Now that even last year’s cheerleaders have accepted that the Irish boom was more or less ‘hot air’, inflated by easy credit, there is little point in going over the rights and wrongs of what happened. The case is clear: an economically challenged government, perniciously influenced by the interests of the housing lobby, blew it. The entire Irish episode will be studied internationally in years to come as an example of how not to do things.
Was it a well-orchestrated conspiracy by a few very wealthy people? Was it simply mass plutocratic hysteria or was it appalling governance at every level of the Irish state from the Financial Regulator, the planners and the Department of Finance? Maybe, it was a combination of all three, with a bit of half-assed ideology stitching the fabric together. One other thing is clear: the media -much of them now baying for blood -w ere as culpable as any other influential sector of our society. The media, which should have been critical and alert to the threats to our prosperity, caved in and believed the hype.
We are now seeing the pathetic revisionism of many who are mouthing platitudes such as: ‘‘No one could have foreseen this’’ or ‘‘Everyone knew it couldn’t last’’. Well, hold on, people did foresee it, some people did forecast the crash and warned that it would be so calamitous as to knock the country back a generation, but we were ridiculed at the time -by the political elite, the financial cabal and, more egregiously, by our sycophantic colleagues in the media who are allegedly paid to analyse.
As we head into the new year, is there anything we can do in Ireland to make sure that we are never again beguiled by a portfolio of over-valued council houses, apartments in the Algarve, blacked out Jeeps and self-congratulation?
A good place to start is with the Financial Regulator. Doubtless, the incumbent regulator is on his way out, so what should the new one do to make sure we are not entrapped by property again?
If we examine the real accelerator of the property mania, we can see that the crucial problem was the lending policies of the banks, which stood to gain enormously from property price increases.
The banks allowed their balance sheets to play tricks on them. As property prices rose, the underlying collateral, which underpinned their property lending, became progressively debased. It is this very fragility of collateral that is now hammering them. The fragile collateral, which up until the top of the cycle was driving profits, is now the hazardous waste that is driving up losses.
The crucial mistake made by the banking system was to think that the market price was an accurate reflection of value. During a bubble, this is never the case. Equally in the bust, now that prices are falling over a cliff, the plummeting market forces prices to overshoot on the downside. This price overshoot means that credit will contract further as banks rein in lending. This will cause prices to fall further and ensure that bad loans will be worse than they need to be.
Therefore, we have a systemic problem that is so obviously deleterious to any economic recovery. Are we going to do nothing and become hostage to a flaw in the system or should we make the most obvious change to lending practices that could hasten the recovery and ensure that this boom-bust carry on is consigned to history?
The problem is that picking moments in an economic cycle to gauge the value of collateral either inflates the boom or accelerates the bust. So why pick moments at all? Why not use a moving average of the value of land over a 20-year period to assess the real long-term value of collateral? By using a simple moving average against which to lend, we eliminate the lending madness that leads to a boom/ bust cycle in the first place.
If we had done something like this in Ireland over the past decade, we would never have had our housing boom. Prices would have increased gradually because lending would have increased gradually and ultimately the pace of house price inflation would have been determined by the rate of inflation and developments in the rental market.
If we were to take the long-run average price of houses as collateral as the basis for lending, the property boom would not have happened.
More interestingly, if we instigated such a lending policy now, it would mean that the extent of price falls would be significantly curtailed. As things stand, Irish property prices are likely to fall by another 50 per cent from here, with development land liable to fall by even more.
More worryingly, with the current lending system, these falls will go on for many years, contributing to higher unemployment, emigration and leading to an unprecedented explosion in government debt, with attendant higher taxation. The main reason for this, quite apart from the post-boom adjustment that has to take place in the economy, is that the collateral model that underpins lending and thus monetary policy is not right. The monetary trap has been sprung and Ireland is caught in it.
No matter how low interest rates go, we will still be trapped because deflation is making people postpone their buying decisions as they believe (rightly) that the price of everything, including houses, is falling. Why buy now when you will get the stuff cheaper next month?
Ultimately, deflation corrodes an economy and a society more than inflation ever could, and we in Ireland must avoid this at all costs. At some stage, we need to change things. We might need prices to fall another bit from here to become more competitive, but it’s time to put a stop to this. We need to call a halt.
If the new Financial Regulator has any wit, this idea would be introduced overnight. In fact, it should become part of the global solution to the financial crisis. Unfortunately, in Ireland, the new regulator is likely to be dredged from the same Central Bank/Department of Finance/ IFSR Agene pool, which does not inspire any confidence.
A little bit of hard thinking -rather than the same policies and people who got us into this mess -is what Ireland needs. A 20-year moving average of land prices as the basis for collateral is the way forward. We have no time to waste.
Hi Lorcan.. be careful not to sit on the point before you see it.
Waxy
Heh Heh.
Priceless.
Waxy, my fellow aurally challenged friend, obfusactory dialectics are rabidly devoured here.
Now, Brian Lenihan turned round and said tonight that ” Sumting muzt be dun”. Classic. Brian, me dear boy, thats your job.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0106/1230936700603.html
The degree of realism out and about in the populace is to our credit. To be fair to “b” and I know he’s angry, the level of complete intellectual shite apparent in our elected leaders is staggering.
And before someone corrects me on “obfusactory”, I’m dyslectic after two brandies.
ALLEN,,,,,,,,where are ye?? That thing on RTE tonight was twaddle. The code still holds sway.
Furry, you are, I take it, related perhaps to Waxy?
Not at all Ire_
This page cannot take any more aural infestation.
furrylugs – I was disapointed what i saw in ‘blood of the irish’ the programme only offered misplaced exagerated graphics with sprinkles of facts – at best it was an attempt by kids on the block who got paid well to confuse us.We were taught at school that the Celts spoke gaelic before they arrived in Ireland – that is not true .Gaelic ( Atlantean ) arrived with the Phoenicians .
stilton friedman – i dont wish to promote astrology or convince you about it and the net is not a good place to attempt that – i know i am good at it and in person what i say can be understood easier – the book da wu yu code was written purely from coded astrological facts with no agenda or plan – it is possible to be more descriptive with series of coded images that can give direction for next 100 years I would love to make the time to do it someday.This science is not new and Gaelic ( Atlantean ) is full of astrological terms and mindsets .If you want to observe something objectively you can do that from analysing the mood of this site on 10th 11th and 12th of Jan 2009 and also those who you live/work close with ( watch out for aches and pains then and broken items and weather ) .The word ‘extreme’ would seem apt at that moment .
