Young men from GAA clubs all around the country are moving to clubs in London and New York.
One of the most fascinating barometers of the Irish economy is published not by the ESRI, the Central Bank or any of the many stockbrokers paid to monitor the state of things. If you want to understand what is happening on the ground, go to www.gaa.ie.
As well as fixtures, news, updates and analysis, the GAA’s website is a mine of sociological information. One monthly little gem tells us who is transferring from which club and where they are going.
For the last few years the club transfer list was pretty standard, reflecting young players moving around the country to where they are working or studying.
So lads would transfer from clubs in Dublin to Cork or Waterford, depending on jobs. Obviously, much of the movement was to Dublin clubs as the capital sucked in resources to fuel the boom.
This month’s figures, however, reveal something startling. We are seeing a huge increase in young men moving from Irish clubs all around the country to clubs in London and New York.
This barometer — let’s call it the GAA Club Transfer Index or GCTI for short — doesn’t lie. More significantly, the huge surge in emigration it reflects will not be picked up by official statistics for months, if not years.
According to the GCTI, emigration is on the increase from all over Ireland and it is recurring in precisely the age group that we need most — our young, fit people. What makes the change in the index all the more startling, is the dramatic turnaround in fortunes between the beginning of the year and now. In January, not one club player transferred to a club outside Ireland. This month, over one third of all transfers involved lads leaving the country and signing up for clubs in New York and London.
So Paddy is moving again. Historically, it has always been so. When things are going well here, we come home and when things turn down, we go. Such migration patterns are not normal.
For example, in the 1980s Ireland and Spain suffered from the same levels of unemployment — 19pc in both countries. This lack of opportunity prompted 400,000 young Irish people to leave the country. By contrast, the Spaniards hardly budged. The GCTI is telling us that this is happening again.
Over the years, the GAA has been a brilliant indicator of economic and demographic trends. For example, in the 1980s, emigration in rural Ireland was so severe that many villages couldn’t find 15 young men to field a team on a regular basis.
Equally, the boom years were a bonanza for the GAA. New clubs opened to cater for the huge outward move to the new suburbs of Meath, Kildare and the peripheries of all our main towns.
Wherever a series of new estates were built, GAA clubs followed. GAA clubs, outside decking, Woodies DIY and Dominos Pizza went together. Much to the chagrin of many commentators, these new suburbs in “Deckland” thrived. Communities formed quickly and, at the centre of these new neighbourhoods, was the ever present GAA club.
In older suburbs where the GAA had not been traditionally strong, the boom led to a rekindling of interest in Gaelic Games. It also spawned a new subspecies — the GAA Mum. The GAA Mum emerged ferrying children around like a demented taxi-driver every Saturday morning. My own neck of the woods, Dun Laoghaire (never a GAA stronghold), has become flooded with these new hyper-educated, assertive, clever, ambitious and aspirational “GAA mums”. Interestingly, the GAA won the battle for the hearts and minds of the new middle class in suburban Ireland.
Mothers who never had any dealings with the GAA, either as children or young women, are signing up their kids and getting involved in the GAA over and above other sports. Today’s GAA mums are a very different breed to those who made the sandwiches years ago.
They are part of the resurgence in a well-managed, well-marketed sporting institution which runs itself professionally and towers over other sporting organisations. Because it is ubiquitous, across all classes and regions, the GAA is a fantastic leading indicator of social change.
Unfortunately, the social change it is capturing now is emigration. The return of emigration has profound ramifications for all of us. If Irish young men are going now, when both the US and the UK are close to recession, they must feel that their chances there are better than they are here. This is damning.
The implications for tax revenue, the budget deficit and house prices are straightforward. The less young people you have, the less tax revenue you have and the more expensive public projects become. As for house prices, if the GCTI is accurate, the implication for house prices is simple — they will fall further. This is bad news for not only the housing market but for the banking sector too because without a vibrant, young population, much of the dynamic of an expanding economy disappears.
In addition, most studies reveal that the most able people emigrate while the not so talented or ambitious might be more likely to stay at home and be on the dole. Emigration is self-selecting and it reinforces a downturn, not just in terms of the quantity of people in the country, but the quality too.
