Comments on: The Dundrum Paradox – Don’t be Paddy Last! http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-dundrum-paradox%25e2%2580%2593dont-be-paddy-last The website of economist, author and broadcaster, David McWilliams Thu, 09 Feb 2012 02:30:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: jimmy bond http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-33375 jimmy bond Wed, 03 Oct 2007 14:25:49 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-33375 he certainly called it right on budapest , you cannot give aways residential property right now in budapest , like a fool i bought an appartment in 2005 and done it up , its worth less now than what i paid for it the slowdown in the irish property market will only add to this as the hungarian property boom if there ever really was one was built on the back of the irish and to a lesser extent brittish property boom regular irish people here took out loans to purchase appartments in budapest safe in the knowledge that there own house back home would continue to appreciate , well property back home has ceased to appreciate and so will end the possitive effect irish property had on hungarian property , theres one thing sure , there was nothing in hungary itself to suggest property there should rise he certainly called it right on budapest , you cannot give aways residential property right now in budapest , like a fool i bought an appartment in 2005 and done it up , its worth less now than what i paid for it
the slowdown in the irish property market will only add to this as the hungarian property boom if there ever really was one was built on the back of the irish and to a lesser extent brittish property boom
regular irish people here took out loans to purchase appartments in budapest safe in the knowledge that there own house back home would continue to appreciate , well property back home has ceased to appreciate and so will end the possitive effect irish property had on hungarian property , theres one thing sure , there was nothing in hungary itself to suggest property there should rise

]]> By: john http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-33294 john Thu, 27 Sep 2007 20:46:46 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-33294 I'm not sure if David has been to Hungary for more than a few days in the past five years. The 'facts' given here are simply not true. From living in the country and being in daily contact with local economists, the difference between informed local opinion and articles such as this is bizarre. Devaluation of the HUF is extremely unlikely in the near future and it only referred to in international accounts of the Hungarian economy, which seem to know little about what is really going on here. I’m not sure if David has been to Hungary for more than a few days in the past five years. The ‘facts’ given here are simply not true. From living in the country and being in daily contact with local economists, the difference between informed local opinion and articles such as this is bizarre. Devaluation of the HUF is extremely unlikely in the near future and it only referred to in international accounts of the Hungarian economy, which seem to know little about what is really going on here.

]]> By: AltaGid http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-32856 AltaGid Wed, 08 Aug 2007 01:32:16 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-32856 Hello! Help solve the problem. Very often try to enter the forum, but says that the password is not correct. Regrettably use of remembering. Give like to be? Thank you! Hello! Help solve the problem.
Very often try to enter the forum, but says that the password is not correct.
Regrettably use of remembering. Give like to be?
Thank you!

]]> By: An Important Announcement - Free Consulting for ALL IBA Nominees | Search Engine Optimisation & Online Marketing Ireland .:. Red Cardinal http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-30585 An Important Announcement - Free Consulting for ALL IBA Nominees | Search Engine Optimisation & Online Marketing Ireland .:. Red Cardinal Sun, 17 Jun 2007 09:51:04 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-30585 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: John http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-29420 John Wed, 23 May 2007 12:52:38 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-29420 A crash in near future maybe or maybe not the fact is only couple of non - irish people really know. -I believe that property prices are being fuelled to the most part by foriegn investment in our economy which is the byproduct of our situation in Europe and low tax rate. The fact is US and many other foriegn companies choose to locate here because of the low corporate tax rates; access to well educated english speaking staff and a goverment that when asked to jump says "how high?". We are effectly the Cayman Island(s) of Europe. I believe property will level off once we have finished building the infastructure to support these companies. However if this 'Cayman' situation were change we would find ourselves in a very different situation in essence we really have no control over the economy here in Ireland. We have little or no real industry here in Ireland the fate of the house prices lies in decisions taken in a number of big corporate boardrooms in the US and other countries. What is in these guys heads I have no idea - as they are looking at picture of the global economy which not many of us will ever see and are asking themselves "how best can I progress the operations of this corporation in order to raise the share price hence my year end bonus. I believe Paddy is doing exactly the right thing buying foreign property - make hay while sunshines - maybe we should all bail over to China and India buy up all the green fields around the undeveloped major cities around the world. However I believe if you are heavily leveraged with your home in Dundrum I think you probably ok for the moment however you should probably keep your ear to the ground for the murmurings of the global strategic plans of our big corporate cash cows here in Ireland. For example if you own a house in Lexslip listen to what Intel are doing. A crash in near future maybe or maybe not the fact is only couple of non – irish people really know. -I believe that property prices are being fuelled to the most part by foriegn investment in our economy which is the byproduct of our situation in Europe and low tax rate. The fact is US and many other foriegn companies choose to locate here because of the low corporate tax rates; access to well educated english speaking staff and a goverment that when asked to jump says “how high?”. We are effectly the Cayman Island(s) of Europe. I believe property will level off once we have finished building the infastructure to support these companies. However if this ‘Cayman’ situation were change we would find ourselves in a very different situation in essence we really have no control over the economy here in Ireland. We have little or no real industry here in Ireland the fate of the house prices lies in decisions taken in a number of big corporate boardrooms in the US and other countries. What is in these guys heads I have no idea – as they are looking at picture of the global economy which not many of us will ever see and are asking themselves “how best can I progress the operations of this corporation in order to raise the share price hence my year end bonus. I believe Paddy is doing exactly the right thing buying foreign property – make hay while sunshines – maybe we should all bail over to China and India buy up all the green fields around the undeveloped major cities around the world. However I believe if you are heavily leveraged with your home in Dundrum I think you probably ok for the moment however you should probably keep your ear to the ground for the murmurings of the global strategic plans of our big corporate cash cows here in Ireland. For example if you own a house in Lexslip listen to what Intel are doing.

