Comments on: What we must do to get the monkey off our backs http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs The website of economist, author and broadcaster, David McWilliams Thu, 09 Feb 2012 02:30:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: Alex Power http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-43988 Alex Power Sun, 02 Nov 2008 23:02:10 +0000 http://111862679#comment-43988 Having just tuned in to this thread, I have to congratulate David on the article. Very succint, if a little simplistic. One of the comments posted was regarding the fact that US banks' only recourse is foreclosure, unlike Irish and other European banks and this is correct. The mark to market ratio is not as relevant in that case. I think the stability problem of the retail banks is overstated. If the Irish retail banks are anything like banks in New Zealand and Australia, they will restructure mortgages as much as possible to avoid bankruptcies and the ensuing flood of cheap houses driving the market down even further. There is no doubt that there is a property correction happening and it looks like about a 30% correction on this side of the world. But it's manageable. The predictions are for an initial fall (which has happened) and a flat property market for up to 9 years. Like I say, it's manageable. What is of greater concern is the lack of liquidity forcing companies to delay expansion plans, etc. This is already causing job losses, which reduces average housing affordability, which depresses the market even further and will have long term economic effects a la the dole queues, social welfare costs and resulting high taxes of the 80's. Brendan W - they have been laughing at us for a lot longer than 15 years. I left in 1988 and they had been laughing at us since Jack Lynch in the '70s at that stage. So, I estimate they have been laughing at the Irish electorate for about 40 years. Having said that, the Irish electorate keeps putting the same clowns back in power, so maybe everyone gets what they deserve. The political problem in Ireland is actually a cultural problem. Dodginess in general is a laudable trait in Ireland. I suspect it stems from a time when anyone who could "get one over" the foreign masters, was a bit of a hero. It may sound a bit boy-scoutish, but , it's time to stop turning a blind eye to dishonesty and to be less tolerant of what the yanks call "Graft". Graft (not the good kind) is endemic in Irish society and people need to see the larger impact it has on society. By the way - the health service. Why not just have a chat with the UK NHS about merging the health services and funding it proprtionately? Still too close to 1916? Having just tuned in to this thread, I have to congratulate David on the article. Very succint, if a little simplistic. One of the comments posted was regarding the fact that US banks’ only recourse is foreclosure, unlike Irish and other European banks and this is correct. The mark to market ratio is not as relevant in that case.

I think the stability problem of the retail banks is overstated. If the Irish retail banks are anything like banks in New Zealand and Australia, they will restructure mortgages as much as possible to avoid bankruptcies and the ensuing flood of cheap houses driving the market down even further. There is no doubt that there is a property correction happening and it looks like about a 30% correction on this side of the world. But it’s manageable. The predictions are for an initial fall (which has happened) and a flat property market for up to 9 years. Like I say, it’s manageable.

What is of greater concern is the lack of liquidity forcing companies to delay expansion plans, etc. This is already causing job losses, which reduces average housing affordability, which depresses the market even further and will have long term economic effects a la the dole queues, social welfare costs and resulting high taxes of the 80′s.

Brendan W – they have been laughing at us for a lot longer than 15 years. I left in 1988 and they had been laughing at us since Jack Lynch in the ’70s at that stage. So, I estimate they have been laughing at the Irish electorate for about 40 years. Having said that, the Irish electorate keeps putting the same clowns back in power, so maybe everyone gets what they deserve.

The political problem in Ireland is actually a cultural problem. Dodginess in general is a laudable trait in Ireland. I suspect it stems from a time when anyone who could “get one over” the foreign masters, was a bit of a hero. It may sound a bit boy-scoutish, but , it’s time to stop turning a blind eye to dishonesty and to be less tolerant of what the yanks call “Graft”. Graft (not the good kind) is endemic in Irish society and people need to see the larger impact it has on society.

By the way – the health service. Why not just have a chat with the UK NHS about merging the health services and funding it proprtionately? Still too close to 1916?

