‘What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.” So says the official advertising slogan for America’s den of iniquity. Knowing this “knowing” slogan, I was expecting something slightly more risqué than the overwhelming smell of waffles and pancakes, which greeted me at Las Vegas Airport.
Granted, there are those stick insects that hang out in the Ice Bar who might regard scoffing down sticky chocolate smeared pancakes as the most lewd and depraved thing known to humanity. But for most of us, something more hardcore might be expected here in America’s centre of sin.
Whatever your weakness, it is clear that self-restraint is not high on the agenda in Vegas. In fact, if one word can describe this place it is gratification, instant gratification.
This town is a microcosm of much that has gone wrong economically with the US (which is why I am here making a documentary). Vegas is loud, brash, overdrawn and in recession. The economy here is crashing.
Nevada has the third-highest rate of unemployment in the Union and house prices are plummeting. Up to 8,000 casino workers have been laid off since January and business is down everywhere.
Like Ireland, Vegas boomed in the past 10 years, construction sucked in workers from all over the US and Mexico and it heralded low taxes and the spirit of the individual. Like Ireland, Vegas engaged in Casino Capitalism based on short-term gains gambling with other people’s money. It bet the house on construction and lost.
Today, the place is full of the same ghost estates that blight our land, built miles away from the city with no transport links. These are houses built for the new service workers of Vegas — workers who are now unemployed. This is now the foreclosure capital of the South West, a state that has gone from boom to bust in a matter of a year. This morning, the third Nevada-based bank this year has gone bust.
Things are grim in the vice capital of the US, but it differs from Ireland in one crucial aspect. This difference will cushion the blow of the recession, allowing Nevada to recover more quickly. If it were an independent country, faced with a recession, Nevada would devalue its currency and trade its way out of this crisis, allowing hotel room prices in Vegas to plummet relative to California and attract in more Californian tourists in process.
But it can’t. It is a state of the United States of America. The downside is that Nevada can’t devalue; the upside is that it gets huge transfers from the federal government to pay for its unemployed in the same way that Wexford gets transfers from the Dublin government to pay for the rise in unemployment in Enniscorthy.
As a result, the impact of the recession in Nevada will be more cushioned than it otherwise would be if Nevada were an independent state within the dollar zone.
Now look at Ireland. Ireland is an independent state within the Eurozone. Because there is no central European budget where we might get federal transfers, we have to suffer this recession with a hard currency, without any offsetting budgetary help. How dumb is that?
Ireland has abandoned macroeconomics and is now being run by mantras, which allow our leaders to avoid honestly assessing our situation.
Ideally, we would devalue our currency and print money to get us out of this mess. We should also increase government investment, not reduce it. This is after all the core of macroeconomic theory as I learnt it.
When you have a liquidity problem where the people are hoarding, not spending, the state takes up the reins and spends. This is what every country did in the 1930s and goes to the heart of the response to the crisis which President Obama unveiled last week. But the Irish government is trapped, we have got ourselves into a stupid situation whereby we can neither devalue nor spend excessively. Therefore, our present European arrangement is the worst of all worlds.
But we are going to vote on Europe again this year with Lisbon II, so what should we do?
Less Europe and an ability to devalue our currency would help enormously but so too would more Europe and fiscal federalism where real political and budgetary integration accompanies monetary union and free trade.
This implies that the best policy for Ireland is either to dilute our commitment to Europe or enhance it greatly! Both outcomes are better than keeping the present status quo of being full members of the euro in a half-constructed political union. This is a disaster. So something has to give.
The financial markets have twigged this Irish dilemma and are betting that Germany will not tolerate more European integration, which the Germans could rightly see as yet another attempt to extort from the German taxpayer money to pay for Ireland’s sins. This is why the market which measures the risk of an Irish default, known as the credit default swap market, is suggesting that a default in Ireland is likely.
However, as against that, the political class in Europe and in Germany in particular, by proposing a European bond, is moving gradually towards more muscular political integration backed up by these monetary measures.
At the moment Germany, while admittedly footing the EU bill, gains tremendously from the EU because it can export its goods freely in the union, without having to worry too much about the budgetary implication of an EU-wide recession. So German trade benefits are amplified in a Euro boom but its fiscal downsides are capped in a recession. So it is win, win for Germany.
Granted it is the largest contributor to the Euro budget but this budget is modest when compared to a national budget and the national responsibility of proper EU governance.
Thus this crisis is not just a challenge to Ireland but it is also a challenge to Europe. We can improve our lot by taking either radical option.
We would be better off being the most ardent pro-Europeans or by being the first to leave the currency union! Equally, we know that if we stay as we are, we will have a much longer recession than is warranted, which is political and social suicide.
In short, we have to make big adult choices. In contrast, here in the land of the Elvis impersonators, Casino Capitalism is a grown-ups Disneyland, which will be paid for by the croupier in the form of Uncle Sam. Unfortunately, in our Irish version of Casino Capitalism, the punter always pays.
We are in a situation where we have to make a move. We can’t stay as we are.
In biblical terms, Ireland needs the Wisdom of Solomon; lamentably all we are faced with is the Life of Brian.
But there’s a thought Deco and johnAllen.
Could we Kebab all the Golden Ones on top of the Spire as a warning to future greed?
Furrylugs, Deco, JohnAllen, et al, … still witty, though!
There are still more “5s” being added to the list of ideas back on “Turn Crisis into Opportunity”. It is some stuff! Can we try to find some time to analyse it?
I have communicated some of it to our “leaders” already, and followed that up with emails to remind them this week – only Sean Haughy has responded and said he will raise it with colleagues this week. Perhaps he is just being polite to fob me off, but he struck me as sincere last Saturday and replying to my email this morning seems encouraging.
Would people consider sending copies to their own Dail representatives?
I’ve sent a letter to the minister for finance regarding my thoughts on the levy and the principles under which it’s being applied. We’ll see if I get a response.
So let me get this straight;
The Banks in Ireland operate “fractional reserve” at a 9:1 ratio more or less.
They lend money out to develops, businesses etc. by electronically crediting their accounts with x amount of digits as agreed in loan.
The loaner can’t repay this loan.
The Bank declare they now have a bad debt.
The Bank ask the Government to bail them out with real money.
Can’t the Banks just delete this electronic debt?
If so why don’t they?
If what I’m saying is correct and I’d like all those on this forum to clarify, I’m going to write to vVinnie Brown this evening and hope he reads out my email/ text.
Thanks to Wills for enlightening me.
Simply put, they borrowed the money to fund the now Non-Performing Loans from other banks, mostly within the Eurozone. They can’t just delete these loans as they’re contracted. Hence, the taxpayer is being asked to foot the bill for Irish banks showing appalling judgement in their lending. It’s really not much more complex than that.
Hi Josey.
I asked myself that question too and this is what i uncovered.
The Bank asking for real money is in actuality not for the bad debt itself.
It is to add to the cash reserves on hand for back stopping against the debts going bad.
Look at it like this. There are more than one narratives at play in one situation
criss crossing over each other.
The banks do actually go ahead and delete the virtual debt electronically.
The real money coming in from the gov is electronic too, i.e the gov didnt
deliver 3billion in cash to aib in bags. Its a promise the cash will be there.
Look at it like this….. Credit is merely a process of making purchasing
power available at any given moment. Always keep that in mind. Do
not confuse it with money.
@Wills
“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today” !! FF Mr Wimpy economics :-(
Ruairi, lovely!
Guess where Brutus, Popeye and Olive oil sit in Dail Eireann?
Josey.
The whole area here is alice in wonderland.
The govs bailout to a bank becomes real money when
the process of transferring the sum from electronic numbers
into real cash occurs. Now this point of monetary alchemy is intriguing.
This is where things get opaque and suspect.
anyhows thing is that…..
the taxpayers money is not paying of the bad debts which is how
its been sold to the taxpayer. If the taxpayer was told the capitalisation
is in fact tax money given too the bank to add to cash reserves too be
able to pay savers withdrawals and god knows bonuses and what else…
the banks are pretending all the way as they use conjuring tricks to
keep joe bloggs from susing that his mortgage was never there and
on;y came into existence when he went into the bank and borrowed it.
How,. they typed the numbers into his account.
dont want him to know cos then he be rather upset he is paying
them interest every month for 30 years.
For those who haven’t seen this yet, a wee tale of speculative betting with a difference –
Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Peter Mandelson are flying to a world
economic summit. Peter looks at Alistair and chuckles: ‘You know, I could
throw a ?50 note out of the window right now and make one person very
happy.’
Alistair shrugs his shoulders and says: ‘Well, I could throw five
?10 notes out of the window and make five people very happy.’
Gordon says:’Of course, but I could throw ten ?5 notes out of the window and make ten
people very happy.’
The pilot rolls his eyes, looks at all of them, and says: ‘I could throw all of you out of the window and make the whole country happy
Lol
Josey,
I’d like to add that,..
this its called debt/money system fraud is the story.
All the rest of it comes after…. It’s pointless talking
about anything else hence the nature of my postings.
We shou;d really be using this forum to focus in on
this and get the word out on this dennis the menance
trickery. I know human greed has a part to play
but i believe too one has to lead to inspire.
the thing is with this thing there are those who bought
into it and those that didnt and the two can never be reconciled.
Hi,
26,700 people lost their job in Ireland in February.
63,000 people lost their job in Germany in February. So Ireland lost almost half the amount of jobs of a country 20 times its size.
Why, because the Germans have introduced new measures to help companies put their staff on short-time rather than lay them off. It*s well explained here http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1016019.shtml
It`s a win win situation as the govt does not have to pay full unemployment, the employer can reduce his costs and the employee still gets about 94% of his pay and has extra time to upskill. Which is what many of those crafty Germans are doing, Paddy of course would be down the boozer.
The EU will either fall apart or come closer together as a result of this crisis and my bet is on the latter. If the EU breaks up everyone loses. The Germans biggest trading partner is other EU countries, so they would be shooting themselves in the foot if they didn`t help out. Which is why their politicians have started talking about European bonds etc.
For every Euro of EU money, it`s said that 23 cents comes from the Germans. And if you ask the average Hans what he thinks about it, at first he`ll complain about it. But then he`ll remember the good things such as 50 years of political stability and the bringing down of trade barriers which means he can export more easily.
Ireland should be flirting with her European partners and showing them her potential and her will to put the head down and start achieving things. She doesn`t have many strengths at the moment but with a little help from her friends she could be a valuable partner. But Ireland is not doing this. We don`t do plans. We do begging bowls. Shame.