For the past twenty years or so, the numbers on the dole have been mostly static. Not because they have been employed and moved on. Where another different cohort joins and so on. No, the numbers have stayed the same and within the same communities.
This is an example of planning Irish style from education through to housing and employment.
You would have thought that they would have learned from the log-jam that was the Taxi plates. When barristers were buying up the plates for investment, believing that anything Licensed was set in stone. It is the same with the Pubs, where one of the very few ideas of MacDowell did not have me spitting feathers.
Planning in this Island is based on 200 year old ideas on estate management. It scuppers all and any forward movement, both with economic and social development. The HSC -if done correctly- might have crushed some of that old foolishness. And regardless of what you think of P_PARS it bloody well should have worked. But more, it should have put steel into the spine when it did not.
Planning, when the GAA can sell for vast gelt inner city/town green areas.
Planning, when schools, but what schools.
Planning, you would have to say we do not really like the idea. It is thought to interfere with the independence.
I’m waiting eagerly for b’s response.
I think Mister Beverly Flynn and the need to keep her sweet with her 41 grand is all the evidence we need to see that having a brass neck in the face of every citizen is how things are planned here.
FF need her vote and she knows that. We the public have to shut up and pay up.
All of the “planning” is done for the benefit of the party. Nothing else counts. Actual need and the public are secondary to the game.
The civil service is run along the same lines. Self preservation is the name of the game.
Things need to change but they won’t unless we are forced so far into a corner the people revolt.
“We are now seeing the pathetic revisionism of many who are mouthing platitudes such as: ‘‘No one could have foreseen this’’ or ‘‘Everyone knew it couldn’t last’’. Well, hold on, people did foresee it, some people did forecast the crash and warned that it would be so calamitous as to knock the country back a generation, but we were ridiculed at the time -by the political elite, the financial cabal and, more egregiously, by our sycophantic colleagues in the media who are allegedly paid to analyse.”
Case in point from the Evening Herald of March 23, 2006: http://www.flickr.com/photos/woesinger/2315930914
Ha! the evidence! well spotted.
Dude,
>the point I am making is that the goverment, the banks, the builders, and home owners all want house prices to remain artificially high
Unfortunately, you are absolutely correct.
I seriously question if there is a single member of the cabinet (or the building industry, or even the bankers) who has ever read even a basic book on economics.
If they had, they would realise that there is literally nothing that they can do to stop house prices falling, and that spending time and money trying will just drag the correction out over a longer period of time, and so do more damage to the economy.
This was the first book on ecomonics I ever read: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Bluffers-Guide-Economics-Bluff-Guides/dp/1903096464 . It took about 30 mins to read, was easy to understand, and left me with a better grasp of economics than our government seems to have.
VincentH, “And regardless of what you think of P_PARS it bloody well should have worked. But more, it should have put steel into the spine when it did not.”
P-pars was always destined to failure because its function was predicated upon the erroneous notion that the “productivity” of a nurse can be measured. It cannot.
Even now, when the free-market, globalisation, profits-up-wages-down approach has proven a COMPLETE failure, it seems that the “going forward, bla, bla, bla” speakers are still clinging to the notion that a “business model” can be applied to a vocation.
It cannot.
Tim. that is as might be, with reference to the productivity. But surely, one standard basic system from which tweaks can be made is not beyond the ken. The premise behind LEO was that all the Lyons Tea Shops had a cost per cup of tea, but that each shop had different prices depending on where that shop sat.
At the moment, in the HSC no one has any clue, and they just go back to the well when their bucket is empty.
The software solution that is the basis of PPARS has been successfully installed right across Europe. No mention of any of the scandals – or the cost overruns that existed here.
Minister Harney gave the consultancy companies (I think it was Andersen Consulting) a blank cheque. It started at €27 Million, then went upwards over 60 M, then over 100, and eventually when the bill hit 220, somebody asked ‘what is going on here ?’
Then we wondered what had been achieved for this amount of money. We found out that people had been given the wrong wages, that there were discrepencies everywhere, and that the project was being staffed by underexperienced people. And that their bosses brought the inexperienced consultants to have regular parties (alcohol on tap, I presume). Therefore the consultancy company had cheap labour. And could charge whatever they like.
PPARS was parked for a few weeks. I don’t know where it stands now. It should never have happened. And, to my knowledge it only happened here. We have an HSE is still operating as a system of fiefdoms. There is massive politics. Only at the front line are there people capable of making decisions. It seems that there are unqualified, disinterested people all over the place (as a result of politics, and nepotism). And then when there is a squeeze it hits the front line. None of the protected insiders get the him, because the political ramifications. Prof Drumm has surrounded himself with cronies who are absolutely useless and who operate like a political network within the HSE. And there is a substantial PD element in the HSE management ranks. Hilarious considering the PD ideological preference for private sector hospitals – the individual PDs themselves would rather work for the state, and rely on cronies to protect them from having to deal with ‘the marketplace’.
David. I think your next article should explore what actually happens when the IMF pulls the plug on a country? Do they roll into town in limos, get ushered into Government Buildings where they hand over a note stating “the game’s up” to a disbelieving government. Or is it just a simple phone call from their plush offices in New York to the Bond Markets saying that country is a busted flush?
I know I’m being facetious with my examples but in all seriousness, I would like to know what to expect. The Next election isn’t till 2012 and I don’t expect our lads to be allowed to continue their wasting of other people’s money till then!
I propose that we all gtfo of this country while the going’s good. A benevolent dictatorship, democracy in name only, ala Singapore, is the only way we could become strong. But that will never happen, so just leave and watch it burn from afar. There are too many vested interests to fight, the media, the public sector, the unions…you’d never have a chance. You’re talking about changing the whole cultural ethos, and the only way to do that is from the top.
Shane Dempsey -there was a time in 1999, when any incolvent company could add dot com to it’s name, and it got private sector funding. Now we have a parallel phenomenon in Irish banks, and the state borrowing money to keep them going-going nowhere. Maybe Waterford Crystal should be named Waterford Crystal Bank ? Then Lenihan would have to include them in his ‘those banks were orphans to the world’ appeal. The whole thing is getting stupid. The Irish Times may have already endorsed Lenihan to be the next leader of Fianna Fail (something the IT rarely does), but for the rest of us he is a calamity. Waterford Crystal produce something useful, Irish managed financial institutions produce headaches, lies, deceit, flawed business models, and sponsorship for golf/rugger clubs. It is interesting in the Formula 1 season, the number of trophies presented that are Waterford Crystal.