The political implications of a return of Irish emigration, coupled with net immigration into the country are again straightforward. People will get angry if “our own” are forced to live in Queens or Camden while the country plays host to all sorts of foreigners. This is not a racist comment; it’s a political reality.
The GAA Club Transfer Index is pointing to massive social change and a return of emigration but don’t expect to hear about this from our authorities. If you want to see why there will be tearful reunions at Dublin airport for the first time in decades this Christmas, don’t wait till the experts report back; head down to your local GAA club and see what’s happening to the teamsheets.
I think we are a small open economy thats exposed to too many shitheads.
The ports are in the control of a small cadre who DO NOT WANT FURTHER BUSINESS. The various port authorities are more interested in having a property portfolio rather than a functioning port. Witness the fight for Irish Ferries. Do you think that the people involved want to play Popeye the sailor man? No way. They want to develop the ports and build sea view apartments in prime locations.
Also the HSE is in the pockets of “consultants” of all hues medical and otherwise in whose interest reform of the service is against. The Department of Health needs to be called the Department of Euthanasia or the Department of Really Stupid decisions.
O’Dea is challenged by getting dressed in the morning. These revolutionaries are living off the reputations of their grandparents and as is the norm revolutionaries have no idea how to conduct day to day business without resorting to babble about how they are saving us from the Englishman.
Spending money on a problem is like trying to extinguish a fire with petrol. That’s all these lunatics seem to be able to do. No thought required. As Ronnie Reagan said the scariest words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help”.
Epic fail on the economy. Fail on health and fail on idea generation. We should have been preparing for a downturn DURING the boom not now. Now is 8-10 years too late.
Our problems is that we have a right wing wannabe fascist government who want us to be as dumb as possible and make every decision for us. It worked in the 50′s but they took their eyes so far off the ball this time I dunno if they can salvage any credibliity.
Unfortunately I think they will be re-elected yet again. And again. And again because we the electorate keep believing them and the rest keep away from the ballot box.
As for Joyce. I was forced to study his muck for the leaving and have no intention of ever revisiting it.
Does anyone else find the latest spin by the banks and builiding lobby gaulling? To spout the ballderdash that government intervention in the housing crises be exercised in order to get the crucial first time buyer back into the market is only laughable. And only so because they say it is all to ‘protect’ the poor little fledglings from the big bad world (unscrupulous bankers and developers in my opinion). Sure wont they naturally come back in themselves when the price is right.i.e when the average house starts selling for around 3 times the average industrial €120,000..Is this formula that stood us in such good stead for so long really defunct? Economics 101 must surely apply here. The housing market is in disequilibrium at the moment for all the reasons discussed on this blog and many like it. The quest that is the painful downward readjustment to find a more sustainable state of economic order must be allowed to happen organically and without obstacle or vested interest interference. Other wise the current trend of trickling emmigration will resemble the scenes in Carlow last week as more and more average industrial types head outa this over inflated banana republic. My two cents.
Rob in Swords
Hi Fergal,
No you mis-interpreted. I’m not in Dublin City. I’m in Galway. My sincere apologies if I was mis-leading. The reason I “had” to purchase is a long story but genuine. However, I fully agree with you in your response. The country was being strangled with the need for massive salaries as the prices of houses soared creating a false and uncompetitive economy. With house prices dropping / stagnating, the pressure on employers, one would hope, will not be as much – although we seem to far from a deflationary situation with energy and oil prices soaring.
The problem with people who are close to negative equity selling now is that, if they are close to negative equity, chances are they bought in the last few years meaning that if they were to sell they’d be screwed and would end up in a loss situation considering the market has completed shut down.
On a separate note, a friend of mine lives in Waterford. He attempted to purchase a dwelling in Dunmore East (he’s from there). However, the cost of purchasing was exorbitant. The average cost of a Bungalow was roughly €500K. To give you an example of how this related to the average salary of the region, he is a mechanical engineer earning €45K per annum. Safe to say he was smart enough not to be totally shafted. However, this situation is mirrored all over the country (mainly in Dublin) and it’s a national embarrassment at this stage that the youth has been completely screwed over by those in power. This has been well highlighted above and in previous blogs on other articles, however, we seem to have become too complacent with this new found wealth. We have stopped questioning the powers that be and started accepting their course of action (unfortunately that course seems to be similar to a ship at sea in the fog with no GPS or sat nav). Perhaps we were the lemmings that followed our leaders off the cliff…..although I’m sure there are enough parachutes to go around.