Hi Johninmunich.
You must understand this is been done to us
we don’t have any power over it.
wills, keep at it; the penny is starting to drop. Your posts are penetrating my psyche.
@tim, thanks tim, it is a very dense subject matter,. unreal
this subject, i couldn’t believe it when i discovered accidentally,
wills, do you have (or, could you find), perhaps, sometime, the patience to tell the story of how you “discovered this accidentally”?
I think that we, Irish, love “story” and that it is a very useful teaching/learning tool.
okedok tim, will do.
Hi Tim
I am working on getting up a section of the site where we can pool together some good ideas that have been bubbling up in the comments.
Hopefully I can have this up for Friday. Watch this space.
Ronin, thanks a million; that’s an excellent idea; my copying and pasting was getting a little unwieldy. A more accessible “home” for the ideas generated will be much better. Thanks again.
Tim,
on behalf of others here, sterling work for continuing to pull those topics together.
At least on this blog, and in David’s articles, there is evidence of evolution of thought and grappling with alternative futures.
Ruairi, thanks.
“If we always do what we’ve always done ……. we’ll always get what we’ve always got.”
We all need to work together to do something Different; Our government is just doing what it has always done:
Yet ANOTHER “slash and burn” budget on the way;
New raid on the NPRF to re-recapitalise BoI and AIB;
Defeated opposition motion to cap bankers’ remuneration.
Zero stimulous, zero positive, pro-active measures.
I am suggesting that re-capitalisation should ONLY occur THROUGH cheques to defaulting companies/homeowners, made payable to the banks.
The banks become recapitalised anyway, but the companies stay afloat and maintain jobs (thus avoiding dole payments and bigger hole in exchequer, while maintaining workers’ taxes) and people keep their homes; potential toxic debt in the banks is wiped out, thus improving confidence in our system.
I cannot see why this has not been done in this way already. What is wrong with this idea?
Hi tim,
let me give that one a try,.
if you analyse this closely outside of the box like what i’m doing
now i see one thing sticking out, the powers at be are leaving
people in a state of uncertainty for whatever reason.
Ronan, “oops”: The Film, named “Ronin” was in my head when I wrote that, ……. sorry, Sir!
We should have a United States of Europe. I’m 16 years old and this is my opinion.
eireboy, welcome. A sixteen year old girl asked me, last oct/nov (I think):
“If the share prices are all falling, why don’t we just shut down the markets, until everything settles?”
Your age does NOT diminish the potential value of your opinion.
Continue thinking; continue to generate ideas. There are advantages and disadvantages attached to most ideas, including yours; indeed, many have argued that the Lisbon Treaty will, in effect, deliver your “United States of Europe”. Others disagree, but it is important to discuss the ideas – you never know from whence the answer will come.
Hi eireboy,
I came on board this blog 3 weeks ago and respect for my
opinions/viewpoints has been unstintingly respectful.
On ‘united states of europe can i say this, the problem with this
idea seems to me to be that it will involve surrendering ones
political soverengity at least partially and this is unwise for any
independent nation to do for it removes power into a concentrated
power center.
wills , with all due respect Your waffling if you think keeping our ‘political soverengity’ is a concern for you. We have never been independent get out of your shell and wake up
Hi Brendan,
first of, i’m not waffling im attempting to get my mind around a very dense topic. Look at my post from one written ‘in theory’ lines as oppossed to the reality on the ground as they are. Also, one can possess a political soveregnity on a personal level, but this enters us into political philosophy to which we be best in company for.
BrendanW! Lost you for a while! Glad to see you are back.
You make a valid point on sovereignty to wills; perhaps, if you “soften your blow”, as it were, the rest of us might read a very interesting exchange?
Tonight,
the plot thickens.
Where once beermats were the preserve of visionary politicians and dotcom Beowulfs, now the humble box o’ matches has been deployed as a resistance communications device to warn the good people of Ireland. . .
Maguire & Paterson’s stealth device has a number of formats but one shows the Bank of Ireland on College Green all lit up like the candle of hope in Aras an Uachtaráin.
The other said says “NEVER ASK A FOX TO MIND THE HENS”
That don’t need decipherin buckos. M&P warned yis all. And the Gardaí top brass too. But no, they didn’t listen . . . .
Another version has the Customs House on the front (with ominous black dirty Dublin clouds (or IRA smoke) its hard to tell) and on the back it warns “Sense doesn’t come before age” – in other words, we’re too young as a state to have any cop on at all at all.
Sigh . . . ..
Furrylugs deco tim et al – I have enjoyed your sense of humour in these bleak moments – we are living in extraordinary moments unfolding into dark hole – somehow I can already sense that something is beginning to kick in with the community around us all over the country – the panic has started
JohnAllen, et al, apparently, the G. Ryan show (post 10am today) had some highly comedic submissions from listeners in the form of Limericks about our impending April Fool’s budget. I have not “listened-back” yet, but if you have time, it might be worth it.
Maybe, “work hard – play hard”;
Maybe, “Life is short – play more”;
However, laughter is a great therapy and we must not lose our sense of humour, serious though our task remains.
“We are in a situation where we have to make a move. We can’t stay as we are.”
I’ve never been involved in politics but thought that politicians were elected to understand the key issues, develop ‘long term’ policies and then enact legislation for economic and social benefits for the country and it’s citizens ?
Today the Government have made another ‘u turn’ based on information which is a day old but the real story has been hidden among the media spin playing down the key issues and our problems. Let’s bottom line it, the government is not ‘thinking of the future’ instead it is managing the situation on a daily basis.
Yesterday the government announced an exchequer statement where the ‘hole’ in the public finance could be as high as €25 billion this year. Brian Cowen in his Ard Fheis speech on Saturday said we would spend €55 billion this year, on yesterday’s February tax returns we could have revenue of less than €30 billion this year.
Why are they still talking saving a few billion to ‘fix’ the problem ???
David, your article on the economy in Nevada reminded me of how at risk this economy is – Nevada has the lowest ‘corporation tax regime’ in the US. The likes of Microsoft and many other ‘high value’ product and service providers use ‘operations centres’ in Nevada to book revenue and generate lower tax bills on profits.
From your article, the cost of doing business in Nevada is plummeting making Ireland look even more ‘expensive’ versus this state for ‘doing business’. The Governor of Nevada faced with the challenge of a falling ‘state income’ could have a quick word with President Obama to repatriate all revenue from exports via Nevada.
I know multinationals based here in Ireland have considered this before, does anyone in our Government comprehend the risk, if so will they wait until the ‘day after’ to talk about action. Dell, Bausch & Lomb – how many more do we have to wait until we have some action.
Proposals which could make a difference have all been made on this site over the last few months – is anyone bothering to listen ?
I believe in the value and importance of the European Union to ireland but it is obvious to any business person trading internationally from Ireland without devaluing the currency, ‘internationally traded services’ exports from Ireland will ‘transact’ in more favourable economies outside the ‘euro zone’. Can we start a debate on what are our options ?
I wrote this letter a year ago and presented it to all the major political parties present at a Forum on Europe. I recall an ex Minister saying maybe I should “use my persuasion skills to convince the UK to join the EURO”. I wish it was so easy but what about the US and other ‘cheaper’ economies…
http://www.forumoneurope.ie/eng/index.asp?docID=1644
Unfortunately, politicians are afraid of engaging in active discussions on alternatives and possible solutions, not good enough as this is a national crisis for every 5 people employed 1 is ‘signing on’. Last month, nearly equal amounts were paid in Income Tax as paid in Social welfare – do we just wait until the balance is ‘tipped’ irrecoverably in the other direction !!
John an excellent article to europe forum , I think the time is now to put ideas into action and of course a modern day political party .
Hi brendan.
I’m putting ideas into action,… hope im accorded same posting respect protocol.
Hi Brendan.
i would just like to say for the record im not in a shell. And i am wide awaaaaaakeee im not sleeping. Please dont assume you know me brendan that will put you into the stalker category.
Wills that post of yours reminded me of a Radiohead song…
“stop whispering….start shouting…”
keep it up!!!
Hi Brendan.
i would just like to say for the record im not in a shell. And i am wide awaaaaakeee im not sleeping. Please dont assume you know me brendan that will put you into the stalker category.
Johnny Dunne, Prophetic bone-fides and kudos! *Bows*.
Required reading, I suggest to all.
Did you, by any chance, in your engagement with the forum on Europe, encounter IBEC’s submission to that forum, which highlighted the globalisation/free-market/privatisation agenda inherent in Articles 113-118 of the Lisbon Treaty?
I read it, at the time, but it has become very difficult to locate, these days.
Thanks Tim, here is the submission.
http://www.forumoneurope.ie/eng/index.asp?docID=1650
I recall the IBEC who presented beside me saying he didn’t believe the amount of exports from Irish owned indigineous companies was as low as I was saying (I was quoting EI statistics). Another example of ‘social partners’ setting ‘policies’ with no concept of the facts. How can viable solutions be proposed and then actioned if there is no analysis of options?
Via va Los Vagas and Enniscorthy ( riverside hotel a mad spot ! ). with only a few days to go to our national holiday may be we should all just sit back and look at the bigger picture under our noses. Our leaders will of course be heading out to such destinations as The big Apple ,Sydney and other wonderful cities which I don’t need to give blog time to. While mentioning unemployment in Wexford I saw this week past that now Mr Sean Connick TD from there has advised his younger brother to now run for the local council as no doubt he would like to see his brother who presently sells BMW’s in Carlow get in on the gravy train he is on now that he has reached The Dail.
Ireland as a national State has today got some of the most under qualified people running the Nation and we are paying these politic the world’s highest wages. You just have to see the funny side of it now and the spin they can still put out through their own RTE network.
Of course this is also a part of the cycle of growth of any nation and now we are approaching the time to clean out the top layer of over indulgent wasters we have holding the states treasures , a knowledge led economy ?. who are they joking show me just One Goverment department that is presently been run efficiently there is not One and they all bring in consultants who are of course experts in their fields to tell them they are of course been run ineffectively.
Vagas was just waste land until the Italian Mafia saw a way of flushing their other cities activities and it worked for them , just like the scams ALL our Bank Managers have just pulled off here, a business friend of mine saw Fitzpatrick in greystones golf club last weekend and he seemed not to have a care in the world ,and why should he as he knows like The House always wins where Casinos are if pushed to return his bounty he’ll bring down the political class who wanted their photos taken with him over the golden years (just gone) .
