I like the explanation, especially the brinkmanship, that’s why I like DMcW’s take – but it worries me that there is no reaction from the ‘authorities’ – which is interpreted by George Lee as an indication they are about to re-capitalise. (BTW) is George an economist? he seem to be too honest, tells it as it is, doesn’t use much jargon…..)

Would I be naive in suggesting that they go the whole hog and nationalise, on a declared short term basis, and use the clout to organise credit for business to get going, stop speculation with supposed non-client money, and then sell the customer base back to ‘the market’

The only fly in that ointment – the ‘sale’ of eircon (… not a spelling mistake).

As to the rugby, I have spent a good deal of time in NZ, a country with the same population as Ireland, but we need lessons in intensity, perhaps we need a protestant work ethic…..;)

The banks have been discussed before. You and I and most people know that many of the banks loans will ‘underperform’. That’s bank-speak for lose money. Running a bank, the aim would be to allow those loans to work themselves out as best as possible, giving ‘breathing’ space where possible, etc. Maintain a focus on operations, lower costs, increase normal banking profits. When giving out new credit/loans, make sure it is safer than ‘houses’, and ensure there are healthy margins (ie: bps’s, basis points). Increase capital, yes, but on the best terms achievable and only when absolutely necessary, ala BSCH in Spain.

Its brinkmanship.

However, no matter who runs a bank now, the damage may already be done. Just like changing a paddler in a canoe which is about to go over the niagra falls, it may already be too late. We just dont know. Changing the paddlers wont do any harm though.

As for the rugby, well, we tried ….. the All-Blacks are one of the best rugby producing nations in the world. Nothing to be overly ashamed of with a 22-3. That first penalty-try score changed the game.

MK1

The EU is chock-filled with largely unaccountable administrators who hold vast power in fund allocation. An EU wide civil service would resemble the Irish model but with even more bloat, much higher salaries, bigger expenses and less accountability. A form of this is already in place. It’s not that the intentions are bad or that there aren’t some brilliant individuals working in the Eurocracy but the politics are diverse and contradictory. In the “Yes Minister” books they used to describe it as “pigs with their snouts in the trough” and while it’s cruel it can’t be entirely dismissed. Whatever about Ganley we don’t want an EU super state.

As I was watching the US election I started thinking that an inspirational leader can coax even the most conservative, superstitious and xenophobic electorate on the planet into voting for them.

Apoiogies if I’ve offended anyone :)

I come here as a non-economist – I think I said that, hoping for enlightenment. Thank goodness for DMcW, he at least makes suggestions.

Sorry to be negative, I woke this morning feeling depressed about Irish rugby and thinking of emigrating to NZ, but they’ve just elected a right wing gov…… is there no safe haven??

;)

When Government (if ever) regulates the finance and regulates business making sure it operates generally, and benefits its workers you’ll have a much better profitable society.

The market thought it no longer needed government to function, and government, through the laissez-faire reganonomics of the 80′s thought it was no longer its job to govern the function of the markets.

Now, twenty five years later we are seeing that laissez-faire economic policy has sown the seeds of its own destruction. With government unwilling to interfere in the market, the players in the market have lost the only referee the market ever had. Perhaps government has confused the French term Laissez-faire with an anglicised ‘Lazy Fare’. i.e. by doing nothing we are doing our job.

The past few months has highlighted the futility of the non-intervention approach to market over-sight.

So today we had to G-20 meeting in the US, trying to unwind a quarter of a century of inaction during an afternoon meeting. It has produced the usual soothing rhetoric for the masses, but it seems to me that it is far too little far too late.

I am reminded of the parable of the prodigal son. The markets cut of their links with the father (government) and having spent their good fortune, find themselves ‘working as swineherds’ (i.e. in the sh*t). They now return to their father’s house seeking forgiveness. In the bible the prodigal son was welcomed with open arms and the fattened calf was killed to celebrate his return. Our governments are also killing the fattened calf, only problem being we have to borrow said calf from someone else.

There is a mis-match with this parable and the current state of affairs though. In the biblical story, the prodical son is contrite. Today, our market prodical sons are arrogant and unrepentant. Should we be so merciful?

We tend to forget that most countries thro’out Europe had it hard. Had famines, depopulation etc. We are definately not heading that way – ever. Not unless some nutters call WWIII.

Ireland will roll back a bit…About 5 or so years – when in my opinion, the place was worked better. I am still hopeful. And once the population learn they can make a difference, things will change for the better,

In the meantime, Politics and bank management etc will trundle as is because their exit time has yet to arrive. I think events will be precipated in the coming 8-10 weeks as credit lock up starts to properly assert itself. There will be a year of social uproar and a recession. But this might put proper management on the agenda.

Our costs will come down. Imports will be dearer and we’ll be cheaper again and I would not underestimate the power of the irish Delegation in the US to keep thngs ticking over. Call this a case of being 2nd time lucky…let’s see,