos=Home_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15263435_CIA_Officials_Will_Not_Face_Criminal_Charges_Over_Harsh_Interrogation_Techniques_Like_Waterboarding
Malcolm – I respect your comments and understand why and what you say but I want to give a ‘ new viewpoint’ as is said in TG4 ‘suil eile’ .I agree with the contributors on the site and their passion and ideals etc and what they have said and they continue to show great debate to the forum.My contribution is a parallel to the principle submissions here and not in the main as it were and to ignore it would not be a good policy neither to believe it entirely be a good policy either.It does offer a great insight and prevents the dangers of funnell vision arising in the mass substances of the debates.It is also something that means different things to everybody and for every subject under discussion thus the reason to learn the art of interpretation becomes a fine art in itself.
Logic is dead for now. If it was alive we would have solutions reached by now or even the idea of what the solution are .Unfortunately our problems are greater and the dark abyss of corruption has clouded all decisions and insights.All the economic tools are obsolete now .They have been relegated to an old school shed so that some day a museum will be opened and their philosophy explained to the future generations to come.
My statements are from a proven science and I have a lot of experience in this area so all I am doing is inviting anybody to learn and attempt the interpretations of what the heavens are saying .It can be fun and most importantly someone may learn and find their own solutions to what they were searching for.
Gaelic / Atlantean language is the mother tongue of astrology and the sentence structures and the english spoken by the Irish is distinctive to standard english as spoken in London etc .
In the previous wobble this site ‘had an experience’ and is on record at the time .Also , President Obam wobbled in his inaugeration statements on a very relevant date.
So, sit back and enjoy the experience of Alton Towers in a fast roller coaster and do remember ‘hold tight’.
Heh Heh.
Over to you Malcolm.
I couldn’t follow that meself.
But, as they say, you know it makes sense.
John Allen: “Logic is dead for now.” Okay, but when I hit my thumb with a hammer it still hurts. I’m not easily convinced, perhaps because you would say that I’m:
Jupiter, Saturn and New Moon all in Aries; Mercury in Aquarius; Sun and Venus in Pisces.
—make of that what you will.
Malcolm – Economic Logic is Dead ….ok
As you know when you feed into any good astrology site you can get a good reading by only giving your DOB location and time.
On the facts you have declared above I am only restricting my interpretation on what I remember you previously contributed on site to back up my revelation about ‘the face behind the mask’ as it were.This is not a personal interpretation of you because I dont know you.
Here we go :
Firstly , you are the first person to reveal so much personal details about yourself on this public domain by your revelations above and without been asked to .There is a reason for this .The real person behind all the mail we have read has a Big Heart and despite all the genius in you as we have learned, your heart rules your head.You are a very very caring person and you adore kids and animals and fixing blooded fingers etc as in a nurse or a doctor.You are also a dreamer ( this is in a positive way ) and you think of yourself as sitting beside a fountain under the sunshine and telling the world that your name is Antonio and you are seeking Cleopatra with a glass of wine, and a few sob stories is your mettel.The classics and music and philosophy are part of you too .There is a speed element in you ( in Aries ) thus reason why you gave so much so quickly as above and this also gives us to know that you have that competitive edge in you that is daring and risky and perhaps a wanderlust too .It is ( or was ) hard to keep you quiet and to stay at home or in one place .You are on the go burning your energy wherever you can and as often as you can .
In you aquarius you have mastered the art of diplomacy extremly well without or with little confrontation and this is obvious in your comments on the blog and that fine line you expouse is exemplary .
Advice :
Wash your feet more often and give up the Beer if you are on it .The beer makes you look ugly .
Your Shadow can be :
Michael O’Leary
Gordon Brown
John, can you do me?
Furrylugs, Joe Lee in discussing the Constitution pours water over your Article 45 remedy:
“However, he [de Valera] won less support for another social principle ‘that in what pertains to the control of credit the constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the people as a whole’. Article 45, ‘Directive principles of social policy’, was carefully contrived to appeal to instinct without damaging interests. Having enunciated radical sentiments about the primacy of the public good over private gain, it then explicitly declared that ‘the application of those principles… shall not be cognisable by any Court under any of the provisions of this Constitution’. The practical import of the piece of mummified flatulence concerning the control of the credit in the interest of ‘the welfare of the people as a whole’ can be deduced from Lord Glenavy’s cryptic comment on behalf of the banks three years later [1940]: ‘it [the Constitution] is not a document I am very familiar with’.”
Anthony Coughlan would probably have as good an idea as anyone as to whether anything can be achieved by this route. Interestingly Mary McAlese was among a large group of Trinity lawyers who wrote to the Irish Times in 86 expressing concerns about the constitutionality of the Single European Act (not exactly the same issue I grant you) – I wonder is she still game for a laugh?
Thanks Coldblow.
Very interesting.
I don’t know of Anthony Coughlan. I’ll have a google and revert.
“mummified flatulence”
This site mightn’t be able to sort out the nations ills but it’s certainly enhancing the English language.
Look it’s pretty simple, ad homineum attacks should be left at the door, tackle people on their oft time crazy comments like mental illness is down to immaturity solely but do not attack a person’s character.
Focus on the issues and the solutions at hand, that other stuff is classic divide and conquer stuff and impoverishes us all, and as we have seen some contributors have moved on.
Stay on message as they like to say in the US………………….
Interesting article from the lrish Times, think it is time we looked to ourselves for solutions because there ain’t no government cavalary coming over the hill
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2009/0417/1224244900452.html
I am still amazed that no major effort has been announced to assist the unemployed, no major funds, no special agency, no assistance of any real kind besides a dole payment, something you don’t get if you are self-employed, I am actually shocked but the inertia and by the lack of compassion in central government, so much so that I am considering standing for election, something I wouldn’t have dreamed of a month ago, things have to change, this is not the kind of country I want to leave to my sister’s kids, bloody disgrace, I urge others here to consider the same thing, if people are so moved to write lengthy pieces then they have the passion and smarts to take out their local FF/FG and dare I say it centerist Labour TD.
Time to put the house in order.
Sorry Malcom, just having a go, but I find that idea out of this universe…………….
G: Apologies for the drift in focus and I mostly agree, but I’m far enough along the lifeline to have a reasonable perspective on things.
Conclusion? —You couldn’t make it up; life is stranger than a kettle of fish! It’s teaching us to be adaptable.
John Allen’s reading would be judged by others to be better than average guesswork. He was spot on about one thing. I am rather ugly, but I don’t think it was the beer that did it.
Forthwith back to economic reality!
Absolutely G.
I’m just waiting for the door bell to start ringing.
Bring them on.
“so much so that I am considering standing for election, something I wouldn’t have dreamed of a month ago, things have to change, this is not the kind of country I want to leave to my sister’s kids, bloody disgrace”
I completely agree and I was thing on doing the same thing, standing for local election. Maybe we should get together and form our own political party and make Ireland to be a super power economy in finance, high tech and manufacturing.