And regarding the House always winning and the Webmasters new set up here ,……Why Tim did you not raise the issue last weekend of the out sourcing of Web Builders for your F.F web site ?…..
BremdanW,
“And regarding the House always winning and the Webmasters new set up here ,……Why Tim did you not raise the issue last weekend of the out sourcing of Web Builders for your F.F web site ?…..”
I am unsure about what you mean here, Brendan. Do you mean that David’s webmaster should have had “first-dibbs” on a FF web-site? Or that, at LEAST, some Irish web-master should have? If so, I agree, wholeheartedly.
It is “the House always winning” that confuses me; that seems to suggest cronyism, on my part, might have “swung-the-deal” for Ronan. I do not like “cronyism” as the first-arbiter, though I DO see a value in “helping” a GOOD man.
The TRUTH, of the matter, if I understand you correctly, is that I DID NOT KNOW/was unaware, at the time, that FF had out-sourced its web-site contract: I stumbled across (but did not have time to read) an article about it in a newspaper on either Sunday or Monday – I don’t know, so please don’t “hold-me-to” the days) and I “pricked up my ears”.
I am opposed to “out-sourcing”, in general, as I consider it to be an intrinsic element of the “race-to-the-bottom”, in terms of workers’ wages, and a major part of the “profits-up-wages-down” agenda of IBEC, Government, Lisbon, and Globalisation in general.
I am apalled, …. APALLED!!!!!! …. that FF would “out-source” this job – especially at this juncture – but “too cruel, anywhere” (Shakespeare, on the murder of King Duncan, in MacBeth).
I have been busy, in the last while, trying to keep up with work and “dipping-in” here as often as possible (because I find solace here – because, here, it seems, people are THINKING – and…….
I “Dropped the ball”, on that one ……
You are right.
I had my FF Cumann AGM meeting last night and offered to “step-down” from the chairmanship, due to my conflict with current policy ……. and NO-ONE mentioned the out-sourcing, to another country, of the website (When did it emerge in the media that it happened?).
But, Brendan, the members AGREED with me on my/our views.
There may be a “Sea-change”, yet!
They re-elected me, unopposed.
That could mean that no-one gives a sh1t anymore …….
….. or, it could mean that they agree with ME.
I dunno ……
I am sorry I “dropped the ball”. Mea Culpa. I should have been able to “off-set” that.
It’s bad; MY bad. And YOU, or anybody, has a right to bring it up.
Hi John.
i think we’re in a transition orchestrated or not, and i’m optimistic
here on the outcome. Looking at this thing i think powers at be are
paniked too, i see alot of accelerating goin on which to me indicates
people on the wrong side of time.
Hi Bloggers.
quickly tune into newsnight nooooowww
Bit more uplifting than last night. The deficit shrunk by tens of billions when we forgot the bank debt. The lesson here is that we can improve the economy and morale by forgetting about our banks :-)
I was going to point out the EU wealth distribution mechanism that is structural funds, but then I (eventually) found MK1′s post and (s)he’s covered pretty much all the bases I had in mind.
So +1 for MK1.
Is there an argument to be made for abandoning the NDP?
As David said >We should also increase government investment, not reduce it. This is after all the core of macroeconomic theory as I learnt it.
It is also what I’ve been taught, and have seen as ‘the best way’. But I am starting to have doubts. Ireland was very pro-cyclical during the good years, maybe leaving us with a small national debt, but with huge personal debts. As these non-government debts are nationalised, just how pro-cyclical Ireland (the nation) has been will become clear. To suddenly switch gear to a counter-cyclical one may prove unsustainable. Should we commit to spend money based on a theory that we have collectively chosen to ignore for the past ten years?
The NDP will be a draw on the national budget when the benefits it promises to produce may be underutilised. Good infrastructure is important, but it is not the most important part of a society, or even a economy. Abandoning the NDP is not to be done lightly, but if doing it can stave off national bankruptcy, then perhaps we can keep our dreams of efficient infrastructure for when we can afford to make them reality without turning it into a pyrrhic victory.
If anyone here has an interest in current economic debate, this piece by Willem Buiter in the FT is well worth a read.
http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/the-unfortunate-uselessness-of-most-state-of-the-art-academic-monetary-economics/#more-667
Lorcan, can anyone, EVER “afford” a NDP? Could NY “afford” the Subway, when it wa built? London, the “Tube”? Paris, the “Metro”?
When was the last time that any of these “NDP” systems “Balanced their books”, if you know?
Or, are they, all, subsidised? I do not think that they are.
I do not think that a “Balance-Sheet” approach is, necessarily, the correct approach on this.
If so, whither the “bus-pass”, for example?
businesslunch.ie, Your post on 04 Mar 2009 5:59 pm (on page 1) are exactly the things I have been calling for time and time again. Tim, these would be my 5, although they are obvious really.
The only aspect I think which is open to debate is the level of capital/infrastucture investment. Lorcan, you raised the point as well.
If we look at the Japanese example of the late 80′s, their investments in infrastructure are still debatable in terms of return of investment. Yes, we do need to have viable and efficient transport systems, good schools, hospitals, town planning, etc, BUT they have to be VERY efficient investments that produce as much as possible for each euro invested. In that light, a 6m euro new school is a waste of money for the short-term. end of. qed.
We are at a precipice so we need to decide very wisely on all spending. Its not difficult not to feel confident in our government steering us through this. Like a gambler who is running low on chips, we need to spend our chips very wisely indeed. We could take a ‘breather’ in capital investments whilst the gap between tax income and government spend is bridged. A year moratorium on the 8 billion or so may help us in the long term, even though I understand that 5 billion is ‘already committed’, although there may be contract exits that could save us even more (whilst paying penalties perhaps).
There is no point borrowing just to pay for people. There is a benefit in borrowing however to create sustainable jobs. But the current global environment makes that very difficult indeed.
Shouldnt the states public finances be made public (and not just to FF, GP, and one hour for FG and Labour, SF as well) ? We are in many respects working in a data vacuum. Indeed, I believe that the government is working in a vacuum themselves. Unlike a Cisco where yesterday’s sales are known the next morning, we (Dept of Finance, Revene) haven’t got a real-time clue really.
Btw, Vincent Brown giving a good grilling to Joan Burton tonight on TV3. Wills, I did switch over to Newsnight, was it the item on Doncaster or did I miss something?
MK1
ps: Ronan/Webmaster, I vote to chage the sort order on these responses to be the more logical ‘in time descending order’.
MK1, What if (just “what if”) IT is all “virtual money”?
Why not, just, say, “We screwed-up”. Our “virtual money scheme” did not work for the World, (it only works for the few people at the top, who got too greedy) so, let’s all agree to set it at nought and start again, but avoid the mistakes, this time, and try to build a new sytem that DOES work?
I know, I will be accused of being “simple” again; but I do not care.
Why does it all have to be about “profit” and “Dividends” and becoming “Wealthy”? – There are no pockets in a shroud.
Why can we not, just, create a system where people all, just, “live”?
Why does it HAVE to be about “profit” and SOME people living better than others?
We are all, just, “people” – not “similar” hopes and dreams (when you remove “profit”), but the SAME hopes and dreams.
Thanks for the feedback MK1,
I flip flopped on which way to order items was best. The problem with running the comments from oldest -> newest is that we really need to break up the comments over a number of pages, so this would have you paging through several pages of comments just to get to the new ones. This is not great either.
I have opened a poll below David’s article though, and I will bow to the wishes of the people :)
Ronan
why not let folks choose the sort order they prefer at the top?
It seems there’s around 8Bn in capital projects we had planned over the next few years. We’ve apparently committed to around 5Bn of these. Screw the committment. All these contracts have force majeure clauses so let’s exercise them. Most infrastructure projects will be more cost effective if postponed for a while. Some could be dropped completely. If we don’t cancel many of these projects we’ll end up raising income taxes much higher, reducing spending further and back into the negative feedback loop of raising income taxes…Repeat ad nauseum until we’re back in the 70s. (the decade and the high rate of tax!)
Also, the capital projects we proceed with should have their cost bases renegotiated where reasonable. The scenario we should prevent is proppping up the building trade by honouring overpriced infrastructure projects when the general populace are being impoverished.
We need to stop quoting unemployment statistics as a percentage of the total population. It’s ridiculous. Why are we still trying to “spin” an economic situation that everyone regards as disastrous???
While I’m at it, we need to stop inflationary tax reliefs. E.g. the property market needs to sink to reasonable levels whereby houses can be afforded without 25% relief for FTB’s. If we can have exceptional taxes imposed on everyone else then surely landlords should see their section 23 and 50 reliefs removed. Everything we’re hearing from the government right now suggests that those who benefitted the least from the Celtic Tiger are going to proportionally suffer the most. It’s grotesque.
@shane. Its well planned too. The lower downers are the punchbags.
Shane Dempsey,
“The scenario we should prevent is proppping up the building trade by honouring overpriced infrastructure projects when the general populace are being impoverished.”
The Oireachtas passes legislation; WE choose and hire the Oireachtas.
That is who we should be convincing, but, I am afraid, very few people are talking to their TDs. (an TELLING them what to do).
Email your own TDs NOW! (Everyone!) [not just Shane, obviously, I hope].
Better still, send letters via registered post. I’m serious here. If you’re sending emails the read-receipt them. Whatever about the constitutional imperatives of avoiding anarchy and the impoverishment of the populace, the government governs at the behest of the people and is responsible to dail eireann. We need to ensure all TD’s are well aware of this responsibility.
Article 28 – 2 “The executive power of the State shall, subject to the provisions of this Constitution, be exercised by or on the authority of the Government.”
Article 45 – 2 “The State shall, in particular, direct its policy towards securing:
i. That the citizens (all of whom, men and women equally, have the right to an adequate means of livelihood) may through their occupations find the means of making reasonable provision for their domestic needs.
ii. That the ownership and control of the material resources of the community may be so distributed amongst private individuals and the various classes as best to subserve the common good.
iii. That, especially, the operation of free competition shall not be allowed so to develop as to result in the concentration of the ownership or control of essential commodities in a few individuals to the common detriment.
iv. That in what pertains to the control of credit the constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the people as a whole.
v. That there may be established on the land in economic security as many families as in the circumstances shall be practicable.”