To Rob in swords , Welcome to Ireland’s spin machine you won’t find funnier stuff on utube if you searched even under comedy for it . You see as a few here have said already it is ‘who is running us’ a group of chancers who saved us from those awful English and sure aren’t those nice bankers only doing their best so you and young Mary don’t have to wait till your parents are asleep up stairs to get down to a bit of snogging ? And with regard to Dunmore East (nice spot) it’s location location location where the sun is always shining sure some folk would pay even more for a cottage like they do in Dalkey . We have (well some ) just been rode here.
But as one free speaker here said we should make appointments to see our politicians and tell them we are not happy any more !… . and sure then Bertie will come back and dig us out of this mess .
So I’ll tell you a quick one on how clever our politicians are at local level regarding flooding , down in New Ross in Wexford the councilors voted in a new drainage scheme considering all these new lego houses that they had let go up before hand along with the new drains they were going to build a wall along the river front to stop the flooding from the same river barrow as Carlow has. Only now one of their fellow councilors has coped that the whole town is built on hills , so what happens when it rains where does the water go when it hits this new wall ?. So our talented F.F boys , now want their fellow brain dead colleagues to ‘work with them over this issue’ after they had given out the contract and the wall has been started. It just shows you these elected officials can’t read any plans.This is why they spend €11,000 on curtains and hire in so many advisor’s , their collectively as thick as planks but clever enough as we are letting them in time after time again.
I keep saying it. Don’t vote for them. If you do you are as guilty as they are for the mess.
“in Dunmore East …. The average cost of a Bungalow was roughly €500K”
This is a very nice part of the world but demonstrates a huge problem. This house would cost over €25k in interest alone to finance. Any owner of a ‘holiday’ home in this area would provide a ‘hotel service’ for €500 per week for a full year, so why should there be any demand at these prices ?
There is a ‘believe’ in political commentary that we should just ‘hold on’ as the ESRI produced a report a while back saying we will return to high growth in a couple of years. Has anyone explained how ?
Johnny Dunne
In terms of the general psychology, there’s a general pattern in market crashes: Denial, reality/hope, capitulation.
The first phase is characterised by the general feeling that nothing’s wrong, or it’s just ‘slowing down’, it’s only a ‘blip’, it’s only localised, it might fall 10%, or 20%.
In the second, people accept there’s a problem, and start to talk about the market bottom, about how much some are looking forward to picking up some real bargains.
The third, and final, stage is when no one in their right mind would go near the asset class in question, it’s completely hopeless, the general feeling being that you’ll never make money out of it, however cheap.
Downswings are punctuated by short upswings, when a small amount of buying momentum builds, people get optimistic, only to be wiped out by another, generally rather vicious, slump.
In terms of people and money, you can describe it in the following way: First, the stupid people lose their money; Second, the clever people lose their money; and finally, the very clever people lose their money.
In terms of a fiscal description, there’s simply too much damn cash around, and the ‘system’ is getting rid of a huge chunk of it, through a mixture of deflation of the asset prices, and inflation of the price of everything else.
The reason that a lot of very experienced analysts take these sorts of semi-anthropomorphic descriptions seriously (the ‘system is doing something’), is that economies are really very complex indeed, with a myriad of feedback loops and a big dollop of consumer psychology, and that the published statistics are generally patchy and misleading. It is simply too difficult to predict accurately, in an arithmetic, or even a statistical, way.
The general view seems to be that residential property operates in a roughly 18 year cycle, and that prices fall about 70% from peak to trough.. That being so, the US & UK markets will bottom in 2-3 years time, which seems about right, as they’re both at the beginning of phase 2 (US is probably about 6-12 months ahead). By that time, of course, no one will believe a word of it for several years, seeing any rise as just a temporary blip, and the property market as a sure fire way to lose money. The denial/reality/capitulation model sort of works backwards too.
Civil Servants are just people as well, and people with political masters, so any report needs to be looked at very carefully, and in context.