The cost to the economy of saving some of these banks does not justify the effort. Acording to Phoenix Magazine, ANIB have 73 bn out on loans to the property sector. Will they even get half that back. I don’t have much confidence in PTSB, and it’s aggressive liberal loans policy in the expensive suburbs. Are either of these two turkeys necessary for the real economy to function ?? I doubt that they would be even missed by the majority of people. Even if four of the six fail, we will still have AIB, NIB, ACC/Rabo, the credit unions, An Post, all in a good position. BOI has not been forced to sell it’s overseas assets – so the Irish taxpayer is subsidising them also. This is ridiculous. What is Lenihan doing about this – once again nothing ?
Irish Industry is on the line. It took generations to build up Irish Industry. The taxpayer had to pay for all the tax breaks, the industrial estates, the universities, etc.. We need our factories. Our workers need factories. Our factory workers want to work – unlike high flying banking executives who prefer to play golf.
We need Dell, Waterford Crystal, Tara Mines (the latest big employer to be in trouble), etc.. These are the backbone of the Irish economy. We need industry far more than Dublin 4 bankers. Merkel will castigate German bankers, but will do everything to protect industry. Same is occurring in America. Yes, even in America, Detroit is now more important than Wall Street. But in dear old Ireland, we have idiots like Dan Boyle who get it wrong way around. What have the Green Party got against industry ?? That other idiot Ryan is doing nothing about the cost of electricity being charged to Irish factories ?? He is sitting on his hands, while every factory is trying to cope with the sterling problem. Oil is now at a four year low, and the price of electricity has not come down. Ryan is talking about carbon emmisions. We is completely clueless about workers and their families. And because FF are now ‘in with the Greens’ (like they used to be in with the PDs) there is no discussion about the topic. Coughlan seems to be more interested in pleasing the Green’s ideology than in saving our cities.
I honestly think that if the government subsidised the ESB to cut the cost of electricity to every industrial estate in the country, that it would save more jobs, do more for the economy, and cost the PAYE taxpayer less, than throwing money into a waste of time called Anglo Irish Bank. We have scarce resources-we can afford any more Ahern scale squandering. We need our industries to survice. The workers in our factories cannot ‘do R&D’ as per the ‘framework’. Our industries will get us out of this mess, if the government would give them a chance. But Dan Boyle will not even given the industrial sector the chance of trying to save the country.
Deco-
“I honestly think that if the government subsidised the ESB to cut the cost of electricity to every industrial estate in the country, that it would save more jobs, do more for the economy, and cost the PAYE taxpayer less, than throwing money into a waste of time called Anglo Irish Bank.”
I like where you’re going with this.
But:
Subsidising the cost of industry in Ireland this way is a small drop in a big ocean. Our ext. low corporation tax level is already frowned upon- and very possibly in breach of rules of- the EU. Even with this the expense of doing business here is still used as a reason for large scale employers (Dell) to relocate elsewhere.
Which is part of the reason this is going to hit Ireland so hard- the long term risk of the IDA’s successes in atttracting large multinationals is being realised. Compare Coughlan and O’Dea going on a begging/junket trip to Mr Dell in Texas with the Big Three CEOs flying to Washington.
The €500 million innovation fund (DmcW’s Ireland inc article before christmas) is a step in the right direction- supporting the growth of indigenous industry at a time of crisis.
Also, I’m not entirely sure I’d classify Waterford Crystal as “something useful.” Expensive and pretty, yes, and while cornering the market for Formula 1 trophies is a laudible feat, luxury brands like this aren’t going to experience a sudden boom in sales this year.
David,
How can we expect change in a country which up unitl 1996 still allowed Magdalene Asylums to be operated !!
Wishful thinking im afraid ………..
France – is on it’s 4th Republic for some years now …..can Ireland learn from it ? What about a Soverign Chapter 11 ?
We are living in changing times with speed and sharp overtaking on bends and vroom and more vrrooooom …….to where is all I am asking Economist ?
Hmmm, in fact France is on its 5th republic, brought in by De Gaulle…
David,
You mention the Financial Regulator. How about instead an Irish Sarbanes-Oxley Act for starters? if the Irish are going to play American games with the economy, they might at least have some of their legislation too…
Would it help? Could an Irish-SOX create a framework for a shareholder lead civil prosecution of the banking barons? I cannot imagine better retribution. If course we couldn’t do it now, but it could act as a sword of Damocles should anyone try the same nonsense again in a few years.
Much as I hate to say it I think the law might be the answer in the short term. Longer term of course our biggest problem is not the financial deficit, its the leadership one, both in public and private life.
SOX is a waste of time and effort and patently doesn’t work.
Fair enough. But better laws might be a good start, cos judging from some of these posts, the answer will be mass emigration or worse, will come in the form of 7.62mm, full metal jacket.
All the laws in the world won’t make a jot of difference. Look at Bev brazenly obeying the law and taking her 41 grand.
Bev’s behaviour is facilitated by party policy, not the law, and if her constituents had any sense, they’d have tossed her out ages ago, but you know, shes a cute hoar etc….
At least having laws, with a notionally independent judiciary means that you have something other than moral outrage with which to attack these little piggies.
True, true, but Bev’s behaviour is facilitated by party policy, not the law, and if her constituents had any sense, they’d have tossed her out ages ago, but you know, shes a cute hoar etc….
At least having laws, with a notionally independent judiciary means that you have something other than moral outrage with which to attack these little piggies.
The people of Mayo have destroyed their own self-respect sending that clown BCF to the Dail.
Hi y’all,
first time contributor, loving the articles and especially all your posts :-)
@Tim Allen,
rather than speaking in code could you be more specific re the 10th, 11th and 12th? We’re already living in fear about everything that’s happening in this country, no one feels safe I’m sure…at least put us out of our misery re your cryptic prophesying.
Slán,
Josey
Josey,
We’ve all given up on that one………………………
David, as you said in the Pope’s Children, which I finally caught up with over the holidays, there were various groups who were uneasy with the boom including the snobs, the trads and your lot, the “Economic Enquirers, who worried how it was all going to end. To quote, we were like a poor man who has won the lotto. But with all that drink and excess it’s no wonder nobody was listening. As for the snobs, if that’s the alternative give me snobbery. And I can’t get the image of that middle-aged German couple out of my mind, their money safely tucked up in the bank while they lean back in front of Verboten Liebe before going to bed for another early night themselves.
