Admittedly, looking out towards the horizon of the Indian Ocean from the volcanic heights of the French island of La Reunion is not the worst place to be writing about any economic crisis.
Indeed, when you read the history of this tiny speck in the ocean, almost a thousand miles from Africa and another couple of thousand from Australia, you get the definite feeling that this place has weathered worse storms. (Before you think I’m rubbing it in, I am working here for the French government putting a plan together to get this economy onto a more stable long-term trajectory. This type of strategic thinking appears to be lamentably absent in Ireland at the moment.)
In our current difficulties, we in Ireland could learn quite a bit from the economic history of trading outposts such as Reunion and other countries that shone brightly, only to succumb to bad decisions in the context of global upheavals. Regular readers of this column will know that, whereas many economists are concerned with how poor countries get rich, this column has always been equally concerned with the opposite dilemma, namely: Why do certain rich countries get poor?
Some countries get caught on the wrong side of global events and, due to no fault of their own, become footnotes in economic history. Other countries, more egregiously, get similarly caught on the wrong side of global events, but make things worse by bad policies. Reunion is an example of the former; Uruguay an example of the latter. Unfortunately, Ireland is in severe danger of becoming the Uruguay of Europe.
What makes the comparisons between the three countries – Ireland, Reunion and Uruguay – interesting is that, in their day, they were the poster boys of the three major eras of globalisation. Reunion was the poster boy of the first period of globalization between 1600 and 1800, when the Europeans first rounded the Cape of Good Hope and made the Indian Ocean their souk. Everything was traded here: spices, timber, gold, guns, slaves and, later, countries – and even empires.
The Portuguese, French, Dutch and then British fought over the few volcanic scraps of land that jutted out of the ocean. Reunion was one of the most important islands and later, after it had been settled, it became one of the world’s biggest producers of sugar. Disaster struck with the opening of the Suez Canal, because the world’s shipping from Asia no longer had to pass the Cape. Reunion went into terminal decline. Only the colonial architecture reveals the echo of its illustrious past. In fairness to Reunion, there was little it could have done about the geo-political shock that was the Suez Canal. More worrying for Ireland is the story of Uruguay.
Last year, when we suggested that Uruguay could be a warning for Ireland, we were scoffed at by the panglossian economic shamans who, back then, dominated discourse in Ireland. Now the alert doesn’t look so outlandish and it is worth considering the story again. It may be hard to believe now, but Uruguay was the world’s fastest-growing country for almost 20 years. It was the poster-boy of the second age of globalisation, from 1860 to 1930,when the Americas began to export aggressively to Europe. It had one of the world’s most comprehensive social welfare systems, brilliant infrastructure and, like Ireland of the past few years, a rapidly rising population driven by immigration.
So advanced was this small Latin American country that it was termed the ‘Switzerland of the Americas’. Uruguay was, in truth, nothing of the sort. Like Ireland today, it was a supply region. In its case, it was a highly efficient part of the global trade in agriculture. Uruguay was one of the world’s most competitive suppliers of meat, wool and leather.
Its farms were among the most productive in the world and, with the huge revenues it gained from this pre-eminence, the government invested in a modern welfare system, great schools and a European-style transport infrastructure. Montevideo’s boulevards were home to the finest fashions of New York and Paris. The virtuous cycle seemed to have taken hold. Because it was so brilliant at agriculture, Uruguay did not see fit to promote other industries or innovations. Montevideo was content to process agricultural products, add value and export them.
In the 1930s, things began to change. Agricultural prices fell worldwide. Uruguay suffered its first recession. Then, after World War II, European countries – having flirted with famine in 1945-46 – began to crank up agricultural production. Australia and New Zealand emerged as significant players in the market, and Uruguay’s period in the sun came to a crashing end. Money ran through Uruguay like a dose of salts and, 60 years after its heyday, Uruguay went from being the seventh richest country in the world to the 78th richest!
The main domestic reason that Uruguay messed up was that it tried to insulate itself from the changing global realities by expanding government employment. Rather than invest in infrastructure, it decided to hire more public servants and pay them better, creating a constituency that has held up reform in Uruguay ever since. Now look at Ireland. We are repeating these mistakes. Our pre-eminence as the world’s favourite multinational production location has been undermined by our own slipping competitiveness and the opening up of cheaper locations, particularly India. Equally, the cheap credit that fuelled our housing boom is gone.
Instead of facing up to our potential bankruptcy, we continue to pay public servants as if they were somehow special. Look at the two tables attached. In tables one and two, we see that our public servants are wildly overpaid when compared either with the private sector or their counterparts abroad. If we want to avoid the Uruguay situation, this nonsense of paying public servants more than anyone else has to stop.
The state needs to renege on partnership now and look for cuts in public sector wages. This will save the country from bankruptcy. If we continue along this outrageous path, Ireland will make the same mistake as Uruguay and see decades of hard work evaporate in a mirage of bad policy.
Here in the Indian Ocean, the history of Reunion – the poster-boy of the first age of globalisation – tells us that there are certain things you can’t change. However, the warning from Uruguay – the poster boy of the second age of globalisation – is stark. If we want to be remembered as the Uruguay of Europe, we are going in the right direction. If we want to do something about it, the time to act on public servants’ salaries is now. The choice is ours.
My Lost Generation – you have a point. Maybe DMcW may have run his course. He’s now stating the obvious more and more. But there is still is a learning environment for me and many of the rest of us here. Helps a lot in understanding the nonsense in the media.
I say to everyone, if you know your TD, hound him/ her. Let them know. DMcW should be shouting it from his columns!!
Hello Philip, as I said I have been looking forward to reading all the comments for the most one-sided (because it is that simple! there are really only 2 sides and that is a major part of the problem) and learnt a lot from the blog. But let’s face it, it is becoming easier and easier to get blows at the government and their friends as everything is being unveiled. How much dishonest, devious, coward-like, profiteering attitude and scandals can you take from these guys? How much? I think this blog is acting like a safety valve to Anger. But then again ‘revolutions’ do have a place and time and do happen when people really have enough or nothing more.
I personally don’t believe David has run his course at all. or this web forum for that matter.
David has said for years that we must focus on real productivity and not housing booms, a hamster wheel that our UK neighbours seem destined to step on and off forever.
Now, more than ever, we need to get competitive so that we can begin to lay the foundations for strong exports. How we do that is by encouraging entrepreneurialism through taxation, through lowering the balance of payments, through strengthening reliance on our own controllable resources such as energy and mining. They’re all of the niche areas that Deco points out are neatly guarded by economic rents.
This forum is essentially a how-to for ‘where do we go from here?’, spot the opportunities in the crises etc (its a small manageable country folks). Its like a readme file on age of empires.