]]> By: laura farrell http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-26882 laura farrell Mon, 19 Feb 2007 18:39:32 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-26882 The real problem as I see it is not so much even the implications of the end the property boom (or beginning of a property implosion), but the fact that so many pundits and industry analysts are desperately trying to talk Ireland out of the imminent meltdown. For example: today I heard on the news that 350 jobs were to be lost in a factory - yet almost immediately there was the "annoucements" of another "800 jobs." No mention (there never is) of the fact that as many of 50% of these proposed "jobs" never actually materialise. No mention of the fact that in a significant number of cases the jobs that do materialise are dependent on industry factors, and many vanish within a couple of years. No mention of the fact that a rapidly increasing proportion of new jobs are paying lower and lower wages, demand a level of "flexibility" from the workforce hithero unknown and are often isolated break-outs with few if any, long term career prospects. (Oh I've worked for several of these!) About 80% of Ireland inc. is living a delusion, much of it fuelled by SSIAs, massive property paper values and an appetite for the obscene propoganda machine of the current government. The big problem is the total lack of joined-up thinking - somethng which is typified by the way in which more and more traffic is simply dumped onto already heavily congested roads. The scariest thing about all this is the blindness evident in the majority of the population and its willingness to vote straight back in the undertakers who bled dry Ireland Inc's coffers when the going was good. The real problem as I see it is not so much even the implications of the end the property boom (or beginning of a property implosion), but the fact that so many pundits and industry analysts are desperately trying to talk Ireland out of the imminent meltdown. For example: today I heard on the news that 350 jobs were to be lost in a factory – yet almost immediately there was the “annoucements” of another “800 jobs.” No mention (there never is) of the fact that as many of 50% of these proposed “jobs” never actually materialise. No mention of the fact that in a significant number of cases the jobs that do materialise are dependent on industry factors, and many vanish within a couple of years. No mention of the fact that a rapidly increasing proportion of new jobs are paying lower and lower wages, demand a level of “flexibility” from the workforce hithero unknown and are often isolated break-outs with few if any, long term career prospects. (Oh I’ve worked for several of these!) About 80% of Ireland inc. is living a delusion, much of it fuelled by SSIAs, massive property paper values and an appetite for the obscene propoganda machine of the current government.

The big problem is the total lack of joined-up thinking – somethng which is typified by the way in which more and more traffic is simply dumped onto already heavily congested roads. The scariest thing about all this is the blindness evident in the majority of the population and its willingness to vote straight back in the undertakers who bled dry Ireland Inc’s coffers when the going was good.

]]> By: Garry http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-26274 Garry Thu, 25 Jan 2007 16:32:42 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-26274 Fair play, great article... Looks like you called hungary right back in 2004.... Fair play, great article…

Looks like you called hungary right back in 2004….

]]> By: Jack Neary http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-26235 Jack Neary Mon, 22 Jan 2007 22:54:10 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-26235 If you (McWilliams) have been predicting a fall in house prices since 1997 you are either very stubborn or making a long wait in order to be right. Since you believe so much in economics and ask everyone such details don't remain so secretive about your own situation. Is it true the rumour that you yourself are still renting and hope prices will go down soon so you can buy one? If you (McWilliams) have been predicting a fall in house prices since 1997 you are either very stubborn or making a long wait in order to be right.

Since you believe so much in economics and ask everyone such details don’t remain so secretive about your own situation. Is it true the rumour that you yourself are still renting and hope prices will go down soon so you can buy one?

]]> By: Alternative nominations - 2007 Irish Blog Awards - Technology in plain English - Dublin Ireland http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-26137 Alternative nominations - 2007 Irish Blog Awards - Technology in plain English - Dublin Ireland Tue, 16 Jan 2007 13:51:01 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-26137 [...] Best Blog Post -  David McWilliams on something even more important than blogging (!) the impending property market crash. [...] [...] Best Blog Post -  David McWilliams on something even more important than blogging (!) the impending property market crash. [...]

]]> By: Dan Hayes http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last/comment-page-1#comment-26123 Dan Hayes Mon, 15 Jan 2007 20:36:39 +0000 http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2007/01/09/the-dundrum-paradox%e2%80%93dont-be-paddy-last#comment-26123 David & Co.: Just to add to your cautionary comments about South Africa. It wasn't too long ago that investors flocked into newly "liberated" Rhodesia (soon to become Zimbabwe). Let me remind your readers that in its first years of "liberation" Robert Mugawbe warned other African states "to keep your Whites." Well we all know, or should know, what happened there. That too will also happen in South Africa. For now, only the white South African farmers are being killed. That's for now. For now, the other whites are "only" being subjected to second-class citizenship (they do the work; while their incompetent kleptomaniacal bosses reap the credit and lucre). But liquidation time too will come for them! On a sadder note, I am sorry to learn that you will be going on sabbatical. Now how am I ever going to monitor the self-destruction of Ireland? David & Co.:

Just to add to your cautionary comments about South Africa. It wasn’t too long ago that investors flocked into newly “liberated” Rhodesia (soon to become Zimbabwe). Let me remind your readers that in its first years of “liberation” Robert Mugawbe warned other African states “to keep your Whites.” Well we all know, or should know, what happened there. That too will also happen in South Africa. For now, only the white South African farmers are being killed. That’s for now. For now, the other whites are “only” being subjected to second-class citizenship (they do the work; while their incompetent kleptomaniacal bosses reap the credit and lucre). But liquidation time too will come for them!

On a sadder note, I am sorry to learn that you will be going on sabbatical. Now how am I ever going to monitor the self-destruction of Ireland?

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