In recent months, now that the situation could no longer be denied, there’s been erudite commentary springing up all over the press explaining how we got here, much of it quite impressive – except where was it earlier, when we really needed it? And we hear now that the public are all sober realists now, armchair economists (like myself). It can’t be, can it, that nobody after all lost the run of themselves? Or maybe it was the opposite, which would presumably be Marian Finucance’s belief as I heard her say some time back that we were all to blame, that we all got caught up in the speculation (subtext: we are all guilty so we must all now share the pain). A moment’s madness, yer Honour, it could happen to anyone, even to the poor innocents in our finger-wagging know-all Kommentariat. And you’re right about the half-baked ideology (could the authors and propagators please stand up?) and about us being held up as a salutory lesson in how not to conduct an economy (sorry Paddy, can’t agree with you on this one). There was an “Irish exceptionalism” all right but not in the way they meant.
Deco mentioned the pride of the Irish on a few occasions and (again) he has nailed it. It shows in the know-all attitude and the inability to admit to error. There’s an interesting definition in pride in Dorothy Rowe’s books about depression where she identifies it as possibly the main thing standing in the way of a cure. The depressed person knows he has to make the change, which is plain to everyone around including himself, but pride gets in the way (pride being defined as the fearful but wilful refusal to abandon the thinking that got him there in the first place).
John Allen: as a 15 year-old in full flight from reality (that’s going back 35 years) I read too much of this New Age guff at the local library than was good for me (who was responsible for getting it in?). There was another book there, a sceptical volume called Cults of Unreason, which really annoyed me at the time because it was telling me that my fantasies were lies. I’m sorry to see that there’s more of it out there now than ever before in all its dreary pointlessness. It lacks imagination, and real life is more bizarre anyway. At a time of massive national self-deception the last thing we need is more of it especially as we’re finally getting a clear sighting of the “hidden” Ireland, and I don’t mean Corkery’s pastoral idyll. Anyway, if we found Atlantis we’d only try to buy up property there.
Gene Kerrigan was also mentioned recently which is interesting as I got a feeling from an earlier article that he’d passed this way, and why not. (By the way I wonder if an American academic interviewed recently on RnaG has done likewise.) Kerrigan was ploughing a lonely furrow when it was neither popular nor profitable – I was beginning to wonder if the Sunday Indo. was going to axe him as it was spoiling the celebratory mood. He also wrote an entertaining book about the politicians and their massive perks (free parking in Leinster House for life etc etc) – can’t remember the name. Perhaps BrendanW can let us use his space when he’s elected.
VincentH – I got a laugh from your post last week – if you’re not in the “union”, if you’re not holding hands in a circle, your back is against the wall. How true.
Deco, your story about the ESB pursuing a corporate empire abroad at the Irish taxpayer’s expense sounds familiar. On the scenic route from Baden Baden to Forbach last year I passed a shiny Smurfitt factory by the side of the road, which put me in mind of (wait for it…) Ray Crotty. He seemed to bear a particular grudge against Smurfitt, the way he was let borrow cheap (along with other favoured outfits, who also happened to have secured a monopoly position here) and build up an empire abroad. Re licences (VincentH) he says somewhere that he had to get a plate holder to bring his beet crop to the factory in Kilkenny, a local licence-holder who had acquired the plate “in the mysterious way these things are done” at a cost of half his profits! Sorry to bring him up again after promising not to. Why can’t someone here take a look at him again, instead of reading these Americans and Austrians (I except Keynes)? It would be such a weight off …
@ Coldblow with regard to my free parking spot at Leinster House it is the likes of this that I would be standing against at local council elections this year. Today in the Independent there is article on Ms Flynn and her take home package of €206,000 a year which does not include her 2 computers and printers or her 1750 postal letters per month !( who does she send all these letters to each month ? ) , this is the utter madness that has us where we are today , her wage breaks down as €3,961 each week.
Four years ago I was unemployed due to a motor bike accident ( my own fault ) and my dole was €182.00 a week , one of my golfing buddies is now signing on today and he is taking home €197.50 and will get €101.00 towards his rent .
Why do we need to pay un qualified people such as Ms Flynn an extra €3,700 odd a week for sitting in our parliament. This country has to wake up and stay off the Guinness for a few days and step back to take a look at the mess we are in. We just simply can’t continue like this.
My point about standing at local elections is that others should also come out and stand against these crooks that are milking this nation they are no better than Mugabe and some honesty has to be put forward in this new climate as for too long now the general public has been lied to about every thing .
I know we will never have a Utopian society , but we can have a better health, educational, energy, transport and social system than we presently have , if we just stop pulling fast ones . Our hypocrisy like the Italians stems from the Catholic up bringing we can break the laws , lie to our neighbors as it’s all right we can get absolution on Sunday .
It’s time we grew up a bit as people and a nation
ok fair enough criticism. My opinion is that such examples as yours educate us in a practical way about the harmful influence of government in artificially dictating the supply of such services. It is true that one does not need to study the economics of chicago or vienna to see this. However reading such material does make one wary of all such interferences in the market both before and after taking place.
The smoothing mechanism suggested by DMcW putting controls on pricing, land prices, loan limits etc etc is actually drifting from the main issue (which I’ll explain in a sec.). Every country had issues relating to scandalous decision making by banks and buyer in relation to property – so it’s a level playing pitch in that regard.
Where Ireland excelled(??) was the government took the huge windfall stamp duties as steady state yearly income for the future. The result was to allow public expenditure go completely bannanaaas. 41Bn is the intake now. That’s the same as 2004 or 5. BUT we now have a State Expenditure with a run rate expecting a tax revenue 25% above what we are now getting. No wonder the bonds are shagged.
What Cowen and the lads are realising is that turning off money supplies is not the same are turning off committments – particularly in relation to services and were you have ramped up headcount 20-30% over what you can afford. Pulling the plug on this will cause public unrest from PS employees and from those receiving services. This will cause change – make no mistake as it will be forced upon us and someone will have to pay.
I expect an attempt to raid NTMA and I think this has to be stopped. This Anglo nonsense needs to be nipped in the bud as well. This is time wasting and will achieve nothing. Maybe John Allen’s predictions for 10/11 allude to something in this area going badly wrong for the lads.
While I fully am sympathetic with the cynical & correct (in my view) comments re the Irish to make the same mess again and again voting for FF, I think what has happened is not a mere case of slight over exuberence that will blow over soon. I think for the first time people are starting to realise that Eire could go down the tubes as a nation – never to re-emerge or with major compromises to its sovereignty. Angela Merkel…since most of the money we spent is yours can you please take over the running of the place as a going concern or our pensions will be clobbered!!
“Angela Merkel…since most of the money we spent is yours can you please take over the running of the place as a going concern or our pensions will be clobbered!!”
Cannot resist…. I told ye so…. a good while back I suggested we go cap in hand.