]]> By: John McDermott http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42303 John McDermott Wed, 01 Oct 2008 11:07:46 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42303 "@ Shane Dempesy , it is far from laughable that we should now be protesting on the streets, we have had fifteen years of a Government laughing at us , from European infrastructural funding been wasted on consultancy fees and engineers reports with a transport system still not modernized , a health system that lags in the bottom of the European system a education system where we still have our youth going into pre fab buildings, foreign oil companies been sold Irish rights and state protection from genuine locals who obect, tribunals still running when we all ready know the answers. Almost one thousand government agencies, a leader with 217 direct departmental employees. Drug dealers in every city, town and village in the country, Hosing estates half built and below European standards. Semi State companies paying Managers some of the highest salaries in Europe a civil services that doesn’t work. And a cartel of Bankers, developers and State media that have been spinning lies to the population for over a decade . If you think this is laughable ,..you have a sick sense of humor" Well said,all true. I'm just back from Rome.It is a city much like Dublin. Lousy infrastructure.Chaotic traffic jams.One wonders how it functions. They have two metro routes which cross the city in an "X". Without them,-total chaos!. Would any of the alternative options/coalitions in Ireland really change anything? Most young people don't vote, thus the state is in the hands of a veritable Mafia Alliance of vested interests,principally: farmers ,developers & public service employees. “@ Shane Dempesy , it is far from laughable that we should now be protesting on the streets, we have had fifteen years of a Government laughing at us , from European infrastructural funding been wasted on consultancy fees and engineers reports with a transport system still not modernized , a health system that lags in the bottom of the European system a education system where we still have our youth going into pre fab buildings, foreign oil companies been sold Irish rights and state protection from genuine locals who obect, tribunals still running when we all ready know the answers. Almost one thousand government agencies, a leader with 217 direct departmental employees. Drug dealers in every city, town and village in the country, Hosing estates half built and below European standards. Semi State companies paying Managers some of the highest salaries in Europe a civil services that doesn’t work. And a cartel of Bankers, developers and State media that have been spinning lies to the population for over a decade .
If you think this is laughable ,..you have a sick sense of humor”
Well said,all true.
I’m just back from Rome.It is a city much like Dublin. Lousy infrastructure.Chaotic traffic jams.One wonders how it functions. They have two metro routes which cross the city in an “X”. Without them,-total chaos!.

Would any of the alternative options/coalitions in Ireland really change anything?
Most young people don’t vote, thus the state is in the hands of a veritable Mafia Alliance of vested interests,principally: farmers ,developers & public service employees.

]]> By: John McDermott http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42258 John McDermott Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:53:49 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42258 "Look at that screen! ISEQ down 10pc…BOI and AIB down 20pc and Anglo down 35! Here comes the tsunami folks…" Yeah, and "King (Canute) Lenehan" has held back the waves -for now.! Meanwhile anybody who bought Anglo Irish Bank (the speculators bank) yesterday is up 67% today!! There's a lot of money to be made out there boys . Atypical recession stock market gyration. So when will the irish banks be grateful for their rescue and force the sale of empty housing estates and overpriced apartments all around the country at real prices-and thereby begin the real healing process - facing up to reality? Or will we sit on it all ( like the japanese did) for ten years or more.? Now that might be a good thing. Negative interest rates, negative growth, and more usefully-annual deflation.prices of food and essential commodities actually falling from year to year.! People hoarding their savings, and the economy continuing to implode. “Look at that screen! ISEQ down 10pc…BOI and AIB down 20pc and Anglo down 35!

Here comes the tsunami folks…”

Yeah, and “King (Canute) Lenehan” has held back the waves -for now.!
Meanwhile anybody who bought Anglo Irish Bank (the speculators bank) yesterday is up 67% today!!
There’s a lot of money to be made out there boys .
Atypical recession stock market gyration.
So when will the irish banks be grateful for their rescue and force the sale of empty housing estates and overpriced apartments all around the country at real prices-and thereby begin the real healing process – facing up to reality?
Or will we sit on it all ( like the japanese did) for ten years or more.?
Now that might be a good thing. Negative interest rates, negative growth, and more usefully-annual deflation.prices of food and essential commodities actually falling from year to year.! People hoarding their savings, and the economy continuing to implode.