Much of what’s happened over the past few years, never mind months, has prima facie been inconsistent with social policy in the constitution.A prime example would be the planning regulations and their implementation which contributed to the boom by establishing a cartel of builders controlling the property market in the greater Dublin area. This was demonstrably to the detriment of Irish society. We’ll be paying for the folly for years.
It probably needs a judicial review. This would probably be massively expensive for the plucky individual(s) who challenged the implementation of social policy under current Irish institutions but may lead, eventually, to enforced reform of our government and governmental departments.
Good evening all,
Again I’m catching up with all your ideas, and it is not beyond me to understand. Most of all I need time to consider and allow new idea into my mindset.
Thank you Webmaster for seeking to develop some structure within which we can consider particular ideas in depth.
Thank you David Spangler for introducing a different dimension. [An unbeliever say this to you.]
Why, oh why, has no one commented on the contribution by Businesslunch.ie? Is there something about Businesslunch.ie I don’t know about? I looked at the link and was impressed without going past the first page.
Thank you Tim for staying both here and in FF. I value every scrap of intelligence you release about the internal state of that party’s effort to cope.
Why has no one said that they are in FG? Why no one in Labour? Such silence does those parties no service. At my most sceptical, I think it’s evidence of intellectual bankruptcy, arrogance or an absurd superiority complex. It can’t be ignorance of social media.
Thank you Malcolm and everyone who’s used poetry to make your point.
Thank you MK1 & Jim for your thoughtful interventions.
Thanks too to everyone I have not highlighted, including Wills.
Have I any point of substance?
(1) My next door neighbour has lost his job. So has my cleaner’s husband. I lost a client today because his business has no demand or cash flow; he’s diversified and invested his time in a different business which is expanding into a new venture. I hope he’ll find a way to engage me again as his strategic sounding board.
Today’s unemployment figures are dreadful and they will get a whole worse, every month, as far as I can see ahead.
We face a monstrous social problem with huge numbers of unemployed men unable to find a role in life. Add this to the disappearance of more and more “low-skilled and semi-skilled” jobs, and the future frightens me. What will the children think when they see their parents with no prospect of work through out their formative years?
(2) Am I mad to say that our biggest problem is not economic? The economic is extraordinarily challenging. But the political is horrendous. We simply do not have a credible government.
The current government has completely lost the trust of citizens. I think there is only one way back for them. Hang in, hope that you can lure the opposition into involvement in trying to find solutions. Muddy the water, blame the bankers, and use all your skill to cause people to forget how we got into trouble. Emphasise how bad the rest of the world is, and rely on the fact that there doesn’t have to be a general election for ages. Keep saying you have a responsibility to lead us through this. Put Mary Hannifin in to bat as much as possible: she doesn’t look guilty.
We don’t have a credible government-in-waiting. That’s another argument in favour of the devil you know.
FG, under Mr Kenny, does not seek power and responsibility. It has the government on the ropes, and won’t deliver a knock-out blow. If FG were serious about taking over the reins of government, they would say something like this:
“We demand the government resign. They are no longer fit to govern. We will not be associated with a government that refused to admit they are responsible for leading us into this. They failed to manage the banks; they let they get away with murder. They have murdered the dreams of the Irish people. Go now, go in disgrace. We will not help you stay in power. For the sake of the nation, go and spend years in opposition. Go realise how dreadful you have been. Go learn to read. Go change your values. Go lose your arrogance.
“We are ready to govern. We can do a much better job because we are not used to being corrupt… etc..”
If FG were serious, they would do something symbolic to capture the hope of the nation, like walk all their TDs in unison & nail a proclamation where the 1916 Proclamation was declared. This is a much bigger crisis that the one that faced the men and women of 1916.
(3) I have no view on the politics of FG and Labour. All I want is this lot out, lock stock and barrel. I have confidence that there are excellent concerned people in FF. Tim is a tip of the iceberg. I know one other FF supporter in Cork, and he is an honest man. [He resisted an attempt by someone from FAS to bribe him. He told me, and I believed him.]
(4) As David McWilliams and others have urged, we need a cull in every banking institution in Ireland, especially AIB and BoI. We probably need those banks in future. If they are going to be safe enough for my needs, I need them bleached. The symbolism matters. It always does. Only whistleblowers should be exempt for expulsion from the upper echelons.
I think it is possible for one person to change the culture of a complex institution, but there is no one in Ireland I’d back to have the skill, moral centredness and vision for such a task.
All those people saying they’d like to stay to reform the institution should go, without handshakes. Words are cheap, easily crafted by MBAs. None of them have a track record of responsible action, they wouldn’t make a properly selected short list if they applied for their jobs again, I say.
(5) There are too few people in Ireland who have kept themselves unseduced by the easy morality of the “market”.
I trust no one in public life, until they prove themselves worthy of my trust. Right now, I suspect them all of wasting citizen’s money. I also suspect every tom, dick and harry of lining their own pockets with absurd “expenses”. That’s how low my suspicions have fallen.
The man for Air Arann sounded good in the interview with Pat Kenny. I’d be inclined to examine him closely, in the hope he might turn out to be decent through and through.
(6) I’d still like to link in a more concrete way with people who are putting their ideas on the line here. The Facebook Group I put up was a feeble step.
I’ve only been here for 3 years since 1975. And during 18 months of that time in Cork, I had two bouts of severe depression and played no part in public life. So I still feel myself to be a very naive returned migrant.
The only thing I’m sure of is that I’m staying. If I believed in God, I’d say god bless you all.
Hi shane,
thks for the heads up.
I would suggest on the point that our leaders are rudderless is down to that they are out of their depth and have discovered irelands into something to which they are seriously disconcerted about and literally dont know what to do about it.
Paul, What a post!
“Oh, God, if there is a God, …. Come now!” (Heinrich Ibsen, Abelard and Eloise”).
Sir, your passion for your people and your country is undoubted; your posts tend to be well-thought-out (whether people agree or dis-agree); you are attempting to “grow” the ideas here, with your “Facebook” group – keep at it. Be not despondent. Perhaps, a “point-by-point” instruction on “How-to” may be helpful? I repeat: “Be not despondent”!
We ARE here; We are NOT “going away, ya know”; and we are THINKING!
….. and I ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT STOP – EVER, until I know that my children are SAFE.
You are not alone.
“Nothing impairs a man’s judgment more than seeing his neighbor getting rich.”
nice saying and how true.
Now for reality
We are spending more than we can afford to.
We are paying ourselves more than we are worth.
We have to much personal debt to service.
Reality Bites.
Now who can i blame?
oh and who’s gona pay for this mess caus i sure as hell aint!!!
Aidan, did anyone “pay” for it, in the first place? Really?
wills is beginning to make a WHOLE lotta sense.
Folks, ok …… TRUTH in “case-study”:
When I bought my house, in 1995, when I got married (as you do), I borrowed the MAXIMUM allowed, at the time, of 2.5 (yes, that is 2 and a half) my Grosse income.
The banks,,believe it, or not, had “LIMITS” on what a person could borrow, at that time.
They have not had limits, since, in my estimation.
Six months, get it? Six months after I bought my house (to LIVE in and RAISE a FAMILY in, btw, NOT as some form of “investment” to “make money”, which of course, it wouldn’t, unless I sold it to someone else and FLEECED them on the price), my house became too expensive for me to buy.
Something happened in 1995 (or very shortly thereafter) to change the rules.
I suspect the banks in this.
I believe in history. I disagree with Noel Dempsey, when he says, “The past is the past – we are where we are”.
We MUST understand our “past”, in order to understand where we are going.
“I’m alright, Jack” will NOT do.
We MUST all work TOGETHER.
Tim,
Nice honest post with a message at the end which rings true, even more true if you are an “insider”.
Please allow me to indulge with what might seem like nitpicking, I blame my favourite college professor who told me keep asking the question why until you can’t ask it anymore.
So you bought in ’95 when you got married. Why? Does it say at the end of the marriage certificate that the marriage is null and void if you don’t buy a house? No it doesn’t I’m sure. Maybe you felt it was the normal thing to do. If so, why? Maybe because it seemed like everyone else did it, and thought you’d be a moron for not doing it. If so, why? Maybe because people like to be part of a herd and wish the hers to be as large as possible? If so, why? etc…..
You are correct, something did happen in 1995. The future finallyseemed bright. Multinationals were on their way, and had plans to expand if they had already arrived. This foreign investment came with conditions, no unions in the workplace and capital gains tax was to be lowered. They were facilitated. We became productive. They made larger profits. The “parasite” class saw this, and decided they’d get rich on the back of it. Completed Housing units were deliberately set below demand, thus pushing up prices, which pushed up the profits of the parasite class. Emigrants returned, which fueled competition in house buying, resulting in a race to the top. Service providers (Mechanics, Barbers, Retailers, Pub Landlords etc…) then thought they could get rich on the back of this too. Public Sector workers turned green with envy and benchmarking was conceived to appease them. We (not all of us) began to congratulate ourselves for being absolutely fantastic. The bubble kept inflating.
And then it burst.
Cowen look’s to his left along the front bench and all he see,s is a bunch of County Councillors.He has chosen these as his front bench because of loyalty,old family ties,past deals,security of tenure etc.When he looks behind he sees no great replacements in waiting.His task is to save Fianna Fail from political meltdown,his supporters from financial loss,and finally Ireland from the potentially biggest economic disaster since the foundation of the State.He sits in quiet reflection,thinking of the time they tried to bury him with the Health portfolio,all the years in Finance listining to Bertie dithering,watching as disgraced Ministers made the walk of shame,Molloy in Fas,all too painfull to reflect on, so back to the left and that vacant look on Mary Coughlan’s face,Batt o Keefe trying to learn his lines for the meeja,Noel Dempsey fixing his new suit for the camera’s.Wille o Dea brings a somber smile “the Charlie Chaplin of poll toppers”….. So 25 years of politics,and now I’m king,the chosen one,the new Parnell,Wolfe Tone,Dev,Lemass………Cowen…God give me strength so I can be just,do right by the people,the Nation and all who have gone before……..BANG..BANG..”The Chair recognises the Taoiseach…Order…The Taoiseach will be allowed to speak………For God sake Brian look into your heart,you can do this,be true to yourself and the people,you have the intelligence and any advice you need to call onn, ignore the handlers and spin doctors and the vested interests.This is about Ireland.This is a fight for our survival.This is not a time to be humble.Give no quarter to anyone who has tried or are trying to beggar this State.Put your trust in the people of this Country.Dont end up like the others in History’s dustbin.
