Based on his performance as Minister for Justice, I expect Lenihan the Minister for Finance to tell us that the problem is not really as seriously as the statistics are indicating. I am even suspicious that some of the metrics might end up being amended because of the political need. I also suspect that there is a lot of bad news about the economy which is being purposely postponed until after the Lisboa Treaty vote. I know of villages in the Midlands where unemployment is rocketting. Yes, it is not just increasing. It is rocketting !!! I visited a shopping centre on the outskirts of Dublin today, and for the first time since it was built finding a space near the entrance was really easy. I know of people in high tech jobs who are cutting back on holidays, weekends, and other items. There are rumours going around that country people are starting to grow their own vegetables again, in increasing numbers to cut down on bills. There are also widespread rumours of Polish and Lithuanian building workers going home in August, when their contracts, work will be finished. This will empty housing estates and drop rents, which is paradoxically a good thing for the economy, because it enables graduates to get buy on reduced salaries in the all important competitve sector. (Many of these graduates will be from continental and Asian countries and would otherwise find Irish living expenses unbearable).

However none of this has shown up in government or ESRI statistics. I suppose this Lisboa thing has to be got through first with what ever is left of the feel good factor.

With a minister for Finance who knows nothing about Finance, and a deteriorating economic environment, we better all hunker down, give up the extravangant lifestyle and live within our means. The media is absolutely delighted that there is a ‘Dublin’ Minister for Finance. This is absolutely ridiculous. It proves that the media uses the ‘parish pump’ slur for politicians from the provinces, and endorses the ‘parish pump’ politician in the capital. This is very sectoral, and biased.

Comments were also made about the fact that the current minister has the Lenihan pedigree. Utter nonsense. And if we are to take this seriously look at the legacy that he is following, Mary O’Rourke was the worst Minister for Transport ever. That Luas project was over budget, under specified, and over time. People don’t use the Luas for rush hour, because it is not sufficient. This is a disaster, and suggests that people can be trivial when taking responsibility for national projects.

Brian Lenihan in charge of the state’s finances will be a complete circus !!!!

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The mindset in Ireland, perhaps one of frugality or moderation needs to take hold. If we are honest about it, we are an immature society, i.e. when money came our way we lost the run of ourselves completely. A more European/Scandanavian approach towards integrated public transport, adoption of greener policies, tackling Govt waste etc. needs to take hold.
In some ways if Ireland gets an economic shock, and perhaps this is already underway, we created the crisis ourselves. As someone said earlier when we had the resources we didn’t actually have the will to change. The best piece of public infrastructure during the Celtic Tiger was the re-opening of the Harcourt Street train line, closed 50 years earlier!

Bertie Ahern’s gifts were as a fixer and a deal-broker, perfect for solving the Northern situation but actually useless in setting forth a vision and making hard decisions along the way. The reason why he fell out with no-one is that he hardly took a decision and when somebody stood up to complain to him in the Dáil, he agreed with them! Bertie’s vision got as far as everyone getting wealthy on the property ladder. This is fundamentally nonsense as is now appearing. Does anybody who supports Fianna Fáil now not realise that the cosying up to developers in the Fianna Fáil tent in Ballybrit has resulted in millions being made for a few developers while thousand of young couples have ended up in overpriced shacks, miles from anywhere with no decent infrastructure/facilities. This is not freedom nor is it ‘republican’ it is slavery dressed up in the fom of a big loan. It really is wake-up time for muintir na tíre seo.

Brian Lenihan was not a great barrister – sometimes hopelessly off course, and a bit of a blusterer. Bit like McDowell, but without the arrogance. Watch out for gale force winds blowing from his mouth, or more southerly parts of the anatomy.

Seriously, why should someone like that be appointed minister for finance? His only qualification is that he has a solid constituency gifted to him by a political dynasty.

Ireland needs a Vince Cable to call out the bullshit of the financial establishment.

For example, MK’s point about getting feedback from the Department of Enterprise that the EU won’t let the ‘state’ fund small businesses by giving ‘free’ or subidied office space is the way it is as EU members state aid is focused on R&D not operations or sales/marketing.

