on January 22nd, 2008 at 5:17 pm

“shtove, the social effects are definitely what interests me. I dont give a toss whether we get deflation or inflation….. whats important is what is the effect on me, my family and the rest of us ….”

Well, deflation/inflation is THE serious one for everybody to ponder.

Government will muck about and pretend to do things, but their efforts will be quite futile – in fact, they are certain to make things worse. Look how they let the bankers run away with the credit system during the “good times”! Those bonuses! O the humanity.

Meanwhile, you and your family are set to take the brunt. If you think it’s deflation coming, then get out of debt. If it’s inflation, then you may be OK on your mortgage – so long as it’s WAGE inflation.

Sorry about the cringe comment. I think I was in a bad mood when I wrote that. Maybe I’m cringeing at the thought of these ‘robopaddies’, ‘botox betties’, ‘breakfast roll men’ etc. I mean, is that what we’ve become? Ugh!

I reallly need to get off this island for an extended period! Seriously……

the comments already made on the celtic tiger are spot on… great stuff! maybe that nightclub closed down when there was better opportunities for young women other than bagging some rich oul fella. Maybe it’ll reopen again this year?, we could call it Greenspans

just look at the War on Terror… some social effects…. 1) the public have become much more tolerant of information gathering, you never hear from the civil liberties crowd these days… people put stuff up on facebook that their parents would have went on protests about… 2) Even movies that were made just a few years ago could never be funded now… Michael Collins, even Independence Day… car bombs going off or rebels taking on empires is just a little too close to the bone for Hollywood.

Given the fed has cut rates by .75% today whats going to happen. Will the US get Britain and the EU on board a “Coalition Of The Borrowers” in their new “War on Financial Probity”? Either way, its going to affect us

Nostromartus, you could be right, and those young girls will take them to the cleaners!

I think what we’re seeing in Ireland pretty much mirrors what’s been happening in parts of the US since 2005. A period of house price stagnation, accompanied by “it’s just a healthy pause” advice from vested interests, followed by declines in prices and increasing foreclosures and repossessions, increasing defaults on other types of debt, government advocating fiscal stimulus, central banks doing what they do to no effect – and, eventually, the whole mess spilling over in to the real economy with severe job losses.

David’s point about cross-market contagion is sound. But an even more important point is that this incredible bubble in house prices internationally was inflated through lunatic lending. As the lunatic lending is taken off the table – again, keep an eye on the US – the bubble will be deflated internationally. So, anyone pointing to the UK and saying “but it’s different!” will be correct, but only insofar as the UK market crashes at a different pace.

To my mind, this is all inevitable. The debate should now shift to the issue of whether we get sustained inflation or sustained deflation. Yields on US government treasuries in the long term are creeping down inexorably, suggesting deflation over the next ten years. Gold and other commodities have marched higher, and may go even higher, suggesting inflation for the next few years.

I expect deflation. If you have cash and no debt, you’ll ride it out. If you have debt and no cash, you’re fewked.

But still there was always something distasteful seeing these guys (and girls) on their house shopping ‘holidays’ pricing people out of their own country. And whats worse, often behaving like complete c****s in the process.

There is a huge story quietly unfolding in places like bulgaria where paddy last will end up with an apartment worth f*** all, but with an extra 100k on his irish mortgage, just to remind them ….

Maybe the locals weren’t so stupid after all :)