I’ve been proposing that for a while, I even posted a 27 point action plan for government (it was a particularly vexing day :-)
Does anyone have any idea how you would go about setting up a political party? What are the legal requirements? Can you just call a press conference and announce it? (these are rapidly changing times after all) – how would you prevent that party from going the way of all the others (nepotism, old boys network, avarice and dirty tricks campaigns, not to mind investments in foreign student apartment blocks, I mean really is this a government or Fawlty Towers!?)
“how would you prevent that party from going the way of all the others (nepotism, old boys network, avarice and dirty tricks campaigns, not to mind investments in foreign student apartment blocks, I mean really is this a government or Fawlty Towers!?)”
The solution to the above lies in the culture of the party. If you set a culture of knowledge ie a doctor would be minister of Health, Head engineer minister of Transport, a really good economist being minister of Finance etc. Then not only do you have well qualified people but you are also setting a precedent for the future of Irish politics.
Can you put a link up to where your 27 point action plan is?
Malcolm – Objectivity is better viewed from outside the barrell .
The ESB has yesterday announced 3000 new jobs for all kinds of people -even new apprentices.Its only a year ago they said they were laying off most of their newly qualified electricians.!!
How things can change.
There should be a lottery for the places given that they are the highest paid tradesmen in the country and the taxpayer pays their wages in outrageous electricity prices.
Is this just another Goebbelslike piece of rubbish to try and counter the daily doom and gloom job loss announcements.?
ESB – the government decision reminds me that they are expousing the way French Politics works .Some years ago a French Civil Servant wrote a book about how little there was for staff to do in the French Civil Service and she lost her job as a result for revealing the truth .How many Irish Men does it take to fix a light bulb? This is the real question .
Not easy to fix light bulbs.
Easier change them.
Wobble
Right, so I just read this, a critique of the NAMA plan by several academics and economists. I have no idea how much clout this lot have as its absolutely not my field (but Deco you will be happy to see at least some NUIM names there :)
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0417/1224244902514.html
@David: So they seem to be suggesting that as well as buying loans at an (arbitrary) discount rate, they will also compensate the banks for the loss they take by selling the loans to NAMA in the first place in exchange for equity. So in theory at least the state/taxpayer could well end up coughing up a substantial amount if not all of the 80/90B in the long run, with no comeback, if the discount rate is set too low.
Since the one thing everybody agrees on is that they don’t know both the extent of the bad debts and what is now a reasonable market value for those debts, an honest bit of scenario planning would highlight this as a plausible risk.
The compensation bit is the part I missed before which means that the only person taking a haircut is the taxpayer, not the banks, not the banks shareholders. So even if you forget that the government is incompetent and forget about who will be running the thing, and assume the the banks will be completely honest about what goes in the NAMA skip, surely the risks are so high this thing is in no way whatsoever a good idea.
Or, is this effectively nationalisation by stealth?
I have to say, i think economists have a way of overcomplicating things, and pointing out flaws in every approach… I cant recall who wanted only one armed economists because its all “on the one hand…”
But when 20 of them come together to not just point out the flaws in something but to recommend an alternative, then to me thats worth taking seriously.
And I dont see how this course of action could personally enrich any of them which is my main criteria for evaluating public decisions these days…Its not to say they are right or the other guys are corrupt but to me theres an obvious conflict of interest in the team recommending the current approach. Nobody who has recently owned or been a director of any property related company should have any input into the running of a stage agency that will be charged with cleaning up the mess.
“Nationalising banks is the best option” is the headline… cant get simpler that that…. I know sub editors put up headlines but i think it reflects the article.
Liam – I seen that article in the IT – and I read it and went straight to this website to see what everyone was saying.
This is serious. Mind you there are missing academics also. Our own David McW is not on the list. Neither is Alan Ahearne – and he has a fairly good grasp of economic realities also. Neither is Moore McDowell, Brian Lucey, or Morgan Kelly. Now from what I can see these five are all very cautious and tend to double suss everything. And these economist tend to see the entire economy and not just the banks. These economists, plus Shane Ross have been vocal in telling us about the problems in the system, long before they became evident.
By the way I praise NUIM for the way they got themselves ahead of all their competitor universities, internationally, and got a partnership with Intel. It is obvious that NUIM are doing something right in relation to science/technology. NUIM are a public sector organization that competed like a private sector organization in one area, and they won. So this should be recognized, and more importantly emulated by the others. The chief of Intel had a lot of good things to say about NUIM. This is how we will resucue our communities. NUIM picked the local employer and are thereby serving the local community in North Kildare. I cannot comment on their Dept of Economics.
The academics raise interesting insights. And it is a plus to the nation that they have decided to publish their opinions. This is a serious issue – and their combined brains must have come up with some strong convictions that this is the correct thing to do.
When dealing with private sector banks, failure is an option. This is capitalist consequences for capitalist misadventure. And it is much cheaper than bailouts. At least when the size of the banks does not threaten the credit system. The failure of ANIB, INBS, EBS and possibly PTSB would not destroy the financial system. It would cause a sharp drop in property market. But when the prices crash, there would be a flurry of investment at rock bottom, and the floor would be fuond. The failure of AIB/BOI would – though this is avoidable – based on the sheer scale of the asset base of these banks, internationally and across many lines of business. AIB/BOI are critical because they affect business banking. The others do not – they are property centric though ILP has a non-property centred IL division.
After a decade of state management incompetence and private sector recklessness, I am wondering why the human capital in both are not being replaced. Out financial capital has been squandered because our human capital was substandard. Denying it is postponing the inevitable. We claim to be an educated country – but nobody could claim that the decionmaking in the D4 banks was in any the result of well-educated, balanced intellects. It was the results of loaded assumptions, careerism, pretence, social-obsession, recklessness, a fair amount of testosterone, plus delusions of grandeur.
The Irish concept of management has failed. And it needs to be replaced, immediately. We need something better. That is job number 1 on the road to recovery. Starting at the top – things need to be done better. David has provided the example of Israel as a country that is very good at the stewardship of it’s resources. In particular with respect to innovation. But it is clear that there are too many who loathe this approach – it does not fit with their business model.
We also need to keep our eye on the real economy – and not just the finance economy. This means the economy that produces the milk cartons, the pfizer-risers, the gadges, nuts & bolts etc.. And that means the cost base of the industrial base. The minimum wage is going to have to go – it was an Ahernian deal with ICTU anyway. The price of electricity will have to fall until it is the lowest in Europe. And if that means laying off the dossers in the ESB, then this has to happen. We have to fight for every factory in every town.