The way forward is only difficult if you are speaking out of both corners of your mouth. Can’t keep everyone happy. Best to keep the powerful happy then
And before someone says ‘export to whom’, I’m no economic whizzkid but unless the Chinese stimulate their own domestic economy and continue with the modernisation of their wider economy, their halcyon days could come to a halt also; as American spending is over for now. So surely we can get a share of some domestic market, be it Indian or Chinese (or Réunion!) unless there’s an economic trade war between the EU and China as things progress.
I always thought that the flaw in capitalism was the limited amount of people in the world to trade in goods and services. Eventually when all the countries have all that they want or need, how are we going to practice economics then?
I know it’s an off the wall futuristic point but you can only make so much money out of so many people before you reach saturation.
Two military world wars and now this financial world war (because of the damage it’s done) is leading to where, exactly? I have a keen sense that we are living through the greatest upheaval in the Earths History. In 500 years, if we’re still a species, will DMcW’s decendant look back aghast at his great great etc grandfather?
The wheel my great antecedant, Mr Ug Furrylug, invented, is coming off the wagon. Any fortune tellers take that one on?
To Ger,
Thanks very much for the link to that story in the Irish Independent. Indeed, many of the top-brass in academia are coining it. What is worse, at NUI Galway, where I am based, some academics are receiving these top salaries whilst bringing in a requirement to work approximately 6 hours per week without payment. This work ranges from correcting assignment papers to giving tutorials (the type of work that academics are supposed to do but often can’t be bothered doing). University management claim that this is good “experience” for students… What planet do they live in?? Moreover, do they really think that undergraduates taught by unpaid and unmotivated postgraduates are really going to get the quality of education they deserve?
So, to summarise, we have top-brass coining it, exploiting those who are on the equivalent of a minimum wage, and the undergraduate students’ education is suffering as a result. What a shambolic system!
We badly need public sector reform that doesn’t just encompass government departments but all the other ivory towers and qangos as well. Otherwise, we are going to give our future away by throwing money down the drain (or down the throats of the nouvelle fat-cats (public service top-brass))
My Lost Generation
I hear your frustration re lack of doing anything (I kind of share it) however I’d like to make the following points:
We have had a number of decent politicians over the years either at local or national level however what tends
to happen to them is that if they are honest etc… they fail to get re-elected by “the peeple” because unfortunately the
majority of the Irish people do not recognise and reward such individuals – they reward the local party hack.
Example
- In tipperary Michael Lowry is a legend who looks after local parish pump type issues and duly gets his rewards at election time despite the fact that
he presided over the mobile phone license debacle where he allowed an asset conservatively estimated at being worth
300 million to be sold for 15m. The people of south tipp (insert local county) can’t see that this means 285million less for schools, roads, services etc…
-Another thing that happens to honest/good politicians is they get shafted by their party. An analogy is the straight cop who doesn’t take the bribes gets
ostracised (minimum) by his colleagues. Many talented and honest people who flirt with politics then leave. (Its leave or convert/be corrupted – see Green party for example)
So while I feel like starting a new party – I’d say that if the people here campaigned on the kinds of issues being talked about in this blog they’d do well to get 1 td elected.
Final point.
Violent or other mass movement type Revolutions never change anything substantial in the long term. What happens is that one set of vested interests get
replaced by another set but the policies remain. The rulers of this world (the powers that be) ensure that this is always the case by using the major tools at their disposal – namely the ability to control capital. Examples include the French revolution, Russian revolution or even our own little independence struggle (leaving out nationalist hyperbole, what benefit has independence brought the majority of our people either culturally or economically?).
We can, however effect real change by seeking first to change ourselves before we seek to change others. People learn by example not be being lectured at. Just a few points to consider…
Mediator, it’s an excellent point you make. I see Dutch, Germans and the Scandanavians and even the French are pretty good in terms of their principles and community view of mutual responsibilities. I believe that Ireland will never re-invent itself unless it finds it’s sense on local responsibility. But I tend to get slapped about a bit when I maintain that our loss of our language has destroyed our cultural quiet space and allows global english to constantly drown our thoughts and divide our local communities. As individuals we feel we are more connected to the US & UK than to here. We hate it here and want it more English and American.
Funny how they say English is the language of commerce. Actually it is really the language of global standards and associated cockups.
Every time I go home I am amazed at the amount of American crap that is on television and doubly amazed at the intensity and excitement levels that rise to unhealthy heights when some of the shows are aired. The U.S. has some wonderful television stations but it is rubbish that was discarded by a lot of the networks that seems to have been bought up by Irish stations.
Mediator – you are correct about anybody honest being ostracized by their colleagues in politics. Just look at Trevor Seargant. Gormless shafted him aside, so that Gormless could go get mercs and perks. No Seargant is silent.
Ger-Cowen has only one positive feature so far – he is not as dangerous or as delusional as Ahern. Ahern fed every delusion and inflated it. Ahern’s main drive was to increase confidence and swell up national pride. Pride got us overvalued property, debt mountains and a complete failure to recognise any of the problems at official level. Everybody knows the mess that is public policy. But officially it gets covered up. Senator Shane Ross had to pay €1000 to read the FAS annual report. He could not get to find out information about so called public organizations, whilst the equivalent information on private companies can be viewd on the internet for free. Even being a member of the Oireachtas, and thereby a representative of the people, did not allow him to be allowed see what was being done with the people’s money.
The €1000 charge to see the accounts of public organizations, is unconstitutional, and should be cancelled immediately. We need the equivalent of the Danish transparency political movement, “SOS-DEMOCRATIE” to open up the state apparatus to the citizens.
DMCW – correction …it was sunday ( yesterday ) that was the anniversary of the 1941 Pearl Harbour Bombing …the GI’s called them the …flying pigs……..we in Ireland will remember yesterday …as the end of Breakfast Roll Man..if they want to remain alive
Furrylugs – ‘fortune tellers ‘….you mean the code of before time and after time of ancient man…it has been in print since 11/17/2006 in usa
a number of the pig farmers bought cut price feed because they would not pay the increased price for corn.
The cost: 800 million Euros? for the usual bale out of the sacrosanct farming lobby.
Where were all the quangos ,while this went on.?
I am sure the consumer would have accepted a modest increase in the price of pig meat-rather than having it reared on contaminated offal, after all it is still 60% cheaper than beef.!
Penny pinching pig producers were given carte blanche to destroy an industry.
The Two Brians must be wringing their hands in anguish.
Where to find another billion?
A new tax on the number of windows in poor mens houses.?
New (emergency) border checkpoints?
Maybe Michael OLeary´s hour has come.
in desperate times,cash is king..