]]> By: Brendan W. http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42177 Brendan W. Mon, 29 Sep 2008 21:15:42 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42177 @ Shane , I agree with your views too, I never suggested riots , peaceful demonstration certainly and of course a protest vote when the local elections come around. Yet as we both know like so many others who visit Davids page here the problem is far more complicated as we have neither an opposition in place to lead the economy forward nor have we the strength in our social make up to stand up for change . It is a quagmire for sure .... @ Shane , I agree with your views too, I never suggested riots , peaceful demonstration certainly and of course a protest vote when the local elections come around. Yet as we both know like so many others who visit Davids page here the problem is far more complicated as we have neither an opposition in place to lead the economy forward nor have we the strength in our social make up to stand up for change . It is a quagmire for sure ….

]]> By: Nick http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42159 Nick Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:27:46 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42159 Look at that screen! ISEQ down 10pc...BOI and AIB down 20pc and Anglo down 35! Here comes the tsunami folks... Look at that screen! ISEQ down 10pc…BOI and AIB down 20pc and Anglo down 35!

Here comes the tsunami folks…

]]> By: Shane Dempsey http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42156 Shane Dempsey Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:31:29 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42156 One more point for? Is anyone in government actually consulting the the few economists (David, Morgan Kelly... ) here and abroad who called this recession correctly? Or will pride get in the way so they'll be dismissed as doom-mongers who "talked us all into a recession". One more point for? Is anyone in government actually consulting the the few economists (David, Morgan Kelly… ) here and abroad who called this recession correctly? Or will pride get in the way so they’ll be dismissed as doom-mongers who “talked us all into a recession”.

]]> By: Shane Dempsey http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42155 Shane Dempsey Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:28:43 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42155 Brendan, for "laughable" read "ridiculous and silly". As for calling my sense of humour sick, that's your opinion but generally dismissing the idea of rioting is considered a sensible approach. I agree with your grievances and your reason for being angry. I'm as hacked off as every other PAYE worked that we're potentially going to be landed with more taxation to bailout a government that has misled the Irish people. However,several economists suggested that we were being recklessly extravagant over the past few years and we simply wasted more money driving inflation higher. We're very keen to blame the banks for lending us the money and the government for dismissing economic concerns before the last election but nobody seems willing to accept that they spent and borrowed their own money poorly. However, we elected FF again despite warnings that a housing crisis could be around the corner. I think the great crime of the current government is that, at a certain stage, they started to believe they were responsible for the years of prosperity. This break with reality led to Bertie's imperial edict that the property market wouldn't crash. The citizens of Ireland exercised their democratic right to vote badly and in the face of conventional logic. Not for the first time. This is a country where people would rather believe in an endless boom with the occasional cushioned plateau as promoted by Bertie rather than consider a recession. Are riots a substitute for common sense when a 4 bed semi is bought for 9-10 times gross income? I don't think we need riots but orderly protests and exercising our democratic rights are fine. Local elections provide an opportunity to express frustration. Unfortunately, the groups most likely to protest are unions constituted mainly of state employees who want more pay without realistic performance reviews. Under Enda, the opposition hasn't been strong enough, effectively allowing the government to get away with economic murder. The Bertie tribunal sideshow also distracted from our economic situation. Increasing PAYE income tax will have little affect on the wealthiest including developers whose income largely comes from capital gains and various rental income with generous and cumulative tax reliefs. It really applies to the overburdened middle classes. Feel free to let your elected representatives aware of your frustration.http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=9608&CatID=138 Personally I'd prefer if Ireland's wealthiest people were engaged in activities more likely to create sustainable jobs than property speculation here and abroad. As our legislators, the state are the only people who can encourage this. Let them know! Brendan, for “laughable” read “ridiculous and silly”. As for calling my sense of humour sick, that’s your opinion but generally dismissing the idea of rioting is considered a sensible approach. I agree with your grievances and your reason for being angry.
I’m as hacked off as every other PAYE worked that we’re potentially going to be landed with more taxation to bailout a government that has misled the Irish people. However,several economists suggested that we were being recklessly extravagant over the past few years and we simply wasted more money driving inflation higher. We’re very keen to blame the banks for lending us the money and the government for dismissing economic concerns before the last election but nobody seems willing to accept that they spent and borrowed their own money poorly. However, we elected FF again despite warnings that a housing crisis could be around the corner. I think the great crime of the current government is that, at a certain stage, they started to believe they were responsible for the years of prosperity. This break with reality led to Bertie’s imperial edict that the property market wouldn’t crash. The citizens of Ireland exercised their democratic right to vote badly and in the face of conventional logic. Not for the first time.