As I understand the (increasingly confused) situation, we are doing that this week, going to the well for bonds, it is the Germans who, in effect, decide, is it not?
I echo the requests for less sniping and more realism on here.
Bye, Barry
Josey – Hark hark….dont despair …in the interest of free speech and transparency ….and….and…being really honest with you …I will do my best for you on the net ( deep breath – i am serious ok ! ) :
right now a big gravity pull has begun today that is stretching all emotions and the earth as being an organic matter ( ie life …u listening furrylugs )
and this gravity is increasing until it’s optimum on the 12th ie sunday ( monday it wanes )…so when something is weak …it cracks now or if someone is dying now and survives until tuesday they just wont die for a long time to come / weather becomes extreme / people snap and shout / some cannot sleep when normally they do/ pains in bones occur to some – its different to different people it depends on dates of birth etc – usually major Decisions happen Now …Revelations – even Sucides – the Emotional Swings to some happen subconsciously so the Advise I give to everyone now is…………Go Slow …until Monday when normality returns …if people are presurising you now…take one step backwards …and allow them fall over themselves …u will come out the winner – on monday if you are still interested i can tell u what to look for in ur house for a surprise ok?
Please everyone drive slower now
correction -sunday is 11th is optimum / monday 12th it wanes
Dear Mr. Allen are you sure the gravity pull was not today?
I had great difficulty getting out of bed this morning.
My namesake sugests ” take one step backwards” do you intend rather a parasang?
Mediator,
Is there any way you can filter out Mr Allen’s entries from my view? I’m trying to be as civil as possible but seing …….. at the end of each sentence is highly irritating and devaluing the interesting posts here.
Coldblow, why do you criticise Smurfit? – he was the original Irish pathfinder when almost everyone in this country were inward looking and depended on foreigners to provide jobs. Smurfit broke the mould and built a massive company from a small Dublin base – he expanded his operations in Britain to gave him the necessary size to compete with the big boys. Ireland is/was too small a market to build a company to any reasonable size – so he did what had to be done and succeeded in spectacular style. Before Jack Charlton, Smurfit was the only icon in Ireland. I was on his payrole in the early days when he had to oversee something like 300 companies in the Group – think about it – he could only give one day to each company each year. Criticism comes easy to the Irish, but doing is for someone else.
Ray Crotty may have had a good intellect, but he couldn’t manage the sizable farm that he inherited, not to mention a business.
Shane Ross wrote an article at the height of the Smurfit Empire. He predicted that Smurfit would learn to love the lifestyle that went with the status of being top entrepreneur. A precursor to Sean Quinn – except with a massive love of the high roller lifestyle. Ross was correct. Smurfit led the business drift a bit.
The real case in point concerning monopolizing the market at home, extracting massive profits, and then investing the proceeds abroad is CRH. Which incidentally was pulled up by Sean Quinn. The AIB/BOI duopoly is another example in the 1980s. Again ANIB broke the mould there.
The problem is that the Competition Authority is about alert and effective as the Financial Regulatory Authority. It would seem that the state sits on it’s hands in some departments, and is positively engaged in others – like when the builders need a bail out. Crony capitalism. Nepotism. Old school ties. Corporate misadventure. And bad management. We should let them fail-and stop the bailouts of bad managers. Bailout the unemployed. Bail out the young people who need upskilling. Bailout regions / towns that are set to become unemployment blackspots. Put the money into infrastructure that reduces our costs.
And let the banks fail.
Let us remember the Great Tony Gregory who put people before politics, long before it became an empty promise from Ahern. Let us remember a man who cared for people, and never cared for the institutions, excuses, vested interests, ineptitude, authority and bureacracy that blocked his path.
May, Tony Gregory, an unyielding servant of the common people, Rest in Peace, and be remembered with respect.
He also put Charlie before Garrett. Big mistake.
Actually -thanks to the level of transparency that existed in Ireland, AIB never had to reveal that CJH was in an unconstitutional position with regard to his Dail seat – CJ being bankrupt at that stage – unless he liquidated his assets – Charvet shirts, Inishvickilaune et al.
Tony Gregory looked at the deprivation existing in the North Inner City, which was the most deprived urban area at the time in the state. And he done a deal for his people. Putting CJH was a tragedy for the country. But Gregory had enough of the misery in his own area, and did something. And unlike CJH, Gregory did not do U-turns all over the place.
Most of the country was a deprived area at the time, but only north inner city dubs thought it would be a great idea to start taking heroin and develop a habit for it and then rob and mug grannies to pay for their habit.
Gregory did not make any impact on crime in that area. Just because he didn’t amass a personal fortune is no reason for starting the canonisation process. Contrast Gregory with Cruise – O’Brien who used to be the only person to ask how CJH kept up hi lifestyle.
Gregory didn’t give a monkeys about the people outside of his constituency.
Hear! Hear!
Thanks, Deco.
Deco, ” Bailout the unemployed. Bail out the young people who need upskilling. Bailout regions / towns that are set to become unemployment blackspots. Put the money into infrastructure that reduces our costs.
And let the banks fail.”
Can you, please, add “Invest in Education at all levels instead of cutting it” to your list?
I have begun to agree with you on most things, but our country is going nowhere without this.
Invest in education at all levels – and make it work in a better way. We need to have a clear idea how many doctors, technologists, pharmacists, electrical engineers, etc.. we will need to function effectively as an economy and as a society. It seems that the Universities are educating graduates only to have them leave the country to find work.
And we also need to get our young people to take education seriously. It did not help having a Celebrity/Man Utd Taoiseach over the past few years. This type of nonsense has to stop.
When the bubble bursts are we left with more than we started with.Can we make good use of all these new properties.Has the infrastructure been upgraded during this period.Can we demolish obsolete properties and house those in need in the newer ones.Has the planners got it right across the country.Has the demographic changed for the better.Will it be more cost effective to maintain the services.Has everyone a functioning water and sewerage system.Have we created the capacity to reduce our energy needs.How much more investment will it take to bring us up to best practice.Money was made round to go around.Cheap euros just looking for a good home.We have hit a bit of a hump at the moment but it will pass.Lets stop talking ourselves into the ground and be a bit more positive.We lost to many good people fighting for the very freedom we enjoy today.This will be a good challenge for the produce of our education system.p.s.send me onn the results in a few years,and let me know how ye did.My address is Cottlesloe beach,Perth,Australia.GDAY MATE.sorry just practicing my aussie speak.
Jim, the fields definately look greener from far away. Enjoy the end of the summer there. You ask a lot of excellent questions and it’s a big NO for most of them. We might be all dropping over to you in person to look for a job :)
Deco, and another hear! hear! from me on Tony Gregory. I lived in his constituentcy for a number of years. Brilliant. A real man of the people.