Brian assemble your new war cabinet of advisors,get DavidmcWilliams,Shane Ross.Alan Aherne,Honohan from Tcd,George Lee,etc etc all the brightest you can muster.Tell them to drop what their doing ,Ireland needs them.Put Dept of Finance and others at their beck and call.Order in fuc.ing dinners if you have to,whatever it takes.These guys knows what is needed to solve these problems.The Country will unite behind them.Lets call them “the boy’s in green” “our economic army” whatever.These are macro problems and we need macro guys to solve them.The accountants wont work this shit out.Trust me I know.Their just waiting for the call-up. Do it now!!!!!!!!!!!
These Loonie Moments – the unfolding moon pull continues its journey cracking everything that was meant to break now ( watch your pc or even appliances) , opening its transparency wider and revealing the real business around us .National news continues to proliferate with the surprises and decisions being made that before never entered your mind.Even the decision by our own web master to upgrade the site not only once but twice on this present moon pull journey that should feel safe from wednesday next.Until then the pull will PULL Harder and HARDER so watch the Emotive Spills around you in your simple life and see what I mean perhaps the week end it will become obvious and i am looking forward to reading this site contributions on this Sundays 8th SBP article .War of Emotions ( Highs & Lows ) has begun that in our Nation we will observe as History is being made – Taxi Uion Strike may not be as orderly – perhaps .Anyway Expect more today in news and next few days and it will help you to live better if you in these moments – drive slowley , eat modestly and reduce your alcohol .
[...] David McWilliams, 4 March 2009 ….Ireland has abandoned macroeconomics and is now being run by mantras, which allow our leaders to avoid honestly assessing our situation. Ideally, we would devalue our currency and print money to get us out of this mess. We should also increase government investment, not reduce it. This is after all the core of macroeconomic theory as I learnt it. When you have a liquidity problem where the people are hoarding, not spending, the state takes up the reins and spends. This is what every country did in the 1930s and goes to the heart of the response to the crisis which President Obama unveiled last week. But the Irish government is trapped, we have got ourselves into a stupid situation whereby we can neither devalue nor spend excessively. Therefore, our present European arrangement is the worst of all worlds. But we are going to vote on Europe again this year with Lisbon II, so what should we do? Less Europe and an ability to devalue our currency would help enormously but so too would more Europe and fiscal federalism where real political and budgetary integration accompanies monetary union and free trade. This implies that the best policy for Ireland is either to dilute our commitment to Europe or enhance it greatly! Both outcomes are better than keeping the present status quo of being full members of the euro in a half-constructed political union. This is a disaster. So something has to give. The financial markets have twigged this Irish dilemma and are betting that Germany will not tolerate more European integration, which the Germans could rightly see as yet another attempt to extort from the German taxpayer money to pay for Ireland’s sins. This is why the market which measures the risk of an Irish default, known as the credit default swap market, is suggesting that a default in Ireland is likely. However, as against that, the political class in Europe and in Germany in particular, by proposing a European bond, is moving gradually towards more muscular political integration backed up by these monetary measures. At the moment Germany, while admittedly footing the EU bill, gains tremendously from the EU because it can export its goods freely in the union, without having to worry too much about the budgetary implication of an EU-wide recession. So German trade benefits are amplified in a Euro boom but its fiscal downsides are capped in a recession. So it is win, win for Germany. Granted it is the largest contributor to the Euro budget but this budget is modest when compared to a national budget and the national responsibility of proper EU governance. Thus this crisis is not just a challenge to Ireland but it is also a challenge to Europe. We can improve our lot by taking either radical option. We would be better off being the most ardent pro-Europeans or by being the first to leave the currency union! Equally, we know that if we stay as we are, we will have a much longer recession than is warranted, which is political and social suicide….Link to full article [...]
Only noticed the cartoon, it says much about the current situation.
“Honey, I lost the house” “No Problem, its worth nothing” captures the silliness of most of the financial going on’s….
The house is still worth the same as it was before the boom, during the boom and after the boom, for those lucky enough to be secure there, its home..
Lorcan> this piece by Willem Buiter in the FT
I had a read of that, and whilst the piece will go over the heads of 95% of most people (not the people on here I might add), I tend to agree.
One of my observations of economics is that it is not a science, it is empirical, and it is relatively new and is evolving. Why? Well the economic landscape, systems, etc, are changing. We are actually in unique times. We were in 1050AD, in 1650, we were in 1750, we were in 1850 and 1950 and we will be again in 2050, etc.
Its us humans who are creating the rules for the economic systems in which we live, yet these very same systems fall victim to the simplest of human characteristics, such as greed, herding, selfishness, etc. Unless we change the rules to mitigate against these we will keep falling into the same traps. For example, the fiat money system has only been around since the 70′s. We are experimenting with it, addiing to it, adjusting it, and we will push its boundaries.
I also contend that markets are far from efficient or correct. My argument is that prices are in fact seldom correct, as they play again into the vagaries of human nature. We either overvalue or undervalue. A clear example of this is the stock market where prices are going up and down on a daily basis in step with each other and by large percentage amounts. Its clear that if the Zogs form planet Zog looked down on the pathetic human species (who is still killing itself!) they would see many of our markets like rabbits in headlights. Clueless most of the time and blind.
Tim> Why not, just, say, “We screwed-up”. Our “virtual money scheme” did not work for the World,
I am not a fan of virtual money as a system, and you are right, it may fail us completely. It is still whats in operation at the moment though. The idea I guess behind virtual money systems with slight inflation built in is that it plays on the human conditions above, gives people something to strive for, to work towards, to make gains, etc. Can it work for every human fairly and equitably? It doesnt look like it can to me. Banks are the gatekeepers and have been creaming off for decades. I think thats clear to everyone now. Clearly as a species we will adopt a better system, whether we do that in 2050 or 205050 I dont know, but it will happen.
But moving from the system we have now to a new system wont be easy.
Tim> I am suggesting that re-capitalisation should ONLY occur THROUGH cheques to defaulting companies/homeowners, made payable to the banks.
Here is a simplified calc:
T=0, Loan: 100m
Bank: -100m (paying interest at 3%)
Purchaser: (asset of 100m) (paying interest at 4%)
Seller: +100m
T=1, Loan: 100m
Bank: -100m (bad debt of 40m) (paying interest at 3% on 100m)
Purchaser: (asset of 60m) (paying, if able, interest at 4% on 100m)
Seller: +100m
T=2, Loan: 100m
Bank: (receives cheque of 40m for partial write off) -60m
(paying interest at 3% on 60m)
Company: (asset of 60m)
(receives cheque fom Gov of 40m for partial write off,sends to bank)
(paying interest, if able, at 4% on 60m)
Seller: +100m
T=3, Loan: 100m
Bank: -60m (paying interest at 3% on 60m)
(has asset of 60m, but illiquid market)
Company: (stops paying interest, loses asset)
Seller: +100m
So, it doesnt matter if the Loanee (Company) gets the cheque who then sends it to the bank to write-off or if the bank gets the cheque directly and write it off. The only question would be who owns the underlying asset. It will go to the bank.
But banks dont have it all their own way in the above scenario. In fact they lose out too. How? They have to pay costs for the Gov cheque. They are left with an underperforming asset. They may have to write down more. In fact they are likely to lose more than the Company. The Company also loses. It had to pay interest on that loan for a while or its income was less than its costs. It loses but not by as much as perhaps it should.
The gainer is the Seller. Of course those that flipped may have been Sellers as well as Loanee Companies. Thats what happens in a pyramid scheme. People can get in and out several times.
One thing I think we need to think about seriously are clawbacks across the board. For those that made a mint, clawback taxes should be brought in for those that are wealthy enough to be able to pay it. The same goes for any employee who during the boom made huge bonuses based on the unsustainable model. Of course, there will be money gone out of the system. And it will have cycled into the economy.
I’m always amazed by people that ask where has the money gone. Its gone to every nook and cranny in our system. Every corner shop has benefited, every taxi man, every pizza place, many restaurants, art shops, the full A-Z, “everybody” selling something to somebody has gained by their extra employment based on the credit money.
But the gains and the now necessary pains wont be equal or equitable. That will be impossible to achieve. But we could bring in wealth taxes and specific clawbacks for those that flipped during the ‘frenzy’. This emergency budget is going to be interesting.
MK1
2 things occured to me this morning. The EuroZone experiment isn’t really working in its current form. It’s real test is how to handle a crisis yet member states are drifitng (or speeding) away from committments (especially borrowing) with no intervention. The ECB requires the cooperation of the respective central banks within the EU. In a time of crisis there’s little unity (enforced or otherwise). We’re seeing classic Eurocracy here of the kind that those who’ve worked with the commission are well familiar with. It’s not really bad intentions but diverse and diverging concerns that are the issue. For example if the French think they’ll suffer any lifestyle impairment because of the mistakes of the Irish banking system we’ll see riots. I don’t see any real EU solidarity nor a desire to achieve it. In that respect Lisbon II is a bit of a nonsense. Why rush in EU-wide social policy legislation when we haven’t yet fixed the most practical issue of financial cooperation and solidarity in a time of crisis.
The second was that we’re still not having real national debate about this crisis as we don’t have the figures available? It’s difficult to be constructive when the costs’s associated with the deficit are still unclear. For example I reckon many of us had believed that capital projects were going to be largely frozen but it turns out not to be the case. Vincent Browne seems convinced that the figures are available but if you take the official line, the government revises it’s thinking on the deficit and state of our banking system every month. Eventually, they may intersect with those of McWIlliams, Ahearne, Morgan Kelly and other economic commentators. The veneer needs to be lifted off the exchequer figures so the populace can understand the predicament and those who are willing and able can help solve what appears to be a perfect storm of economic problems.
MKI – Your analysis and assessment was very well put together ;
However : Your proposals won’t pull a string .
You are playing the clasical Time Zone I have been writing about for some time .My objections are essentially should you take back from those who earned their wealth equitably then you are veering to the Left ( Communism ) When Dev made his own Irish Economics he did not take from the British Landlords .Trust needs to be preserved and built upon and defeating that only brings about an uglier chaos and anarchy .We need New Brehon Laws Enforced and we must Adapt to the new Economics ahead of us .
Before Time and after Time of the Septic Tiger – we need to find that Code – Da Wu Yu Code
@JiohnAllen, you could be right. Mk1′s superb comment / suggestion should have been implemented before any of this happened. If I were to take a project management approach to this – being called in after the previous guy got fired because of major overruns and big budgetary issues the approach taken is
1) Look at committments. What you are owing. I beleiev this has yet to be properly established both in terms of size and due dates.