It means that the market rigging has to end. This nonsense of the Competition Authority investigating Kerry Foods and letting the banks hold shares in each other is absolutely stupid. The Competition Authority have done nothing about the markups in retailing. The profit margins need to be cut until we have normal profits in Irish retailing. This will reduce the cost of living and improve the scale of the producers.
And it means that the public sector is going to have to be rationalized, from the top down – less managers, less consultants, less offices, less nailbar jobs, etc.. Useless government ministers need to go. Government ministers who are drunk on the job need to be a thing of the past.
The BS has to end in this country. I think that in the local authorities it will end very soon. And we need to get very honest, everywhere, in every workplace.
Deco,
A small correction : Brian Lucey is on the list of 20.
It will be interesting to see if this culture change you speak of takes place. It needs to, but will it? The old school tie will fight tooth and nail maintain it’s control. They’ve never done a real day’s work, so the prospect of losing control of the purse-strings would be a right shock to the system.
But they’re good at the rugger right now, so that’s something to cheer about ; Royal Bankrupt Bank of Scotland Six Nations Champions.
Leinster to win in Croker with a bailout from the referee … ?
Paddy.
Right with you. A salient comment.
Whither Ireland now?
http://bocktherobber.com/2009/04/what-does-nama-stand-for
My personal favourite… Notional Assets Management Agency though Now All Money Appropriated would fit in with some of the theories here
gquin – do u want a preliminary assessment ?If so give me some info about you so I can determine what kind astro star you are.
What info do you want?
I was born in the month of January in 1973 and I’m an aquarius.
Can I have a bash too? I don’t believe in astrology at all but have an open mind. My birthday is September 1st 1972. Knock yourself out John; if you can’t be bothered that’s okay too. Adam.
wills – you are amazing I still cannot fathom you out.
Hello guys,
I always find this forum interesting, but I have to admit that sometimes I actually forget what the original article was about as I read the comments, and I am probably guilty of digressing as well. I will try to be brief and not digress too much. (I can see that I failed in that though)
1: Teachers: I have the utmost respect for teachers and several people in my family and friends are teachers and enjoy the work, although as my friend said discussing wages “I could have made more money if I had chosen something else, but I knew this when starting the education”. Personally I would find the work very hard and admire them. Teachers have long vacation and relatively short days in all countries, but keeping the attention of 30 pupils for several hours each day, really deservers
admiration and not begrudgery.
I suppose the reason that teachers in general tend to get a lot of attention, is that they have such a huge role in our life. So through personal experience it is easier for everyone to see through the obfuscation that usually comes with most things associated with most things in public life in Ireland. It is easy for us to have an opinion, and the wages are fairly transparent and well publicised. for other groups it is harder to get an undisputed wage figure, beacuse, things like overtime, bonuses, allowances, shift allowances, etc make it hard to come up with and undisputed figure.
But my friend in Norway was quite baffled when he saw the payscale and paygrades average salaries for teachers in Ireland. Irish teacher make 40-50% more than norwegian teachers gross. Considering the differences in taxes it would not be inconceivable that they make 60-80% more in take home pay. Please also keep in mind that Norway is a more expensive country than Ireland
There are probably comparable numbers in other occupations as well but this is harder to make a comparison on. In general many people are quite baffled by the fact that public sector workers on average make 50% more than private sector worker. Or 20% if considering education level etc… (I have met lots of highly educated people in low paying private sector work here in Ireland) The percentage does not really
matter, his surprise was that they made more money, whereas he would have been used to the oposite.
But the bottom line. I dont understand how ireland can afford/justify such wages in public sector. Norway is considered quite a wealthy country, mostly due to natural resources, but also due to a resonably good management and transparency in society. But due to the substanntial oil export it is not a complete fair comparison to compare it to Ireland, but it is very relevant to compare public sector wages between the countries. Norway could probably have afforded to have public sector which are
not on par with the rest of the world, since the money coming into the country is much more than what is going out due to the oil. So norway could have had an imaginary economy internally but that would have caused a huge wage spiral and everything would have been wasted.
Teachers have been unfortunate, due to some callers calling in on live radio, saying how tough it is too live on 63k or 40k. That is an insult to the huge amount of people on 20k in this country. It does not help anyone. Besides making bad decisions can get anyone in economic trouble, regardless of their income. I buy some shares every now and then, but I have never considered leveraged by a factor of 20, because I would find it too risky, but buying a property in bulgaria with borrowed money is really the same as taking highly leveraged bet, and that was clear to everyone,
because they were certainly aware of the potential upside of their 5k investment, borrowing 95k and investing 5k of own money.
But I suppose if the government is spending 55bill and making 30bill, things will have to naturally sort themselves out, just as everyone else has to adjust their spending after our income dropped after the budget.
But as my friend said. He was hoping for a bit more of this recession. He was in a stable job (teacher), with a mortgage and prices dropping, so things were good for his family
2: Something else I thought about when reading the article about Cowen and friends who were investing in UK property. Some of his coinvestors included business men such as a pharmacist and supermarket owner. We are all going to have to pay for their investment, first through the NAMa, but more importantly through increased prices in the the supermarket and the pharmacy. Not sure how many business owners who have invested in property, but I suspect that there would be quite a few, I touched on this in another post, where the potential/imaginary returns in property were so large which tempted everybody with a bit of capital into property, and I would guess that businessmen would go into this. But they are going to get their money back somehow, and that would be through their customers, and when I think about this way, it starts
to make sense why for a long time prices have been much more expensive across the border. Its not only wages, general costs, island economy etc… Maybe irish businesses had higher costs in maintaining small properties portfolios? As Deco wrote, the new jobs and quite good salaries in ESB is being paid for by everyone through the cost of electricity. Would the ESB traditionally have had a problem in
recruiting people, are they competing with many other industries in attracting and retaining a very limited pool of specialized workers. That could explain the salaries, but if that was the case you would think that ESB would have very good internal training and upskilling programs to adress this problem.
3: I am starting to wonder that my Bad state theory actually is starting to have some merit. Is that what they are planning for? I will have to think more about this. The government has already taken respsonsibilty of all debts. They are now in the process of moving all property based assets into state ownership. The way I am thinking is that if a bank or a business goes out of business, the creditors knows that the business is out of business and that they need to liquidate assets and try and salvage whatever they can. When it comes to a country things are slightly different.
They can get in serious financial problems, but they are never going to stop functioning as a going concern. So it will continue generating income. So in that sense they are not going to be liquidated and stop production
The government is currently guaranteeing all the banks debt through the government guarantee, which is kind of like guranteeing the debts based on the future income of the coutnry. It is almost like an unborn government bond.
they are going to finance the purchase of the property assets through borrowing money, through giving the banks government bonds. These assets are probably not generating any income, and the only way they can generate income is by increasing assets value, but in which case there has to be buyers (and besides, the government is really paying full price anyway, as any discount they get is going to tear a whole in the balance sheets which will have to be filled by the banks.