John Allen:
Gasprom – Taps turned off today and the rest of Europe is starting to shiver (physically and emotionally).
Limerick sweats as Dell prepares to make an announcement
As for GAZA….God knows what will happen there.
It seems like Tick Tick Tick or “. . .” everywhere!
Pretty much in line with your “predictions”. Sorry, I have zero belief in astrology. But, you probably have better observational skills than most expressed through the prose of astrology.
Where does Ireland get most of it’s Gas from? I hope it’s via our very own gas field…..are they still on the go?
Philip – re the smoothing mechanism suggested by DMcW for booms and busts, from what little I’ve read about economics I understand that this has been central to economic debate for nearly two centuries. No-one will argue with your summary however.
Ed – thanks for your response re Smurfit. I am trying to remember Crotty’s argument but I think it was that Smurfit borrowed cheaply, bought out the competition, then mechanized which put workers out of jobs. At the same time the government of the day was doing everything to attract the likes of Aughinish Alumina by providing tax breaks, cheap electricity and whatever else in order to provide employment but thereby further driving up the costs for everyone else and putting others out of work. Maybe both were to the benefit of the country ultimately and this would be worth knowing. As you say, Crotty didn’t run his farm too successfully as (apart from the fact that he had no background in farming) he was trying to improve productivity and with the excessive costs involved he realized he’d have been as well just doing nothing and leaving it for grazing like everybody else – that’s what set him on the path of self-study to find out what was going on. One of the things he discovered was what the likes of Deco have also found by independent analysis, our economic rent infrastructure. (I think it was Blue Angel who first mentioned that here in fact.) The impression I get is that Crotty was ignored by the mainstream and I had to go to the local library’s stockroom recently to dig out his books. The thing here is that the mainstream now stands in the dock for endorsing half-assed ideology to use David’s phrase. Maybe Crotty’s completely wrong and me with him, so I’m pleased with your response as I need to be told if I’m up there in cloud cuckoo land.
Tim – on the same basis I’d be very wary of making a sacred cow of education which is another icon. At this very moment 500 teachers the length and breadth of Ireland are saying: “Why haven’t you got a pen?”
Actually Coldblow – It was from listening to Colm McCarthy (UCD) that I actually learned about the economic rent infrastructure – and from listening to Eddie Hobbs – who provided all of the evidence of the RipOff Republic.
Every time you hear about Dell, etc.. bear in mind that the cost base of a country does matter. But we had bankers, and politicians who consistently ignored this with their various economic theories. They need to stop pontificating and deliver cost effective infrastructure, and also enable full competition in the private sector. It will be better for everybody. Instead they are just behaving like representatives of vested interests.
Barack Obama is on a massive “hearts & minds” pre-office mission to sell reality to Americans. Insofar as massive borrowings are and will continue ro fund his quantitative easing policy, he is also spelling out the plain truth that America will owe trillions for years to come. But to balance tha
Hit the wrong button. Apologies.
To balance that fact, he is promising more stringent, moralistic financial control.
All good so far and the jury will be out to see will he deliver. He has dispatched Joe Biden to SE Asia to assess the Pakistan/ India/ Afghanistan mess so expect the US president to focus on America with the VP tipping round the world keeping the flag flying.
Now here, we are told that An Bord Snip will identify, going forward, an alphabet of gobbledegook speak “solutions” borrowed from the worst of Sir Humphrey Appleby.
This is not believed and neither are the people that spout the insulting inanities on a daily basis. All the parliamentary parties voted higher expenses prior to the “Budget”. Beverly Flynn will bullishly hang onto her allowance due to cowardice. And so will everyone else retain the privilege if high office whilst the country deteriorates further.
Going back to the “black swan”, if an bord snip doesn’t make a meaningful start from the top and be seen to do so, this country may experience unpleasantness the like of which will be the stuff of future textbooks. People who trusted the spin around the Tiger and bought into the dream, on the basis that this is a democracy and one trusts the elected leaders to do the right thing, are being destroyed. Still,nothing is really shaking the rafters in D4.
The mood round the country outside the Pale is starting to get ugly and it will not take much more inequitable doublespeak to tip the scales.
For the first time, I can see this as an eventuallity.
Furrylugs is correct about nothing shaking the rafters in D4.
I heard about a black tie house party in Dublin over Christmas from a very reliable source who was physically present. Those present were the great and the good of the banking and business world in D4 and other cool South Dublin hoods, including the CEO of one of the two leading banks in Ireland. At the door all guests were told that the mention of the word “recession” was not allowed and any utterances thereof would cause the guest to be asked to vacate. The pary proceeded with loads of merrymaking and backslapping like it was 1999 or 2006 or whatever.
D4 has not been effected in any way. They will be effected but I am sure that the grat and the good have salted away enough cash to get over the hump on a Portugese beach somewhere.
Ger
I heard of one where Professor Lenihan was present, and he is reported to have said that people in the banking sector should recall he is an expert on banking law(from his days as an academic) According to my spy the bankers were worried about that and so Lenihan is ‘in charge’
I told my spy he must have been drunk, and maybe was still drunk. Of course he might be right, then Lenihan and Co were drunk, and still are.
Bye, Barry
Hmm,
Spoke too soon about Bev. Maybe the penny is starting to drop?
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0107/breaking26.htm
Logic – many very good contributions have been written on this site showing how things can be sorted out and why things went wrong in the first place .however, we should all know now that in …..The Power of Now Logic is Dead …..and something else is needed to kick start Normality again.In reality there is a Simple Solution that will takes us through this blackspot period and we can only find that when we together as a nation are willing to work together to this end .The Solution comes from the Bottom Up and not vice versa .Real Leadership only comes from the Top and this brings us Hope .Obama already is a symbol of hope and thus we believe he will be a good leader .We need a good leader that we can Trust and Understand to be our own and when we know we have that we know we will do anything to bring our country back again to the way we we want it to be .Do we Pray or Dream to find that ?Is there some other way ?
If the national leadership is not proving up to the job then it is necessary to default to a more local level of leadership, rather than abandon hope or coordinated action altogether. You are completely right that action comes from the bottom up and I would rather see grass roots actions across the country putting hope and prospects back into play, than we all sit collectively on our hands and moan about a lack of leadership. Get off our arses and make the changes we need locally people.
Thats absolutely on the button Thrift and locally we are getting things done here despite all the doom and gloom. The only fly in the ointment being local politicians who don’t give a monkeys until;
(a) it looks like there might be a few bob to be made
or
(b) The local project is getting publicity so the bandwagon jumpers come on board.