Cutting public servants pay is one thing but the more immediate problem is in what capacity do we get people back to work. What kind of jobs are out there at the moment for fellas in construction who lose jobs or for factory workers who lose theirs. As the economic crisis deepens the need for an economis stimulus that will promote a public works scheme is becoming more important by the day. I live in New York and the problems in the US are similar but the economy is far more able to absorb an economic downturn than Ireland. These politicians, Cowen et al. who are getting paid the big bucks (should be getting paid a lot less) need to put on their thinking caps and come up with some way to gainfully employ those who have and who are about to lose their jobs. there seem to be a lot more questions than answers at the moment.
Yes John, that’s the problem and Im sure everyone will start thinking about this once the grieving for the Celtic Tiger stops.
First
“The state needs to renege on partnership now and look for cuts in public sector wages. This will save the country from bankruptcy.”
I think this is obvious, yet there is no sense of agreement. Costs have to be cut, we don’t have any money…. Cowan&cos extravagant salaries have a real cost, they could be cut back to average European levels and this could pay the salaries of dozens of people… Apply that to the top 10% of public servants, and were talking many thousands of people…. Or these savings would give confidence that we could get thru 2009 and be able to face into 2010 without being bankrupt
Next figure out what to do ….
@ John Redmond since you live in New York you’ll will now be aware of the package been put together by your president elect , back here we need a similar package unfortunately, our dumb bunch have their heads so far up the back sides of their debt ladened developer buddies from the Galway Race Tent and been on their knees for the bankers , they are not able to think of any solution to get the country moving again.
While our Host here gets commissions to go to the last dot on our Euro notes , Ireland might as well be presently leaderless . So we deserve to go down and maybe after Christmas when the ‘new Europeans’ don’t come back then come Paddies day when all our T.D’s go off to celebrate our national day . Michael O Leary could bring in a few of his well built baggage handlers to stop these idoits landing when they come back.
Then we can get on with fixing this mess our selfs .
Another clear description of what is happening all over the world:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/thenewcapitalism.pdf
Evening all.
David, good article. And not a bank in sight!
The Uruguay comparison is an interesting one, although I do doubt that the implication that Ireland was the golden boy of the third age of globalisation holds true. I think that title would go to India, or maybe China. Although it does bring to mind the reason given by the panglossians for the sustainability of Irish growth over the past decade. “We can sustain this growth because we are catching up with the rest of Europe.” i.e. we can sustain growth because our neighbours are richer than us.
We now seem to be the victims of our success. We have caught up very well with all our neighbours, but in doing so have lost the competitive advantage that led to us being able to sustain the growth in the first place.
David asks ‘why do certain rich countries get poor’. In Uruguay they condemned themselves by injudiciously inflating their public service. But I would offer this in their defence. They did this at a time when big government was they only way to ‘do’ government. Mr. Friedman and his ideas were still a long way down the tracks.
So we don’t have Uruguay’s excuse for doing the wrong thing. But I fear that the current administration does not have the grasp of economic history that could prove helpful in such circumstances. We can only learn from other’s mistakes when we know what they actually were.
On a point of order David, I think Uruguay was refered to as the ‘Switzerland of the Americas’ because of its strict banking secrecy laws rather than its economic growth.
Furrylugs. I won’t be biting the head off anyone yet. It would be a pretty boring place if we all agreed with each other all the time. Although my previously expressed view, that revolution against something is pretty pointless without something to revolt for, still holds. So if you want revolution start with your manifesto, if that sells well we might be onto something. Personally I favour a more soft approach, and now is probably a good time for new ideas to get a hearing. I think you may find an audience in Leinster house if you have one and can find a way through to the civil servants to the actual power brokers.
“if you……..can find a way through to the civil servants to the actual power brokers.”
I did email my local (opposition) TD about the stats quoted in the Dail relating to Corrib gas but I was, apparently, short of suitable brown envelopes, hideaways in Tuscany and private gaelic islands, not to mention an inability for tent erection or yacht berth in Kinsale. I got no reply whatsoever. Won’t waste time on that route again.
As for manifesto, something tells me a variant of the Austrian School might work going forward but the man himself would need to comment on that.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the Reunion Plan though.
What works for one island stuck out on the edge could well work for another? Comme ci Comme ca? N’est-pas?
And I’m not talking about Atlantis.At all At all.
I don’t think I can fix this leak lads. Someone has wrung the threads
Might I suggest that your uber-ones grow moustaches? Its much easier to get people to swallow the bitter pills when hard decisions are required.
ps love your road network by the way. Improving so much. Great gapfiller, the old infrastructure investment. Roads to nowhere but who cares.
Resistance is futile Paddies. Soon you will be assimilated. You too Atlantean boy. Mwaahahhaha!
John Bowman (as The Suit): – Are you aware of a pending economic shitstorm about to dropkick Ireland back in time two decades?
Klaatu McWilliams:- I think you should let me go now……
Also featuring Shane Ross as a young, passive Gort waiting for some fool to push him too far and press the UGLY OUTCOMES buttons and, fresh to your screens, a presidential young ACtor screen named Barack Obama as angry ‘throw the toys out of the pram’ Gort. Its kill the four green fields of Oirland or death by a thousand cuts for the current generation.
At all good church pews and Mass Rocks from January 1st. Advance screenings from Sept 08. Refreshments du jour will be black tae.
What people are saying (about this film, we have only so much space here you Klutz)
“It has resonances of ‘Eat the Peach’ its so positively suicidally Irish in texture. I love it, I feel I’m back in my youth, like a pig in shit” Paddy the Plasterer. Mime Artist, Celtic Tiger plastering techniques visual specialist.
“Whoever wrote this scaremongering tripe should chill out and have a dacent pig sandwich or else kill themselves and do us all a favour, the unpatriotic so and sos” Bertie Ahern, Jobseeker’s Benefit, in a queue talking to Paddy O’Gorman
Rated retarded. Please bring your voting card and a valid ID like your passport with you (special buses running direct to airport, government exit fee waived)
Ah yes, “The Day We Wished the Economy Was Standing Still”. A modern-day reinterpretation of the 1980s production by the same studio (Tax-Broken Productions) entitled “The Day We All Waited in Line to Emigrate”. I hear the remake is even gorier than the original.
Enough of the film allegories already, Pat Rabbitte, its a cheap shot.
Next thing you know we’ll have the financial Nightmare before Christmas, in 3D. As if an extra dimension would add any perspective on things………
Thankfully, they went Burtonesque but more An Bord Scissorhands and less Charlie & the Charvet factory.
Reykjavik – In Parliament Square the weekly saturday protest numbers are dwindling …..recently they replaced their national flag with BONUS the name of the local supermarket controlled by the elite few that caused their national downfall ….this caused an imprisonment and subsequent release of the protester that did it ……the French …were successful with the Fall of The Bastile……the Boston Tea Party was another eventful occassion….any ideas ?
Malcolm – Spot on – actually on Capitol Hill there is the venerated ..: The Bill of Rights and beside it a good copy of….British Magna Carta ………what I am proposing is …alongside that again should be the real original of The Species ………Book of Brehon Law
The apt title for that new disaster movie featuring the Soldiers of Destiny may be “Apocalypse now” (The sequel).
