Throughout the 16th century, a monumental mass of stolen gold sailed across the Atlantic from Latin America to Spain. Estimates suggest that Spanish gold stocks were five times greater in 1592 than when Columbus set sail a hundred years earlier. Spain rapidly became the most bling nation on earth.
Had Hello magazine existed in the late 16th century, its spiritual home would have been the gold-embossed cribs of colonial Seville. The Spaniards devised an extraordinary system, which consisted of armed flotillas of up to 40 frigates each, which transported the plundered gold from their Inca colonies.
Once the precious metal was docked in Cadiz, Spain went on the batter, buying up almost everything it could get its hands on. Land prices went through the roof and the nobility started to build bigger and bigger villas, with more ornate bathrooms, ballrooms and dining rooms.
Visitors to Spain were amazed by the opulence. But Spanish chroniclers of the time worried that the gold-rich Spaniards – who had a long tradition of quality tradesmen – were giving up working hard, leaving fields fallow as they indulged their newly refined tastes for imported goods.
It was cheaper to buy from Holland, France or even England than make things at home. Given that the gold supply seemed limitless, the Spaniards could not see the problem. But the gold was disappearing out of Spain to pay for luxuries as quickly as it was coming in. In fact, gold went through Spain like a dose of salts.
However, during the gold period, Spain felt on top of the world and some people made fortunes.
The shipping companies or individual maritime entrepreneurs who braved the seas, organised the flotillas and docked the gold, amassed great wealth. For every ounce of Inca gold they delivered to Spain, they took a cut.
This business created the incentive for them to innovate with boat size and navigational techniques. Up until the late 15th century, boat design had not changed much in centuries, but then the Portuguese started building caravels (from the Arabic word Carib).These were long, narrow-hulled boats with the distinctive three triangular sales. They were built for speed, and more importantly, to carry heavy cargo for long distances. They were ideal for gold.
The Spanish merchants refined the caravels to suit their purposes. Not only did the merchants gain fortunes, but daring ships� captains achieved worldwide fame.
They were all part of the infrastructure which turned gold into money. They were the first global bankers, the alchemists, who by their efforts, turned a pretty metal into a currency which bought all sorts of goodies.
The landlord class in Spain, who swirled sycophantically around the king, also gained enormously. They saw their estates quadruple in value as the gold, when it was turned into ducats, caused a massive increase in the money supply. This drove all prices up. Spain was experiencing a massive injection of credit, not unlike Ireland today, and property prices did what they always do when there is too much money sloshing around: they went up.
Boom-time Madrid became swamped with Dutch, French, Italian and English tradesmen and entrepreneurs keen for some of the action. They took orders, sent them back to Rotterdam, Carcassonne or Norwich, made the stuff for half of what it could be made for in Spain, and took a cut.
The losers were Spanish manufacturers who saw themselves priced out of their own market. Their well-paid, uncompetitive workers eschewed trade for the promised fortune of speculation and exploring or simply just spending the cash that streamed in from the hapless, enslaved Indians of Peru.
As the leading economic historian Peter Bernstein said: ��There was an abundance of metals without any productive development, a rise in prices without any monetary alterations. In short, 16th-century Spain was characterised by a separation between money and merchandise.�
By the end of the 16th century, Spain began to revert to the pastoral backwater it occupied before the gold arrived, except this time without the wherewithal to pay its bills. It experienced repeated financial crises in 1596,1607,1627 and 1647.
Fast forward to today and some of this may sound familiar to you.
Three events last week should make us sit up and read a few history books. Look closely and the experience of colonial Spain is beginning to resemble modern Ireland.
The continued decline of manufacturing Ireland accelerated a little last week with the closure of NEC in Ballivor. If it were not for the multinationals, there would be precious little manufacturing here. On the other hand, the startling profits of AIB and the 23 per cent increase in new car sales in January show that the monetary or credit economy is booming.
Let�s go back to history for a second. In the ancient world, the most valuable commodity was gold. In the 21st century, the most valuable commodity is credit. Credit is a commodity and it�s time we looked at it in this light.
Countries import and export credit. For example, Germany and China export credit, Ireland and the US import credit. It is a commodity like any other.
It is internationally traded, it has a price and it bestows enormous advantages on countries (and people) where it is ample.