At either (a) or (b) the local ideas and effort get stolen into “initiatives”.
People who voluntarily gave time, the most precious asset, or money, perceive the “big boys” taking over and the project decends into beurocracy.
So we keep thing as low profile as possible and go our own way. Very few people in this country understand the notion of free/gratis community help. There’s always an undercurrent of “Whats in it for me? If nothing, I won’t stand idly by, I’ll block it.”
The boy stood on the burning deck whence all but he had fled.
http://www.businessworld.ie/bworld/rankednews2.htm?s=index.html;s2=rankednews2.htm;r=4;a=2346669
I wonder what poor sap will be left at ANIB to face the cameras?
Furrylugs, though I thank you for the literary reference, I see nothing “noble” in ANIB.
Deco (@9:49pm), correct! Journalists interviewing journalists about journalism! This has been going on for years and it is ridiculously lazy!
I will never forget, in 2002, Joe Duffy doing his 7 and a half hours’ radio “presentation” per week, criticising a young teacher for having a “short” week of 22 hours “presentation” in the classroom, while he was (and still is) paid TEN times the salary of that teacher.
Gimme a bucket!
Word of #Amish – Its amazing how a traditional mindset can still function in tandem in a modern world and have everything – discipline plays a big part in it .If that is a Price to feel happy we can still hold on to democracy .
Present social trends in Ireland seems to indicate we are moving to a Social Economy like France – Liberte Egalite Fraternite – but the professional French are leaving their beautiful country are they not ?What was right for them is now changing to bling bling bling Sarkosy .
Cornerstone – grassroot politics cannot function until proper family values are restored this is the real economic problem we have .This represents the smallest economical particle in our social function and is the first priority in a new leadership to solve .
Well if Family is indeed the corner stone on which a nation ( extended family )is bulit, we truely do have to remove the current Gov. As I see it the whole lot of them are the same, so FF, FG or labour with a green twist will carry out the same policies.
If a grassroots movement doesn’t spring up soon during this moment of opportunity something bigger and more repressive than we’ve seen will come from the top down.
Time is of the essence……
spot on, John
David
I wouldn’t be as confident that Ireland will be able to raise the €20 BN required in the bond market this year
unless they pay a huge premium. Check out the following link.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16c7ceba-dcbe-11dd-a2a9-000077b07658.html
For those of you being paid by the government (and that includes me!) don’t think that you’re safe from whats going
on at the moment – if the government run out of money (capacity to borrow) there may come a day when there
is no paycheck for you at month end.
Some key things to focus your spending on in the coming months…
Shelter (House), Clothes, Food and Water, Energy, Medical. Most other things especially “consumer goods” can be put on the long finger.
Good points,
what about gold as a safe habour from the coming hyper inflation?
…perhaps you should add two more things..barbed wire and a firearm for protection.
The bottom really does look like it is about to fall right out and it could all turn very nasty indeed…
Let’s all pray that the news from Dell tomorrow is not as bad as we expect. Hope springs eternal despite circumstances.
You need a license for a firearm Ire…so you’ll be registered and should TSHF they’ll come for your pellet gun with their Tanks.
Are we going to be the next Greece? Let’s hope not politically, though I wouldn’t mind a summer like their autumns :-)
BAN Protional Representation I say……Are FF. FG, Labour all the same? Come on guys and gals.
FF is for developers
Labour is for overpaid PS workers and Unions
FG for rich farmers
etc etc
But competence is the key question I hear. And frankly, for me that that seems currently to be still with Labour, FG and possibly SF.
If memory serves, the Rainbow coalition jumpstarted the place the last time round and I remember the way people longed for FF and the way they’d pump money into the economy. FG and the Minister or Hardship comes to mind – an RTE/FF hatchet job perhaps?. Fact is….they had the brains. ok ok…Mac the knife was good too. Even Dev was quite a mathematician who was apparently au fait with Einstein’s theories.
My point is that we do have the guys that can do the job. There is no shortage of brains there.
The thing is that in spite of the job losses, for many outside the urban centres, life is simple and unchanged and shure, why are ye whinging so much, ye never had it so good! With PR, these people have a disproportionate control of the issues in government. Maybe a redraftof the constituency boundaries to properly represent the real intellectual talent of the country is needed. :)
We need to be careful here about dismissing all the guys in parliament.. Are we just looking for another elite – one that understands the 21st century rather than be bogged down in the 19th OR are we just too afraid to ring up the TDs and engage. It takes time and the trouble. Get on with it! be at every community meeting and kick up a big stink…people are listening now.
Yes they are all the same, nepotism is rife in all of them, they’ve all been compromised through corruption and scandal.
We have to realise that the left v right political paradigm is a ruse….both arms are of the same body. It’s just as real as celebrity BB…oh yes he is….oh no he isn’t…etc. etc. ad infinitum, meanwhile they sell off our resources and sweat our sorry asses…….sure we’ll never need them. we’ll just import cheap fish and gas from abroad…eureka!!!
An example of RTE, and the fact that we regularly have one presenter praising another.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/letters/its-all-me-me-me-at-incestuous-rte-1593957.html
TV3 may mean “TV drivel” – but even they are milder than RTE in this department…
Josey – ur speaking my language – u deserve a free copy of da wu yu code book – e mail for one to deeboblesse@hotmail.com
josey – correction deenoblesse@hotmail.com
John Allen – now is not the time to challange the authority of the State. We really should all row in together and support our elected representatives, after all you voted for them.
Redrawing of constituencies has been done before and is known as gerrymandering – By the tone of your posts you probably live in Dublin 4, do you consider that democracy is now redundant? Perhaps it does not suit the lifestyle to which you have become accustomed. Change Yes, but not the anarchy which you propose
Oh Charles – what did you eat ? I never mentioned Anarchy but I do consider democracy to be redundant by the government not by the people nevertheless it is a matter for the electorate to rectify that and shut down their plasma tv’s
Dear John, perhaps you might consider forming a new party to be called the Irish National Socialist Party. It is distressing to see such despair in our intellectual elite.
Ooops…the Godwin principle has finally arrived…
Not good for the forum!!!
Charles – absolutely no…i have a pack of dogs and i feel safer with them
David said: “Ultimately, deflation corrodes an economy and a society more than inflation ever could, and we in Ireland must avoid this at all costs. At some stage, we need to change things. We might need prices to fall another bit from here to become more competitive, but it’s time to put a stop to this. We need to call a halt.”