But Ireland is now quickly generating government debts at multiples of government incomen (30 bill) And if things go bad, more liabilities lands on the government. So Ireland could end up in the bad state scenario. If that happens there is likely to be some shakeup in the government spending and income, by ECB or IMF but this would have had to happen anyway, so no major harm done there. They will most likely ask the
government to sell state assett such as semi-state companies etc (IMF would probably do this, but I think Europe might have a different attitude) but there will not be a liquidation of assets, so there is a good chance that the governments newly acquired property portfolio would stay on government hands. Selling it at 5 cent pr Euro might not be a good longterm solution, and there might be special considerations in this
case as all property related loans are in this portfolio, so it would be harsh by even IMF standards to force a country to sell its land, and with the irish tradition of legal wrangling it would be too much effort to try and extract certain parts of the government portfolio. So the government gets to keep its land. (they could even set up national trust, create national parks or other things, because I suppose government bonds which financed the purchase does not have to be securitized against anything else that the future earnings of a country anyway, so already now the irish land banks and devlopments are safe as soon as they go into NAMA?)
Once the adjustment phase is over, which we have to do anyway. IMF/ECB might have to look at the level of government debt and realize that the level of debt is basically too much for the nation to pay back without crippling the economy for generations.
Since a country is considered a going concern under almost any circumstance, creditors would be more willing to accept a writedown of the debt, because they can feel fairly confident of getting it back, even if it is only 60 or 70% of the face value. While still keeping the assets and the potential upside of the assets So maybe what the government is doing is to bundle up all the debts of the country (private and public) into one big loan (similar to the advice that delinquent spenders get as advise on these I am shopaholic, help me programs)
I am starting to think that the bad state solution (putting all loans into the
government) could be a good idea on several levels.
- possibility of renegotating all loans with an internation arbiter, without the fear of liquidation and firesale. So the government gets to keep assets, the loans are reduced (maybe to a level of realistic prices, as creditors would have had to sell distressed assets, if they insisted on getting their money back, so they might be happy in receiving some money between distressed value and realistic value, meaning that Ireland would could have reduced the totalt debt burden as well as increased the chance of an upside
- bigger chance of creating Irelands own currency and devaluing. the devaluing would have been a problem as I see it since Ireland, the banks and businesses own a lot of money in euro which. So the introduction of a new currency would be linked to the euro anyway due to the huge amount of debt in euro.
WB Pera.
We lost HuffnpuffPolly and it seemed like it was all a man thing here. And it’s not at all.
Well thought out comment above.
“Since a country is considered a going concern under almost any circumstance,”
We’re getting ripped by all the ratings agencys.
The big problem they have is that they dont believe we have the political nous to survive.
pera;
read through post,. brilliantly rolled out in form and structure.
Can i suggest “countries as going concerns” is a significant point,.
As you are probably aware, Rep of Irelands system of political-economy is
a credit system. Most other systems in europe are monetarist systems.
Now you pointing toward rep. ireland as a going concern is crucial here.
The notion of a going concern translates back to ‘monetarist system’. So, Irelands CRedit system is usurped by a ‘going concern’
ideology stuck onto it, a bit like,.. the union jack been stuck over
the map of Ireland hiding our constitutional system under montarism. Bravo , Pera
@john-allen;
I was watching docu on c.s lewis last night, bbc1, 10.35, ‘planet narnia’,.. fantastic stuff,..narnia apparently is fairytale code on
7 moons middle age/ christian ethos,.. and i kept mulling on your
good self and your posts and eureka your posts made sense,.
maybe same will happen your side in regards my posts.
@bloggers;
NAMA is a government REPO man for the bankers.
It will minimize down through its muscle power an epidemic of bankruptcy filings and deter regular ‘joe bloggs debt customer’
deciding on bankruptcy to jettison negative equity trap and exit
debt obligation as it stands.
An epidemic of debt customers demanding debt re-scheduling or
write down or wipe out is next, banks know people are watching
and are thinking, hang on a second, if the banks can cast of their
bad debts why cant i,.. and it is all a matter of how this fever
takes hold on the minds and imaginations of the debt
customers that will determine how this nightmare for the banks
will pan out.
I agree with Wills.
The “hand back the keys and walk away ” brigade have not yet registered.
They are the next elephant to surface from the quagmire.
I know some of them who are still in shock at having no job or income except the dole to live on and pay a mortgage of 1000 Euros a month.
The banks will probably ignore this problem for the moment.However within the next two years the evictions will surely begin.
By then Fianna Fail will likely be full directors/owners/caretakers of fully nationalized banks and evicting citizens who (in theory at least) own the institutions which are evicting them.!!
What a farce!
Thats Socialism for you.
At least under Capitalism the banks would fail and if no other bank buys the debt and the government is also unwilling to buy then the loan disappears.
@gquinn
I can email it to you as it has grown to 49 point programme for government…………as one FF TD (recently elected in 2007) put it to me one day when I pointed out that he hadn’t canvassed a disadvantaged area (he knew there would be more queries, expected results and few votes), you’re a bit of a lefty are ye?
I should have packed my bags and left Ireland then as I was offered a position abroad with the main international organisation for development/aid etc, but I didn’t – I am scratching my head now about it…………………and people say God works in mysterious ways, I have myself perplexed…………
Yes, if you can email it go glen.quinn@quinnsoft.net
Thanks G.
I left Ireland in 2005 because I got very afraid at which way the economy was going and the warning sign to me is always, when they start giving away free money (100 – 120% mortgages) then get out quick. Im still in the UK but I would like to come back to Ireland after all it is home.
I must be some sort of masochist because I came home in 2004 and couldn’t believe what was going on.
will do
@tirnanog33
“I know some of them who are still in shock at having no job or income except the dole to live on and pay a mortgage of 1000 Euros a month”
could you expand on this a bit, I am interested in learning more, they are the people, across all spectrums of society, where change may come, it just depends on the numbers, sufficient numbers coupled with the unemployed may lead to some radical transformation of the body politic and societal structures, not to mind financial system.
I always found it curious that Permanent TSB would use an American actor who normally played a hit man or member of the mafia in their advertising.
Other banks (we know who they are) may use real enforcers in the not too distant future, again the cyclical irony of the tax payer bailing out the banks only for the ‘new’ banks to go after people’s asses and take the roof away from children, well that is something I would be prepered to fight against.
There was a report about loan sharks on RTE radio, but I’ll be honest itts hard to differentiate any of those financial tricksters from each other these days!!!
G – That ad used to fill me with scepticism towards bankers – patronising in the extreme. There was I think a shower in the background. When I seen the shower going on in that ad – an interesting quote from Winston Churchill always came to my mind “A banker is a fellow who will offer an umbrella on a fine day, and want it back when it is raining”. { I don’t know if that was what the marketing gurus had in mind when they were trying to brainwash us- obviously none of them ever read that quote and made the link :)))) }.