2) Look at priorities – We need security of Jobs and friends and influence. This identifies the REAL benefits we need to chaee
3) In the light of 1 & 2 above, Review all capital projects. Immediately Kill off all those that yield no benefit. Surprisingly that means most of the road/ big infra projects – they eat money and employ few people and right now add little value. Pointness putting a bigger engine into a car which does not have the same power requirement. Examine any projects (I know of a large number of green ones which are getting a pittance) and reallocate there. Go for projects with a high social/ collegiate/ international relevance/ innovation hit. We are spending/committing 7-15bn of roads/ metro etc. Move it to green/ pharma/micros manufacture.
4) Look at current OPEX spend based on updated CAPEX from 3) above. My guess is HSE needs to be tackled. Take out social welfare component and drive a horse and carraige thro’ the rest of it. Leave social welfare alone. See if education can be augmented. Review depts. Do we really need an Arts/ Culture dept? Also, be very careful of the large public admin component of the big capital projects. Also beware of a Fas Nua ( focused on “retraining” etc. they’ll make a mess of it)
5) Taxes…be very careful. We are trying to win friends and improve spend. Property tax is the fairest by far IMO. To do it fast, it may need to be a pole tax weighted by your current tax band. Do not get into admin and valuation.
I see there’s a site http://www.ideascampaign.ie being set up. Anyone know what that’s about?
The wealth that was made (or some of whats left of it) can be taxed now and reasonably equitably from this point forward. It wont clawback everything equitably, thats impossible as the horse has well and truly bolted, and there will be those that gained and moved stuff offshore, etc. Yet, as a country we can tax wealth and uber-wealth. Its not communism, its called Tax. Capitalism as practiced in most countries is not a tax-free system.
Here is an interesting article well worth a read:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2172
MK1 – there are fundamentals that cannot be changed in Tax Law and one of them is changing minds to tax in a earlier tax period and legislating for that in the current tax period – that is what you are saying and that is the same as a red rag to a bull and is definately inequitable in principle no matter how small the amount of tax you want to collect Some people might hold their wealth in Land but no cash for example.
@John Allen – I understand your sentiments John. But we can vigorously tax banks of wealth for new reasons. Rather than retrospectively taxing previous gains. That is what MK1 is pointing to, I believe. Aggresively targetting the current wealth, not the previous gains. That is what our tax commission SHOULD be focussing on.
A suggestion re the aprés-depression stage: -
In an attempt to strengthen our hand with multinationals present in Ireland or those who would choose us in the future, we can never compete in a race to the bottom on wages. Instead we can sell extra value into the package.
So what about our infrastructure, most particularly what Larry Edelson calls ‘blue gold’. http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/a-crisis-beyond-comprehension-3-29987
Pharamaceuticals demand the very best of water. incidentally, so do humans and animals for consumption. Why don’t we cop ourselves on and try and play to our previous strengths for what Ireland was known. I’m not saying clean, secure water is a direct revenue swap for previous activities. I’m saying its a part of the equation on our ‘input’ side that our government too seems blissfully unaware of. As Edelson puts it “The lack of fiscal spending on water, as I mentioned at the outset, is proof positive that the crisis is not getting the attention it deserves. And like most government actions, they often come in the form of too little, too late to do any good.” Wouldn’t this infrastructural work (desperately needed, as like Eugene Sheehy’s proverbial money-bucket, we’re pouring in one end and its leaking out the other!!!!) create a large amount of work for our builders. And be an investment that we need as a society. With untold benefits for attracting MNCs (and migrants etc) if we get ahead and do it first. Incidentally, it would be a plus for ourselves as well, as taxpayers. But that’s very selfish, to expect clean water when you turn a tap.
Question: – Has anyone been doing their JOB anywhere for the last 15 years in our regulatory bodies? If so, why are there so many major issues unresolved?
Anyway, before they start taxing us for water, perhaps clean it up, save some vulnerable lives and create some jobs?
Oops, quoting Larry edelson again on a separate issue. But, like quoting Jesus a few times a week, I think its an acceptable faux-pas.
Anyway…
On Global Wealth Report, Larry points to the coming devaluation of the G20 currencies and hence the world currencies at large, I presume.
Can the economists among us please indicate their thoughts on this possible scenario? I am not an economist. I’m trained in sociology and more recently strategic management. So I would love to hear your views as this turning point approaches. Is Trichet’s climbdown on interest rates anything to do with this? Preparatory?
http://www.globalwealthreport.com/the-changing-value-of-money/
Rather than liquidating assets 9even consumer articles like vehicles) going into a deflationary depression, what instead should one do? I know we should buy hard assets in advance, before this would occur? But consumable assets? Hold on to them?
Thank you
I think its time this forum was closed down. With immediate effect.
Today the first sprouts of recovery and boom were officially spotted online in Ireland: -
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice-centre/article.asp?sTagType=Residential&tagid=1137&ptagid=1143&newsid=2538&cmpid=news1005
Go forth and multiply my little Euros . . . .
If we are trying to get things rolling we need all the key people on board. Tax is a dangerous weapon as it hits too many important players – workers being one. Taxing wealth is tricky and maybe the only thing that can be done short term is work it via a property tax. Otherwise it flies out the country. Admin wise, it’ll too difficult to set up in time to do any good. The only reason the Gov are picking PAYE is cos it’s easy. Not many grey cells needed for that!
The easiest thing to do in a short time is cut spend and reduce obligations on those areas which really do not employ that many people. In other words we need a kitty and some cash flow.
Remember – we have little time to act and this is not the time to create mass uproar. I beleiev we need more time to work out what is taxable and fair.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a2pcVi73z0to&refer=uk
This looks interesting
Very interesting :-( Doesn’;t this mean though that anyone who was ‘good’ during profligate times will now be legally robbed if they are in cash? Am I reading that correctly?
Ruairi, I think so.
I agree regarding the euro. The thing with single currencies is that they only make sense as part of a fiscal union as well. This is becoming increasingly evident. The logic of the euro is that there must be much closer fiscal integration, or a federal state. I am personally not in favour of centralised power on such a scale and think we will need to find an orderly way to exit the single currency after the crisis abates.
With regard to the Keynesian point, I think it’s worth looking at so-called stimuli in more detail. History is against them, America was still in depression in 1940. The Keynesian expansion of the 1960s inevitably led to the stagflation of the 1970s. This is what will happen this time too. The Fed (& others) are currently inflating the money supply. This inflation has not led to price inflation due to the low volatility of money. This inflation is being partially used to prevent asset prices falling (mainly toxic debt), therefore the general price level will have to rise. Inflation is happening and it is inevitable that price increases will follow once it gets out.
Therefore we are returning to an era of inflation and high unemployment. Given that investment is not happening the increased money supply will run down inventories and prices will then rise. It’s inevitable, even Art Laffer thinks so:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuVlbXvTCFs&feature=related
David, you should read Hayek, he demolishes Keynes’ theories. The idea that saving is hoarded is wrong. It is invested in production and jobs created. We need to deleverage, save and get more for lower spending.
Falling prices are the antidote to deflation
http://mises.org/story/3296
The race to the bottom has started in earnest. First the Dollar, now the Sterling and Euro will be heading right after them.
I always wonder about the dynamic of devaluing currency. If everyone in a global group does it, does it really change anything if relativities in costs of exports remain the same? Taking a secondary school view of the situation, I can see China starting to dump their Dollars (I mean Treasury Notes/IOUs) to try a preserve their asset base. Oil / commodity prices start to soar – but between the main trading blocks that are qualtitatively easing – relativities remain the same.
Food, Energy and Raw materials will climb – forcing cost push inflation. This pushes up wages which diminishes personal debt. I am assuming interest rates remain stable for a while. After about 1 year you might see increased spending and then you may see the first signs of drops in unemployment.
The one thing I never see documented is the timing and lags. This for me is where the response is one of discontent and or upheaval.
Another observation is that Green Energy (cheap energy – let’s be honest) and Agrifood industries are key industries to be primed. Which causes me to question Ireland’s position on its NDP and it’s paltry inputs on Green initiatives and Pharma and Bio/Agri Tech. 7-15bn on large infra that is just transport is lunacy – for now.
I am far from expert in this but my reading of what the UK/US is doing is as follows.
Lots of banks have loaned money which never existed to people.
Lots of people lost lost of funny money which only ever existed as digits on a screen.
Lots of people have made funny money.
Nobody can tell which is real money or funny money. So the BOE/FED are creating more funny money to buy the losses… I guess the ‘assets’ they buy up will be quietly burned, I don’t know.
So far so good. After a suitable period where no money is exchanged which has not yet committed to being exchanged (maturation dates on stuff, X days credit etc), some net winners and losers will start to emerge… Depending on the vehicle, that maturation date will vary. Were going through this period right now where people who think they are funny money winners are holding tight.
The winners those who have made net funny money will try to convert their winnings to real money (cash). which then I guess impacts on the value of real money…
The questions I have
1) timing….
2) Is the above a ‘good enough’ description of what’s happened.
3) Assuming it is, how will the creditor nations (China) etc react….If some shitty hedge fund ends up as a net winner of 1 trillion, I guess they wont be happy that it took a billion chinese a decade to win the same amount
Anyone who understands this stuff, Please correct
Garry, (the man who gave us the IBM visualisation – thank you),
“Lots of people have made funny money.”
I’ll bet that those people still have, and will keep, that money. They robbed us, in a way.
Philip, I do not believe that FF or the Greens, truly, want greenn energy.
My reason is this: I am, currently installing solar-hot-water; I checked out the grant and found the ratio of grant to VAT to be 600:547.
So ….. this “Green government” is, really giving you a “grabt” of 53 euro.
I went and did it, anyway – without their “grant”, and got it done at a better price.
Furrylugs, what do you say? (I will show you the figures).
Farming’s the way…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXNE9N-4Ye0&feature=related
Real Assets over paper shuffling
Philip,
I’ve had a look at the Ideas campaign website. It looks constructive. There’s a time limit by which they’d like ideas submitted, and then a period during which some “wise men” (my phrase) will consider and decide which are most useful.
Ideas chosen will be sent to government.
The list Tim has been looking after could indeed be submitted.
One feature of the ideas campaign that caught my eye was that there was only one name: the person who set up The Sunday Business Post.