However, like gold of old, it is a double-edged sword.
Not enough of it and the country never gets off the starting blocks. Too much of it and the country goes into reverse, inebriated by its excesses.
Now examine the similarities between both ages. Those who import credit, facilitate its distribution and get a cut from this activity are today�s banks. They are the 21st century equivalent of the merchants who plied the Atlantic. Realising that this was a good business, they too have made innovations, not dissimilar to the maritime advances of the old merchants.
In the same way as the purpose of building faster boats was to get as much gold as possible from the Americas to Spain, the aim of financial engineering, equity release, car finance and multiple credit cards is to get as much credit into the economy as possible. The more credit, the greater the return.
In the old days, gold allowed the Spaniards to buy fine clothes, trinkets, ornaments, armour and exotics.
Today, credit allows us to buy fancy cars, slate wet-rooms, shaker kitchens and Neff fridges. Credit drives up prices as far too much money chases far too few goods.
This is particularly evident in property, as it was in colonial Spain.
As prices increase, workers either look for higher wages or leave industry to get on the speculation bandwagon. Real businesses that make real stuff get priced out and eventually close down. As happened in Spain, the credit runs through the country like a dose of salts, leaving inflated expectations and underwhelming ability in its wake.
When we read about the economy here, we are really reading and living in two distinct entities – one is the credit economy, the other the crushed economy.
The credit economy dominates the crushed economy and ultimately squeezes the life out of it through a combination of finance, prices and human psychology. We have seen this down throughout the ages and, although history may not always repeat itself, so far economic history certainly has.









Hi David,
I have been reading your articles about the state of the
property market in Ireland with great interest over the past
few months. One issue that I think that has not been
properly explored is to do with what will happen if there
was a sudden correction in property prices. In particular,
what ramifications will this have for the thousands of
immigrants working in this country? If the Irish Ferries
dispute is anything to go by then we could have a serious
race relations problem on our hand.
At the present time (as has been pointed out by many
commentators) there is a very large number of people working
in the construction and related industries. And I am not
just talking about mortgage brokers; law firms etc. but also
people employed in the Retailing Sector, DIY Stores and The
Spar Generation. Most of the latter are immigrants who are
from Eastern Europe and other Non-EU countries.
If we were to envisage a scenario where activity in the
construction sector was to slow dramatically, there would
suddenly be intense competition between the locals and the
immigrants for the same jobs. We would see many of the
accession state nationals packing up their bags and heading
to greener pastures leaving thousands of empty apartments in
their wake. However this still leaves thousands of Non-EU
nationals (such as Nurses, IT Professionals, Hotel and
Restaurant Workers etc) who have no intention of leaving
Ireland. This is bourn out by the fact that they have been
increasingly buying into the Irish property market in recent
years.
The question is what will happen in such a scenario where
there is a scarcity of jobs and as far as the employers are
concerned they want to hire the people who are willing to
work for the lowest wage. In such a scenario will the
government then go for a Enoch Powell solution and entice
these aliens to leave these shores with some monetary
incentive? I think not!!
Back in 1997 I remember applying for a credit card. At the
time I had an income of around 11k pa which at the time
wasn’t particularly low. I remember getting a letter from
the bank basically telling me to piss off or get a letter
from my employer confirming my wages (this was in the days
when I still got a pay cheque). 6 months later I changed
jobs and got a raise of about 6k on my previous job (though
much of that was down to a lot of freelance work that I did
back then). Despite the fact that at the time none of this
work was permanent I applied out of curiosity to the same
bank and my other bank and was immediately sent out two
credit cards with at that time the generous credit limit of
1k each. In the space of about 12 months between mid 1996
and 1997 the credit situation in Ireland turned on its
head. I remember being stunned at the sheer number of new
cars on the road (back in those days people drove the same
car until it literally keeled over). I remember in those
days that it was very difficult to get credit if you were
on a low income or in unstable employment – or self
employed.
Secondly I think much of the hyper-pushing of credit is
coming from banks/institutions with large UK presences –
and this market is near to, if not at saturation. Those
wishing to squeeze the last bit out of the English speaking
market will turn to Ireland to get that bit more profit.