Interesting insight concerning the Mafia ‘soldier’. If there were not enough reasons to be sceptical about some knowitall joker telling us that PTSB “has lots to lend”. That turned out to be another false statement – they had nothing to lend – they had to borrow it from abroad. Though we can tell that the advertising did work very well with resepct to Anglo last September – Anglo asked for a massive loan as they clearly believed there was “lots to lend” in PTSB…..
I know of a man in the security business and he gets called to do car reposessions. One night a bouncer, the next morning a repo man, the next day doing security in Finglas. You are surprisingly accurate.
“Other banks (we know who they are) may use real enforcers in the not too distant future,”
Let them knock on my door.
They’ll get a belt of a griffaun.
@tirnanog33;
much obliged..!
gquin – I think you should follow your dreams. You have that cute cunning hoorism in you and you the secrecy to keep out of trouble . As I said in the wobble I could add your name next to Peter Bacon so this wobble is pushing you on at present and from sunday your motivation will not cease.
Yep, John, you got me to a tee. Thats me alright. :-)
World of Adam ( and all his Eve’s )
Adamabyss : Ok Mr Logic you know what I mean . Where is your mittens where you add a penny to a shivering prayer as in Oliver hmmmm. You have that thin sometimes streaky look and porcelain chin bone looks and Bertie is a life shadow of you . You must be happy that you are getting a free reading from me hmmm .
I could call you Mr Machine too because you never leave them alone . What about Mr Perfect and all those broken hearts you left down abandoned in off flung islands and in paradise…so many …. your nasty . Put away your vanity mirror maybe it’s time to look at some one else.
You are a very very creative person making something in a material sense. You are very hard to please and if you are not yet married I don’t think you are in a rush about it. Mind your intestines and the kind of food you eat otherwise you know what happens….
Thanks a lot John. I appreciate your time and effort and it was pretty close to the mark as well.
John Allen – I have not commented on any of your wobbles.
But, where was the sharp scalpel that was able to scrape away the filth in the Irish banks and display individual who could cut the filth from the system with a sharp mind. You were a reformer many “moons” ago. Your intellect is needed to pull this abomination apart and to bring Ireland clean, for the benefit of her citizens. Between them wobbles of course.
Yes, authority will beat you down and make you feel like you are sub-normal because they want to preserve their ill-gotten gains and their ill-deserved power. But you must preserve the inner balance, and then be strong, and repulse. Ireland has invested with corruption, and practices that need to be eliminated. The proud must be humbled, and the humble must come to the fore and direct everything henceforth. Your time has come to rise to greater analytical insights. You were a bank insider – so was Shane Ross – and Shane Ross held his balance – and Senator Ross is our hero now – and people stand aside for him, and let him pass in traffic, and the ordinary folk honour him. And the scoundrels hide from the ordinary folk. John Allen – you can ‘wobble’ but we need you to ‘wobble’them scoundrels out it also :))) And we know that you can. Inside all of us there is something inherently good, and it is only ever held down by fear. And you followed that greatness, until authority hammered fear into you.
But fear – it is only a virtual concept. That is all. A virtualization of reality. Beyond fear, is reality.
@Deco.,,
Try watch docu on bbc1, last night 10.35, on new book
on c.s lewis ‘planet narnia’,. Serious intelligence at work here
and brilliant insight into JohnAllens posts, i kid you not.
Wills: Thank you for that link. I have just watched it through on BBC iPlayer
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00jz2qp/The_Narnia_Code/
The programme certainly helps us to understand the rationale behind some posts here that I previously found obscure. Michael Ward’s explanation seems both honest and plausible within its own terms of reference. Even his name has esoteric connotations Archangel Michael slew the Dragon (?of materialism?) and Ward of course came from the Irish bard or shennachie. A nice and tidy foundation for a new cult.
I don’t know the Narnia books at all, but the general ambience of the programme seems to support our common plea for conscientious striving towards a fairer society as Deco so eloquently expresses below, but implies that we are somewhat handicapped by cruel fate.
Like Lewis, I have a flexible mind and am willing to accede that there are more things than are dreamt of in Heaven and Earth.—However the Devil is in the detail and the Road to Hell is paved with Good Intentions. In Ward’s view, if Fate intervenes we are helpless to struggle. His theory undermines the entire concept of Free Will.
Economic catastrophes are not caused by fate, but by bad leaders, who fail to take the most basic precautions against economic adversity.
It suits leaders like Blair and Bush to encourage the belief that they achieved their eminence through the benign influence of fate and that it is futile to struggle against it. They then proceed to switch off their intellect and leave it to fate to run the country. We are now reaping the consequences of this widespread attitude at every level in society.
In my opinion the fully committed individual can make a significant difference, but he or she has to make terrible sacrifices to achieve their goal.
Most people wisely avoid having to make this choice and walk blindly into whatever fate holds for them.
In this blog there are some who are ruled by fate and some who believe they can make a difference. Each must ask ourselves where we stand on this issue.
Here here. Just say ‘no’ to faith-based economics.
Malcolm;
Can i say brilliant read there in your post, in my humble estimations for
better or for worse,. (preferably for the better, i live in hope).
Much obliged on posting link, i player link, other posters may tune into it
and find clarity on John’s postings to which i must concede i find very enriching despite my bafflement..!!!!
Can i be so bold and romp in on one or two of ideas posed in post,..
I do believe all are doomed to errors of judgement, overlooks and mistakes from the get-go. This i think is our hell on earth, this dillemma, born into
a maze lets say., like a cosmic pratt fall joke.
and we are doomed to a misery of a kind and from here put into action
free will.,, so.., free will is activated by embarking on a journey out of the maze. Most hang back in the maze and so free will remains on mute.,
Fate intervening, i think, is part and parcel of the cosmic joke,. so for example,..
if one chooses to exit maze, one then opens up fate and intervention into
the journey which assists one in applying free choice, like a clue left,..
but the decision is always down to one will in action making the choice.
anyhows back to the economics…..
Deco : thanks Deco I always love your comments and I could not do what you are best to do .
But John – I want you to do what I do, and I want you to do it better than I.
Your fight with the banks in the 1990s inspires me. You did not have websites like this to banter with like minded individuals. You were a hero against the system, on your own “rage against the machine” as they say. You exposed their crookedness. And you exposed the crookedness of the authorities.
But we have the technology now to win – to reform the system – to unite the minds. We have the internet.