The fundamental, and rather depressing, point is that the vast majority MUST suffer before the system has righted itself, simply by definition. The goal, for the individual, is wealth maintenance, and is, for the group, impossible.
I agree with Nasim Nicholas Taleb of Black Swan fame what we should do now is go out buy a nice suit and be well presented for our execution. The Western economy is coming apart at the seams.
The untold story is that nobody really knows what is going on and the scariest ones are the ones who say they do because they don’t.
Bottom line. Don’t believe anyone in a tie.
b.
Well, let’s not get too carried away, it’s only a market crash, and they are pretty regular: At the national level, there’s no need to worry because the sun’s going down, it’ll be up again in a few years.
The argument for the 18 year period is interesting. It seems to come down to staff turnover in financial services & relevant parts of the state sector (finance, regulation, etc). After a nasty crash, all the staff who have any idea of the mechanics that were involved in during the previous cycle, will pretty much ensure that it won’t happen again; they’ll make sure that it’s only 3 times salary, with a 20% deposit. It’s only until those staff have gone, and the new staff are in control, with only the haziest oral legends of the bad times, will it start to happen again.
The Young Turks, in their nice new ties, with their over-sized qualifications, brimming with the need to prove themselves and get rich, look back at the old ways, and say “Those old coots were so dumb! So cautious! They were so stupid – not surprising they lost so much money! Ha!”. Others say “It’s all a plot by the to keep the wealth/kapital in the their hands”. Still others – and this is the sign to pack your bags and leave them waiting in the hall – will say, with a completely straight face, “This time it’s different”.
b.
Well, let’s not get too carried away, it’s only a market crash, and they are pretty regular: At the national level, there’s no need to worry because the sun’s going down, it’ll be up again in a few years.
The argument for the 18 year period is interesting. It seems to come down to staff turnover in financial services & relevant parts of the state sector (finance, regulation, etc). After a nasty crash, all the staff who have any idea of the mechanics that were involved in during the previous cycle, will pretty much ensure that it won’t happen again; they’ll make sure that it’s only 3 times salary, with a 20% deposit. It’s only until those staff have gone, and the new staff are in control, with only the haziest oral legends of the bad times, will it start to happen again.
The Young Turks, in their nice new ties, with their over-sized qualifications, brimming with the need to prove themselves and get rich, look back at the old ways, and say “Those old coots were so dumb! So cautious! They were so stupid – not surprising they lost so much money! Ha ha!”. Others say “It’s all a plot by the (middle-class/white men/borgeoisie* delete as applicable) to keep the wealth/kapital in the their hands”. Still others – and this is the sign to pack your bags, and leave them waiting in the hall – will say, with a completely straight face, “This time it’s different”.
@Stephen Kenny. Where is the evidence of the upswing? What basis apart from hope do you base it on? Your response was superficial at best.
b.
Less than 2 years in to a downswing and you want evidence of an upswing? We are in a downswing, so the only current evidence is of the downswing we are in.
Superficial? These are general rules of thumb, not physical laws. Economics is not ‘the dismal science’ because it isn’t a science at all. IN my view, economists are little more than latter-day witch doctors (present company excepted). How can anyone measure the mood, and views, of investment directors? Will they build the new factory, or won’t they? And consumer sentiment? Why do you think Wall Street watches the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey figures so carefully?
As I said, witch-doctors. You’d probably be as accurate as the top Goldman Sachs
economist if you studied tea leaves, or watched frogs mating behaviour (I think that’s the weather, actually).
If you want to look out for the indications of an upswing, I would look at transport companies, commercial property companies, employment agencies. If you can find the figures, look at bank lending to companies. Look for the signs that companies have stopped contracting, and are starting to expand.
If you want to spot the bottom, my view is that it’s the time when the general mood is verging on the hopeless. All your friends, the newspapers, work colleagues, are all saying that employment prospects, house prices, and so on, will never improve. That’s the bottom. It’s the mood.
I never looked for evidence of an upswing. I just challenge the notion that there going to be one in any kind of predictable time frame. Being in the freight business we saw evidence that the property market was tanking when builders providers imports fell off a cliff around last Christmas.
It`s only the fools who will stay in Ireland. The country has let its people down, again. I will never return. I wouldn`t even want to be buried in Ireland, never mind live there.