The fact that the Irish are notoriously accepting of rip-
off merchants (look at the fact that the most expensive
bank is also the one getting the lions share of new
accounts as evidence) is helping them even more.
As for the excesses of the property market: if (and only
IF) there is a crash, by what value will properties fall?
5%? 20%? 40%? And in what areas? My opinion is if this
happens it will not be evenly spread accross the market,
but will be cruelly selective. Ironically, it may well end
up benefitting those most gouged by the property market –
the private tenants. In the cruel world of last in, first
out, the main and only victims could be those who bought
houses most recently – but whose to know how far back this
may extend? IF it happens.
I have pondered what if the property market crash. Where
would all the people who have bought a property to actually
live in go?
If they can’t afford the mortgage repatments and they lose
their job, no matter how hard they try they will not pay
back their credit excesses.
They can’t pay for house, bank left with bad debt. They must
sell their car, garages cant sell new cars, finance guy cant
give loan, house improvements not needed, builders have no
work. The combinations, everytime come back with
catastrophic results. Does no on else with influence see this?
Everyone knows what could, may or will happen, but what is
the solution to allow a slow deflation rather than a large
pop. My only thought is a dictatorship or a Taoiseach with
guts, but also voters who care more about the country’s long
term prospects and not just their own pocket.
Hmm. Thought provoking. The facts must give us pause for
thought. But what to do? What level of control does our
Government really have when we are the most open economy
in the world? And are we not increasingly dependent on
credit not just for luxuries but even for basic needs like
for housing? The following are a list of suggestions as to
ways forward out of our dependence on credit:
We need to:
1)Reduce the price-wage squeeze that is increasingly the
lot of common people(ie small farmers and small businesses
aswell as workers, minority groups and the
unemployed ).Tackle house and land prices, insurance
costs, commercial rates, stealth taxes, outsourcing of
jobs etc.
2)Reduce the shortsighted obsession with competition and
the profit motive, with their need for year on year
improvements in profit margins to please the interests of
shareholders.
3) Move up the value chain, by investing in education,
infrastructure, research and development etc.
4)Conserve, develop and trade on our own natural
resources.
5) Tap into our other great resource: community pride and
power?
6) Focus on the needs of our community, with its aging
population,and the potential of health and quality of life
as fulfilling, equitable and financially secure sectors of
employment?
7) ?
There is a need here for joined up planning,and for
radical reform I think, in certain areas of company,
property and planning law and in Government policy.Am I a
hopeless dreamer? No. Am i a socialist? You bet.
An excellent comparison, showing that some things never
change. I particularly liked the explanation of why banks
continue to force credit on people in such a reckless
manner – importing and selling credit is their core profit-
generating business!
One enormous difference between imported credit and stolen
gold is that credit has to be payed back.
When the gold stopped arriving in Spain, asset prices
plunged and people had to slash their living standards and
re-discover how to do productive work.
When credit stops flowing freely into Ireland, asset
prices and living standards will plunge, but people will
find that no amount of productive work will get them out
of the debt hole they have dug for themselves,
particularly as interest rates will probably be much
higher than now. What will they do? I don’t know, but it
won’t be pretty. And I can’t help noticing that interest
rates are creeping up worldwide, even Japan is talking
about an interest rate rise soon, is this a sign that the
global credit taps are slowly being turned off?
last week a report was published, that said that Ireland had
a lot of workers paid below the EU average.
I wonder what will happen when the debts have to be paid.
A friend of my brothers, a well known basket case
financially speaking would occasionally seek advice on how
to get out of ongoing debt, a good enough job in the civil
service, no financial discipline none the less, cards
always maxed out, loans to clear loans, 25k of unsecured
debt!
I hear today he bought a house.
Adrian.
Similar story in the Irish Indo. A guy with 25K of debt was wondering whether
he should try for a 125% mortgage ( or was there such a thing?) since he
needed to get on the ladder. You really dont need to be Warren
Buffet.
by the way, has anyone noticed that our elites have given up pretending that
they see overpriced houses as an issue anymore. they seemed to be worredi
in 2001 – 150K, or so ago, on average – but no more. Now it is a cause for
celebration that houses are rising, wages are stagnant, and interest rates set
to return to long term normalcy.
Any guess as to why this is?
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