Tell your friends. Tell those whom your colleagues in your local, at the canteen at work, those you meet on the petrol station in the Midlands when you are driving to the West, the old farmers and public sector workers in the pubs in the West when you get there. Let people join along. Building the intellectual basis that will change argument. Because a conversation does not end when you walk out the pub in Sneem or Belmullet and head back home. Everyone can get stuck in. There are a lot of honest decent people in Ireland, and they just need some hope, and they will continue their efforts in reforming Ireland. The effort to clean up Ireland after Haughey influenced matters continues. It is our fight for our country. It does not mean killing or bombing. It does not mean wearing the green jersey or being a drunkard on a continental city. Now, it means what Robert Emmet always intended it to mean – a country where people stand up and be counted. We are the generation that must fulfill Emmet’s dream. We must join the nations of this earth, and behave less arrogantly and with respect towards ourselves and others.
It means revealing the truth and making a fairer society-not by bureacracy, but by freedom and the act of knowing conscientuous individual. It is that simple. One new step every day. Reading, learning, working, striving, saving, and acting and communicating guided by our conscience. Until that conscience becomes our hallmark.
You were guided by that conscience once. When the rest of us were blinded by our own innocence as to what was really going on. And we want you to gently slip your conscience into what is happening. To make what is happening on this board stronger. Because we will need you to encourage us and make us stronger. We are together because we seen David’s television series and it resonated with our own common sense. And he was speaking for us. And he has given us this forum to progress Ireland intellectually.
Truth.
This is Ireland On The Wobble
http://mail.live.com/default.aspx?wa=wsignin1.0
@john;
i followed the link, whats the wobble connection john…?!
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0417/breaking72.htm
Cowen clearly wants to not waste one cent of the taxpayers money on INBS. Unfortunately he is in a real bind. Unfortunately INBS are covered by the Government Banking Gaurantee. Though, it would be beneficial to the taxpayer if we could kick them out on a technicality like the Anglo loan or the pension that Fingers has lined up for himself. Or the fact that Little Fingers was plugging for deposits on the back of the government gaurantee. But effectively Cowen has indicated that INBS are for sale. They cannot continue in their current form, and the government will not take them over. They could be a real headache for NAMA.
Morgan Kelly was right that INBS could find itself becomming the next ANIB very soon. I just wonder what exactly the options are facing the government. And how could they let INBS fail without any cost to the taxpayer.
One option would be to liquidate INBS, and allow ANIB to takeover the Irish “assets” at a discount. The other banks would be compelled to stand aside. The problem here is that the “assets” are 80% owned by developers. And developers are going to the wall.
This is getting ugly, because the state has underwritten these banks and we have found out since that deal, that the banks are all in very different shape now to what they were then. The lack of transparency has caused the problem. And the only way out is in the real economy.
2009 – a year when being patriotic means working hard, and hopefully reforming the system. And Ireland needs a new modern concept of management – like David was telling us about from the Israel tech sector, or the Swedish banks. We need to fix the human factor. We need to clean up the malpractices. Funny enough, that is exactly what international investors want us to do also !!!
@Deco;
LOve the way INBS turned these cards over today.!!!
Reckon they are in line for NAMA Repo man coming to collect,.
free up the toxic waste and set them free to blow up another
POnzi property bubble to fleece the serfs.
@bloggers,..
HeAd chief of IMF is doing the round on ‘meeja’ last 48 hours.
His Mantra for the serfs…”banks must be cleaned for economy
to get going again, otherwise nothing will get fixed”,. Now can i suggest the following.
Here is one guy, and he is speaking to camera across the tv landscape
telling us all, the world economy, in one go, on the news, we all
need to heed his advice and shut up and go with whatever your
gov is doing to clean the banks and sit the fu$k down and let
the banks be cleaned cos this is the only way to have an economy.
Now is it just me or does this stink to high heaven of neo-fascism
Folks, spent a week in the Kingdom – loved it. Have now spent most of this evening catching up and reading all that you have written.
I think that I am in awe, but I’m not sure, because I don’t “do” awe.
Coffee in the Mills in Ballyvourney on Monday last, comtemplating my navel, I decided that I am lucky to know about this site and to be learning as much as I am from so many of you.
Where it will lead, I cannot yet tell. But there are, certainly, possibilities – we decide.
Hmm. Mills.
yep
@tim,.
Good to have you back tim,..
Been defending the teachers a little bit, must watch my animated
postings though,. may have startled a new poster huffnpuff,
anyhows…, the ‘ol teachers are under the meeja kosh,..
wills, just keep at it and don’t let anyone steer you off course.
gquin – seriously may I add :
1 Watch your ankle ….. remember what happened the last time ; and
2 Travel into the countryside and find a donkey and rub it .It has magic energy for you.
You are a goer but always one step back to avoid the limelight and you are a very social person going to sports gatherings frequently or equivalent.
Mind the Wobble this one is changing you now from Sunday.
What is this stuff you have been going on about?
Deco ; thanks again .We on this site are Sentient Men/ Women and those we elect to govern are not. That is the difference .
I remember I went to make a claim with the Criminal Injuries Tribunal for reporting fraud committed by a bank .I was told that fraud was not covered.A year later and after learning how to make such a claim I approached them again and this time they considered and told me it was covered .So I made my claim and backed with evidence from the gardai I believed I had a good case until they told me I was making my claim too late. Reluctantly , I made them hear it only to find out eventually that I had made the case too late and they would not take any responsibility for misguiding my original application.
On another case in Denmark I had the insight into a major Bank Fraud and when I was making a case against The Auditors with their Institute they demanded all my correspondence in Danish .I did and they fuzzed the whole plot .I gave up afterwards . Try reading ‘Wissum Sagen’ it’s in Danish …. and this is James Bond who got them all including an Israeli Jewish Banker convicted eventually after a whole contingent of lawyers , police and prosecutors arrived into Ireland from Copenhagen to request my assistance and I obliged .
There is no culture of awareness into Ethical Banking Compliance .
John Allen, “Ethical Banking Compliance” = incongruity.
ALLEN,
You’re something else.
All,
OK, G & co want to censor me. Fine. I’ll make it easier for you and leave like huff (and b before). I’m weary from defending free speech here and almost equally weary of Ireland’s politicians.
Yes, this is an economics forum. That’s fine. But surely its the impact of economics on society which is the crucial aspect to it. That’s what I was interested in, how taxpayers money is spent, how revenue is/should be raised etc…..
Tim, my comments about teaching were driven by seeking an answer to a simple question which wasn’t forthcoming, which involved Robert suggesting I was playing with myself. Its exasperating. Its not an attack on you.
Apologies for not studying economics. David McWilliams made it interesting to me, before that I would have steered well clear of it. Thanks David. I’ll continue to read your articles.
Colin_in_exile, No-one should be censored. I often find that people disagree with me. When they do, I must re-think and either confirm or change my opinion.
As the saying goes, with the 1st ammendment to the US contitution: “The thing about the freedom of speech is this: I may not like what you say, but I will defend your right to say it.”