I hope she’ll publish the other names. There’s something on TV this evening about this initiative, so it looks as if she has some good media contacts.
Perhaps this helps?
Hi Paul,
personally I don’t see why the ideas can’t be submitted directly from here to government. Via Shane Dempsey or indeed through Redser himself.
I believe the ideascampaign website is simply a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. This forum has been that very hotbed of ideas (courtesy of David’s prompts) for a number of years now.
Not being precious about it, but I don’t see why Tim would need to submit our hard work to another entity who is no nearer power than David, and in the process shortchange david’s hard work and long proven patriotism to the Irish people.
A website is just a website. Unless they have real-world connections, which I’d be surprised would outleverage david’s at this stage, then its just another forum diluting effects.
Not sure I’m the best person to submit something. The only reason I emailed the minister is that I had a cogent argument in this case (which I’m not going into). Personally, I don’t understand why the minister hasn’t called in DMcW and some others and begged them to help us out of this mess. They can have all the junk bonds they can eat :-)
This website is great (like the new look) but I simply don’t have the time to follow another one. I also hope that whatever suggestions are made are clearly attributed and not passed off as some fantastic innovation that came out of a cumann meeting. To this end we might need to capture thematic content better on this site. I thought the web master was suggesting a discussion forum a few weeks back?
Although I can see pros/cons to this as we may forget about our host and disappear up our own armchair economist transums !!
Shane Dempsey, I consider your posts to be very valuable, indeed, and cannot, for the life of me, imagine why you would NOT be the best person to submit a suggestion to our “leaders”.
I find that your grasp of the situation is evident; your articulacy is evident; your nobility-of-equitability is evident.
Why not you?
Hi shane.
Can i be so bold as to suggest that the gov are not
interested in any solutions that do not work for their
own hidden vested interests.
Question for all bloggers.
Does it not strike anyone rather strange that
the abundance of good ideas which if implemented
would work are not been discussed in an open way
in the towers of power.
Maybe the solution they are proposing is to deal with
something other than what they are saying.
For example, if anyone would like to put tis in their
pipe and smoke it today…
I suggest there is a blatant CASH GRAB been activated.
CASH is the new currency.
Banks need it fot the savers coming in pulling their cash.
The march/april budget is raising cash for the bailout for
the banks to stuff their safe’s with. I suggest it is not
for deficits or debts etc.
What’s worrying me about the recapitalisation is that’s it’s a misnomer. The Irish banks can’t seem to raise funds on the markets to the government is having to do it for them. It’s a bit like a parent going guarantee on a loan for a delinquent teenager whose pretending to want the cash for college but actually wants to equip his student flat with a 50″ plasma tv.
Thiis was not the stated purpose of the capital injection. It’s not a sustainable use of the money as it means that the state alone has to prop up the banking system. We can’t do this as part of the EuroZone. We’re simply too small and have too little control. Our risk is a multiple of GDP as described by Malcolm. Imagine that!!! In the best case this is a “cash grab” as that would mean that the banks weren’t trading at a monthly deficit right now. Even those who believe this, reckon that it’s only a matter of time due to economic contraction and the gathering pace of interbank debt servicing committments on Non-performing Loans.
So on to the officially nationalised bank (as opposed to the other pretenders). It is VITAL that we understand what’s happening with Anglo. If the government is aware Anblo is losing money every day then we need to know. Am I the only one who feels that the government is exposing too little about the public finances at this critical time?
Lastly, you heard it here first. While other commentators were predicting the end of the tiger, very few were predicting this kind of catastrophe. Very few suggested the governments figures were crap and we’d need another budget. There’s better economic commentary on this blog then you’ll get in the national press. Many professional commentators seem bereft of ideas and insight. The idea that there’s a public forum for debating economic policy in Ireland with many passionate and knowledgable individuals is an excellent thing and, I believe, a unique occurence in the short history of the state. We’re not being given the figures as our leaders rightly fear scrutiny at home and abroad.
Ruairi, I agree; there is no “need” to submit anywhere else. The impetus was YOURS and, I believe and I hope that I have remained faithful to that. I have gathered (what I consider to be) YOUR call for the “5s” in one area of this site – the article in response to which you made the “call”. I consider that appropriate. It’s HOME is here. It IS David’s site, after all, though I expect that he is glad we are here and might call it “ours – in – a – way” (though I will not presume to speak for him).
I must declare that I am very gratified to be associated with the “5s”, because I, truly, believe that it is “GOOD”; not, necessarily in content, but in “intent” (though it’s probably both).
Deco, don’t worry – it’s not a bad pride.
Ruairi, I have done three things, only, with the “5s”: 1) I have gathered them together; 2) I have told (and will continue to tell everyone I can about them – including last weekend in Citywest) anyone who will listen, abot them; 3) I have sent them to PaulOMahony’s Facebook.
The facebook may draw support – I don’t know. If it does, Paul has undertaken to re-direct people here to David’s site, because he does not want to “dilute” what happens here. This is important.
Ronan has promised a more suitable “HOME” for the “5s” here, on David’s site, anyway. I think that this is a great idea, and it helps to organise the content.
However, it is open to anyone on the internet to copy and paste this content anywhere they wish – there is no intellectual copyright software in effect on this site. It is not policed in that manner.
What harm, by the way, if the “5s” proliferate on other sites to inspire/inform/encourage others who do not know David’s site? None, I suspect; plus, in terms of link-backs, it may attract more people here, to the HUB-of-the-5s”.
I think that is progress and growth.
I am REALLY gaining a sense that a wonderful synergy is developing here, among all contributers, David and his articles, Ronan and his system, MK1 and his teaching, JohnAllen and his astr-sometimes-very-terrestrial-input, Furrylugs and his common-sense and humour, Deco and his common-sense-socialism/morality, Lorcan and his economic intellectualism, pera and her no-nonsense questions and insights; Dilly, with similar; BrendanW with his challenges and frequent bile; PaulOMahony, with his gracious encouragement of everyone; IreinExile with his Verisimilitude; OriginalEd with his wisdom; wills, with his presentation of the scheme, …….. all (please don’t be upset if I missed you, rather, STAND OUT more, if you can) are REALLY important and every ONE keeps this excellent and diverse and productive forum vibrant.
We are all different, but we are all united in attempting to improve our country.
We all care, or we would not bother – apathy is not a problem here.
We are all thinking; this is the ultimate in importance.
If you always do what you’ve always done, you will always get what you’ve always got.
We are trying to do something different. We are right.
Let’s continue and allow anyone who wants to, put our ideas on there site and “spread-the-word” as far and wide as it can go.
But the germination is here; the HOME is here; and MY loyalty is here. Thank you all, so much, for continuing to inspire me.
Hi Tim.
Well said, bravo.
Paul, Our inclusive group of “idea-generators” developed organically from people who are genuinely interested in thinking and sought out David’s site and decided to stay and think. There is no nepotism or cronyism in it and no-one makes a profit from it – even David (some advertising, maybe, with much higher “hits” than a year ago, but he has to pay for this site, somehow.) Book-sales, maybe; but that is CERTAINLY not why David has allowed us to use this site in the manner in which we do – he gives us free-reign. Some cynics have suggested that it is because he want to glean our ideas for his articles/books, etc., So what? PROUD is what I would be if DMcW used an idea of mine for the greater good.
The point is, I think, that valuable people will find us and have done so. You are one such. The best of them, having found us, will stay and contribute, because they will see very quickly that this is the place to be/to think/to help.
Incidentally,
Would yis all take some interest in David’s ads and sponsors and give a decent skin a break :-)
Where’s the entrpreneurial spirit?
Never mind those ‘pretender’ websites. This forum is the real economy.
Ruairi,
I didn’t mean to recommend the ideas website. This is a great forum. A lot of good, skilled and knowledgeable people are giving it their best shot. If it’s an education for me, I feel sure it would be an education for many others.
But I like seeing the emergence of plenty of places where Irish people get involved in conversations about the future of our country.
Where are all the FG people thinking?
Are there any Labour thinkers?
However, the sheer volume of stuff on here… what are we to do about it all.
I haven’t the time to assemble it into a book. Nor have I time to edit it for readability: I wish everyone would use paragraphs, and write for readers.
There may be good useful ideas being swapped on other sites, and around kitchen tables. I’m sure there are. Let’s not get so full of ourselves that we forget that.
I’ve noticed that people are better at expressing their own ideas than than supporting and developing the ideas of others. I wonder if anyone else has been thinking that?
I wish there were more marches.
I love twittering.
Best regards Paul,
I’m no boss here.
Just protective of David from many of the jumped-up told-u-so platforms beginning to emerge. They were silent until September 08, down to the last man.
I had suggested Shane Dempsey for instance, just as a general example of someone who had breached the ditch and made 1st contact with politicos. Tim too etc. From the inside.
Tonight, I commended Pat Rabbitte for his brave duty in outing strange dropping of serious drugs charges. I don’t believe we thank the great men among us often enough. In doing so, I also pointed him to our collection of ’5 ideas’. Pat has honour and intelligence. A valuable man in opposition.
Tim, your work is sterling. I wish Brendan W had the same overall respect for others and spent less time looking at the 5% he preceives wrong; as against seeing your true value here. My family was hardcore Civil War FF. Rooted. Ideology means something. Anyone who listened to Pat Kenny’s moving interview with the descendants of 1916 (re HQ building on O’Moore St) could agree that these men cared deeply about the Irish people. Trade unionists, teachers etc. Yes, FF front bench has led us down the merry path. NO, the grassroots are not ultracapitalists. Yes, many of us have turned away and embraced slightly more visible paths of social consciences, such as Labour, Democratic Left and SF. We await the proofs of our switched allegiances.
Ruairi, thanks. What do you think about proliferating the “5s”, after reading my post? Are you still protective of them?
Ruairi, wow! Though focussed on the “5s” when I read that post the first time, I see now what you mean. Cryptic, but understood, Sir. This is why you had the “wherewithall” to suggest the “5s”.
I get it. Thank you.
Mt Wordsworth and Dail comments seem to have been removed. Sincere apologies if anyone has been offended by them.
Thanks Paul for the positive comment.
They’re at the back/bottom Malcolm :)
Ronan (webmaster) has reversed the order of contributions and we can vote on reverting to the old way or this current temporary measure (no bias there).
Just like eating in is the new eating out, growing your own veg is the new foodie boast (ask Tom Doorley, gimme a break Tom?) and taxing texts is the new goat / hearth tax.
Thank God I offloaded my goats.