Our ‘Minsky Moment’ happened in early June 2008 when Anglo Irish Bank began to metamorphose into a Ponzi scheme and the final precipitous phase of its decline began, then accelerated in early October 2008. Now we are in the post Minsky deflationary phase, when the speculative fringe of builders, developers etc go bust, followed by the hedge funds.
This all leads to what is known as the Minsky solution, a socialist throwback, when the government not only steps up to the risk-taking and spending that the private sector is shirking, but goes further, providing a meaningful reflationary thrust to both private sector risk assets and aggregate demand for goods and services. This seems to be what Lenihan is aiming for, but it might take another year at least to be effective. It will require the ECB to print billions of Euro, an anti-deflation technique conceived by the great Milton Friedman that leads to a money-financed tax cut.
Thus it seems the right reflationary thing to do is to systemically save capitalism from its inherent debt-deflationary pathologies, not to eliminate the capitalist system altogether. Remember, capitalism is a process of creative destruction, churning resources from yesterday’s technologies and work methods to the more productive and profitable ones of tomorrow. Say Goodbye Wedgwood Waterford, Woolworths, and many more to come. Say Hello to the Japanese?
Malcolm McClure. We should be prepared for capitalist consequences to capitalist mistakes. The problem is that Dublin 4 does not really understand the downside to capitalism. Therefore they peddle this story that socialism for the rich will benefit the poor. Nonsense. According to Phoenix Magazine, ANIB became a ponzi scheme when David Drumm took over.
The only way to save capitalism in Ireland is to let it collapse, and be regenerated. This means throwing all the David Drumms of this country on the scrap heap. They were given responsiilities for which they were inadequate. If this was the Irish soccer manager, the Evening Herald would have a campaign to replace him. If it was the Dublin football manager, he would be already out the door, at even the slightest whiff of failure. It seems people get very worked up about an issue that affects their pride, but let the clowns running the country behave in an unaccountable manner.
The only way to preserve the social structures necessary for socialism, is to allocate money to such structures, and not to failed capitalism. In other words, to save socialism in Ireland, it is necessary to allow capitalism to collapse.
Strange – same policy will benefit both capitalism and socialism. But is of no use to all the cronies running the country. Now we know why there never was a right-left divide in Irish politics. Because of the nepotism endemnic in Irish society – which always controlled public perceptions thanks to control of the advertising budget, and a large compliant media. But the media is changing. The networks of the incompetent, who control the culture prevalent in authority, in the private and public sector, are under seige. And the people, especially in the regions are getting very fed up. The emigration safety valve – which could always be relied upon to get the angriest people out of the country, when in other societies they would have hung around to press for reform, is becomming less and less of an option.
JFK had a phrase concerning the need for Reform, to prevent the urge for Revolution. We need massive institutional reform to sort out this country.
Tell me. How could the ecb money printing lead to a money financed tax cut? Firstly it would be an increased tax on saving as it would reduce the value of existing bank balances and cash holdings. Secondly it would reduce the value of nominal wage contracts which again is the same as an increase in taxation. One group that would be quite pleased is the government whose interest repayments would fall. In fairness to your comments, the injection of monetary stimulus can provide a higher floor to the asset markets but regarding it as a money financed tax cut seems wrong to me. However it could also happen that the reduced pressure on government borrowings from lower real interest rates could end up preventing our tax rates from rising.
L: Perhaps I should have said ‘Quantitative easing’ instead of ‘print billions’ because the effect intended is to have the central bank purchase government bonds with ‘new fiat money’. This in turn will provide temporary liquidity for the government to take the necessary steps to ease the credit crunch. It could use this liquidity to compensate itself for reduced tax returns. For example it could ease industry’s impacted by the widening credit spread with specific tax credits, or even provide a temporary tax holiday targeted at small to medium enterprises who agreed for their part to avoid redundancies.
The intended effect of low interest rates is to encourage savers to withdraw from low interest but safe bonds and put their money into riskier stocks and shares that will benefit from the recovery when it happens.
Philip, “FF is for developers
Labour is for overpaid PS workers and Unions
FG for rich farmers”
I am afraid that you are at least 20 years out of date with that.
FF will collude with anybody that it thinks will make things work;
Labour will do the same, but ceased to be the “friend of the PS worker” a long time ago – remember Ruari Quinn “TELLING” the nurses to get back to work in 1997?
FG does not have too many “rich farmers” anymore – that was in the ’80s.
They would all operate the same way today – no difference except by degree of pain per sector.
Several posters here have recently been expressing an interest in leaving the country. A friend of mine sent me this link today, and it seems like the perfect place to start for anyone looking to move ‘off-shore’
http://www.ptshamrock.com/
I should point out that he sent it to me in a spirit of ‘Look at this sh*t’ rather than ‘look Lorcan here’s how to save your millions’…
I was sent that link some years ago…by some people who now live in Portugal…
Deco, @ 9:49pm) correct! Journalists interviewing journalists about journalism! This has been going on for years and it is ridiculously lazy!
I will never forget, in 2002, Joe Duffy doing his 7 and a half hours’ radio “presentation” per week, criticising a young teacher for having a “short” week of 22 hours “presentation” in the classroom, while he was (and still is) paid TEN times the salary of that teacher.
Gimme a bucket!
As the temperature rises rapidly, it’s interesting to read David present a possible technical solution to cool down the situation.
However, from reading the comments of other posters, it seems there’s little chance of this working on a unilateral Irish basis, so one can only hope it gets a fair hearing at a larger EU/G20 type forum.
Ireland carved out a niche role in the world economy as host to footloose American and German capital, amongst other innovations. That is no longer viable/reliable as the main thrust of economic development.
I doubt there can be any serious ‘technical response’ from Irish politicians until Obama and Merkel set out their stalls. Hopefully, once these agendas are clear, a new ‘niche’ role will present itself to Irish business which allows the economy to resume sustainable growth after the current interruption.
It’s good to see the sterling/euro see-saw begin rebalancing now that Peer Steinbruck has been slapped across the face with a wet towel and the ECB has had another reality check / ‘moment of clarity’ regarding it’s doomsday ‘price-stability’ fixation.
In the longer term Ireland will have to make a strategic decision on whether to migrate from excessive dependence on exports to renegade Brits: Who are as likely to join the Euro in the next 20 years as they are to migrate to the Moon.
Regards.
Coldblow is the new ‘Grasshopper’ – only funnier and probably without the mad ‘ping-pong-balls-with-dots-on’ eyes. All together now – ‘Everybody is kung-fu fighting ‘ding-alinga-ding-dong-ding’ etc. ad nauseum.