I couldn’t resist.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/kevin-myers/teachers-are-paid-too-much-for-working-seven-months-a-year-1711798.html
junk
Kevin Myers,
Wonder what he earns a week.
Anyone with a fridge knows how far 800 yo yo’s goes if you’re trying to have any type of life.
Sound . Yeah. Solid. Fine. Loads of time off.
Try it for a day, see how you get on.
Dead easy this teaching. They all sit there and soak it up deferentially.
Me arse.
@ colin_in_exille
an obvious over reaction, if you had read my comments and understood i was referring to inappropriate attacks of a personal nature.
There’s enough dramatics in the Dail and elsewhere without this site adding to it. I am no Big Brother, quite the contrary in fact!
Apres Irlande …..et La France?
Lire ici:
http://www.lexpansion.com/economie/actualite-economique/l-irlande-peut-dire-adieu-au-triple-a-et-la-france_179449.html?XTOR=EPR-175
Lepracauns – Allow me tell you a story at this late hour to lighten the night air as it were .In Oct 2004 I was returning from Killarney from a bank holiday week end on a monday with my family and a nice . Along the way under light showers I said to my wife lets detour to a Mc Elligotts Garage that I think ( wishfully ) they have a beautiful car there .My wife says do you see it jokingly and I said I think there is one there you would like so we arrived at the garage and hoky joe there it was beaming .We continued on our journey and the showers died off and there was a large rainbow and along the road we saw one end in one field on our left and the other on our right and I said there must be lepracauns nearby with a crock of gold , keep our eyes open . Soon ,each end of the rainbow became closer and closer on each side until eventually it covered the front dashboard of the car I was driving .We were all stunned in silence .So I said ok lads this is captain of chitty chitty bang bang we are ready for take off hold tight and there was an eery feeling around us at that moment till it all disappeared as fast as it appeared . .
There was total silence and a numbness for a full twenty minutes afterwards . Then I said to my wife there must be a message in that we should buy that car . Anyway to make a long story short ( kerry speaking ) we collected the car that following saturday …. only to find immediately after full payment of the monies that the registration of the car was my date of birth.
cool stuff, always the magical x-factor in life
Leapreachauns,
Or Leath preachauns.
Half crows.
@John, you’re priceless.
I’ll have whatever he’s having.
Liam,
Apparently you have to learn Atlantean and do a circuit of Dun Aengus on the spaceship.
Before you start, I’m just the messenger.
When you’ve achieved that apprenticeship level, then you get to ride Neidin.
Wisdom then decends and you get to spot the Wobble.
It’s catching you know.
F out and on the side..
John Allen: I just came across this image, which I trust you will not consider an inappropriate comment on your extraordinary experience.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/37522499@N02/3451932791/
Folks, Christy Moore has it.
Saw him on LL tonight – bit of a “Brendan Gleeson moment”.
Good God we’re rightly humped if they’re rolling out Christy.
Leadership ;
Economics cannot be discussed without a deeper insight into the Leaders around us .Lets look outside our island and try to determine the trend from a different angle ( suil eile).
My Revelations :
Hermet Kohl
Gorbechev
Gordon Brown
All the above have the same sun signs and that is Pisces and in their lives what they took over they lost or saw changes from what it was to something else.They lost the plot , their dreams were somewhere else Logic is not part of their forte in their real life.For HK it was the unification and economic collapse subsequently , for G it was the fall of communism and the arrival of capitalism in disguise ( whatever), and for GB we are seeing the fall of Britain’s Currency / Banking/ and maybe Sovereignity etc .All the above are not and never were Leaders instead they were molly coddled into power to enable someone else escape and get a new life.They were sitting ducks for The Estate.Of course they had other qualities but that is a different matter to leadership.
Today we have arriving in UK Cameron with the sitting Queen – both are a perfect match and a Prince and a Princess in duality ( Taurus’s) with a single mind and a return to the original status quo when Blair was in office .This is good news for us when it does happen because we live next door .Unless and until we have a proper leader in The State we will lean in their direction for hope then and thats for sure.
Lets look back at Germany again and what we have there today – Angela Merkel .Well she is a formidable safe pair of hands ( Cancer ) and no doubt holds the strings to our coffers at the moment .She is liken to ‘The Devil Wears Prada ‘ as in Myrll Streep .She is a NICE bully in the sense she gets what she wants .She will smile into your face as she gives you an injection to make you better ..( .ouch).She will not relinquish the Euro until the last moment and will stick out to the bitter end.So the question is when is the bitter end !She is best positioned to see Europe as a family and if she fails no one else could have made it happen better than her.She is the best hope we have for the survival of EU and Euro.She is definately Mother Europe. So watch American Trash coming our way t Europe ,it’s next toxity level determines the final outcome.
Now lets have a look at France – Sarkozy .To be honest he is a good guy and tries to make changes with his stubborn diplomacy – bling bling bling ( aquarius ) and constantly fighting his amazing network of contacts to seek a way forward .He is a stubborn fighter and never never gives up either way right or wrong.He failed to change Ireland and immediately turned his back on us because he has written us off because he does not like what he sees here and he is right .At least for the moment.
Lets look at home .Already my stomach starts to feel the pain to even think of what I am seeing .Words cannot discribe it .
Lets begin with the good news :
Ian Paisley ( Aries – ( tongues of fire ) a true leader )
Gerry Adams ( Libra – Air – a true diplomat )
Berti Ahearn ( Virgo – earth – a perfect carpet weaver that makes a beautiful creation )
Tony Blair ( taurus – earth – a prince that gave a sense of royality and importance to the occassion and knitted extremely well with the products of berti while the farmer( Blair ) reaped them with his hands to endorse them as good products ) for the market .
Moving along to Today ( ouch )
Cowen – a capricorn – he is an extreme worryier and his material assets are embroiled in the mess and this contaminates him .He would have made a good leader had he tried but he tripped along the way and now wears too many hats not knowing his left leg from his right leg.His diet is a major problem and does effect his decision making now .
Bloated Boyface Finance Man – he is a gemini ( air )- and is the MOST dangerous man in the country that I can define at the top today .He is a Broker and by definition a qualified Slave Trader that only the best can be .He is manipulative and cunning and was put to the job ‘to cronyise the solution’ to our banks .He is the first named Slave Trader in our written history .Even Cromwell was not a slave trader and thats a different story .He is the greatest fear we all have NOW .
John Allen: As I explained in more detail above, ‘In this blog there are some who are ruled by fate and some who believe they can make a difference. Each must ask ourselves where we stand on this issue.’
I detected an even more deeply hidden Masonic dimension in Michael Ward’s programme and wondered whether association with that cult has influenced your contributions in any way? Clearly, there is a strong masonic influence on the top leadership in the UK, and I have encountered it at high levels in several other countries.