“It is believed the same food processing plant may have supplied animal feed to 38 herds of cattle.”
(Irish Independent)
There must be panick rummaging through the much vaunted “traceability” paperwork in the Dept of Agriculture right now..
Question is: Is your T bone steak also going to be a danger to the rats.?
The current pork ‘crisis’ is a gift to the entire civil service. Consuming 300g of ‘affected’ rashers, including the fat, which are infected, is as carcenogenic as smoking one cigarette. Yet cigarettes are not being taken away from the shelves-because cigarettes are an integral part of the tax system. And 7% of the bacon in the country is affected. Because of the traceability factor, it should be possible to find the affected and unaffected product. But that would, as somebody commented quoting Rahm Emmanuel waste a crisis, as an opportunity to “do something big”.
The civil service are now sitting smugly, hoping to prevent the rest of the community to knock them into the real world. But now, the civil servants have an opportunity to make themselves busy, “investigating”, “regulating”, “monitoring”, “probing” and “fixing”. They are regaining power at the expense of the elected representatives of the community at large. You can forget about reform now. The state has been obsessed with what comes out of a pig backside for the last five years. And it has created a Keynesian style investment surge in the agricultural sector. Now they can issue part II – with reams of regulation, and monitoring procedures on what goes into the other end of the pig.
This pork crisis makes civil service reform, politically impossible until the medium term at the least.
Ah look on the bright side (if you ignore the traffic on the M50 for a moment), there must be less CO2 emissions what will all the factories world wide closing down and everyone afraid to spend a few bob. I expect there’ll be a BBC Horizon programme on the Year the Earth Stood Still and all the Ice Caps were all miraculously restored overnight with polar bears all over the shop. We are certainly getting our money’s worth with the colder winter…augers well for summer 2009?
The thing about downturns is that inefficiencies are called and eliminated. A good winter prepares the plants for an excellent spring and a high yielding autumn. What we have been looking for in this blog will genrally come to pass.
The promary deficit is this country is management. Excess money/ credit just hid this fact. We have the best doers and mullickers and are a willing people. Our tendency to self delude (for whatever reason) is amplified by good times. Management is key at all areas and it is woefully lacking.
One area where is is very obvious and easy to fix are those who administer health and safety legislation. It sets the bar and gleefully polices it in hilteresque fashion. This heavy handed approach never addresses economic impacts or looks at mechanisms which would provide an orderly reaction to country wide impacts. The FSAI management of the piggery feed scandal is a case in point. My immediate recommendations is that we need to cull some of the idiotic health and safety laws which I feel are driving very high cost legal and insurance impacts to the business that serves only to preserve the current status quo. e.g. make the FSAI a 10th of its currrent size and get a proper tracking system in place that can assess damage correctly.
Philip,
What passes for Health & Safety Regs here is far too risk averse. The whole genuine purpose of the new regime was to reduce risk in any form to as low as reasonably practical or ALARP. The logic being if you attempt to eliminate risk, nothing gets done. Getting out of the bed carries some risk.
It follows that the private sector who live with and understand risk can hack this but the public sector who administer the rules are so risk averse by very nature that the regs become unusable and unreasonable.
An Example,
A 45 year old time served carpenter is to hang a door in a large company with strict H&S rules but the 24 year old graduate H&S manager insists on an 80 page safety statement.
I sacked the safety manager for being incompetent.
I dunno Deco, I’d look at this positively…..
Who’s sorting it out? The department officials and officers…. FSAI are nowhere to be seen, they have gone missing in action, hiding from the media…. Nobody wants to speak to them because the bottom line is the people want real information, not useless idiots. I’m sure they are looking busy and readying the powerpoints but they aren’t actually contributing anything.
The staff in the departments with some technical skills are the ones that are doing the real work trying to isolate the problem, get things moving again and even plan the recovery. At least that’s my take on it listening to the coverage.
The whole idea of the quangos was to have a group focussed on a problem to stop it blowing up and take responsibility if this happened, but when they are needed they have gone missing… I hope that Trevor Sergeant has a look around and see who is pulling their weight and who wasn’t in this crisis. And then cuts the budget of the wasters in order to fund a lab here, ideally in cooperation with a university…. We need more technical/skilled resources and less generic management.
The quangos are not even serving the purposes of their political masters which is great news…..
Not sure about that one cigarette argument.If you have been stuffing yourself with sausages for the last 3 months and they came from the wrong farm it sounds like a lot of dioxins PCBs somewhere in your body fat.if this stuff has a half life of 7 years it means that in 14 years time you will still have 50% of those toxins working on mutating your body cells.Perhaps we could all take a civil action against the state .The ushers in Leinster House got a big payoff a few years ago because the were “worried” that their exposure to asbestos in the basement might lead to cancer.!
“Look at the two tables attached. ” Where are the tables you’re referring to?
My Lost Generation > you need to find another topic or lead a revolution, make up your own website, newsletter, leaflets, organise meetings/demonstrations but you cannot keep on going about it
Hi there. In one way you are right, people ranting and raving without carrying out any action or making and pushing through changes is at the end of the day pointless. We are all too aware that the Irish pschye, at least from the founding of the state to now, is to complain about the ‘current bunch’, yet people vote them back in as there are lack of “viable” alternatives. Or from time to time they vote in ‘the other shower’. Allow in more like.
However, revolutions dont come easily – but there are times and environments when a new movement is ripe for starting, developing and blooming. I believe we are in such a time now. So much of the proverbial has hit the fan that the mistakes are even visible to the ‘average’ voter. That is a ripe breeding ground for a new party. Many people of course cant and wont change their spots, in terms of who they vote for, and this may be as high as 60-70%. But the rest can, and from such numbers can at least the start of something begin. We’ve already seen this with the PD creation, mind you, they werent exactly revolutionaries but were disaffected ‘proletariat’ members.
To be fair to David, its good that he raises and keeps raising the issues and he should remain doing so, for a long as he wants/is asked to do so, because at least that is thought-provoking and raises discussions. To the commenters, they can continue to comment. There is no need to stop. A few may be in a position to start something or to participate in something once its started and organised or organising. Most likely it will come from elsewhere, if it comes at all of course ……
It may snow on Xmas day. It may not. Viva la revolucion!
MK1
Hi all, Mediator is right it is pure FRUSTRATION…
and today got worse when my ”brother”-in-law who works in Anglo-Irish bank was actually bragging about the fat raise and the bonus he got! Imagine my disbelief!
First, can anyone explain to me how these guys are still getting raises and bonuses?
