Comments on: Hot money is beginning to melt Iceland’s hardy economy http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy The website of economist, author and broadcaster, David McWilliams Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:42:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2 By: Ïîðíî http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-43399 Ïîðíî Fri, 24 Oct 2008 12:48:34 +0000 http://501442979#comment-43399 You site is good!!!

Show my links please.

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]]> By: David Mc Williams http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-964 David Mc Williams Sat, 04 Nov 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-964 Thanks everyone for all your comments. I am hosting a debate on the property market at Leviathan - a political caberet night I host every month. Next one on the first thursday in May. I would like to have some new voices speak on the boom and its effect on our society. Anyone fancy joining the debate. If so, email me to info@davidmcwilliams.ie. thanks D Thanks everyone for all your comments. I am hosting a
debate on the property market at Leviathan – a political
caberet night I host every month. Next one on the first
thursday in May. I would like to have some new voices
speak on the boom and its effect on our society. Anyone
fancy joining the debate. If so, email me to
info@davidmcwilliams.ie. thanks D

]]> By: copernicus http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-958 copernicus Wed, 04 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-958 I often wonder when this housing bubble is spoken about if the market in the country as a whole is being referred to or what. I think there are two markets myself, one inside the Pale and one beyond it and at an accelerating rate two economies developing, again inside and outside the Pale, one being more robust than the other and, therefore, one housing market being more robust than the other. Dublin is probably creating its own momentum at this stage and demographics might be more enlightening than the boom and bust cycle in terms of forward planning within the Pale. Outside, the reliance on large, globalised employers, diminishing rural sustainability (though this has the potential to change in the context of peak oil, food security and alternative energy production I think) and the failure to properly roll out road, social and broadband infrastructure all have the potential to cause massive upset in the event of a turn for the worse internationally. I often wonder when this housing bubble is spoken about if
the market in the country as a whole is being referred to or
what. I think there are two markets myself, one inside the
Pale and one beyond it and at an accelerating rate two
economies developing, again inside and outside the Pale, one
being more robust than the other and, therefore, one housing
market being more robust than the other.

Dublin is probably creating its own momentum at this stage
and demographics might be more enlightening than the boom
and bust cycle in terms of forward planning within the Pale.
Outside, the reliance on large, globalised employers,
diminishing rural sustainability (though this has the
potential to change in the context of peak oil, food
security and alternative energy production I think) and the
failure to properly roll out road, social and broadband
infrastructure all have the potential to cause massive upset
in the event of a turn for the worse internationally.

]]> By: copernicus http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-959 copernicus Wed, 04 Oct 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-959 I often wonder when this housing bubble is spoken about if the market in the country as a whole is being referred to or what. I think there are two markets myself, one inside the Pale and one beyond it and at an accelerating rate two economies developing, again inside and outside the Pale, one being more robust than the other and, therefore, one housing market being more robust than the other. Dublin is probably creating its own momentum at this stage and demographics might be more enlightening than the boom and bust cycle in terms of forward planning within the Pale. Outside, the reliance on large, globalised employers, diminishing rural sustainability (though this has the potential to change in the context of peak oil, food security and alternative energy production I think) and the failure to properly roll out road, social and broadband infrastructure all have the potential to cause massive upset in the event of a turn for the worse internationally. I often wonder when this housing bubble is spoken about if
the market in the country as a whole is being referred to or
what. I think there are two markets myself, one inside the
Pale and one beyond it and at an accelerating rate two
economies developing, again inside and outside the Pale, one
being more robust than the other and, therefore, one housing
market being more robust than the other.

Dublin is probably creating its own momentum at this stage
and demographics might be more enlightening than the boom
and bust cycle in terms of forward planning within the Pale.
Outside, the reliance on large, globalised employers,
diminishing rural sustainability (though this has the
potential to change in the context of peak oil, food
security and alternative energy production I think) and the
failure to properly roll out road, social and broadband
infrastructure all have the potential to cause massive upset
in the event of a turn for the worse internationally.