Ruari: ‘Fraid they’re not there any more, at least on my browser’s copy of the Comments. Seems they’ve suffered the fate of Monty Python’s parrot.
—Interesting.
Tim: I was perplexed about what McWilliams is doing swanning over in Las Vegas in our hour of need— so shortly after his inexplicable trip to Réunion? Who else can afford to take their eye off the ball in times like these? I’d quoted Wordsworth’s sonnet beginning:
David, thou shouldst be with us at this hour:
Ireland hath need of thee: she is a fen
Of stagnant waters: altar, sword, and pen, etc.
That response was included in Comments for a couple of hours, then it disappeared, as did my comment about the poorly attended economics debate in the Dail. Oh well—just wondered?
Malcolm, What, pray tell, could anyone find “objectionable” about Wordsworth? Sorry, just arrived and missed the post.
Wordsworth is a daffodil worrying, cloud bothering lightweight.
But I don’t think that’s the Wordsworth Macolm is talking about.
I’m pretty agnostic as to the order of posts, but is there any chance that we can have a bigger font please Ronan?
Two pieces of optimism to keep everyone feeling that slowly, this country is fixing itself intellectually.
1. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/watchdogs–investigators-descend-on–nationwide-1661674.html
The regulator is now investigating INBS. In Ireland this is progress. In every other country, this is what regulators do, and are supposed to do. Hopefully, they will make an assessment about the real worth of Irish Nepotism Based Society – before the state helps out this crooked little institution. This might mean that the time when the regulator only visited Bank Head Offices to pick up tickets to the K-Club or Landsdowne Road is over. We can only hope.
2. Michael O’Leary had a press conference today and let loose with some very sharp comments. His language suggested that he was skipping Lent.
He ridiculed the Minister for Jollies, Martin Cullen. Considering all the things that could have been thrown at Cullen, and the nature of previous abuse thrown at the Drumcondra Ditherer, and Mary O’Rourke, Cullen got off very easy. But Cullen would want to watch out – Cullen is probably a target from now on. And nobody ridiculed Cullen in a fair while.
MOL ridiculed David Begg. Which is fair enough. Begg is a boss in his own right, and not really a worker anymore !!
MOL then did the one thing that even giftdrub cannot do on the radio – he sneered the relevance of IBEC and Turlough O’Sullivan. IBEC, and ICTU are full of their own importance – acting like some sort of alternative government – and on occassions like the real government. Both are unelected and represent a compromise to the democratic process.
Ditherer did escape any criticism. But he did make a swipe at Aer Rianta – which is staffed with loads of ditherer’s cronies. MOL called for the scrapping of the Dublin Metro (busses are cheaper). And he threw in a sneer at the tree huggers as well.
This was all on TV3. I imagine on RTE this sort of thing would be banned. The Irish Times will report the event some time in the middle of next week – and not on the front page.
Hopefully we will have more open discussion about such matters. I feel liberated at the thought that peope can just talk about muppets like Martin Cullen in an open frank manner to the world at large. As a sign of appreciation for such bluntness, direct manner, and plain honesty – I must make sure I will switch back to RyanAir. Though if Willie Walsh is brought back to Ireland and made Taoiseach, then I will go back again to Aer Fungus.
Now, if really want an education into how open Ireland is as a society, and how honest the media is -
watch O’Leary on TV3 – and compare how the rest of the media covers his outbursts.
Deco , my good man what you saw with MOL was just more solid ground works been laid as also this evening Mrs O Toole launched on RTE her ideascampaign.ie site for ‘the ordinary people to give their opinion’….I can only deduce from this launch the people on this site must be some how then extraordinary.
Maybe I smoked too much of Hollands finest in the past yet I am starting to feel in the air now a desire for change and leadership a new start as all even the children in the class rooms know F.F have made a big mess while they also see how clueless their brothers and friends F.G. are ,
Prehaps the knowledge economy will be us collectively clever enough to throw out our revolutionary parties of the past ( they suggest it ,almost ever day telling us what has happened in the past , lets move forward from here ! ) .
Tim your welcome to stay in F.F trying to change it , but you’ll end up like the last owner of a dido bird.
The Media played a Big part in the P.R. spin , now TV3 has to change direction and get the people behind it so they can fight the Beast that RTE has become ….bring on Paddies day..oh and on that , what will Paddy Power give you for BOI been worth 10cent that international trading day ?
BrendanW, maybe so, buddy, maybe so.
Ronan, I had to Take OFF my glasses to reaed that blue writing of BrendanW’s comment. (the time thing)
What is that about? Do we, “over 40s” have to contend with the abilities of the young ones? ( Well, I suppose, we DO, but that is beside the point – experienceVyouth andf all that)
(if so, I will, or course, adjust, but, if you could make the font a bit bigger it might help.)
I know that we can do it ourseleves, by [view], [zoom in] and by [view], [text size], but, should we have to?
Some of us are older people and our eyes are beginning to fail us.
Please help, if you can?
Tim,
Sorry, I would hate to be accused of being ageist. I forget sometimes that not everyone has a 22″ monitor on their desk! I will work on a more readable font size right away.
I am a bit gutted that I only heard of ideascampaign.ie today – I have only just finished preparing a new section of the site with the exact same purpose.
In any event, I am making a beta release* of the “Your Ideas” section of the site today: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/your-ideas. If anyone would like to submit their thoughts on what we need to do to breathe a bit of oxygen into the economic carcass, please feel free to submit them there.
The idea is a basic one at the moment: submit your idea, I check it is ok to publish, then others can vote it either up or down (once). Over time, the best thinking should bubble up to the surface.
If anyone has any suggestions or ideas on how to improve this, please drop a note to webmaster@davidmcwilliams.ie.
Many Thanks
Ronan
* beta release is an IT guy’s way of saying he has probably made a bunch of mistakes but can’t be bothered checking right now.
@ webmaster / Tim / Paul O’Mahony,
I think there is no harm in submitting ideas anywhere we can but I really feel that the best way of rewarding David McWilliams for sticking his neck out on many finer points, plus battlecrys and war-crys, is to improve on the structure here and keep the best minds here (or at leasdt the ones who have been here).
I genuinely David (and thus Ronan) is owed loyalty for giving us somewhere to 1. vent our frustrations and 2. get past the anger stage and begin to build ideas.
No one should forget the role played by David McWilliams / Shane Ross / George Lee etc when this crisis is over (or when the storm has passed and we’re left with our ‘Baile New Orléans’. No more than they should let the instigators off the hook.
I do not pretend to know the finer details of the people behind Ideascampaign.ie but what I do know, from a thirst over the last decade for a ‘sane’ view of Ireland’s economic health, that there were literally only 1 or 2 ‘voices in the wilderness’. Do we dilute their social power now? I will not.
Decco ,no surprises with INBS under the spotlight,as I pointed out earlier they did trigger the alarm bells in 6 of the 9 years from 1998-2008,showing over 20% in real growth,second only to Anglo.I like to suggest to the Auditors while their in there to run the sliderule over some of mickey fingers MEZZANINE FINANCE DEALS.Decco do you think by printing in capitals it make it sound louder?.Fingers is a right little Hitler by all accounts,not nearly as much of a smoothie as our Seanie.
jim, yes, I think CAPITALS work as shouting, or emphasis. I am afraid I do not understand your reference to “Fingers”.
Will you educate me, please?
E-mail your ould FF buddy Frank Fahey, he’s a whizz kid when it comes to property deal’s or so I hear.Im sure he could walk you through the high risk lending associated with mezzanine finance.That MAN’S A GENIOUS HE COULD EVEN GET YOU A HAIRCUT IN RUSSIA………sorry I seem to be shouting again for emphasis.Just poking fun Tim no offence intended ;-) ;-)
Jim, none taken; though very angry with FF, I have a sense of humour about it, too.
On a more serious note,the handlers and spin doctors in FF are really desperate to distract attention away from Anglo et al.First the ham fisted attempt with the old peoples medical cards,then special needs children,and the latest is the scrapping of plan for carers (covered on prime time tonight).Word to the wise “tell us about all these shell company’s that were borrowing big” sorry sorry I did’nt catch that last bit Credit Default Swaps for what did you say your breaking up,what’s that did you say Caymen or Cavan,whats that about a ponzi pension scheme,it invested in what…youve a bad signal there in the Dublin docklands,a lot of interference,ok gotcha,there running out of ex-board members or x-boxes,no no the Bank is looking after the virtual money and the paper trail.Jasus there must be a lot of lines crossed here.I cant make sense of this conversation,who’s talking to who?good man willie,remember mortgages are for the little people…sure wont they find work when they change from conveyencing to reposessions,silver lining willie.no no listen 5 billion in capital projects will keep them ticking over until things pick up again,cash flow willie,,ah jasus willie I gave you Euros going to Poland and you changed it to the local rubbish,Ill ring seanie tomorrow and see if he can cover it on the Interest rate swaps.Whats that a bunch of ten,no not that ten,latvia,croatia,,,whats wrong with buying Irish willie anyway its only 100 million,let the fu.kers go.Its amazing what you pick up on ham radio these day’s.If you could only make sense of it.;;;-)))
Loonie ( Friday ) Moments – Have you ever tried to lift up water with your fingers ?If you did or even if you try now you will find that it will not move .Is it because your fingers cannot hold it or is the water too heavy ( even a small amount ) ?Water is essenially a cohesive substance and is essentially sticky and it prefers to remain together .In other words it does not like change .Lets say if you got your powerful vacuum cleaner and sucked it in you will see it will move because the suction is strong and catches all the water together.Now you can relate the moon pull with a vacuum cleaner and this is what is happening at the moment until wednesday next.
So what loonie moments did we see yesterday .I think the best example was MOL using considerable expletives about people when trying to make what he was trying to say were business points .Astrology would tell us that he did not say this without a good reason other than the reason he tells you .Because he has done this in ‘these moments of NOW ‘ he is hiding a hidden agenda . Perhaps even desperate .MOL is a Pisces ( a water sign ) and moon pulls do influence him greatly and I believe his rationality left his brain dead so he was ‘on the Pull’.
His actions I believe will only demean his firms ability to succeed yesterday in these turbulent times .Good business points need to be delivered rationally.And toilet charges ?Lets call it a MOL moment .If you ever get close to him you will see that his eyes are always watery and holds the persona of a sulking child that always wants his way and will do anything to do it .Dispite all of that he is a very gentle soul and butter would melt in his mouth .