Second, could you give me, dear commentators, enough hard facts about Anglo-irish supposed situation, I am not talking about balance sheets, obviously not, or the fact that the only reason he still has a job is probably because of us all ie; the state guarantee. I could hit him but if you help me to gather enough information to piss him off, I probably wont have to.
Sorry I am really boiling.
The blog is not dead.
Revolution could be on the way after all, next sunday at lunch when I see his banker face again.
The thing about Anglo is that everyone has assumed they’re up sh1t creek. The share price has tanked and the market is viewing it as toxic. The weird thing is that I’ve also heard stories about people working in the bank who are saying business isn’t so bad. That developers aren’t defaulting en-masse and the panic is overdone. If this is so there are a few possibilities. The staff are suffering from mass-delusion OR there’s a delay and the effects will be felt early next year OR the market has wildly over-reacted to a bad but not catastrophic situation.. Of course the state guarantee is hugely benefiting them but the shares are looking cheap in all but a worst case scenario.
Unfortunately, in the short term investment is based on what Keynes described as establishing an opinion as to what the average opinion of the average opinion will be. That still looks grim in the short term but things could improve next year. A few smart commentators are suggesting that equity prices for financials will improve in the middle of next year. If they believe that they’ll start investing in early 2009 and spend a few months talking up their investment. 10 million anglo shares might have changed hands today which means that there had to be buyers as well as sellers. So it’s possible that however irritating your brother in law is, he mightn’t be as screwed as you’d like him to be.
Lost – I think over lunch you should look your brother in the eye and …say…absolutely Nothing……just watch how he eats and does he chew the skin ( his or yours ) and whether he swallows first without tasting the flavour and if he adds flavouring at all …..and if he talks while eating …..these observations are serious points to know for all the encumbent borrowers that have to face the execution in the new year .
To those who were talking about the feminists and the stay-at-home moms …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
A professor of commercial law from Harvard gives a lecture at UC Berkely on the effect of all those second incomes in the last generation. Surprise surprise … everyone is *worse* off. And by the way, this *female* professor is not exactly your stereotypical anti-feminist.
It just inflates prices until two incomes become the requirement without any competitive advantage. The end result is a degradation in life quality and allegedly more productivity. Still, how productive can someone be when they’re enduring long commutes from satellite towns with every bit of cash earned going on either the mortgage or the child minders? At a certain point it’s depressing. Especially so when the house equity goes negative. And we call this progress???
She does an excellent job of discovering the truth.
It reaffirms my belief that average house prices need to come down to a multiple of 3 times the average single earner’s annual salary. The way things are going, we might get there in a few years. In my opinion, the housing bubble started in 1995, not 2004.
Hello again,
I appreciate John Allen’s comment but could you someone still provide me with an answer and some information in case I cannot keep silent.
You could just ask him to justify his bonus, seen as the bank has seen fit to suspend dividend payments to shareholders. The owners are getting shafted while the employees are following the Politician’s lead and giving themselves a nice fat bonus. As I write Anglo is down 96.16% for the year, i.e. it has retained 3.84% of it’s value for it’s owners. Bet they’d like to have a ‘chat’ with your in-law. Maybe you could make room for some of them around the sunday dinner table.
Make him take ye out somewhere nice and expensive, sure isnt that what were all told to do.. go out and spend
or else spend the meal slagging him about getting another free lunch. Make a show of putting your wallet in your inside pocket…
google “angle irish bank solvency” heres their share price, http://www.angloirishbank.com/Investors/Share_Information/Share_Price_Graph/ tell him to take the raise in cash and put the money in a bank that’ll survive 2009
Actually if you’re that mad and sure of your facts email joe@rte.ie… that should make you popular around the dinner table
“My Lost generation”. You brother in law in ANIB is doing what many people in this country see as the ultimate expression of their personal identity. He is being proud as possible. He is gloating. Pride got us into this mess. Maintaining our pride has caused us to lose our collective self respect. But as they say pride comes before the fall. And we are in fall mode as an economy and a society.
Alright – forget figures, and look at the facts. The figures are always historical when expressed. And the ‘projections’ from bankers and bank economists have proven incorrect.
ANIB have as assets loans to commercial property owners, and commercial property developers. ANIB are more exposed in this area than any other bank, or at least no other bank boasts to be as exposed relative to their overall loan book. Mostly, we should expect this to be in retail property, shopping centres etc… And repayments for these loans depends on rents for commercial property. And rent for commercial property depends on retail sales levels, and margins. So the entire asset base of ANIB is based on retail sales. We are being promised a longer than usual recession by official sources. Bear in mind that ‘officialdom’ never tells us the true scale of the problem. Retail statistics are declining. Unless you are in Newry.
Well, what does that say about the future of ANIB ???
Tell your brother in law, that you are going to scale back your spending and do the shopping in Lidl and farmer’s markets (the rent goes to the local authority). That you expect a long recession, and that you want to reduce all your debts/save. And that you will scale down your lifestyle to fit this. This will unsettle his sense of security. I use this approach when talking to people in the motor trade, property business. I tell them how others I know told me about ways to cut corners. They scorn me. But it drives them bonkers :))))) They need everybody spending stupidly. The consumption level can be based on the need to make an irrational statement of status and pride. One dissenting voice, is one too many.
There will be liquidation sales in Q1, 2009. Many are tenants providing money for repayments for ANIB loans. Each liquidation sale is a single drop of water. This means a slow drip by drip torture of the ANIB asset portfolio :)))))
The elections next year will push FF to get tough on the banks. It will stay soft on the big two. But FF will find it possible, and perhaps even necessary to be hard on the smaller banks, as a means to rebuild trust with the bulk of the electorate. Unlike Ahern, Biffo can be very direct, and make very fast and quite ruthless decisions.
Then your brother-in-law will be lose his smugness.
My lost generation – ANIB have a business model, that inspires no trust in the international markets. Because their asset base is of questionable value, based on historical experience of severe property crash driven economic recessions. The business model is the problem.
David “Why do certain rich countries get poor?” I’m still not too sure, but Martin Wolf certainly sets outs well how Ireland could get poor real soon.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce9378ce-c624-11dd-a741-000077b07658.html
In the above article Mr Wolf has written a very good epitaph for the Celtic Tiger.
“If a country has relatively weak international competitiveness, an inflexible labour market and an irrevocably fixed exchange rate, the end of the property boom will reduce domestic demand, without generating a significant offsetting expansion in net exports. The fiscal deterioration is then likely to be large and sustained.”
Lorcan,
I think it’s your civic duty to send that to young Lenehan. He might get some handle on the issues. Scary stuff.
This one is clinically to the point regarding recovery;
http://mises.org/story/3248
David. Dont you know you are not allowed to call for pay/job cuts in the public service. This is public service ‘bashing’ and upsets them and their unions…
Can bench marking go backwards to match the private sectors declining wages?, and why is security of tenure given to civil servants?? (No doubt an idea by the same civil servants who edited out the ESRI report that suggested an 8000 cut in the amount of public servants).