]]> By: Rob http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-926 Rob Sun, 04 Jun 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-926 JB, I have to say you sound like you are carrying a lot of anger around with you. Anything positive to say? As for the argument about copying the UK - i see nothing wrong with implementing policies that have been SUCCESSFUL elsewhere. This is simple common sense. Obviously we should ignore the policy failures of other countries. We are not nor should we aim to be like a North Korea, hermetically sealed off from the rest of the world, stabbing in the dark with hare-brained schemes. If it works, use it. If it doesn't, discard it. This is the essence of globalisation. Let's not go back to De Valera's isolated Ireland of comely maidens and dancing at crossroads. This doesn't mean we are losing our identity either. JB, I have to say you sound like you are carrying a lot of
anger around with you. Anything positive to say? As for
the argument about copying the UK – i see nothing wrong
with implementing policies that have been SUCCESSFUL
elsewhere. This is simple common sense. Obviously we
should ignore the policy failures of other countries. We
are not nor should we aim to be like a North Korea,
hermetically sealed off from the rest of the world,
stabbing in the dark with hare-brained schemes. If it
works, use it. If it doesn’t, discard it. This is the
essence of globalisation. Let’s not go back to De Valera’s
isolated Ireland of comely maidens and dancing at
crossroads. This doesn’t mean we are losing our identity
either.

]]> By: JP http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-928 JP Sun, 04 Jun 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-928 Just a quick observation about Dublin 4. I have lived in D4 for 15 years. In that time I have found that the people who are the worst offenders in the snob stakes are those who arrive from the remotest parts of rural Ireland. The first thing they ditch is the country accent. They cover any trace of country heritage up lest they be thought of as unsophisticated. The native D4 people are, in the main, open, courteous and down to earth and shudder at the antics of the "country boy/girl done well" scrabbling to impress. Its the ultimate joke on our country cousins that the are responsible for the D4 phenomenon that they despise. Just a quick observation about Dublin 4. I have lived in
D4 for 15 years. In that time I have found that the people
who are the worst offenders in the snob stakes are those
who arrive from the remotest parts of rural Ireland. The
first thing they ditch is the country accent. They cover
any trace of country heritage up lest they be thought of
as unsophisticated. The native D4 people are, in the main,
open, courteous and down to earth and shudder at the
antics of the “country boy/girl done well” scrabbling to
impress. Its the ultimate joke on our country cousins that
the are responsible for the D4 phenomenon that they
despise.

]]> By: Deirdre http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-919 Deirdre Thu, 04 May 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-919 While researching a presentation for college on levels of
personal debt in Ireland a few months ago I came across
this website & I have read with interest the majority of
articles & comments. The conclusion I have reached is that
Irish people are aware that this situation we find
ourselves in cannot continue but are quite content to act
as if it can & as the Navajo proverb says “you cannot wake
up a person who is pretending to be asleep”.

I’m also reminded of a quote by Harold Stephens “There is
a great difference between worry and concern. A worried
person sees a problem, and a concerned person solves a
problem”. I do believe you are only worried, show us some
concern, our government & banks will not.

]]> By: Pete http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-913 Pete Tue, 04 Apr 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-913 >we do not have to endure the sudden stop/go characteristics of a country with its own currency I'm sure I remember David writing a few years ago that being in the eurozone would lead Ireland into bigger economic boom-bust cycles, because we would have no control over our interest rates. Now he says the euro "protects" us. Are these views inconsistent? The text-book end of a boom/bust credit cycle is the currency sell-off that Iceland is experiencing. Ireland cannot experience that, because the size and stability of the eurozone does indeed protect us. Which means that the credit boom can continue much longer than it should, until it either: 1. Ends in some other non-textbook way, which will probably be even more painful than the textbook ending. This would justify David's apparently inconsistent views, as the protection of the euro would indeed have caused a bigger boom and bust. 2. Levels out but doesn't bust, thanks to the buffering protection of the eurozone keeping interest rates low and the currency value high despite our excesses. This seems quite plasible to me. 2. Continues for ever. It sounds crazy, but so many crazy things ave happened in the Irish economy in the last few years, I refuse to be surprised any more. JB, I wish Ireland really did closely study the UK when making decisions. It seems to me that Irelands plods along about 15-20 years behind the UK, making all the same mistakes. If we looked at what they did when faced with varous situations, and what did and didn't work, we might avoid some mistakes here. >we do not have to endure the sudden stop/go
characteristics of a country with its own currency