This is a country where people would rather believe in an endless boom with the occasional cushioned plateau as promoted by Bertie rather than consider a recession. Are riots a substitute for common sense when a 4 bed semi is bought for 9-10 times gross income? I don’t think we need riots but orderly protests and exercising our democratic rights are fine. Local elections provide an opportunity to express frustration. Unfortunately, the groups most likely to protest are unions constituted mainly of state employees who want more pay without realistic performance reviews. Under Enda, the opposition hasn’t been strong enough, effectively allowing the government to get away with economic murder. The Bertie tribunal sideshow also distracted from our economic situation.

Increasing PAYE income tax will have little affect on the wealthiest including developers whose income largely comes from capital gains and various rental income with generous and cumulative tax reliefs. It really applies to the overburdened middle classes. Feel free to let your elected representatives aware of your frustration.http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=9608&CatID=138
Personally I’d prefer if Ireland’s wealthiest people were engaged in activities more likely to create sustainable jobs than property speculation here and abroad. As our legislators, the state are the only people who can encourage this. Let them know!

]]> By: Ire_in_Exile http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42144 Ire_in_Exile Mon, 29 Sep 2008 09:11:23 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42144 Here Here! Brendan W!!! Spot on. Here Here! Brendan W!!!
Spot on.

]]> By: Brendan W. http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42117 Brendan W. Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:57:57 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42117 @ Shane Dempesy , it is far from laughable that we should now be protesting on the streets, we have had fifteen years of a Government laughing at us , from European infrastructural funding been wasted on consultancy fees and engineers reports with a transport system still not modernized , a health system that lags in the bottom of the European system a education system where we still have our youth going into pre fab buildings, foreign oil companies been sold Irish rights and state protection from genuine locals who obect, tribunals still running when we all ready know the answers. Almost one thousand government agencies, a leader with 217 direct departmental employees. Drug dealers in every city, town and village in the country, Hosing estates half built and below European standards. Semi State companies paying Managers some of the highest salaries in Europe a civil services that doesn't work. And a cartel of Bankers, developers and State media that have been spinning lies to the population for over a decade . If you think this is laughable ,..you have a sick sense of humor @ Shane Dempesy , it is far from laughable that we should now be protesting on the streets, we have had fifteen years of a Government laughing at us , from European infrastructural funding been wasted on consultancy fees and engineers reports with a transport system still not modernized , a health system that lags in the bottom of the European system a education system where we still have our youth going into pre fab buildings, foreign oil companies been sold Irish rights and state protection from genuine locals who obect, tribunals still running when we all ready know the answers. Almost one thousand government agencies, a leader with 217 direct departmental employees. Drug dealers in every city, town and village in the country, Hosing estates half built and below European standards. Semi State companies paying Managers some of the highest salaries in Europe a civil services that doesn’t work. And a cartel of Bankers, developers and State media that have been spinning lies to the population for over a decade .
If you think this is laughable ,..you have a sick sense of humor

]]> By: Bertie Ahern http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2008/09/24/what-we-must-do-to-get-the-monkey-off-our-backs/comment-page-2#comment-42074 Bertie Ahern Sun, 28 Sep 2008 02:27:15 +0000 http://111862679#comment-42074 good luck lads! good luck lads!

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