We should be marching on the streets on this issue.
To John Allen, Shane, Lorcan, Deco, Garry, thank you very much for your help and comments. I calmed down a bit and actually realised those raises and bonuses could be their swan song, I doubt it will happen again next December.
I saw on the ISE website http://www.ise.ie that Anglo-Irish ord share price is down to 0.43. Most of the employees of Anglo were advised to buy some of these shares. Is that a good idea? knowing there were up around 11 euros 12 months ago? I suppose no one knows…Who cares.
Thanks again.
Folks,
On that Anglo issue, am I right in recollecting that when Rabobank set up “Irelands first Online Bank” that the 5 ugly sisters orchestrated a smear campaign questioning the capitalisation or liquidity or whatever of same start-up?
Pity Rabo don’t see fit to get some payback. At .43 c I wouldn’t trust Anglo with me confirmation money.
lost, what’s the upside and downside for employees buying shares in the company that pays their wages but has lost >90% of its value
the upside is obviously great if they get back to anything approaching their former share price.
The downside if the price drops another 40 cents….. they have no job and have lost on their investment
It’d be interesting to see who buys if they think about it in those terms, they ‘should’ be better informed than the rest of us but its often hard to see the wood from the trees.
I’d simplify it like this. Currently the average opinion is that Anglo are snookered. Their assets were hugely inflated, their debts are risky and their long term growth prospects will be damaged irreparably by the recession. I’m not saying that’s my opinion or that it’s incorrect but it’s the average opinion reflected in the share price. If Anglo doesn’t go to the wall over the next 12 months that average opinion will drift from catastrophic to reduced future prospects and difficult trading conditions. Management then have a chance to put some things right and the share price may recover. So it’s really a bet on whether you think Anglo will fall or not.
The same goes for staff. The efficient market hypothesis suggests they should act rationally in purchasing shares reflecting their knowledge of the situation . However, the rationality of EMH buyers has been discredited in numerous studies and the country’s top bankers have lost a tonne of personal cash over the past few months. The banking elite called it wrong following (before?) the guarantee, misunderstanding public sentiment and distrust. So Mr “lost Generation” don’t rely too much on what staff are doing. If you want to gamble on Anglo shares then do but even if the bank doesn’t fall you’ll still be in for a very rocky few months. Don’t buy Anglo because you expect to see quick returns.
Also, you brother in law sounds a bit of a muppet if he’s boasting about his bonus. I wouldn’t buy based on his encouragement. Only buy using money you don’t care about losing.
Hate to sound petty, but on my way through the M1 the car in front with kids in it passed the toll booth without paying , I asked the lady if the guy in front had no money. no she said hes a garda, I said but he has kids in the car and she said yeah I know and hes on his mobile.
Anglo by the way is the I.R.A bank everything about it is suspicious and Sean Quinn for that matter.
The parallels of Uruguay’s fall from grace are interesting for Ireland but I am intrigued as to how, given its colonial history and location, it achieved prosperity in the first place. I wasn’t surprised to learn that a minority are doing very well for themselves and I would not be surprised if large tracts of land are still held by a small number of owners (see Guillermo’s post above). So in a spirit of mild enquiry I consulted wikipedia (bearing in mind Deco’s reservations about them concerning Ireland). I was looking at the material with parallels with this country in mind.
Documentation is sparse about the original inhabitants, the Charrua, who are described as having been semi-nomadic hunter gatherers numbering no more than 5 or 10,000. Yet a couple of sentences later we are informed that the conquest by the Europeans was delayed not only by an absence of gold but also by fierce resistance from the natives. Not bad going from the equivalent of the home attendance of Doncaster Rovers and rather stiffer opposition than you would expect from so-called virgin territory. So is this selective memory or wishful thinking? With Crotty in mind I had expected some kind of an agricultural community and so I checked out the pages for Brazil where the natives are described similarly – but also as “partly agricultural”. The numbers there pre-Columbus were about 1m, but apparently recent archaeological evidence indicates a higher figure of about 3m. Now all this proves absolutely nothing and I’m just thinking out loud.
The comparisons only go so far as most of the natives were largely eradicated and there was massive immigration towards the end of the 19th century. However there was massive emigration in the 1970s and 1980s (600,000) and there’s a tantalizing reference to the failure of agrarian reform and the failure to increase wheat production (one wonders if like Ireland land is held free – ie no tax is payable. Anyone care to bet that it’s not?)
But there is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel. They won the World Cup twice, in 1930 (when they were at home) and in 1950 in Brazil and wikipedia proudly boasts that they are the smallest country population-wise to win the trophy. So if we can crank up immigration and achieve the EU-funded Atlantic golf-course/ heritage centre future some have envisioned we could smash that record, although we’d need to host the competition and sort out out the refs and officials first..
Coldblow, just as general information
The last Charrua´s were killed in 1830, since then there were no more natives living in the country. Spanish and Italian inmigration, basically, populated the country since then, with some french, british and few irish.
I don´t think land is in held in a small number of owners, but yes, lot of owner´s sold their land to big international forest companies, making a huge amount of money ( land prices raised by 3 during last 4 years), I guess something similar happened in Ireland but not with forestry owners.
Finally, you ticked Uruguay´s biggest problem. We won the world championship in 1950, in Maracana, Brasil, with a crowd of 200.000 brazilians, and then we thought we were “the best” , and lost humility. Then the slump began. 58 years later , believe me, we still talk about Maracana¡¡
best
guillermo
Our host sounds a very ominous note at the tail end of this commentary
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/brace-yourself-now-for-the-deckland-depression-1568876.html
Furrylugs: Harvey Norman, an Australia-based company, has opened 13 stores in Ireland since arriving in 2003. Its full-year loss in Ireland, where it employs more than 500 people, amounted to €5.5m. The figures include interest payments of only €1.3m, which suggests that the development was mostly done with ‘real Australian money’ and not just loans from Irish banks.
Regarding other aspects of David’s latest Indy piece (written in the middle of the Indian Ocean?):
I think he should refrain from proffering obvious generalities about Deckland people. They have enough on their plate already. Articles about disasters like theirs sell newspapers but in the absence of a call for a ‘Deckland Relief Fund’ they only compound widespead misery. How long since David did some solid door-to door research in an Irish housing estate?
As I said above Malcolm, I think it’s crazy when we need all hands on deck here that one of our finest is on commission abroad. I took the tone of the article not to be populist but realist in that the “Deckland Relief Fund” (Good description BTW) is looming and needs attention. I took it to focus more on the effect of the commercial crisis rather than the cause, which we here have done to death.
And the implicit warning of unforeseen consequences if the middle class intelligensia are left to hang.
On Harvey Norman, “Go Harvey Go” would be the chant of the shareholders in Oz given your figures above.