Bottom line, already Ireland is not ‘allowed’ have a competitive advantage over other EU members on how it supports industry ! Our political leaders need to be shown the ‘truth’ and then have the belief to ‘push’ changes so Ireland is the best place to do business. If not, we will be good citizens of Europe, a ‘nice’ place to visit with no control on the economic levers to promote viable industries….

I agree with you. The property incentives should have been removed as the property bubble expanded ie: on the way up. They can be added back in during weaker economic times to spur growth ie: on the way down. In this way, a ‘soft landing’ could be assisted through Government action and selected incentives. Instead, the government added their air to the bubble by keeping the incentives. Incentives in this case include mortgage interest tax relief, which the OECD recently commented on (I think).

> The state, as it does in many other countries, could also reduce start-up costs by subsidising office space for incubation centres.

I wrote to the Minister of Industry (Mary Harney at the time) and got a wishy-washy response back saying that it was against EU rules, etc, etc. Clearly, they are not even trying as there are ways to do this. The current situation is that the government is spending millions on building so-called incubation centres (located at Uni’s and IT’s) which are then available to rent but only at market rates. ie: no real benefit to the start-up at all, and the intangible benefits (co-location to other start-ups) are minor if measurable at all. I know as I have been in several!

Yes, the SFI ‘investment’ is actually providing academic careers/postings mainly for foreigners who then mostly all leave Ireland. The research produces little commercial spin-offs. It is a crazy waste. However, the academics know this already, as do the business people in Ireland. No-one believes the soundbites that emanate from the politicians. ‘Marrying’ the business/commercial world to the academic parallel universe is difficult, but not impossible. This country the linkage is pathetic.

As has been pointed out, dont expect the polticians or the new ‘bench’ to make much of a difference. I do believe that every team though deserves a chance, but its not as if this team is brand new as many already were just in different positions on the ‘table’. Moving the deck-chairs on the titanic comes to mind (feel free to use that the next time you are on Q&A). Ireland will have to wait for a real new government if it wants to see a step-change in policy and a tangible effect.

MK

You may be right, and of course I hope you are!

I think I would say that ALL European countries, except possibly Switzerland, had it very hard for much of the 20th century – it wasn’t limited to the central European area – so I’m not sure I’d go aklong with that reasonsing. And the reasoning matters, as it may be a guide for how to, or not to, plan the right path. We can look at the post war centrally planned economies, the liberal economies, the flirtation with a highly socialised economies in the 70s, and so on.

The difficulty with change is that it generally takes a situation where either everyone realises the benefits of working towards and ‘common good’ – a sort of social ‘tough love’ (after a war, for example. In fact, it’s probably the only example), or they have nothing, or little, to lose, and almost anything is better than the situation they are in.

Perhaps I’m too pessamistic, but my reading of history is: When there are the time and resouces to plot a new course, there is not the will; When there is the will, there are neither the time nor the resouces (with the exception, possibly, of a post war period, or something similar).

In saying that, we’ve had a lot of change in the past 25 years, so perhaps change driven by a popular model IS possible. Just think of the women’s movement, for example. Can we imagine a popular movement to change economic direction, with all the social, economic, and status, changes that go with it?

Let’s put the question this way…can Ireland get to the the level of what is considered a good operational economy which does a decent servicing of the country’s needs with as little social harm as possible. My belief is that it is possible and I think the mindset is right and is also about ot be tested.

Let’s be careful about doing ourselves down too much. We are a nation going thro’ a growing up phase. If this was about the UK, you could say that modern manufacturing methods never took off as quickly as other parts of the world becasue it was mired in a traditional Victorian mindset – even though the inventors of the new techniques were from the UK. Whinge whinge etc. You should listen to a German complaining about the cockups in their country…the lack of flexibility, opportunity and poor mobility between jobs which traps people in specialists traps and starves industry of resources -this is a real problem there.

I agree totally with David in this article – but for one thing – lets be careful how we do it. If we are too quick, the instability may not be worth it and when we do get there eventually, a well run operation is always competitive. There will be cockups if we move too fast. Let’s hope the politicians remain steady.