I am not suggesting that there is anything inherently wrong with membership of that brotherhood and I know from personal experience that Masons consider themselves to be honourable men; however they tend to be influenced by a fatalistic attitude to the passage of events. This can be clearly detected in the response to the present economic crisis by the G20 leadership. —”It was all caused by Global events that were unforeseen, and about which we could do nothing.”
John, as you have a lot to say on this blog, I think we deserve to be told where you stand on the Masonic issue. Unless we recognize the role of that dimension in Irish politics, and the fatalistic attitude to events it engenders, we will be powerless to change things for the better.
John Allen:
“Berti Ahearn ( Virgo – earth – a perfect carpet weaver that makes a beautiful creation )”
You mean: “Carpetbagger”
(The term carpetbaggers was used to describe the white northern Republican politicians who came South, arriving with their travel carpetbags. Southerners considered them ready to loot and plunder the defeated South)
Ahern & the bankers, and the builders qualify under this description,as our very own “celtic carpetbaggers”
Malcolm – I am not a member of any such cult or any for that matter and what I expouse is purely my own personal thoughts and reasons no more and no less and I try to back it where ever I can .I do not associate with anyone for any reason full stop.For me Economics in the traditional sense has out lived itself and my concern about Ireland now is grave from the position I see matters as they are and the current proxy rulers that deceive us daily .People that know me see me as just an ordinary guy that wants to help wherever I can and this astrology divination has been great entertainment for many that have met me in my travels.I am in part a philosopher and thus the reason I wrote Da Wu Yu Code .I tried to emulate Victor Hugo as a promise to a friend of mine .
John Allen: Thanks for he quick response— It’s good to have that aspect clarified.
Never a week goes by in this blog but someone complains about ‘cronyism’ in Irish politics, but I don’t remember anyone mentioning the Masonic dimension before. It would be good to nail that down and dispose of it, if anyone has any evidence.
john;
can i add,.. economics tool box could do with a new tool alongside.
Malcolm – I only say what I see and at that I shoot from the hip it’s best medicine.
john;
here, here.
p.s john, what is a moon wobble..?
Leadership :
May I add to the above ‘De Clerk’ a pisces and poor leader.
Moon Wobble :
Google it and you will see .
Two comments.
1) The Bond Market. I watched Prof Fergusson’s documentary on the History of Finance a few months ago. And it provided some excellent insights. If I had the time, I would buy/read the book – but I have a list of books that I must read. And we are getting into the warm time of the year.
But – yes the bond market. Interest rates are supressed/set by the central banks. This is to liquify the banks with credit. We do not know how well this is working – but banks are still failing – because their loans are failing – and low interest rates are a tactic to prevent more loans failing. Well, this is all fine as long as creit remains available at the current cost. But what if is suddenly seizes up. Which brings me to the next point. China.
China has been instrumental in keeping the bond market afloat. And there was an equation that China and the US operated. The US had a trade deficit (which improvrished the US but the US media ignored it) and China had a bond market deficit. But China is now diverting it’s resources from investing in bonds(virtual assets) to copper, iron ore, etc. (real assets). And China will convert these assets into cities, and infrastructure for it’s population. Which is intelligent. And this means that the continual supply of investment funds for the US Treasury purchasing (The Bond Market) will dwindle. The fall in the Chinese trade surplus will also dwindle.
I can see this as a possibility.
If this happens we are all in serious trouble. But in case, the Chinese have to think about the domestic situation. And this means providing the means for China’s workforce to be redeployed in such a manner to keep China moving forward. We are just observers as such.
And this begs the question of how Obama will fund a stimulus package/infrastructure build for the next four years. Eisenhower funded it through US trade surpluses, low interest rates, taxation on an increasing economy, and the bond market. But Obama only has low interest rates for stability. And if the bond market gets edgy – then low interest rates disappear. I do not know if this is a complete theory – but I think you can get the picture.
2) The media are really fascinated by Cowen, his pals and the apartments in Leeds. I really do not care. Cowen is like many other people who decided to invest in foreign property. [ Maybe he knew Irish property was overvalued.] But the details are irrelevant. The point is that Cowen got stung. His judgement in finance was not great. Still, it is better than the clowns who went to Bulgaria, Budapest, South Spain, etc… At least he had a regular market figured out. Compared to the shenannagins involving the debts of the Auctioneer-Councillor in Edenderry, the Leeds investment flop is a minor side issue. Cowen’s investment in Leeds is not a scandal. The newspapers making fun of him is excessive – he has to run the country – and this is his private business. The newspapers were much softer on Ahern – and Ahern was a much more untrustworthy and shifty character.
But I am seriously concerned about his financial judgement in relation to property, and his propensity to take advice from “property advisors”. Is the same thing happening in relation to banking. Are crooked liars providing Cowen with statistics on their banks, that do not add up and which are landing the taxpayer in the soup. Is the same blindspot in Cowen’s judgement liable to have us caught again to lying bankers like happened with Anglo, and which appears to be happening with INBS.
Eddie Hobbs was giving better advice on the radio every other week on property in the UK.
I wish Cowen would also listen to Shane Ross – at least that way the interest of the people would not be squandered on dodgy optimistic projections from our major banks. Basically, I am concerned that Cowen might believe the bankers – and decide on state policy on this basis. This is a disaster for us all.
The “Broederbond” between Fianna Fail & developers has now reached its climax.It is truly a magnificent climax.
Hooked on the heroin of soaring property prices,the obscenely rich and successful “big fish” developer friends of the party were followed by a myriad of smaller fish/syndicates, who traversed the country buying building sites from happy farmers in Leitrim,Donegal,Cavan & God knows what other God forsaken rainswept part of Ireland.Madness.
Many of these sites were on boglands which were expediently re-zoned by compliant councillors in the fashion of the times.
Today many of these re-zoned bogland sites remain unsold.
They never will be sold.Its over.
Many of the half finished housing developments in remote places may never be finished.
Granted ,Fianna Fail have spent a kings ransom buying land from farmers to extend new roads into the heartlands of remote areas such as Leitrim etc.
The fortunate farmers who owned lands in the path of these highways are now flush with taxpayers cash-the roads lead to nowhere-except derelict and unfinished building sites.
“Happy the man whose wish and care a few paternal acres once bound” (and are now sold to the NRA Quango.(National Roads Authority)
He and his descendants are now filthy rich (unless they invested their gains in irish bank shares.!)
Meanwhile the rot goes on, and the cutback hit the old, the sick,and the handicapped.
“Fianna Fail hurt the old ,the sick and the handicapped”
An election slogan for somebody.?
Comment 276 @ wills, tim, john allen , furrylugs et al. I have just come home from a night out in my home town ( which has been ten years )… so not drinking …
I will tell you all Sunday why you are collectively wasting your time