I’d have to come off the turfshed on this one and declare myself a DMcW supporter given his track record. He hasn’t got much wrong so far and the “Triumvirate” don’t seem statesmanlike enough to leave the past behind and listen to him. Shane Ross was scathing again this morning as well.
If this particular article causes “Deckland” to rise and demand help just like the other pressure groups then it’s achieved its goal.
Furrylugs: Like you, I usually support DMcW’s efforts to focus attention on economic realities in Ireland; however, when his arguments get stretched a bit thin, for whatever reason, this too needs to be mentioned.
I am sure the triumvirate (actually di-virate cum femina) were glad to see the back of him in present circumstances. When Sarkozy was here, I wonder if someone said to him “Who will rid me of this meddlesome economist?” —Remember Beckett, and beware of men with machetes, David.
“di-virate cum femina”
Very good. Sounds like a communicable disease.
I don’t really want to pre-empt the new thread but I agree with every word of that post, Furrylugs. DMcW is not criticizing Deckland but if anything the opposite. And he’s right to keep on driving the message home, just as with the banks. Something needs to be done for Deckland and if that involves moral hazard then so be it. You need risk takers and you need prudence. I don’t know much about the first I’m afraid (something i actually regret strange as that may sound) but I was always good on the thrift being the only student in the history of the universe to come home at the end of term and give his working brother a few quid to buy himself a drink!
the only student in the history of the universe to come home at the end of term and give his working brother a few quid to buy himself a drink!
Ah come on now Ted!!
Anna – you just recalled a holiday memory I once use to have when I was in Enniscorthy staying with my grandmother …..during the wet summer days – a short fat lady use to call around to the local houses with her donkey and cart and in it was a massive huge Barrell that she use to fill up with every tuesday …everything she could get from all the households …..I found her enterprise exciting …..the donkey was happy …..she was busy ….the people received a free disposal service ….the fat lady received all her Organic PIGS FEED FREE ….that allowed her to make a Profit…..and it was tax free too ….she brought confidence to the neighbourhoods she visited and lots of good decent talks and chats …..there was a positive sense of Progress around …She had Dreams …and I found many of my Enterprising dreams from hers ….I would volunteer to carry the small buckets of ‘ SWILL’ from the local houses near my grandmothers and empty them into the Barrell …that increased my local popularity for the short annual duration I stayed in Wexford…and of course I practiced the art of managing the Donkey Transport ….and developing a comraderie with this fine animal ( M’Asal Beag Dubh ) …this lady lived …on the hill ….where the terraced houses had half front doors …..these houses are now long demolished and in its place is …Pettits Supermarket …..we need more dreams again in these troubled times
Jiohn Allen,
I’m quite satisfied that you are lucky enough to possess an IQ in excess of 150 but you need to realise the rest of us may not. Can you please simplify the prosaic imagery in keeping with the tone of the rest of the blog. Please?
Furrylugs thanks for the link to David’s latest article.
David-spot on-concerning those infuriating ads.
We can observe the creation of Deckland since the early 1990s. It started on the fringe of Dublin in places like Swords, Leixlip and Leopardstown. It then spread across about 40k in each direction over communities that were overrun. It started as a result of an investment boom in high tech multinationals. And yes, it is a very optimistic place. In fact, optimism has triumphed over realism in Deckland for the last fifteen years. It is a one way ticket to the New Irish Dream – an Irish copy of the American Dream. As DMcW commented before, “Denver without the weather”. It gave strong endorsement to Bertie Ahern when it’s polar opposite – the impoverished, windswept, pessimistice Atlantic coast voted Independent moaner candidates and the Celtic Snail end of Fine Gael. It is a Modern societal model that is brash, Americanized, liberal, consumerist and individualistic. The Harvey Norman soundtrack taps directly into this feeling. A feeling of celebrationism, brashness, individualism and selfishness.
The problem is that the Deckland economy is based on all sorts of ludicruous unrealistic assumptions. The types of assumptions that Kustler rips apart in his critique of suburban excess. The biggest assumptions relates to the money, resources, and financing. The dot com hit Deckland, but easy credit and the celebrationist culture managed to overcome all of that. It was a big brave experiment. Like any experiment based on flawed assumptions, it ends in a disaster. Decklanders are leaving in Ireland in their thousands. They are more loyal to a lifestyle than a community. Unlike the working class in traditional areas of towns like Navan, Arklow etc.. or the agricultural community in rural Leinster.. there is no sense of solidarity, but rather a sense of status. It was the rural community that started a shop local campaign-the decklanders are too busy trying to overtake each other in SUVs on the M1 to Newry. It is a step down from 5th Avenue, NY,NY., I suppose.
Our government are not getting to the bottom of the economic problem. But they seem to have more of a clue than anybody else however in Irish public life. But Cowen et co are achieving little, at the slowest pace imaginable. They have not made mistakes like Brown and NewLabour. But the politicians are still avoiding the public sector malaise. The banks are still in a state of complete denial. The public sector are in hiding. The teachers have decided the best defense is an offense-and they are on the offense. Retailing is in shock therapy. And construction is slowly entering hangover mode.
Apparently concerning the Pork issue – there is now a three way stand-off between the state, the industry and the banks. The state is trying to compell the banks to extend overdrafts. The industry wants compensation. And the banks are in a liquidity bottleneck. The thing is, pork is actually a productive industry that brings money into communities in parts of Ireland that have nothing else going for them. The banks are waiting for the government to bailout the industry, so that they will have another layer of gaurantee before they seek the money from other banks. What an unbelievable mess. We need to sack the bankers. Then the international lenders will know that we are serious about fixing our financial sector. This is the real lesson from the pork crisis. We must do something before a sector larger than the pork industry gets hit with a crisis.
Deco,
I might have done a disservice by linking. We’ll have the article eviscerated before it’s posted!
Anyway, just going back over the posts for the last few months, it struck me that with Deckland, Bacon Roll Man, The Bankers et al we’re not really a cohesive society at all. Just a collection of disparate peer groups collectively called Irish by an accident of birth. I’ve never experienced the “American Dream” glue that holds the States together but I have seen the power of the “Realm” in action across the water.
We seem very insular and self centered by other standards and we don’t seem to be maturing as a nation. Like the scolded child, we seek to blame someone else for our woes.
George III or some one said “If you want to baste an Irishman, you’ll find plenty Irishmen to do it” (or something like that).
There’s no over arching sense of unity, or as you say, solidarity. We seem to have supplanted tribal warfare for tribal status and bought into all that is considered “naff” by our neighbours. I think there’s an inability for self analysis inherent in our genes.
Pity all our immigrants are emigrants. We needed to dilute the gene pool to move forward.