I’m sure I remember David writing a few years ago that
being in the eurozone would lead Ireland into bigger
economic boom-bust cycles, because we would have no
control over our interest rates. Now he says the
euro “protects” us. Are these views inconsistent?

The text-book end of a boom/bust credit cycle is the
currency sell-off that Iceland is experiencing. Ireland
cannot experience that, because the size and stability of
the eurozone does indeed protect us. Which means that the
credit boom can continue much longer than it should, until
it either:

1. Ends in some other non-textbook way, which will
probably be even more painful than the textbook ending.
This would justify David’s apparently inconsistent views,
as the protection of the euro would indeed have caused a
bigger boom and bust.

2. Levels out but doesn’t bust, thanks to the buffering
protection of the eurozone keeping interest rates low and
the currency value high despite our excesses.
This seems quite plasible to me.

2. Continues for ever. It sounds crazy, but so many crazy
things ave happened in the Irish economy in the last few
years, I refuse to be surprised any more.

JB,
I wish Ireland really did closely study the UK when making
decisions. It seems to me that Irelands plods along about
15-20 years behind the UK, making all the same mistakes.
If we looked at what they did when faced with varous
situations, and what did and didn’t work, we might avoid
some mistakes here.

]]> By: JB http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-914 JB Tue, 04 Apr 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-914 Pete,

So, let me get this straight. You want us to study the UK
more closely so we don’t make the same mistakes that they do.

Hmmm. Now, what’s the problem with that statement. Let me
think for a moment.

Oh, yes, I’ve got it.

The UK does everything first.

So that means we can study what they’ve done and learn from
their mistakes. Well, by God, if that doesn’t make us
provincial, I don’t know what does. How can we ever develop
as a nation, how can we ever develop our own intellectual
live if all we can do is “study” what ONE other country does.

In my judgement we should develop our own intellectual life.
And that means thinking for ourselves. Making our own
mistakes and learning from them. Not slavishly following the
UK. Or any other country.

Pete, where are you from? I’ll hazard a guess and say you’re
from Dublin?

They don’t can you Jackeens for nothing you know. (Jack -
from John – meaning John Bull – een – from the Irish suffix
ín – meaning little – giving Jackeen – meaning little
Englishman!!).

One other problem with your statement Pete. It hardly
epitomizes the best qualities of the Irish people. Hardly an
aspiration is it?

]]> By: Tom Farrell http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2006/04/02/hot-money-is-beginning-to-melt-icelands-hardy-economy/comment-page-1#comment-915 Tom Farrell Tue, 04 Apr 2006 00:00:00 +0000 http://501442979#comment-915 So the collective wisdom of this web site is that we are
heading for the mother of all busts after the mother of all
booms because:

1)Our once-off unique position as an open competitive
economy in a much larger slow-growth economic bloc led to
the situation that interest rates were/are inappropriately
low. Europe’s misfortune was Ireland’s gain -> boom created.

2)We fell for the US consumer model hook, line and sinker,
i.e. spend and borrow to the hilt -> bubble created.

3)Rising costs (assets, wages, etc.), lack of real
productive capital investment (R&D, infrastructure,
education), and availability of other low-tax EU locations
has eroded our competitiveness…AND…the larger economies in
EU are finally starting to move (e.g. Ger) which implies
rates will rise -> creates the ‘perfect storm’…bubble
soon-to-be-burst?

So does all of the naval gazing boil down to one simplistic
conclusion, i.e. we will boom as long as the big EU
economies don’t? Seems overly simplistic…even for the
‘dismal science’ if I may say so. I’m none the wiser.

Tom

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