Furrylugs – this blog is about Economics…..and in true spirit …..it must be expressed without ‘hinderence or narrow mindness ‘
OK so
Can we leave the discussion of deckland till it turns up here? Ye’ll have nothing for me to read tomorrow
If ye are looking for a quick fix, try Jeremy Clarkson who compares his weekend in Dublin to the last days of the Roman empire while reviewing a sports car… Well worth a read. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/driving/jeremy_clarkson/article5292547.ece
Furrylugs-it is pure selfishness. I mean the there was solidarity existed in the 1980s in our towns, cities and villages. But some time in the early 1990s it became “me, myself and I”. Look how cool I am. Look how important I am. Look what I can buy. Look what I can get away with. And ultimately, it became, “look at my status”. That is “modern Ireland”. I have seen it since the late 1980s grow and grow. Just listen to the sense of humour of Irish people, especially the younger age groups. The sense of humour is all twisted with empty jokes about self, and selfish concerns. Responsibility is itself seen as a some kind of joke. The biting humour of Behan, or John B.Keane, is completely absent. The humour of mid 20th Century was about exposing hypocrisy, selfishness and irresponsibility. It was culturally useful. But today humour has died and been replace by people laughing at their own stupid ditties, and others sympathizing with them. It is an expression of the consumerist mindset. And it is boring. It is no wonder Irish people need to get wasted in each others company. Many are drifting towards a complete bubble of self/individualism. It is empty and soul-less. But it drove a lifestyle mania.
How will people with this mindset cope with a crisis that exists at an individual and societal level ? Nobody seems to care about their neighbour the other side of the fence, except to appear better than him. The antidote is to opt out of the status obsession. But, from what I can see, a lot are moving to Australia. Young people that go bankrupt are just leaving for Australia, and getting the lifestyle that they ‘deserved’ at a lower cost. Lifestyle, it seems is the one thing to which the owe the most loyalty. There is no attempt to be serious about responsibility and the rest of the community. And anyway the ERI is leading the way, making the wrong cultural values successful. Most people make a few token gestures ‘for charity’, which is good for one’s status, and any sense of guilt can be quickly forgotten, about the high level of selfishness.
Responsible Ireland is dead and gone – it’s with Brendan Behan/John B.Keane in the grave !!
A superb summary Deco of the current Ireland and the shallow and superficial culture of it, one I am most happy exiled from!!
But will it all change now that the money grabbing veneer has been tarnished so ruthlessly?
Or as Behan said;
““Other people have a nationality. The Irish and the Jews have a psychosis.”
or again, “This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever.” Sigmund Freud, speaking about the Irish…
Looks like we’re copped then. The whole wprld saw us coming and turned us over.
years ago I read somewhere about Japan, likening it to an open hand. But when attacked could close in to a fist, a one as it were. Here we have little oneness, just a bunch of bods hanging on an island, it seems. Where the call to nation lately was seen with correct eye, for one has to ask which nation was the bloke on about. All in all you have to view the attitude of the medics with agreement for had they done other they would have been seen as fools.
Someone asked/or said about the USA and what keeps it. And keeps it beyond the obvious. The why of the place. Well I hold it is hope, and that there are people willing to defend that concept.
Here we have all of the nasty hang-overs of having two or more ideas of what the place is about. But with people who have no grounded belief in that place. They may as well be in Iowa, Ipswich or the gold coast, while wedded and welded to this is the utter terror of failing.
No word from me for a few weeks, as I have been too heavily submerged in that greatest of all German facinations..arbeit!
Something which could save Ireland still if applied in the steady, unwavering, remorseless (and yes, brutally dull) manner in which the Germans apply themselves to it.
But what fabulous reading three weeks of this forum makes in catching up in one go!?
Quite riveting arguments, enlightened opinion and genuine information, in a manner the Media have long since abandoned attempting to capture.
A very positive outcome also reading between the lines, as in amongst the overwhelming sense of gloom and disaster is a genuine call for a bit more social, patriotic and community sense to now be applied to market economics instead of the cut throat ruthless greed that led inevitably to the current malaise.
(It was this sense that distinguished DmcW in the avaricious days when it was unpopular- that led me to this forum in the first place.)
But before I make any point or comment, I would like to appeal to the Webmaster to possibly reintroduce a ratings system of some sort?
I know this failed recently before but perhaps it was too elaborate- I thought a simple Youtube like Green or Red ratings system can certainly help direct a reader with less time (like myself) to more pertinent and informative or relevant comments??
The casual reader would appreciate it I think, and I do believe personally that this forum has particular interest and benefit to a wider public also at large who may find it easier to navigate through the content-
Kindly consider.
Hello All
The following article gives us a sneak preview of where we’re headed next year. Just at the borrowing
pipeline has been shutdown to private industry it looks like hitting governments next and we’re
going to be at the back of a very long line when we look to borrow funds next year to meet the funding gap.
Public service jobs may be relatively safe but we could rapidly arrive at a situation of
“When she went there the cupboard was bare” as regards our public servants getting paid
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/458a5ca6-c6e1-11dd-97a5-000077b07658.html
It some ways, while DmcW’s postings are informative I’m starting to get the feeling that things are even worse
than he realises (or realises and isn’t telling). It may soon become time to put our faith in something other than
economics to sort out the problems coming down the pipeline. This stuff may be too big…
Mediator,
DMcW has got it right so far and your last paragraph voices what we all fear. The complete meltdown of world economics as we know it. Fair play for the comment. If “Money” loses all credibility, since banks are now eunuchs, the governments who have subsumed the risk will become the target. But if “Money” has no value, who are all these investors and what is their wealth based on? Tradeable commodities? Cocaine? Oil? King Edwards?
I must go to a DMcW event where he talks openly. The articles on the popular papers are designed to “Sell” reality to the average voter for their own good and admittedly the rhetoric is a little simplistic.. We’re a bit more informed here.
If I could afford it, I’d engage him myself to hear best, worst and realistic forecasts.
Then at least I could make an informed guess about the rest of my career.
William Keegan, the long time economics columnist in the Observer, admitted on Sunday that he was worried and used the “D” word for the first time. He said that he had come under criticism to call it as he sees it. I suppose the trouble with this is that it could be self-fulfilling.
I was clearing out the attic and came across David’s Generation Game and last night I re-read the chapter about Uruguay (“Reckless Trading”). It is excellent and the parallels uncanny. For me it all boils down to his line about the price you pay if you fail to “foster self-reliance and entrepreneurship”. What is is about the structure of our economy that we can do this abroad but not at home?
Go Harvey Gone ! (look for a closing down sale in Q1)
DFBRM – Dioxin-Free Bacon Roll Man (poor BRM didnt realise what he was eating!)
The Bhaincers (say it ‘as gaelige’)
And as Christy Moore might lament in the not-too-distance future:
“Ooooooh oh-oh-ooooh, I wish I was back home in Deckland”